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This Too Shall Pass… The Human Race Shall Overcome the Vi-race COVID-19!

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Author’s Note: Over the past week, family and friends who have heard of the “state of emergency” in California have been calling to ask how we are doing battling COVID-19. There is no “state of emergency” in California, only an order by the governor to stay home so we minimize the chances of spreading the virus. I cannot report firsthand much on how things are going in California except to say schools, universities, sit-down restaurants, malls, retail stores and other establishments have closed. For those who have asked me to write a message in my usual Monday commentary, I can only say this: The dark cloud of coronavirus will soon lift having delivered a dire warning. COVID-19 is a wake call. If we ignore the call, the prophesy in that old Negro spiritual shall gain new meaning: “God gave Noah a rainbow sign. No more rain, viruses next time.”

My deepest concern is will the human race be ready for the Vi-race next me?

Self-quarantine, self-isolation, shelter in place in California

This past Thursday, Governor Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation ordering 40 million Californians to stay put and at home as part of the effort to disrupt and slow down the spread of the coronavirus disease,  a/k/a SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Disease, COVID-19.

Life as we know it has come to a screeching halt in California and from what I hear in most of the Western world.

Gov. Newsom’s order directs workers in energy, food, agriculture and financial services to “their work” but everyone else, “Stay home!”

The order specifically provided “those 65 years and older, and those with underlying health issues, are advised to self-quarantine, self-isolate, or otherwise remain in their homes to reduce the transmission of COVID-19.”

It is social distancing enforced by law.

Naturally, as a perennial 29-year-older, I was not particularly concerned about the “65 years and older” age limit warning, but out of an abundance of caution I decided to go along.

So, here we are in “Camp California”.

Hiding from mean ole Corona V.

There is just no place to run and hide from Corona V, s/he who is invisible and must be feared.

“V” stands for Vengeance. ReVenge of the viruses. Victory of the viruses?

Bill Gates warned us about the revenge of the V Army in 2015.

We blew him off. “Certainly, he meant circuses not viruses?”, we joked.

Gates rhetorically asked, “The next outbreak? We’re not ready. The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.”

“Prophet” Gates’ message was clear: Fear not nuclear annihilation. Fear annihilation by invisible cell-sucking viruses.

We did not listen.

Many other experts have been warning of a coming pandemic for decades. Nobody believed them. “How could an invisible virus bring human civilization to its knees? Impossible!”

Now, we are paying dearly for turning a deaf ear to the ominous warnings of the coming of the first (certainly not the last) 21st century plague in blood, sweat and tears.

So, here I am in self-quarantined in Camp California.

Ruminating philosophically.

Singing the blues.

Listening to the wisdom of good ole Bob Dylan’s 1964 song, “The Times They are A changing.

Come gather ’round people/ Wherever you are
And admit that the waters/ Around you have grown
And accept it that soon/ You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin’/ Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’

Come senators, congressmen/ Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway/ Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt/ Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’/ It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’

The line it is drawn/ The curse it is cast
The slow one now/ Will later be fast
As the present now/ Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’/ And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’.

Yes, indeed. he times they are a-changin’. Life as we know it has changed forever as we now know we are stalked by an army of invisible viruses.

It is time to admit coronavirus has grown.

We better start swimming towards a vaccine or cure, or we’ll sink like a stone.

Trump, senators and congressmen, take heed the curse it is cast. The order – life as we know it — is rapidly fadin’ for the times they are a-changin’.

What is there to do in self-quarantine in Camp California?

For me, two things: Reflect on the human condition and destiny and/or sing the blues.

So, here I am sitting and reflecting on the philosophical issues COVID-19 has raised in my mind and how this invisible enemy has disrupted the lives of billions of people in the world.

My reflection is aided by memes and jokes, funny and tasteless ones, sent to me electronically (I keep strict social distancing) by friends and colleagues to lift my spirits.

One of the biggest philosophical questions I could not figure out was this: “Why is there a run on toilet paper in America and who the hell is hoarding them?”

I quickly found out. “You know who buys up all the toilet paper and hoards them? Assholes.”

But what can I do personally to deal with COVID-19 in self-quarantine?

There was a ready answer for that too. “You know what they say: feed a cold, starve a fever, drink a corona for Coronavirus.”

But there are “so many coronavirus jokes out there, it’s a pun-demic.”

When not reflecting on the philosophical issues raised by COVID-19, I just sing the California Blues on my acoustic guitar.

I love that great B.B. King song, “Why I sing the blues”.

Everybody wants to know/ Why I sing the blues
Yes, I say everybody wanna know/ Why I sing the blues
Well, I’ve been around a long time/ I really have paid my dues…

Well, you don’t have to ask me. I will tell you why I am singing the blues in Camp California. Here are the lyrics to my song:

Do you wanna know why I sing the blues?
I am told to practice “social distancing”
Don’t touch no one with a ten-foot pole
If someone sneezes, run like hell and show them your sole.

That’s why I am singing the blues in Camp California.

Schools, malls, restaurants and gyms are closed
Even the churches, mosques and temples have shut their doors
Telling their people to pray at home
Good Lord Almighty, will you save us all?

That’s why I am singing the blues in Camp California.

The 405 is empty and the 10 looks no better
Give me back the gridlock so I can see somebody
Where have all the Angelinos gone?
Where have all the Angelinos gone?

That’s why I am singing the blues.

The homeless zombie the streets and got nothing to eat
Maybe I will drop them a few boxes of pizza
To ease my conscience
Or should I ignore them to keep my social distance.

That’s why I am singing the blues in Camp California.

The experts say forget a recession, we’re headed for a depression
A million Americans have lost their jobs
Small businesses are ready to fold
And Trump says, “Everything is under control!”

That’s why I am singing the blues in Camp California.

Doctors and nurses their lives are out on the line
Our senators are insider trading making millions
They say it is a coincidence
I say it’s profiteering plain and simple.

That’s why I am singing the blues in Camp California.

But whenever Donald Trump’s opens his mouth, I slip sliding away into the deep end of depression.

Trump tells me and 300 million plus Americans, “Forget about it. It ain’t nothing. It’s just liked the sniffles. You’ll get over it!”

Trump thinks coronavirus is the flu. He said, “Does anybody die of the flu?’ I didn’t know people died from the flu.”

Trump talks about the Chinese virus. He says “it is all under control”.

As of this writing, there are 381, 649 reported coronavirus infections and 16, 558 deaths globally since the first case was reported in China on November 17, 2019.

As Trump dithers and blathers about a coronavirus is under control, as of this writing we have 43,734 infected persons and 553 deaths in America!

In just two weeks, we have over 11 percent of the global infection rate and all indications are it is going to get much worse as hospital are expected to reach theri breaking point in the next week or so.

South Korea with a population of 50 million seems to be on the verge of victory in slowing down the spread of the virus. As of March 17, South Korea reported  only 74 new cases compared to 909 at its peak on 29 February.

What is the South Koreans doing right that we are not doing in the U.S.?

Trump wants to include coronavirus into his reelection playbook as a polarizing issue.

He wants to give coronavirus a nationality, a flag, an ideology and political party affiliation.

But there is no republican, democrat, red state or blue state coronavirus.

There is only the United Armies of Viruses (UAVs).

These invisible enemies do not invade with a flag, a Chinese, Italian, French or American flag.

Asked if he should take responsibility for the failure to disseminate larger quantities of coronavirus tests,  Trump said, “I don’t take responsibility at all.”

In sober reflection I reach out for the wisdom of Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does” and is.

People who say stupid things follow up by doing stupid stuff.

Every day, Donald Trump concocts a deadly brew of half-truths and outright lies in a cauldron of arrogance and ignorance.

He makes nonsensical statements which prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he simply does not have the intellectual candlepower and leadership skills to be the Commander-in-Chief in the War against Invisible Army of Corona V. (Not to be confused with his undisputed leadership of the other Invisible Army of the Knights of… ).

On the wings of Donald Trump’s thoughtless and dumbfounding words, Corona V spreads across the “Home of the Free and Land of the Brave”.

We need a Virusbuster president just like the Ghostbusters. “If there’s something strange in your neighborhood/Who you gonna call? (ghostbusters). If there’s something weird/ And it don’t look good/Who you gonna call? (ghostbusters).

If there is something strange called Coronoa V prowling your neighborhood, who you gonna call?

Not Donald Trump, for sho!

So, here I am in Camp California drowning in an ocean of Donald Trump “stupidioms” (I just coined that word to describe Donald Trump’s COVID-19 idiotic idioms):

“This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” January 22, 2020.

“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” January 30, 2020.

“We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.”  February 10, 2020.

“Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” February 14, 2020.

“There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus.  So, we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” February 23, 2020.

“We have it very much under control in this country.” February 24, 2020.

“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” February 26, 2020.

“So, we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So, we’ve had very good luck.” February 26, 2020.

“And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” February 26, 2020.

“I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” February 26, 2020. February 27, 2020.

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders. February 26, 2020.

“And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.”  March 4, 2020.

“[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” March 4, 2020.

“Well, I think the 3.4% [dead patients worldwide] is really a false number.” March 7, 2020.

“So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” March 9, 2020.

March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”  March 10, 2020.

The philosophical silver lining in COVID 19: My answer to President Ronald Reagan’s timeless question “What could be more alien to the universal aspiration of our people than war and the threat of war?”

Republicans used to have leaders who had vision and a mission. I did not always agree with their vision and mission. But I give credit where it is due.

In 1987, Ronald Reagan stood up and demanded, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”

He was talking about the wall that had separated West and East Berlin since 1961.

I don’t remember much about Reaganomics, Reagan’s Republican Revolution and Reagan’s Star Wars weapons systems.

But I remember the walls that came tumbling down not only in Berlin but throughout the communist world.

But I also remember Reagan’s penetrating observation and question in his 1987 U.N. speech:

In our obsession with antagonisms of the moment, we often forget how much unites all the members of humanity. Perhaps we need some outside, universal threat to make us recognize this common bond. I occasionally think how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world. And yet I ask, is not an alien force already among us? What could be more alien to the universal aspiration of our people than war and the threat of war?

Now, I am ready to answer Reagan’s question and Trump’s too.

The threat to the universal aspiration of our people today is not the illegal alien, the alien with a cone head and oblong eyes, an alien species with plasma guns, unearthly demons, Klingons and Megatrons.

What could be more alien to the universal aspiration of our people than nuclear war and the threat of nuclear war are coronavirus and all the other invisible armies of viruses silently and relentlessly stalking the human race.

These virus armies know no geographical boundaries.

In fact, they will not only bust geographic boundaries but cell membranes, the cell walls and attack each person silently and relentlessly.

They do not care about race, gender, religion, language or age.

They don’t choose between rich and poor, strong and weak.

Their regime is absolutely democratic. “One virus, one (wo)man.”

Their motto: “With malice towards all humans and charity to none.”

They would just as soon take out presidents, kings, queens, billionares and millionaires as they would the homeless and penniless.

They do not discriminate. They are the great equalizers.

So, it is US humans against THEM viruses.

Donald Trump says he has declared a war on Corona V.

No, Corona V has declared war on us, on all humanity.

We are now in a war between humans and viruses.

But we humans are unprepared for the Virus Wars. We prefer to fight the windmills of nuclear war.

Our ignorant and arrogant leaders would rather spend hundreds of billions preparing for a nuclear war when an invisible army of viruses is slipping between the gates and ravaging us in our homes, schools, places of work, worship and entertainment.

Humanity today sails on a ship of fools floating on an ocean of viruses.

So, what do we do?

Is the end of times near? Is it Apocalypse Now?

Who are we as humans in the war against viruses?

Will our ignorance and arrogance protect us from the invisible virus army invading our cells?

Let me wax poetic and answer these questions in the words of T.S. Eliot’s poem, “The Hollow Men”.

We are the hollow men/ We are the stuffed men
Leaning together/Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when/ We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless

The eyes are not here/There are no eyes here
In this valley of dying stars/In this hollow valley
This broken jaw of our lost kingdoms…

This is the way the world ends/ This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper.

If we do not heed the lessons of the current COVID-19 invasion, the world will not end with a nuclear bang but a whimper in hospital beds, in clinics, at home and in the streets.

So far, COVID-19 is winning.

S/he is winning because s/he has other deadly allies that sit not inside the cells of humans but in the hearts of minds of men and women. These allies go by the names Fear, Despair, Ignorance and Arrogance.

Trump said Corona virus is the liberals’ “new hoax”.

Such a deadly mix of ignorance and arrogance spewing out of a man’s mouth could contribute to the deaths of tens of thousands who follow his thoughtless words!

There is a better way.

We can defeat coronavirus and the invisible massing armies of viruses on the invisible horizon.

But we too must amass as ONE HUMAN FAMILY and fight the armies of viruses in the hospitals, in the places of worship, in schools and universities, in restaurants and bars, on the football fields and basketball courts, on land, in the air and at sea.

Our motto: We must hang together and fight as one human family or the virus armies will hang us each separately.

Paraphrasing Dr. Martin Luther King’s admonition for our time:

We must learn to live together, work together and fight together against COVID-19 not only as brothers and sisters but as members of one human family or perish together as passengers on a capsizing ship of fools on an ocean of viruses.

Ruminations in self-quarantine to be continued

The post This Too Shall Pass… The Human Race Shall Overcome the Vi-race COVID-19! appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News/Your right to know!.


Ethiopia Under US, WB Pressure to Sign Colonial Treaty

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March 21 , 2020
By Frank E. Watkins

Ethiopians are hard-working and well-educated people. The Ethiopian diaspora living in the United States “age 16 and older were more likely than individuals in the general US population to participate in the labour force: 74pc versus 64pc,” according to the Migration Policy Institute’s 2014 report.

The report also indicates 12pc of the Ethiopian diaspora age 25 and older have a master’s degree, PhD, or an advanced professional degree. The figure for the US general population is 11 percent.

Considering the rich history and work ethic that Ethiopians are known for, it behooves us to ask why their country is one of the poorest in the world?

The answers are due in equal parts to bad development policies, lack of committed leadership, and hindering international interventions that at times seem to work against the development aspirations of sub-Saharan African countries.

Take domestic issues. For half a century, Ethiopia was under the clutches of leftist autocrats. Property rights were frowned upon, democratic rights were viewed as a luxury Ethiopia could not afford and the free press was branded as the enemy of the people. The market economy was condemned as the source of all greed and evil.

In April 2018, Abiy Ahmed (PhD) burst onto the Ethiopian political scene, taking the mantle of the country’s prime ministership. At 42, he was the youngest African leader, raising doubts in some quarters if he could rise up to the challenge.

Soon after, he rolled out blitzkrieg political reforms at a dizzying speed. On the economic front, he announced a paradigm shift from a developmental state, where the government was the dominant player, to a free market economy where private industries are the engine of growth.

“These are not ordinary times in Ethiopia. Sweeping changes that seemed unthinkable just weeks ago have been announced almost daily since a new prime minister, Africa’s youngest head of government, took office,” Fox News, America’s conservative media powerhouse, reported. A liberal British newspaper, the Guardian, heralded the same view, noting that Ahmed has “earned comparisons to Nelson Mandela, Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama and Mikhail Gorbachev.”

“Ethiopia will have a chance not only to reinvent itself but also to bring a wave of reform and perhaps even democratization to the wider region,” Foreign Affairsassessed Ahmad’s performance in its September 2018 issue. A year later, a Financial Times op-ed piece shared a similar opinion, stating that his reforms are “an object of fascination around the continent. Success could ignite economic change through emulation equivalent to South Korea’s influence on Asia in the 1970s.”

In October 2019, Ahmed won the Nobel Prize for Peace in recognition of his efforts to “achieve peace and international cooperation” and for initiating “important reforms that give many citizens hope for a better life and a brighter future.”

Ethiopia’s prayers for good policy and inspiring leadership seemed answered and all the stars seemed aligned for a transformational change.

The country’s hope for prosperity is anchored in its bold plans for agricultural revolution and industrialisation. This is to be achieved by building a web of irrigation systems and large-scale industrial parks. One of the major obstacles to the country’s aspirations for prosperity is the lack of electricity to pump water into the irrigation systems and power the planned industrial parks.

Ethiopia’s answer to overcome that obstacle is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest dam in Africa that it is building over the Nile River to generate hydropower. Ethiopians see the Grand Dam as a bridge to link their historic glory and their sense of future greatness.

The Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Europe’s leading think tank, seems to nod in agreement.

“Not just as an infrastructure project, but a project of the century, which should pave the way for the mod­erni­sation of the country,” it regarded the dam.

Though Ethiopia is the source of 86pc of the Nile water, and the Dam is built in its sovereign territory, Egypt, Ethiopia’s historic rival, sees the dam as a threat to its national security. Egypt considers Ethiopia’s plan to use the Nile River for her development needs as a “declaration of war” against the people of Egypt. In 2013, the Egyptian cabinet, chaired by then-President Mohammed Morsi, considered several overt and covert actions to stop Ethiopia from building the Grand Dam.

“One of the politicians suggested sending special forces to destroy the dam; another thought of jet fighters to scare the Ethiopians; and a third called for Egypt to support rebel groups fighting the [Ethiopian] government,” the BBC reported.

“If Egypt is the Nile Gift, then the Nile is a gift to Egypt. If it diminishes by one drop, then our blood is the alternative,” President Morsi said, summing up Egypt’s assumed absolute hegemony over the Nile.

Egypt has since softened its “not even one drop of water” stand but still demands Ethiopia must agree to stringent conditions to limit its water usage that are far more stringent than international water laws and equitable water sharing norms allow; reduce the power generation capacity of the Dam; abandon the four to six-year time frame to fill the Dam’s reservoir and instead fill it in 12 to 21 years.

Doing the bidding of Egypt, the United States government and the World Bank threw a dagger at the heart of Ethiopia’s hope for a better life and a brighter future. The United States gave Ethiopia a thinly veiled ultimatum to sign an agreement that it drafted with the World Bank, requiring the poor Sub-Saharan African nation to concede to Egypt’s hegemonic claim over the Nile River. Ethiopia, a nation known to fiercely defend its sovereign rights rejected the pressure.

Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Hafiz, is now portraying Ethiopia as an international pariah that has rejected an international agreement supported by the United States and the World Bank. The Minister stressed the negotiation was “sponsored by the United States and the World Bank” and the agreement was “developed by the American side and the World Bank.”

Citing the United States and World Bank sanctioned “agreement” as an international alibi, Egypt is threatening Ethiopia with war if it refuses to sign the document.

“If Ethiopia is pressured to sign the agreement, it will be a colonial-like agreement both in spirit and substance that will give Egypt uncontested hegemonic power over Ethiopia’s natural water resources,” Jesse Jackson, the American civil rights advocate, wrote for this publication. “History and international law will forever condemn the US government and the World Bank for their role in reviving Great Britain’s 1929 colonial treaty with a thinly disguised veneer and obfuscated legalese to make it look like a 21st-century treaty.”

There is no way to sugar coat this other than to state bluntly that the bedrock of the United States and World Bank intervention is the reincarnation of the 1929 colonial treaty. If the agreement is not unequivocally rejected by the world community, “Ethiopia Could become 21st Century Colony of Egypt”, as Jackson warned.

This is a story not only of water conflicts between two countries but also of systemic international interventions that stand in the way of the development efforts of poor Sub-Saharan African countries. If the United States and the World Bank fail to mitigate, if not eliminate, the negative impact of the draft agreement they have inked without mandate or legitimate authority, the international community must hold them responsible for any damage – financial or otherwise – Ethiopia and the region might suffer.


PUBLISHED ON Mar 21,2020 [ VOL 20 , NO 1038]

The post Ethiopia Under US, WB Pressure to Sign Colonial Treaty appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News/Your right to know!.

Ethiopia Becomes Africa’s First Responder in the War on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Ethiopia has risen to meet the challenge and become Africa’s first responder in the war on COVID-19.
Led by H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia is proposing to the G-20 (20 of the largest economies in the world) a three-pronged approach to deal with the potentially (and in the views of most experts highly likely) devastating effects of the coronavirus crises on African economies and societies.

In the short-term, the proposal is to get as many test kits, masks and protective clothing as possible for all of Africa as part of a robust and aggressive effort to prevent the spread of the virus.

In the long-term, the aim is to get Africa increased budget support, enhanced balance of payment support and debt relief for all of Africa through G-20 financial packages.

It is a bold, timely, forward-looking and manifestly practical proposal.

Ethiopia’s short-term strategy to deal with the COVID-19 crises

On March 15, 2020 H.E. Prime Minster Dr. Abiy Ahmed talked to Jack Ma, Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group to solicit donations of critical medical supplies in anticipation of the COVID-19 invasion of Africa.

Their conversation produced a commitment by the Jack Ma Foundation to deliver vitally needed medical supplies for distribution throughout Africa.

By March 22, Ethiopian Airlines had airlifted from China “5.4 million face masks, kits for 1.08 million detection tests, 40,000 sets of protective clothing and 60,000 sets of protective face shields.”

Each of the continent’s 54 nations will receive 20,000 testing kits, 100,000 masks and 1,000 protective suits in the fight to contain the spread of the virus.

By March 23, Ethiopian Airlines was delivering the supplies to Eritrea, Djibouti, Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopian Airlines is delivering the supplies at one of its most challenging financial moments in its corporate history. It is absorbing the entire cost of this mercy mission.

Watch video here.

I keep asking myself, “How could millions of face masks, detection tests and protective clothing be delivered to critically affected African countries in less than a week from start to finish?”

I believe there are great lessons in leadership to be learned from what PM Abiy and Jack Ma were able to accomplish with lightning speed.

  1. African leaders need to think outside the box when their countries are facing existential threats.

PM Abiy did not go to the traditional international aid agencies snarled in bureaucratic red tape to ask for lightning fast emergency assistance. He thought outside the box to save Africa and Ethiopia. He picked up the phone and called his friend Jack Ma to get immediate action.

Would he have gotten the same response if he had called the U.S. Secretary of State or the British Foreign Secretary or someone at the European Union’s External Action Service? I doubt it.

Let’s face it and be honest. How many in the Trump administration would be interested in saving 54 “shit hole countries” in Africa by airlifting millions of masks, tests and protective clothing? Trump talks about coronavirus being under control and life getting back to usual by April 12 as the number of infections and deaths soar.  In just two weeks, the U.S. has nearly 13 percent of the global infections!

I wish I was the fly on the wall listening to PM Abiy and Jack Ma talking about emergency delivery of medical supplies.

PM Abiy: “Listen Jack. Hear me good. Africa is facing a threat like no other. COVID-19 could devastate the continent in no time. I need your help to defend all Africa before the invisible Army of COVID-19 slips through our borders. I need your help NOW, not tomorrow, not next week.”

Jack Ma: “Not a problem. When can you send your plane to pick up the supplies?”

PM Abiy: “How about tomorrow?

Jack Ma: “Done!”

PM Abiy: “Thanks, Jack.”

How else can one explain the breakneck speed with which supplies were delivered?

African leaders need to learn to make friends not only with national leaders but also key global leaders of industry and foundations. The world has changed. African leaders must wake up and adapt. Make friends with the likes of Jack Ma, Bill Gates and the other Foundation leaders. What has been learned today is that when the going gets tough, the likes of Jack Ma will get Africans through the tough times faster and in a more timely manner than any government can.

It is like the old song, “I am gonna make it with a little help from my friends.”

  1. PM Abiy demonstrated how Medemer philosophy can bring all Africans together against a common enemy.

What amazed me the most is the fact that PM Abiy did not call Jack Ma to ask him for medical supplies for Ethiopia only. I brood over this moral question as I write this piece: Would I even consider turning over a small batch of the medical supplies Jack Ma sent over to my other African brothers and sisters or will I keep it all for my Ethiopian brothers and sisters?

To be perfectly honest, I think I would fail that moral test miserably.

I will be honest. If it were up to me, I would call up Jack and say, “Help me save my people.” My thinking would probably be, “Let the other African leaders fend for themselves. I am responsible only for my own people.”

PM Abiy manifestly believes saving Ethiopia alone from COVID-19 would not be possible. COVID-19 knows no borders. There is no wall anyone can build around Ethiopia to keep out the Coronavirus Army. No amount of medical supplies could save Ethiopia alone.

I realized why PM Abiy wanted an African Maginot Line, not an Ethiopian one, to keep out the Coronavirus Army.

In his Nobel lecture, PM Abiy said:

Growing up, my parents instilled in me and my siblings, an abiding faith in humanity. Medemer resonates with the proverb, “I am my brother’s keeper. I am my sister’s keeper.” [There is] a saying shared in many African languages, which means, “For you to have a peaceful night, your neighbor shall have a peaceful night as well.”

When PM Abiy asked Jack Ma for help, he understood the only way we can fight and win against the Coronavirus Army is if we adopt the motto, “Yes, I am my African brothers’ and sisters’ keeper.”

For Ethiopia to be defended from the curse of COVID-19, all of Africa must be defended from COVID-19. Indeed, the whole human race.

That is the quintessence of Medemer for me in the war against COVID-19: ONE Ethiopia for ALL Africa. ALL of Africa for ONE Ethiopia.

I am so proud of PM Abiy. Ethiopians are blessed to have a leader who looks out not only for Ethiopia but all of Africa.

  1. In fighting COVID-19, we need African leaders that see Africa not as 54 states but as ONE continent with 54 states.

We need African leaders who see Africa’s fate and destiny in the same way Dr. Martin Luther King saw the destiny of humanity:

In a real sense all life is inter-related. All men are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly. I can never be what I ought to be until you are what you ought to be, and you can never be what you ought to be until I am what I ought to be…

In a real sense, All Africans are interrelated. Whatever affects Africa will inevitably affect Ethiopia.

Whatever affects Ethiopia will inevitably affect Africa.

Ethiopia and Africa, Africa and Ethiopia are tied in a single garment of destiny. They will sink or float together.

It reminds me of John Donne’s poem, “No Man is an Island.”

I say, no African country is an island.

Paraphrasing Donne’s poem:

No African country is an island entire of itself; every country
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main;
if a country be washed away by the sea, Africa  
is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as
well as any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man’s death in Africa diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind in Africa.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the coronavirus bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

  1. A leader with strategic thinking skills could anticipate emerging problems and act proactively and preventively 

There is an old saying, “A stitch in time saves nine.” The metaphor is intended to suggest it is better to act or deal with problems immediately, because if you wait and deal with them later, things will get worse and the problems will take longer to deal with.

What PM Abiy and Jack Ma tried to do was nip the spread of the COVID-19 threat in the bud, in its infancy, before the full invasion, not sit around in Lala Land saying, “It’s all under control.”

Although Africa has 1.2 billion people, as of this writing 46 African states have reported a total of 3,426 positive cases and 94 deaths, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

We have over 320 million people in America.

“My president” Donald Trump, who lives at the White House in Washington, D.C. when he is not on exoplanet Gliese 581c, says “it is all under control and all will be back to business as usual by April 12.”

As of this writing (today), as Trump dithers and blathers about a coronavirus under control, the U.S. has 141,732 coronavirus cases and 2,471 deaths.

It is sad that Trump is more interested in saving his reelection chances than American lives. C’est la vie!

Never in my wildest imagination would I have thought Ethiopia will teach a lesson to America in anything, least of all control of a global epidemic.

The great Bob Dylan was right in his song, “The Times they are A-changin.’

The curse it is cast/The slow one now
Will later be fast/ As the present now
Will later be past/ The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’

The Coronavirus curse is cast.

Ethiopia always the slow one, always the last one, is today the first one, the first responder, the fastest one in Africa to lead the life and death struggle  in the war against coronavirus!

  1. Ethiopian Airlines, the New Spirit of Africa, “Africa’s Air Force in the War on Coronavirus”, spreads its wings to protect the continent.

I am so proud of Ethiopian Airlines, its leadership, the pilots, mechanics and cabin crew. They are the best. Skytrax 2019 World Airlines Awards says Ethiopian Airlines is the “Best Airline in Africa” for the third consecutive year.

Ethiopian Airlines is an independent corporation that does not receive a penny from the government budget.

I have met and discussed the glorious history and future prospects of the airline with CEO Tewolde Gebre Mariam (no relation) when I visited Ethiopia in February. A couple of weeks ago, Ethiopian Airlines sent an all-female crew to Washington, D.C. on “Women’s Day”. I wrote a piece in celebration of that extraordinary event which I hope to share soon.

What is so amazing to me is the fact that Ethiopian Airlines undertook the task of distributing the medical supplies of all African countries with out asking a penny in return from any African country. These are extremely hard times for the airlines industry globally and Ethiopian is no exception. But Ethiopian Airlines was more interested in saving human lives than saving its bottom line. I am so proud of them!

I take my hat off to Ethiopian Airlines!

Ethiopia’s long-term strategy to deal with the economic and social fallout of the COVID-19 crises

On March 24, 2020, PM Abiy proposed a three-point plan to the G-20 to proactively deal with the inevitable the economic and social fallout of the coronavirus crises in Africa.

The first prong of the plan is an “Africa Global COVID-19 Emergency Financing Package.” This proposal would tackle head on the crushing USD 44 billion interest payment African countries are carrying today on their outstanding loans, which exceeds the continental budget for all health care expenses. The proposed financial relief plan would include USD 150 billion for increased budgetary support from the World Bank and balance of support payments from the International Monetary Fund. It would also require trade financing, working capital support, etc. from the International Finance Corporation.

The second prong consists of a Global Health Emergency Package which would engage the World Health Organization in strengthening the public health sector in Africa by increasing emergency preparedness and financing of health equipment purchases by the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and malaria.

The third prong proposes writing off of all interest payment to government loans, partial debt write-off for low-income countries and conversion of the remaining debt into long term low interest loans with 10 years grace period before payment. Moreover, all debt repayments will be limited to 10% of the value of exports.

Africa’s #2 enemy today, after coronavirus, is crushing foreign debt

The total amount of external debt for the continent is estimated at USD $417bn.

Nearly one-half of all sub-Saharan African countries are said to be on the verge of insolvency unable to service their debts and with little change of paying it all.

The World Bank has classified 18 African countries as at high risk of debt distress, where debt-to-GDP ratios surpass 50%.

PM Abiy’s three-point plan is both a wake up call for all African countries of an impending doom catalyzed by the coronavirus crises and a clarion call to the G-20 that without their help 1.2 billion people will likely face death, destruction and hardship of unimaginable magnitude.

The handwriting is on the wall.

African leaders should rally behind PM Abiy and aggressively push the three-point plan before the G-20.

The alternative is to watch Africa careening towards the cliff like a runaway train.

In May 2018, I wrote a prophetic commentary entitled, “Ethiopia Shall Rise!” noting, “A new day is dawning over the horizon and Ethiopia is rising. Let us all rise and shine in the Land of 13-Months of Sunshine.”

I am so proud Ethiopia is rising and shining over all of Africa by becoming the first responder when Africa is about to go into triage.

I am so proud Ethiopia is taking leadership for the continent’s long-term viability by proposing a three-point plan to deal with the inevitable economic and social fallout of the coronavirus crises.

Above all, I am so proud Ethiopia is teaching the world, “I am my brother’s keeper. I am my sister’s keeper. For you to have a peaceful night, your neighbor shall have a peaceful night as well.”

For Ethiopia to win the war against coronavirus, all Africa – indeed the human race —  must win the war against coronavirus.

Thank you, PM Abiy.

Thank you CEO Jack Ma and the Jack Ma Foundation.

Thank you, Ethiopian Airlines, “Africa’s Air Force in the War on Coronavirus”.

 

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The Economic Impact of the Coronavirus on the Ethiopian Economy:  Some Suggestions to Deepen the Economic Stabilization Package

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By: Zerihun Gudeta Alemu (alemu_zerihun@yahoo.co.uk)
28 March 2020

  1. Introduction

Every media outlet we tune into these days is giving coverage to the coronavirus pandemic. This is good. It helps broaden peoples’ awareness of the virus. One could argue that this is not enough though. Existing efforts must be revamped and where possible new alternative information diffusion methodologies explored. There are millions more out residing in far distant places (physical and digital media-wise) with little or no information about the virus. Further, much is desired from the media houses (mainstream and social) to improve on the content of the information they are disseminating. At times it is disappointing to see that they are excessively dwelling on information that could be accessed cheaply from a number of dedicated media websites. I think more time should be devoted to the dissemination of knowledge than discussions about confirmed cases, new infections, number of deaths, etc. (Even my eight year old son Eebbaa could access this online).

The menace of the virus is not confined to peoples’ health alone. It is multidimensional (social, cultural, political, and economic to mention a few). It is scary to realize that its economic contagion effect is spreading as fast as the spread of the virus. I expect the same is true with other aspects of social life per se. They may seem less important in the first phase of the pandemic because protecting lives comes first. However, failure to appreciate and keep abreast of developments in other dimensions could cost us dearly now and in the aftermath of the pandemic. I wish experts in these fields also share their perspectives. Here, I attempt to make my two cents contribution on what I think would be the possible economic impact of the virus and proffer some suggestions (drawing from experiences elsewhere) that may be helpful to minimize the economic impacts of the pandemic.

So far, affected countries have implemented various types of measures to combat the spread of the virus. Some have already become household names – ‘social distancing, ‘lockdowns’, shutdowns, etc. In Ethiopia, ‘social distancing’ is the one that is currently being promoted. One exception is in the Tigray region; it is relatively a bit ahead of the curve. It imposed a 15-day region-wide state of emergency on the 26th of March. It combines social distancing with restrictions on the intra-state movement of people. In general, judging by its implementation, people are questioning if a voluntary social distancing approach would work for Ethiopia on sociocultural grounds. I think, it is an issue better left to the experts in the field for in-depth insight. Nevertheless, follow-up action is needed (if not already loading). As is done elsewhere, the government could deploy law enforcement agencies to enhance the effectiveness of social distancing. Or it could be elevated to the next higher relatively stringent containment measure – a ban on intrastate and interstate movement of people and goods to align it with that of the region of Tigray or maybe something even higher.

 

  1. Economic Impacts

The focus of economists on the matter has evolved. If my memory serves me right, in February and the better part of March, when the financial contagion effect of the virus became visible (e.g. the security markets tumbled globally), the priority in unaffected economies was protecting sectors exposed to developments in China and other affected countries (e.g. trade, finance, and tourism relations). As a result, more or less, a sector-driven approach was promoted to insulate these sectors from external shocks. Fast forward to mid-March, when the virus spread to almost all countries and country-specific measures to contain the virus begun to emerge, the focus broadened. Now, it is no longer about insulating economies to external shocks. It is rather about saving economies from collapsing.

In response to the above-mentioned developments, policy discussions morphed to what is now devising local and global response actions to support economic stimulus packages suited to needy countries’ circumstances. The depth and breadth of the stimulus package have varied from country to country depending on their respective policy spaces. In general, they aimed, in a very simplified jargon of economists, at minimizing the direct effect of the virus on the foundations of economic activities i.e. production, distribution and consumption. This is to ensure that the damages to these activities do not translate into massive job, income and consumption losses (indirect effects). This entails keeping businesses afloat and protecting the disposable income of vulnerable households.

In the context of Ethiopia, according to my reading, the focus so far has been more on administrative measures to contain the spread of the virus and less on economic policy interventions. This is understandable. The country does not have sufficient policy buffer to fall back on to which it can deploy to mitigate impacts.

I think while waiting for assistance from the global community, candid discussions must be in order involving the stakeholders – the government, the private sector, think-tank groups and others- to come up with appropriate/feasible local response actions. Lessons learned from the experiences of other affected countries point to the application of various types of interventions. They are mentioned in the paragraphs that follow. Where applicable, views are expressed if it is possible to localize the said interventions considering Ethiopia’s current economic situations.

On the fiscal policy front, broadly speaking, a wide range of fiscal policy measures have been implemented by affected countries. They included wage subsidies, tax relief, cash transfers, income support to laid-off workers, the extension of tax deadlines, extension of loan maturity, etc. Ethiopia does not have the luxury of such choices for the simple reason that it does not have a fiscal buffer. The economic stabilization package unveiled on the 27th of March is in support of this. It lacks depth and coverage compared with what we have seen from other countries with similar macroeconomic fundamentals and exposure to the pandemic.

There are only two fiscal policy measures in the stabilization package. The first relates to direct support to the health sector. It provided tax exemptions for the importation of equipment and material used in the containment of the virus. The second required the Revenue Authority to expedite tax refunds. I was expecting to see together with the second instruction to the Ministry of Finance to expedite the settlement of pending bills owed to the private contractors for supplying goods and services to the government. Maybe it is less of a concern in Ethiopia?

Quick processing of company tax refunds and payment of pending bills are some of the low hanging fruits that most low-income countries have considered to improve cash flows of businesses. Pending bills are becoming important contributors to growth in domestic debt arrears in many of the highly indebted countries. Maybe this is because most policy dialogues on debt management issues have so far focused on external than domestic debt. Some African countries are seeking assistance from the International Financial Institutions (IFS), as part of the emergency assistance package, to pay tax refunds and pending bills. Maybe this is an avenue the authorities could explore to free up resources for use elsewhere.

Another important area to explore is to reprioritize fiscal expenditures (especially capital expenditure) to free up resources to support the stimulus package. I take cognizant of the fact that Ethiopia is under the IMF/WB program. Ethiopia should learn from other countries that are in the IMF/WB program as Ethiopia but managed to quickly put together a raft of fiscal stimulus measures. Some did it by juggling expenditure items around. Therefore, while waiting for financial inflows from the international community, which may take time and may not be as fungible as one might expect, Ethiopia should initiate (if not done already) negotiation with the lenders to delay some of the agreed reform actions that might not be attained (anyway) if current situations persist. In the meantime, it could embark on a fiscal expenditure implementation audit to identify uncommitted/underutilized funds lying around that could be diverted to the fiscal stimulus package.

Yet another area to explore to create fiscal space is to take advantage of the plunge in the international price of crude oil. It fell from USD60 a barrel three months ago to about USD22 today, a 47 percent decline. This is equivalent to the oil import bill saving of not less than USD1.3 billion. I think, Ethiopia should not allow a 100 percent pass-through of this windfall gain to the consumer. It should rather see to it that a significant percentage of the gain finds its way to boost government revenue so that it could be accessed if need be to support the economic stimulus package.

On the monetary policy front, most central banks in affected countries, with sufficient monetary policy spaces, have responded with accommodative monetary policies. They lowered the cost of borrowing for MSMEs (e.g. by lowering policy rates) and/or injected liquidity into the system (e.g. by lowering cash reserve ratio). We have also seen some central banks taking important preemptive actions. They applied various mechanisms to respond to the possible surge in the demand for credit on the one hand and to address difficult financial conditions on the other. In the case of the former by creating funds dedicated to increasing credit supply to curb the possible credit-crunch dynamics – a situation where banks not availing credit at the same time as the demand for credit increases. In the case of the latter (i.e. difficult financial conditions), they introduced innovative financing mechanisms such as providing credit guarantees to support the cash flow of affected businesses and/or allow needy businesses to refinance/roll over maturing debts.

The odds are stacked against Ethiopia. Inflation is already in double-digit. This is giving the National Bank a limited room to maneuver to introduce an accommodative monetary policy as others did (i.e. policy rate, minimum reserve, and open market operation). Inflation is expected to surge further caused by supply and value chain disruptions. Furthermore, liquidity in the banking system is already in a precarious state. Analysis points to the fact that it is a cumulative effect of neglect by the NBE of its prudential guidelines.

The economic stabilization package talks about availing Birr 15 billion liquidity for the private banks to provide debt relief and to support customers in need. For the records, this is not the first time National Bank injected liquidity into the system. The last time it did the same was a few months ago. At the time, it was meant to bail out banks failing to meet the 15 percent liquidity ratio threshold. Maybe it has a wrong signaling effect. It might suggest that if situations don’t improve or things get rough in the sector, the NBE would take the unconventional monetary policy route. This is the least the market needs during such a difficult time. The National Bank must give utmost priority to keeping the banking industry in shape. Otherwise, with liquidity challenges looming and commercial banks struggling to stand on their own feet, additional liquidity injections alone would not achieve the intended targets.

 

  1. Conclusion

In summary, minimizing the economic contagion effect of the pandemic is an area that warrants urgent attention. Unfortunately, Ethiopia lacks the policy spaces needed to organize an effective domestic response action/economic stimulus package to minimize the economic impact of the pandemic. The priority of the stimulus should be to ensure not only that the direct effects of the pandemic on production, distribution and consumption are minimized; but also that they do not translate into significant losses in employment, income and consumption. The intended beneficiaries of such an economic stimulus package must be businesses and vulnerable households. The following are areas that authorities could explore to revamp the government’s economic stabilization package announced on the 27th of March: reprioritize the budget, capitalize on oil price windfall gain, and leverage on funds anticipated to come from international financial institutions and other donors.

So long!

 

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Ethiopia does not need Egypt’s permission to start filling GERD

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March 30, 2020
By Mahemud Tekuya

The Blue Nile hydropower dam has been constructed in accordance with international legal principles and Ethiopia has the right to make it operational.

In an apparent fit of pique at Ethiopia’s refusal to sign on to its terms, on 28 February the U.S. Treasury Department warned Ethiopia not to start filling and testing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without an agreement with Sudan and Egypt

In addition to expressing concerns about dam safety, it said:  “Consistent with the principles set out in the DOP, and in particular the principles of not causing significant harm to downstream countries, final testing and filling should not take place without an agreement.”

But does international law, including the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP), require an agreement for filling dams like the GERD? It does not seem so.

Principles

Considering the first filling and testing of the GERD as parts of the construction, Ethiopia has said that it will start filling the dam with or without an agreement. Egypt rejects this, stating that “Ethiopia violates the article No. 5 of …[DoP], which stipulates that all three countries shall reach an agreement on the rules of filling and operating the dam before starting the process of filling the reservoir with water.”

This is a stretch and contravenes the DoP, which does not say that the parties “shall reach on an agreement before” Ethiopia starts filling the dam. Instead, it states that “The three countries, in the spirit of cooperation, will utilize the final outcomes of the joint studies…to agree on guidelines and rules on the first filling of GERD which shall cover all different scenarios, in parallel with the construction of GERD.”

One may dispute Ethiopia’s position and argue that first filling and testing is not part of the construction as striking a deal on the first filling is impossible after filling has begun. But, even assuming for the sake of argument that is valid, Ethiopia can still legally fill the dam without an agreement.

The DoP states only that the three countries will use studies to agree on the first filling and annual operation of the dam. That is why they have been negotiating since 2015. But what if they fail to agree on the studies?  The DoP is silent and did not address this scenario. In other words, nothing in the DoP prohibits Ethiopia from filling and testing the GERD, even if the DoP commitment was to agree on “first filling.”

After the Permanent Court of International Justice (PCIJ) landmark decision on the lotus case in 1927, it has been a longstanding principle of international law that “that which is not prohibited is allowed.”

Indeed, as advocated by proponents of natural law theory, this presumption is reputable if a given action or inaction, regardless of its source (state consent or other norms), is prohibited by international law. As demonstrated below, there is no international law prohibiting Ethiopia from filling the GERD without an agreement.

Precedent

True, under international law, states are required to take all appropriate measures to prevent and mitigate significant transboundary harm to other states. But the nature of the obligation is due diligence which requires states to take only reasonable actions. Due diligence means there is an obligation of conduct, rather than an obligation to take action that guarantees non-harm will result, for instance, by signing a preliminary agreement. This is shown by legal precedents.

In the Lake Lanoux arbitration case between France and Spain, in ruling against Spain’s claim that “the exclusion of the French project required the preliminary agreement of the two Governments and that in the absence of such agreement [France] could not have freedom of action to undertake the works,” the tribunal concluded: “The rule that states may use the hydraulic power of international waterways only if a preliminary agreement between states concerned has been concluded cannot be established as a customary rule or, still less, as a general principle of law.”

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) also confirmed the tribunal’s decision in its 2010 judgment in the Pulp Mills Case between Uruguay and Argentina. In deciding whether Uruguay was entitled to proceed with the construction and commencement of the manufacturing operations on the River Uruguay after having failed to reach an agreement with Argentina, “the court concluded that there was nothing that prevents Uruguay from doing so.” The court explained that there was nothing that alters the rights and obligations of Uruguay, including the right to implement the project as its sole responsibility, since the period for negotiation has expired.

In both cases, the justification behind ruling against the need for preliminary agreement is that a ruling otherwise would hinder the state’s “right to act alone as a consequence of unconditional and discretionary opposition of another state. This is to admit a right of consent or a veto right, which at the discretion of state paralyzes another state’s exercise of territorial competence.”

Therefore, under international law, including the DoP, an agreement is not a precondition and Ethiopia can start filling and testing the GERD as planned without a deal.

Process

But unilateralism does not mean acting irresponsible, let alone illegally. Since the beginning of the GERD project in 2010, Ethiopia has taken various measures to prevent significant harm to the downstream countries, thus meeting its international obligations and showing concern for its neighbors.

Ethiopia conducted transboundary impact studies; initiated a tripartite committee consisting of experts from the three countries, and established an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) comprising ten members, six from the three countries (two from each) and four international experts. Ethiopia also submitted all 153 design and study documents of the GERD to the IPoE.

In June 2013, after a rigorous review of the documents and several site visits, the IPoE release its final report. The report, reaffirming the benefits of the GERD to the three countries, confirmed and “appreciated” that the design and construction process of the dam is in line with “a number of international standards, Codes and Guidelines…” The IPoE also recommended the three countries conduct two studies: one on hydrological modeling and the other on the impact of GERD on Sudan and Egypt.

While international law allows Ethiopia to conduct transboundary impact studies by itself and report the finding to Sudan and Egypt, Ethiopia agreed to joint studies and established a Tripartite National Committee (TNC) as a mechanism to conduct the two studies.

Later, the TNC decided international consultants would carry out the studies, and hired two French firms, BRLi Group and Artelia to carry out the studies. However, when the studies started, Egypt apparently insisted that the baseline data to determine the impact should be its current uses of the Nile waters and even reportedly suggested the exclusion of Sudan from the GERD negotiations.

Practice

After the TNC process ran aground, Ethiopia agreed to establish a new National Independent Scientific Research Group (NISRG) to develop scenarios on the filling and annual operation of GERD. However, instead of refining and agreeing on the work of NISRG, Egypt submitted unacceptable proposals in August 2019 and later internationalized the GERD issue, with the U.S. and World Bank involved in the negotiation as observers.

Many Ethiopian think that Egypt, using the U.S. and the World Bank, wanted to impose unjust colonial treaties on Ethiopia. No doubt that coming to the U.S. was historic wrong on Ethiopia’s part, but the fact that it agreed to the process shows the extent to which Addis Ababa is going to perform its due diligence obligation of preventing significant harm on Egypt and Sudan.

Although a way forward is absent thus far because of Egypt’s insistence to maintain its claimed “historical rights”, Ethiopia is likely to continue to undertake all necessary measures in good faith to prevent significant harm on Egypt and Sudan.

The concern about dam safety can also be addressed under the due diligence obligation detailed above. As noted, under international law, Ethiopia is required to undertake a transboundary impact study and notify the outcome to Sudan and Egypt. But Ethiopia went beyond this and established the IPoE, NTC, and NISRG. The three countries have already recognized and appreciated these measures in the DoP. Since ensuring dam safety is a continuous process, Ethiopia should in good faith continue to take all related measures throughout the lifespan of the GERD.

 

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THE GREAT ADWA VICTORY HANDBOOK: CALL FOR CHAPTER RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS

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By Mammo Muchie

I: Introduction

The Adwa Victory has a significance as the maker of all the colonized world to resist colonialism globally. We need to use the next 125 Adwa Great African Victory celebration to become a historic milestone to make all Africans to become change-makers and game changers. The Adwa Great African Victory will be 125 years on March 2, 2021.  We need the great Adwa African Victory to continue, as now more than ever, Africans need to look back and appreciate what brought them victory in order to go forward to achieve unity to end finally all the divisive colonial relics. We have founded the Adwa Great African Victory Association(AGAVA) to celebrate the coming 125 Adwa Victory Anniversary with squares, museum, parks, heritage sites, libraries, schools, scholarships, universities, statues, films and a handbook to be translated and published in different languages.

II: Background

The battle fought, at the Northern Ethiopian town of Adwa by Ethiopia in 1896 against invading Italian forces is one of the most powerful episodes of resistance to the scramble for Africa.  Ethiopia fought the battle under the leadership of Emperor Menelik II and won the most historic and decisive victory. The significance of the battle is that it was the first successful African campaign against European colonial aspirations. In this respect the African victory in Adwa served as a beacon of hope and source of confidence to people of every colonised region in the world, irrespective of colour and creed. Adwa is an important point of convergence for the entire African continent in its fight against invasion and subjugation.

Adwa is one of the most well documented events in African history. It was a well-deserved victory, not favoured by chance but earned through competent leadership, meticulous planning, intelligent strategy, and sheer military might over the invading forces. Adwa was the culmination of a typical European colonising attempt, beginning by diplomacy followed by manipulations in treaty-documents. The end result was turned upside down only because of the military capability and diplomatic acumen of Ethiopian leadership.

The battle of Adwa attracted international attention owing to the media campaign (which created international support in Ethiopia’s favour), orchestrated by Menelik, through carefully chosen experts such as the Swiss engineer Alfred Ilg who played the role of Menelik’s advisor and ambassador in Europe and the French freelance journalist Casimir Mondon-Vodailhet playing Menelik’s unofficial press agent who created the image of ‘Africa’s Christian Monarch’ for him. The Emperor and his Queen apparently lead the army in person (or cleverly propagated so), which partly was responsible for the overwhelming popular support the campaign commanded. This had been a practice un-heard of in Africa: image building of the leadership and war as an opportunity for consolidation of internal political power.

Ethiopia fought the battle, with modern arms and ammunition handled by well-trained men, guided by meticulous military strategy, the knowledge of which send a signal to prospective colonisers that Africa is able to resist and the continent is learning to use the European warfare-tactics against its own inventors. Hence Adwa marked the beginning of the end of colonialism.

III: Some Thematic topics for the Research Papers on Adwa Great Victory

The Adwa Great African Victory Association (AGAVA) proposes to bring out a commemorative issue, a handbook on the Adwa victory. The edited volume would focus on, but would not restrict to the following topics.

  • Bringing to light, the significance of the battle of Adwa in the broader Pan African context, in concrete terms
  • History of the Adwa battle, especially bringing to context contribution of African and Non-African individuals towards the victory
  • Thoughts as to whether the battle of Adwa has received deserving research attention as a ‘beacon of hope and source of confidence’ to people of every colonised region in the world, irrespective of colour and creed; and if not the reasons thereof
  • Thoughts as to whether the Adwa victory has received deserving acknowledgement within the African continent especially within Ethiopia: Critical appraisals, reasons, justification and recommendations for course correction
  • Review of contemporary and subsequent international reporting about the battle and its impact on the international African diaspora as well as among non-African people towards a change in opinion and outlook on Africa and Africans.
  • Review of academic literature on Adwa bringing out differential historic interpretations and their implications to Africa, Europe and elsewhere.
  • The importance of the Adwa Victory and its lessons in the 21st

High quality chapter contributions are invited from contributors across the world. The edited volume will be published by a prominent international publishing house and will be circulated worldwide.

IV:  Deadlines for Abstract and Paper Submission

Contributors are requested to send a chapter proposal / extended abstract of not more than 2000 words along with a detailed CV to Prof. Mammo Muchie by May 25, 2020. The full papers have to be submitted by the latest on 15 September,2020.

Please  kindly send the abstracts by email to: mammo.muchie2019@gmail.com

NB:   The AGAVA executive members and guest editors will do the main peer review. Historians and those who have written on Adwa Battle are most welcome also to join the review process.

www.sarchi.org

https://www.easannet.com/mammo-muchie/

https://nesglobal.org/adwa124/

 

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US should adopt a Marshall Plan for Ethiopia

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BY AUBREY HRUBY, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

Over the last decade Ethiopia has sustained some of the highest growth rates in the world — averaging nearly 10 percent yearly growth since 2008. As its economy boomed, so did its population, becoming the second largest in Africa, behind only Nigeria, with a labor force that doubled in the last 20 years.

Located in the heart of the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s recent story stands in stark contrast to its neighbors in Sudan or Somalia. While civil and political unrest has not fully subsided and could increase in the lead-up to elections in August, Ethiopia has caught the eye of foreign countries and companies. It is one of the few remaining untapped telecommunications markets (two licenses are planned for award in April), and China and the Gulf region have invested billions, including big ticket projects like the China-backed $3.4 billion Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway.

With Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reforms opening the door for increased United States engagement, the new Development Finance Corporation (DFC) announced plans to invest $5 billion in the next 3-5 years to counter Chinese influence and promote private-sector reform. As DFC launches into Ethiopia, they should look to lessons from the Marshall Plan to inform this new big push in American development finance.

In the lead up to DFC’s announcement, there has been considerable deepening U.S. government engagement in Ethiopia. In 2018, after the launch of Prosper Africa, the President’s Advisory Council on Doing Business in Africa visited Ethiopia as one of the four countries to focus on improving U.S. trade relations. In February, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Ethiopia during his first Sub-Saharan Africa trip as Secretary, and promised increases in aid and a focus on growing the private-sector. In further recognition of Ahmed’s reforms, the Millennium Challenge Corporation announced that Ethiopia, previously ineligible, was selected for a threshold program currently underway; yet another avenue by which the U.S. will look to support private-sector growth and reform.

Given the goals of U.S. investment in Africa, the Marshall Plan serves as a useful precedent for effectively increasing U.S. and local private sector investment and shoring up democracy and security. The Marshall Plan, passed in 1948 to send foreign aid to Europe in an attempt to limit Soviet influence following WWII, ultimately re-built Europe along pro-market lines. The stated goal of the Marshall Plan is a near perfect analogy to the current administration’s desire to curb Chinese influence in Africa. Through the programs created as a result of the plan, the U.S. provided dollars to European countries to purchase necessary food, machinery and industrial commodities, mobilized technical assistance to improve productivity, and offered guarantees to de-risk investments by U.S. firms.

Based on the success of the Marshall Plan, the DFC and the broader U.S. government should consider the following three recommendations for Ethiopian engagement: prioritize productivity, mobilize U.S. private sector expertise, and address foreign exchange (forex) constraints, while committing to sustained interaction and investments.

The Marshall Plan had specific goals to increase production, trade, and stability. The DFC should assess investment opportunities on their capacity to increase productivity in Ethiopia, a core metric for economic growth. Ethiopia’s investments in growing its textile industry focuses on the low-end of the value chain, a move that highlights Ethiopia’s ability to be an alternative manufacturing hub to China given its cheap labor and power. However, the average Ethiopian firm sells just $14,180 worth of output per worker per year, nearly half that of India and significantly lower than Kenya at $46,420. DFC should support technical assistance that is directly linked to productivity gains, just as the Marshall Plan focused on more than just modern machinery, but also management and labor efficiency. DFC can support growth in areas of U.S. competitiveness like telecoms and smart cities, but also other sectors like services, where productivity rates are naturally higher.

Mobilizing U.S. private sector expertise should be an integral part of DFC’s strategy as it provides needed services and global relationships to Ethiopian companies and exposes U.S. industry leaders firsthand to opportunities in a fast-growing frontier market. During the Marshall Plan, a $5 million special fund financed sending 350 U.S. experts to Europe and bringing 481 Europeans to visit the U.S. All funds had to be used for projects that directly supported the goals of increased production and stability. Africa is home to about 400 companies with revenue of $1 billion; however, just 11 of those 400 companies are in East Africa, and African countries have fewer larger corporates than their global peers. Given Ethiopia’s potential to be a leader in manufacturing and a world-class tourist destination, U.S. expertise could go a long way in growing Ethiopia’s export market.

Apart from technical assistance, DFC can play a vital role in alleviating forex (FX) constraints to help grow and diversify Ethiopia’s export base. In September, the government announced the “Home Grown Economic Reform Program” to address Ethiopia’s forex availability, a long-standing impediment to economic growth. However, outside the agriculture sector more needs to be done to boost FX availability as many companies still face 90 day FX delays. The Marshall Plan provided guarantees to convert profit into dollars on American private sector investments in Europe to encourage American investment in European industry. The same model could be replicated in Ethiopia and provide the country with needed foreign investment and capital.

Important to the success of the DFC’s new pledge to Ethiopia is finding a way to sustain commitment and momentum over multiple years, including ensuring that other parts of the U.S. government are supporting Ethiopia to boost regional security.

The U.S. military assistance budget since 2017 has not included Ethiopia; however, increasing aid to strengthen Ethiopia’s national capacity for conflict prevention would further reduce the likelihood of violence, providing needed reassurance for the private sector. The DFC is paving the way for a new era of U.S. investment in African markets — getting the big push in Ethiopia right will provide valuable lessons for a repeatable model in other fast-growing countries.

Aubrey Hruby is co-founder of the Africa Expert Network, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and co-author of ‘The Next Africa‘ (2015).

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Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia: Anatomy of an African Enigmatic Polity

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By Odomaro Mubangizi

Introduction

Talk of Ethiopia conjures a whole range of metaphors and contradictory perceptions and misconceptions.  With the ascendance to power of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, as Prime Minister of Ethiopia on April 2, 2018, the strategic Horn of Africa country is back in the global limelight.  The political excitement in Ethiopia has not yet died out even though there is guarded or cautious optimism.  Part of the reason why there is such great excitement about both Ethiopia and Dr. Abiy is the manner in which the political transition took place.  First, there were massive protests across the country that nearly tore the country apart.  Second, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn did the honorable thing and resigned amidst rising political tensions, supposedly to pave way for radical political reforms and to be part of such process.  Analysts are still guessing what this process would be.

What is well known is that the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)–a coalition of ethnically based parties—painstakingly held lengthy meetings and finally settled for Dr. Abiy as the chairperson of the ruling party and subsequently was endorsed as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia.  The rest, as they say, is history.

While Dr. Abiy’s political honeymoon is still on, it is important to ponder and ruminate over the mythical and mysterious polity known as Ethiopia, which has puzzled scholars for centuries if not millennia.  A lot has been written and will continue to be written about this fascinating African polity, popularly nicknamed the “Land of origins.”  This is because of the archeological findings of the oldest hominid called “Lucy” or “Dinknesh” in Amharic.  By this fact alone, Ethiopia is placed in an interesting historical epoch and stands in a class of its own in the entire world. Not to forget that Ethiopia also is very much talked about in the Biblical narratives right from the Old Testament (Cush in Genesis, Moses having married an Ethiopia in Exodus, the Queen of Sheba’s historical visit to Jerusalem to seek the wisdom of King Solomon, the Ethiopian Eunich of the Acts of the Apostles who was baptized by the Apostle Philip, after he had read from the book of prophet Isaiah).

I will use Pan-African and Afropolitan conceptual and theoretical frameworks to shed some light on Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia in the broader global political economy.

It is important to state right away that Ethiopia remains an enigmatic polity that defies clear cut categorization and conceptualization.  One of the main goals for this piece is to start what will be a long discourse about Ethiopia amidst the current political trajectory that Dr. Abiy has embarked on, as a dynamic, forwarding looking, Pan-African, peace and security analyst and young leader. This is an aspirational and prescriptive approach since it is too early to tell what Dr. Abiy’s political and economic performance will be in the years to come.

The continental context and mood is that of the much talked about Africa rising narrative, Agenda 2063, Sustainable Development Goals, demographic dividend, African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA), and the increasing attractiveness of Africa as a choice destination for foreign direct investment.

Since Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia is home to the AU, one cannot talk about the destiny and fortunes of one ignoring the other.  Ethiopia is, in a way, the mirror of the entire African continent’s paradoxes and contradictions: (1) rich and complex cultural diversity; (2) simmering ethno-politics;  (3) underdevelopment amidst enormous natural resources and financial illicit flows;  (4) brain-drain amidst limited capacity; (5) nascent democratic and governance institutions; (6) tension between tradition and modernity; (7) centrifugal and centripetal political and economic forces; (8) tension between the sacred and the secular; (9) increasing gap between rich and poor; (10) Quest for home-grown solutions while heavily relying on foreign aid, foreign direct investment and imported goods and services.  We can call these challenges as ten problems with African development.  Fix them and you claim the 21st Century.

 

Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia: A Paradoxical Mythical and Mystical Polity with Manifest Destiny in Global Affairs

That Ethiopia still fascinates scholars, politicians and development agents, is not in dispute.  But it also intrigues many in equal measure.  It is a political enigma in the Horn of Africa, and no scholar has been able to fully grasp the territory that was once referred to as the “Land of Prester John.”  Few countries on earth can claim to have a history that goes back to the mythical biblical times, share narratives with ancient Egypt, provide one source of the might Nile river (the other source being in Uganda), be home to ancient and medieval monasteries, host dozens of World UNESCO World Heritage sites, have the hottest area on earth, be home to all major world religions (Christianity, Judaism, and Islam), have its own alphabet, be home to over 80 ethnic communities each with a distinct language, and be both modern and ancient.

Psalm 68 states that Ethiopia shall lift up its hands in prayer to God. This prophetic pronouncement that reappears in other forms in other Old Testament passages, situates Ethiopia in the divine plan of God.  And truly in Ethiopia hands are lifted up in prayer to God.  Numerous Orthodox and other Christian churches decorate the entire expansive land of Ethiopia, followed by numerous Mosques.  There are also animist religious traditions that are not usually spoken about.  The most dramatic religious monuments are the rock hewn churches in Lalibera and the controversial belief that the Old Testament Ark of the Covenant is kept securely in Axum at the Church of Our Lady of Sion.  Millions of pilgrims and tourists have flocked to Axum and Lalibela to catch a glimpse of these amazing sacred spaces.

The connection of Ethiopia to the Solomonic dynasty is narrated in the famous ancient book Kibre Negest[i] or the Glory of the Kings, that claims that when the Queen of Sheba visited King Solomon,[ii] she conceived a son with King Solomon.[iii]  This son, it is believed, was Menelik I.  The veracity of these claims defies verification since historians have not reached consensus on what in fact was Ethiopia of that time, or even where Sheba was actually located.  However, if you cannot prove something to be true, you also cannot categorically deny it to be true.  Joseph Flavius, a famous Jewish historian also narrates the story of the Queen of Sheba whom he says was a queen both of Egypt and Ethiopia: “There was then a woman Queen of Egypt and Ethiopia; she was inquisitive into philosophy, and one that on other accounts also was to be admired.”[iv]  Ethiopia will remain a land where myth, mystery and history meet, for centuries to come.

It is not only the Old Testament that speaks a lot about Ethiopia (regardless of how one defines Ethiopia of the Old Testament), even the New Testament has several references to it.  Philip the Apostle met an Ethiopia treasurer of Queen Candace who was reading a book of Isaiah (Acts of the Apostles 8:26-39), and after explaining to him what he was reading without understanding, he baptized him.  Tradition has it that it is this convert who brought Christianity to Ethiopia.[v]

A terrain where you have all major world religions converging, you will definitely have world civilizations converging, if not competing.  So you will find Chinese, Indians, Americans, Europeans, and Africans, side by side on the wide and recently tiled streets of Addis Ababa.

This is not Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” but the convergence of civilizations, for the moment.  Chinese, Indian, Ethiopian, Turkish, French, Kenyan, and Italian restaurants are shoulder to shoulder in the streets of Addis Ababa.

A stop at Edna Mall around Bole will bring you face to face with Hollywood Movies like Black Panther, and if you move a few meters away you will be at Yod Abyssinia watching traditional cultural music and dance from the various ethnic communities of Ethiopia.

Food at Yod Abyssinia will be traditional Dolo wat, Injera, Kitiffo, tebs and traditional gomen vegetable.  While at Edna Mall the main food and drinks will be chicken, chips, pop corns and coke.  A few meters away from Edna Mall you will find an imposing Orthodox Church.  Tradition and modernity live side by side—malls as temples of global capitalism and churches or mosques as temples of global faiths.

And yes, even matters of health and wellness carry the consistent paradox.  Spas with sauna and massage parlors for the affluent Afropolitans and expatriates provide stress relief, while ordinary pious Orthodox and other Christians immerse themselves in or sign themselves with holy water at the entrance of churches.

Hot springs near Hilton and in Sodere in Nazareth, are choice destinations for those who seek wellness infused with divine aroma-aquatherapy.  On the feast of Timkat or Epiphany (celebrated by millions of people from Ethiopia and abroad), the pious faithful are sprinkled with Holy water, while others immerse themselves in the pool of water in Gondar.

You may hold you own beliefs on the supernatural,  but I do not see how such a country fully immersed and imbued with sacred and religious symbolism can decline in reverence and awe for the divine.  Forget the once trending scholars’ secularization thesis that dominated Western academia.  Even during the tense times of the mass protects, state of emergency that rocked the country since 2016, religion and divine invocation was a dominant theme.  When there was some claim of a supernatural phenomenon in Bole Bulbula to the effect that Mary might (since the investigation is still going on) have appeared to a Salesian Polish Nun Alexandra, those who strongly believe in such supernatural phenomena were quick to link the phenomenon with divine intervention to save Ethiopia from a political cataclysm.  And indeed hundreds of devout Christians (both Catholic and Orthodox) flocked to Bole Bulbula to see the alleged apparition but also to pray for peace in Ethiopia.  The image of Our Lady that supposedly appeared on a piece of cloth has since gone viral.  The cloth was taken to the Vatican for careful examination.  This phenomenon, if it is validated, will also add to the global visibility of Ethiopia and contribute to the sacred global political economy of the Land of Prester John.

Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia: Recent Scholarship but the Mystery and Enigma still remain

I start with small anecdote.  In some remote area of Ethiopia around Dembidollo, a UN policy expert was trying to impress upon the community the need for evidence-based interventions.  “You need to know right information, accurate statistics, history, and behavior patterns.” One elder asked through an interpreter: “And why should we know all these?”  The UN expert said: “Once you have all this accurate data and information, then you will plan better for your projects.”  Then the elder pushed further: “Why should we plan better for our projects?”  The UN expert said: “with better planning and good projects like better farming methods, and water supply, you will have increased food production and better income.”  The elder further asked: “But why should we increase food production and increase our income?” The UN expert replied: “Then you will be able to educate your children, have good health, and live a happy life without much difficulties.”

The elder replied: “My son, what you have just said about good health and a happy life, is what we have been enjoying all our life since centuries ago. So we do not need your statistics, data, planning for projects, and your so-called better farming methods.” The short anecdote on knowledge is warning not to exaggerate the role of research and the conventional models of planning that policy makers usually peddle around.

Having said that, we still have to grapple with the issue of scholarship on Ethiopia to be able to discern what Dr. Abiy will have to wrestle with during his term as Prime Minister of Ethiopia.  Fortunately, scholars still have great intellectual appetite for Ethiopian studies.  It needs to be stated at the outset that Ethiopia has always posed serious methodological hurdles as an entity for scholarly investigation.  Research is not done in a political and economic vacuum—there is such a thing as the political economy of knowledge production.  After all, whose knowledge and whose methodology?

With the rise in mass protests across Ethiopia, that eventually gave rise to the shift in power dynamics, the EPRDF itself admitted that there were mistakes in governance and democratic participation.  With this admission, the suggestion was that there should be more inclusive participation—widening the political space.  Political prisoners were released and some of the most critical independent journalists who had been imprisoned such as Nega (on terrorism charges), were released.  One famous political scientist turned politician Dr. Merera Gudina, who had been arrested after his trip from Europe, was also released from prison.  In a situation where political and economic spaces are tightly controlled, do not expect free flow of ideas and knowledge guided by objective and rigorous research.  Intellectual and academic freedom require political and economic freedom.  The most obvious challenge that researchers face in a highly controlled state systems is the limited access to internet and current literature.

Dr. Abiy being an intellectual and scholar in his own right, it is hoped that he will be more at home with press freedom and frank intellectual exchange.  This will be another litmus test of his commitment to opening political space. Scholarly interest in Ethiopia is not something new.

Apart from Egypt, Ethiopia ranks no. 1 in terms of scholarship on ancient African societies.  When scholars speak about African studies, they exclude Ethiopia and create a separate category of Ethiopian Studies, given the unique history and geographical location.

The controversy and polemics on this categorization will not detain us.  Philosophers and theologians have also tried to do scientific research on Ethiopian manuscripts hidden in ancient monasteries that date to the medieval period.  Due to the fact that these manuscripts are written in an ancient language known as Ge’ez, it is exceedingly difficult to unravel the hidden mysteries in these manuscripts.  Some scholars have even traced Ethiopian philosophy to the modern period of Rene Descartes.

The much studied Ethiopian philosopher Zara Yacob occupies a special place in knowledge production.  Surprisingly, it was a Canadian Jesuit philosopher Prof. Claude Sumner who popularized Ethiopian philosophy and wrote several volumes about it.[vi]  He studied both Zara Yacob’s philosophy and also Oromo wisdom literature as expressed in proverbs and folk tales.[vii]  The type of philosophy found in proverbs and folk tales is what some call ethno or sage philosophy.  Another Jesuit researcher Van de Loo studied Guji customs and proverbs.[viii]

A close look at these studies reveals how all the research so far done on Ethiopia is just a scratch on the surface.  Ethiopia is not just layers of time but also layers of truth that one keeps unearthing with time.  A question is usually posed: “how long does it take to understand Ethiopia for a research?” The answer goes like this: “One year to understand the language Amharic (and there are other over 80 languages); two years to understand the culture; three years to understand the economy; four years to understand politics; five years to understand religion; and eternity to understand the whole country and its people!” Then the conclusion is that it is only God who understands Ethiopia.  This makes it exciting since there is always something hidden to learn.

As way back as the 17th Century a famous Jesuit by the name of Pedro Paez (1564-1622) dared to write a comprehensive history of Ethiopia in two massive volumes covering anthropology, botany, geography, religion, politics, culture and even theology. This history has been recently translated into English for the first time.[ix]  With this scholarly publication, some of the myths and legends about Ethiopia have been laid to rest, and a foundation for further inquiry has been laid.

The main reason why Ethiopia has been a great source of fascination among scholars and international relations experts is its strategic location close to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and in a very strategic geopolitical location known as the Horn of Africa.  As early as the 16th and 17th Centuries, European imperial powers, explorers and missionaries were busy figuring out the legend of priestly and royal King Prester John.  The deeper motive for fascination with Prester John was the challenging advance and expansion of Islam in the backdrop of Christian crusades.  Not surprisingly, the Society of Jesus (Jesuits) got entangled in the dramatic quest of Prester John, and used this intriguing phenomenon to strategically explore possibilities of consolidating the Christian faith in Ethiopia.  St. Ignatius of Loyola, the founder of the Jesuits took a personal interest in the question of Prester John, and dispatched some of his most talented Jesuits to Ethiopia in the 16th and 17th Century.  By that time, Ethiopia had become a theatre of complex geopolitical rivalry and theological debates on the nature of Christ—whether he was both human and divine.

Jesuits who were working closely with the kings of the time, naturally found themselves in the middle of these protracted debates.

Because of intimate interaction with the Ethiopian rulers and elites of the time, Jesuits contributed immensely to the intellectual and cultural production of medieval Ethiopia.[x]  The journeys of Jesuits in Ethiopia, especially Fathers Antonio Fernadez, Almeida, martyrdom of Fathers Francisco Machado and Bernado Pereira, their interaction with Kings of the time, are meticulously documented in Almeida’s History, Book,s VII-VIII.[xi]

What is paradoxical about Ethiopia’s medieval era is the exposure to the then imperial powers of the time such as Portugal, Spain and the Papacy, and at the same time Ethiopia being sheltered from the rest of Africa.  The well documented correspondences between Ethiopian Kings and Popes of the time suggest a great deal of interaction between Ethiopia and Europe.  Some papal legates commonly known as Nuncios were being sent from the Vatican to Ethiopia.  One wonders why the vibrant Christian faith that flourished in Ethiopia since the Acts of the Apostles did not spread to the rest of Sub-saharan Africa. The challenge that all Christian missionaries who come to Ethiopia have to grapple with is what role they have to play in a country that has had a vibrant Christian life since the 4th Century when King Ezana officially declared Ethiopia a Christian country.

Confronted by such a challenge, some expatriate missionaries settle for provision of social services and try to steer away from trying to make converts. But still this does not solve the issue since not all parts of Ethiopia have been evangelized.  Quite a bit of studies have been made on missionary strategies in Ethiopia, with special focus on the role of Jesuits.[xii] Just to demonstrate how Ethiopia has been of great interest for the then Christendom of the 16th Century, St. Ignatius of Loyola wrote three documents between 1553 and 1556, instructing Jesuits on how to go about their missionary work in Ethiopia.[xiii]  In 1553, St. Ignatius wrote a letter to King King João III (1521–1557), that contains instructions on who among Jesuits should be sent for the mission in Ethiopi, and especially, who should be appointed the Patriarch, as well as succession procedure.  This first document is called Information for His Highness on the people of our Company who seem to be suitable for the kingdoms of Prester John.

The second document was written in 1554–Instructions which may help to bring the kingdoms of Prester John into union with the Catholic faith and Church—following the decision to appoint João Nunes Barreto (1520–1568) to become Patriarch of Ethiopia.  Given the complicated history and traditions of Ethiopia that outsiders could not easily understand, some of the instructions and recommendations in this document led to some serious misunderstandings between Jesuits and the Orthodox Christians of Ethiopia.  The third and final document that was written in 1556–Summary of things necessary for Ethiopia—was more of practical procedures for Jesuits who were sent to Emperor Galawdéwos’ (1540–1559).   St. Ignatius of Loyola who was a man of details and a strategist, spelt out how Jesuits were to relate with the local clergy and also how bishops were to be consecrated in Ethiopia.

Even though Ethiopia of the global middle ages is largely the Ethiopia of Kings and imperial European rivalry and missionary adventures, it is still being studied by historians up to today.  Since most of the writings of this period were written in Latin, Portuguese, Italian and Spanish, the English speaking world looks at the recent English translations and works in English with a fresh look.

Among the leading scholars of Ethiopian studies, Professor Richard Pankhurst occupies pride of place.  He has written scholarly works on Ethiopia’s economic history, towns, medicine, education, slave trade, trade, and culture.[xiv]  Paul B. Henze took bold step to write Ethiopian history form the remote past to the modern time addressing issues such as:[xv] the rise and fall of Aksum, Zagwe and Solomonic dynasties, architecture, painting, handcrafts, and Ethiopia’s interaction with the Near East, Arabia, and the Indian Ocean.

In all these interactions, what is commendable is Ethiopia’s resilience and keeping her culture and beliefs intact to a great extent.  Matteo Salvadore, Assistant Professor of History at American University of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, recently published an excellent work that can be considered the best intellectual history of Ethiopia during the middle ages.[xvi]

Salvadore writing in 2017, digs deep into Italian and Portuguese sources to unravel Ethiopian and European relations between 1402 and 1555.[xvii]  A close look at both religious and political motives of the time, reveals how Europe influenced and was influenced by Ethiopia in equal measure.  Sites of mutual influence were, royal palaces, monasteries, markets around the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Indian Ocean, Lisbon, Jerusalem, Venice and Goa.  Important to recall that Portugal intervened in support of the Christian monarchy in the Ethiopian Adali War.

Of course it is a mistake to assume that European encounter with Ethiopia took place only in the Northern Highlands and around palaces of Kings, or that Ethiopia is one monolithic culture, as some people wrongly assume. Far from it.  A social and cultural historical analysis reveals the contrary.  For instance from 1846 until 1880, Massaja, a Capuchin missionary served as Vicar Apostolic among the Oromo of East Africa for over three decades.[xviii]  It is during this period that the Italian interest in Ethiopia got consolidated.  The issues that Cardinal Massaja struggled with such as Muslim-Christian relations and Orthodox-Catholic relations, are still of great concern in Ethiopia even today.[xix]  In those days, prominent missionaries played both political and diplomatic roles.  Another missionary who played a similar role in the Apostolic Vicariate of Abyssinia is Giustino de Jacobis.[xx]  Bishop Daniel Comboni played a similar role in Sudan. On the role of priest in Ethiopia during between 1830 and 1868, Donald Crummey has done an impressive study, focusing on:[xxi]  political interaction; the central role of missionaries in the genesis of modern Afro-European relations; Ethiopian leaders dealings with representatives of a foreign society; missionary strategies; attitudes towards the Ethiopian Orthodox Church;  and identification of Christianity with European culture.

In the 20th Century, scholars started to expand discourse on Ethiopia to include other ethnic communities in an attempt to comprehend the evolution of a complex multiethnic society and polity we call Ethiopia.  A few illustrations will suffice.  Budge E. A. W., explored the history of Ethiopia from Nubian and Abyssinian perspectives.[xxii]

Donald Levine, once a professor of sociology at the University of Chicago, tried to synthesize the Ethiopian multiethnic reality, by exploring the semitic civilization, differentiation of peoples and cultures, Amhara, Oromo and Tigrean legacies, and emerged with Greater Ethiopia project.[xxiii]  William A. Shack studied kinship, local organization, family, marriage, clanship and ritual, and religious organization of the Gurage.[xxiv]  further and developed what can be called an “indigenous African economic philosophy” by studying Gurage entrepreneurship.[xxv]   Daniel Teferra’s conclusion is that the a peaceful and work and sharing with capitalist spirit of competition, saving and free enterprise), then the Gurage would be its best manifestation.

Influenced by post-modernism and subaltern analysis, some scholars have tried to expose the scholarship of erasure where some marginalized minority cooperative work ethic that includes frugality.  As a result they are one of the most enterprising people in Ethiopia.  To paraphrase Max Weber, one can posit a thesis: Gurage ethic and the Picking up from where William A. Shack stopped, Daniel Teferra took the study of the Gurage a step spirit of capitalism!

If there is such a thing as Africapitalism (a fusion of African values of solidarity, hard communities have been neglected from mainstream Ethiopian studies.  This is what Dena Freeman and Alula Pankhusrt, in their edited work, Peripheral People, The Excluded Minorities of Ethiopia, written in 2003, tried to do.[xxvi]  So who are these excluded minorities? It is the Southern Ethiopia craftworkers and hunters, blacksmiths, potters, tanners, woodworkers, and weavers.  Not only is their contribution to the economy of the country not recognized, they are also considered as less human, outcastes, and they are even considered and feared as purveyors of evil and supernatural powers.  They are marginalized socially, economically and politically.[xxvii]

These excluded and marginalized groups are spread across Ethiopia and live among the major ethnic communities: The North-East: Gurage, Yem, Kambata; North-West: Kafa, Shekacho, Dawro; The South-West: Malo, Oyda; The Centre-South: Gamo, Wolaita; The South-East: Sidama, Konso; Urban or Semi-Urban Areas: Shashemene and Woliso.  Politics of exclusion and marginalization can very easily move from minorities and subtly cross over to majorities, as long as the logic of domination and marginalization is the operative mode.

Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia: A Contested Intellectual and Political Terrain

The sub-title of this article is “An anatomy of an Enigmatic African Polity.”  This was deliberate.  The discussion so far has steered away from controversies around Ethiopian studies and the politics of knowledge.  The discussion has also not touched on the political economy of Ethiopia and its democratization process.  It is now appropriate to embark on a cursory look at Ethiopia’s contested intellectual terrain in the backdrop of its long match to modernization and democratization.  Important to state at the outset that some of the contradictions hinted at in the previous sections such as complex and diverse ethnic identities, contested historiography, foreign relations, and religion, play a crucial role in the complicating the process of nation building and consolidation of democracy in Ethiopia.

From  a geopolitical point of view, there is a contestation on where Ethiopia lies—Eastern Africa or Horn of Africa? By the fact that Ethiopia is the headquarters of the African Union (AU), this gives it a strategic position within the African continent.  But there is some centrifugal force (real or imagined) that tends to pull Ethiopia to the Orient.  One obvious factor is religion. Both Orthodox Christianity and Islam are global faiths that enjoy a universal appeal and try to extend their influence globally.  Ethiopia is therefore tied to the Near Eastern and Middle Eastern religious loci.  No intellectual discourse can ignore this fact.  This is both an advantage and a challenge.  Intellectually, this makes Ethiopia like a moving target that defies easy conceptualization.

Just to site another example from regional integration discourse.  Ethiopia is part of IGAD, but Ethiopia is not part of the East African Community.  Two of the main countries of the East African Community Kenya and Uganda are very close to Ethiopia, with Kenya sharing a border with Ethiopia to the North.  If there was a road linking South Sudan to Ethiopia, Uganda would be a few hours from Ethiopia by road.  Has the epistemic gap generated a geopolitical barrier in the Horn of Africa?

The fact that Ethiopia was not colonized during the scramble for the rest of Africa, does not cushion it from the negative impact of colonization chief among them being the balkanization of Africa into small unviable states.  Using a Pan-Africanist discourse, it is easy to notice that colonial architecture that curved Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, South Sudan, Uganda and Sudan out of the Horn of Africa or East Africa, also affected Ethiopia directly.  The much talked about Ethiopian isolationism can be traced to this colonial project that created spheres of influence for Italy, Britain and France around Ethiopia, in a territory that would be one large geopolitical entity.

 

What about inside Ethiopia? Inside Ethiopia there are some intellectual currents of contestations along philosophical and ideological lines.  Ethiopia like other states in Africa, regardless of the influence of colonialism or lack of it, faces the challenge of state formation, national cohesion and democratic consolidation.  The other key challenge is the model of development to be followed.  All these issues are still haunting Ethiopia and the new Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed will have to figure out how to address them.

Ezekiel Gebissa and his colleagues, in a captivating title, Contested Terrain: The Oromo and Ethiopian Studies, have laid a foundation for radical discourse on identity politics in the context of Ethiopian studies that commenced in the 1950s.[xxviii]  Truth be told, when Eritrea got independence from Ethiopia (some would say this is regrettable), there has been some real or imagined threat of disintegration under the banner of self-determination by other ethnonational groups. There is a question of dissenting scholarship amidst hegemonic and dominating discourse.  And with it comes a related issue of democratizing intellectual discourse.

There is much talk about widening democratic space in Ethiopia, but a precondition for political participation is free exchange of ideas and opinions, including dissent.  Free and democratic discourse should be able to candidly address issues such as: history, conquest, resistance, land question, political consciousness, nationalism, diaspora, human rights and national reconciliation.  Struggles for expression and participation as demonstrated by Ethiopian student movements, have been an essential ingredient in Ethiopia’s recurring revolutions.[xxix]

One can even coin an aphorism that “All history of hitherto existing societies, is a history of struggles for expression and participation.”  If you suppress expression and participation, you attract a revolution.[xxx]

Right at the heart of the juridical framework that holds the Ethiopian state together, one can detect some inherent contradictions, that if not well handled can lead to serious political challenges that can threaten national cohesion.  For instance article 39 of Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) of December 1994 states: “Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.”  for equal recognition of all languages, but kept Amharic as the working language of the Federal government.  What happened is that each state was left free to choose its working language.  Those who carefully observe the country have noticed that as other ethnic communities emphasize their own language, fluency in Amharic diminishes. This can If such a provision is made in a country that has over 80 ethnic communities that are loosely brought together, while they have unique identities and histories, it can increase the appetite for secession, especially when economic benefits are not equitably distributed in the country.  The same article also provides easily undermine national cohesion and unity in the long run. Still looking inside the enigmatic polity of Ethiopia, the national question has remained defiant.

Merera Gudina argues that the underlying issue undermining democracy in Ethiopia is an autocratic and authoritarian culture that can be traced to ancient monarchical style of rule, consolidated by the Derg Military regime, and further reinforced by ethnic federalism that was adopted by the 1994 constitution.[xxxi]

 

Merera Gudina was rather prophetic in identifying ethnic rivalry and tensions engendered by an ill-conceived decentralization policy: “The ruling party’s decentralization drive carries in itself the tendency of heightening the competing ethnic nationalisms which have further provoked intra- and inter-élite rivalry across the board.”[xxxii]

We may have to look to philosophy and political economy for some sort of working synthesis to make sense of the Ethiopian enigma.

One scholar who has tried to subject Ethiopia to a philosophical inquiry from a historical and political perspective is Professor Messay Kebede.[xxxiii]  It is quite interesting that Messay Kebede sites the conviction that Ethiopians have being the elect of God (theme of manifest destiny), and further suggests that Ethiopians consider ancient borders of Ethiopia to extend to “…Egypt in the north, Kenya and Uganda in the South, and Yemen across the Red Sea.”[xxxiv]

Two problems of Ethiopia that many scholars agree about are: “the weakness of political unity and the persistence of ethnic loyalties—by the geographical configuration.”[xxxv]  In concluding his study, Messay Kebede calls for a modernization that entails celebrating ethnic and religious diversity, and that cherishes the values of mutual respect and tolerance of the other.[xxxvi]

Ethiopia As One Diverse and Complex Polity: Towards a Political-economic philosophical Synthesis

The empirical evidence and some conceptual elements so far discussed, can provide us with a foundation for a preface of political and economic theory of the enigmatic polity called Ethiopia.  The complex diversity that has marked Ethiopia for millennia will not go way any time soon.  It is a reality to be contended with.  Any politician or political collective that aspires to govern Ethiopia will have to grapple with this phenomenon.

A mishandling of this reality, as history has shown, will inevitably lead to regime collapse.  Ethiopia has an old social, religious, economic, legal and political framework that has stood the test of time.  It is deeply imbedded in the psyche of the ordinary people regardless of intellectual or economic status.

Just as an example from legal studies, Aberra Jembere wrote a scholarly work on Ethiopia’s legal history—An Introduction to the Legal History of Ethiopia 1434-1974, in 2012.  No country in Africa has such a long history of documented legal practice and indigenous jurisprudence.

All the major ethnic communities have their customary laws from time immemorial: Tigry, Amhara, Oromo, Kunama, Gurage, Afar, Somali, Wolaitta, Kafecho, and Anuak, to name a few.[xxxvii]  The other sources of Ethiopian modern law are religious edicts and the teachings of scholars—Judaism and Christianity, Islam, and teaching of scholars.  Also recall the Fetha Negest—The Law of the Kings—that was introduced to Ethiopia from Coptic Egypt.[xxxviii]

Bearing in mind the social, cultural, economic, religious and political history of Ethiopia, the Charter of 1991 and the 1994 constitution arrived at a philosophical synthesis that settled for federalism, as the most viable form of political organization that ensure unity in diversity, self-rule, inclusivity, participation, without one ethinic community dominating the others, at least in theory.

The philosophy behind a federal arrangement that has over two hundred years been adopted by about a third of the world’s countries, is that it is the only best option for governing conflict-prone multi-ethnic societies.

Power is balanced between federal government and states, with neither taking away power and authority granted by the constitution.[xxxix]  The best and sure way to have a stable and prosperous polity that is prone to conflict, is to put in place a political arrangement that guarantees equitable distribution of power and resources.  This is what federalism tries to do.  But care has to be taken that such a federal arrangement is indeed decentralizing power and services, and not just in name or on paper.  If this federal arrangement is ethnicized, it will also tend to lead to fragmentation and ethnic exclusion.  Those who have observed Ethiopia keenly suspect that the recent upheavals that took the country by storm for about three years, are a result of ethnic federalism—a distortion of an otherwise noble political theory, whose main goal is to decongest political power from the center and to limit any propensity to authoritarianism and monopoly of economic and political power by any one group.

The other key element of Ethiopian philosophical synthesis is the role of Ethiopia in global political and the African continental integration dynamics.  Right from the time of Emperor Hiale Selassie[xl] up to the regime of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia has enjoyed a robust international relations status globally.  Meles Zenawi continued the diplomatic charm offensive and place Ethiopia at the center of Western interests in Africa but still kept his philosophy of a developmental state model and revolutionary democracy.[xli]  Whether he succeeded in his effort, the jury is out there.  But the double digit economic growth, infrastructure development across Ethiopia and the road to industrialization that Ethiopia has embarked on, are all attributed to Meles Zenawi’s astute economic and political policies.  But he also blamed for heavy handedness in dealing with opposition forces and independent media.

Be it soft power such as the appeal of Ethiopia’s Coffee, colorful attire, religious festivities that attract millions every year, world heritage sites, or hard power of economic influence in the region such as the Ethiopian Airlines that hovers over the skies in all directions of the world, and contribution to peace-keeping operations in distressed countries of Africa such as Somalia and South Sudan,  Ethiopia is a force to contend with.

Ethiopia is home the AU and every year, AU Summits are held in Addis Ababa, coming up with fantastic and at times over ambitious plans such as Agenda 2063 and Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA).  Ethiopia can therefore be considered the synthesis of the aspirations and dreams of the African continent. After all Ethiopia is the cradle of humanity—and of origins.

Two other scholars who have helped shed some more light on the Ethiopian enigma , and who has to some extent contributed to the synthesis discussed in this section, are Gérard Prunier and Ficquet in their co-edited Understanding Contemporary Ethiopia: Monarchy, Revolution and the Legacy of Meles Zenawi, that we just cited above.

All the strands of the Ethiopian Enigma fall into place—monarchy and territorial expansion, demography, economics, politics, international relations, culture, religion (Islam, Evangelical movement, and Orthodx), pan-Africanism, Eritrean question, democracy and development, electoral politics (2005-2010), urbanization, and former regimes.

The editors assembled a team of experts on different aspects of Ethiopia of today.  The result is an unprecedented scholarly work.

What else then do we know? We shall touch on a few salient features of the Ethiopian enigma as a gradual introduction to the events that gave rise to Dr. Abiy Ahmed as the new Prime Minister of Ethiopia.

Federalism and revolutionary democracy has been the operating political theory since 1991, with its main dynamics of decentralization, democratization, and liberalization. This arrangement has persisted for over 25 years but with political tensions ever rising.[xlii]  It is these political tensions that reached a crescendo and became uncontrollable leading to Prime Minister Hailemariam’s resignation in 2018. Religion demography which have been a major factors in Ethiopia’s social, economic and political life have undergone some radical shift.  By 2012 Ethiopia’s population reached 91.2 million and now over 100 million being the second largest in Africa following Nigeria.  The infrastructural transformation by way of excellent road networks, and air travel, have increased the country’s cohesion but have also facilitated easy mobilization of the population for political activism.  The three major religions Christianity, Islam, and Judaism continue to live side by side.

The major religious shift in religion has been the rise in numbers of evangelical protestants (close to 20 %) and Moslem (close to 33 %), when combined, displacing Christian Orthodox Tewahedo Church of Ethiopia as the dominant religious framework for understanding Ethiopia.[xliii]  While the Catholic Church is still the minority (about 0.8 %), it far outranks others in terms of social services provision such as schools, humanitarian projects and hospitals.  Islam is now accorded equal rights under the secular constitution even though once in a while you hear of veiled comments about unsubstantiated links with Islamic fundamentalist groups.  The most dramatic and colorful group among the various religions of Ethiopia that has gained currency are the various protestant movements. Gérard Prunier and Ficquet characterize them aptly: “By their assertiveness, capacity for entrepreneurship, discourse against traditional beliefs and conduct, and use of the resources they get from their transnational networks, the various Protestant movements have become one of the major forces contributing to the birth of a “new Ethiopian man”, in accordance with the developmental stance of the government.”[xliv]

While Prunier and Ficquet  express some concern that such radical transformation may have potential destabilizing consequences that are often overlooked, their potential to be agents of democratization has also been overlooked.

What about bread and butter issues or political economy and elections? There much talk of Ethiopia as an “African Lion”, given its rapid economic growth (at 11.6 % in 2007/8.)  Ethiopia has also adopted a climate resilient green economy covering both agriculture and forestry.[xlv] There is the much talked about Growth and Transformation Plan. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is talk of the town and it is on course even though Egypt keeps making some trouble about this grand project. Skyscrapers are all over the Capital of Addis Ababa for all to see. Clothes factories have been opened, Chinese investments has grown by leaps and bounds.  Ethiopia has also embarked on an ambitious industrialization plan, that is home-grown, using its model of the developmental state.  Areas that Ethiopia has embarked on include: agro-processing, light industries, industrial zones, textiles, infrastructure, energy-centered investment, floriculture, and import substitution.[xlvi]

However the major question to raise about the rapid economic growth is its largely state controlled nature and concentrating all major investments in parastatals that in the words of  Gérard Prunier and Ficquet, “…throttles the capacity of private investors to enter Ethiopia’s market.”[xlvii]  Sectors such as telecommunications and finance are no-go areas, since they are the exclusive reserve of the state.  One does not need to be an expert in economics to see that such an arrangement will lead to shortage of foreign currency, promotes rent-seeking and corruption, distorts the economy, and limits the growth of the private sector, that the government also admits in rhetoric, is the engine of growth.

Electoral politics is probably the most contested area of Ethiopia’s long match to democratization.  If the 2005 and 2010 elections are anything to go by, then it seems the political playing field is not level.  This is an area that needs some thorough thinking.  Broadening political space and allowing health competition is the way to go.  Along with this widening political space comes freedom of expression and association.

Ethiopia should be commended for subjecting itself to NEPAD’s Africa’s Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), that aims at improving good governance and supporting socio-economic development in the continent.  While introducing the 2011 NEPAD’s APRM Report for Ethiopia the then Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said: “In a relatively short period of two decades, Ethiopia has successfully shifted from a unitary state to a federal system, established a fledgling democracy, and achieved a relatively high economic growth rate.”[xlviii]

Among the commendable practices that Ethiopia was praised for include: overhauling and developing road networks, assertiveness on self-reliant planning, pro-poor expenditure patterns of the governmental budget, with emphasis on agriculture, food security, irrigation, primary education, and health, and sanitation, Ethiopian Commodity Exchange, microfinance, access to markets, and strong micro-economic policy, that have yielded broad-based economic growth.[xlix]  The challenges or areas of improvement that NEPAD highlighted are: relations with Eritrea, democracy, governance and building the private sector. NEPAD’s APRM of 2011came up with quite instructive and useful recommendations for Ethiopia.  Few of them will suffice.

On the federal system, the major criticism is that it has tended to “..essentialize” ethnic identities, “privileging” them over other identity types and, in the process, heightening ethnic tension and conflict.”[l]  At the same time Ethiopia’s federalism is praised as  “…refreshing approach to governance,” and that “…it emphasises the positively creative, crosscutting, utilitarian value of ethnicity for democracy and development.”[li]

Key issues to be addressed if Ethiopia is to be a vibrant modern democracy with its brand of development theory.[lii]

First, addressing regional inequalities especially in education and public services.

Second, addressing the challenges of capacity at the wereda and kebele levels and fix corruption and inefficiency.

Third, respect the principle of decentralization that informs federal arrangement and avoid the top-down governance that can lead to intolerance of dissenting views.  This also entails separating party from government.

Fourth, strengthening and democratizing oversight institutions such as National Election Board, The Human Rights Commission, the Ombudsman, the Federal Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission. These agencies need to be accorded some independence for them to be effective.  Fifth, a political culture that allows for rule of law, separation of powers, independence of the Judiciary, Legislature and Executive arms of government, allowing competitive electoral politics and a strong civil society.

Sixth, political pluralism and political tolerance.  Working for common ground and unity among all the political actors is the way to go.

While addressing the issue of mass protests and riots as the “new normal” in Africa, Tana Forum 2018 zeroed down on Ethiopia and analyzed what caused the mass protests in 2017.  The Forum’s findings are on target.  The protests that erupted in Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and South Africa in 2017 were considered to be caused by a combination of both political and economic factors: “Across the three countries, a varying combination of issues such as poor governance, assault on civil liberties, poor social service delivery, poverty, issues of land rights, corruption, brutality by security forces and political inequality triggered mass protests.”[liii]

With specific reference to Ethiopia, the remote causes of the mass protests and riots were what NEPAD has hinted at, and these are:[liv] tensions between the federal government and federal units; failure to manage diverse groups; instigated rivalries between and among ethnic nationalities; lack of inclusion, political inequality, and unequal distribution of social and economic opportunities.

The State of Emergency that was declared in August 2016 only provided some respite to the protest and disruptions.  The issues were much deeper.  The second state of emergency was declared, but this also just reduced the tensions for a while.  Important to note how ICT and social media played a key role in mobilizing protesters both at home and in the diaspora by use of Twitter, Facebook, Whatsapp and others.  Restricting and shutting down internet helped a bit to reduce the protests, but only for a while.

The anger and frustration had reached a climax already.  These are the circumstances that led to the rise of Dr. Abiy on the political scene.

Ethiopia’s Dr. Abiy Ahmed: Challenges and Prospects Ahead

After some detailed discussion of Dr. Abiy’s Ethiopia it is now time to turn to the man himself, who has taken over the mantle to govern the enigmatic polity of Ethiopia.  Both the global and local media have spent quite some time analyzing and prescribing solutions for Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister.  He has a job well cut out for him and the expectations are quite high and he is rating is also high.

Fortune did an opinion poll and 59.49 % of Ethiopian support him, while 39.66 % are indifferent, and 0.84 are against him.[lv]  The mood in the country is that of cautious optimism, waiting to see if the rhetoric and euphoria will turn into genuine democratic and economic reforms.  Dr. Abiy started off with a charm offensive visiting the massive country of Ethiopia, spreading good-will, assuring the population and preaching unity.  This is clearly a good start given that the country had become polarized and was on the verge of collapse.

Calm has been restored.[lvi]  He has started by projecting himself as a statesman and a unifier.  He has already made official state visits to Kenya and Djibouti.[lvii]

But who is Dr. Abiy Ahmed?[lviii] He was born in a South Western Ethiopian town of  Beshasha (in Runyankore-Rukiga of  South Western Uganda, beshasha means those who make sacrifices—ethnolinguistists may investigate if there is any link) on  April 23, 1976 and he is now 42, being one of the youngest heads of state in the world.

He can bring his youthful energy to the political realm and be a game changer, as some have predicted.  By party affiliation he belongs to the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization, and he is also a member of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—a coalition of the ruling party, that he now heads.

Dr. Abiy has several academic qualifications: BA, MBA (Leadstar College of Management and Leadership in partnership with Ashland University), MA (University of Greenwich, specializing in transformational leadership, PhD (Addis Ababa University—Institute of Peace and Security Studies).  His Ph.D. thesis entitled “Social Capital and its Role in Traditional Conflict Resolution in Ethiopia: The Case of Inter-Religious Conflict In Jimma Zone state”.

Issues of inter-religious conflict are at his heart and he can be an excellent bridge builder in a country such as Ethiopia that is multi-religious and multi-ethnic.   With the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, Dr. Abiy has served in the Ethiopian armed forces since 1991-2010.  He is known for helping to set up the Information Network Security Agency. His distinguished military career has taken him to battle fields during the Ethiopian civil war, United Nationa Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR), and Ethiopian-Eritrea War.

Dr. Abiy is a typical multicultural Ethiopian who shares the main identity markers that matter.  He was born in Beshesha town near Agaro town Jimma Zone, in Oromia Region.  Having grown in a Muslim family, and some of his grandparents being Muslim while others are Christian.  His mother is An Amhara from Gonder who is closely attached to and predicted he will be a king or Negus in the future.His father is Muslim Oromo local chief. Abiys  amiable personality can be discerned from some of his words.   For instance, during the farewell dinner for his predecessor former Prime Minister Hailemarian Dessalegn, he said: “Hailemarian is an honest leader who taught leadership is possible through love and dignity.”  He was clearly alluding to Hailemariam’s courage to resign when things were not going well. Another leader would have steered the course and apply more brute force at the risk of plunging the country into deeper trouble. Dr. Abiy further demonstrated his human side: “Unlike me, Hailemarian was not lucky when he came to power. He had no one to support him and call every night to ask how his day passed.”[lix]  These  are some signs of an empathetic person who can feel with the person who endured severe political stress.

He has gradually risen in the political ranks as well.  Dr. Abiy served at the Executive Committee of OPDO and was also a member of Parliament, a position that enabled him to be a candidate for the post of Prime Minister.  Then he also served as Minister of Science and Technology.  The vast leadership experience he has marshaled for years, will come handy as steers through the political waters. The challenges that Dr. Abiy will face in years ahead are still the same as his predecessors have faced.

Ethiopia still has issues of rising inflation, unbalanced terms of trade, Forex crunch,[lx] great expectations from impatient youth and masses of poor people, unequal distribution of wealth and development.  The private sector is still in its nascent stage and he will have to make radical steps to turn this challenge around. The challenge of national cohesion and unity will be around for some time. A lot of effort to heal and reconcile the entire country will be needed. It might even be necessary to organize some sort of Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission so as to bring to a closure the past wounds and hurts that have kept the country in a state of suspicion of a likely return to the dark past days.

At the level of regional politics, Egypt will continue to complain about the use of the waters of the Nile, so Dr. Abiy will have to continue rallying the Nile Basin countries to pile pressure on Egypt to be fair its demands with regard to the Nile waters.  This might also entail Ethiopia getting more aggressive in joining regional blocks such as the East African Community, COMESA, and above all acting in a way that will give confidence the rest of Africa that Ethiopia is indeed the champion of Pan-Africanism.  Issues such as visa on arrival for all African countries as some have done (Rwanda, Ghana, and Kenya).

The newly formed AFCFTA is an opportunity for Dr. Abiy to show leadership in encouraging other African countries to expedite the ratification and implementation of this game changer.

Opportunities and prospects abound. Dr. Abiy can take advantage of the new mood and enthusiasm in the country and rally the citizens, donors and development partners to work for new dawn in Ethiopia. Both the region and the international community will be willing and eager to invest massively in a country of over 100 million people that is of great strategic location. But the caveat is that they should be assured that the internet will keep working, the telecoms will be reliable, and the private property will be secure.

All these possible but they require political will and some rethinking of the statist economic model and highly centralized planning model that leaves little room for the private sector.The most important resource that Ethiopia has is its human resource—people.  Ethiopians in generally patriotic, law-abiding, courteous, almost superstitiously God-fearing, proudly Ethiopian—all these until provoked by unscrupulous politicians.

The Ethiopian population is by and large youthful with almost 70% being youth below the age of 35.  When we hear of demographic dividend as an engine for economic growth, it is in Ethiopia where this demographic dividend can be harvested.  The equally youthful new Prime Minister needs to warm up to the youth and engage in a structured conversation with them and listen to what they want or what they can contribute to their society.

Addis Ababa, the capital City is home to key think tanks and policy hubs of the continent—UNECA, AU, IPSS,[lxi] IGAD.  These are great opportunities. One does not need to invent the wheel when it comes to complex policy issues on climate change, security, industrialization, governance, social and economic transformation, urbanization, ICT, innovation and financing for development.  All these issues have been researched and documented by the named agencies.

 

 

Conclusion

We tried to present a cursory look at an enigmatic polity called Ethiopia.  We call it a preface to social, political and economic theory of Ethiopia from the Queen of Sheba to Dr. Abiy Ahmed. Those hearing about Ethiopia for the first time will learn one or two things about this polity that defies definition and easy conceptualization.  And for those who have made a profession studying Ethiopia, few more questions may be formulated.  For the Ethiopians, it may be an opportunity to wonder and say: “We never thought of ourselves this way!”

Ethiopia, has great potential and its new Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed has come at the right time when the country needs fresh insights to propel the country into the middle income level by 2025.  The key elements for this economic take off are there. But the political dynamics and economic policy bottlenecks need to be addressed. Some of these challenges have been addressed in these pages.  The prospects have also been explored. In the broader framework of “Africa rising narrative”,  Ethiopia offers a paradigm of what the rest of Africa can become, with some coordinated efforts and resilience.  For the investors who are looking for where to put their money, strike while the iron is hot.  Ethiopia, more than ever before, is ripe for massive foreign direct investment.  It will be a regional economic hub in the not so distant future.  To bless this new mood, even the little known regional body of Catholic Bishops of Association of Member Episcopal Conferences of Eastern and Africa (AMECEA) will be having their 19th Plenary Assembly from July 13th to July 23, 2018, Addis Ababa.  While this might on the surface look like a small religious event, it has a positive impact in boosting the image of Ethiopia on the global scene.  The Catholic Church has a following of over 1.2 billion members and still counting.  Even if a small section of this large constituency gathers, the impact is felt world-wide.

This event will also help to boost Ethiopia’s tourism industry, especially sacred tourism, in which for historical reasons, it has comparative advantage.

If Ethiopia can fix its social, economic and political challenges , it will provide a paradigm for the rest of the continent.  Ethiopia is a land of vibrant diversity, but it needs to promote equal dignity and peaceful unity, inspired by the cultural and religious values that mark Ethiopia.

These qualities form a foundation for social capital that is key to development. In a way Dr. Abiy embodies these qualities. If he continues on the current trajectory, there is no reason why he will not join the rest of distinguished leaders that have gone before him (their limitations not withstanding).  May the words of the Psalmist come true: “Ethiopia shall lift up its hands in prayer to God”, to celebrate the economic and political prosperity for all, but also to embrace divergent views and opinions.

Dr. Odomaro Mubangizi teaches social and political philosophy at the Institute of Philosophy and Theology, and he is Dean of the Department of Philosophy at the same institute. He is also Editor of the Justice, Peace and Environment Bulletin. What University and country, Addis Ababa University? (Question by professor  Sisay Asefa and found the article both promising and important for further research  and dialogue. I congratule Dr Odommaro as a fellow Africa deep understanding Ethiopia engema as he put it.

 

 

[i] See, Baye Felleke, Questions about the Kibre Negest.

[ii] This visit is recorded in 1Kings 10:1-1-13 and 2 Chronicles 9:1-12. Even Jesus quotes the visit in Mathew 12:42, Luke 11:31.

[iii] For a full narrative of this episode see Sir E. A. Wallis Budge (Trans.), The Queen of Sheba and He Only Son Menyelik  (Kebra Nagast), (Cambridge, Ontario: In Parenthesis Publications, 2000), pp. 21-40.

[iv] See, William Whiston (Translator), The Works of Josephus (Peabody, MA: Hendrickson Publishers, 1988), p. 224.

[v] Felleke, op. cit. p. 10.

[vi] For a scholarly discussion on Ethiopian Philosophy and its impact on African philosophy see, “The significance of Ethiopian philosophy for the problematics of an african philosophy”  in Claude Sumner & Samuel Wolde Yohannes (eds.), Perspectives in African Philosophy: An Anthology on “Problematics of an African Philosophy: Twenty Years After, 1976-1996”. Addis Ababa University 2002.

 

[vii] See Claude Sumner, African Philosophy (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 1998); Claude Sumner, Living Springs of Wisdom and Philosophy Volume II  The Ethiopian Sources of African Philosophy (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 1999); Claude Sumner, Living Springs of Wisdom and Philosophy Volume I Problematics of an African Philosophy (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 1999).

[viii] See Joseph Van De Loo, Guji Oromo Culture in Southern Ethiopia: Religious Capabilities in Rituals and Songs (Berlin: Dietrich Reimer Verlang, 1991).

[ix] For a detailed study of the political, social, cultural and economic life of Medieval Ethiopia and its interaction with European missionaries, See  Isabel Boavida (Editor), Hervé Pennec (Editor), Manuel João Ramos (Editor)

Pedro Páez’s History of Ethiopia, 1622, (Hakluyt Society, Third Series) 1st Edition,Volume 1& II (London: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd., 2011).

 

[x] For detailed study of the role of Jesuits in middle ages Ethiopia and their missionary strategies see, Festo Mkenda, S.J., Mission for Everyone: A Story of the Jesuits in Eastern Africa (1555-2012) (Nairobi: The Paulines Publications Africa, 2013); Philip Caraman, The Lost Empire: The Story of the Jesuits in Ethiopia 1555-1634 (London: Sidgwick & Jackson, 1985); Leonardo Cohen, The Missionary Strategies of the Jesuits in Ethiopia (1555-1632) (Wiesbaden: Harrossowitz Verlag, 2009); Ignacio Echaniz, S.J., Passion and Glory: A Flesh-and-bloos history of the Society of Jesus Volume II Summer 1581-1687 (Gujarat: Gujarat Sahitya Prakash, 1999).

[xi] See C. F. Beckingham and G. W. B. Huntingford, Some Records of Ethiopia, 1593-1646 (New York: Routledge, 2016), pp. xxxii-xlvii, 143-202.

[xii] For a detailed study of the work of Jesuits during the 16th and 17th Century, see William Young, ed., Letters of St. Ignatius of Loyola (Chicago: Loyola University Press, 1959); Philip Caraman, The Lost Empire: The Story of the Jesuits in Ethiopia, 1555–1634 (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1985); LaVerle Bennette Berry, The Solomonic Monarchy at Gonder, 1630–1755 (Boston: Boston University, 1976); Donald Crummey, Land and Society in the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia: From the Thirteenth to the Twentieth Century (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 2000); Donald Crummey, “Ethiopia in the Early Modern Period: Solomonic Monarchy and Christianity,” Journal of Early Modern History 8, no. 3/4 (December 1, 2004), 191–209; The best starting point for further research is Leonardo Cohen Shabot and Andreu Martinez d’Alos-Moner, “The Jesuit Mission in Ethiopia (16th–17th Centuries): An Analytical Bibliography,” Aethiopica 9 (2006), 190–212.  Dauril Alden, The Making of an Enterprise: The Society of Jesus in Portugal, Its Empire, and Beyond, 1540–1750 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1996); and Luke Clossey, Salvation and Globalization in the Early Jesuit Missions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008). Leonardo Cohen, The Missionary Strategies of the Jesuits in Ethiopia (1555–1632) (Wiesbaden: Harrassowitz, 2009).

[xiii] For details on these documents see Camillo Beccari, Notizia e Saggi Di Opere e Documenti Inediti Riguardanti La Storia Di Etiopia Durante i Secoli XVI, XVII e XVIII (Roma: Casa Editrice Italiana, 1903), 229–231; and Pennec, Des Jésuites Au Royaume Du Prêtre Jean, Ethiopie: Stratégies, Rencontres et Tentatives D’implantation, 1495–1633, 58–71.

 

[xiv] See, Richard Pankhurst, A Social History of Ethiopia: The Northern and Central Highland from Early Medieval Times to the Rise of Emporor Téwodros II (Addis Ababa: Institute of Ethiopian Studies, 1990); ———————–, Ethiopia a Cultural History (Woodford Green, 1955); ————————-,Economic History of Ethiopia (1800-1935), Addis Ababa, 1968); ————————————-, History of Ethiopian Towns from the Middle Ages to the Early Nineteenth Century (Wiesbaden, 1982).

[xv] Paul B. Henze, Layers of Time: A History of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa: Shama Books, 2004).

[xvi] See Matteo Salvadore, The African Prester John and the Birth of Ethiopian-European Relations, 1402-1555 (Transculturalisms, 1400-1700) 1st Edition

 

[xvii] Matteo Salvadore, The African Prester John and the Birth of Ethiopian-European Relations, 1402-1555 (London; Routledge, 2017).

[xviii] Mauro Forno, Cardinal Massaja and the Catholic Mission in Ethiopia (Nairobi: Paulines Publications Africa, 2013), p. 7.

[xix] Ibid., pp. 13-14, 77-80, 82-180.

[xx] Ibid., p. 10.

[xxi] See Donald Crummey, Priests and Politicians: Protestant and Catholic Missions in Orthodox Ethiopia 1830-1868 (London: Oxford University Press, 1972).

[xxii] Budge, E. A. W., A History of Ethiopia: Nubia and Abyssinia, 2 Volumes (London: 1928).  Several studies about the Oromo have been published: Asmarom Legesse, Oromo Democracy: An Indigenous African Political System (New Jersey: Red Sea Press, 2001); ————————-, Gada: Three Approaches to the Study of African Society (London: 1973); Deme Feyisa, “The Origin of the Oromo. A Reconsideration of the theory of the Cushitic roots,” in The Journal of Oromo Studies, vol. 5 No 1 and 2, July 1998; History of the Oromo to the Sixteenth Century (Oromo Culture and Tourism Bureau, 2006); Dirribi Demissie Bokku, Oromo Wisdom in Black Civilization (Addis Ababa: finfinne Printing & Publishing S. C., 2011).

[xxiii] See Donald N. Levine, Greater Ethiopia: The Evolution of A Multiethnic Society (Chicago & London: The University of Chicago Press, 1974).

[xxiv] William A. Shack, The Gurage: A People of the Ensete Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1966).  See also Gabreyesus Hailemariam, The Guragué and Their Culture (New York: Vantage Press, 1991).

[xxv] Daniel Teferra, Lessons of Peace and Development: Gurage Entrepreneurship in Ethiopia (UPA. 2008)

[xxvi] Dena Freeman and Alula Pankhurst (Eds.), Peripheral People: The Excluded Minorities of Ethiopia (London: Hurst and Company, 2003).

[xxvii] Alula Pankhurst, “Introduction: Dimensions of Marginalization”, in Ibid., pp. 1-26.

[xxviii] See Ezekiel Gebissa (Ed.), Contested Terrain: Oromo and Ethiopian Studies (Minnesota: Lutheran University Press, 2014).

[xxix] See Bahru Zewde, The Quest for Socialist Utopia: The Ethiopian Student Movement c. 1960-1974 (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University Press, 2014); Randi Rønning Balsvik, The Quest for Expression; State and the Univesity in Ethiopia under Three Regimes, 1952-2005 (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University Press, 2007).

[xxx] For a discussion on various revolutions that have taken place in Ethiopia see, John Markakis & Nega Ayele, Class and Revolution in Ethiopia (New Jersey: The Red Sea Press, 1986).

[xxxi] See Merera Gudina, “Autocratic/Authoritarian Culture and Transitional Politics in Ethipia” in Abdala Bujra (Ed.0, Political Culture, Governance & The State in Africa (Nairobi: DPMF, 2011), pp. 93-110.

[xxxii] Ibid., p. 112.

[xxxiii] Messay Kebede, Survival and Modernization: Ethiopia’s Enigmatic Present: A Philosophical Discourse (New Jersey: Red Sea Press, 1999).

[xxxiv] Ibid., p. 3.

[xxxv] Ibid.

[xxxvi] See, ibid., pp. 391-396.

[xxxvii] See, Aberra Jembe, An Introduction to the Legal History of Ethiopia 1434-1974 (Addis Ababa: Shama Books, 2012),pp. 33-38; 43-75.    On grass-roots justice in Ethiopia and how it is used in customary dispute resolution see, Alula Pankhurst & Getachew Assefa (Eds.), Grass-roots Justice in Ethiopia: The Contribution of Customary Dispute Resolution (Addis Ababa: Centre Français d’Études Éthiopiennes, 2008).

[xxxviii] See Jembere, op. cit., pp. 184-190.  The first attempt to compile the law was made by Emperor Zär’a Ya’eqob (1434-1468), see Ibid., pp. 183-184.

[xxxix] Fasil Nahum, Constitution for a Nation of Nations: The Ethiopian Prospect (New Jersey: The Red Sea Press, 1997), pp. 36-37.

[xl]For a detailed and scholarly study of how Emperor Haile Selassie shaped America’s foreign policy to Africa see, Theodore M. Vestal (PhD), The Lion of Judah in the New World: Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia and the Shaping of America’s Attitudes toward Africa (Oxford, England: Praeger, 2011).

[xli] For a detailed study of the role of Meles Zenawi and his EPRDF to the Economic growth of Ethiopia and its influence in the region see, Sarah Vaughan, “Federalism, Revolutionary Democracy and the Development State, 1991-2012” in Gérard Prunier & Éloie Ficquet (Eds.), Understanding Contemporary Ethiopia: Monarchy, Revolution and the Legacy of Meles Zenawi (London: Hurst & Company, 2015), pp. 283-311; Medhane Tadesse, “Making Sense of Ethiopia’s Regional Influence” in Ibid., pp. 333-356; René Lefort, “The Ethiopian Economy; The Developmental State vs. the Free Market”, ibid., pp. 357-394; Gérard Prunier, “The Meles Zenawi Era: From Revolutionary Marxism to State Developmentalism”, Ibid., pp. 415-437.

 

[xlii] See, Sarah Vaughan, “Federalism, Revolutionary Democracy and the Development State, 1991-2012, in Gérard Prunier & Éloie Ficquet, Op. cit., pp. 283-311.

[xliii] See, Gérard Prunier & Éloie Ficquet, “Introduction” in Ibid., p. 5-7.

[xliv] Ibid., p. 7.

[xlv] See. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy: Climate Resilience Strategy Agriculture and Forestry.  Addis Ababa, 2011.

[xlvi] See, Arkebe Oqubay, Made in Africa: Industrial Policy in Ethiopia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).

[xlvii] Ibid., p. 13.

[xlviii] APRM Country Review Report no. 14 African Peers Review Mechanism  Country Review Report Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia January 2011 (Midrand, South Africa: NEPAD, 2011), Foreword.

[xlix] See, ibid., pp. 262-272.

[l] Ibid., p. 65.

[li] Ibid.

[lii] Ibid., pp. 65-66.

[liii] Institute of Peace and Security Studies, Reforming for Peace: State of Peace and Security in Africa 2018 (Addis Ababa: Institute of Peace and Security Studies, 2018), p. 46.

[liv] Ibid.

[lv] See. Fasika Tadesse, “Hope Against Odds: Abiy will be Sworn-in as Ethiopia’s Next Prime Minister, on Monday” in Fortune  Vol. 18 No. 935, April, 1, 2018, pp. 1, 6, 56.

[lvi] See Brook Abdu, “Calm After the Storm” in The Reporter, Vol XXII No. 112/ April 28, 2018, pp. 1 & 36.

[lvii] See, Muluken Yewondwossen, “PM Abiy to Address Djibouti Parliament today” in Capital, Sunday April, 29, 2018, pp. 1 & 6.

[lviii] For a detailed report on his background, family, upbringing and career, see, Dawit Endashaw and Dawit Tolesa, “The Rise and Abiy “Abiyot” Ahmed” in The Reporter, March 31, 2018 Vol XXII No. 1123, pp. 1, 12-13, 33.

[lix] Ibid., p. 36.

[lx] See, Muliken Yewondwossen, “forex Crunch affecting FDI” in Capital, Sunday, April 29. 2018, p. 1 & 6.

[lxi] For instance Institute of Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) holds a Tana High Level Forum every year. This year’s theme was: Reforming of Peace and Security in Africa.  For details of 2018 Tana Papers and concept paper see, Institute for Peace and Security Studies, 2018 Tana Papers: A Collection of Policy Briefs: A wind of change? The Institutional Reform of the African Union and Africa’s Security Provision (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University, 2018).

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Subjecting Gondar to a Cycle of Assault is Tantamount to Dismantling Ethiopia

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(ጎንደርን የጦር አውድማ ማድረግ የሚያስከትለው መዘዝ ኢትዮጵያን ማጥፋት ነው)

                             Aklog Birara (Dr.)

“A life lived in fear is a life half lived,” a character in the 1992 Australian film “Strictly Ballroom,” attributed to the film’s director and co-writer, Baz Luhrmann.

Aklog Birara (Dr.)

On April 1, 2020, six months after atrocities were committed, most notably, against the Amhara population, Human Rights Watch wrote a compelling assessment under the title “Ethiopia; Justice Needed for Deadly October Violence.”

Reading this latest assessment by an unassailable human rights group, I asked myself when Ethiopians would live life without fear from their own government and from their own fellowman? An incurable optimist when it comes to Ethiopia, I said to myself, “This too shall pass.” I then learned that the Ethiopian federal Government has encircled the city of Gondar with heavily armed defense and security forces including tanks?

Last week, I signed a petition initiated by the United Nations Secretary General calling for and pleading with all nations and armed groups for a cease fire; and urging them not to initiate any conflict in the midst of a global pandemic.

Ethiopia is part and parcel of the global community of nations. Its government has an obligation to give priority to public health services using the country’s scarce financial and human resources equitably. The country’s authorities at any level of responsibility have a sacred duty to refrain from conducting military assault and other punitive measures against the civilian population under any pretext. The focus should be on public safety and not on power grab.

As it is, the pandemic is terrorizing Ethiopians, especially the poor, the disabled, children and the elderly. They need necessities such as water and foods and not bullets. They need health care workers, medicines and PPPs. It is gratifying to note that Ethiopians in the Diaspora are doing their level best to mobilize funds and PPPs in support of all Ethiopians.

It is clear from ground evidence that they Ethiopians do not need intimidating heavy weaponry including tanks and armored personnel that compound the terror that already exists. Assault on civilians is a form of terrorism.

Consider what other governments are doing at this time. In numerous countries including Uganda, national police, defense and security forces and civilians are mobilized to provide food and medicines in each village and town; and social distancing measures are strictly enforced. For a poor economy, this kind of measure by government officials ensures that ordinary citizens meet basic needs. Ethiopia can learn from Uganda.

Contrast what Uganda is doing with the Gondar sub-region of the Amhara region. Htttps://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2895761877173885&id, https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2895304517219621&id  shows Ethiopian armed personnel intimidating the civilian population in the town of Dabat, the Amhara region. It is reported by reliable sources in Gondar, Debre Tabor and Dabat that tanks and other heavy weaponry have been deployed in this area.

As far as I know, Dabat, the city of Gondar and other towns and cities in the Amhara region do not face invasion from external enemies, for instance Egypt, Turkey or Saudi Arabia that are rumored to be major suppliers to the illegal weapons trade in this and other regions of Ethiopia.

While I acknowledge the notion that, even under the best of times, Ethiopian society suffers from fake news supply and propagation across social media, the deployment of tanks and military personnel in Gondar and other vicinities of the Amhara region is extremely unwarranted, dangerous and deplorable.

By all accounts, Ethiopia’s religious and spiritual society needs officially encouraged and sanctioned resolution of local conflicts emanating from any internal group unlawful activities through mediation led by trusted spiritual leaders, elders, academics and other members of civil society. Ordinary citizens continue to plead for mediation and reconciliation now.

The common enemy that terrorizes the civilian population in Gondar and the rest of the Amhara region; and in fact, the entire country is the pandemic. Poverty makes matters worse. It therefore behooves the federal government of Ethiopia led by Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed to stop intimidating innocent civilians under the pretext of combatting lawlessness.

The latest assessment by Human Rights Watch shows systemic recurrence of human rights abuses in Ethiopia, most notably against the Amhara population, the poorest and the most marginalized in the entire country. Why punish it more? For what end?

One would have thought that Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year, in particular, and his emerging dominant Prosperity Party in general, would go after the culprits of the October, 2019 cold-blooded massacre; and hold them accountable for crimes against humanity. The current assault against the people of Gondar and other localities in the Amhara region is adding insult to injury. It is a form of regime-led terrorism that may lead to genocide.

Decisive action against those who murdered innocent civilians last October would have demonstrated not only to Ethiopians; but to the entire world a determination and resolve that the regime is not hesitant to apply the rule of law regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation. This action would have prevented recurring extrajudicial assaults, murders, abductions, jailings and persecutions of innocent civilians, especially the Amhara as well as the Gurage and other minority ethnic and indigenous people throughout Ethiopia. Selective assaults against them continue unabetted.

Tragically for the Ethiopian people, particularly for the millions of the Amhara population who work and live throughout Ethiopia, recurring murders, maiming, abductions, displacements and now the intimidating and the unconscionable deployment of tanks and defense forces encircling the city of Gondar at a time of a potentially catastrophic pandemic that is unfolding in Ethiopia have aggravated fear and dismay.

What is appalling further is this. Regardless of internal civilian poor governance conditions, to deploy federal military forces in Gondar at a time when the Secretary General of the United Nations is appealing to all nations already in civil conflict and war for cease fire is inexplicable. The federal government’s role and responsibility at this time is not to expand and deepen its power base through intimidation and harassment. Rather, it is to focus on public health services and on the provision of essentials, including water and food to the population. For this reason, the deployment of tanks and other weapons to Gondar is inhumane and appalling.

This latest deployment by the federal government makes life in “fear” and mistrust of authorities especially in Gondar and other parts of the Amhara region as “life half lived.”

Further, a decisive measure by the federal government following the wholesale massacres in October last year would have conveyed a powerful message to Ethiopia’s external adversaries, especially the Egyptian regime that Ethiopia’s affliction emanating from ethnic and religious polarization is no more tolerated. Instead, ethnic polarization is more pronounced under the Abiy regime. I ask, who is advising the regime?

Tragically, and as Human Rights Watch reported, “The Ethiopian government has made little progress in investigating the deadly October 2019 violence and in acting to prevent further security force abuses and inter-communal violence. Six months later, victims and their families from two towns in the Oromia region still seek justice for abuses committed by security forces and violent mobs.”

Another way of putting the above is that the government of Ethiopia has practically normalized human rights abuses, selective ethnic cleansing, elimination of opponents and other abuses even at a time when the entire world community faces the Coronavirus epidemic that rich countries are unable to cope with. In October 2019, Jawar Mohammed, still an insider and “king maker” in Ethiopia’s ethnic politics posted venomous and hatemongering dictions accusing the Abiy government that it withdrew a security contingent afforded to him at Ethiopian tax payer’s expense. I know of no other government that subsidizes home grown terrorists, ultra-nationalists and agents of fundamentalism.

In the rampage and savagery that followed Jawar Mohammed’s call for revenge, 86 innocent civilians, most of them Amhara or of mixed backgrounds were massacred. These murders took place primarily in Oromia, Harari regions and in Dire Dawa.

There are numerous examples of crimes against humanity perpetrated on the Amhara population. Throughout the 1990s. For example, young and child bearing Amhara girls were compelled by the TPLF regime and their supporters in the Amhara region to take prescriptions or drugs that made them infertile or childless.

The federal government’s census declared to parliament that 2.5 million Amhara disappeared inexplicably. This number was later estimated by demographers and economists to exceed 5 million Amhara. Where did these Amhara go? Is the current assault and intimidation in Gondar, Wollo and Gojjam part of the strategy to strangulate and reduce the Amhara population?

As part of the ploy to marginalize the Amhara population, the TPLF implanted deliberate and systematic propaganda creating divisions between and amongst the Amhara, Kimant and other indigenous people in the Amhara region who share the same language, religion, culture and history. At one-point, regional authorities were persuaded to send large numbers of people from the Kimant community for military and security training in Tigray. This is part of the core problem. No one except the TPLF and other ethno-nationalists will gain from this scheme.

Long before the TPLF and its ethnic allies took power in 1991, the TPLF massacred thousands of Amhara farmers, youth and others in the Amhara region. It forcibly evicted large numbers of peasant families. It annexed and incorporated large tracts of fertile lands into the Tigray region.

The abduction of 17 university students on December 4, 2019 by an unknown and well-armed abductor remains unresolved. In this incident the abductors cordoned off a bus with students on board leaving for their homes from the University of Dembi Dolo and fled.  in the Oromia region. These students are predominantly Amhara. It is reported that they boarded the bus in an attempt to save their lives from ethnic-based murders, rapes and violence.

Reuters, the Washington Post, the Miami Herald and other newspapers reported the abductions widely. Ethiopians within and outside the country protested this abduction; and demanded Ethiopian federal government search and rescue to no avail. The whereabouts and fate of these students remains unknown for more than five months.

Despite pleas from parents and expressions of outrage from a broad spectrum of Ethiopians, the federal government of Ethiopia has proven to be incapable of rescuing the abducted students, most of them girls from poor Amhara families.

I find it extraordinary that such an incapable regime that can’t go after abductors in Oromia is quick to respond to alleged lawlessness in Gondar and the rest of the Amhara region.

I am not a member or financier of the Fanno organization. But it is important to note that the Fanno movement’s resurgence is a consequence of these and other assaults on the Amhara population; and especially the annexation of Amhara lands by the TPLF.

This is a snapshot that explains the reason why millions of Ethiopians do not trust regional and federal police, security forces and defense. Trust in government at all levels is literally degraded. The case of abducted students shows that victims of any sort of abuse and violence have nowhere to go. It is that bad. Trust in authorities at any level emanates not from fear; but from honest, dedicated, competent corruption-free public services.

Dismissing facts and atrocities does not engender trust in authorities in any country. I admire and endorse the conclusion reached by Human Rights Watch, and the following statement from its Horn of Africa Director who said this.  “The Ethiopian authorities can’t brush the killing and maiming of scores of people, the destruction of homes and businesses, and attacks on hospitals under the carpet….To ensure that upcoming elections can be held safely and securely, the government needs to accelerate its investigations into the October violence and bring those responsible for abuses to justice.”

A repeat of the October, 2019 massacre is poised to take place in the Gondar sub-region of the Amhara region. I remind the reader to pose a moment and look back at the events and revolt before the TPLF was deposed from power; and before Prime Minister Dr. Abiy took the helm.

Young people in the entire Amhara region, most prominently in Debre Tabor, Gondar and Bahir Dar sacrificed their lives. Scores and scores of people, most of them young were massacred by TPLF and allied security personnel. Despite the atrocities that remain uninvestigated, Amhara youth in the city of Gondar rose up to the occasion; and identified with their Oromo brothers and sisters under the banner “Oromo blood is our blood.”

Why so? Because the Amhara region, its people and the entire population suffered immensely from demonization; from persecutions and ethnic cleansing; from deliberate marginalization; from under investment of social and economic infrastructure; from the lack of job generating enterprises including industrial parks; and from land grab and incorporation into Greater Tigray.

The people, especially youth felt and hoped that there will be “light at the end of the tunnel” under Abiy’s leadership. However, the leadership structure and the personnel who run the Amhara regional state remained intact—-totally subservient to the TPLF that created the Amhara party; and now to the Prosperity Party, successor to the TPLF.

There is a plethora of evidence to show that the structure of the economy in Gondar, Debre Tabor, Dessie and other parts of the Amhara region remains stagnant. Youth do not find meaningful jobs. Ordinary citizens suffer from personal insecurity, lawlessness, theft, bribery, illicit trade including arms smuggling. Today, the entire population is terrorized by the pandemic.

In June last year, the Amhara region lost its competent leaders who had shown a high level of dedication to Amhara and Ethiopian causes. Yet, these promising Ethiopians were gunned down deliberately and systematically in Bahir Dar. The consequences remain far reaching. Among these is the fact that the Amhara people are deprived of caring and empathetic leaders. They are effectively made rudderless.

To this day, no one that I am aware of has been held accountable for these crimes. The unfathomable explanation that “Amhara brothers killed their own kin and kith” does not hold.

Fast forward to March, 2020. The entire world is threatened by an unpresented pandemic that has claimed the lives of 78,000 people as of April 7, 2020. Contrast this trend with what happened in other pandemics. In 1915-1926, Encephalitis Lethargica claimed an estimated 1,500,000 lives.  In 1918, the so-called Spanish flu claimed an estimated 100, 000,000 million lives. In 2009, the Swine flu took a toll on 575,000 lives.

The economic cost in the United States alone is forecast at $6 trillion. Unemployment currently estimated at 13 percent is forecast to rise to 30 percent or more.

This pandemic also scientifically known as COVID-19 is projected to last between 12-18 months. Life as we know it before this epidemic is unlikely to become normal event after a vaccine is identified.

Here, I should like to remind the Ethiopian people and the rest of Black Africa that African governments should never allow their people to serve as guinea pigs for experimental drugs no matter the temptation and regardless of incentives.

COVID-19 is most likely to shape the future of globalization in general and relations among nations in particular. The devastating impacts of the pandemic on public health, the economy, investments, transport, trade, tourism, culture, religion, personal and family behavior, and psychological attitudes of peoples across the globe towards one another are changing rapidly, and some experts say, irreversibly. Sovereignty and self-preservation are at a premium.

In the light of this trend, geopolitical and social transformational factors within countries, for example, huge investments in public health, might compel each nation; and the entire globe eventually to rethink the whole meaning of growth, development and investment as well as relations among nations.

Some experts argue that we should abandon the theory and practice of globalization as a force for good. This is due to the perception that globalization is the source of the pandemic; and therefore, of death and destruction. This may be unfair and unwise.

Part of the problem for this unfortunate perception is that, the world today lacks global statesmen and women to galvanize the scientific community in solving global problems including the current pandemic. Debt levels will rise dramatically. At least 90 countries have approached the IMF for financial support.

COVID-19 is a momentous occurrence that compels government leaders and civil society to rethink the way we live with one another in each and every country; and the way we deal with catastrophic incidents across national boundaries.

This leads me to the ethnic-federal system in Ethiopia that makes the pandemic even more troubling. Tribalists, ethno-nationalists and fundamentalists in Ethiopia and the rest of Sub-Sharan Africa should reflect and acknowledge that the way forward is to embrace the Quaker wisdom, “There is that of God (humanity) in every person.” If Ethiopians respect and accept one another as human beings; their chances of survival will be far greater.

We do not have to be religious or spiritual to acknowledge one another as human beings. We don’t have to believe in God to reject tribalism, sectarianism and exclusion. Today, we are witnessing in the richest and most powerful nation on the planet that COVID-19 treats everyone—white, black, brown, yellow, rich and poor, old and young, male and female equally and mercilessly. Who would have thought that the United States will be unable to meet the demand for personal protection equipment for its health workforce?

Poor nations can mitigate risks. This is why I suggest this simple policy. Let us stop war and warmongering against anyone and for any political reason at any cost. Because, civil conflict compounds the punishment to which we may be blind.

My point is to underscore the seriousness of the latest scourge; and to urge the government of Ethiopia not to aggravate the situation by conducting any form of military action against any group within the country.

It is clear from eye witness accounts that there is lawlessness in numerous parts of Ethiopia including the Amhara region. However, and contrary to assertions by regional and federal authorities, the Fanno organization cannot be blamed for lawlessness. This lawlessness is in part a function of the inability, incompetence and corruption of the Amhara regional administration. The federal government cannot compensate for this incompetence by deploying defense and security forces under any pretext.

For example, as I highlighted above, Gondar and vicinities have enjoyed a semblance of peace and stability, in large part because of the bridging and policing roles of Amhara youth including a large component of the Fanno organization. I am not saying that there are no culprits within the organization that take advantage of poor governance. Why not only identity culprits and hold them accountable; and at the same time apply parity by holding any culprit throughout Ethiopia? Don’t discriminate!!!

It is equally important to recognize that Ethiopia’s porous and unprotected border to the Sudan is defended by indigenous people including Fanno. So, why not differentiate the bad from the good and resolve local conflicts in Gondar and other places through peaceful means? Is it not time to try reconciliation as an option rather brute force?

Why succumb to the desires and wishes of the TPLF hard core that is accountable for the massacres of hundreds of thousands of Amhara over the past 40 plus years; and for the annexations of large tracts of Amhara lands? Why not deal with the core policy and structural issues rather than with the symptoms?

If the allegations are true; I would find it reprehensible that federal security and defense forces would be deployed against the civilian population of Gondar and other Amhara localities at a time when regional and federal authorities must and should be using all scarce financial and human capital resources to protect the lives of the population against the current pandemic.

In my considered opinion, an assault against the people of Gondar and other places, especially at this time in history, is tantamount to crimes against humanity.

I urge the federal government to withdraw security and defense forces from Gondar. Their sole responsibility is to defend Ethiopia’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and to ensure the security of its citizens.

An assault on the people of Gondar under any pretext is an assault on the entire Amhara population.

I am in favor of disarmament of all non-defense, security, federal and police forces; but oppose selective and discriminatory disarmament. The Amhara regional administration’s call for disarmament of Amhara farmers, youth, the Fanno Organization and others without addressing the core policy and structural problems in the region, and especially in Gondar is sinister. It is intended to further disempower the Amhara population and to make it vulnerable for social and economic strangulation.

Leaders and cadres of the Amhara Democratic Party that traces its formation to the TPLF; and has now morphed into a branch of the Prosperity Party are accountable for crimes being committed against the people of Gondar and the rest of the Amhara region.

The Ethiopian federal government has a critical role in strengthening the sovereign power of Ethiopia’s multinational state; and in serving as a major agent of democratic governance and as an engine of transformation of the country’s fragile economy. I see no justification for military involvement in Gondar and the rest of the Amhara region.

I therefore urge Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed to apply wisdom in governance; adhere closely  to the same principle of inclusion and embrace (መደመር) in Gondar and the rest of the Amhara region; withdraw tanks and military forces from Gondar as soon as possible; and refrain further from any and all assaults on one of the most impoverished regions in Ethiopia.

I urge the world community, especially human rights organizations, the AU, EU and the UN system to monitor and to investigate current and future military deployments by Ethiopia’s federal government against civilians; and urge the regime from any military and paramilitary assaults against innocent people, and to stop ethnic cleansing and repressions in Ethiopia.

Last but not least, I advise and urge Amhara youth to stop falling into a trap by being privy to the deliberate demonization campaign of the Amhara through social media; and by fragmenting itself into villages and regions.

The only way to save the Amhara people from annihilation is unity.

 

April 8, 2020

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WHO is Responsible for America’s Lack of COVID-19 Preparedness? Not Tedros Adhanom. Donald Trump, That’s Who!

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives. As I have said many times, we look at it from a pure health standpoint. We make a recommendation. Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes it’s not. But we — it is what it is. We are where we are right now.” Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, April 12, 2020.

As Trump points an accusatory finger at Adhanom, he fails to see three fat fingers are pointing at him

I do not believe there is a more severe and vociferous critic of Tedors Adhanom, the Director General of the World Health Organization, than myself.

I opposed Adhanom when his name was wafted in cyberspace and on the airwaves as a possible candidate for the top WHO job in 2016. My opposition to him has continued ever since. My past criticisms of Adhanom shall stand or fall in the court of world public opinion on their own merits.

Now, I rise to defend the very man I have criticized relentlessly for years.

To be sure, I do not so much defend Tedros Adhanom the WHO official as I do the principle of fair play. I don’t believe in playing dirty to win.

Donald Trump revels in playing dirty to win.

Trump and his wolfpack of liars, con artists and dissemblers are hellbent on making Tedors Adhanom the fall guy in their futile effort to cover up Trump’s own criminal negligence in failing to protect the American national health interest.

The indisputable fact is this: TEDROS ADHANOM, W.H.O. DIRECTOR GENERAL, IS NOT IN ANY WAY RESPONSIBLE FOR AMERICA’S LACK OF PREPAREDNESS IN DEALING WITH THE COVID-19 CRISIS.

Donald J. Trump is 100% responsible for America’s lack of preparedness to deal with the COVID-19 crises!

Because of Trump’s criminal negligence and depraved indifference to saving American lives, in just three weeks the U.S. is leading the world in COVID-19 infections and deaths.

As of this writing, Worldometer Coronavirus reported the U.S. has 535,591 cases of the global 1,810,827 for a whopping 30 percent of all cases. Total global deaths are 112, 222 of which 21,409 (almost 20%) are Americans.

It is conservatively estimated that between 100-250,000 Americans could die as a result of COVID-19 infections.

I am not surprised Trump is looking for scapegoat to pin he blame for his incompetence and utter moral depravity in the face of COVID-19.

But has there ever been a time Trump took responsibility for his mess?

The hallmark of Trump’s presidential leadership has ALWAYS been avoiding accountability like the plague (pun intended).

When Trump is held to account — when his feet are held to the fire — he pulls out his raggedy “Blame everyone but me” bag of tricks.

In 2018, Trump disbanded the White House pandemic response team and when asked if he took responsibility for that in March 2020, Trump said, “I don’t take responsibility at all.”

It is laughable Trump should expect anything from W.H.O.

When has Trump ever shown concern for global health?

Trump ran his presidential campaign railing against the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, North American Free Trade Organization, the World Trade Organization, the Paris Accords and so many others.

In September 2018, Trump told the UN General Assembly,

America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism. Around the world, responsible nations must defend against threats to sovereignty not just from global governance, but also from other, new forms of coercion and domination.

Today, facing criticism for his incompetence and moral depravity in the face of COVID-19, Trump champions “globalism” and damns “The W.H.O. really blew it.”

No, TRUMP REALLY BLEW IT.

Thousands of Americans have died and continue to die because Donald Trump blew it by ignoring and trivializing repeated warnings on severity of the COVID-19 threat.

When has Trump ever shown concern for the health of Americans?

Last month, Trump’s Justice Department asked the U.S. Supreme Court  to completely eliminate the Affordable Health care Act (“Obamacare”). If the Court agrees, millions of Americans would lose health care or face very high health insurance costs. That would likely mean, given the 17 million unemployed today, over 50 million Americans will have no health care insurance.

To add insult to injury, last week Trump cut funding for widespread COVID-19 testing, perhaps the most important tool in fighting the pandemic forcing many cities and states to shut down facilities.

But why would Trump cut funding for testing?

Simply stated, if there is more testing, more cases will be discovered. If more cases are discovered, Trump believes his chances of re-election will vanish into thin air. Trump wants to keep up the appearance of low infection and death rates.

While cutting testing funds for everyone, Trump at the White House set a “rapid coronavirus test” to be given to anyone coming into contact with him.

Why is a “rapid coronavirus test” good for Trump but not good enough for 320 million Americans?

Over the past decade and half, there have been numerous scientific studies, conferences and calls by experts and leaders warning about inevitable pandemics with devastating impact on human health and enormous disruptions to the global economy.

In 2014 President Barack Obama facing the Ebola crises warned:

We were lucky with H1N1 that it did not prove to be more deadly. We can’t say we’re lucky with Ebola because obviously it’s having a devastating effect in West Africa, but it is not airborne in its transmission.

There may and likely will come a time in which we have both an airborne disease that is deadly. And in order for us to deal with that effectively, we have to put in place an infrastructure, not just here at home, but globally that allows us to isolate it quickly, see it quickly, respond to it quickly.

So that if and when a new strain of flu, like the Spanish flu, crops up five years from now or a decade from now, we’ve made the investment and we’re further along to be able to catch it.

It’s a smart investment for us to make. It’s not just insurance; it is knowing that down the road we’re gonna continue to have problems like this – particularly in a globalised world where you move from one side of the world to the other in a day.

So it’s important now, but it’s also important for our future and our children’s future, and our grandchildren’s future.

Of course, Trump is obsessed with obliterating anything Obama has done.

Trump calls himself the master of the “art of the deal”.

In fact, he is the grand master of the art of demonization, dehumanization, polarization, vulgarization, personalization, marginalization, infantilization, fictionalization, trivialization, dramatization and demoralization.

Now that he finds himself cornered like a rat in the COVID-19 trap, he and his gang of con artists want to pin the blame for his incompetence and moral depravity on someone else.

Trump tweeted, “The W.H.O. really blew it. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look. Fortunately, I rejected their advice on keeping our borders open to China early on. Why did they give us such a faulty recommendation?”

John Bolton, war hawk and Trump’s former national security adviser joined tweeting, “The @WHO is an accomplice to China’s massive coverup of Covid19. That’s why I support efforts by @marcorubio & @tedcruz pushing for resignation of WHO director general. He misled the world by blindly trusting a communist regime intent on deception.”

Republican Senator Marco Rubio tweeted: “Head of WHO says: “Our greatest enemy right now is not the virus itself. It’s fear, rumors & stigma…We do not see evidence as yet that the virus is spreading freely in communities. When @WhiteHouse says something similar they are accused of incompetence & “downplaying” threat.”

Duh! Rubio says W.H.O. and the White House are saying the same thing: COVID-19 is not “the enemy right now.”

Trump now wants to pin the blame on W.H.O.’s tail for downplaying the threat.

“Lying” Ted Cruz, the Republican senator from Texas chimed in, “It is deeply troubling @WHO  Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu is helping the Chinese Communist Party obfuscate the origins and trajectory of #COVID19, at the risk of health around the globe.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator for South Carolina threatened, “I’m not going to support funding the WHO under its current leadership,” because “it’s in America’s best interest to withhold funding because they have failed miserably when it comes to the coronavirus.”

National Review, a conservative publication joined proclaiming, “The WHO has lent its imprimatur to Chinese disinformation and blessed China’s slow response to its domestic outbreak, which likely caused a 20-fold increase in cases” and urged a congressional investigation into “Chinese influence on the WHO.”

So, the Republican Congressional Theater of the Absurd and Hypocrisy continues.

Trump’s attempt to make Adhanom America’s COVID-19 boogeyman is transparent and contemptible but very much in character.

Trump’s message is simply this: “The man from the shithole continent is responsible for America’s lack of preparedness to meet the COVID-19.”

The fact of the matter is that Trump who campaigned to “make America great” is now turning America into a COVID-19 graveyard.

The indisputable fact is Trump has a heart of stone and cares about no one but himself. He is a pathological narcissist interested only in Trump, Trump’s ego and Trump’s re-election.

Trump dismissively declared keeping US COVID-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a “very good job”.

Why is Trump aggressively promoting hydroxychloroquine (anti-malaria medication) when the medical evidence shows it is ineffective or downright dangerous in the treatment of COVID-19?

Could it be because “several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president” and Trump himself?

Why is Trump pushing to “open America for business” against the best medical advice and the broad consensus of the states’ governors?

Trump believes the loss of a few hundred thousand deaths is an acceptable price to get people back to work so he can brag the economy is doing “tremendous, very tremendous.”

Trump, the master of the “art of the deal”, would bargain hundreds of thousands of lives for marginal economic gains at the drop of a hat.

If Trump had any trace of humanity in him, he would not have ignored all the warnings and alarms bells rung by members of his own administration and others.

On May 15, 2018, Representatives Gerry Connolly (D-VA) and Ami Bera (D-CA), members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, sent a letter to National Security Advisor John Bolton urging the Trump Administration to reverse its retreat on global health security. They warned, “We fear these recent decisions will leave the United States vulnerable to pandemics and commit us to a strategy of triage should one occur.”

In October 2019, Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services issued a report based on simulations of  influenza pandemic concluding  federal pandemic preparations are insufficient, inadequately funded and in conflict with one another.

A full year before the COVID-19 crises, a January 29, 2019 an intelligence report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned, “The United States will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.”

On January 29, 2020, Peter Navarro, Trump’s economic advisor, in a Memorandum to the National Security Council warned, “There is an increasing probability of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls.”

newly released report from the inspector general for the Department of Health and Human Services paints a devastating portrait of the Trump administration’s failures during the coronavirus pandemic.

On April 7, 2020, Trump went on the warpath against the Inspector General tweeting, “Why didn’t the I.G., who spent 8 years with the Obama Administration (Did she Report on the failed H1N1 Swine Flu debacle where 17,000 people died?), want to talk to the Admirals, Generals, V.P. & others in charge, before doing her report. Another Fake Dossier!”

Trump NEVER, NEVER took the COVID-19 threat seriously. He downplayed it. He ignored it. He sugarcoated and whitewashed it.

Now, Trump wants to make Tedros Adhanom and W.H.O. his whipping boys.

For Trump, COVID-19 has always been a big joke. He said it will be all over when the weather gets warmer.

He was dismissive of suggestions for better preparation and his mouth oozed with a torrent of lies, damned lies and statistical lies.

He blathered about how the virus was “under control” and how he knew it was a pandemic before it was called a pandemic.” He assured the people “we are doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

COVID-19 has not gone away but to date over 22 thousand Americans have gone away forever.

From the White House in the United States of Denial-istan, Trump has proclaimed coronavirus is the liberals’ “new hoax” and nothing to worry about as COVID-19 spread like wildfire in America:

“This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” January 22, 2020.

“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” January 30, 2020.

“We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.”  February 10, 2020.

“Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” February 14, 2020.

“There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus.  So, we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” February 23, 2020.

“We have it very much under control in this country.” February 24, 2020.

“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” February 26, 2020.

“So, we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So, we’ve had very good luck.” February 26, 2020.

“And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” February 26, 2020.

“I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” February 26, 2020. February 27, 2020.

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders. February 26, 2020.

“And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.”  March 4, 2020.

“[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” March 4, 2020.

“Well, I think the 3.4% [dead patients worldwide] is really a false number.” March 7, 2020.

“So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” March 9, 2020.

March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”  March 10, 2020.

The coming to pass of prophesy

The Pale Horse of the Apocalypse rides in every nation of the world today.

In America, our technological prowess, expensive medicines, learned men and women and even military might cannot save us from an invisible virus.

No one knows when the COVID-19 crises will be over. Every day, Trump blathers and dithers cluelessly.

The national government under Trump’s befuddled leadership has made America an object of pity and the laughingstock of the world.

Luckily, the state governor’s led by Governors Andrew Cuomo of N.Y. State and Gavin Newsom of California continue to provide effective leadership in the COVID-19 fight.

Would America have been in the mess it now finds itself in had it been President Andrew Cuomo? The answer is self-evident!

When Trump points an accusatory finger at Tedros Adhanom, he should beware three fingers are pointing at him for America’s lack of preparedness for the COVID-19 silent invasion and thousands of American deaths!

But the day when America will be caught with its pants down was prophesied by H. L. Mencken nearly a century ago.

Mencken, (a/k/a the “sage of Baltimore”, the “Voltaire of America”) was an iconoclastic commentator with extraordinary insights into the American people and American politics.

In his book Notes on Democracy (1926) [an absolute must read for anyone interested in taking a hard look at American democracy], Mencken warned Americans against the kind of empty-headed demagogue who would preach pseudo-patriotism (“Make America Great Again!”) and become president and send the country to hell in a handbasket.

Mencken wrote:

As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

That great and glorious day Mencken prophesied is darkness at noon in America today. We now have Trump adorning the White House.

In the memorable words of Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does.”

So it is with a moron!

 

The post WHO is Responsible for America’s Lack of COVID-19 Preparedness? Not Tedros Adhanom. Donald Trump, That’s Who! appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Ethiopia fighting two viruses. Yilma Bekele

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Yilma Bekele

We have no idea how the Coronavirus is going to play out in our country. There are a few things we have learned the last few months. None of it bode well for our country. We are witnessing the havoc it can create even in the advanced countries of the west. The third world is left with nothing except prayers to whatever deity we happen to worship. Our country is awfully unprepared for such a devastating epidemic. Let alone a new virus like covid-19 we have not managed to silence the scourge of Malaria, smallpox or locust plague.

Ethiopia has been left rudderless for the last fifty years. Both the notorious Derg and the gangster Woyane were kept very busy scheming on how to stay in power leaving them no time to plan and govern. The welfare of our people and country were secondary considerations so we were left to nature to fend for ourselves. Today we have a very powerful and ugly enemy and we have no resources whatsoever to fight back. We have no one to even ask why did you let this happen because we were never asked to choose the ones to be entrusted with such power over us. Ever since time Ethiopian leaders grabbed power by other means, not the ballot box. So you see there is no one in charge that has thought of such eventualities and prepared to save our precious people.

Today we Ethiopians are left on our own to face this calamity of untold dimension. Being stressed does not explain our state of mind. Our country is awfully unprepared to even teach our people about basic hygiene and the concept of ‘social distancing’ in a proper manner. There is no one with clear authority to lead the charge and our people are definitely not equipped either physically or mentaaly to face the unseen enemy. It is under such dire situations that the current government is trying hard to ring the alarm bells. It does not have much resources to spare to put up a fight. We hope at minimum they will be able to handle the security of our people, but unfortunately that can not be guaranteed.

What we are not totally prepared for is to fight two enemies at one time. Covid-19 is formidable but it looks like the other virus called Woyane has reared its head at this unfortunate time. I am of course upset about two ancient criminals -Tedros Adahanom Gebreyesus and Seyoum Mesfin that are taking our attention away from the task at hand and throwing Ethiopia’s name under the bus to extricate themselves from the hole they have dug for themselves. We Ethiopians remember well the actions of Tedros and Mesfin when they were in charge of our country. You will not find many Ethiopians with fond memories of these spineless individuals that served the evil genius as errand boys. I have no time, intention nor the strength to list the crimes they have committed against our people but let me mention the basics.

Tedros is not a medical doctor but he likes to be addressed as Doctor. He has never administered a pill to a single human to relieve pain but he has caused untold pains when he was appointed as Health Minister by the dead tyrant. There are no trails of accomplishment and monuments to his work when he was in charge of our health system. None. There are trails of ethnicity, cover up of Cholera outbreaks, distribution of unproven medication and many more. He was another cadre skilled at fleecing the foreign donors, stocking his Ministry with his ethnic base, handing out foreign aid money to buy loyalty and punish perceived opponents like the rest of his comrades. But he was loyal to the tyrant and the ruling clique. He was proud to announce”Je suis Woyane!” On his Facebook page, why he said it in French is not clear.

His party assigned him to be Foreign Minister while warlord Seyoum left his position to be Ambassador to China. That is the way our country functioned. Haile Mariam has taken over after the tyrant’s death and Woyane was moving its assets to face the new situation. This gave a chance for Tedros to furbish his credentials among African leaders and build his resume. His sole mission was to serve the politburo and plan his future since Woyane days as a ruling clique was showing cracks. Serving Ethiopia was not part of the equation. For all practical purposes the fact that he has no training in foreign affairs and international diplomacy did not stop him from stepping to the plate. Like the time he took the job of Health Minister without being involved in public health or having proven organizational skills to shepherd such a bureaucracy, being a Foreign Minister was not such a crazy idea.

Well the job paid off. He was presented as the darling of Africa supported by People’s Republic China and African dictators. His interview for the job was a surreal experience where he proved he was not ready for this important organization that is tasked to protect humanity. He was not coherent to the extent of not being able to understand the question asked by some of the best experts in the world. But China wanted him bad and he was appointed for a five year term. Please note that plenty of Ethiopians protested in Europe and America, signed petitions and warned the international community about the nature of the Woyane TPLF party official and his being unfit to lead such a venerable organization.

The last month or so the Director came under scrutiny due to the mismanagement of the Coronavirus introduction to the world. This is how Politico magazine put it “Without China’s deceit and WHO’s solicitude for Beijing, the outbreak might have been more limited, and the world at the very least would have had more time to react to the virus”. That is the issue he has been asked to explain to the world. He has been called to answer why WHO was late declaring the world pandemic. He is being asked to explain why this happened under his watch? They are all legitimate questions that need fact based answers and explanations on how decisions are made inside such a vital organization. At a time like this when humanity as a whole is threatened with extinction WHO means more than ever to the marginalized counties of Africa, Asia and the indigenious in South America.

The Director did not rise to the challenge. Instead of gathering his team and addressing the concerns of humanity in a humble and professional manner in an internationally broadcasted press conference the gentleman digressed and went somewhere out where we don’t normally go. Instead of ignoring the evil forces in his head that are whispering conspiracy, intrigues and visions of darkness he succumbed to the easy shameful way out and bareed his empty soul in public. How sad. The Director talked about death, martyrdom and accused the Republic of China (Taiwan) of racism for calling for his ouster. Needless to say the leaders of Taiwan were upset, puzzled and angry and demanded his apology in the absence of any proof for the grave charges he leveled. That is how he was trained to deal with adversity. He reverted to the classic Woyane offense. It consists of demeaning your opponent, questioning motivation, spreading blame and finally pulling out the ethnic card when all else fails. That is what he did. I am surprised he didn’t say it is because he is Tigrai. Could somebody tell him ‘Negro’ is not acceptable. Now on top of Corona Taiwan has to deal with the unenviable situation of being seen as racist in an international setting. To serve the People’s Republic of China our Tedros is throwing Ethiopia under the bus and pushing poor Taiwan as a bonus. I am hoping the Ethiopian Government will use its connections and assure Taiwan that Ethiopia does not agree with such a bizarre statement and it does not reflect the sentiments of our people.

The other pest we have to deal with at this point in time is Syoum Mesfin the war lord and loyal lieutenant to the nameless tyrant. He showed up on youtube to rewrite history and whitewash his criminal accomplishments. He came out of retirement to gaslight the Ethiopian people. Let me define gaslighting for you. Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation in which a person seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or in members of a targeted group, making them question their own memory, perception, and sanity. We are very familiar with this Woyane tactic. The gangster organization revised the history of our country to fit their made up version. In a matter of twenty years we were reduced from a proud nation with a long history to a collection of bantustans having nothing in common and no shared vision.

That is what Seyoum is attempting to do in a two part interview on youtube. It was a performance worth an Oscar. In a very low and measured tone he went on to revise the history we made together. How he can say these things with a straight face is an acquired trait. That is how he survived the mafia group and the constant purges the tyrant used to practice to keep them loyal. Lying is second nature to Woyane which they encouraged, cultivated and planted in our country. Sad to say it has taken roots. Any way he lied about Badme, lied about the hydroelectric dam they stuck us with and lied about his old boss (which he probably despises), lied about the toxic relationship with our neighbors he masterminded and many more. The only thing he told true was his name; the rest was all made up subject to change under close scrutiny. His lie about the Algiers Agreement was the crown jewel of his delusion. We have the video showing him dancing celebrating victory which the next day we discovered was totally wrong. What’s more he still holds a grudge against his old comrade the Eriterians. They kicked his ass. Maybe our forces should not have come to the rescue so fast. Maybe we should have met them halfway down and pushed them back. His diplomatic failure and inability to assess the situation was the cause of war that took the lives of thousands of Ethiopians and Eritreans. Under ordinary circumstances he should have been fired for dereliction of duty both before and after the war.

The foreign office under Seyoum was a fiefdom he was given by the tyrant. He ruled it with an iron hand moving Ambassadors like a chess piece. His diplomatic foray was feeble and did not serve the interest of our country and people. His party used our troops to fight other people’s war all over Africa and Woyane even fleeced the payments to our soldiers. His diplomatic effort in South Sudan, Darfur, Somalia were all failures that weakened our nation. As usual his interview was full of innuendos, shades and passive aggressive statements in real Woyane fashion. They just plant the doubt and let their trolls build on the lie. His description of events that include the new PM is mind boggling. You would think he would be a little indebted to the one person that allowed him to retire quietly instead of facing a court of law – makes you wonder what gives him the gumption. The Ethiopian people have told him and his group to leave us alone. It is becoming obvious they are not willing to stand down. We have to decide whether to tolerate or do what is necessary to silence these recurring viruses. Seyoum obviously is refusing to sit back and collect the enormous retirement he does not deserve.

As for our nation it looks like we are back to square one a year and half after declaring freedom from tyranny and dictatorship. It is a little embarrassing to complain and cry after going delirious with joy, happiness and hope for the future. It did not work out well did it? The answer is no. Expecting anything worthwhile to come out of a palace coup has never been a recipe for change. Time has proven it to be a correct assessment. There is no freedom without justice. In our case those that collaborated with the criminals, those that enabled the gangsters became the new freedom advocates. The political parties changed their name, the individuals changed their alignment and top cadre leaders and their minions were sent to their provincial capital without even a reprimand. Overall our revolution failed. We sacrificed so much and so many with nothing to show for it. We failed Ethiopia again. Time to give it another try.

Today we really do not know how many Ethiopians might die. We have no model of our own to predict and mitigate. Our epidemiologists are expected to conclude without adequate data, our doctors, nurses and clinicians are expected to cure without medicine and help without protection. Like the times we used to fool the world by announcing double digit economic progress today we are throwing out numbers that seem to minimize the problem ahead.

So the numbers coming out of our country are a little strange and a lot alarming. I would error on the side of the unknown instead of assumptions. You see we do not have adequate resources to address the cause of death of so many of our people. The simple answer is we do not keep track of the cause of death. Based on our experience during the HIV Aids epidemic families do not discuss such matters. Today there are a few things we can point out regarding the virus path to our country. The returnees from the Middle, our Airline that never stooped the shuttle, our extensive trade with China to the village level and our capital city serving as a hub for travels into Africa are the telltale signs of Corona movement. It is too late to stop it from afar but it could be made to cause lees havoc. It is a good time to come up with public service messages to teach our people the different prescriptions being advocated by experts and make it fit our particular situation.

The regime is standing on one leg and on a shaky surface too. The ground it is standing on can be compared to a volcano that is coming alive. Gases, steam and molten lava are trying to escape and blow off the top. The Shashemene incident, the Burayu shame, the Church burnings, ethnic clashes, kidnappings of students, and vile threats from all corners are the signs of the turmoil. Today politically we still have not defined what the problem is let alone work on the solution. I am afraid Covid-19 is going to change the picture in a very different manner. The US is predicting up to a 100K or more fatalities. They could have done better but no matter even a quarter of that is a big number. We have no reason to expect our country could escape this. We have every reason to fear the number will become unbearable. It is not too late to start conversation about what kind of Ethiopia will emerge. Would it be de ja vu time or a new dawn for Ethiopia. Let us hope reason prevails.

The post Ethiopia fighting two viruses. Yilma Bekele appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

The international media’s misrepresentation of Ethiopia on the GERD

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MEKDELAWIT MESSAY DERIBE @MEKDI_MESSAY

Addis Abeba, April 14/2020 – Following the renewed disagreement between Egypt and Ethiopia over  the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) after the failed Washington talks, it seems like the international media have given the utmost attention to the issue. While the spotlight on the GERD is very welcome, I have been observing increasingly strong mischaracterization of Ethiopia and its stand in many of these media outlets.

Many of these outlets have in one way or another used similar language to misrepresent Ethiopia. I will provide the details below. But generally speaking, besides the Egyptian media whose usual approach is being a propaganda machine of the state, even those international media which would be expected to be objective and neutral such as the National Post, Bloomberg, New York Times, the Independent, Washington Post, VoA all, in one way or another have portrayed Ethiopia as acting unilaterally in declaring to fill the dam without an agreement, creating facts on the ground, skipping the last Washington meeting deliberately and as plotting to become a hegemon in the Nile. It is such misrepresentation of facts and character that has been working in Egypt’s favor and to Ethiopia’s detriment. So, I thought it is of utmost importance to shed a light on and address some of these mischaracterizations and defamation on Ethiopia’s stance. I will address three major points in this article.

Utilizing the Nile: Whose Right?

The first point is on the claim that Egypt “also” has the right to the water of the Nile. The Egyptian media especially has been fanning this flame, stating that Egypt “also” has the right to its fair share of the Nile. This is quite honestly amusing precisely because Egypt has been denying the same rights it seeks now from the other 9 or arguably 10 (including Sudan) riparian countries for ages.

Secondly, the claim Egypt mentions regarding their “right” to the water pertains to the 1959 bilateral “agreement” signed between Egypt and Sudan allocating the entire flow of the Nile exclusively between them. This agreement gives Egypt the lion’s share of the Nile waters, 55.5 BCM out of the 84 BCM of the Nile waters, denying the other upstream countries even a drop, including Ethiopia which contributes 86% of the Nile waters. Is this really a “right”?

It is a longstanding principle of international law that states should reasonably and equitably use transboundary waters. But there is nothing reasonable or equitable about the 1959 arrangement. For a country touting it demands “reasonable and equitable use” of a shared watercourse, clinging to such an “agreement” is quite absurd.

Thirdly, no one really denied Egypt’s right and fair share to the Nile water, certainly not Ethiopia. The emphasis should, however, be on the phrases “fair share” which can only come out of a reasonable and equitable utilization which is inclusive of all the eleven countries and not an exclusive bilateral colonial treaty between the two downstream countries.

Filling of the GERD: Missing the Point!

My second point is on the claim that Ethiopia is acting unilaterally in deciding to fill the GERD as per schedule starting July 2020 without the three countries reaching an agreement. This sentiment was also echoed, to put it mildly, by the US treasury which was “handling” the talks between the three countries. I only have one thing to say to this: The Declaration of Principles on the GERD (D0P) Principle V. The DoP provides the general principle regarding the first filling and annual operation of the GERD. It states that:

The Three Countries, in the spirit of cooperation, will utilize the final outcomes of the joint studies, to be conducted as per the recommendations of the [International Panel of Experts] IPoE Report and agreed upon by the [Tripartite National Committee] TNC, to: 

  1. Agree on guidelines and rules on the first filling of GERD which shall cover all different scenarios, in parallel with the construction of GERD.
  2.  Agree on guidelines and rules for the annual operation of GERD, which the
    owner of the dam may adjust from time to time.”

Regardless of this stipulation, however, Egypt seeks to have an agreement on the long-term operation of the dam which has implications on water allocation discussions instead of focusing the discussion on the first filling and annual operation of the dam. The DoP clearly states these negotiations on the first filling and annual operation should go in parallel with the construction phase. The negotiation and the studies mentioned in the DoP have been lagging behind the construction for reasons I cannot get into in this article which mainly related to Egypt’s insistence to impose its colonial wish on Ethiopia.

However, the time has now come in the stage of the construction phase where filling needs to happen. Therefore, when Ethiopia goes ahead and starts first filling in July, it should be noted that its actions are in line with the DoP, which Egypt and Sudan both signed. If anything, this principle of the DoP should have been an incentive for Egypt to want to reach an agreement before the filling starts but it seems like it has been following the exact opposite strategy of dragging its legs in the negotiation. One can site the meeting in Addis Ababa in September 2019; when the three countries almost reached an agreement on the technical details of the filling and Egypt backed out of this near success, making the issue political and taking it international by bringing the matter to the U.S. There is no legal, moral or logical reason for Ethiopia to pay for the political ill will and lack of good faith in negotiation on Egypt’s side. Ethiopia is not unilaterally deciding to proceed with the first filling of the GERD for it is backed by the DoP the three countries signed.

Who aspires to be a hegemon on the Nile?

My third point is in the characterization of Ethiopia as plotting to be the sole controller of the Nile water and a hegemon in the region. Unlike other upstream nations in other basins, Ethiopia has not clung to its natural advantage of being an upstream country. Being a source of 86 percent of the Nile water, it has not claimed absolute territorial sovereignty over the water in its boundaries. This would have meant that Ethiopia could do whatever it pleased with the water in its boundaries. Although some nationalists might resort to this extreme attitude out of desperation of historic injustice, it is, however, not Ethiopia’s official stand. Ethiopia strongly believes and has shown not just in words but deeds its commitment to the principles of equitable and reasonable use.

Under customary international water law Ethiopia would only be required to notify and share relevant data with downstream countries on the filling and operation of the GERD. This is a courtesy that Egypt did not extend to Ethiopia nor the other upper riparian states when it was developing its numerous water infrastructures on the Nile and diverting the river out of its natural course.

In sharp contrast to this, Ethiopia went beyond what is expected and took the initiative in making sure the fears and worries of downstream countries concerning the GERD were fully addressed in the form of making documents available, establishing the International Panel of Experts (IPoE), as well as initiating the establishment of the Tripartite national committee (TNC) and even going as far as changing the design of the saddle dam of the project. In addition, Ethiopia has accepted and accommodated almost all recommendations of the IPoE.

On the larger scheme of things, Ethiopia’s sign of goodwill and dedication to the fair and equitable utilization principle can also be seen in the deferment of the ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement on the Nile (CFA) at a time when Egypt was being rocked by internal political struggle. It can be seen in the willingness to negotiate in the filling of the dam, extending the filling time up to 7 years when Ethiopia could fill it in 3 years notwithstanding the ridiculous claims of filling the dam in 12-20 years from the Egyptian side. If it was the case that Ethiopia had the design of being the sole controller of the Nile water or a hegemon in the region, all the concessions that Ethiopia had been making in good faith would not have been necessary. However, it is the intrinsic fear and mistrust ever-present in the narrative of Egypt that results in such statements that are actually a reflection of their own ambitions. It is therefore unfortunate that the international media has turned a blind eye to the objective truth and rather echoes Egypt’s narrative as usual.

The Solution

The stand of Egypt regarding the Nile waters has always been the same. History so far has shown and is showing that Egypt will only engage in an agreement as long as it keeps the status quo, the status quo being the 1959 “Agreement”. Yet, this claim to this “agreement” does not have any legal, political or moral basis to be imposed on non-signatory states who have been objecting to the “deal” in its entirety.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969 (i.e. the Vienna convention) clearly states that “an obligation arises for a third state from a provision of a treaty if the parties to the treaty intend the provision to be the means of establishing the obligation and the third State expressly accepts that obligation in writing.” There is nothing ambiguous about this article. As parties not privy to the 1959 “Agreement”, Ethiopia and the other upstream countries categorically denounce any obligation to it. Thus, clinging to the 1959 Treaty is going against the law and common sense.

If there was a genuine goodwill to come to an equitable water use instead of maintaining the status quo , Egypt would have acceded to the CFA. If there was sincere political will on Egypt’s side to come to an agreement with its brother riparian states, the three countries could have resolved the GERD dispute by themselves. There was no need for Egypt to take the GERD talks outside outside the three countries, outside Africa, beyond the African Union, to Washington, DC where Egypt feels it has leverage.

If there was a genuine willingness to come to a fair and equitable arrangement, Egypt would not have shifted the negotiation on the filling of the GERD into a water allocation issue and changing goalposts again and again. Even the fact that Egypt considers war and conflict as a “possible” option while negotiation and diplomacy is being placed as the first and last solution by Ethiopia speaks volumes on the values held by these countries. What is needed is  fair and serious talks as aptly put by Ethiopia`s minister of foreign affairs, Gedu Andargachew.

Water allocation, utilization, and management of a transboundary river basin is an issue that should be decided with all the basin countries in the equation, not between a subset of the countries and most definitely not hinging on a single project regardless of the significance of the project. If indeed Egypt is not guilty of ambitions of being a hegemon in the region or  in control of the whole of the Nile water and  if it has  genuine interest in the  fair and equitable use of the Nile , then the avenue is still open. Come back to the table and agree to the CFA. That is the only proper medium where we can collectively talk about water allocation. Until that happens, enough with the mischaracterization and playing the victim, when in fact a tremendous of goodwill and courtesy has been and is being extended towards Egypt for the sake of peace and brotherhood. We have lived together for thousands of years, tied by this lifeline of a river that is the Nile and we will live so for thousands more. The only way forward is together. AS 


Editor’s Note: Mekdelawit Messay Deribe is an independent scholar researching on the Nile. She can be reached at mekdelawitmessay@gmail.com

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Lockdown: Proposal  Ethiopia Under Siege by Cororna Pandemics

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By Dawit Giorgis

Ethiopia is a pioneer in the development of an institutionalized capacity to deal with natural and man-made disasters. Many countries in Africa took Ethiopia as a model for establishing their capacity to deal with disasters including epidemics and pandemics.  It was this capacty that was intially establsihed in 1974 (Relief and Rehabilitation Commission: RRC) and then went through a series of reforms, that enabled Ethiopia to manage successfully the largest and most complicated international humanitarian operations since the Second World War. The entire international community hailed it as a success story.  Many books have been written about this operation. It was an international effort, which brought East and West and the rest of the world together. It was a time when the world could afford to focus on Ethiopia, affected by severe drought, ongoing war and shortage of food and public services. It was this experince that made a necessary wake up call to the world.  Though Europe and America had their own local emergency management systems, they were caught ill prepared in responding to humanitarian crisis of that magnitude, outside their own borders. It was only after this tragedy and lessons learnt, that they made significant changes to remodel their international response capacities. It was this experience that made disaster management to be included in the curricula of colleges and universities. Disaster management was not being taught in schools until after 1986. I myself directly assisted several African countries in establishing their institutional capacity in Risk and Disaster Management and in some cases headed the response to the humanitarian crisis.

Politics aside Ethiopia had the institution, the experience and the expertise to handle such huge crisis like the COVID-19, though this was unique and universal.  In Ethiopia this institution has been politicized and praising the RRC and maintaining it, has been taken, as acknowledging Mengistu’s regime, though RRC operated independently from the government. It was allowed to be so because of the political circumstances and the internationalization of the crisis.  (Read: Red Tears: A book authored by me, dealing mostly with this operation)  The government (TPLF)

which took over  refused   to acknowledge the success of this institution and went to the extetnt of ablosihing it while many other countries were emulataing it.  Like the USA, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), with which RRC has worked very closely, it would have been the agency that could have played the central role in times of crisis like the current Corona crisis.  RRC was built for this and there were hundreds of people with a proven track record, who were trained and were in the front tline in the most diffcult times in our history.

Ethiopia  is considered one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. During the last few years Ethiopia  has experienced natural disasters such as drought, conflict, refugees and internal displacements,  floods, crop infestation, epidemics and environmental degradation . The hazard profile of Ethiopia is a consequence of its poverty, diverse environment  and the many wars and conflicts in the Horn of Africa over the lastt 30 -50 years. The combination of man made and natural disasters have  caused enormous suffering to our people.

Crisis like epidemics and pandemcis,  does not necessarily cause disasters on its own. It is peoples and governments inability to respond effectively to vulnerability that makes disasters.  The combination of hazards and vulnerabilities present in any risk scenario is socially generated over time. It is individuals and organizations, and governments that influence patterns of disaster risk. Their actions and interactions dtermine the level of impact of the crisis and increases disaster risk. Peoples and governments often become aware of their own contributions to disaster risk only after the effects are felt.

I have always  stated:  “ for  leaders, to be able to respond in an appropriate and timely fashion to a national crisis. they must have the confidence in the structure and system that is in place and the people who provide information. This means having a well organized, equipped coordinating structure with a  well considered arsenal of options at the disposal of the leadership and the financial and material resources with which to act, and the administrative mechanism capable of responding promptly and effectively.”

At this moment in time, when Ethiopia and indeed the world is being challenged by the most severe pandemics in recent world history,  the major agenda of the Ethiopian government should be to establish policies and  build the human and institutional capacity to plan and  implement a well conceived response for which the appropriate preparations have been made in advance.  Ethiopia had the lead time to prepare for this response. Time was on its side, but no more. Now it may be  running out of time and might be too late for millions.  Not mcuh is known what the government has being doing in terms of preparation since the crisis was first anounced by the World Health Organization (WHO). On March 1, WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, pointing to the over 118,000 cases of the coronavirus illness in over 110 countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread.

Preparedness is a process of contingency planning and capacity building. It involves several activities. The major compnenets are:

 

  • Institutional and Policy Framework
  • Early Warning
  • Information and Communication System
  • Resource Base
  • Response Mechanism

 

Ethiopia had all the three above. The other two are dtermined by the partcualr challenges faced but the sytems for resource mobilization and response were in place since 1974. Today Ethiopia is caught ill prepared. During this ime of crisis RRC type of independent  non partisan organization would have presented the government with a well considered options for execution including lockdowns. Since there is no institution that can play this role,  a National  Task Force composed of the most senior and capable people (not politcians)  which includes experts, need to be organzed.

 

Africa has not been affected in a  way that was expected.  So far and against most predictions, the anticipated wave of infections and death has not yet taken place.  “It is a bit strange. Eerie. No one is sure what to make of it” said Dr Evan Shoul, an infectous disease specialist in Johannesburg, South Africa. Across the continent many doctors are asking the same questions. “ I think the more people we test, the more we will reveal whether it is an aberration, or it is real. The numbers are not yet there:” Precious  Matotso, from the WHO,  on the sisutaion in Africa. There is a general acknowledgment that it is very irresponsible  to reach any conclusions about the spread of the virus in Africa. People should not be com0000placent based on limited early data. Let us be on the side of caution and do what needs to be done.

 

 

LOCKDOWN

 

A lockdown is an emergency protocol that prevents people from leaving their homes shelters and areas. A complete lockdown will force people  to stay where they are and not exit or enter a building or a given area.

 

Based on the information that is provided to us by  WHO and CDC there is no other better option than  complete  lockdown, possibly phased, for countries like Ethiopia to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is nothing better  than extreme social distancing to help individuals stay healthy, and to break the chain of transmission – giving more vulnerable populations a fighting chance of surviving this pandemic. The government will define Essential Services.

 

But how exactly does a lockdown work? And why is it important for even younger and healthier people, who face a lower risk of severe illness, to remain in their homes as much as possible?There is a lot of literature on the subject that responsible leaders should be reading today!!! Not knwing is not an excuse for leaders and infact can be a criminal behaviour The Goal of lockdown is Mitigation and Supression

 

The countries that have undergone lockdowns and the various study’s models show that, painful as lockdown may be, it has worked for millions in many parts of the wrold. Without any lockdown and social distancing measures we can only expect maximum infection and mortality

 

For Africa, where most countries have relatively weak health systems, and  millions of unemployed homeless people, the slow arrival of COVID-19 bought precious time to prepare. In collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Africa Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Ethiopia can now consder the bitter but necessry meaures. Time is of the essence, and urgent action to prevent an epidemic should be the overriding objective.

 

Based on the information available to the public, there is no other option except to go through weeks of lockdown with focus in the urban areas of the country   in order to slowdown the outbreak and prevent the full impact of the spread of the virus; which means millions of lives being lost with all the social political and security implications. There will essentially be two phases to the lockdown:

Phase One:  A committee composed of senior experienced people and experts in many fields, from Ethiopia and the diaspora need to be established to conduct an urgent feasibility study in consultation with the government, on the need of partial or complete lockdown in Ethiopia and how it can be implemented.  Its recommendation will be submitted. The government would be expected to take actions. It may have been done already but if it has not, it needs to be done immediately. The so-called emergency response declared by the parliament on 11 April is a timid response and will not solve any of the problems that the COVID-19 poses. It is pointless to comment on it.

Phase Two: This aspect of the work will require creative ideas. After the recommendation on the details of complete, possibly  phased lock down, has been approved   the government is expected to establish, by law, a National Task Force, composed of the military, the police, the regional militias, public health officers, epidemiologists, doctors, capacity building experts, disaster and risk management experts, logistics experts, supply chain management experts, social workers, nutritionists and mayors, civil engineers, in different relevant fields across ‘kilil’ and ethnic lines,  to oversee the implementation with full mandate and authority. The plan will include one of the hardest tasks of registering all the people in the three groups identified below, identifying free spaces for installation of tents and shelters, identifying schools and vacant or underutilized buildings, construction of shelters, compiling the logistics needed to move people to these shelters, blankets, mattresses, medical supplies, water tankers, cooking material, voluntary labors for the operation, transporting people and then making an international appeal for logistics and food supplies…etc.

The focus of the LOCKDOWN in Ethiopia should be this segment of the population, particularly in the urban areas. While people with incomes and shelters are simply expected to adhere to the lockdown guidelines issued and enforced by the government, the most challenging part, which will have the full attention of the Task Force, will be the three categories of people.

  1. Those that will continue to be paid by their employers for the duration but live in very crowded houses and slums
  2. Those who will lose whatever job they have and have no shelters or live in slums i.e. street vendors
  3. Those homeless people who never had homes or incomes

At the outset it must be accepted that based on the experiences of  USA, UK, Asia and other African countries, those affected by the virus and dying because of it are disproportionally   the poor and the marginalized population. How can these people self isolate when they have no homes and live on the streets or in make shift shelters, or live cramped and shared accommodation? How can people study on line when the great majority of Ethiopian students dot have and access to Internet or don’t even know how to handle the Internet.  How can they stop working when they have no other means to survive, to feed themselves and their families?

In the USA as the disease spread at a higher rate in the black community, environmental, economic and political factors compounded for generations, put  “black people at higher risk of chronic conditions that leave lungs weak and immune systems vulnerable: asthma, heart disease, hypertension and diabetes. In Milwaukee, simply being black means your life expectancy is 14 years shorter, on average, than someone white. “

 

There are lots of details in this operation that focuses mainly on these categories of people. Ethiopia has many kinds of organizations at grassroots level, in rural and urban areas. In urban areas there are ‘kebeles,’  ‘idirs,’ and many kinds of social organizations either in the form of NGOs or just associations, which can be effective partners. In rural Ethiopia there are even more organized association like the Gada system in the Oromo regions, peasant associations and several national NGOs working with the people. These could also be an integral part of The National Task Force.

Lots of ideas will emerge as open discussions begin  with people of different expertise and experience.   Getting the resources will not be the most challenging. The WFP, UNICEF, WHO etc. and some bilateral governments will be part of the Task Force if the government asks them. This is going to require the full and unmitigated support of the international community and the diaspora and I am quite certain they will be prepared to provide food and essentials. Asking for direct money from the international community will make the operation suspect to corruption. The efforts should be to get what we need in kind. The most challenging part is the organizational capacity to mobilize the local and international resources and to effectively distribute and provide the services required. That will be the responsibility of The National Task Force. Not Easy!!! But can be done.

Isolation and Hygiene: Once the issue of sheltering and feeding is sorted out the issue of how these people and the general public is expected to adhere to the guidelines of the lock down, i.e. hygiene, distance keeping and treatment when cases are identified., need to be addressed. In other words, the shelter arrangement should enable people to wash their hands keep their hygiene and at the same time keep distance from one another.  If this cannot be done the whole purpose will be defeated. Even with the availability of the means to manage hygiene and keep distance from other people,  there will still be people who do not adhere to these guidelines. Therefore enforcement would be necessary. This part can be considered together with the next point.

Law and Order: In all these exercises and from the day that the decision has been made for a complete or partial phased lockdown there will be several security threats. There will almost certainly be some unruly elements that will start looting, vandalizing and in these highly etnhicized situation of Ethiopia, even politicize the crisis and destabilize the nation. This is a national issue and people should not be allowed to play politics.  The government will be required to take decisive steps. Here again government should learn from other country’s experience. I.e. (Kenya, South Africa, Rwanda and India) we do not wish the enforcers to be part of the problems. Training and accountability are important components of this responsibility. Particular attention should be given to the large number of criminals that have been released without any means of monitoring their activities and assurances that they will not go back to their criminal lives.

I am not trying to make it look easy. It is complicated and very sensitive but there are no other options to reduce the spread of the virus and the number of deaths. The Lockdown must be meticulously planned and coordinated vertically and horizontally. There should not be any room for mistakes, misunderstandings or lack of coordination. This is not the job for political cadres or activists. This is the job of purely hard working compassionate educated experienced and motivated people. The functions of every sector  and every individual must be clearly defined and  backed by  authority and resources. If attempts are made to politicize the operation, either by the central government or the regional authorities, the whole thing might collapse and might end up being a bigger disaster than the virus could have caused.  The biggest mistake a government can make in such times of crisis is to lie  to its people. There must be trust between government and the people, at least during the duration of the  pandemics gripping the nation.

The government needs to have complete ceasefires immediately and should refrain itself from waging unwarranted conflicts. All conflicting parties must agree to some kind of truce. This is the paramount duty of the government. Such kinds of humanitarian operations cannot be successfully conducted in the midst of conflicts.

Ethiopia has enormous experience in mobilizing people for war and for other emergencies. In 1974 RRC established over 110 feeding centers and shelters for over 3 million people across the country. It was able to shelter, feed, and provide medical services for over two years with the support of the international community. During the Ethio-Somali war in 1978 the government brought together over 300, 000 young people from across the country in one month and provided a 3 month military training at Tatek and prepared them  for war, all in a matter of four moths. The people of Addis cooked and fed these recruits for the entire duration of the training. Ethiopia was able to repel the aggression as a result of the cooperation of the people of Ethiopia. Again between 1982 and 1985 during, the well known famine relief operation, the RRC with the unprecedented cooperation of the international community fed and cared for over 6 million people in various shelters across Ethiopia. Millions more were helped in their homes and villages. These experiences show that our people have the resilience, the experience and the capacity to be organized to provide assistance to those that will be disproportionally be affected by the virus and the lockdown. What it takes is well considered decisions and leadership

Lockdowns come together with the declaration of state of emergencies. State of emergencies by themselves does not solve the problems. State of emergencies creates the necessary conditions to implement emergency and much needed operations. It means governments have extraordinary powers to do what they deem necessary without any checks and balances. Authoritarian leaders use state of emergencies to suppress freedom of speech  and expression, lockup opposition leaders, curtail the free movement and restrict all activities that gives them a political advantage. That has been the experience in numerous countries. In times like this when people are at the mercy of God and their leaders they are in lesser positions to fight this back. We just hope that leaders will exercise maximum wisdom and compassion and retrain from abusing their powers.

Lockdowns should go together with testing, The effects of lockdowns will be much reduced if it is accompanied by wide spread speedy tests. Testing, Testing, Testing is the key to prevention, mitigation  and containment. At the moment people in Ethiopia are made to believe that testing is imprisonment. Information should be ahead of this to educate the people that testing is being done not in prison but in clinics with due care for the benefit of the people. People  are running away because  they have been wrongly informed that it is indefinite harsh confinement in some weird places. Stigmatization will also be another problem. In some places in Africa people avoid,  abuse and chase people suspected of corona virus infection.  Government, through the Task Force should also be educating people that infection by corona virus can happen to any body and clearly explain the way it is transmitted. Coughing was no longer a normal thing as people now associated it with the virus. One person said, “I was used to people coughing and it was normal.  Now it is  not normal. We run away.”

As of today the United Sates has the largest number of infections and deaths of the corona virus The US has the highest number of confirmed cases, with a death toll of more than 20,000. Global confirmed cases stand at almost 1.7 million, with more than 100,000 deaths. The US has overtaken Italy to become the country with the highest number of confirmed cases, with more than 20,000 deaths.

Washington Post wrote on April 4: “It did not have to happen this way. Though not perfectly prepared, the United States had more expertise, resources, plans and epidemiological experience than dozens of countries that ultimately fared far better in fending off the virus “  It is all about speed and bold decisions. This is unlike any disaster.  It does not just come and go. It will be there for a while.  The decisions taken will exacerbate the economic situation of the people but it will save lives. The government will be judged on what it did to day to save the lives of the people not what it did the to save the already faltering economy. The government can take this as an opportunity to revive the unity of its people and come out of this crisis with lessons learnt on the need for unity and be in a better situation for the economic recovery of the nation.

It is extraordinary times. It needs extraordinary decisions.  It is all about leadership. All eyes are on the leaders more so when the crisis becomes more intense. The challenge of leaders is to listen to people and experts not themselves. In the meantime let us stay positive and be united.

END

Dawit  W Giorgis, Visiting Scholar , Boston University

African Studies Center

 

 

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G-20 Partially Responds To PM Abiy’s COVID-19 Africa Rescue Proposal: Let’s Give Credit Where it is Due

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

PM Abiy (“Africa’s First Responder”) Ahmed

On March 24, 2020, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, proposed a three-point plan to the G-20 to proactively deal with the inevitable health, economic and social fallout of the COVID-19 crises in Africa.

The first prong of the plan aims to create an “Africa Global COVID-19 Emergency Financing Package” to deal with the crushing USD 44 billion interest payment African countries are carrying today on their outstanding loans, which exceeds the continental budget for all health care expenses. The package would include USD 150 billion for increased budgetary support from the World Bank and balance of support payments from the International Monetary Fund. It would also require trade financing, working capital support, etc. from the International Finance Corporation.

The second prong consists of a Global Health Emergency Package which would engage the World Health Organization in strengthening the public health sector in Africa by increasing emergency preparedness and financing of health equipment purchases by the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and malaria.

The third prong proposes writing off all interest payment on government loans, partial debt write-off for low-income countries and conversion of the remaining debt into long term low interest loans with 10 years grace period before payment. Moreover, all debt repayments will be limited to 10% of the value of exports.

On March 25, 2020, PM Abiy used the Financial Times as a pulpit to aggressively push the debt burden issue in Africa must be addressed with the fierce urgency of now.

Advanced economies are unveiling unprecedented economic stimulus packages. African countries, by contrast, lack the wherewithal to make similarly meaningful interventions. Yet if the virus is not defeated in Africa, it will only bounce back to the rest of the world. There is a need to establish a facility to provide budgetary support to African countries. The issue of resolving Africa’s debt burden also needs to be put back on the table as a matter of urgency.

On April 14, 2020, PM Abiy delivered a second salvo in an op-ed piece in Bloomberg arguing the first step in Africa’s post-COVID-19 reconstruction is “debt relief for all of Africa. Africa needs an immediate emergency fiscal stimulus worth $100 billion in addition to the International Monetary Fund’s already programmed $50 billion of regular support to tackle the crisis. The crisis will not be short-lived: Additional support over the next two to three years is required.”

On April 15, 2020, G-20 finance ministers, after conducting a virtual meeting on the global economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, issued a Communique consistent with the core set of proposals presented by PM Abiy including, among others:

Time-bound suspension of debt service payments for the poorest countries that request forbearance effective May 1, 2020 and lasting through at least December 2020 with possible extension.

Temporary doubling of annual access limits to IMF emergency facilities (Rapid Financing Instrument / Rapid Credit Facility) to provide financing to countries with urgent balance-of-payments needs and support IMF’s readiness to mobilize its US$1 trillion lending capacity to meet members’ needs through augmenting existing programs or new programs.

Take emergency trade measures designed to tackle COVID-19 that avoid barriers to trade or disruption to global supply chains.

Provide substantial support to businesses, especially small and medium sized enterprises, and households most affected by the COVID-19 crisis.

Ensure sustainable public finances and repairing government balance sheets to ensure they are sufficiently robust to address future shocks.

Make targeted investment programs in the health sector in coordination with specialized institutions such as the WHO.

David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group welcomed the “temporary debt relief worth around $20 billion to low-income countries” but warned that “much more is needed”.  The debt relief suspension includes $8 billion from private sector creditors. The  G-20 called on other private lenders to voluntarily “participate in the initiative on comparable terms.”

On April 15, 2020, the International Monetary Fund  approved six months of debt service relief for 25 low-income countries, including 19 in Africa.

Africa’s #2 deadly enemy today, after COVID-19, is crushing foreign debt

Foreign/external debt, the Black Horseman of the Apocalypse, is riding right behind the Pale Horseman of COVID-19 toting despair, gloom and doom for the people of Africa.

The total amount of external debt for the African continent is estimated at USD $417bn.

Nearly one-half of all sub-Saharan African countries are said to be on the verge of insolvency unable to service their debts and with little change of paying it all.

The World Bank has classified 18 African countries as at high risk of debt distress, where debt-to-GDP ratios surpass 50%.

PM Abiy’s three-point plan is a wake-up call for all African countries of an impending doom catalyzed by COVID-19 crises and a clarion call to the G-20 that without their help a large percentage of the 1.2 billion people in Africa will likely face imminent existential threat.

The handwriting is on the wall. As PM Abiy warned, “If the virus is not defeated in Africa, it will only bounce back to the rest of the world.”

As he observed in his Nobel speech, “I am my brother’s keeper. I am my sister’s keeper. For you to have a peaceful night, your neighbor shall have a peaceful night as well.”

For the world to be free from the COVID-19 plague, Africa must be free of the COVID-19 plague. Africa cannot remain sick and the rest of the world healthy.

Such is the intertwining of the fate of Africans with the rest of the world. COVID-19 has leveled the playing field and the lines are clearly marked. There is one and only one war. The invisible armies of COVID-19 against the Human Race. The choice is clear: The Human Race shall defeat the Vi-Race or the beginning of the race for the end of the Human Race in pandemics shall have begun.

I am deeply disappointed African leaders are not lifting their voices to be heard. To my knowledge, not a single African leader has taken to the international court of public opinion and pleaded Africa’s cause and case in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.

It could be that other African leaders have stepped back because PM Abiy’s voice as a Nobel Peace Laureate could command broader global attention. But that is no excuse for all African leaders to come forward and help PM Abiy do the heavy lifting.

That is why I wish to see all African leaders “lift their voice” and let the world know that we are ONE: “Facing the rising sun of our new day begun/Let us march on ’til victory is won” against COVID-19.

Let us give credit and show gratitude to PM Abiy

In December 2018, I wrote a commentary entitled, “Thank You PM Abiy Ahmed for All You Have Done for Ethiopia!” in which I personally thanked PM Abiy for what he has done in Ethiopia and reflected on the virtues of gratitude.

In April 2020, I wish to thank PM Abiy for all he has done to s,ound the alarm on the Pale COVD-19 Horseman of the Apocalypse stalking Africa and organize Africa’s first responders.

I have previously called PM Abiy Ahmed Africa’s First Responder. In June 2019, when Sudanese forces indiscriminately fired into crowds of unarmed pro-democracy street demonstrators, killing and wounding hundreds, Sudan was on the verge of civil war. PM Abiy Ahmed came to the rescue and saved the day when he got contending Sudanese factions to form a unity government.

On March 15, 2020, PM Abiy became Africa’s First Responder in the War on COVID-19. He was able to talk to Jack Ma, Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group, and make arrangements to expedite delivery of critical medical supplies in anticipation of the COVID-19 invasion of Africa.  Ethiopian Airlines airlifted from China “5.4 million face masks, kits for 1.08 million detection tests, 40,000 sets of protective clothing and 60,000 sets of protective face shields.”

Each of the continent’s 54 nations received 20,000 testing kits, 100,000 masks and 1,000 protective suits in the fight to contain the spread of the virus.

By March 23, Ethiopian Airlines (a/k/a “Africa’s Air Force in the COVID-19 War”) was delivering the supplies to Eritrea, Djibouti, Egypt and Sudan.

Thank you, PM Abiy for what you have done for Ethiopia and all Africa in the life and death struggle against COVID-19.

Thank you for

Being the voice of Africa in the face of COVID-19 invasion.

Working with Jack Ma to get emergency medical supplies distributed throughout Africa at lightning speed.

Sounding the alarm so that the G-20 and multilateral lending institutions pay attention to Africa’s predicament with the fierce urgency of now.

Relentlessly pleading the cause of Africa in the court of international public opinion.

Mobilizing the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development to fight COVID-19.

Not giving up on a continent when it is so easy to give up.

Creating mass awareness and spreading the word on COVID-19 mitigation in Ethiopia.

The almost daily COVID-19 briefings to the people of Ethiopia with facts, facts and nothing but the facts.

Being the commander-in chief in the war against COVID-19 as well as the chief medical information officer and chief preacher of preventive sanitary practices.

Making Ethiopia Africa’s first responder and the equivalent of Africa’s Delta Force against COVID-19 terrorizing the African continent and for deploying Ethiopian Airlines as “Africa’s Air Force in the War Against COVID-19.”

On a very personal note: The war of the worlds and the day Africa stood still

The world can ignore Africa at its own peril.

Africa is the future of the world.

Since 2008, the GDP of the continent has expanded by nearly 40 per cent. The continent’s population will rise from 1.3 billion to 2.5 billion in 2050.

As the world greys, by 2050 Africa’s young people will be the mainstay of the global workforce.

It is estimated by 2050 the combined economy of Africa will be worth some $29 trillion, tenfold of what it is now.

Africa has the resources the world needs most including bountiful agricultural land. The largest reserves of rare earth metals essential for the global digital economy will be available plentifully in Africa.

To save the world for COVID-19, Africa must be saved!

For decades, Hollywood movies and science fiction writers stoked our imagination with stories of extraterrestrials invading earth and wreaking havoc.

In H.G. Wells’ 1897 “War of the Worlds”, the war was between the Martian Race and the Human Race. The Martians terrorized the human race and vaporized  helpless Earthlings with heat rays and poisonous black smoke.

In the 1951 movie “The Day the Earth Stood Still”, an alien lands and tells the people of Earth that they must live peacefully with each other or be destroyed as a danger to other planets.

The real war today is not between the Human Race and an Alien Race from outer space.

The real war today is between the Human Race and an invisible Vi-Race on Planet Earth The Vi-Race known as COVID-19 is an equal opportunity destroyer.

COVID-19 is robotic, algorithmic, inexorable and inhumane. It does not care about race, religion, gender, age, class, nationality or anything else. Nor does it distinguish between humans, canines and felines. When COVID-19 comes, it rides the Pale Horse of the Apocalypse and no one will be spared.

COVID-19 has brought the mighty, mighty U.S.A. to its knees.

Americans are standing in line for handouts as “food bank lines stretch for miles as desperate Americans struggle amid economic crisis.”

That breaks my heart. I never, never thought I would witness such a disaster in America.

But thousands of Americans are lining up at the food banks not because of a food deficit but because of the moral and economic bankruptcy of the Trump administration.

Trump said don’t worry about coronavirus. “It is under control.”

Now that COVID-19 has put 22 million Americans on the unemployment line, Trump is looking for a fall guy, a scapegoat.

But remember, remember!
The third of November 2020.

But in November 2016, I knew it was the dawn of “Darkness at Noon in Amerikkka.”

So today, many of my fellow Americans, unemployed and in despair, are asking, “Brother, can you spare a dime?”

That was the title of one of the best-known American songs  of the Great Depression:

Say, don’t you remember, they called me Al
It was Al all the time
Why don’t you remember, I’m your pal
Say buddy, can you spare a dime?

How U.S. (We) the mighty have fallen!

In 2020, we are living in a world at war with an enemy we cannot see, feel or touch. We face an enemy that can take us out silently, unseen and unheard.

In “The Day the Earth Stood Still”, Klaatu the alien says:

I speak bluntly. The universe grows smaller every day.  I came here to give you these facts. It is no concern of ours how you run your own planet. But if you threaten to extend your violence, this Earth of yours will be reduced to a burned-out cinder. Your choice is simple: Join us and live in peace or pursue your present course and face obliteration. We shall be waiting for your answer; the decision rests with you.

Our world grows smaller every day. It is of vital importance we must run our planet as ONE human race. If we continue our current path of violence, injustice and environmental degradation, we will make the world a pandemic graveyard.

The choice is simple with COVID-19. The Human Race can join forces against the Vi-Race and live in peace and prosperity or pursue the present course/curse and face obliteration.

The decision rests with the Human Race. We have very limited time to give our answer to the Vi-Race!

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When each day matters a great deal in one’s life, one must seek beyond wish and panic

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Yohannes Kinfu (PhD)

A personal perspective on managing COVID-19

Addis Abeba, April 22/2020 – Few events, in our shared humanity, have divided and united the world at the same time as COVID-19. In most, if not all parts of the world, flights are largely suspended, dis-connecting the web of nations. In some, sub-national units within nations, are functioning like islands or a country of their own because of stringent restrictions on movements. In fact, it is not just countries, or states within them that now appear apart, the ‘social distancing’ interventions promoted across nations also give the impression of a divided society but looks can be glaringly deceiving. And, sure they are. In all these seemingly ‘divided entities’, what is clear is a united human front focused on fighting a single enemy: COVID-19.

The goal is universal.
It is about saving lives, livelihoods and upholding social cohesion. But
fighting such a deadly and universal enemy and winning the war (not the battle)
requires each country choosing its weapon or weapons carefully.

The first COVID-19 case in Ethiopia was reported on March 13, 2020. It took 16 days to reach the first 20 cases; only seven to add another 20 and required even fewer days (5 days to be exact), to get to the next 20 cases. If we go by the trend for the week ending April 13, the country would have doubled its total number of cases—which, as of April 13, 2020, were at 74 – every 9 days. Fortunately for now, the nine days since April 13 saw less numbers recorded as compared to the days preceding the week of April 13. As of today the number of cases has reached 116.

However, for students of population sciences and disease monitoring, like myself, such a trend is still worrying because it signifies a steady expansion of cases, known scientifically, as exponential growth.

So, what should be done in the days, and months to come. The best place to start this is to talk about what should not be done. In times like this, it is not wish nor panic or being aloof of reality that would save the country from an impending disaster. In fact, when each day matters a great deal in one’s life, it is exactly there and then that one must look beyond wish and panic and seek their right weapon.

The weapon of choice to fight COVID-19 for most has been to follow international practice. In the case of Ethiopia, the government has already ordered civil servants to work from home, had asked citizens to observe hand hygiene and social distancing practices, while religious institutions had instructed their followers to observe religious practices from the comfort of their home. To co-ordinate national action, the government has also imposed national emergency law recently. All these actions are within the global to do list, and, no doubt, will help in significantly reducing the number of people each person would meet physically in their daily life. This is central to arresting any infectious disease.

However, weapons also need to adapt to local context.  Intervention policies that are fit for a country in a middle of a pandemic should be qualitatively different from those which are in the early or later stages. For Ethiopia, most, if not all, of the new cases are so far imported, and this is where its key weapon also lies. A strong central team with skills and experience in disease surveillance is required. Each passenger coming into the country needs to be fully registered, and systematically allocated to a designated isolation or quarantine center. The management of the isolation centers and the entire airport need to be under the control of the military and viewed and managed, for all practical reasons, as a war zone. This is a fight against an enemy for which there is no vaccine or effective treatment options.

In terms of operation, controlling cross-infections within isolation centers and during transfer from Airport is highly critical. The designated isolation areas need to be completely sealed and ‘campers’ (read passengers) should not be allowed to mingle with others. Ideally, they should be assigned their own accommodation and should not be allowed to leave their rooms before they complete their quarantine period. It is also ideal if ‘campers’ coming from various destinations and during the same period are accommodated in the same location, because this makes it easier to trace cases should infection happens within the centers. Soldiers working in the designated areas, once allocated, should not be allowed to leave, and should be required to stay until they complete the quarantine period.  At the end of the day a system is as good as its weakest link, and any lapse in these chains of events will ultimately cost the nation.  Hence, to put it differently, but blatantly, the quarantine centers should be administered as high security ‘prisons’ with a human face.

The talk of ‘high security prisons’ and the call for the participation of the military is a tricky one and may raise eyebrows, given the past role of the military and high security prisons in Ethiopia and Africa more broadly.  Those who know me well as an advocate and believer to the core of individual right and a minimalist government would also be surprised to see these suggestions coming from me. However, at times, especially during hard times when negative externalities are greater for the individual being some form of hard decisions and corrections could be necessary because the alternative to a strong and quick intervention is loss of life and livelihoods, and this is not an alternative that I am happy to live with.  This said, it is important to emphasize that the military should exercise high level of discipline while executing its assignment. It is also important to establish a civilian team composed of health professionals, legal practitioners, experts in data science and supply management to monitor and provide oversight on the day to day functioning of the isolation centers. For the military, especially if it manages this operation professionally and successfully, this is like a lifetime opportunity to create a new image for itself in the nation.

The country should also
focus on active surveillance rather than the current practice which appear to
rely on citizens to call and report, if they had been in contact with confirmed
COVID-19 patients. This is what is called passive surveillance. Passive
surveillance has the merit of being cost-effective because the burden is pushed
to the reporter, rather than the state. It is known to work well for events
that have less serious impact on society. However, for the kind of crisis the
world is faced now, time is the essence. Moreover, in a couple of cases
reported in the daily brief on COVID-19 by the MoH, the source of infection had
been reported as an ‘unidentified’.  It
must be understood by those in charge of surveillance that, for better or
worse, the life and fortune of the nation is now primarily on their hands; in
their ability to detect cases. All efforts should be made by the state to take
the history of each suspected case in greater detail.  One extra day and one unreported case can be a
huge threat to the nation and in the long-term a big gamble on the life and
livelihood of people, and the social cohesion of the country.

Hand in hand, inter-regional movements need to be highly regulated and must be allowed only for life sustaining cases, such as to maintain supply chains. The movement between Djibouti and Somalia needs special focus, because these two countries are expected to be the hot bed of new infections in the days and months to come.  Completely sealing the border between these countries and Ethiopia may not be feasible nor desirable, but drivers and those working on the supply chain may need to be asked to board at a designated site and made to undertake regular testing for timely intervention.

Community level screening should be strengthened. So far, the only one known to the public is those held in Addis Abeba and Adama. It is true that tests need to be used judiciously as test kits are likely to be in short supply, however they need to be efficiently targeted and follow standard statistical procedures to allow meaningful conclusions.  The screening and tasting should also target high risk communities and areas. For example, some places to focus on include public transport users, traders in major marketplaces, banks and government offices.

Partial lock downs, as is the case in the country now, in the absence of effective surveillance and loose management of isolation centers and the main entry to the country, Bole Airport, will only drain life and livelihoods. The key issue, here, is to stop new infections from entering the community and when it is suspected or happens to deal with it in a timely manner, through isolation and clinical intervention.  In a country, like Ethiopia where the health system is fragile and incapable of caring for a bigger case load, these are some of the cheapest and easiest weapons to fight back COVID-19.   Once the infection jumps to the community, a complete lock down may be required to reduce the caseload to zero or to a level that will not be a trait to the country.  Whether this is feasible or not will depend on resources, because this requires a huge war chest, probably a good share of the country’s GDP.

Finally, we need also to have the capacity to identify opportunities through our challenges. What history has shown is that, when humans are faced with the greatest threat that is also when they are known to rise and learn their greatest lesson. This is an opportune time for thinking soles in the country to be bold, and question old habits and learn new lessons that lasts. If there is any single important lesson from COVID-19 is that it only needs you to be human: your language, your ethnic origin or religious affiliation won’t matter. So, the politics of division must give way for one of co-operation. This is the other weapon that the country needs, perhaps up on which the success of those mentioned earlier greatly depend on.  It requires each of us accepting the reality that if any part of the nation fails, it is a failure of the whole, the continent of Africa and the world.  In the worst of circumstances, nations who are unable to deal with COVID-19 effectively, will eventually risk being completely cut of the global community, especially if that nation does not bring much to the world by way of global trade. Therefore, every Ethiopian and each part of the country, is in here together for better or worse. In here, it is also important not to lose sight of the place that Ethiopia and Ethiopian (i.e. Ethiopian Airlines) hold in the region and the African Continent more broadly. Given the country’s population and the fact that Ethiopian Airlines serves as a connection point for much of Africa, more specifically its role in bringing the world to Africa and taking Africans to the World, what happens in Addis Abeba and Ethiopia can have a seismic effect beyond our borders, which we cannot afford to ignore. This also means that a co-ordinated approach with other countries should be part of this important containment framework.

The government has recently adopted a State of Emergency to co-ordinate national efforts, which will be managed by members of the council of Ministers.  However, given the federal structure in place and the fact that most COVID-19 related interventions need day to day follow up at local level, this is an opportune time to start practicing shared governance and get the regions involved effectively.  Particularly for the purposes of COVID-19 it is preferable to establish a council of ‘governors’, which is independent of the party structure and its central committee. The council of ‘governors’  should involve each of the regional heads, the city administration of Addis Abeba and Dire Dawa, with the Prime Minister as its head. This body is more likely to be effective than the currently constituted group incorporating members of the council of ministers appointed to manage the emergency law, because members of the council of governors are intimately linked to local realities, and able to reflect on their challenges and share their success story.  It can also cut the bureaucracy involved and bring on board all sections of the country on the same table. Parallel to this, to support the work of the Ministry of Health, it would also be prudent to establish a similar council for health, and other relevant ministries.

The idea of council of governors and the various sectoral councils could prove to be one of the most useful political innovations coming out of the COVID-19 crisis, because once the next election is held, chances are that the different regions of the country are likely to be led by diverse political parties and the old way of sorting our issues through a centralized party system may lead to further division and to a dysfunctional state. They can be permanent legacies of post COVID-19 Ethiopia, and a way to navigate the nation toward a more perfect union. AS

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Editor’s Note: Yohannes Kinfu (PhD)is an economist and demographer by training, with research interests in the statistical and mathematical modelling of diseases, population processes, risk factors and the economics of health care in global context. He is currently an Associate Professor of Global Health at the Faculty of Health, University of Canberra; Associate Professor of Population Medicine at College of Medicine, Qatar University, and an Associate Professor (Affiliate) of Health Metrics at Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington. He also holds an Honorary Fellow position at Murdoch Children’s Research Institute at the Royal Children Hospital in Melbourne, Australia.

He can be reached at: ykinfu@uw.edu

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this opinion are that of the author and do not represent any of the institution he is affiliated with.

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By Sertse Desta

Now the US contributes over a third of confirmed cases and a quarter of deaths of the world COVID19 data. Most nations that were highly hit by the virus seem now controlling it. The European economic power, Germany, has brought the total active cases from ~73,000 down to ~42,000 with a total recovery of ~110,000 death of only less than 6 thousand.  Although the world economic power US allocated huge money and resources and has been under lockdown for over a month, both new cases and deaths haven’t yet shown a waning.  The country recorded the highest daily new cases just yesterday, amounting to ~39,000. New York, the world epicenter with approximately 300 thousand cases and 22 thousand deaths (Today, April 25, 2020, around 8 pm) is still counting a third of both the nationwide new cases and deaths per day. Why is the US unable to be successful in fighting this virus? Different people say different things. Let me list some and discuss each further.

President Trump: The President obviously didn’t act properly at the beginning, although he closed travel from China very early. He undermined the incidence and couldn’t give appropriate attention. However, since the time he realized the seriousness of the problem, he has been very aggressive and has been working very hard. However, he couldn’t get enough supports and collaboration from the states as well as the public. For example, he availed most critically necessary resources in excess, including a new Hospital and military ship of total 3500 beds for the epicenter New York. He also mobilized the military for assistance.  Unfortunately, the New Yorkers did not seem to help themselves at least by complying with the guidelines. Until recently, after a nationwide lockdown, New Yorkers were walking in crowded streets and parks freely with no protection. We even have seen big crowd funeral events.  Trump sometimes behaves at odds that expose himself and confuse the public. It was shocking to hear from Trump the idea of injecting disinfectant into humans. This was really terrible. Whatsoever he is eager to see the US free of the virus; it is so embarrassing to hear injection of disinfectant through human veins from the US president. Yet, his effort and determination to bring down what he mentioned ‘hidden enemy’ is so huge. His efforts need to be appreciated while correcting even challenging when he goes wrong.

State/local leaders: Some states seem right in their actions, but others looked even totally unaware of what was going on until recently, let alone helping their public awareness. It was only two weeks and so that we heard a state governor publicly saying he was not aware that asymptomatic people could transfer the virus.   Some others seem to talk much but do little. For example, I hardly understand what the New York governor Cuomo and county leaders in the state have been doing. Indeed, Cuomo worked well in requesting necessary resources and equipment’s from the federal government. But I could not understand why he and the county leaders in the state couldn’t do on awarenessto of their people about what is going in their surroundings and take measures so that people should comply with guidelines. After a month and more, we still see numbers rising, although the federal government support has been so tremendous. That seems to be mainly the problem with the local leaders.

Test: Testing might be somehow limited considering the outbreak. But it is clear that the US has tested more tests than any other country. It has already tested over 3million tests. Having more tests is good, but the number of tests in the US seems to be quite reasonable to get insight into the level of the problem. What seems lacking instead is that to strictly complying with the guidelines during the lockdown. Had there been a strict obeyance to the rules and regulations from the first day of the lockdown, they could have effectively reduced the number and would have shortened the lockdown.  Unfortunately, in some states like New York, things seem even just fresh.

Media: US media have had no help; if not, they even have aggravated the outbreak. Big media daily talk about Trump. Most of them against some in support. They have had little space to transfer critical information to the public.  The Trump disinfectant injection idea was like a big opportunity to attack Trump for media working hard to let him see failed. Though it is unexpected from a mature person, let alone from US president, it can also partially be understandable; he seemed to suggest whatever that halt the virus. Since he has been worried about the situation too much, he wants a miraculous solution. The media mostly follow his lips seeking any wrong word he may speak. That is not good!  Earlier, Trump publicly suggested his “game-changer” Chloroquine or derivatives for COVID19 treatment. Nearly all media have been working hard to defy the use of Chloroquine and its derivatives for COVID19 treatment. But they hardly mention their source of information for what they are talking about. Scientific reports have, however, been consistent with what Trump suggested. Of course, Trump got that information from scientists may be from one of his advisors.

Anyone who reads most of the scientific articles (eg. (Colson et al. 2020; Gao et al. 2020) feels that these drugs really are “game-changer”.  What Trump said was not out of the blue. Media didn’t mention any of such scientific reports, but they used unverified sources like from Nigeria, Brazil, and the US itself just to attack Trump. Early on, the media used Trump’s rally word ‘Hoax’ inaccurately as if he said corona was ‘hoax’ though he already had established taskforce and also had banned travels from some countries. He clearly meant how democrats were (still are) using this challenge for political profits.   The other thing is that journalists don’t seem professionally behaving. The way they ask at briefings and elsewhere does not look good. They even don’t wait for their turn. It seems everyone in the room is asking his/her question at a time. It looks more like in a bar than in a meeting room. That is awful!

Political condition: The tension between Republicans and Democrats is the other problem in the US COVID19 control effort. The President doesn’t want to acknowledge democrats in the senate and house even when they are supportive. Obviously, the previous impeachment and other itchy things since Trump came to power have contributed a lot to deepen the rift between the President (also Republicans) and democrats.  We also see the carryover effect of pre corona situations during this pandemic that diluted coordinated efforts.

Science: Some of the confusions might have been avoided by clear scientific evidence. For example, what scientific team of the taskforce telling about the use of mask and chloroquine seem confusing. Masks have now become mandatory in some states, particularly in shopping and other essential working areas.  Earlier, advisors undermined the importance of masks. They still flimsily explain their importance. They say, “use a mask to protect others, not yourself.”  Yet, one can understand by common sense how a mask can protect the person wearing the mask as well. It is clear face masks can’t fully protect, but they can reduce the risk of getting the virus while at the same time, protecting others too. The other problem with this kind of message is that people are usually selfish, so if the mask does not protect themselves, many don’t want to wear a mask simply to protect others. The other confusion is on the use of Chloroquine and its derivatives for COVID19 treatment.   It was clear the President didn’t mention these drugs as if they were “game-changer” with out getting some kind of advise from professionals. He got the information from some scientists. Some papers even mentioned these drugs nearly in the same word as the President mentioned: “game-changer” (Colson et al. 2020; Gao et al. 2020). These drugs seem on shelves of all hospitals treating COVID19. Perhaps the success of some countries is connected to the use of these drugs.  The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have given the green light to use these drugs as COVID19 treatment, but it recently cautioned to be used only in hospitals by professional health care workers.  It seems that the drugs are helping the fight against the virus. Research results, however, are scantily and without clear evidences. The drugs showed successful results in vitro (Wang et al. 2020).   The in vivo research result from French researchers (Gautret et al. 2020) was blamed for its poor experimental design (Molina et al. 2020). But, other reports based on a randomized experiment with reasonable number of patients showed the significant effect of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine (Chen et al. 2020). There were other large-scale clinical trials promised from the US. We have not yet heard the result of any of those.  Even it would be possible to understand the effects of these drugs by collecting and analyzing from existing patients who took the treatment and those who did not without going into a designed experiment. For some reason, this issue has remained vague. I don’t know why?

May The Almighty God have mercy on us and the entire world! Amen!

ቅዱስ እግዚአብሔር ምህረቱን ለዓለም ሁሉ ይላክኢትዮጵያንና ሕዝቧን ይጠብቅአሜን!

Thank you!

 

Chen Z, Hu J, Zhang Z, Jiang S, Han S, Yan D, Zhuang R, Hu B, Zhang Z (2020) Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial. MedRxiv

Colson P, Rolain J-M, Lagier J-C, Brouqui P, Raoult D (2020) Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as available weapons to fight COVID-19. Int J Antimicrob Agents 105932

Gao J, Tian Z, Yang X (2020) Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Bioscience trends

Gautret P, Lagier J-C, Parola P, Meddeb L, Mailhe M, Doudier B, Courjon J, Giordanengo V, Vieira VE, Dupont HT (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial. International journal of antimicrobial agents:105949

Molina JM, Delaugerre C, Goff J, Mela-Lima B, Ponscarme D, Goldwirt L, de Castro N (2020) No evidence of rapid antiviral clearance or clinical benefit with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in patients with severe COVID-19 infection. Med Mal Infect:30085-30088

Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L, Yang X, Liu J, Xu M, Shi Z, Hu Z, Zhong W, Xiao G (2020) Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell research 30:269-271

 

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Ethiopia: Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures (Proclamation 3/2020) (Part I)

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By  Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the global health, economic and social system. Two weeks ago, the Ethiopian Parliament passed a law (Proclamation No. 3/2020 “State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact) to respond to the looming COVID-19 crisis in Ethiopia. I applaud the Parliament for taking swift action and enacting a narrowly tailored and clearly written proclamation that balances the interests of individual liberty with the necessity of safeguarding public health and safety.

In Part I here, I shall examine the constitutional dimensions of Proclamation No. 3/2020 and some of its key provisions, particularly from the perspective of protecting civil liberty and civil rights during the COVD-19 crisis.

In Part II, I shall argue that the Ethiopian Government must now focus its attention on the postponement of the parliamentary elections scheduled for late August 2020 using constitutional mechanisms. It is manifest to all reasonable minds that the August elections cannot proceed with the COVID-19 crisis upending the country’s social, economic and political system. It is foolhardy and downright reckless and dangerous to even suggest that full-scale election campaigns and electoral preparations can go on given the great uncertainties in the spread of COVID19 in Ethiopia. It is because of the deep uncertainties in the burgeoning COVID-19 crisis, the need to devote all available material and human resources to its prevention, treatment and mitigation, the necessity to deal effectively with the social and economic dislocations caused by the cries and ultimately  ensure a free and fair election that can withstand international standards that I shall urge the Government of Ethiopia to use constitutional measures at its disposal and formally  postpone the August 2020 election for a reasonable period of time.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure: Stopping COVID-19 before it stops Ethiopia

COVID-19 has stopped America cold in its economic, social and political tracks.

In less than 6 weeks, nearly 30 million Americans have found themselves unemployed.  Most small businesses (the backbone of the American economy), schools and government offices are shut down and there are no firm plans to reopen them on a date certain.

The mighty United States despite its technological and medical prowess stands helpless, powerless and defenseless before the invisible marauding COVID-19 Army which has taken nearly one million American “prisoners” and killed over 55 thousand. COVID-19 is without a doubt the most formidable terrorist army in America, and indeed the world, has ever seen. The human race today is living in terror looking out for COVID-19 lurking everywhere.

One fact is indisputable. The invisible COVID-19 Army has proven to be the great equalizer. It does not discriminate based on race, color, religion, language national origin, geographic boundaries or even species. It will attack a fearsome tiger, a kitten just as easily as it would young and old Homo sapiens.

The object lesson for Ethiopia in the COVID-19 invasion is the United States of America, “Land of the free and home of the runaway COVID-19.”

But on March 24, 2020, Donald Trump told the American people not to worry about COVID-19. “We have it totally under control. It will go away in April with the heat.”

On April 24, a million Americans are infected and over 55 thousand dead.

On April 10, Trump predicted total “US death toll from Covid-19 could reach 60,000.” How many Americans will die by the end of summer? Only God knows!

On April 23, Trump recommended Americans inject disinfectants, poisonous to humans,  as a possible COVID-19 treatment.

The ancient Greek physician Hippocrates, often referred to as the “Father of Medicine” and founder of the Hippocratic School of Medicine is credited with the aphorism, “Desperate times call for desperate measures.”

That is literally true with COVID-19. In Aphorisms, Hippocrates wrote, “For extreme diseases, extreme methods of cure, as to restriction, are most suitable.”

There is no more extreme disease facing Ethiopia today than COVID-19.

It has no cure. There is no vaccine. There is a global shortage of test kits and personal protective equipment. The human race has no effective defense against COVID-19. How the human race got caught with its pants down facing COVID-19 is something I will never understand.

The fact is COVID-19 is spreading throughout the globe like wildfire.

Extreme methods to deal with COVID-19 crisis necessary and mandatory.

The Ethiopian Government did the right thing by declaring a COVID-19 state of emergency in a timely manner

If COVID-19 can wreak havoc on the medical and economic system of the mighty, mighty United States, I shudder to think what it can do to Ethiopia.

There is no way Ethiopia can win the war with COVID-19 in a hand-to-hand combat, literally. Ethiopians may have a fighting chance if they meticulously and diligently wash their hands, unfailingly practice social distancing and employ other preventive measures using personal protection equipment.

The level of public compliance with such measures is woefully inadequate. Ethiopian government officials, public figures, journalists, health professionals and others are seen daily on television lamenting the lack of public compliance with recommended mitigation measures and expressing frustration over what appears to be inexplicable public indifference to the potentially disastrous consequences of COVID-19.

The facts are the facts.

Ethiopia will be overwhelmed if COVID-19 spreads as it has in America and Europe. If the medical infrastructure in America and Europe is unable to handle the rising tide of COVID-19 cases, what chance could Ethiopia possibly have in dealing with such a crisis?

In a historical context, when Ethiopia had 70 million people in 2002, the ratio of physician to population was 1 per every 36,000 people.

In 2004, Randall Tobias, President Bush’s global AIDS coordinator, said “there were more Ethiopian-trained doctors practicing in Chicago than in Ethiopia.”

In 2017, according to the World Bank, Ethiopia had 0.1 physicians per 1000 population (1 physician per 10,000 persons). Ethiopia had 0.8 nurses per 1,000 population in 2017.

In 2015, Ethiopia had hospital beds at a ratio of 0.3 per 1,000 people.

How many ventilators and respirators does Ethiopia have today?

Ethiopia has over 100 million people, but only 54 respirators out of 450 available have been reserved for coronavirus patients. The Ministry of Health would like to acquire 1,500 more. The government has ordered a thousand devices from China. But global demand is strong. Addis Ababa will have to settle for 250 by April.

The lack of supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) in Ethiopia, not unlike most places in the world, is frightening. Diaspora Ethiopians (including the Ethiopian Diaspora Trust Fund which committed USD$1 million and has an ongoing COVID-19 fundraising campaign), have been working fast and furiously to secure specialized clothing, equipment, gloves, gowns/aprons, goggles/face shields, facemasks and respirators for health care workers and vulnerable populations to help prevent the spread of the virus.

As of today, Ethiopia has 123 reported COVID-19 cases and 3 deaths. Personally, I attribute that to divine intervention for it has been written, “Ethiopia shall soon stretch her hands to God.”

Unlike Italy, Spain and other countries, Ethiopia has not yet gone all out creating a national cordon sanitaire preventing travel in and out of hamlets, towns and cities. There is no lock down of millions of people.

The Ethiopian government has adopted a reasonable policy that allows movement of people by balancing the interests of work, health and societal concerns. Houses of faith have voluntarily cooperated in keeping their members at home or maintaining social distance in places of worship.

But the low COVID-19 infection and death rates should not lead to complacency.

Neither Ethiopia nor Africa are out of the woods. The UN is predicting COVID-19 could lay Africa to waste.

By enacting Proclamation 3/2020, Ethiopia has gone the distance in COVID-19 mitigation under the principle of the rule of law.

Contrast Ethiopia with Hungary. In March 2020, Hungary drafted a law which allowed the “government to rule by decree during the state of emergency caused by the coronavirus pandemic risks staying in place indefinitely, the opposition has warned.”

Contrast Ethiopia with Italy. The Italian government enacted a series of stringent emergency measures to deal with the COVID-19 crisis. People were forbidden to gather in public including sports and other events. Only people with permits could travel. Cruise ships were forbidden to dock in Italian ports. People violating the emergency orders could be fined up to Euro 3,000 per offense (Ethiopian Birr 108,000).

A number of African countries have also put strict emergency measures to deal with the COVID-19 crisis.

The Ethiopian government has avoided harsh measures in its COVID-19 mitigation campaign. It has closed schools and heavily promoted social distancing and effective hygienic practices. It has effectively suspended the operations of Ethiopia Airlines, recognized as the best airline service in Africa. It has closed land borders and released thousands of prisoners to ease overcrowding and sprayed main streets in the capital with disinfectant.

PM Abiy Ahmed has declined calls to impose a total lockdown arguing it is “unrealistic” because “many citizens who don’t have homes” and “even those who have homes have to make ends meet daily.”

What is in Proclamation 3/2020?

I am impressed by the intentionality, thoughtfulness and reasonable care taken in drafting Proclamation 3/2020.

I shall focus on a number of aspects which I believe make Proclamation 3/2020 an effective policy tool in the fight against COVID-19.

First, the Proclamation is narrowly and thoughtfully drafted to address the evolving COVID-19 crises. There is not even a hint of political advantage in the language of the Proclamation nor do any of its provision lend themselves as a basis for expanded or extra-constitutional exercise of political power by the government. To me, that is one of the critical elements of the rule of law. Laws and policies should be written in such a way to address the need at hand or a specific objective without affecting other rights or opening the possibility of encroaching on other rights.

Second, the Proclamation is fully couched in the Ethiopian Constitution. The legal framework for the Proclamation are Article 77(10) (“The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”) and Article 93 (1a) (“The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency… [in the event of] … , a natural disaster, or an epidemic…”) There is no obfuscation of constitutional authority and the government’s claims, assertions and exercise of authority are open to public and judicial scrutiny. To me, that is another important element of the rule of law. The government must never exercise power or authority that is not granted in the supreme law of the land which is enshrined in Article 9 of the Ethiopian Constitution.

Third, the Proclamation is based on clear, indisputable and demonstrable factual findings. The government has demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that ordinary governmental systems and capabilities are woefully inadequate in meeting the rapid spread of COVID-19 or proactively deal with the highly likely humanitarian, social, economic and political damage that could be caused by the pandemic. To me, this is a critical element of the rule of law. Any law that could impact civil liberties and civil rights must be based on demonstrable and challengeable facts, which the Proclamation lays out in its preamble. So, there are different standards that apply to extraordinary legislation (state of emergency declaration) and ordinary legislation which could be based on claims and assertions of facts subject to legislative notice. I am glad the Proclamation observes these basic distinctions.

Fourth, the Proclamation takes special care not to encroach or infringe on individual liberties and civil rights. Under Article 4 of the Proclamation, the scope of governmental action is narrowly defined. The Council of Ministers are required to “stipulate details of the suspension of rights and measures adopted to counter and mitigate   the humanitarian, social, economic and political damage that could be caused by the pandemic.”

This is exceedingly important in maintaining and institutionalizing what I shall call the “golden age of human rights” in Ethiopia today. Under Article 4, the government cannot use the Proclamation to amass amorphous powers to limit and curtain the rights of citizens. The Proclamation imposes the burden of proof on the government to demonstrate with compelling evidence why a certain right must be suspended and the nexus to a particular mitigation effort. For instance, under the Proclamation the government may not order a lockdown unless it can show that the lockdown measure is supported by evidence of rapid spread of COVID-19, the lack of preventive and mitigation capacity, sustained escalation in COVID-19 deaths, etc.

Fifth, the implementation of the Proclamation does not lend itself to a discretionary exercise of power by one individual. The Proclamation calls for action by the Council of Ministers or a Ministerial Committee to be established by them. That is very important as a rule of law issue for at least two reasons: 1) The Council is required to take leadership and collective responsibility for actions it takes under the Proclamation, and 2) because COVID-19 is unpredictable, the Council will be able to respond to dynamic situations and act in real time. These are important elements in monitoring implementation as the Council have great flexibility to respond to constantly changing circumstances, anticipate new ones and make decisions proactively based on up to date data and information.

Sixth, the Proclamation actively promotes education, public awareness and other reasonable means of non-coercive compliance. Only in extraordinary circumstances does it authorize federal and regional law enforcement agencies to “use proportionate force to enforce the suspension of rights and measures.” I have a special appreciation for this provision. First, it respects individual autonomy and dignity. It assumes that people with the right information will act in their own enlightened self-interest. In other words, people will act rationally to protect their interests and in doing so protect the interests of society. Second, it mandates the restrained use of force. That is important because I do not believe in the use of violence to convince people to pursue their enlightened self-interest. Only in the most dire circumstances when public health and safety is threatened should coercive measures be used to obtain compliance. That is why I like the operative phrase “proportionate force” in the Proclamation. Proportionality is a fundamental principle in law. Let the punishment fit the crime.

Seventh, the Proclamation is transparent and provides for maximum accountability of government officials. It conforms to Article 12 of the Ethiopian Constitution which mandates, “the conduct of affairs of government shall be transparent” and requires “any public official or an elected representative [to be] accountable for any failure in official duties.” Under the Proclamation, it is the duty of the Prime Minister and the Attorney General to “communicate to the public the conditions pertaining to suspension of rights and measures through media outlets that are widely accessible to the public.” Simply stated, the buck stops with the Prime Minister and the Attorney General.

Eight, the Proclamation requires “all commercial, community and public media with a local, regional or national reach have an obligation to broadcast free of charge the public notifications, explanations and messages” concerning COVID-19. I appreciate this provision because it requires of the private media to engage in the most important aspects of the war on COVID-19. The best way to get information to the public is through the mass media, especially radio and television. I have no problems in compelling the private media to do the government’s work as long as the task is clear and narrowly defined. In the Proclamation, the private media is required to disseminate “notifications, explanations and messages” concerning COVID-19. The Proclamation does not allow for any other use of the private media by the government.

Ninth, Proclamation 3/2020 upholds fundamental principles of the rule of law and should serve as model legislation for the rest of Africa. It is constitutionally rooted and has various accountability measures built into it. It provides for procedural and legal transparency. It avoids arbitrariness and respects civil liberties to the maximum level in a state of emergency.

Tenth, Individual responsibility. Individual responsibility. Individual responsibility. I do not believe in the “nanny state” idea. The Ethiopian government simply does not have the resources to provide personal protective equipment, testing services and life support technologies to respond to widespread infections. For that matter, the American federal government has failed woefully.  The Ethiopian government has its role to play in the protection of health and public safety. But the lion’s share of responsibility for prevention and mitigation must be borne by the individual. To be sure, Proclamation 3/2020 is as far as I would like to see government legislative intervention in the protection of public health and management of the COVID-19 crises in Ethiopia. I would like to see a whole lot more NGOs, members of the advocacy and activist communities, faith leaders and institutions, business leaders and organizations, political parties and similar institutions taking a commanding role in the war against COVID-19 by raising public awareness and providing actionable information to the public, and especially discrediting unsafe and unproven remedies for COVID-19. Anyone who believes the Ethiopian government can single-handedly  defeat the COVID-19 plague without the massive support, participation and action by each individual citizen is at best delusional. I argue this point precisely because I have seen countless news reports documenting public indifference and ignorance bordering on arrogance about hand washing, social distancing and other similar practices.

On a personal point…   

I wish to deeply thank all diaspora Ethiopians who have come to the aid of Ethiopia in this time of extreme need by donating and arranging delivery of personal protective equipment. I am equally thankful to all in Ethiopia who have generously donated money, property and other resources in the fight against COVID-19.

I must confess that over the past decade and half relentlessly fighting for human rights and the rule of law in Ethiopia, I never thought Ethiopia would prove to be a shining example of the rule of law. I doubt there is anyone who has consistently, tenaciously and relentlessly litigated the cause of Ethiopian human rights and the rule of law in Ethiopia more than myself. This is not intended be self-congratulatory, only a statement of fact.

I have written countless commentaries on “state of emergency” declarations by the previous regime. That regime chose to implement its declarations by a “command post.” That way, the mastermind criminals responsible for human rights violations thought they could evade legal accountability.

It is refreshing and a very big deal for me to see the Prime Minister and the Attorney General, not some faceless, remorseless and ruthless command post, standing up and taking full responsibility for the implementation of Proclamation 3/2020.

I thank PM Abiy Ahmed, the Council of Ministers and the Ethiopian Parliament for enacting a proclamation that meets the highest standards of international scrutiny. I am proud of them all.

Now, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his government must rise and address the issue of postponement of the August elections with the same constitutional tour de force of Proclamation 3/2020.

To be continued… The constitutional bases for the postponement of the August 2020 election.

  

 

The post Ethiopia: Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures (Proclamation 3/2020) (Part I) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures: The Necessity of Postponing the August 29, 2020 Federal Parliamentary/Regional Elections in Ethiopia (Part II)

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Special Author’s Note: In Part I of this commentary last week,  I examined Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”) enacted to respond to the looming COVID-19 crisis in Ethiopia and determined it passed constitutional muster and scrutiny under international standards. That Proclamation is narrowly tailored, clearly written and carefully balances the interests of individual liberty with the necessity of safeguarding public health and safety.

In Part II, I shall argue the Ethiopian Government, having crafted a model health emergency legislation in Proclamation 3/2020, must now follow through by postponing and rescheduling the August 29, 2020 federal/regional parliamentary elections by exercising its constitutional authority, which includes, among others, and declaring a state of emergency.

I was pleasantly surprised last week to learn the Ethiopian Parliament had decided to hear and consider a report from the Ethiopian National Election Board on the untenability of holding elections on August 29, 2020 given the COVID-19 crisis. Two weeks ago when I began drafting my commentaries on the necessity of taking “extraordinary constitutional measures” necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis, I had no idea the Ethiopian Parliament would take prompt action. I am glad Parliament decided to address the issue early on and provide ample time for public dialogue and discussion of available options. Indeed, I am pleased to see robust dialogue between the ruling Prosperity Party and opposition parties.  I am also impressed by the high quality of legal analysis and constitutional commentary. I am also amused by some of the dogmatic and uninformed public dialogue.

I have written these commentaries on the necessity of taking extraordinary constitutional measures in light of the COVID-19 crisis for three special reasons.  First, I aim to promote and support informed and critical constitutional discussion on urgent and emergent social, legal and political issues facing Ethiopian society.

Second, I aim to share my knowledge and expertise as a teacher and practitioner of constitutional law in America.

Third, I want to make sure the voices of diaspora Ethiopians are heard in the constitutional dialogue and debate currently taking place in Ethiopia. It must never be forgotten that many diaspora Ethiopians have fought relentlessly to bring democracy, the rule of law and protection of human rights in Ethiopia. My participation in the defense and promotion of human rights for nearly a decade and half in Ethiopia has been a labor of love. I want to make it perfectly clear that many diaspora Ethiopians have earned the right through blood, sweat and tears to have a say in the fate of our country. Let it never be forgotten that we were the voice of Ethiopia when Ethiopia had no voice– when Ethiopia was muzzled– for 27 years. Today, we want to make sure we are heard and our views taken into consideration in these trying times and as those doing the heavy lifting in Ethiopia make their decisions about the coming election and the democratic changes to follow.

It is in this spirit that I share my views in these commentaries.

Nota Bene: This commentary is admittedly very long. The headings are intended to capsulize the relevant subject matter and readers may read each section independently and follow my analysis and arguments. But I am not apologetic for the length of the commentary. The gravity of the constitutional issues demands a thorough analysis and incorporation of supporting evidence. Those who seek instant answers for the serious constitutional questions raised in a paragraph or two will be disappointed. Only those interested in an in-depth understanding of the issues will likely benefit from my commentaries. I am aware there are many interested individuals who would like to read my commentaries but are unable to do so because of linguistic challenges. I fervently hope someone, from among my readers, will be able to translate this series of commentaries into Amharic for the benefit of those who do not read English.

The abuse and misuse of extraordinary measures in the form of “state of emergency” declarations in Ethiopia

Historically, extraordinary measures have been taken in Ethiopia in the form of “state of emergency” declarations. Indeed, such measures have been synonymous with abuse of power, extrajudicial killings, mass arrests and incarcerations and generally massive human rights violations.

In November 1974, the so-called Derg military regime declared a state of emergency and imposed martial law in Ethiopia. Ad hoc military tribunals summarily executed former imperial government officials accused of corruption, maladministration and negligence in the country’s famine. The Derg launched a campaign of Red Terror killing and jailing hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians without due process of law. In the late 1980s, the Derg declared a state of emergency in the northern provinces of Ethiopia and imposed martial law resulting in massive human rights violations.

On May 15, 2005, following parliamentary election that day, Meles Zenawi, the late leader of the regime of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a nationally televised address declared a state of emergency by personal fiat (without constitutional authority) claiming he had to take action to “counter havoc and fear  created by opposition charges of abuses and a threat to reject the results.” Zenawi announced, “As of tomorrow, for the next one month no demonstrations of any sort will be allowed within the city and its environs. As peace should be respected … the government has decided to bring all the security forces, the police and the local militias, under one command accountable to the prime minister.” Zenawi immediately contradicted himself by stating, “We are not expecting any big danger, but as a government there is a role to play in looking after the peace and harmony of the people. This action is just simply a precaution to see that no one is endangered.” As a result of Zenawi’s state of emergency, nearly 800 persons were killed and over 30 thousand incarcerated. An Inquiry Commission created by Zenawi himself laid the blame entirely on Zenawi and his regime for excessive use of force.

I joined the Ethiopian human rights movement to vindicate the victims of the Meles Massacres of 2005.

On October 9, 2016, the government of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) issued its “State of Emergency Command Post” Decree on the vague pretext that “the situation posed a threat against the people of the country.” That decree was issued in a futile attempt to brutally suppress popular opposition to TPLF ethnic oppression.

resolutely opposed that emergency declaration: “The T-TPLF did not declare a state of emergency for Ethiopia. It declared an emergency S.O.S. for the “S.S. (Sinking Ship) T-TPLF”.

Since 2009, the TPLF regime, for all intents and purposes, has used its so-called anti-terrorism law (Proclamation No. 652/2009), to impose a de jure (by law) state of emergency. Under that “Proclamation”, the T-TPLF created a police state and imposed a reign of terror. Thousands were arbitrarily arrested, tortured and killed on an industrial scale.

When Erin Burnett of CNN visited Ethiopia in July 2012, she described what she saw in stark terms:

We saw what an African police state looked like when I was in Ethiopia last month… At the airport, it took an hour to clear customs – not because of lines, but because of checks and questioning. Officials tried multiple times to take us to government cars so they’d know where we went. They only relented after forcing us to leave hundreds of thousands of dollars of TV gear in the airport…”

On March 19, 2017, the TPLF government announced it had lifted three elements of the state of emergency having to do with arbitrary searches and searches and curfews.

On March 30, 2017, the TPLF government authorized  a four-month extension of the state of emergency absurdly arguing  “82 percent of Ethiopians want a partial or full continuation of the state of emergency.”  More than 25,000 people suspected of taking part in protests were detained under that state of emergency.

resolutely opposed the extension of the state of emergency. I warned the TPLF they will never be able to contain the volcanic eruption of the people’s anger and frustration by declaring a command post government.

In June 2018, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed permanently lifted the state of emergency and opened the political space for all contenders, including those declared terrorist and sentenced to death in absentia, to return to the country and help build a democratic governance process.

Let the facts speak out! Let us not lie to ourselves!

The history of state of emergency in Ethiopia over the past three decades has been a history of state terror on citizens.

Ethiopia has been under a de facto or de jure state of emergency since May 28, 1991, the date the TPLF rebels marched from the bush on the capital Addis Ababa until April 2018. That was the principal means the TPLF used to imposed its will on the people of Ethiopia.

The unfortunate fact is that civilian and military dictators in Africa have ruled by declaration of state of emergency for far too long.

In 2011, Tunisia declared state of emergency following unrest from economic issues leading to the Arab Spring.

Egypt was ruled under a permanent state of emergency for 32 years, indeed a military dictatorship, which granted security forces sweeping powers of arrest, detention and prosecution in special courts was in place until it presumably ended in 2012. It seems the permanent state of emergency continues in Egypt today as President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi managed to remain president for life, at least until 2030.

In 2013, Nigeria declared a state of emergency for the entire northeastern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa because of attacks by the terrorist group Boko Haram.

In 2016, Namibia declared last a state of emergency because of an ongoing drought.

In 2017, Zambia declared a state of emergency following a fire that destroyed country’s biggest market in the capital Lusaka.

In 2019, Sudanese president Al Bashir declared a one-year state of emergency and dissolved the country’s central and state governments and replaced them by military leaders. He was subsequently overthrown which declared a state of emergency.

In 2019, Sierra Leone declared a state of emergency over widespread occurrences of rape and sexual assault in that country.

Why I support a declaration of a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election

It is a fair question to ask why I would urge, not merely support, postponement and rescheduling of the August 2020 election by declaration of a state of emergency or other constitutional mechanisms given my history of opposition to such declarations.

First, COVID-19 has been a global game changer. The pandemic has rocked the global economic system to the core. Even the most advanced industrialized countries are unable to withstand the chaos and dislocation created by COVID-19. The world has been reduced to a global village and the fate of the villagers intertwined. Countries have sought to deal with the COVID-19 crisis by taking extraordinary measures. As I demonstrated in Part I of my commentary last week, the Ethiopian Government drafted and implemented  Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”). I will not rehash those points here.

Second, as a die hard constitutionalist, I would like to see the Ethiopian Constitution serve as working, living and breathing instrument of government. Since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

While I believe that Constitution needs massive overhaul, the fact remains, to paraphrase a military metaphor of former U.S. Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld, “You resolve a constitutional question you have, not by a constitution you might want or wish to have at a later time.” There are multiple answers in the Ethiopian Constitution to address the question at hand.

Third, the government of PM Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly declared its wish, desire and determination to hold free and fair elections on numerous occasions. That commitment is irrevocable come hell or high water. Indeed, to make that possible, from the very beginning the government has completely opened the political space allowing organizations and individuals previously declared “terrorists” and “criminals” to participate in a peaceful manner. The government has even tolerated, in the face of enormous public pressure, individuals and organizations that have openly and flagrantly flouted the law in the interest of social harmony. No government that intends to impose dictatorial rule would allow the opposition that is sworn to violence and force to participate in the democratic process. That gives me great confidence that postponement of the election for 6 months will not lead to abuses of power or violation of human rights.

Fourth and most importantly, the government of PM Abiy has been committed to the principles of the rule of law, inclusivity, due process, resolution of problems by dialogue in free and open forums and full accountability and transparency. Until substantial and credible evidence (not bellyaching, teeth gnashing, mudslinging, whining and finger pointing) to the contrary is shown, I shall grant the full benefit of the doubt to the government based on what it has done to date in protecting human rights, institutionalizing the rule of law and promoting free and fair elections.

Fifth, unlike Ethiopia, many governments have criminalized reporting on COVID-19. The Egyptian Government made reporting on COVID-19 inconsistent with the government narrative a crime. Amnesty International reported, “The Egyptian authorities have made it very clear that anyone who challenges the official narrative will be severely punished.” Other countries that have criminalized COVID-19 reporting under a state of emergency decree include Iran, China, Hungary and South Africa, among others. Rodrigo Duterte shut down Philippines’ largest television network because he did not like the way the station reported on COVID-19.

In contrast, in Ethiopia under Article 7 (2) of Proclamation 3/2020, compels the private media to report on COVID-19 and participate in public education programs aimed at mitigation. If the Ethiopian government was interested in abusing power under a state of emergency decree, Proclamation 3/2020 would have provided it its best pretext. But the Ethiopian government chose to fight the COVID-19 war with full accountability, transparency and media scrutiny. I am very much impressed by that commitment. But I hasten to add that the media bears a heavy responsibility in its role as “watch dog”. It must not be a patsy for purveyors of lies, fake news and disinformation.

Understanding the juridical fact of “state of emergency”

In my discussions with may Ethiopian scholars, activists and political leaders, I have concluded most of them are unaware of the juridical nature of a “state of emergency” or the declaratory legislative act that brings it into existence. Indeed, I am surprised that many confuse declaration of state of emergency with martial law. While a declaration of a state of emergency may be used to impose martial law, it is different in the fact that under martial law the military takes direct functions of ordinary civilian government instituting military administration as was the case during the Derg regime in Ethiopia.

The modern idea of “state of emergency” has roots in Roman antiquity in which a “Roman magistrate with extraordinary powers was appointed during an emergency”. Indeed, “in the fifth and fourth centuries, the dictatorship was also used to solve internal problems, e.g., to conduct difficult elections or solve a constitutional crisis.” At the onset of the “Reign of Terror” in 1793 in the French Revolution, Robespierre and the Committee for Public safety declared a state of emergency and arbitrarily jailed and executed their opponents. It is after the French Revolution that “state of emergency” regimes became common and widespread especially in the 20th century.

There are two general perspectives on the legality of a “state of emergency”. One leading scholar on the subject argues declaration of state of emergency is a function of sovereignty. According to this view, “a polity must be entitled to decide whether to suspend the application of its law on the ground that the situation is abnormal.” The sovereign power may in its discretion bring about “a total suspension of the law and then to use extra-legal force to normalize the situation.” The competing legal/rule of law view argues legal norms, conditions and standards could be established for a declaration of a state of emergency with built-in safeguards to prevent abuse of power.

I do not regard the two views as mutually exclusive. I shall argue that a declaration of a state of emergency is inherently a sovereign act but is most effective when it is sanctioned and legitimized by constitutional or statutory authority. A government may declare a state of emergency when it determines the normal course and systems of governance are incapable of addressing an extraordinary occurrence. For instance, a government facing external aggression, imminent domestic insurrection, uncontrolled widespread civil unrest, natural disasters and epidemics does not necessarily obtain prior legislative approval before acting.

The scope of special emergency powers is determined by a given country’s constitution and   laws. Generally, a declaration of a state of emergency may restrict press freedom, prohibit public gatherings, grant security and military forces special powers of arrest and detention without due process of law, authorize extrajudicial search and seizures, regulate the economy and the operation of businesses and the like.

General state practice shows a country’s constitution or legislation normally describes the circumstances that can give rise to a state of emergency, enumerates the procedures to be followed and prescribes the scope of authority to be exercised under emergency powers. Usually, the head of the executive branch either declares a state of emergency and notifies the legislature within a specified period of time for ratification or proposes a declaration of state of emergency to the legislature to enact it into law. In a few countries, the legislature declares a state of emergency sua sponte.

Most constitutions require well-considered justifications and sufficient facts for the decision to declare a state of emergency and the specific measures to address the situation, among others: 1) facts supporting existence of extraordinary circumstances posing a fundamental threat to the country; 2) the legal framework consisting of constitutional and legislative authority for the implementation of the emergency declaration; 3) the emergency preparedness plan and operational framework for implementation of the state of emergency for a designated period; 4) specification of a sunset clause or a time definite for termination of the state of emergency ; 5) provisions for further extension of the state of emergency and related procedures and 6) procedures for post state of emergency review and accountability. .

It is of the utmost importance that in a state of emergency, full control and responsibility for government operations and functions remain with civilian authorities. Military, police and security agencies must be subject to full civilian control or civilian supremacy. The alternative is a slippery slope to martial law.

Most parliaments also have the power to review the state of emergency at regular intervals and to suspend it as necessary.

In most national constitutions including the United States, no one individual has the sole authority to declare a state of emergency. Though a president or prime minster may initiate a declaration of state of emergency, it is often the case that the parliament and in the U.S., the Congress, that has the power to issue the declaration or retroactively ratify it as the U.S.  President Abe Lincoln’s assertion of vast presidential war powers during the civil war is instructive. In 1861, Lincoln claimed as commander-in-chief he had the power to “take any measure which may best subdue the enemy”, declared martial law and suspended the writ of habeas corpus by presidential decree and authorized the trial of civilians by military courts. He declared, “I may in an emergency do things on military grounds which cannot be done constitutionally by Congress.”  Subsequently, Congress ratified Lincoln’s actions.

State of emergency declarations must conform to international law

State of emergency declarations often involve restrictions on the course of social, economic, civil and political activity and curtail civil liberties and rights. The overriding concern is always the abuse and misuse of a state of emergency by the ruling regime issuing the declaration to suppress the opposition, dissent and human rights.  All states should have an interest in ensuring that the declaration and implementation of states of emergency are subject to certain limitations and proceed in accordance with international norms.

Ethiopia became a party by accession to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), in June 1993. Article 4 to the ICCPR allows states “in a time of public emergency to take measures derogating from their obligations under the present Covenant to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation”, subject to notification of the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Under ICCPR, there are additional requirements that states must meet in justifying a declaration of a state of emergency:

1) it must be supported by substantial evidence of exceptional, real and imminent threat to the nation; 2) the declaration must not negate the principle of the rule of law or encourage state action in violation of the principle of the rule of law; 3) it must not condone or approve violations of non-derogable fundamental human right principles including the prohibition on torture, freedom from slavery, freedom of thought, conscience and religion and the right to recognition before the law, the humane treatment of all persons deprived of their liberty, prohibition of propaganda advocating war or national, racial, or religious hatred; 4) citizens must be fully informed of the facts and legal basis for the declaration; 5) the state must notify  appropriate treaty-monitoring bodies as per Article 4; 6) the aim at the end of the limited state of emergency must be to secure a swift return to normalcy and the restoration of the constitutional order in which rights can again be fully ensured; 7) whatever the emergency situation, the post hoc accountability powers of parliament, i.e. the right to conduct inquiries and investigations on the execution of emergency powers ought to be guaranteed by law. This is important for both assessing government behaviour and identifying lessons learned with a view to future emergencies.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has recently published detailed guidelines on the declaration of state of emergency necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis incorporating ICCPR treaty language. A proper state of emergency declaration must be 1) “strictly temporary in scope”; 2) “least intrusive to achieve the stated public health goals” and 3) “include safeguards such as sunset or review clauses, in order to ensure return to ordinary laws as soon as the emergency situation is over.”

To declare or not to declare a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election is NOT the question

On March 31, 2020, the independent Ethiopian Election Commission (Art. 102, Ethiopian Constitution) issued a statement that “because of issues related to the coronavirus, the board has decided it cannot conduct the election as planned… so it has decided to void that calendar and suspend all activities.” On April 30, Commission Chair Birtukan Mideksa formally reported to the Ethiopian parliament that given COVID-19, it is “impossible” for her commission to do the vital preparatory work to conduct a free and fair election. Because of COVID-19, the Commission could not undertake voter registration and education, ballot preparation and distribution of election materials, organize election observers and train election workers, supervise nomination of candidates, monitor campaign activities, organize polling booths and other related essential functions.

It is manifest to all reasonable minds that the August elections cannot proceed with the COVID-19 crisis upending the country’s social, economic and political system. It is foolhardy,  downright reckless and dangerous to even suggest that full-scale election campaigns and electoral preparations can go on given the great uncertainties in the spread of COVID19 in Ethiopia. It is because of the deep uncertainties in the burgeoning COVID-19 crisis, the need to devote all available material and human resources to its prevention, treatment and mitigation, the necessity to deal effectively with the social and economic dislocations caused by the crisis and ultimately to ensure a free and fair election that can withstand international standards and scrutiny that the election must be postponed for a reasonable period of time or until the pandemic threat is declared minimal for normal processes to continue.

Unfortunately, the constitutional timetable cannot be met because of the force majeure of COVID-19. To proceed with the August election would be playing Russian roulette on the heads of 110 million Ethiopian with a fully loaded gun. Untold numbers of people could die and the resulting impact on society would be catastrophic.

The question is not whether a state of emergency can be declared to postpone the August 2020 election. The question is how best to postpone the election with public dialogue that maximizes accountability, transparency, inclusivity and collective concern for the public good.

The constitutional matrix for postponement of the August 2020 election

Mamo Mehretu has summarized the various suggested options along four dimensions: 1) The current government stays with a limited mandate as “caretaker” after the dissolution of parliament; 2) The current government extends term through a state of emergency and enjoys regular full mandate; 3) clarification can be obtained through a constitutional amendment; and 4) refer the question to the House of Federation’s Council of Constitutional Inquiry, for constitutional interpretation and final determination. Ethiopian legal experts have studied the issues and made their recommendations.

Transitional government?

First, let me dispose of two arguments that claim there are no constitutional options to postpone the election. Proponents argue the only solution is political and insist on the formation of a “transitional government.” Second, TPLF leaders have proclaimed they can organize and run their own election in Tigray region “because there will not be a legitimate government after September 2020” when the current five-year term ends for the current parliament.

In August 1991, I wrote a commentary on the TPLF’s proposals for a “transitional government reflecting the differences of opinion, interests and aspirations of the peoples of the country.” The late TPLF leader Meles Zenawi said Ethiopia’s problems stemmed from “denial of democratic rights” and pronounced the end of an “unjust system that relegated the people to the status of second-class citizens in their own country.” The TPLF “transitional government” led to a 27-year TPLF dictatorship in Ethiopia.

In 2015, I argued Ethiopia needs a “a successful transition from dictatorship to constitutional democracy. Ethiopians need to practice the arts of civil discourse and negotiations. As difficult and embarrassing as it is to admit, many Ethiopian elites on all sides seem to suffer from a culture of inflexibility and zero-sum gamesmanship.” In other words, those who clamored for a transitional government in 2015 and those clamoring for it today cannot even sit together and have a conversation on soccer let alone dialogue meaningfully over the weighty issue of forming a transitional government. None of the “leaders” publicly urging formation of a transitional government today have any credibility and are known for their dishonesty, duplicity and mendacity.

A “transitional government” for six months until a new election can be held is absurd and nonsensical.

Manifestly, the proponents of the formation of a transitional government are naïve, ignorant, benighted or all three. Transitional governments are not formed in a day or even a month. They are extraordinarily difficult and often futile exercises. There are many preparatory undertakings that must precede even before the parties to form such a government are brought together for discussion. Independent third-party intermediators must be established. Contentious agenda items must be negotiated. Terms of power sharing must be drafted and circulated. Contending groups and leaders must be selected using criteria likely to be contentious. Deadlines and timetables must be set and other logistical arrangements must be made.

Talk of a transitional government is a red herring, an irrelevant topic introduced to divert public attention.

The proponents of a transitional government in Ethiopia should carefully study the experience of South Sudan.

In 2015, leaders of contending factions in South Sudan signed an agreement to create a transitional government, which did not even last until the ink on the agreement dried. Because of the failure to implement that agreement, hundreds of thousands of innocent South Sudanese died in factional violence and massive human rights violations were committed by both sides.

In 2019, pressured by the U.N and the U.S., the South Sudanese leaders again agreed to form a transitional unity government to end a five-year civil war.

It was not until February 2020, barely two months ago, that the South Sudanese were able to implement a transitional government agreement. How long that will last is anybody’s guess.

The proposal for a transitional government for Ethiopia until the next election, following postponement of the August 2020, is an invitation to anarchy, disorder, lawlessness and mobocracy.

Those who are howling for a transitional government in lieu of postponement of the August 2020 election are either willfully ignorant, think they can steal their way into power in the chaos of a transitional government or both. Truth be told, what these “leaders” want is not a transitional government. They want to create chaos in government so that they can transition themselves into power.

The TPLF’s plans for an illegal regional election

The TPLF’s proclamation that they will proceed to have elections in August 2020 in complete disregard of the mandate in Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution shows the utter hypocrisy and abysmal duplicity that is coded in their DNA. Article 102 provides, “There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies.”

The TPLF has always been a fair-weather friend of the Ethiopian Constitution. They will pontificate and defend the Constitution when it suits their purposes and throw it away like a dirty rag when they are held to account under it.

The TPLF Central Committee Official Statement on the Occasion of the 45th Anniversary in February 2020, barely two months ago, proclaimed:

Institutions and institutionalism are being destroyed. Reversal of the country’s achievements accompanied by monstrous violations and actions in both the economic and the political fronts are prevalent. The Constitution, which is the only reliable savior of the country, is violated and rule of law is endangered…The continuity of the country is guaranteed only when the Constitution and the federal system of governance are respected. Thus, we assure you that TPLF will work with you in strengthening and scaling up the struggle you have already begun to save the Constitution and the multinational federal system.” (Boldface added.)

In May 2020, the TPLF is caught red handed destroying institutions and institutionalism –indeed, the most important institution of democratic election – established under Article 102.  When the TPLF invokes the Constitution to suit its purposes it is “the only reliable savior of the country.” When it does not, it is not worth the paper it is written on.

The proclamations of the TPLF merchants of lies, deceit and duplicity remind me of lines from Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice:

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!

So, the TPLF Princes of Darkness can cite the Constitution for their own purposes with a smiling cheek!

In 2006, I wrote a commentary severely criticizing the TPLF regime for its failure to respect its constitution in the treatment of the Kinijit Party defendants and others. One of the charges against those defendants was violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”). Suffice it to say that the TPLF proclamation to hold a regional election in Tigray in violation of Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution and a flagrant violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”).

I am not surprised by the TPLF’s threat to breach the Constitution for two reasons. First, since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

Second, the TPLF was established for the single purpose of creating a “Tigray State”. In its Manifesto, the TPLF declared its mission is to create an independent Tigray State. The TPLF claimed Tigray was invaded by (Emperor) Atse Menelik and became an Amhara colony.  When the TPLF was in power, its core strategy was to systematically cleanse Ethiopian national identity, history and consciousness. It is a fact that the TPLF has NEVER repudiated its Manifesto.

In the 1990s, the late Meles Zenawi  was fond of saying that without his guiding hand and TPLF leadership, Ethiopia will go the way of Yugoslavia. Balkanization was Meles’ dream for Ethiopia. It is the TPTLF’s dream today. For a quarter of a century, the TPLF toiled day and night to carve up and chop up Ethiopia to facilitate and prolong their rule.

Having failed to dismember Ethiopia, the TPLF now prepares to dismember Tigray from Ethiopia by holding an illegal election. (Aya jibo, satamehagne bilagn.) 

No one should be surprised. What the TPLF is doing by conducting its own illegal election is simply to use the current so-called constitutional crisis to implement their dream of a “Tigray State” foretold in their Manifesto. They will fail!

We must be clear about the constitutional issues at hand

The constitutional question on the delay and postponement of the August 2020 election arises from an apparent lack of clarity in Article 58 (3) of the Ethiopian Constitution which mandates, “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”  Unfortunately, Article 58 does not expressly anticipate postponement or delay of elections or provide for extraordinary circumstances that could prevent an election as prescribed in the timetable.

The current term of parliament expires by the end of September 2020, which means under Article 58 (3), the election must take place by the end of August. The problem is such an election cannot be held within the constitutionally prescribed time frame because of the COVID-19 crisis.

The question is what constitutional mechanism are available to address the apparent lack of express language authorizing postponement or delay of an election under Article 58?

The experience in American constitutional jurisprudence should prove instructive in this regard.

The U.S. Constitution contains 4,543 words, including the signatures and with the 27 amendments comes to a total of 7,591. The Constitution “phrasing is broad and the limitations of its provisions are not clearly marked. Its majestic generalities and ennobling pronouncements are both luminous and obscure. This ambiguity of course calls forth interpretation, the interaction of reader and text…”

The 19th century British Prime Minister William Gladstone said, “The American Constitution is, so far as I can see, the most wonderful work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.” I agree and am very proud to have had the privilege to teach, practice and defend it in the highest state and federal courts of the United States.

In contrast, the Ethiopian Constitution barely three decades-old and contains 13,625 words by my count. It needs much refinement and careful redrafting.

The 1787 U.S. Constitution does not designate a branch of government to definitively resolve constitutional questions and issues. Article III which creates the judicial branch does not grant the Supreme Court the express power to review the constitution and render a definitive interpretation.

In 1803, in Marbury v. Madison, arguably the single most important case in American legal history, the U.S. Supreme Court case established the principle of judicial review. Justice John Marshall declared it was the exclusive duty and responsibility of the judicial branch to interpret and apply the language of the Constitution. “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is,” including the supreme law of the land. With that case, Marshall managed to establish the power of the court as the ultimate arbiter of the Constitution. The U.S. Constitution has been developed through interpretation and re-interpretationby the courts.

Unlike the U.S. Constitution, the Ethiopian Constitution clearly delegates the ultimate power of constitutional interpretation to the House of Federation with investigative powers granted to Council of Constitutional Inquiry. To borrow from Marbury v. Madison, “It is emphatically the province and duty of the House of Federation to say what the constitutional law is and is not.” Indeed, the House of Federation over the past decades has been engaged in “investigating questions of constitutional interpretation from various individuals and sections of the society.”

Article 62 (1) provides, “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 83 (1) “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1) “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.”

Therefore, there is no question that the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry have the power to review the issue of delay or postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 58 and render a final determination.

The task of the Council of Constitutional Inquiry are spelled out in Article 84(1) of the Constitution (which empowers the Council to “investigate constitutional disputes”)  and Proclamation 798/2013. The Council is established as an independent body (Art. 15) consisting of the President and Vice President  of the Federal Supreme Court as chair and vice chair respectively, six legal experts of high standing  appointed by the President of the Republic on recommendation by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, and three persons designated by the House of the Federation from among its members.

Under Article 3 of Proclamation 798, the Council has the power to consider and review for constitutionality “any law or customary practice or decision of government organ or decision of government official” submit its recommendation to the House of the Federation.” Under Article 9, the Council has the power to compel “pertinent institutions or professionals, to appear before it and give opinions.”

The House of Federation and the Council are expected to review issues before them fairly and impartially and with fidelity to the principles of constitutionalism, fairness, equity and justice.

While I am not presumptuous enough to tell the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry on how to perform their constitutional responsibilities, I would like to share my experience as a teacher and practitioner of American constitutional law for over three decades. Indeed, I have been privileged to spar in and out of court with some of the highest jurists and academics in America on constitutional interpretation. I trust the Federation and Council will consider my views as part of their deliberation.

In performing constitutional review, I believe the House of Federation must be guided by two questions:

First, in the absence of express language authorizing delay or postponement of an election under Article 54, does a force majeure epidemic recognized under Proclamation 3/2020 provide a necessary and sufficient condition for postponement under Article 93 (a)?

Second, is there an independent constitutional basis to postpone the August 2020 election based exclusively on Article 93 (a)?

The first question requires the House of Federation to interpret Article 54 and determine whether postponement can be obtained consistent with the language and spirit of that Article.

First, let me state that Ethiopia, unlike the United States, does not have a well-established tradition of constitutional interpretation. The U.S. has a rich constitutional history that spans well over two centuries. There are hundreds of thousands of constitutional appellate decisions that serve as precedent and countless numbers of academic and scholarly treatises and critiques on the constitution and how it should be interpreted. Ethiopia does not have the benefit of a well-developed constitutional jurisprudence and scholarship.

In the absence of guiding judicial precedents, doctrines, standards and tests to interpret and fix the meaning of constitutional language, the House of Federation and Council should follow an approach/principle employed widely by American jurists called “Ockham’s razor”, which prescribes the correct answer is often the simplest one. In other words, in their task of constitutional interpretation, the Federation and Council should not waste time engaging in academic and scholastic analysis and debates and be distracted by inconsequential political rhetoric squandering their energies. Rather, their aim should be provide a simple direct answer based on an ordinary understanding of language found in Article 58 and related provisions of the Constitution and render a decision based on reasonable explanations.

In my view, the House of Federation should begin its constitutional analysis NOT by simply focusing on Article 58 but rather by undertaking a structural interpretation of Article 58 within the bundle of constitutional provisions dealing with elections, including Articles 38(1)(c); 38(3); 54 (1), 58(3) and 102(1) (relevant constitutional provision are excerpted at the end of this commentary), the totality of the structure of the constitution and the history of the electoral process since the promulgation of the Constitution in 1995.

The texts of Article 54(1), 58 (3) and 102(1) are clear on the constitutional mandate of ensuring election of members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives for a term of five years in a free and fair elections and for the National Election Board to be the sole organizer and arbiter of such an election. The texts of Article 38 (1)(c) and (3) are equally clear in underscoring the necessity of having elections that “guarantee the free expression of the will of the electors” and that such elections “be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

The seminal question within the bundle of these provisions is why the drafters of the Constitution omitted contingency language in the event an election could not be held as mandated in Article 58(3). Were the drafters simply unaware of a possibility that could lead to a postponement of an election? Did they intentionally omit it such language? Did they intend to create chaos and anarchy by leaving out a contingency clause?

A fair and reasonable reading of Article 58(3) shows that the language therein was intended to be an ironclad constitutional guarantee that elections will take place as prescribed, and not to preclude delay or postponement under extraordinary circumstances. Article 58 did not provide qualificatory language for postponement or delays because the drafters had already anticipated and provided for such extraordinary circumstances under Article 93, which specifically include external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order, a natural disaster, or an epidemic. For instance, there could be no election if the country is under external invasion. The outcome is the same if the country is facing a pandemic of global proportions.

One of the principal purpose of constitutional interpretation is to harmonize the meaning of constitutional language and to illuminate obscure implications locked in words and reconcile linguistic omissions with intended constitutional purposes to produce fair and reasonable outcomes, and in extreme cases to sever language that is manifestly repugnant to the scheme of the constitution.

The House of Federal and Council of Constitutional Inquiry should consider the constitutional scheme evident in Articles 38, 54, 58 and 102 and obtain a result that harmonizes these provisions in rendering their judgment.

Alternative I- Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 93

In my constitutional analysis, the critical issue is not the simple fact of meeting a designated constitutional deadline for an election but most importantly the fact of ensuring elections that are held are free and fair. It is pointless to have an election on a particular date if it is not free and fair.

Since 1991, Ethiopia has had elections for the purpose of having elections but none of them were free and fair. For the TPLF elections were nothing more than ritualistic practices and not a process by which the people elected their leaders freely and fairly. Indeed, for the TPLF elections were political theater staged for the benefit of donors and loaners as I argued in my 2009 commentary. Before an election, the TPLF created a fanfare, snagged millions of dollars in aid to conduct the elections and on election day declared total victory. I called elections under the TPLF regime “elektions”, that is fake elections.

In 2011, Seeye Abraha, one of the founders of the TPLF wrote, “The most incredible fact about the May 2010 Ethiopian election is not that the ruling Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) won; that was foreordained.”

A foreordained election is not much of an election. It is political drama.

In a country where there are over 80 political parties, in 2010, the TPLF regime claimed to have won 99.6 percent of the seats in parliament in 2010.

In 2015, the TPLF claimed it had won 100 percent.

Neither the 2010 nor 2015 elections could be called free and fair by any reasonable standard but they were held on the constitutionally prescribed date.

An election that is not free and fair is no election at all. It is a travesty of election, a monumental disregard of the democratic right to self-government.

Whether or not the August 2020 election should be postponed should pivot on a single question: Given the COVID-19 crisis, is it possible to have a free and fair election in August 2020?

For me, elections under the Ethiopian Constitution is not about having a mechanical process of selecting candidates on a prescribed date. It is about ONE and only ONE thing: Having a free and fair election!

While ignorant demagogues and political junkies bandy the phrase “free and fair election” like expletives, it is rooted in universally accepted principles and practices.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union which represents 179 parliaments, including Ethiopia’s, has published standards for free and fair election which include establishment of 1) procedures and criteria for voter registration, initiation or facilitation of national programs of civic education on election procedures and issues; 2) neutral, impartial mechanism for the management of elections; recruitment and training of election officials and operatives; 3) procedures to ensure the integrity of the ballot and institution of  measures to prevent voting fraud, establishment of mechanisms to ensure the integrity of the vote counting process, 4) mechanisms to ensure freedom of movement, assembly, association and expression for all contenders, particularly in the context of political rallies and meetings and creating conditions that will ensure parties and candidates are free to communicate their views to the electorate and 5) updating of electoral rolls and balloting procedures, and monitoring of performance under election Code of Conduct, among others.

The African Union Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa sets similar standards for free and fair election. Under Section III are listed numerous factors that must exist to ensure a free and fair election including: compilation of voters’ registers, establishment of national electoral bodies staffed by qualified personnel, set up of safeguards ensuring freedom of movement, assembly, association, expression, and campaigning, promote civic and voters’ education on the democratic principles and values in close cooperation with the civil society groups, implementation of measures to prevent the perpetration of fraud, rigging or any other illegal practices throughout the whole electoral process, ensure the availability of adequate logistics and resources for carrying out democratic elections and provision of adequate security to all parties participating in elections as well as accrediting national and/other observers/monitors.

These internationally recognized conditions for a free and fair election simply cannot be met today or in August 2020 as unequivocally stated by the head of  the National Election Commission because of the COVID-19 crisis.

What constitutional options are available to ensure that a free and fair election is held?

Since the reason precluding a free and fair election in August 2020 is COVID-19 and since COVID-19 is constitutionally recognized as creating a state of emergency in Proclamation 3/2020, it follows that an already recognized emergency under Article 93 is a constitutionally sufficient condition to postpone the election by a declaration of a state of emergency.

The constitutional framework for Proclamation 3/2020 include Article 77(10) (“The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”) and Article 93 which provides:

  1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency… [in the event of] … an epidemic….
  2. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration… [and when not in session it]  shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
  3. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months [and extended]… by a two-thirds majority vote…every four months successively
  4. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall… have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and subArticles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts [with the duty of]…mak[ing] public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest… [ensure] no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane… [and] (c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government has the plenary constitutional power to declare a state of emergency, in much the same way as it did in Proclamation 3/2020 and postpone the election for the constitutionally mandated period of six months.

A Proclamation to postpone the August 2020 election should be crafted in the same way as Proclamation 3/2020.

Alternative II: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 60: Dissolution of Parliament  

The Prime Minister has plenary powers to dissolve parliament before the expiry of its term.  The Prime Minister is required to consult and obtain the consent of Parliament but ultimately the power to dissolve parliament is delegated to the office of the prime minister. The post-dissolution government will serve as a “caretaker” government.

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3) provides, “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5) provides, “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Dissolution of parliament is not a viable alternative. Indeed, it is recipe for anarchy and chaos. The post-dissolution government is mandated to play the role of “care taker” which means it is limited in its scope of action. The Prime Minster and the Council of Ministers will be limited to “essential business”. They cannot undertake any new policy initiatives. They cannot make new appointments. They cannot enter into international agreements.

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is facing an existential threat unprecedented in living memory?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when hundreds of thousands, and possible more, Ethiopians are facing a death sentence at the hands of COVID-19?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is in the grips of COVID-19, Egypt is saber-rattling and beating the drums of war against Ethiopia if Ethiopia should begin to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam in July 2020?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when there are those proclaiming to hold their own elections in violation of Article 104 of the Constitution and de facto create their own state?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when the world’s leading economists are predicting COVID-19 will exact “a heavy toll on the economy”?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when so-called leaders are stoking the flames of ethnic and religious division so that they can grab power?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is rising as a model of democracy, rule of law and human rights in Africa and the rest of the world?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia needs hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and aid to fight COVID-19 but will not have a government capable of concluding international agreements. The IMF gave Ethiopia over USD 400 million because it was impressed by the approach and commitment of the government of PM Abiy Ahmed in the COVID-19 crisis. The IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted, “I commend the swift and decisive response by @AbiyAhmedAli  and #Ethiopia to mitigate the impact of #COVID19.”

PM Abiy will not be able to deal with the IMF, the Wold Bank or any other government or agency if he is the head of a caretaker government!

For lack of a more appropriate phrase fit for polite company to describe my reactions to a dissolved parliament followed by a caretaker government, I will simply say, Bah! Humbug!

Alternative III: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 104 – Amending the Constitution

Article 104 provides for a constitutional amendment: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

According to one legal commentator, the Ethiopian Constitution has been “amended twice in the past twenty years.” Article 98 was “amended so as to change the spirit of concurrent power of taxation into revenue sharing.” Article 103(5) was amended “to extend the period for conducting national population census to more than 10 years.” This commentator cites authority for the proposition that the “Ethiopian Constitution is silent on defining the bodies having the power to initiate constitutional amendments.” The commentator argues “the constitutional framers [] wished to give the [amendment] power to the House of Peoples’ Representatives, House of Federation and State Councils.” The commentator “conclude[s] in Ethiopia, the HPR, the HoF and State Councils have the power to initiate constitutional amendments” and presentation of the final “‘submi[ssion] [of the amendment] to the general public for discussion and decision”. It “is not clear whether it denotes referendum or not.”

The principle of Ockham’s razon should apply here. There is no need to seek out complex and convoluted solutions when direct and constitutionally sound solutions are available. If indeed a referendum is required for ratification of a constitutional amendment under Article 104 in which a direct and universal vote is required, one might as well have the August 2020 election in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis. If the August 2020 election could not be held because of COVID-19, by the same token no referendum on a constitutional amendment could also held.

The bottom line

The choice is simple. Saving Ethiopian lives against having an election on a particular date and risk untold numbers of deaths. Elections make sense when people are alive. Those who try to make political hay out of the postponement of the August election have no regard for the lives of the people they claim to protect and represent. They are only interested in grabbing power at all costs. They will continue to run around threatening violence if the election is postponed and claim there will be no legitimate government after September 2020. But they will find out that when push comes to shove, the velvet gloves will be taken off. They may see this as their last opportunity to sneak themselves into power. They will fail in their evil plans because the people of Ethiopia will reject them totally.

Regardless, The alpha and omega constitutional question in the current debate over postponing the August 2019 elections is whether it is possible given the COVID-19 crisis it is possible to hold a free and fair election, not the mechanical process of electing candidates to office. If an election could be held on the scheduled date but it cannot be free and fair, it will amount to nothing more than an exercise in futility and a gross abuse of the people’s right to democratic self-rule.

To be continued…

 

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Relevant Constitutional Provisions:

Article 38 (1) (c): “Every Ethiopian national has the right to vote and to be elected at periodic elections to any office at any level of government; elections shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors.”

Article 38 (3): “Elections to positions of responsibility within any of the organizations referred to under sub-Article 2 of this Article shall be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

Article 5: “The Federal government has the power to declare and to lift national state of emergency and states of emergencies limited to certain parts of the country.”

Article 54 (1): “Article Members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected by the People for a term of five years on the basis of universal suffrage and by direct, free and fair elections held by secret ballot.”

55 (8): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives in conformity with Article 93 of the Constitution it shall declare a state of emergency; it shall consider and resolve on a decree of a state of emergency declared by the executive.”

Article 58 (3): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3): “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5): “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Article 62 (1): “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 77 (10): “The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval’ by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”

Article 83 (1): “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1): “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.  (2) 2. Where any Federal or State law is contested as being unconstitutional and such a dispute is submitted to it by any court or interested party, the Council shall consider the matter…

Article 87: “The armed forces shall protect the sovereignty of the country and carry out any responsibilities as may be assigned to them under any state of emergency declared in accordance with the Constitution.”

Article 93: 1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency should an external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order and which cannot be controlled by the regular law enforcement agencies and personnel, a natural disaster, or an epidemic occur.

  1. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration. (b) Subject to the required vote of approval set out in (a) of this sub-Article, the decree declaring a state of emergency when the House of peoples’ Representatives is not in session shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
  2. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months. The House of Peoples’ Representatives may, by a two-thirds majority vote, allow the state of emergency proclamation to be renewed every four months successively
  3. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall, in accordance with regulations it issues, have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and sub Articles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts.

  1. The State of Emergency Inquiry Board shall have the following powers and responsibilities:

(a) To make public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest.

(b) To inspect and follow up that no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane.

(c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

(d) To ensure the prosecution of perpetrators of inhumane acts.

(e) To submit its views to the House of Peoples’ Representatives on a request to extend the duration of the state of emergency.

Article 102 (1) (2): “1. There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies. 2. Members of the Board shall be appointed by the House of Peoples’ Representatives upon recommendation of the Prime Minister.”

Article 104: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

 

The post Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures: The Necessity of Postponing the August 29, 2020 Federal Parliamentary/Regional Elections in Ethiopia (Part II) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Time for VOA Amharic to Upgrade Its U.S. Election Coverage

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By Alula M. Abate

Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden had a memorable Super Tuesday last week (March 3, 2020) with a stunning come-from-behind victory in ten states  in the biggest election day of the Democratic Primary competition. In the delegate rich state of Texas, which is home to tens of thousands of Ethiopian Americans, Biden won 60% of the black vote. Historically, the results on Super Tuesday are considered a powerful barometer of the high probability of the ultimate nominee of each political party. In addition to Texas Biden captured 69 % of the black vote in Virginia, which is also home to a sizable concentration of Ethiopian American voters and an incredible 72 percent in Alabama.

“In recent decades, old-style kingmakers faded from American politics. This year, though, there are hundreds of thousands of them: the African American voters across the South who gave Joe Biden a lead in the race for the Democratic nomination,” stated the Washington post. “There appeared to be some regional and generational differences in which candidates black voters prefer. Biden won the African American vote by considerably smaller margins in California, Massachusetts and Minnesota. Exit polls suggested that, in keeping with his strength among young voters, Sanders likely beat Biden among black voters under 30. But Biden won the overall black vote everywhere. Black America, it would seem, has made up its mind.”

Indeed, historians and political scientists  point out that the “interracial, interethnic and intergenerational collaboration that elected Obama and Biden in 2008 and 2012 remains a force to be reckoned with in 2020.

Be that as it may, the question remains where exactly is America headed under the current administration?

Traditionally during an election year the media plays an indispensable part in providing answers while shaping the public conversation and debate, which is the hallmark of a mature democratic system. Regrettably, however, VOA Amharic is failing when it comes to its redundant, superfluous and one-sided Ethiopian diaspora punditry that has remained virtually unchanged for the past three presidential election cycles. One of the major ways the media such as VOA  contributes to the health of this  participatory civic experience is by selecting which commentators to feature when and why. Voters depend on credible information to make reasonable choices, not mulish puffery and agitprop.

Joe Biden’s resurgent victory may or may not be a harbinger of things to come in the general election, but what’s clear is that the sentiments of the democratic party’s silent majority is no longer in doubt. When all is said and done it’s the job of good journalism to help separate the wheat from the chaff and the spin from the propaganda. The ACE Electoral Knowledge Network, which is the world’s largest online community and repository of electoral knowledge, illustrates that ”media’s role as a public educator is in essence a combination of media’s other roles (including as “watchdogs,” and “forums for debate”].  ACE specifies that “media as a campaign platform ensures the public is educated in political agendas of all participating parties and candidates equally. ”

For starters, the tax-payer funded channel should diversify its Ethiopian-American portfolio in order to present a more balanced election coverage in 2020. Ethiopian American viewpoints are not chiseled out of a single stone. To the contrary, they are as diverse as Ethiopia itself holding very divergent perspectives on various matters both local and international informed by their own individual experiences.  The instability of the stock market, the unfolding health crisis, worries about an imminent economic downturn and other local kitchen-table issues as well as foreign policy developments are all driving factors behind the average Ethiopian voter.

On foreign policy, for example, most Ethiopians have become disappointed to say the least by the Trump administration’s recent undiplomatic maneuvers in favor of Egypt in connection with Ethiopia’s five billion dollars Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Nile (Abay) river. The whole backhanded scheme blew up in the face of the Trump administration and Egypt when Ethiopia withdrew from the latest talks being held in the U.S. capital and lambasted America for its insensitive and tactless handling of the negotiations. The Egypt-Ethiopia fiasco follows Trump’s bizarre public taunting of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed two months ago for winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Abiy Ahmed received the distinguished international accolade for making his own deal with Eritrea that ended the longest running border conflict in Africa. Moreover, it was extremely improper that Trump in conspiracy with his head of the Department of the Treasury Steven Terner Mnuchin and  the World Bank reportedly exerted (unsuccessfully) undue financial pressure on Ethiopia to accept a rushed agreement that jeopardized its national security. Regardless, the fundamentals of U.S.-Ethiopia relations remain normal, both countries assure the world, as U.S. insists that its 5 billion cash promise is intended to help Ethiopia’s political reform not influence the Abay decision. Given Trump’s habit of playing fast and loose with the truth, it’s hard to believe what his administration is saying about anything. Some Ethiopians are even urging Prime Minister Abiy to release all documents and communications about the dam discussions to the public in defense of Ethiopia. As Bob Marly says ‘Time will tell.’

In the final analysis, all things considered, it would be a win-win for VOA’s Amharic program and its international audience to expand the networker’s domestic political space beyond current levels and incorporate the overlooked younger voters, as well as activists in the diaspora including volunteers for Biden, Sanders and even Trump (if there are any at this point). Surely there is no shortage of talent among Ethiopian Americans.  It’s time for VOA Amharic to upgrade its U.S. election coverage.

God bless America and Ethiopia!

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You can contact Alula M. Abate at abatealula1@gmail.com.

The post Time for VOA Amharic to Upgrade Its U.S. Election Coverage appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures: The Necessity of Postponing the August 29, 2020 Federal Parliamentary/Regional Elections in Ethiopia (Part II)

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Special Author’s Note: In Part I of this commentary last week,  I examined Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”) enacted to respond to the looming COVID-19 crisis in Ethiopia and determined it passed constitutional muster and scrutiny under international standards. That Proclamation is narrowly tailored, clearly written and carefully balances the interests of individual liberty with the necessity of safeguarding public health and safety.

In Part II, I shall argue the Ethiopian Government, having crafted a model health emergency legislation in Proclamation 3/2020, must now follow through by postponing and rescheduling the August 29, 2020 federal/regional parliamentary elections by exercising its constitutional authority, which includes, among others, declaring a state of emergency.

I was pleasantly surprised last week to learn the Ethiopian Parliament had decided to hear and consider a report from the Ethiopian National Election Board on the untenability of holding elections on August 29, 2020 given the COVID-19 crisis. Two weeks ago when I began drafting my commentaries on the necessity of taking “extraordinary constitutional measures” necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis, I had no idea the Ethiopian Parliament would take prompt action. I am glad Parliament decided to address the issue early on and provide ample time for public dialogue and discussion of available options. Indeed, I am pleased to see robust dialogue between the ruling Prosperity Party and opposition parties.  I am also impressed by the high quality of legal analysis and constitutional commentary. I am also amused by some of the dogmatic and uninformed public dialogue.

I have written these commentaries on the necessity of taking extraordinary constitutional measures in light of the COVID-19 crisis for three special reasons.  First, I aim to promote and support informed and critical constitutional discussion on urgent and emergent social, legal and political issues facing Ethiopian society.

Second, I aim to share my knowledge and expertise as a teacher and practitioner of constitutional law in America.

Third, I want to make sure the voices of diaspora Ethiopians are heard in the constitutional dialogue and debate currently taking place in Ethiopia. It must never be forgotten that many diaspora Ethiopians have fought relentlessly to bring democracy, the rule of law and protection of human rights in Ethiopia. My participation in the defense and promotion of human rights for nearly a decade and half in Ethiopia has been a labor of love. I want to make it perfectly clear that many diaspora Ethiopians have earned the right through blood, sweat and tears to have a say in the fate of our country. Let it never be forgotten that we were the voice of Ethiopia when Ethiopia had no voice– when Ethiopia was muzzled– for 27 years. Today, we want to make sure we are heard and our views taken into consideration in these trying times and as those doing the heavy lifting in Ethiopia make their decisions about the coming election and the democratic changes to follow.

It is in this spirit that I share my views in these commentaries.

Nota Bene: This commentary is admittedly very long. The headings are intended to capsulize the relevant subject matter and readers may read each section independently and follow my analysis and arguments. But I am not apologetic for the length of the commentary. The gravity of the constitutional issues demands a thorough analysis and incorporation of supporting evidence. Those who seek instant answers for the serious constitutional questions raised in a paragraph or two will be disappointed. Only those interested in an in-depth understanding of the issues will likely benefit from my commentaries. I am aware there are many interested individuals who would like to read my commentaries but are unable to do so because of linguistic challenges. I fervently hope someone, from among my readers, will be able to translate this series of commentaries into Amharic for the benefit of those who do not read English.

The abuse and misuse of extraordinary measures in the form of “state of emergency” declarations in Ethiopia

Historically, extraordinary measures have been taken in Ethiopia in the form of “state of emergency” declarations. Indeed, such measures have been synonymous with abuse of power, extrajudicial killings, mass arrests and incarcerations and generally massive human rights violations.

In November 1974, the so-called Derg military regime declared a state of emergency and imposed martial law in Ethiopia. Ad hoc military tribunals summarily executed former imperial government officials accused of corruption, maladministration and negligence in the country’s famine. The Derg launched a campaign of Red Terror killing and jailing hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians without due process of law. In the late 1980s, the Derg declared a state of emergency in the northern provinces of Ethiopia and imposed martial law resulting in massive human rights violations.

On May 15, 2005, following parliamentary election that day, Meles Zenawi, the late leader of the regime of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a nationally televised address declared a state of emergency by personal fiat (without constitutional authority) claiming he had to take action to “counter havoc and fear  created by opposition charges of abuses and a threat to reject the results.” Zenawi announced, “As of tomorrow, for the next one month no demonstrations of any sort will be allowed within the city and its environs. As peace should be respected … the government has decided to bring all the security forces, the police and the local militias, under one command accountable to the prime minister.” Zenawi immediately contradicted himself by stating, “We are not expecting any big danger, but as a government there is a role to play in looking after the peace and harmony of the people. This action is just simply a precaution to see that no one is endangered.” As a result of Zenawi’s state of emergency, nearly 800 persons were killed and over 30 thousand incarcerated. An Inquiry Commission created by Zenawi himself laid the blame entirely on Zenawi and his regime for excessive use of force.

I joined the Ethiopian human rights movement to vindicate the victims of the Meles Massacres of 2005.

On October 9, 2016, the government of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) issued its “State of Emergency Command Post” Decree on the vague pretext that “the situation posed a threat against the people of the country.” That decree was issued in a futile attempt to brutally suppress popular opposition to TPLF ethnic oppression.

resolutely opposed that emergency declaration: “The T-TPLF did not declare a state of emergency for Ethiopia. It declared an emergency S.O.S. for the “S.S. (Sinking Ship) T-TPLF”.

Since 2009, the TPLF regime, for all intents and purposes, has used its so-called anti-terrorism law (Proclamation No. 652/2009), to impose a de jure (by law) state of emergency. Under that “Proclamation”, the T-TPLF created a police state and imposed a reign of terror. Thousands were arbitrarily arrested, tortured and killed on an industrial scale.

When Erin Burnett of CNN visited Ethiopia in July 2012, she described what she saw in stark terms:

We saw what an African police state looked like when I was in Ethiopia last month… At the airport, it took an hour to clear customs – not because of lines, but because of checks and questioning. Officials tried multiple times to take us to government cars so they’d know where we went. They only relented after forcing us to leave hundreds of thousands of dollars of TV gear in the airport…”

On March 19, 2017, the TPLF government announced it had lifted three elements of the state of emergency having to do with arbitrary searches and searches and curfews.

On March 30, 2017, the TPLF government authorized  a four-month extension of the state of emergency absurdly arguing  “82 percent of Ethiopians want a partial or full continuation of the state of emergency.”  More than 25,000 people suspected of taking part in protests were detained under that state of emergency.

resolutely opposed the extension of that state of emergency. I warned the TPLF they will never be able to contain the volcanic eruption of the people’s anger and frustration by declaring a command post government.

In June 2018, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed permanently lifted the state of emergency and opened the political space for all contenders, including those declared terrorist and sentenced to death in absentia, to return to the country and help build a democratic governance process.

Let the facts speak out! Let us not lie to ourselves!

The history of state of emergency in Ethiopia over the past three decades has been a history of state terror on citizens.

Ethiopia has been under a de facto or de jure state of emergency since May 28, 1991, the date the TPLF rebels marched from the bush on the capital Addis Ababa until April 2018. That was the principal means the TPLF used to imposed its will on the people of Ethiopia.

The unfortunate fact is that civilian and military dictators in Africa have ruled by declaration of state of emergency for far too long.

In 2011, Tunisia declared state of emergency following unrest from economic issues leading to the Arab Spring.

Egypt was ruled under a permanent state of emergency for 32 years, indeed a military dictatorship, which granted security forces sweeping powers of arrest, detention and prosecution in special courts was in place until it presumably ended in 2012. It seems the permanent state of emergency continues in Egypt today as President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi managed to remain president for life, at least until 2030.

In 2013, Nigeria declared a state of emergency for the entire northeastern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa because of attacks by the terrorist group Boko Haram.

In 2016, Namibia declared last a state of emergency because of an ongoing drought.

In 2017, Zambia declared a state of emergency following a fire that destroyed country’s biggest market in the capital Lusaka.

In 2019, Sudanese president Al Bashir declared a one-year state of emergency and dissolved the country’s central and state governments and replaced them by military leaders. He was subsequently overthrown which declared a state of emergency.

In 2019, Sierra Leone declared a state of emergency over widespread occurrences of rape and sexual assault in that country.

Why I support a declaration of a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election

It is a fair question to ask why I would urge, not merely support, postponement and rescheduling of the August 2020 election by declaration of a state of emergency or other constitutional mechanisms given my history of opposition to such declarations.

First, COVID-19 has been a global game changer. The pandemic has rocked the global economic system to the core. Even the most advanced industrialized countries are unable to withstand the chaos and dislocation created by COVID-19. The world has been reduced to a global village and the fate of the villagers intertwined. Countries have sought to deal with the COVID-19 crisis by taking extraordinary measures. As I demonstrated in Part I of my commentary last week, the Ethiopian Government drafted and implemented  Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”). I will not rehash those points here.

Second, as a die hard constitutionalist, I would like to see the Ethiopian Constitution serve as working, living and breathing instrument of government. Since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

While I believe that Constitution needs massive overhaul, the fact remains, to paraphrase a military metaphor of former U.S. Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld, “You resolve a constitutional question you have, not by a constitution you might want or wish to have at a later time.” There are multiple answers in the Ethiopian Constitution to address the question at hand.

Third, the government of PM Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly declared its wish, desire and determination to hold free and fair elections on numerous occasions. That commitment is irrevocable come hell or high water. Indeed, to make that possible, from the very beginning the government has completely opened the political space allowing organizations and individuals previously declared “terrorists” and “criminals” to participate in a peaceful manner. The government has even tolerated, in the face of enormous public pressure, individuals and organizations that have openly and flagrantly flouted the law in the interest of social harmony. No government that intends to impose dictatorial rule would allow the opposition that is sworn to violence and force to participate in the democratic process. That gives me great confidence that postponement of the election for 6 months will not lead to abuses of power or violation of human rights.

Fourth and most importantly, the government of PM Abiy has been committed to the principles of the rule of law, inclusivity, due process, resolution of problems by dialogue in free and open forums and full accountability and transparency. Until substantial and credible evidence (not bellyaching, teeth gnashing, mudslinging, whining and finger pointing) to the contrary is shown, I shall grant the full benefit of the doubt to the government based on what it has done to date in protecting human rights, institutionalizing the rule of law and promoting free and fair elections.

Fifth, unlike Ethiopia, many governments have criminalized reporting on COVID-19. The Egyptian Government made reporting on COVID-19 inconsistent with the government narrative a crime. Amnesty International reported, “The Egyptian authorities have made it very clear that anyone who challenges the official narrative will be severely punished.” Other countries that have criminalized COVID-19 reporting under a state of emergency decree include Iran, China, Hungary and South Africa, among others. Rodrigo Duterte shut down Philippines’ largest television network because he did not like the way the station reported on COVID-19.

In contrast, in Ethiopia under Article 7 (2) of Proclamation 3/2020, compels the private media to report on COVID-19 and participate in public education programs aimed at mitigation. If the Ethiopian government was interested in abusing power under a state of emergency decree, Proclamation 3/2020 would have provided it its best pretext. But the Ethiopian government chose to fight the COVID-19 war with full accountability, transparency and media scrutiny. I am very much impressed by that commitment. But I hasten to add that the media bears a heavy responsibility in its role as “watch dog”. It must not be a patsy for purveyors of lies, fake news and disinformation.

Understanding the juridical fact of “state of emergency”

In my discussions with may Ethiopian scholars, activists and political leaders, I have concluded most of them are unaware of the juridical nature of a “state of emergency” or the declaratory legislative act that brings it into existence. Indeed, I am surprised that many confuse declaration of state of emergency with martial law. While a declaration of a state of emergency may be used to impose martial law, it is different in the fact that under martial law the military takes direct functions of ordinary civilian government instituting military administration as was the case during the Derg regime in Ethiopia.

The modern idea of “state of emergency” has roots in Roman antiquity in which a “Roman magistrate with extraordinary powers was appointed during an emergency”. Indeed, “in the fifth and fourth centuries, the dictatorship was also used to solve internal problems, e.g., to conduct difficult elections or solve a constitutional crisis.” At the onset of the “Reign of Terror” in 1793 in the French Revolution, Robespierre and the Committee for Public safety declared a state of emergency and arbitrarily jailed and executed their opponents. It is after the French Revolution that “state of emergency” regimes became common and widespread especially in the 20th century.

There are two general perspectives on the legality of a “state of emergency”. One leading scholar on the subject argues declaration of state of emergency is a function of sovereignty. According to this view, “a polity must be entitled to decide whether to suspend the application of its law on the ground that the situation is abnormal.” The sovereign power may in its discretion bring about “a total suspension of the law and then to use extra-legal force to normalize the situation.” The competing legal/rule of law view argues legal norms, conditions and standards could be established for a declaration of a state of emergency with built-in safeguards to prevent abuse of power.

I do not regard the two views as mutually exclusive. I shall argue that a declaration of a state of emergency is inherently a sovereign act but is most effective when it is sanctioned and legitimized by constitutional or statutory authority. A government may declare a state of emergency when it determines the normal course and systems of governance are incapable of addressing an extraordinary occurrence. For instance, a government facing external aggression, imminent domestic insurrection, uncontrolled widespread civil unrest, natural disasters and epidemics does not necessarily obtain prior legislative approval before acting.

The scope of special emergency powers is determined by a given country’s constitution and   laws. Generally, a declaration of a state of emergency may restrict press freedom, prohibit public gatherings, grant security and military forces special powers of arrest and detention without due process of law, authorize extrajudicial search and seizures, regulate the economy and the operation of businesses and the like.

General state practice shows a country’s constitution or legislation normally describes the circumstances that can give rise to a state of emergency, enumerates the procedures to be followed and prescribes the scope of authority to be exercised under emergency powers. Usually, the head of the executive branch either declares a state of emergency and notifies the legislature within a specified period of time for ratification or proposes a declaration of state of emergency to the legislature to enact it into law. In a few countries, the legislature declares a state of emergency sua sponte.

Most constitutions require well-considered justifications and sufficient facts for the decision to declare a state of emergency and the specific measures to address the situation, among others: 1) facts supporting existence of extraordinary circumstances posing a fundamental threat to the country; 2) the legal framework consisting of constitutional and legislative authority for the implementation of the emergency declaration; 3) the emergency preparedness plan and operational framework for implementation of the state of emergency for a designated period; 4) specification of a sunset clause or a time definite for termination of the state of emergency ; 5) provisions for further extension of the state of emergency and related procedures and 6) procedures for post state of emergency review and accountability.

It is of the utmost importance that in a state of emergency, full control and responsibility for government operations and functions remain with civilian authorities. Military, police and security agencies must be subject to full civilian control or civilian supremacy. The alternative is a slippery slope to martial law.

Most parliaments also have the power to review the state of emergency at regular intervals and to suspend it as necessary.

In most national constitutions including the United States, no one individual has the sole authority to declare a state of emergency. Though a president or prime minster may initiate a declaration of state of emergency, it is often the case that the parliament and in the U.S., the Congress, that has the power to issue the declaration or retroactively ratify it as the U.S.  President Abe Lincoln’s assertion of vast presidential war powers during the civil war is instructive. In 1861, Lincoln claimed as commander-in-chief he had the power to “take any measure which may best subdue the enemy”, declared martial law and suspended the writ of habeas corpus by presidential decree and authorized the trial of civilians by military courts. He declared, “I may in an emergency do things on military grounds which cannot be done constitutionally by Congress.”  Subsequently, Congress ratified Lincoln’s actions.

State of emergency declarations must conform to international law

State of emergency declarations often involve restrictions on the course of social, economic, civil and political activity and curtail civil liberties and rights. The overriding concern is always the abuse and misuse of a state of emergency by the ruling regime issuing the declaration to suppress the opposition, dissent and human rights.  All states should have an interest in ensuring that the declaration and implementation of states of emergency are subject to certain limitations and proceed in accordance with international norms.

Ethiopia became a party by accession to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), in June 1993. Article 4 to the ICCPR allows states “in a time of public emergency to take measures derogating from their obligations under the present Covenant to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation”, subject to notification of the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Under ICCPR, there are additional requirements that states must meet in justifying a declaration of a state of emergency:

1) it must be supported by substantial evidence of exceptional, real and imminent threat to the nation; 2) the declaration must not negate the principle of the rule of law or encourage state action in violation of the principle of the rule of law; 3) it must not condone or approve violations of non-derogable fundamental human right principles including the prohibition on torture, freedom from slavery, freedom of thought, conscience and religion and the right to recognition before the law, the humane treatment of all persons deprived of their liberty, prohibition of propaganda advocating war or national, racial, or religious hatred; 4) citizens must be fully informed of the facts and legal basis for the declaration; 5) the state must notify  appropriate treaty-monitoring bodies as per Article 4; 6) the aim at the end of the limited state of emergency must be to secure a swift return to normalcy and the restoration of the constitutional order in which rights can again be fully ensured; 7) whatever the emergency situation, the post hoc accountability powers of parliament, i.e. the right to conduct inquiries and investigations on the execution of emergency powers ought to be guaranteed by law. This is important for both assessing government behaviour and identifying lessons learned with a view to future emergencies.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has recently published detailed guidelines on the declaration of state of emergency necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis incorporating ICCPR treaty language. A proper state of emergency declaration must be 1) “strictly temporary in scope”; 2) “least intrusive to achieve the stated public health goals” and 3) “include safeguards such as sunset or review clauses, in order to ensure return to ordinary laws as soon as the emergency situation is over.”

To declare or not to declare a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election is NOT the question

On March 31, 2020, the independent Ethiopian Election Board (Art. 102, Ethiopian Constitution) issued a statement that “because of issues related to the coronavirus, the board has decided it cannot conduct the election as planned… so it has decided to void that calendar and suspend all activities.” On April 30, Board  Chair Birtukan Mideksa formally reported to the Ethiopian parliament that given COVID-19, it is “impossible” for her Board to do the vital preparatory work to conduct a free and fair election. Because of COVID-19, the Board could not undertake voter registration and education, ballot preparation and distribution of election materials, organize election observers and train election workers, supervise nomination of candidates, monitor campaign activities, organize polling booths and other related essential functions.

It is manifest to all reasonable minds that the August elections cannot proceed with the COVID-19 crisis upending the country’s social, economic and political system. It is foolhardy,  downright reckless and dangerous to even suggest that full-scale election campaigns and electoral preparations can go on given the great uncertainties in the spread of COVID19 in Ethiopia. It is because of the deep uncertainties in the burgeoning COVID-19 crisis, the need to devote all available material and human resources to its prevention, treatment and mitigation, the necessity to deal effectively with the social and economic dislocations caused by the crisis and ultimately to ensure a free and fair election that can withstand international standards and scrutiny that the election must be postponed for a reasonable period of time or until the pandemic threat is declared minimal for normal processes to continue.

Unfortunately, the constitutional timetable cannot be met because of the force majeure of COVID-19. To proceed with the August election would be playing Russian roulette on the heads of 110 million Ethiopian with a fully loaded gun. Untold numbers of people could die and the resulting impact on society would be catastrophic.

The question is not whether a state of emergency can be declared to postpone the August 2020 election. The question is how best to postpone the election with public dialogue that maximizes accountability, transparency, inclusivity and collective concern for the public good.

The constitutional matrix for postponement of the August 2020 election

Mamo Mehretu has summarized the various suggested options along four dimensions: 1) The current government stays with a limited mandate as “caretaker” after the dissolution of parliament; 2) The current government extends term through a state of emergency and enjoys regular full mandate; 3) Clarification can be obtained through a constitutional amendment; and 4) The question could be referred to the House of Federation’s Council of Constitutional Inquiry, for constitutional interpretation and final determination. Ethiopian legal experts have studied the issues and made their recommendations.

Transitional government?

First, let me dispose of two arguments that claim there are no constitutional options to postpone the election. Proponents argue the only solution is political and insist on the formation of a “transitional government.” Second, TPLF leaders have proclaimed they can organize and run their own election in Tigray region “because there will not be a legitimate government after September 2020” when the current five-year term ends for the current parliament.

In August 1991, I wrote a commentary on the TPLF’s proposals for a “transitional government reflecting the differences of opinion, interests and aspirations of the peoples of the country.” The late TPLF leader Meles Zenawi said Ethiopia’s problems stemmed from “denial of democratic rights” and pronounced the end of an “unjust system that relegated the people to the status of second-class citizens in their own country.” The TPLF “transitional government” led to a 27-year TPLF dictatorship in Ethiopia.

In 2015, I argued Ethiopia needs a “a successful transition from dictatorship to constitutional democracy. Ethiopians need to practice the arts of civil discourse and negotiations. As difficult and embarrassing as it is to admit, many Ethiopian elites on all sides seem to suffer from a culture of inflexibility and zero-sum gamesmanship.” In other words, those who clamored for a transitional government in 2015 and those clamoring for it today cannot even sit together and have a conversation on soccer let alone dialogue meaningfully over the weighty issue of forming a transitional government. None of the “leaders” publicly urging formation of a transitional government today have any credibility and are known for their dishonesty, duplicity and mendacity.

A “transitional government” for six months until a new election can be held is absurd and nonsensical.

Manifestly, the proponents of the formation of a transitional government are naïve, ignorant, benighted or all three. Transitional governments are not formed in a day or even a month. They are extraordinarily difficult and often futile exercises. There are many preparatory undertakings that must precede even before the parties to form such a government are brought together for discussion. Independent third-party intermediators must be established. Contentious agenda items must be negotiated. Terms of power sharing must be drafted and circulated. Contending groups and leaders must be selected using criteria likely to be contentious. Deadlines and timetables must be set and other logistical arrangements must be made.

Talk of a transitional government is a red herring, an irrelevant topic introduced to divert public attention.

The proponents of a transitional government in Ethiopia should carefully study the experience of South Sudan.

In 2015, leaders of contending factions in South Sudan signed an agreement to create a transitional government, which did not even last until the ink on the agreement dried. Because of the failure to implement that agreement, hundreds of thousands of innocent South Sudanese died in factional violence and massive human rights violations were committed by both sides.

In 2019, pressured by the U.N and the U.S., the South Sudanese leaders again agreed to form a transitional unity government to end a five-year civil war.

It was not until February 2020, barely two months ago, that the South Sudanese were able to implement a transitional government agreement. How long that will last is anybody’s guess.

The proposal for a transitional government for Ethiopia until the next election, following postponement of the August 2020, is an invitation to anarchy, disorder, lawlessness and mobocracy.

Those who are howling for a transitional government in lieu of postponement of the August 2020 election are either willfully ignorant, think they can steal their way into power in the chaos of a transitional government or both. Truth be told, what these “leaders” want is not a transitional government. They want to create chaos in government so that they can transition themselves into power.

The TPLF’s plans for an illegal regional election

The TPLF’s proclamation that they will proceed to have elections in August 2020 in complete disregard of the mandate in Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution shows the utter hypocrisy and abysmal duplicity that is coded in their DNA. Article 102 provides, “There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies.”

The TPLF has always been a fair-weather friend of the Ethiopian Constitution. They will pontificate and defend the Constitution when it suits their purposes and throw it away like a dirty rag when they are held to account under it.

The TPLF Central Committee Official Statement on the Occasion of the 45th Anniversary in February 2020, barely two months ago, proclaimed:

Institutions and institutionalism are being destroyed. Reversal of the country’s achievements accompanied by monstrous violations and actions in both the economic and the political fronts are prevalent. The Constitution, which is the only reliable savior of the country, is violated and rule of law is endangered…The continuity of the country is guaranteed only when the Constitution and the federal system of governance are respected. Thus, we assure you that TPLF will work with you in strengthening and scaling up the struggle you have already begun to save the Constitution and the multinational federal system.” (Boldface added.)

In May 2020, the TPLF is caught red handed destroying institutions and institutionalism –indeed, the most important institution of democratic election – established under Article 102.  When the TPLF invokes the Constitution to suit its purposes it is “the only reliable savior of the country.” When it does not, it is not worth the paper it is written on.

The proclamations of the TPLF merchants of lies, deceit and duplicity remind me of lines from Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice:

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!

So, the TPLF Princes of Darkness can cite the Constitution for their own purposes with a smiling cheek!

In 2006, I wrote a commentary severely criticizing the TPLF regime for its failure to respect its constitution in the treatment of the Kinijit Party defendants and others. One of the charges against those defendants was violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”). Suffice it to say that the TPLF proclamation to hold a regional election in Tigray in violation of Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution and a flagrant violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”).

I am not surprised by the TPLF’s threat to breach the Constitution for two reasons. First, since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

Second, the TPLF was established for the single purpose of creating a “Tigray State”. In its Manifesto, the TPLF declared its mission is to create an independent Tigray State. The TPLF claimed Tigray was invaded by (Emperor) Atse Menelik and became an Amhara colony.  When the TPLF was in power, its core strategy was to systematically cleanse Ethiopian national identity, history and consciousness. It is a fact that the TPLF has NEVER repudiated its Manifesto.

In the 1990s, the late Meles Zenawi  was fond of saying that without his guiding hand and TPLF leadership, Ethiopia will go the way of Yugoslavia. Balkanization was Meles’ dream for Ethiopia. It is the TPTLF’s dream today. For a quarter of a century, the TPLF toiled day and night to carve up and chop up Ethiopia to facilitate and prolong their rule.

Having failed to dismember Ethiopia, the TPLF now prepares to dismember Tigray from Ethiopia by holding an illegal election. (Aya jibo, satamehagne bilagn.) 

No one should be surprised. The TPLF leaders are experts in holding fake elections. If they do hold their illegal elections, that is all it will be. Illegal. Unconstitutional and fake.

If the TPLF is conducting its illegal election by contriving a so-called constitutional crisis to implement their dream of a “Tigray State” foretold in their Manifesto., they will fail! 

We must be clear about the constitutional issues at hand

The constitutional question on the delay and postponement of the August 2020 election arises from an apparent lack of clarity in Article 58 (3) of the Ethiopian Constitution which mandates, “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”  Unfortunately, Article 58 does not expressly anticipate postponement or delay of elections or provide for extraordinary circumstances that could prevent an election as prescribed in the timetable.

The current term of parliament expires by the end of September 2020, which means under Article 58 (3), the election must take place by the end of August. The problem is such an election cannot be held within the constitutionally prescribed time frame because of the COVID-19 crisis.

The question is what constitutional mechanism are available to address the apparent lack of express language authorizing postponement or delay of an election under Article 58?

The experience in American constitutional jurisprudence should prove instructive in this regard.

The U.S. Constitution contains 4,543 words, including the signatures and with the 27 amendments comes to a total of 7,591. The Constitution “phrasing is broad and the limitations of its provisions are not clearly marked. Its majestic generalities and ennobling pronouncements are both luminous and obscure. This ambiguity of course calls forth interpretation, the interaction of reader and text…”

The 19th century British Prime Minister William Gladstone said, “The American Constitution is, so far as I can see, the most wonderful work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.” I agree and am very proud to have had the privilege to teach, practice and defend it in the highest state and federal courts of the United States.

In contrast, the Ethiopian Constitution barely three decades-old and contains 13,625 words by my count. It needs much refinement and careful redrafting.

The 1787 U.S. Constitution does not designate a branch of government to definitively resolve constitutional questions and issues. Article III which creates the judicial branch does not grant the Supreme Court the express power to review the constitution and render a definitive interpretation.

In 1803, in Marbury v. Madison, arguably the single most important case in American legal history, the U.S. Supreme Court case established the principle of judicial review. Justice John Marshall declared it was the exclusive duty and responsibility of the judicial branch to interpret and apply the language of the Constitution. “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is,” including the supreme law of the land. With that case, Marshall managed to establish the power of the court as the ultimate arbiter of the Constitution. The U.S. Constitution has been developed through interpretation and re-interpretationby the courts.

Unlike the U.S. Constitution, the Ethiopian Constitution clearly delegates the ultimate power of constitutional interpretation to the House of Federation with investigative powers granted to Council of Constitutional Inquiry. To borrow from Marbury v. Madison, “It is emphatically the province and duty of the House of Federation to say what the constitutional law is and is not.” Indeed, the House of Federation over the past decades has been engaged in “investigating questions of constitutional interpretation from various individuals and sections of the society.”

Article 62 (1) provides, “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 83 (1) “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1) “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.”

Therefore, there is no question that the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry have the power to review the issue of delay or postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 58 and render a final determination.

The task of the Council of Constitutional Inquiry are spelled out in Article 84(1) of the Constitution (which empowers the Council to “investigate constitutional disputes”)  and Proclamation 798/2013. The Council is established as an independent body (Art. 15) consisting of the President and Vice President  of the Federal Supreme Court as chair and vice chair respectively, six legal experts of high standing  appointed by the President of the Republic on recommendation by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, and three persons designated by the House of the Federation from among its members.

Under Article 3 of Proclamation 798, the Council has the power to consider and review for constitutionality “any law or customary practice or decision of government organ or decision of government official” submit its recommendation to the House of the Federation.” Under Article 9, the Council has the power to compel “pertinent institutions or professionals, to appear before it and give opinions.”

The House of Federation and the Council are expected to review issues before them fairly and impartially and with fidelity to the principles of constitutionalism, fairness, equity and justice.

While I am not presumptuous enough to tell the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry on how to perform their constitutional responsibilities, I would like to share my experience as a teacher and practitioner of American constitutional law for over three decades. Indeed, I have been privileged to spar in and out of court with some of the highest jurists and academics in America on constitutional interpretation. I trust the Federation and Council will consider my views as part of their deliberation.

In performing constitutional review, I believe the House of Federation must be guided by two questions:

First, in the absence of express language authorizing delay or postponement of an election under Article 54, does a force majeure epidemic recognized under Proclamation 3/2020 provide a necessary and sufficient condition for postponement under Article 93 (a)?

Second, is there an independent constitutional basis to postpone the August 2020 election based exclusively on Article 93 (a)?

The first question requires the House of Federation to interpret Article 54 and determine whether postponement can be obtained consistent with the language and spirit of that Article.

First, let me state that Ethiopia, unlike the United States, does not have a well-established tradition of constitutional interpretation. The U.S. has a rich constitutional history that spans well over two centuries. There are hundreds of thousands of constitutional appellate decisions that serve as precedent and countless numbers of academic and scholarly treatises and critiques on the constitution and how it should be interpreted. Ethiopia does not have the benefit of a well-developed constitutional jurisprudence and scholarship.

In the absence of guiding judicial precedents, doctrines, standards and tests to interpret and fix the meaning of constitutional language, the House of Federation and Council should follow an approach/principle employed widely by American jurists called “Ockham’s razor”, which prescribes the correct answer is often the simplest one. In other words, in their task of constitutional interpretation, the Federation and Council should not waste time engaging in academic and scholastic analysis and debates and be distracted by inconsequential political rhetoric squandering their energies. Rather, their aim should be provide a simple direct answer based on an ordinary understanding of language found in Article 58 and related provisions of the Constitution and render a decision based on reasonable explanations.

In my view, the House of Federation should begin its constitutional analysis NOT by simply focusing on Article 58 but rather by undertaking a structural interpretation of Article 58 within the bundle of constitutional provisions dealing with elections, including Articles 38(1)(c); 38(3); 54 (1), 58(3) and 102(1) (relevant constitutional provision are excerpted at the end of this commentary), the totality of the structure of the constitution and the history of the electoral process since the promulgation of the Constitution in 1995.

The texts of Article 54(1), 58 (3) and 102(1) are clear on the constitutional mandate of ensuring election of members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives for a term of five years in a free and fair elections and for the National Election Board to be the sole organizer and arbiter of such an election. The texts of Article 38 (1)(c) and (3) are equally clear in underscoring the necessity of having elections that “guarantee the free expression of the will of the electors” and that such elections “be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

The seminal question within the bundle of these provisions is why the drafters of the Constitution omitted contingency language in the event an election could not be held as mandated in Article 58(3). Were the drafters simply unaware of a possibility that could lead to a postponement of an election? Did they intentionally omit such language? Did they intend to create chaos and anarchy by leaving out a contingency clause?

A fair and reasonable reading of Article 58(3) shows that the language therein was intended to be an ironclad constitutional guarantee that elections will take place as prescribed, and not to preclude delay or postponement under extraordinary circumstances. Article 58 did not provide qualificatory language for postponement or delays because the drafters had already anticipated and provided for such extraordinary circumstances under Article 93, which specifically include external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order, a natural disaster, or an epidemic. For instance, there could be no election if the country is under external invasion. The outcome is the same if the country is facing a pandemic of global proportions.

One of the principal purpose of constitutional interpretation is to harmonize the meaning of constitutional language and to illuminate obscure implications locked in words and reconcile linguistic omissions with intended constitutional purposes to produce fair and reasonable outcomes, and in extreme cases to sever language that is manifestly repugnant to the scheme of the constitution.

The House of Federal and Council of Constitutional Inquiry should consider the constitutional scheme evident in Articles 38, 54, 58 and 102 and obtain a result that harmonizes these provisions in rendering their judgment.

Alternative I- Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 93

In my constitutional analysis, the critical issue is not the simple fact of meeting a designated constitutional deadline for an election but most importantly the fact of ensuring elections that are held are free and fair. It is pointless to have an election on a particular date if it is not free and fair.

Since 1991, Ethiopia has had elections for the purpose of having elections but none of them were free and fair. For the TPLF elections were nothing more than ritualistic practices and not a process by which the people elected their leaders freely and fairly. Indeed, for the TPLF elections were political theater staged for the benefit of donors and loaners as I argued in my 2009 commentary. Before an election, the TPLF created a fanfare, snagged millions of dollars in aid to conduct the elections and on election day declared total victory. I called elections under the TPLF regime “elektions”, that is fake elections.

In 2011, Seeye Abraha, one of the founders of the TPLF wrote, “The most incredible fact about the May 2010 Ethiopian election is not that the ruling Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) won; that was foreordained.”

A foreordained election is not much of an election. It is political drama.

In a country where there are over 80 political parties, in 2010, the TPLF regime claimed to have won 99.6 percent of the seats in parliament in 2010.

In 2015, the TPLF claimed it had won 100 percent.

Neither the 2010 nor 2015 elections could be called free and fair by any reasonable standard but they were held on the constitutionally prescribed date.

An election that is not free and fair is no election at all. It is a travesty of election, a monumental disregard of the democratic right to self-government.

Whether or not the August 2020 election should be postponed should pivot on a single question: Given the COVID-19 crisis, is it possible to have a free and fair election in August 2020?

For me, elections under the Ethiopian Constitution is not about having a mechanical process of selecting candidates on a prescribed date. It is about ONE and only ONE thing: Having a free and fair election!

While ignorant demagogues and political junkies bandy the phrase “free and fair election” like expletives, it is rooted in universally accepted principles and practices.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union which represents 179 parliaments, including Ethiopia’s, has published standards for free and fair election which include establishment of 1) procedures and criteria for voter registration, initiation or facilitation of national programs of civic education on election procedures and issues; 2) neutral, impartial mechanism for the management of elections; recruitment and training of election officials and operatives; 3) procedures to ensure the integrity of the ballot and institution of  measures to prevent voting fraud, establishment of mechanisms to ensure the integrity of the vote counting process, 4) mechanisms to ensure freedom of movement, assembly, association and expression for all contenders, particularly in the context of political rallies and meetings and creating conditions that will ensure parties and candidates are free to communicate their views to the electorate and 5) updating of electoral rolls and balloting procedures, and monitoring of performance under election Code of Conduct, among others.

The African Union Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa sets similar standards for free and fair election. Under Section III are listed numerous factors that must exist to ensure a free and fair election including: compilation of voters’ registers, establishment of national electoral bodies staffed by qualified personnel, set up of safeguards ensuring freedom of movement, assembly, association, expression, and campaigning, promote civic and voters’ education on the democratic principles and values in close cooperation with the civil society groups, implementation of measures to prevent the perpetration of fraud, rigging or any other illegal practices throughout the whole electoral process, ensure the availability of adequate logistics and resources for carrying out democratic elections and provision of adequate security to all parties participating in elections as well as accrediting national and/other observers/monitors.

These internationally recognized conditions for a free and fair election simply cannot be met today or in August 2020 as unequivocally stated by the head of  the National Election Board because of the COVID-19 crisis.

What constitutional options are available to ensure that a free and fair election is held?

Since the reason precluding a free and fair election in August 2020 is COVID-19 and since COVID-19 is constitutionally recognized as creating a state of emergency in Proclamation 3/2020, it follows that an already recognized emergency under Article 93 is a constitutionally sufficient condition to postpone the election by a declaration of a state of emergency.

The constitutional framework for Proclamation 3/2020 include Article 77(10) (“The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”) and Article 93 which provides:

  1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency… [in the event of] … an epidemic….
  2. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration… [and when not in session it]  shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
  3. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months [and extended]… by a two-thirds majority vote…every four months successively
  4. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall… have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and subArticles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts [with the duty of]…mak[ing] public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest… [ensure] no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane… [and] (c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government has the plenary constitutional power to declare a state of emergency, in much the same way as it did in Proclamation 3/2020 and postpone the election for the constitutionally mandated period of six months.

A Proclamation to postpone the August 2020 election should be crafted in the same way as Proclamation 3/2020.

Alternative II: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 60: Dissolution of Parliament  

The Prime Minister has plenary powers to dissolve parliament before the expiry of its term.  The Prime Minister is required to consult and obtain the consent of Parliament but ultimately the power to dissolve parliament is delegated to the office of the prime minister. The post-dissolution government will serve as a “caretaker” government.

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3) provides, “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5) provides, “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Dissolution of parliament is not a viable alternative. Indeed, it is recipe for anarchy and chaos. The post-dissolution government is mandated to play the role of “care taker” which means it is limited in its scope of action. The Prime Minster and the Council of Ministers will be limited to “essential business”. They cannot undertake any new policy initiatives. They cannot make new appointments. They cannot enter into international agreements.

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is facing an existential threat unprecedented in living memory?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when hundreds of thousands, and possible more, Ethiopians are facing a death sentence at the hands of COVID-19?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is in the grips of COVID-19, Egypt is saber-rattling and beating the drums of war against Ethiopia if Ethiopia should begin to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam in July 2020?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when there are those proclaiming to hold their own elections in violation of Article 104 of the Constitution and de facto create their own state?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when the world’s leading economists are predicting COVID-19 will exact “a heavy toll on the Ethiopian economy”?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when so-called leaders are stoking the flames of ethnic and religious division so that they can grab power?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is rising as a model of democracy, rule of law and human rights in Africa and the rest of the world?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia needs hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and aid to fight COVID-19 but will not have a government capable of concluding international agreements. The IMF gave Ethiopia over USD 400 million because it was impressed by the approach and commitment of the government of PM Abiy Ahmed in the COVID-19 crisis. The IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted, “I commend the swift and decisive response by @AbiyAhmedAli  and #Ethiopia to mitigate the impact of #COVID19.”

PM Abiy will not be able to deal with the IMF, the Wold Bank or any other government or agency if he is the head of a caretaker government!

For lack of a more appropriate phrase fit for polite company to describe my reactions to a dissolved parliament followed by a caretaker government, I will simply say, Bah! Humbug!

Alternative III: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 104 – Amending the Constitution

Article 104 provides for a constitutional amendment: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

According to one legal commentator, the Ethiopian Constitution has been “amended twice in the past twenty years.” Article 98 was “amended so as to change the spirit of concurrent power of taxation into revenue sharing.” Article 103(5) was amended “to extend the period for conducting national population census to more than 10 years.” This commentator cites authority for the proposition that the “Ethiopian Constitution is silent on defining the bodies having the power to initiate constitutional amendments.” The commentator argues “the constitutional framers [] wished to give the [amendment] power to the House of Peoples’ Representatives, House of Federation and State Councils.” The commentator “conclude[s] in Ethiopia, the HPR, the HoF and State Councils have the power to initiate constitutional amendments” and presentation of the final “‘submi[ssion] [of the amendment] to the general public for discussion and decision”. It “is not clear whether it denotes referendum or not.”

The principle of Ockham’s razon should apply here. There is no need to seek out complex and convoluted solutions when direct and constitutionally sound solutions are available. If indeed a referendum is required for ratification of a constitutional amendment under Article 104 in which a direct and universal vote is required, one might as well have the August 2020 election in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis. If the August 2020 election could not be held because of COVID-19, by the same token no referendum on a constitutional amendment could also held.

The bottom line

The bottom line is that elections are created for people. Those who insist on an election in August 2020 believe people are created for elections.

The choice is simple. Saving Ethiopian lives against having an election on a particular date and risk untold numbers of deaths. Elections make sense when people are alive. Those who try to make political hay out of the postponement of the August election have no regard for the lives of the people they claim to protect and represent. They are only interested in grabbing power at all costs. They will continue to run around threatening violence if the election is postponed and claim there will be no legitimate government after September 2020. But they will find out that when push comes to shove, the velvet gloves will be taken off. They may see this as their last opportunity to sneak themselves into power. They will fail in their evil plans because the people of Ethiopia will reject them totally.

Regardless, the alpha and omega constitutional question in the current debate over postponing the August 2019 elections is whether it is possible, given the COVID-19 crisis, to hold a free and fair election, not the mechanical process of electing candidates to office. If an election could be held on the scheduled date but it cannot be free and fair, it will amount to nothing more than an exercise in futility and a gross abuse of the people’s right to democratic self-rule.

To be continued…

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Relevant Constitutional Provisions:

Article 38 (1) (c): “Every Ethiopian national has the right to vote and to be elected at periodic elections to any office at any level of government; elections shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors.”

Article 38 (3): “Elections to positions of responsibility within any of the organizations referred to under sub-Article 2 of this Article shall be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

Article 5: “The Federal government has the power to declare and to lift national state of emergency and states of emergencies limited to certain parts of the country.”

Article 54 (1): “Article Members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected by the People for a term of five years on the basis of universal suffrage and by direct, free and fair elections held by secret ballot.”

55 (8): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives in conformity with Article 93 of the Constitution it shall declare a state of emergency; it shall consider and resolve on a decree of a state of emergency declared by the executive.”

Article 58 (3): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3): “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5): “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Article 62 (1): “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 77 (10): “The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval’ by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”

Article 83 (1): “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1): “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.  (2) 2. Where any Federal or State law is contested as being unconstitutional and such a dispute is submitted to it by any court or interested party, the Council shall consider the matter…

Article 87: “The armed forces shall protect the sovereignty of the country and carry out any responsibilities as may be assigned to them under any state of emergency declared in accordance with the Constitution.”

Article 93: 1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency should an external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order and which cannot be controlled by the regular law enforcement agencies and personnel, a natural disaster, or an epidemic occur.

  1. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration. (b) Subject to the required vote of approval set out in (a) of this sub-Article, the decree declaring a state of emergency when the House of peoples’ Representatives is not in session shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
  2. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months. The House of Peoples’ Representatives may, by a two-thirds majority vote, allow the state of emergency proclamation to be renewed every four months successively
  3. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall, in accordance with regulations it issues, have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and sub Articles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts.

  1. The State of Emergency Inquiry Board shall have the following powers and responsibilities:

(a) To make public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest.

(b) To inspect and follow up that no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane.

(c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

(d) To ensure the prosecution of perpetrators of inhumane acts.

(e) To submit its views to the House of Peoples’ Representatives on a request to extend the duration of the state of emergency.

Article 102 (1) (2): “1. There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies. 2. Members of the Board shall be appointed by the House of Peoples’ Representatives upon recommendation of the Prime Minister.”

Article 104: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

 

The post Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures: The Necessity of Postponing the August 29, 2020 Federal Parliamentary/Regional Elections in Ethiopia (Part II) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

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