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Addis Standard’s current editorial –what gives?

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By Abegaz Wondimu

In a scathing editorial written only two days after Abiy received his Nobel Peace Prize for 2019, Addis Standard  decried that ‘ the award can best be describe(sic) as a bitter sweet moment. On one hand it is a reminder of the short lived period when popular protests won and ushered in a new Prime Minister …But on the other hand it is a reminder of the uncertain and confused political state Ethiopia is in today

One wonders if ‘the staff and management of Addis Standard ‘ who heartily congratulated  Abiy on being awarded the Peace Prize are the same people who wrote this editorial, or a ghost/guest writer was recruited for this effort.

The fundamental error of the editors of Addis Standard lies in the fact that they are believers of the false narrative, that claims that the popular protests are the ones that ushered in Abiy, hence their disappointment in him not fulfilling the agenda of the popular protesters, and partnering with claimants who believe they’ve ushered in this new era in Ethiopia.

Surely, popular, peaceful struggles conducted by Ethiopian Moslems for over seven years combined with latterly heightened popular protests in Oromia, Amhara and Konso regions, not to speak of the 2005 Elections and its aftermath, shook the ruling EPRDF to its foundations. These occurrences coupled with the misrule and growing dysfunction within the EPRDF created a favorable atmosphere for reform minded elements within to come to the forefront, culminating in the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister.

At the end of the day, what transpired is a change of leadership within the ruling EPRDF, and nothing else, and Abiy’s eighteen months in office are to be judged within this context.

Seen from this perspective, it becomes evident that there is a sea change between the EPRDF of the past and the one that has been led by Abiy. When it comes to the bold measures Abiy took in opening up the political space and initiation of an overall liberalization as well as fruitful engagement with our neighbors, and most importantly with Eritrea, we can not but give thumbs up to his administration.

And it is these bold initiatives that Abiy took in regards to Eritrea and some of the reforms he introduced in Ethiopia that convinced the Nobel Committee to award him with the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

However, if we are to believe the editors of Addis Standard, not only are ‘both the peace process with Eritrea and political reforms within Ethiopia are facing serious challenges” but this is so “due in large part to his own inability and/or unwillingness to follow through, institutionalize and consolidate the gains achieved in the first few months of his time in office.”

Putting the editors’ claim of Abiy’s personal inability or unwillingness aside it will be instructive to observe what is on the ground to see how the hyperbolic assertions in the editorial are devoid of facts.

The case of rapprochement with Eritrea.

The Prime Minister in his first address to the nation from the parliament declared his intention to make peace with Eritrea after what he said were a wasted twenty years of no war no peace that was not beneficial to both nations and was in fact a case of squandered opportunities.

On what basis this declaration of intent for a peaceful reconciliation with Eritrea could be understood as “PM Abiy’s call for peace kicked off by excluding a key stakeholder, the Tigrean political elites’ is an explanation the editors of Addis Standard have to make.

The editors further claim that “Abiy’s subsequent call for the peace talks made a deliberate attempt to sidestep the TPLF.” Forgetting maybe that in one of the Eritrean leader’s visit the head of TPLF had actually accompanied him! In the end though it has been my understanding, and I dare say of most people, that the rapprochement was/is between two countries and not the Tigray killil and Eritrea, and this complaint is meritless.

In as much as TPLF was part of the ruling governing body in the country and as such a partner of the negotiation through its representation in the EPRDF Executive Committee, of which Abiy is the Chairman and the PM, the claim of sidestepping becomes a non-issue, unless and otherwise the editors believe a special privilege needs to be accorded to TPLF.

The editors of Addis Standard also make a bold claim ‘actual demilitarization of the contested areas’ did not occur and further claim that ‘…hundreds, perhaps thousands, of soldiers and heavy artillery equipment stationed in Badme.’

Based on all available evidence this claim is untrue. If anything, there was an attempt by ‘TPLF militia’ to hinder the withdrawal of heavy equipment and personnel, claiming that the withdrawal will create a military vacuum and  create vulnerability in the border areas, that required the assurances of military commanders to ease the tension and for the organized withdrawal to occur.

As for the border closures the claim that ‘…things have returned where PM Abiy started: all the four entry points in the border which were briefly opened have now been closed again…’ is a bit misleading.

It is true that the euphoric exuberance exhibited during the first couple of months and the unregulated movement of goods and people to and from the border regions does not exist, even if as an observer puts it  ‘local people still cross the border and informally also some goods make their way, but in much smaller quantities.’

However, after the initial period what brought about the closure was not a decision made by Abiy or the Ethiopian government. According to an African Confidential Report, this was brought about because of what it termed as ‘…unregulated movement together with non-existent rules of economic activities and unregulated exchange rates of Ethiopian Birr and Eritrean Nakfa, has led to the closure of all border crossings again since April 2019’

Ethiopian officials have acknowledged that they were preparing documents that will regulate future border arrangements as well as other bilateral issues, and once completed will have to be negotiated with their counterparts in Eritrea. Considering the damage caused by the ad hoc arrangements that were in place after 1991 and consequences that followed, going forward, deliberate and clear documents agreed upon by both countries is essential.

These technicalities aside, reality on the ground shows that the relationship between the two nations is robust. Air transport that started between the two capitals over a year ago is still ongoing, the Eritrean government recently finished resurfacing the road from Assab to the Ethiopian border, Assab port itself is getting a face-lift and Ethiopian Shipping line is transporting raw materials from Eritrea to their shipping destinations…etc and people to people contacts seem to be flourishing.

This being the case one wonders why the editors believe ‘progress is unlikely until after the TPLF is fully brought onboard…’ or the toxic claim ‘most importantly bringing the TPLF and the people of Tigray on board requires PM Abiy to normalize his relation with them first’.

This as if the people of Tigray are not all in when it comes to the normalization of relations between the two countries or that PM Abiy has a negative or abnormal relationship with the people of Tigray, which is utter nonsense.

It should not be lost on the editors that, whether or not the TPLF leadership enveloped with a bunker mentality and is hiding in Mekele after losing out in the internal struggle within EPRDF goes along with it or not, relationships between the two countries will be normalized, and in fact the people of Tigray, by virtue of geography will be the primary beneficiaries of the normalization.

If this editorial was coming from Weyn magazine, it might be understandable, but coming from an otherwise reputable newspaper makes one scratch their head to find the rational for these unsubstantiated and off the mark narratives.

Domestic politics

Here again, the editors of Addis Standard don’t seem to see the positive efforts with all their limitations undertaken, but rather want to focus on all the negatives and lament at the lack of consolidation of reforms and institutionalization of the same.

One doesn’t need to remind the editors that consolidation and institutionalization is a process and not something that can be accomplished overnight as if by decree.

For starters we know that the Charities and Societies Proclamation, the Anti terror Proclamation and the Media Law are being revised, a justice reform advisory council has been setup, several advisory bodies that will help consolidate the reforms have been established and are working, but maybe not fast enough. Above all the National Electoral Board has been totally revamped with the able lawyer Birtukan Mideksa at the helm, and the parliament this past August passed the Electoral Political Parties Bill.

But it is not the speed by which these efforts at consolidation and institutionalization that are taking place that seems to worry the editors, but basing themselves on the false narrative of how the change came about, they feel that it requires ‘…the convening broad-based consultations, negotiations and political bargain among the various competing elites roaming the political space in Ethiopia. PM Abiy was mandated and expected to lead and facilitate such initiatives…’ 

The editors of Addis Standard do not make it clear as to who ‘mandated’ Abiy or why he should be negotiating and bargaining with the roaming political elites.

As part of the opening up of the political space in the country, Abiy and his government invited all opposition groups and political parties residing abroad without any preconditions.

After their arrival, Abiy in his capacity as leader of EPRDF conducted a few consultative meetings with the Ethiopia based parties included, and all are free to conduct political activities. Some like the OLF have in fact created an umbrella organization that included the governing party in Oromia, while some have joined their forces with other existing parties. While others are whining that the law that requires at least 10,000 signatures if they are to contest as a national party is draconian, while still others conspire with the likes of TPLF to subvert  some of the reforms that have been actualized.

At a time when the Chairwoman of the National Electoral Board is announcing that elections will be held as scheduled and that preparations to make it free and peaceful is gearing up, and at a time when Abiy and his government are promising the same, and the International Community is providing great assistance to help in the preparation, one wonders why the editors of Addis Standard are painting a doomsday scenario and declaring’ As a result of mismanagement of this transition, there are substantial fears that the political space is fast closing, and hopes are fading away and taken over by fear and pessimism and possibilities of a post election violence

As for the self appointed roaming political elites in Ethiopia, since there is no short cut to power and the only game in town is by winning elections, the prudent advice that one can give them is to get busy organizing and getting ready for the upcoming elections, and based on the result to see if they have the mandate to rule or to bargain with whomever wins the election.

Having depicted Abiy and his administration as failing on all fronts, the editors tell us that ‘this is not the time to abandon him …all political actors and the Ethiopian public in general should continue to give him the benefit of the doubt.’

I guess this is what is called ገድሎ ማዳን!

Abegaz Wondimu

The post Addis Standard’s current editorial –what gives? appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.


The Ethiopians are Zionism’s great success

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Opinion: Almost three decades after Operation Solomon brought thousands of Ethiopian Jews to Israel, the schism between the community and the rest of Israeli society still exists, but we must revel in all that we have achieved in just 28 years

Danny Adeno Abebe
Twenty-eight years have passed since the State of Israel carried out Operation Solomon, one of the most daring operations in the history of Zionism.
Ynet’s sister publication Yedioth Ahronoth festively quoted the book of Exodus in its May 26, 1991, main headline – “On eagles’ wings”. The caption above it read “14,400 Ethiopian Jews were rescued in a brilliant operation”.

Ethiopian Jews on a plane en route to Israel, Operation Solomon, May 1991

Ethiopian Jews on a plane en route to Israel, Operation Solomon, May 1991
(Photo: Government Press Office)
The State of Israel used to be a small yet bold country that imposed an aerial curfew on another sovereign country to save its people. Israeli society was on cloud nine.
An entire country shed tears in front of the touching images of a quick and determined rescue by IDF soldiers of the lost black brothers, as they were finally brought back home after a long exile.

"On eagle's wings" - Yedioth Ahronoth May 26, 1991

“On eagle’s wings” – Yedioth Ahronoth May 26, 1991
(Photo: Yedioth Ahronoth archive)
Over two and a half decades have passed since these exciting days and since the spectacular and captivating images of a Jewish soldier in uniform walking hand in hand with an elderly black Jewish woman, as he escorted her up the stairs of the Israel Air Force plane that had landed on Ethiopian soil to fulfill our forefathers’ dream.
There’s been a lot of water under the bridge since then and the Ethiopian community has experienced a great deal of racism, alienation and frustration due to their skin color.
Now those small children who were carried on IDF officers’ shoulders at Addis Ababa airport protest the disproportionate violence of the Israeli police against them, and the disrespectful and judgmental attitude based only on the color of their skin.
Some of these children became prisoners against their will; others became officers in the IDF, academics, doctors, engineers, journalists, judges and much, much more.
Recent protests have shown the cultural gap between the pure-hearted children of Operation Solomon, who were excited to move to Israel and feel like an integral part of the Israeli tribe, and those civilians who sat in front of the TV screen and shed tears of joy.

הפגנה יוצאי אתיופיה בעזריאלי

Demonstrators protest over-policing and violence against Ethiopian Jews
(Photo: Moshik Shema)
This gap still exists and even keeps on growing with time.
Twenty-eight years later, it’s time to try and mend the great schism and heal the immense pain between the Ethiopian Jewish community and the rest of Israeli society, before it also permeates my children’s generation like a severe metastatic social cancer, causing racism and alienation between the two sides that will ultimately lead to our demise, G-d forbid.
And despite all the above, the Ethiopian Aliyah, including Operation Solomon, has been and remains a tremendous success of Zionism.
We succeeded in narrowing a millennia-old gap in exile in just one generation.

The post The Ethiopians are Zionism’s great success appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

International Crisis Group: keeping Ethiopia’s transition on the rails

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REPORT from International Crisis Group

Nairobi/Addis Abeba/Brussels, 16 December 2019

What’s new? Clashes in October 2019 in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, left scores of people dead. They mark the latest explosion of ethnic strife that has killed hundreds and displaced millions across the country over the past year and half.

Why did it happen? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken important steps to move the country toward more open politics. But his efforts to dismantle the old order have weakened the Ethiopian state and given new energy to ethno-nationalism. Hostility among the leaders of Ethiopia’s most powerful regions has soared.

Why does it matter? Such tensions could derail Ethiopia’s transition. Meanwhile, reforms Abiy is making to the country’s powerful but factious ruling coalition anger opponents, who believe that they aim to undo Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system, and could push the political temperature still higher. Elections in May 2020 could be divisive and violent.

What should be done? Abiy should step up efforts to mend divisions within and among Ethiopia’s regions and push all parties to avoid stoking tensions around the elections. International partners should press Ethiopian leaders to curb incendiary rhetoric and offer increased aid to protect the country from economic shocks that could aggravate political problems.

Executive Summary

Ethiopia’s transition has stirred hope at home and abroad but also unleashed dangerous and divisive forces. As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has opened up the country’s politics, it has struggled to curb ethnic strife. Mass protests in late October in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, spiralled into bloodshed. Clashes over the past eighteen months have killed hundreds, displaced millions and fuelled tensions among leaders of Ethiopia’s most potent regions. Abiy’s remake of the ruling coalition, which has monopolised power for almost three decades, risks further deepening the divides ahead of the elections scheduled for May 2020. The premier and his allies should move cautiously with those reforms, step up efforts to cool tensions among Oromo factions and between Amhara and Tigray regional leaders, who are embroiled in an especially acrimonious dispute, and, if conditions deteriorate further, consider delaying next year’s vote. External actors should call on all Ethiopian leaders to temper incendiary rhetoric and offer increased financial aid for a multi-year transition.

First, the good news. Since becoming premier in early 2018, after more than three years of deadly anti-government protests, Prime Minister Abiy has taken a series of steps worthy of acclaim. He has embarked on an historic rapprochement with Eritrea. He has extended his predecessor Hailemariam Desalegn’s policies of releasing political prisoners and inviting home exiled dissidents and insurgents. He has appointed former activists to strengthen institutions like the electoral board and accelerated the reform of an indebted state-led economy. His actions have won him both domestic and foreign praise, culminating in the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. But Abiy’s moves to dismantle the old order have weakened the Ethiopian state. They have given new energy to the ethno-nationalism that was already resurgent during the mass unrest that brought him to power. Elections scheduled for May 2020 could turn violent, as candidates compete for votes from within their ethnic groups.

Four fault lines are especially perilous. The first cuts across Oromia, Abiy’s home state, where his rivals – and even some former allies – believe the premier should do more to advance the region’s interests. The second pits Oromo leaders against those of Amhara, Ethiopia’s second most populous state: they are at loggerheads over Oromia’s bid for greater influence, including over the capital Addis Ababa, which is multi-ethnic but surrounded by Oromia. The third relates to a bitter dispute between Amhara politicians and the formerly dominant Tigray minority that centres on two territories that the Amhara claim Tigray annexed in the early 1990s. The fourth involves Tigray leaders and Abiy’s government, with the former resenting the prime minister for what they perceive as his dismantling of a political system they constructed, and then dominated, and what they see as his lopsided targeting of Tigrayan leaders for past abuses. An uptick of attacks on churches and mosques across parts of the country suggests that rising interfaith tensions could add another layer of complexity.

Adding to tensions is an increasingly salient debate between supporters and opponents of the country’s ethnic federalist system, arguably Ethiopia’s main political battleground. The system, which was introduced in 1991 after the Tigray-led revolutionary government seized power, devolves authority to ethno-linguistically defined regions, while divvying up central power among those regions’ ruling parties. While support and opposition to the system is partly defined by who stands to win or lose from its dismantling, both sides marshal strong arguments. Proponents point to the bloody pre-1991 history of coercive central rule and argue that the system protects group rights in a diverse country formed through conquest and assimilation. Detractors – a significant, cross-ethnic constituency – argue that because the system structures the state along ethnic lines it undercuts national unity, fuels ethnic conflict and leaves minorities in regions dominated by major ethnic groups vulnerable. It is past time, they say, to turn the page on the ethnic politics that for too long have defined and divided the nation.

Prime Minister Abiy’s recent changes to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that has ruled for some three decades, play into this debate. Until late November, the EPRDF comprised ruling parties from Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions, as well as a fourth, the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ region. Already it was fraying, its dysfunction both reflecting and fuelling ethnic animosity. Abiy’s plan entails dissolving the four blocs and merging them, plus five parties that rule Ethiopia’s other regions, into a new party, the Prosperity Party. The premier aims to shore up national unity, strengthen his leadership and shift Ethiopia away from what many citizens see as a discredited system. His approach enjoys much support, including from Ethiopians who see it as a move away from ethnic politics. But it also risks further stressing a fragile state whose bureaucracy is entwined with the EPRDF from top to bottom. Tigray’s ruling party and Abiy’s Oromo rivals oppose the move, seeing it as a step toward ending ethnic federalism. Tigray leaders refuse to join the new party.

The prime minister has made laudable efforts to tread a middle ground and unite the country but faces acute dilemmas. Placating nationalists among his own Oromo, for example, would alienate other ethnic groups. Allowing Tigray to retain a say in national decision-making well above the region’s population share would frustrate other groups that resent its long rule at their expense. Moreover, while thus far Abiy has tried to keep on board both proponents and critics of ethnic federalism, his EPRDF merger and other centralising reforms move him more squarely into the camp of those opposing that system, meaning that he now needs to manage the fallout from those who fear its dismantling and the dilution of regions’ autonomy. At the same time, he cannot leave behind the strong constituency that wants to move away from ethnic politics and thus far has tended to give Abiy the benefit of the doubt. But the prime minister, his government and international partners can take some steps to lower the temperature:

  • Abiy should press Tigray and Amhara leaders to intensify talks aimed at mending their relations. He should continue discussions with dissenting Oromo ruling party colleagues and the Oromo opposition, aiming to ensure that they litigate differences at the ballot box rather than through violence. He should continue to facilitate talks between Oromo and Amhara leaders and thus ease tensions that are increasingly shaded by ethnicity and religion and feed a sense of ferment in mixed urban areas across the country, including in the capital.
  • The government might also make conciliatory gestures toward the Tigray, maybe even rethinking its prosecutions of Tigrayan former officials in favour of a broader transitional justice process. For their part, Tigray leaders should reconsider their rejection of the Administrative Boundaries and Identity Issues Commission, which was set up to resolve boundary disputes like that pitting Tigray against Amhara.
  • Abiy and his allies should move carefully with the EPRDF reform and seek to mitigate, as best as they can, fears that it heralds the end of ethnic federalism. They should make clear that any formal review of Ethiopia’s constitution that takes place down the road will involve not only the ruling party but also opposition factions and activists. An inclusive process along these lines would also serve the interests of ethnic federalism’s opponents, particularly among civil society, who would have a seat at the table.
  • The prime minister is set on May 2020 elections, fearing that delay would trigger questions about his government’s legitimacy. If the vote goes ahead as scheduled, he should convene a series of meetings involving key ruling and opposition parties, along with influential civil society representatives, well beforehand to discuss how to deter bloodshed before and after a ballot that he has promised will represent a break from the flawed elections of the past. But if risks of a divisive and violent election campaign increase, his government may have to seek support among all major parties for a postponement and some form of national dialogue aiming to resolve disputes over past abuses, power sharing, regional autonomy and territorial claims.
  • Ethiopia’s international partners should adopt a stance more in tune with worrying trends on the ground. They should express public support for the transition but lobby behind closed doors for a careful approach to remaking the EPRDF and for all Ethiopian leaders to temper provocative language as much as possible. They could also suggest an election delay if the political and security crises do not cool in the months ahead. A multi-year package of financial aid could help strengthen weak institutions, support an economy also undergoing structural reform and reduce discontent among a restive and youthful population during a period of change.

Ethiopia’s transition may not yet hang from a precipice; indeed, it is still a source of hope for many in Ethiopia and abroad. But signs are troubling enough to worry top and former officials. Among the most alarmist suggestions made by some observers is that the multinational federation could break apart as Yugoslavia did in the 1990s. This worry may be overstated, but Abiy nonetheless should err on the side of caution as he walks a tightrope of pushing through reforms while keeping powerful constituencies on board. He should redouble efforts to bring along all of Ethiopia’s peoples, facilitate further negotiations among sparring regional elites, take steps to ensure that the ruling party merger does not further destabilise the country and, for now, defer formal negotiations over Ethiopia’s constitution and the future of ethnic federalism.

I. Introduction

Between 23 and 26 October, mass
protests and ethnic strife left at least 86 people dead in Oromia, Prime Minister Abiy’s
home state and Ethiopia’s largest and most populous,
in which some 37 million people reside. The latest unrest, coming only four
months after rogue security forces assassinated the Ethiopian military’s chief of
staff and the president of Amhara state, cast in even sharper relief the
precariousness of the country’s mooted
transition to a more open and democratic order. In a widening arc of
flashpoints across Ethiopia, attackers, often propelled by ethno-nationalist forces, have killed hundreds over the
past year and triggered the displacement of 3.5 million.[1]
The wave of insecurity has set many Ethiopians on edge. Since coming to power
in April 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s changes have come at dizzying pace.
But they have also lifted the lid that Ethiopia’s previously strong, and often abusive, state security machine kept on
social tensions. Warning signs are starting to flash red.

This report examines the most
dangerous fault lines and explores options for dialling down tensions. It
builds upon Crisis Group’s previous work on Ethiopia’s transition, one of the most closely watched on the
continent.[2] It is
based on interviews with Ethiopian officials, activists, intellectuals and researchers as
well as African and Western diplomats. Research took place during July,
November and December 2019 in the capital Addis Ababa and Amhara, Tigray and
the Southern Nations states.

II. Trouble in Oromia

The most recent bout of turmoil began on October 23
after Jawar Mohammed, a prominent Oromo activist and media owner, accused the government on
Facebook of stripping him of his security detail in an attempt to facilitate
his assassination.[3] After the Facebook post,
hundreds of protesters gathered outside Jawar’s home in the capital to defend
him and thousands took to the streets across Oromia. Demonstrations in the
region in 2015-2018 had taken place mostly in rural areas; this time, protests shook some of Oromia’s multi-ethnic
towns and cities. They led to death and destruction as other groups rallied in response and confrontations
triggered violence. Security forces shot ten protesters dead, while
losing five from their own ranks.[4] Oromo youth groups, or Qeerroo, played a major role in the bloodshed, in
some cases instigating attacks against other groups, as well as fellow Oromos
deemed to display insufficient ethnic solidarity, and in other instances
retaliating after provocations.[5]

Jawar
is an influential but divisive figure who over the course of 2019 has become a vocal Abiy critic.[6]
For years, he ran the prominent Oromia Media Network from abroad and was among the dissidents whom the
government welcomed home in 2018. He has a large Oromo following,
reflecting his advocacy for greater influence for the community. Many Amhara
and other non-Oromo, however, hold him responsible for inciting Qeerroo to
attack minorities and destroy their property.

Jawar has long lobbied for greater Oromo heft in the
federal government and played a vital role in coordinating the protests that helped bring Abiy
to power. But his relations with the new prime minister, always uneasy, have
taken a turn for the worse, as he has
reproached Abiy for centralising power and for not doing enough for the
Oromo since taking office. The day before the Facebook post, on 22 October,
Abiy appeared to condemn Jawar in parliament when he cited irresponsible
actions by “foreign media owners”.[7]

The late October violence reflects an evolution of the
grievances that brought hundreds of thousands of Oromo into the streets in
anti-government protests that began in earnest in 2015. Then, demonstrators were
angered by the government’s abuses, corruption and failure to tackle rising
living costs, youth unemployment and other day-to-day concerns. Protests had
ethnic undertones, giving voice to the Oromo’s
longstanding opposition to the Tigray ruling party’s pre-eminence in the EPRDF
and federal security apparatus. Activists
drew from a narrative asserting that the Oromo were historically downtrodden, left without an equitable share of
federal power and represented by an Oromo ruling party – formerly the
Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO) and then, until its recent
dissolution, the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) – that was subservient to the
Tigray party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).[8]
Some concerns were more specific: Oromo activists opposed government plans to
develop areas on the outskirts of Addis Ababa, which the Oromia region
encircles, as portending further displacement of Oromo farmers to the benefit
of investors.

Although OPDO leaders faced the ire of Oromo protesters,
many party officials also backed the demonstrations, hoping to increase their power within
the EPRDF. They objected in particular to the Tigray ruling party’s equal vote
in the ruling coalition’s decision-making
bodies, despite the region’s smaller population, and to the Tigrayan
grip on the security sector, including national intelligence agencies and the
armed forces.[9]

Despite
euphoria among the Oromo at Abiy’s appointment, strife has continued in Oromia.[10]
Much has been linked to the August 2018 return of rebel Oromo Liberation Front
(OLF) leaders to Ethiopia.[11]
The week of their arrival saw Qeerroo youth groups
run riot through parts of the capital, including its outskirts in Oromia, in
some cases attacking people of other
ethnicities. While the OLF’s return appears to have been conditioned on its
participation in democratic politics, ODP officials accuse it of
continuing to foment armed rebellion.[12]
Since coming back to Ethiopia, the rebel movement, already fragmented, has split
again. Dawud Ibsa, who led the group in its Eritrean exile, is seeking deals
with Abiy’s party and other Oromo groups.[13]
Others, including some field commanders, are holding out, still skirmishing
with the military in western Oromia.[14]

Interfaith
tensions add another layer of complexity. During the recent unrest, Orthodox
Christian leaders reported mobs targeting their congregants and churches, while
demonstrators also attacked a mosque in Adama city, in central Oromia.[15]
The violence follows similar attacks on
places of worship over the past eighteen months.[16]

These
attacks led some to suspect that religious differences underlay much of the
unrest. Some Oromo nationalists portray the Orthodox Christian church as part
of the predominantly Amhara power structure
under the old imperial regime, which they accuse of suppressing their
identities and culture for centuries. Indeed, the targeting of Orthodox churches as a symbol of the old establishment is a
problem not limited to Oromia: protesters attacked churches in the
Somali region in August 2018 and in Southern Nations in July 2019. In turn,
Jawar’s opponents brand him as an Islamist. Jawar supported an overwhelmingly
peaceful civil resistance movement in 2011-2012 that rejected the government’s
interference in Muslim affairs, but no evidence supports the accusation thathe is pursuing an Islamist agenda.[17]
Responding to the October fighting, Abiy explicitly recognised its religious
dimension, but in a positive way, praising
“Muslims who protect churches from burning down and Christians who stand
guard to prevent mosques from burning down”.[18]

At
bottom, Oromo activists, like Jawar, and opposition groups including the OLF
have political and not religious goals: they want a share of federal power that
matches Oromia’s demographic weight and
protects their regional autonomy. They welcome the de facto influence
Abiy’s premiership delivers for the Oromo but distrust his political agenda.[19]
Some also want Afaan Oromo, the Oromo
mother tongue, to become
a working language of the federal government (at present, all central
government business is conducted inAmharic) and for the Oromia region to administer Addis Ababa.[20]
Several leaders in the Oromo ruling party, including Lemma Megersa, the influential defence minister and a former
close ally of Abiy, may even back the activists’ more assertive agenda.[21]

Opposition among
the Oromo puts Abiy in a bind. On one hand, many non-Oromo accuse Abiy of favouring
his own ethnic constituency, pointing to his alleged leniency in dealing with
Oromo abuses, Jawar’s provocations and the OLF’s insurgency.[22]
Forming an alliance with or adopting policies to mollify Oromo opponents could
pit Abiy against other groups in Ethiopia’s bitterly contested political
landscape. On the other hand, many Oromo appear ready to take to the streets to
protest what they see as Abiy’s failure to advance their interests, with
demonstrations frequently descending into violence. Moreover, the former rebel
movement, the OLF, though fractured, is still popular. An alliance among OLF
factions, Jawar and other Oromo opposition leaders, which is already taking
shape, could present Abiy’s ODP with serious electoral competition in Oromia,
particularly if it can pull away top ODP politicians like Lemma.[23]
The outbreak of communal strife following the 22 October incident at Jawar’s
residence demonstrates just how volatile Oromia’s politics are.

III.Widening Ethno-regional Fissures

The Oromia bloodshed follows other
incidents of violence across the country over the
past eighteen months. The four regions that have been run by the EPRDF’s member parties – Amhara, Tigray and Southern Nations,
as well as Oromia – face the gravest challenges, showing how the ruling
coalition’s travails lie at the core of Ethiopia’s
instability. As intra-EPRDF competition increases, ethno-nationalist forces within the four parties are ascendant, in some
cases propelled by hardline opposition and protest movements.[24]
Those forces have driven ethnic animosity, particularly among the Oromo, Amhara
and Tigray, as well as violence that since the beginning of 2018 has led a huge number of Ethiopians – some
3.5 million, more than in any other country in the world in 2018 – to
flee their homes.[25]

Trends in Amhara are as troubling as those in
Oromia. The state is the country’s second
largest, with a population of around 29 million, and was another locus of mass
unrest in the years leading up to Abiy’s rise to power.[26]
Some leaders within the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP) – at the time, the Amhara
National Democratic Movement – backed the protests, like their Oromo
counterparts, seeing them as an opportunity
to loosen the TPLF’s grip. Indeed, Abiy owes his premiership in part to a
tactical alliance between Oromo and Amhara leaders, who took advantage of the
growing realisation within the coalition that only genuine change could placate
protesters, outmanoeuvred the TPLF and appointed Abiy as EPRDF leader at the
coalition’s March 2018 Council meeting.[27]

As
in Oromia, protests in Amhara whipped up ethno-nationalist sentiment, now entrenched in the region’s political discourse. The
result is an increasingly salient narrative that presents ethnic
federalism as a TPLF-dominated project aimed at subjugating the region. True,
many ethnic federalism critics – including a large number of Amhara but also
many others – promote a pan-Ethiopian vision and portray ethnic federalism as
eroding national unity. They argue that it renders as second-class citizens
minorities in states delineated for dominant ethno-linguistic groups, not least
because they face barriers in pursuing government services and public office.
They contend that, by placing ethnicity at the heart of politics, the system
feeds ethnic conflict and may even sow the seeds of the state’s collapse.[28]
But much Amhara opposition to the system also has an ethno-nationalist and
anti-TPLF flavour. The transition has
spawned a new party focused on asserting Amhara rights, the National Movement of Amhara (NaMA), which presents itself as
a defender of Amhara, including those living outside the Amhara region.[29]

Pressure from that movement partly explains the
ADP’s ill-fated November 2018 appointment of Asaminew Tsige as regional
security chief. Asaminew, a strong opponent of the TPLF, was jailed in 2009 for
his role in a coup attempt and then pardoned
by the federal government in February 2018 as part of an amnesty by then-Prime
Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. By appointing him, the ADP hoped to boost its
popularity to the detriment of its ascendant ethno-nationalist Amhara
opposition. The move proved disastrous. On 22 June, Asaminew reportedly
directed the assassinations of Amhara leaders in the regional capital Bahir Dar
and Ethiopia’s military chief of staff, the Tigrayan General Seare Mekonnen, in
Addis Ababa, before himself being killed by security forces.[30]

During his short tenure, Asaminew stoked Amhara
nationalism. Heworsened the bad
blood between Amhara and Oromo by warning of impending Oromo domination.[31]
Already, the Amhara-Oromo alliance that brought Abiy to power was strained, with Amhara and others angered by an ODP statement
that the federal capital should be under Oromia’s control.[32]
They perceive the destruction in early 2019 by Oromia’s government of allegedly
illegal settlements, including many non-Oromo homes, on the capital’s outskirts as an
assertion of Oromo power.[33]
In July, the tens of thousands attending Asaminew’s funeral showed the
continued draw of Amhara nationalism, and thus the Amhara leadership’s narrow
space for compromise. The recent bloodletting
in Oromia, and Amhara-Oromo fighting at several universities, have sharpened
tensions.[34]
Attacks on Orthodox churches heighten concerns, flagged especially by the
National Movement for Amhara, about the safety of Amhara living in Oromia.
Mounting religious tensions risk edging a political dispute over Amhara-Oromo
federal power sharing into a sectarian contest.

Tigray
is another hotspot. The region’s ruling party, the TPLF, controls a northern
region representing only around 6 per cent of the country’s population but that
for years dominated the EPRDF and federal security apparatus and still enjoys
outsized influence in the armed forces.[35]
On arriving in office, Abiy replaced many TPLF ministers and security heads,
partly in response to widespread sentiment that the TPLF was to blame for years of repression and graft. The attorney
general, a senior member of Abiy’s
party, issued an arrest warrant against former national intelligence
chief Getachew Assefa, a TPLF politburo member, who is now in hiding.[36]
Articulating a widely held view, a senior
federal official says the government has found evidence of the TPLF fuelling conflict across Ethiopia over
the last eighteen months in order to destabilise the state.[37]

TPLF
officials reject this allegation and resent what they sense is an attempt to sideline the Tigray.[38]
They say Abiy’s government applies selective justice, most prominently
by failing to prosecute the many high-ranking non-Tigray officials who served
in past administrations and also stand accused of abuses. In their minds,
figures like Asaminew who had been released as part of a wide-ranging amnesty
were far more deserving of prosecution than TPLF leaders.[39]
TPLF leaders are also angry at the displacement of around 100,000 Tigrayans,
mostly from Amhara and Oromia regions, during and after the 2015-2018
anti-government protests.[40]

The
TPLF’s waning fortunes have not only fuelled Tigray anger at Abiy’s government
but also energised long-held Amhara claims over two territories, Welkait and
Raya, in Tigray region. Amhara leaders believe that the TPLF annexed those
territories in the early 1990s and then encouraged Tigrayans to move in,
altering their demographic makeup. Tigrayans argue that the two territories’
administration status should be decided on the basis of self-determination but
that only current residents – not those who have left over the past nearly
three decades – should have a say. The TPLF rejects
the mandate of the federal Administrative Boundaries and Identity Issues Commission, which Abiy set up in December
2018 to look into the Amhara claims and other territorial disputes.
Tigray leaders argue that the body is unconstitutional, as its mandate overlaps
with that of parliament’s upper chamber, though probably their fear is
primarily that it will rule in Amhara’s favour.[41]

The Amhara-Tigray
tensions could be the country’s most dangerous, as they have the potential to draw two powerful regions into a
conflict that could carry risks of fracturing the military.[42]
Warning signs continued to flash between Amhara and Tigray in October and
November 2019. Another fatal attack on Tigrayan militia by rebels from Amhara reportedly took place at the regional
border in the disputed area of Welkait.[43]
Renewed violence between Amhara security forces and militia comprising Qemant
people left tens dead; the Qemant are a minority in Amhara pursuing greater
autonomy but their Amhara opponents say they are TPLF-backed, a claim a military officer involved in pacifying the area
said there was no evidence to support.[44]
For their part, some TPLF officials claim that they have organised a standing
Tigray militia, to defend a “security fortress” in the northern province.[45]

Alongside the worrying signs, there is one positive development. Amhara
and Tigray’s leaders, encouraged by Abiy, have recently
been in contact. Senior Tigray officials express a desire to ratchet down
tensions: “We have to have a fraternal discussion”, one told Crisis Group.[46]
Those talks could set out a path toward resolving the territorial dispute.

A last
hotspot lies at the country’s opposite end, in the
diverse Southern Nations region, hitherto ruled by the fourth EPRDF party, the
fragmenting Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).[47]
There, ethnic groups have seized on the
political opening to call for enhanced autonomy. The largest, the Sidama,
pressed their constitutional right to hold a referendum on establishing their
own regional state.[48]
In July, as authorities missed the deadline for the vote, Sidama protesters
clashed with police and later attacked minorities. The government deployed
troops to contain the fighting, partly by using lethal force.[49]
When voting took place on 20 November, it
passed off peacefully and resoundingly favoured statehood. But if authorities fail to manage high Sidama
expectations about the pace of creating the new region and bring
economic benefits, there could be more unrest.[50]
The government also faces an uphill battle to dissuade other Southern Nations
groups from pressing statehood claims. Should the regional state architecture
fracture, they could struggle violently for power and resources.

IV. Abiy’s Merger Plan and Ethnic Federalism

Prime Minister Abiy’s moves to expand and unify the
ruling EPRDF coalition, motivated partly by his desire to bolster national
unity, instead risk fuelling the centrifugal forces pulling at the country’s
ethnic fabric. On 16 November and 21 November, the coalition’s Executive Committee
and then its Council approved merging the four ruling coalition parties, plus the five parties that control the Afar,
Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, Harari and Somali regions and that are
allied to, but are not part of, that coalition, into a single unified party,
the Prosperity Party. The reforms, which several parties’ general assemblies
also endorsed, aim to overhaul a system that Abiy and many other Ethiopians see
as the root of many of the country’s challenges.[51]

The
new Prosperity Party would centralise decision-making, rebalancing authority
between its executive organs and its regional branches. The upshot would be
that organs at the central level would
exercise greater power than is currently the case within the EPRDF, in which regional parties until
now have been powerful independent entities.[52]
According to the party’s draft bylaws, a key change would be that a National
Congress would directly elect representatives to the new party’s Central Committee.[53]
Direct election would mark a departure from the EPRDF system in which
its 180-member Council – its key decision-making body – comprises 45 delegates from each of the regional party’s central
committees. Moreover, the party’s national leadership would nominate the
heads of its regional branches.[54]

The
merger also arguably represents a step away from formal ethnic power sharing. Under the current system, the mostly
mono-ethnic parties at the EPRDF alliance’s core run regional states in
which those ethnicities predominate. The principal ethno-linguistic groups in each region thus enjoy substantial autonomy
over local decision-making, including
choosing the administration’s working language and security management.
The proposed reforms open the new party’s regional branches to individuals from
all ethnicities and mean that its central committee will not be formally
composed of ethno-regional blocs.

Opponents
perceive this change as inching away from ethnic federalism toward a system
based on territory but not identity. The new party’s draft bylaws suggest that representation in its National Congress will be
based on the population size and number of party members in each region,
indicating a move to majoritarian politics, an
inevitable consequence of which would be to favour the Amhara and Oromo.
Critics also claim that after the election, Abiy wants to amend the
constitution to become a directly elected president.[55]
A senior federal official, however, said the parliamentary system is likely to
remain, even if there is a constitutional review process – which he does
anticipate – after the election.[56]

Much of the EPRDF leadership formally supports the
merger. Amhara Democratic Party leaders welcome it. They believe that Abiy’s new party marks a
step away from ethnic federalism and will
further strip the TPLF of influence in federal institutions.[57]
For now, the ADP’s ethno-nationalist rivals
in Amhara also favour moving away from ethnic federalism, which they
also perceive as a system designed to impose Tigrayan dominance at their expense.[58]
ODP leaders formally support Abiy’s plan, though there are signs of
discontent within the party’s ranks. Muferiat Kamil, leader of the Southern
Nations ruling party, the SEPDM, who is also minister of peace, backs the plan.[59]
Mustafa Omer, acting Somali region president and an Abiy ally, also supports it. In the past, he has spoken of his worries
about balkanisation, describing Ethiopia’s decision to grant regional
states control of autonomous security forces as a historic mistake.[60]

The
merger enjoys additional support from influential figures in society who are
weary of the ethnic-based political system. According to Mesenbet Assefa,
an assistant professor of law at Addis Ababa University, for example:

The
Prosperity Party will help tame the hyper-ethnicised political discourse. It is
true that ethnic federalism has allowed a
degree of self-governance and use of one’s own language and culture. But
it has also fomented hostility that has reached unimaginable proportions in the
country. … The new Prosperity Party will
help balance pan-Ethiopian and ethnic
sentiment. In fact, millions of Ethiopians, especially urbanites who
have mixed ethnic heritage and progressive politics, feel that they are not
adequately represented in the ethnic federal arrangement.[61]

The plan
also generates hostility, however, mostly from those who support ethnic federalism and view the merger as a first step toward dismantling
it. TPLF leaders reject it outright, believing that it signals the end of the
multinational order.[62] Some argue that ethnic federalism protects Ethiopia from its own
history of coercive centralism and cultural homogenisation. Undoing it, they
say, would set the stage for a return to
rule by an abusive centre or even worse. “The most probable outcome is disintegration. But I am not saying we will let that
happen”, said a top TPLF official.[63]

TPLF leaders opposed the merger at
the Executive Committee 16 November meeting and boycotted the 21 November
Council meeting, saying they needed more time to discuss the plans with members
and raising procedural objections.[64] The SEPDM upper echelons are reportedly divided on the issue,
despite Muferiat’s support. An SEPDM EPRDF Council member told Crisis Group
that some approved the merger on the basis of the new party’s commitment to
multinational federation, but that they would leave if that was not honoured.[65]

Even
within Abiy’s own ODP, many regard the merger warily.[66]
They, like Oromo opposition leaders, oppose the outsized influence the TPLF has
previously enjoyed but value ethno-regional autonomy, and so are aligned with
Tigrayan leaders on federalism. On 29 November, Defence Minister Lemma Megersa
broke ranks with Abiy, declaring his opposition to the merger.[67]
He contended that the timing was not right for the merger, saying Oromia’s
ruling party had not yet delivered on its promises to the Oromo. Lemma’s open dissent is significant, given his prominent role
in events leading to Abiy’s assumption of the premiership. As
ex-president of Oromia, he was a key figure
in a group of EPRDF reformers known as Team Lemma that tacitly threw
their weight behind the protest movement, hastening the previous
administration’s exit. Lemma was a leading candidate for the premiership until
February 2018, when Abiy replaced him as
Oromo party leader as Lemma did not hold a federal parliamentary seat, a
prerequisite to become prime minister. Oromo activists also dislike the plan.
According to Jawar:

Sooner or later
the merger will start to erode the federal system. The groups won’t be able to collectively bargain.
It’s too early to dismantle ethnic-based national organisations.[68]

That said, for now Abiy’s dissenting colleagues and Oromo
rivals appear set on waiting to see what emerges from the Prosperity Party.
They will take on the new party at the
ballot box if they believe that it will erode Oromia’s autonomy or otherwise
thwart Oromo interests.[69]
Jawar himself pledges to run for either the Oromo or the national legislature, though he would have to relinquish
his U.S. citizenship to do so.[70]
Indeed, forthcoming elections could
pit supporters of ethnic federalism, including Abiy’s Oromo rivals and
the TPLF, against its opponents, led by Abiy’s new party.

So far, Abiy’s efforts to win over the Prosperity Party’s
detractors have largely fallen flat. The prime minister has asserted that the merger will not affect
ethnic federalism and his supporters deny that it aims to whittle down regions’
influence.[71]
But to many opponents, the plan to
strengthen the central party at the expense of its regional blocs
suggests the opposite.[72]
Because the EPRDF and the federal structure came
into being together in the early 1990s, the two are intertwined and widely
associated with one another. Moreover, Abiy’s advisers and appointees
include critics of ethnic federalism.[73]
Opponents also perceive Abiy’s doctrine of medemer, or synergy,
about which he has recently published a book and which will inform the new
party’s program, as signalling his intention
to undo the system.[74]
At its core, medemer stresses
national unity, with diverse entities cooperating for the common good. A 22 November
statement after the EPRDF Council meeting said the new party would “harmonise
group and individual rights, ethnic identity and Ethiopian unity”.[75]

V.  Calming the Tensions

The intra-Oromo tensions, plus those between the Oromo
and Amhara, the Amhara and Tigray and the TPLF and Abiy’s government, threaten
to derail Ethiopia’s transition. Direct armed confrontation sucking in regional
elites and federal politicians and
potentially splitting the military high command appears unlikely, at least for now.
Indeed, the army is performing a crucial role managing flashpoints, and it has
remained a beacon of multi-ethnic cohesion despite the 22 June assassination of
its chief of staff. But the consequences of such confrontation, were it to
happen, would be catastrophic, raising the spectre of all-out civil war and the
fracturing of eastern Africa’s pivotal state.

Abiy’s overarching
problem in calming those tensions is that acceding to one group’s demands risks eliciting violent reactions from
another. Many Ethiopians demand action against Jawar for his role in the late
October bloodshed.[76] But
moves by the authorities against him are likely to stir up more turbulence in
Oromia and further weaken Abiy’s base. If the government meets Oromo demands –
awarding them greater administrative power over Addis Ababa, for example – it
would trigger resistance from other groups, especially Amhara. Any federal
attempt to assuage the TPLF’s concerns at its marginalisation could provoke
opposition from the many Ethiopians who blame it for an
authoritarian system’s past excesses. Backing Amhara’s territorial claims
could lead to confrontation with Tigray’s well-drilled security forces.

The dilemma for the prime minister
related to ethnic federalism is equally pronounced. Until now, he has largely
trodden a middle path between proponents and detractors. But his ruling party
reform moves him more concretely into the latter camp, raising the prospect of
fiercer resistance by those who see preserving the system as in their
interests. At the same time, mollifying that group risks leaving behind a
pan-Ethiopian constituency that is influential in urban areas yet holds little
formal power, and which would like to turn the page on ethnic politics and has
largely supported the prime minister until now.

The
prime minister and his domestic and international allies can, however, take
steps to cool things down. Abiy’s camp should clearly signal that any possible
future formal review of Ethiopia’s constitution would be inclusive of
opposition parties and civil society. While
some interlocutors describe Abiy as aloof and averse to advice, the
premier has started to facilitate cross-party and inter-ethnic crisis
discussions. He should continue to foster these.[77]
Abiy and his allies should press for intensified negotiations among Oromo
factions and between Amhara and Tigray’s leaders. Ahead of the May 2020 elections, Abiy could convene a meeting with all major
parties, activists and civil society
to help minimise violence and division around what is shaping up to be a high-stakes vote. But if conditions
deteriorate further, he could consider a delay to that vote and some
form of national dialogue.

As
for Ethiopia’s international partners, they should pressure all elites,
including opposition figures, to curb incendiary rhetoric. They should also
bolster Ethiopia’s economy against shocks that could aggravate political
problems and, if Abiy’s government requests
it, provide a multi-year financial package to create space for his reforms.

A. Reducing Conflict Risks from the Party Merger Plan

While Prime Minister Abiy is within his rights to
spearhead the refashioning of the ruling coalition, he would be better advised
to calm fears that the move concentrates power in Addis Ababa and is the
beginning of the end of ethnic federalism, an issue that Tigrayan politicians
in particular view as almost existential. It will be a hard sell. Signals that
Abiy and his allies have sent since coming to power about their intentions to
remake Ethiopia’s federation undercut their claims that they do not seek to
undo current arrangements. Indeed, for many of Abiy’s supporters, remaking
those arrangements is a key political goal and a vocal lobby beyond them
supports such reforms. Still, Abiy can
reiterate more forcefully that any far-reaching reordering of Ethiopia’s
constitutional order under his watch will take place down the line and through
a consensual, consultative process, involving not only the ruling party but
also other factions and Ethiopian civil society. A process along these lines
would also benefit those among Ethiopian society that want to move away from
ethnic federalism, by giving them a voice in reforms.

B. Calming Tensions in Oromia

The prime minister shouldmaintain lines of communication with the Oromo opposition and
continue to facilitate dialogue between Oromo and Amhara political parties
aimed at reducing tensions that occurred after the October violence.[78]
Civil society groups such as the Inter-Religious Council and elders from the
various ethnic groups should press ahead
with their ongoing efforts to stimulate dialogue among both elites and
the grassroots. Oromo elders, for example, brokered a January 2019 agreement
that helped reduce fighting between federal troops and elements of the Oromo
Liberation Front.[79]
They have also reportedly played a role in encouraging talks among rival
factions in Oromia and should maintain this effort.[80]
They should emphasise to rival camps that all parties should channel their
competition through the electoral process and discourage violence.

C. Addressing Tigray Alienation

The government ought to start reversing Tigray’s
dangerous alienation. While its politicians
will inevitably lose from more representative politics, there are ways to mend
bridges. The Tigray elite have already displayed a capacity to act in the
national interest over the past two years. Although often portrayed as having
retreated to their Tigray fortress in anger after losing their dominant
position in Addis Ababa, parts of the
Tigrayan leadership in fact displayed considerable restraint by relinquishing
their grip on power. In early 2018, many feared Ethiopia was careening toward
civil war amid the three-year grinding confrontation between protesters and the
security state. By ceding control, TPLF heavyweights took a difficult but
inarguably wise decision. Prime Minister Abiy and his allies can now take steps
to persuade them to more substantively rejoin the conversation at the centre of
Ethiopia’s future.

A
first step would be to ease Tigray-Amhara tensions and Tigray disquiet over
Amhara’s territorial claims. Abiy’s government could continue to encourage
Amhara and Tigray leaders to intensify and
broaden promising initial discussions aimed at easing their mutually
hostile relations, while pressuring hardliners to allow such conciliatory steps to occur. The Administrative
Boundaries and Identity Issues Commission could assert that it aims to
resolve the status of the disputed territories on the basis of self-determination, even if leaving open questions of who
has a say in their future. In turn, Tigray leaders might reconsider
their rejection of the commission’s role.

Abiy
and his allies could also reconsider what the TPLF perceives as a one-sided
campaign of prosecutions of leading Tigrayans. Though Tigrayans were prominent
in the previous administrations, leaders of other major ethnicities were also
present in federal security organs. Besides, to portray the former regime’s
legacy in a purely negative light would be misleading: it built vital
infrastructure, revived an economy battered by years of civil war, and oversaw
major advances in basic health care and education for the large impoverished
rural population. Transitional justice might be better implemented after
ongoing reforms to judicial and investigative organs are complete.

For
its part, the TPLF could show greater pragmatism. Rather than adopting a siege
mentality and drawing red lines on issues like the ruling coalition merger, its
leaders could seek compromises with Abiy’s government in the same spirit that
some of them show toward nascent discussions with their Amhara counterparts.
Further, if a national dialogue takes place, Tigrayan elites might want to own
up to some of the abuses that took place in
the three decades in which they controlled key state organs. Such a good-will
gesture would hasten national reconciliation and might reduce opposition
to steps to end prosecutions.

D. Reducing Election Risks and Setting up a National Dialogue

The prime minister’s office has reaffirmed that the
government intends to hold the vote on schedule – understandably so, given his
desire to achieve a popular mandate to push forward with his reforms. Moreover,
the legal procedure for deferring the vote past May’s constitutional deadline
is unclear and a postponement could expose the
premier to questions about his legitimacy.[81]
If the vote proceeds, dialling down tensions beforehand will be
critical.[82]
Abiy and his allies could convene a national conversation with opposition
parties and civil society to discuss campaigning and election procedures,
including the security management of contested cities that are electoral
hotspots and how to ensure that state institutions and public officials do not
support the ruling party, as occurred extensively during past elections.

This forum could help on a number of
fronts. It would offer a chance to limit expectations: even with the best of
intentions, polls will be marked by challenges, given that the new electoral
board is still finding its feet and opposition parties, media and civil society
monitors remain weak. It could allow Abiy and the authorities to build good-will
and encourage parties to pledge not to campaign divisively or view the vote as
an existential, winner-take-all affair. Abiy himself might promise to form, if
he triumphs at the ballot box, an inclusive government, for example by bringing
in regional leaders in the cabinet even if they opt not to join his new party.
Initial discussions are also necessary on how to improve inter-governmental
coordination in a federation facing a post-EPRDF future, where opposing parties
may control the central and regional governments.

If, however, the political temperature
rises further, Abiy may have to seek an election delay. A divisive and bloody
campaign, with candidates making openly ethnic-based appeals for votes, could
tip the country over the edge.[83]
Provided that Abiy secures broad support for a
delay and uses the time the right way, he should be able to weather criticism. Tigray leaders want the
vote on time – in Tigray region, they face little competition or insecurity
that could disrupt balloting, and in any case their fears about ethnic
federalism mean that they oppose constitutional violations such as election
delays – though the steps outlined above aimed at tackling their grievances
might help bring them along. Oromo and Amhara opposition
actors from Jawar and the OLF to the National Movement of Amhara could back a
postponement so long as they were included in any major political discussions.[84]

If polls are delayed, some form of national dialogue, with Abiy
presiding, might be an option. Such talks would aim, first, to build consensus on a
timeline for transitional milestones, including a long overdue census and new
dates for elections, including at village, district and city levels. More
importantly, it could set out a process through which Ethiopia’s leaders can
try to resolve deep-seated disagreements over past violence, power sharing,
regional autonomy, territory and the future of ethnic federalism. According to
one top Western diplomat:

The prime
minister could say we’re trying to change the country, build on the past, call together a national conversation, trying to build a new
national social contract. He could present it as the natural next stage in the
nation’s history, orchestrating an extended dialogue that addresses fundamental
constitutional issues, such as the degree of federalism.[85]

E.  International Support

In a country historically suspicious of outside
involvement, external actors inevitably are constrained in the roles they can
play. But the more open environment under Abiy means that the country’s
international partners, including the U.S., Europeans and Abiy’s Gulf allies,
can be franker than in the past, even if behind closed doors.

First,
outside powers need freshened-up talking points. Ethiopia’s transition still
offers great hope and merits all the support it can get. But the continued
unmitigated acclaim from abroad appears
increasingly out of step with trends on the ground. Now that Abiy has
been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Ethiopia’s international partners can offer
constructive criticism as well as plaudits. The prime minister foreign allies
should nudge his government toward a more cautious and consultative approach.
They should pressure Oromo, Amhara and Tigray elites, including Jawar and other
opposition figures, with whom many international actors have contacts, to avoid
inflammatory rhetoric. They should encourage all Ethiopian leaders to defer
contentious demands over federal power sharing, regional autonomy and territory
until after the May elections or, if they are delayed, until some form of
national dialogue or other consultative process is in place. They should back
an election delay if one becomes necessary.[86]

Secondly,
international partners should use financial aid and technical support to
protect Ethiopia from economic shocks, such as from a reduction in construction
jobs due to diminished infrastructure investment, large-scale layoffs of civil
servants, increased external debt-servicing costs due to devaluation of the
national currency, the birr, or basic commodities prices hikes. In today’s
fraught environment, economic discontent could easily incite protests,
dangerously compounding communal divisions. International partners should also
be ready to discuss a comprehensive package of support for institutional and
economic reform during a multi-year transition, if the government requests it.[87]
Western governments could consider following China’s lead and offering Abiy’s
government debt relief, which could reopen some fiscal space to maintain public
investment in vital infrastructure projects that create jobs for a youthful
population.[88]

VI. Conclusion

Since taking office, Prime Minister Abiy has tried to
drive Ethiopia’s transition from the centre, straddling a line between
ethno-nationalists and opponents of ethnic federalism. But his plan to
transform the ruling coalition has widened a fault line that has bedevilled the
Ethiopian state for decades, between those who see ethnic federalism as a
bulwark against the coercive centralism of the past and those who view it as a
source of division and violence. Moreover, even as Abiy and his allies attempt
to push forward reforms, they have to grapple
with other challenges, perhaps most urgently
ethnic strife that could tip the country into wider conflict and an under-employed
young cohort demanding greater economic opportunities.

Ethiopia
has long been an anchor state in the restive Horn of Africa. Its three-year
uprising arguably served as a model for later protests in the neighbourhood.
Many are watching its delicate transition to a potentially more open era with
considerable expectation. Ethiopian leaders and their foreign allies should
redouble efforts to prevent a breakdown and to shepherd the country to a better
future.

Appendix
A: Map of Ethiopia


[1] Internal Displacement
Monitoring Center website. According to the government,
1.8 million internally displaced persons returned to their places of origin
between April and July 2019. “Ethiopia National Displacement Report”,
International Organization for Migration, 22 October 2019.

[2] See Crisis Group
Report N°269,
Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition,
21 February 2019; Crisis Group Statement, Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations, 25
June 2019;and Crisis Group EU Watch
List, “Watch List – Second Update”, 17 July 2019.

[3] Jawar’s Facebook statement read: “Now it appears the plan was not to
arrest me. The plan was to remove my security and unleash civilian attackers
and claim it was a mob attack”.

[4] “Ethiopia human rights commission opens inquiry on recent
violence”, Ezega, 31 October
2019; and “Over 400 individuals detained for inciting violence: PM Office”, Fana Broadcasting Corporation, 31
October 2019.

[5] “Violence during Ethiopian protests was ethnically tinged, say
eyewitnesses”, Reuters, 26
October 2019; and “Tragedy struck
Ethiopia, again: ‘We are dealing with a different scenario’”, Addis Standard, 28 October 2019.

[6] “After a
massacre, Ethiopia’s leader faces anger, and a challenger”, The New York Times, 18 November 2019.
Crisis Group telephone interview, Jawar Mohammed, November 2019.

[7] “Ethiopia activist calls for calm after 16 killed in clashes”, Reuters,24 October 2019.

[8] See section IV.

[9] “TPLF hegemony has ended, but EPRDF power struggle is just beginning”,
Ethiopia Insight,9 January 2019.

[10] “Rallies held in Oromia over threat to disarm OLF”, Ethiopia Insight,
30 October 2018.

[11] The OLF first emerged in
1973 to fight for Oromo self-determination. It has been exiled since 1992, when
it left a transitional government after clashing with the TPLF.

[12] Crisis Group interview, senior ODP official, December 2019. “Two steps
forward, one step back for Oromia?”, Ethiopia Insight, 7 June 2019.

[13] Crisis Group
telephone interview, Oromo opposition party leader, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[14] Crisis Group
interview, OLF official, Addis Ababa, July 2019.

[15] See “Ethiopia’s Orthodox
Church criticises Abiy’s ‘failure to protect citizens’”, Africa News, 29
October 2019. The prime minister said the death toll from the recent fighting
in Oromia included 40 Christians and 34
Muslims. “Ethiopia’s Abiy says protest death toll rises to 86”, Al Jazeera, 4 November
2019. “Uptick in church burnings raises alarm in Ethiopia”, Public Radio
International (PRI),16 September
2019. “Ethiopian
Islamic Affairs Supreme Council condemns two separate attacks on mosques in
South Gonder”, Addis Standard, 12
February 2019.

[16] Church leaders say
ethno-nationalist groups attacked 30 churches and killed 100 worshippers in
different parts of Ethiopia before the October violence. In February 2019, a
mob attacked a mosque in the Gondar area of Amhara. “Uptick in
church burnings raises alarm in Ethiopia”, PRI,16 September 2019. “Ethiopian
Islamic Affairs Supreme Council condemns two separate attacks on mosques in South Gondar”, Addis Standard, 12 February 2019.

[17] Opponents also
say Jawar receives funds from the Gulf, but they have offered no evidence to
back up these claims, either. On the 2011-2012 protests, see Crisis Group
Africa Briefing N°117, Ethiopia: Governing the
Faithful, 
22 November 2016.,ational
currency, the s ian cooperation or synergyutside Oromia and generally are seen
as an attack against the idea of a unita

[18] “Ethiopia
mourns dead after ethnic violence breaks out”, Voice of America (VOA), 29
October 2019.

[19] Crisis Group
interviews, Jawar Mohammed and ruling party official, Addis Ababa, November
2019.

[20] The federal capital generates around one quarter of Ethiopia’s
economic output despite containing only around one twentieth of the national
population. The constitution states that Oromia’s “special interest” in areas
such as the use of natural resources, social service provision or “joint
administrative matters arising from the location of Addis Ababa in the State of
Oromia shall be respected” (Article 49 (5), Constitution of the Federal
Republic of Ethiopia, adopted 8 December 1994). What “special interest” means
is not fleshed out in law, however, and other groups accuse Oromo activists of
seeking to monopolise resources in the capital. Crisis Group interview, leading opposition activist, Addis Ababa, May
2019.

[21] Crisis Group
interview, Oromia ruling party official, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[22] Crisis Group
interview, leading opposition activist, Addis Ababa, May 2019.

[23] Ibid.

[24] See Crisis
Group EU Watch List, “Watch List 2019
– Second Update”, op. cit.

[25] Internal
Displacement Monitoring Center website.

[26] CIA World
Factbook website.

[27] The EPRDF
Council comprises 45 members from each of the four parties’ Central Committees.

[28] For a good
summary of the contending viewpoints, see Mahmood Mamdani,“The trouble with Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism”, The New York Times, 3 January 2019; and
Alemayehu Weldemariam, “Ethiopia’s federation needs reviving, not
reconfiguring”, Ethiopia Insight,
10 January 2019.

[29] Crisis Group
interview, senior Amhara official, Bahir
Dar,November 2019.

[30] On 13 November, Ethiopia’s
attorney general announced the results of an investigation that concluded
Asaminew was responsible. While many Amhara reject that finding, two senior
Amhara officials confirmed it to Crisis Group. Crisis Group interviews, Bahir
Dar, November 2019. Asaminew may have believed that he was attacking
preemptively, suspecting that regional officials were set to remove him from
his position. See Crisis Group Statement, “Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after
High-profile Assassinations”, op. cit. “Attorney General says June 22 Amhara
senior region leaders, army chief Gen Seare assassinations led by Asaminew
Tsige”, Addis Standard, 13 November 2019.

[31] See Crisis
Group EU Watch List, “Watch List 2019
– Second Update”, op. cit.

[32] “[Oromia
Regional State] has no other position concerning Finfinne”, ODP statement,
Facebook, 26 February 2019. Finfinne, which means “natural spring”, is the name
by which Oromo nationalists refer to the capital, rejecting the Amharic name,
Addis Ababa, which they perceive as an imposition by the mainly Amhara rulers
who presided over Ethiopia in the past.

[33] “Anger in
Ethiopia as police demolish hundreds of houses”, Associated Press, 23 February
2019.

[34] “‘Still I’m
afraid’: Victims reel from deadly Ethiopia clashes”, Agence France Presse, 1
November 2019.

[35] Tigray reportedly still
make up some 40 per cent of the army officer corps. Crisis Group
interviews, defence analysts and former Tigrayan military officer, MekeleJuly 2019.

[36] Crisis Group
interviews, former TPLF intelligence officer, other TPLF officials, September
and November 2019. Assefa is believed to be in Tigray region but his exact
whereabouts are unknown.

[37] Crisis Group
interview, senior federal official, Addis Ababa, December 2019.

[38] Crisis Group
interview, senior TPLF official, Mekele, November 2019.

[39] Crisis Group
interview, senior TPLF official, Mekele, July 2019.

[40] Crisis Group
interview, senior TPLF official, Mekele,November 2019.

[41] Crisis Group
interview, senior TPLF official, July 2019.

[42] Crisis Group
interview, Tigrayan former senior military officer, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[43] Crisis Group
interview, former senior security agency official, Mekele, November 2019.

[44] Crisis Group
interviews, two senior Amhara regional officials and military officer, November
2019. The Qemant in Amhara demand more autonomous territory after regional authorities granted them a degree of self-rule.

[45] Crisis Group
interviews, former TPLF intelligence officer and other TPLF officials, Addis
Ababa, September and November 2019.

[46] Crisis Group
interview, Mekele, November 2019.

[47] See Crisis Group
Africa Briefing N°146, Time for Ethiopia
to Bargain with Sidama over Statehood
, 4 July 2019.

[48] “Ethiopia’s Sidama
people vote to create new state”, Associated Press, 23 November 2019. The
electoral board announced that 98.5 per cent of the electorate supported the
creation of a new state, an overwhelming endorsement suggesting that minorities
in the region, many of whom opposed the creation of the new state, skipped the
referendum.

[49] Ibid.

[50] Some argue that a
formal constitutional amendment is needed to add a tenth state to the nine
listed in the constitution. Crisis Group interview, SEPDM Central Committee
member, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[51] Crisis Group
interview, adviser to the prime minister, Addis Ababa,November 2019. Crisis Group interview, senior
federal official, Addis Ababa, December 2019. “Prosperity Party establishment
takes all required legal steps: Premier”, Ethiopian Press Agency, 29 November
2019.

[52] Ibid.

[53] “Third day
EPRDF discussing ‘Prosperity Party’ regulation”, Addis Standard, 18 November 2019.

[54] Crisis Group
interview, senior ODP official, Addis Ababa, December 2019.

[55] Crisis Group
interviews, TPLF Executive Committee and Central Committee members, Tigray,
November 2019.

[56] Crisis Group
interview, senior federal official, Addis Ababa, December 2019.

[57] Crisis Group
interview, ADP Executive Committee member, Bahir Dar, November 2019.

[58] Crisis Group
interviews, NaMA leadership and regional representatives, Addis Ababa and Bahir
Dar, November 2019.

[59] Crisis Group
telephone interview, SEPDM Central Committee member, November 2019.

[60] “Abiy Ahmed
and the struggle to keep Ethiopia together”, The Africa Report, 11
October 2019. Crisis Group interview, senior former opposition leader, London,
September 2019.

[61] Crisis Group
telephone interview, December 2019.

[62] Crisis Group interview, senior TPLF official, Mekele, July 2019.

[63] Crisis
Group interviews, TPLF Central Committee and Executive Committee officials,
Tigray, November 2019.

[64] Abiy’s allies cite the EPRDF’s decision at the October 2018 general assembly,
or Congress, at which each of the four member parties
had an equal say, to bring the five allied parties into the EPRDF and to
formulate a proposal on how to consolidate all nine parties into a single one
as providing a mandate for the merger. TPLF officials say it greenlighted
discussions only, not the merger itself, at that meeting. Crisis Group telephone
interviews, EPRDF officials, October and November 2019.

[65] Crisis Group telephone
interview, SEPDM Central Committee member, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[66] Crisis Group
interviews, activists and analysts close to ODP, November 2019.

[67] “Lemma Megersa
dismisses Medemer, Prosperity Party”, Addis
Standard, 
29 November 2019.

[68] Crisis Group
interview, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[69] Crisis Group
telephone interview, Oromo opposition leader, Addis Ababa, November 2019.

[70] Crisis Group
telephone interview, Jawar Mohammed, November 2019.

[71] Interview with Abiy Ahmed, Sheger Radio, 14 September 2019; “PM
Abiy Ahmed launches his book Medemer”, Addis Standard, 20 October
2019. Crisis Group interview, senior ODP official, Addis Ababa, December 2019.

[72] Crisis
Group interview, politician involved in crafting the 1995 constitution, Addis
Ababa, November 2019.

[73] These critics include, for example, Berhanu Nega, leader of the
opposition party Ezema; and two Abiy appointees, Birtukan Mideksa at the
electoral commission and Gedion Timothewos Hessebon, a minister at the Attorney
General’s Office.

[74]
Abiy Ahmed, Medemer (Addis Ababa, 2019). One million copies of the book
were printed in Amharic and Afaan Oromoo.

[75] EPRDF Council
statement, 22 November 2019.

[76] Crisis Group
interviews, ADP Executive Committee member and NaMA representatives, Bahir Dar,
November 2019.

[77] Crisis Group
interview, opposition leader, Addis Ababa, November 2019. Crisis Group
telephone interview, senior EU official, November 2019.

[78] “Seven political parties
operating in Oromia and Amhara agree to work together”, Fana Broadcasting
Corporation, 15 November 2019.

[79] “Breakthrough as
government, OLF-SG agree on immediate ceasefire, encampment of rebel army in 20
days”, Addis Standard, 24 January
2019.

[80] Crisis Group
interview, civil society figure familiar with the talks, Addis Ababa, November
2019.

[81] As recently as mid-November, his office told Western diplomats that
it would proceed with a May vote. Crisis
Group interviews, Western diplomats, 25 November 2019.

[82] “Ethiopia’s 2020 vote
will be free, won’t be delayed by reforms: Abiy”, Reuters, 25 August 2018.

[83] Candidates
contest seats in single-member constituencies, meaning that in mostdistricts,
candidates from the same ethnicity run against each other.

[84] Crisis Group
interviews, Addis Ababa, November and December 2019.

[85] Crisis Group
telephone interview, November 2019.

[86] According
to one senior European official: “We’d better all be very careful about the way
forward, as this is a powder keg. This chase for an election now is deadly and
the international community risks being fellow travellers and enablers”. Crisis Group telephone interview, November 2019.

[87] On 11 December, the
International Monetary Fund said it had reached a “preliminary agreement” with
Ethiopia’s government on a three-year, $2.9 billion loan to support economic
reforms, including a “transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime”. “IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on a US$2.9 Billion Financing Package with Ethiopia”, International Monetary Fund, 11 December 2019.

[88] “China’s reprieve
on interest-free loan only”, Addis
Standard
, 25 April 2019. In April, China cancelled interest-free loans it has extended to Ethiopia, although neither
Beijing nor Addis offered details of the deal.

The post International Crisis Group: keeping Ethiopia’s transition on the rails appeared first on Addis Standard.

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Hate, Hearts and Minds: “Creating an Ethiopia That is Second to None in Its Guarantee of Freedom of Expression” (Part I)

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

“We are creating an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedom of expression. We should avoid the path of extremism and division, powered by the politics of exclusion. Our accord hangs in the balance of inclusive politics.
The evangelists of hate and division are wreaking havoc in our society using social media. They are preaching the gospel of revenge and retribution on the airwaves.
Together, we must neutralize the toxin of hatred by creating a civic culture of consensus-based democracy, inclusivity, civility, and tolerance based on Medemer principles.
The art of building peace is a synergistic process to change hearts, minds, beliefs and attitudes, that never ceases.
— H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, December 10, 2015

Author’s Note: Last week, David Kaye, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression issued an “End of Mission Statement” [hereinafter “preliminary report”] on the “situation of freedom of opinion and expression in Ethiopia today.” This was the first time since 2006 the U.N. rapporteur had been invited to enter Ethiopia to do an assessment.

In passing, I wish to note that Kaye is a clinical professor of law at the University of California, Irvine, a stone’s throw away from my own California State University, San Bernardino.

In passing, I also wish to note that Human Rights Watch on December 19, 2019 issued a statement echoing the “findings” in Kaye’s “preliminary report”. My analysis and response herein is intended to specifically address the concerns and criticisms expressed by Kaye regarding the draft “hate speech and disinformation” proclamation currently before the Ethiopian parliament.  I have studied that proclamation carefully and believe it not only conforms to international standards of freedom of expression but can also withstand rigorous analytical scrutiny.

I do not think the draft proclamation is perfect but I certainly do not share the “serious concerns” expressed by Kaye nor agree with his main conclusions about the draft proclamation’s alleged flaws. Neither do I believe Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights as propounded by the chosen few oracles is the standard of perfection for freedom of expression. 

It is the solemn duty of the defense lawyer to take a position on an issue of law and prevail by providing substantial evidence and persuasive and convincing arguments. I see no need presently to litigate the issue of freedom of expression in Ethiopia or the alleged flaws of the draft hate crimes and disinformation proclamation in the court of Ethiopian or world public opinion.

We all want freedom of expression to blossom and cherish in Ethiopia. All stakeholders – the government, opposition parties and groups, civic society and domestic and international human rights organizations and others – are on the same side of the issue. We all fully support the broadest enjoyment of freedom of expression in Ethiopia.

This is not to deny the fact that Ethiopia for the last 27 years has agonized  under the boots of a criminal regime deathly afraid of freedom of expression. Until this year, Ethiopia was #4 on the list of the “10 Most Censored Countries in the World”.

I have a very special interest in freedom of expression in America and in Ethiopia.

Freedom of expression to me is not a philosophical abstraction to talk about in the halls of academia and in the conference halls. It is not a fashionable idea to banter over at cocktail parties. It is not even a technical subject matter to litigate in the courts.

Freedom of expression is my  life, my passion and my raison d’etre (reason for being).

I have expressed myself for nearly 14 years (http://almariam.com/) in my weekly commentaries, (which some have said has been relentlessly hypercritical and censorious of the TPLF regime in Ethiopia), without missing a single week, sometimes expressing myself 5-7 times a week. I can confidently say few individuals anywhere have used freedom of expression as a weapon of mass galvanization against the TPLF regime than myself. My slogan emblazoned on my website is “Speaking Truth to (Abusers) Power”.

I believe the bedrock foundation of all liberties is freedom of expression. A society that does not protect and defend freedom of expression is a dead society. I pride myself as an unrepentant hard-core defender of freedom of expression.

I fully agree with John Milton in Areopagitica, arguably the most eloquent defense of freedom of expression written in the English language: “Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties.”

I consider myself well-tutored in the jurisprudence of freedom of expression and have taught it as an academic subject for decades. I have debated the subject on university campuses and written academic papers, op-eds, blogs and commentaries in defense of freedom of expression.

I believe the time now is right for all freedom lovers to come together in the spirit of Medemer and promote freedom of expression in Ethiopia.

Most lawyers in the world live in an adversarial world of competition where the rule is winner-takes-all. They prefer to play and win zero-sum legal games. That is, they win all the time and the other side loses all the time. Only when that is not possible or tenable will they opt for non-zero-sum games in which they will still try to take maximum advantage and win.

I believe today “We” have an opportunity to practice Medemer philosophy in the law particularly in enhancing laws that protects freedom of expression and promote human rights in Ethiopia.

I call that “Medemer jurisprudence”. We can advance the cause of freedom of expression in Ethiopia by creating legal synergy and working cooperatively to promote just, fair and reasonable laws. There are only winners and no losers if freedom of expression blossoms and flourishes in Ethiopia.

So, freedom of expression in Ethiopia today is a simple Medemer question:

Can Ethiopian scholars, academics, lawyers, judges, journalists, public officials, civic society leaders, local and international human rights advocates, opinion, youth and other leaders work together synergistically over the long-term to ensure the growth and expansion of freedom expression in Ethiopia?

They certainly can and produce amazing results!

In this two-part (or more) commentary on freedom of expression, I hope to be able to work with Kaye and any other human rights organizations, civic society or political groups as an independent academic and lawyer interested in promoting, expanding and defending expressive freedoms in Ethiopiain the spirit of Medemer.

If we can work in the spirit of Medemer, we can certainly begin to undertake massive homegrown legal reforms to promote human rights and effect improvements in other areas of the law in Ethiopia.

 If we can do that, I have no doubts in just a few years we can achieve PM Abiy’s promise of creating an Ethiopia that is second to none in freedom of expression.

We can transform Ethiopia from an arid landscape of enforced silence and fear of self-expression to an oasis, indeed a horn of plenty, of liberty.  

Truth be told, I proudly confess, my ultimate dream is to make Ethiopia the Mecca for freedom of expression in Africa.

In Part I, I shall discuss my personal philosophy and experience in defense of freedom of expression and my reservations about David Kaye’s “preliminary report”.

In Part II, I shall discuss the technical aspects of the draft “hate crimes and disinformation” proclamation before the Ethiopian parilament.

In service to the defense of freedom of expression

In his Nobel Peace Prize Lecture on December 10, 2019, H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed boldly announced to the world, “We are creating an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedoms of expression.”

Never in my wildest imagination did I ever think an Ethiopian leader would make such a statement before a worldwide audience of 1.2 billion people who listened to his speech, or even privately.

No Ethiopian leader in recorded history has ever made such a sweeping and unwavering commitment to expressive freedoms or, even more stunningly, followed action to affirm freedom of expression with verbal commitment to promote, cherish and defend it.

PM Abiy’s statement is stunning because in 2015, Ethiopia was known as the “fourth most censored country in the world”.

Until about a year and a half ago, Ethiopia was known as “the second worst jailer of journalists in Africa.”

Today, “for the first time in decades, there are no Ethiopian journalists in prison”, journalists are free to report, bloggers to blog, trolls to troll with their inanities and internet access is busted wide open.

From the absolute worst violator of freedom of expression to second to none in a matter of months simply boggles the mind. I am simply speechless (pun intended).

Freedom of expression is something that is near and dear to my heart and  a cause for which I have been criticized, denounced and chastised over the years.

I have written dozens of commentaries on freedom of expression in Ethiopia over the past 14 years.

In 2007, I offered to arrange a meeting between DLA Piper, the TPLF lobbyist, and exiled Ethiopian journalists including  the former president of the Ethiopian Free Press Journalists Association after the DLA Piper lobbyists incredibly claimed they had “no knowledge whatsoever” about the situation of journalists in Ethiopia.

In 2009, I defended press freedom in Ethiopia in my commentary, “The Art of War on Ethiopia’s Independent Press”.

In September 2010, in my “Open Letter to President Lee C. Bollinger, Columbia University”, I defended the late despot Meles Zenawi’s right to speak freely at Columbia even while he was jailing dissidents and journalists and shuttering the press in Ethiopia left and right.

The sad irony was the fact that I had to publicly disagree with journalists Eskinder Nega and Serkalem Fasil who had suffered greatly at the hand of Zenawi and did not want him to speak at Columbia. I had to choose between my loyalty to Eskinder and Serkalem and my commitment to freedom of expression and publicly side with the murderer Meles Zenawi. While I do not regret the choice, it was a painful and soul-searching decision for me at the time.

I was denounced for “selling out” all of those persons unjustly imprisoned by Zenawi in defending his right to speak.

In response to scathing criticism from diverse sectors of the Ethiopian diaspora for defending Zenawi, I subsequently issued my uncompromising explanation:

I have adopted one yardstick for all issues concerning free speech, Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights: ‘Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.’ I underscore the words “everyone” and “regardless of frontiers.

I told my critics, “If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.”

In 2010, I presented profiles in journalistic courage. in Ethiopia.

I have defended foreign media reporting on Ethiopia when they came under attack by the Zenawi regime and criticized them when they failed in their journalistic standards.

In July 2011, I wrote about “Unfreedom of Information” in Ethiopia.

In 2012, I robustly responded to foreign media who called struggling Ethiopian web editors a “disgrace to press freedom”.

In 2012, I exposed the treatment of “The Free Press in Ethiopia’s Kangaroo Kourts”.

In 2015, I tried to answer the question, “When will Africa ever have a free press that is free from harassment, intimidation, incarceration, violence and persecution?”

In May 2017, I defended the right of Ann Coulter, the reviled femme fatale of the American conservative movement, to speak on the campus of the University of California, Berkeley campus.

I then turned my critical pen on UC Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirk for denigrating freedom of expression on his campus by claiming, “This is a university, not a battlefield.” I sternly lectured Chancellor Dirks:

Universities should be battlefields of ideas where open-minded students, armed with reason and facts can joust and prepare themselves for the real world of offensive, outrageous and distasteful ideas. Suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous ideas is but a small price to pay for living in a free society.

In May 2019, I wrote ecstatically, “Behold Press Freedom Shining Bright in Ethiopia!”

Over a quarter of a century ago, I defended the right of Tom Metzger, the American white supremacist, Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan and founder of White Aryan Resistance (WAR) to come to my campus and speak. Though he was ultimately disinvited, I took a big risk in defending his right to speak his racist gibberish as an untenured professor.

The sad irony was the fact that members of WAR a few years earlier had murdered a young Ethiopian college student named Mulugeta Seraw in Portland, OR. It should be easy to imagine how painful it was for me to defend the right of expression of the man who was responsible for causing the murder of one of my people.

When I started practicing law some 27 years ago, one of my first pro bono clients was a young man of uneven temperament who believed relentless disruption and heckling of local government deliberations was part of his First Amendment right to free speech. He would stand up in meetings and lambaste local officials for their “sins” of corruption and lives of debauchery. Thankfully, the matter was resolved in pretrial without any adverse consequence to the client.

I have toiled ceaselessly to help enact legislation in the U.S. Congress to sanction the Zenawi regime for denial and suppression of press and expressive freedoms in Ethiopia, among other things.

Over the past 14 years, I have defended Ethiopian journalists who have suffered persecution and prosecution under the Zenawi-TPLF regime.

I have defended young bloggers and dissidents who have been jailed for simply expressing what’s on their minds.

Freedom of expression is not free. It comes with the price of responsibility. Each person is responsible for the legal consequences of his/her expression.

When I started my Ethiopian human rights advocacy in 2005, after the Meles Massacres in which 196 innocent citizens were slaughtered and nearly 800 wounded for taking to the streets to express themselves, I did not use my pen to call for “eye for an eye”.

It would have been so much easier to spew hateful rhetoric from an ocean away. But in the end that would have produced a nation of blind people.

I decided to fight the Zenawi’s criminals against humanity with the truth and proclaimed my personal struggle and mission as one dedicated to “Speaking truth to (abusers) power.”

It was so much easier to preach the gospel of hate to end ethnic apartheid in Ethiopia. But I chose to preach the path of forgiveness, reconciliation and truth.

I have two deeply held beliefs.

First, the only lasting victory that can be achieved against evil oppression is in a nonviolent struggle for the hearts and minds of people. In 2006, I  wrote:

 I believe we prove the righteousness of our cause not in battlefields soaked in blood and filled with corpses, but in the living hearts and thinking minds of men and women of good will.” We use the weapon of freedom of expression – speech, press, religion, peaceable assembly and petition for grievances — to convince and persuade others to accept our ideas.

Second, there are two ways we can fight those who want to force their ideas on us by instilling fear, anger, hatred, alarm and terror in our hearts and minds. We confront their falsehoods with facts, disinformation with accurate information and expose their lies to the light of truth. Those who seek to incite violence by abusing their freedom of expression must be held to account under the rule of law.

I believe the truth won against the TPLF (LF stands for lie factory), an organization listed today in the Global Terrorism Database.

I cite the foregoing examples not to tell “war stories” but to underscore my long and unwavering commitment to freedom of expression in Ethiopia, America and elsewhere.

Freedom of expression is non-negotiable for me.

But I draw the line.

I draw a bright red line on speech that is intended to incite violence.

There is no place for the children’s rhyme, “Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me.” in the adult world of inflammatory hate-mongering political rhetoric.

Words are more powerful than any weapon made by man.

Hateful words kill. Hateful words cause mass deaths and destruction.

Barely seven decades ago, the world was set on fire because one hateful man and his hate-filled collaborators were able to build a movement based on words of racial hate, superiority and vilification.

Six million innocent people were murdered by hateful words.

Words also heal.

Well over 2.2 billion (nearly one-third of the world’s population) people have found healing in the Word: “In the beginning, there was the Word.”

Using words to terrorize populations, to spread fear and alarm and to propagate messages of hate, disorder and violence using social and traditional media with the intent to cause violence and advance a political or social agenda cannot be interpreted, by any reasonable standard, as  freedom of expression.

Freedom of expression is not a suicide pact

There are those who ignorantly and mistakenly believe freedom of expression includes the freedom to use words to incite violence.

Freedom of expression is not a political or social suicide pact.

I share fully in the view of one of the greatest U.S. Supreme Court Justices, Robert H. Jackson, who argued reasonable restraints on civil liberties are not impairments of the liberty of the citizen:

The choice is not between order and liberty. It is between liberty with order and anarchy without either. There is danger that, if the Court does not temper its doctrinaire logic with a little practical wisdom, it will convert the constitutional Bill of Rights into a suicide pact.

As I explained in my May 2019 commentary, “If we do not temper press freedom with a little practical wisdom, I do not doubt that we will soon convert press freedom into a suicide pact in Ethiopia.”

I believe people have an absolute right to believe or not to believe in whatever they want. No person can be punished for their beliefs, disbeliefs or lack of beliefs. That is a sacred right of personal autonomy.

Conversely, no one has an absolute right to promote his/her beliefs by using words in a manner that can reasonably be anticipated to cause conduct which inflicts physical or psychological harm on others.

The conflict between one’s absolute right to belief and non-absolute right to express those beliefs in conduct, particularly violent conduct, creates the necessity for reasonable, just and fair laws that maximize the individual’s right to expression while minimizing harm to society (other individuals).

I may be biased but I believe the global gold standard for freedom of expression is the United States of America.

America has an enviable yet checkered tradition of expressive freedoms.

There are four reasons that explain the rock-solid status of freedom of expression in America.

First, we have solid constitutional protections for our bundle of expressive freedoms. The First Amendment to the U.S. constitution sweepingly proclaims, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

The uncompromising language of the First Amendment is stunning in its breadth and scope. What did the Founders of the American Republic have in mind when they wrote, “Congress shall make no law…”?

“Make no law” means make no law. There is no ambiguity in the plainly stated constitutional clause.

The First Amendment plainly bans the ultimate lawmaking authority in the United States, the U.S. Congress, once and for all, from legislating in the area of expressive freedoms.

Over the past century, the U.S. Supreme Court has tempered the uncompromising constitutional language with standards of reasonableness.

Second, the highly independent and intrepid American judiciary, and particularly the United States Supreme Court, has given special and highly favored status to the expressive freedoms listed in the First Amendment even though it has imposed certain limitations.

For the past 100 years, the U.S. Supreme Court has approved federal and state laws that have significantly curtailed freedom of expression despite the broad and sweeping language of the First Amendment.

To give effect to the sweeping language of the First Amendment, the Court has imposed extremely high standards for government regulation of expressive freedoms. The Court has developed legal doctrines, tests and standards by which to distinguish permissible from impermissible speech.

In the landmark case of Brandenburg v. Ohio, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled, “The constitutional guarantees of free speech and free press do not permit a state to forbid or proscribe advocacy of the use of force, or of law violation except where such advocacy is directed to inciting imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.”

The key element in criminal culpability is the speaker’s intent to incite a violation of the law that is both imminent and likely.

Ultimately, the governing standard of freedom of expression or “hate speech and disinformation” in Ethiopia is not going to be the American First Amendment jurisprudence or even the international conventions. The governing standards will be rooted in Ethiopian jurisprudence, politics, society and culture.

Certainly, the legal traditions and civic culture of expressive freedoms in America and elsewhere could be a source of inspiration and useful and practical ideas, just as international legal principles and conventions could offer useful guides.

Third, there are individuals, organizations and private institutions committed to defending freedom of expression at the first sign of threat. For instance, the American Civil Liberties Union has always been in the forefront defending freedom of expression in the United States Supreme Court and has won numerous landmark cases.

Fourth, Americans have a civic culture of tolerating expression of diverse viewpoints and freely engage in the circulation of opinions, ideas, and artistic expression. Freedom of expression is part of the fabric of American society and a fact taken for granted by the average citizen.

The fact of the matter is that there is no one size fits all standard of freedom of expression for all societies. That does not mean there are no universal benchmarks and guidelines by which we can determine the viability of legislation regulating freedom of expression or model a particular legislation.

Indeed, there are.

One such benchmark is Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights: “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.” It is also included in Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Ethiopia became a party by accession in June 1993.

Indeed, when I defended Zenawi’s right to speak at Columbia (see above), I invoked Article 19.

But benchmarks are just the beginning, not the end of the analysis.

The answer to issues related to freedom of expression must come from homegrown legal reform in Ethiopia. The answer must come from Medemer jurisprudence.

David Kaye’s preliminary Assessment of situation of freedom of expression in Ethiopia

Recently, a draft “hate speech and disinformation” proclamation was referred to Ethiopian parliament by the Council of Ministers after extensive public discussion and comment.

Last week, David Kaye, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression issued a preliminary report following his visit to Ethiopia during December 2-9, 2019.

Kaye met with various stakeholders in Ethiopia during his visit including government officials, members of Parliament and the Judiciary, human rights defenders,  academics, civil society leaders, journalists, students and others.

In his “end of mission statement”, Kaye makes a disclaimer that his “preliminary observations highlight — but do not extensively document and analyze — the opportunities and threats for freedom of expression in the current moment in Ethiopia.”

Kaye says the “basket of problems I am describing is deeply political and beyond the scope of my mandate to review fully.”

Kaye says his “evaluation is founded principally on the human right to freedom of expression guaranteed by Articles 19 and 20 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights [Covenant].” He will present his “detailed report on this mission at the 44th session of the Human Rights Council in June 2020.”

Nonetheless, despite such sweeping disclaimers Kaye offers brash and categorical  observation on the situation of freedom of expression in Ethiopia and specifically on the draft proclamation.

In the section below, I aim to highlight some of my general concerns regarding Kaye’s preliminary observation and provide a preliminary response to Kaye’s preliminary report. I shall respond to Kaye’s main observations on the draft proclamation listed below in Part II of my commentary:

The draft ‘Hate Speech and Disinformation Proclamation’ would threaten freedom of expression. As constructed presently, it could reinforce rather than ease ethnic and political tensions.

The Government’s draft Hate Speech and Disinformation Proclamation, which it recently presented to Parliament, goes far beyond the command of Article 20(2) and the limitations on restrictions required by Article 19(3) of the ICCPR. (See my comments in the attached document.)

Unlike other draft legislation proceeding through the Advisory Council, this proclamation was developed outside that process. I am concerned that the draft Proclamation will exacerbate ethnic tension, which in turn may fuel further violence.

Inter-ethnic conflict spurred on by hate speech and disinformation demand not just legal solutions but political ones in which the Government and its opposition pursue reform at each state and district level. Law can support that process, but ultimately political will must exist to allow it to survive and thrive.

The reform process may be at risk from the near-term threat of inter-ethnic politics and the emergence — or at the very least the perceived emergence — of hatred and disinformation as tools of politics.”

There is seeming consensus social and broadcast media are fueling disinformation and hatred.

The Government is obligated under Article 20(2) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights to prohibit by law “advocacy of national, racial and religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility and violence.

The problem of hatred in the media should involve legal steps. But that is only part of the approach, for hate is very much a function of politics and, as such, it requires first and foremost a political, national solution.

Because of the failure to limit the offense by principles of intent, context, and other factors found in the Rabat Plan of Action, by its terms the draft could lead to the criminalization of people who merely re-post or otherwise share content deemed “hate speech” or “disinformation”. The scope of such an approach could be enormous, in particular because the problem of hate speech is often not merely the content but its virality, the ease by which it may be shared by hundreds or thousands of people.

The draft’s excessive vagueness means that officials at the federal and regional level would have practically unbounded discretion to determine whom to investigate and prosecute, leading to an almost certain inconsistency in approach and a potential wave of arbitrary arrests and prosecutions.

Several interlocutors expressed the fear that the law could be used to silence critics. This is not fantasy. Because of the ethnic definition of politics and governance at the national and regional level, it is possible that robust political debate could be penalized under the Proclamation.

While I appreciate Kaye’s “evaluation” of the “situation of freedom of expression” in Ethiopia, I am disappointed by his conclusory, conjectural and overgeneralized observations.

I am disappointed he offers little evidence or analysis to support his conclusions or assertions regarding the draft proclamation except to issue ipse dixit and ex cathedra declarations about the alleged “flaws” in the draft proclamation buffered by sweeping disclaimers.

As a U.N. special rapporteur, Kaye should know that his “preliminary assessment” could potentially have significant impact in public perception of the draft proclamation. Both legal experts and lay persons could be misled by his overgeneralized conclusions.

To the extent, his “end of mission statement” is a preliminary report, Kaye should have carefully and narrowly constructed it to fit the limited purpose of a general overview.

With all due respect, Kaye’s preliminary report shrouded in a disclaimer that he will provide a “detailed report on this mission at the 44th session of the Human Rights Council in June 2020” is a cop out, a hatchet job and an excuse for an unfair hit-and-run operation on the draft proclamation.

My preliminary response to David Kaye’s “preliminary report”

I make several observations on Kaye’s preliminary report.

First, to be perfectly frank, Kaye’s “preliminary report” impresses me as a preview of the “Executive Summary” to his final report to be delivered at the 44th session of the Human Rights Council be delivered in June 2020. It has all the tale-tale signs of an executive summary consisting of a brief statement of the issues and problems, background information, concise analysis and main conclusions. Given the resolutely judgmental position Kaye has taken on the draft proclamation, I cannot imagine how the findings in his final report will be any different than his preliminary report. I can only expect a larger parade-of-horribles about the draft proclamation in the final report.

SecondI am disappointed by the fact that Kaye’s preliminary report is largely generic boilerplate critique of so-called “hate crimes” laws. I have read Kaye’s submission A/74/486 to the General Assembly dated October 9, 2019 and much of the criticism leveled at the draft proclamation is regrettably, and with all due respect to Kaye, a cut-and-paste job from that report or other similar reports. For instance, Kaye’s condemnation of the draft proclamation as “excessively vague” resonates the stock language Kaye included in his Annual Report of the UNHCHR report (p.8) “Anti-incitement laws in countries worldwide can be qualified as heterogeneous, at times excessively narrow or vague.”

There are tired old orthodoxies about freedom of expression which some self-righteous critics seek to impose on non-Western societies by insisting that there is only one benchmark by which to measure freedom of expression. While I subscribe fully to Art. 19 and related articles in the Covenant, I also fully reject the idea there are only a select few oracles of Article 19 who alone can interpret and fix its meaning for all others.

Third, I am disappointed Kaye should take the liberty to make grand and overgeneralized criticisms of the draft proclamation yet avoid critical accountability by hiding behind a wall of disclaimers about the limited scope of his mandate in Ethiopia, the complexity of the Ethiopia political situation, the problems of ethnicity, etc. For instance, Kaye claims the draft proclamation “reinforce[s] rather than ease ethnic and political tensions.” Such an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence but Kaye simply avoids the issue by stating further analysis of the issue is beyond his mandate.

Fourth, I am disappointed that Kaye’s analysis of the draft proclamation is overly academic and with little understanding of the mechanics of the criminal law. This is a common problem among academic lawyers who do not have substantial litigation experience especially in the criminal law. There is a world of difference between legal theory and legal practice in the courtroom.

To be perfectly frank, I am not sure if the “preliminary report” is aimed at the Ethiopian legal community or the 44th session of the Human Rights Council. It appears to me to be the latter. It is my personal observation that the average, or even the above-average Ethiopian judge, prosecutor and defense lawyer in Ethiopia is untutored in the jurisprudence of Articles 19 and 20 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. I would insist on educating them before hectoring them prejudgementally and presumptively that they will misuse, abuse and confuse the draft proclamation after it becomes law.

Perhaps Kaye may not realize it but many in the Ethiopian legal community regard his preliminary report an arrogant, imperious and cavalier criticism of their good faith and good will efforts to address a critical, urgent and emergent problem in their society.

Fifth, I am somewhat confused by Kaye’s discharge of his duties as U.N. special rapporteur. I am fully aware of the mandate of the special rapporteur. But nowhere in the mandate do I discern a quasi-judicial role prescribed for the special rapporteur. I understand rapporteur’s role to be investigative and recommendatory.  What Kaye has done in his preliminary report, in my view, is a thinly disguised condemnation and damnation of the draft proclamation before the final report is even issued.

Sixth, I am disappointed Kaye’s conclusions on the draft proclamation are based on his own (and other “experts” like himself ) ex cathedra “expert” analysis of the “terms” (I suspect plain meaning) of Articles 19 and 20 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. He declares, ipse dixit, the draft proclamation does not pass muster because he said so. Indeed, he makes references to General Assembly resolutions, the work of experts in the Rabat Plan of Action and other sources but cites no other controlling or persuasive legal authority to support his conclusions.

As a defense lawyer, I have made use of experts in civil and criminal cases.

The fact of the matter is that the testimony of experts may be rebutted by testimony from other experts or by other evidence or facts.

If Kaye’s ultimate authority to support his conclusions on the draft proclamation is the expertise and wisdom of a group of designated experts, I am prepared to call other expert witness to rebut their expert opinions.

We could have a “battle of experts”.

Seventh, I am disappointed that Kaye’s “preliminary report” tends to be generally hortatory. Indeed, he makes suggestions about repealing certain sections of the Ethiopia penal code, consultations with regional law enforcement authorities and international human rights organizations, etc., but he offers very little by way of specific suggestions to improve the draft proclamation.

It is easy to talk in broad generalities but Kaye says very little about how the draft proclamation could be immediately cured of the legal diseases of “vagueness” and “overbreadth”.

Eight, I am troubled by Kaye’s sweeping generalizations about the draft proclamation given his caveat:

Combating hate speech is a delicate endeavour, which requires an in-depth knowledge of the local context, proficiency in local languages, and understanding of social and cultural habits, among so many others.

Several dozen languages are spoken in Ethiopia. Given this fact, how does Kaye suggest the draft proclamation be drafted? There is an old Ethiopian saying, “The sky is near to one who is sitting and pointing an index finger.”

Ninth, I am confused by Kaye’s claim “the draft’s excessive vagueness” could result in mass arrests. That is one of his core criticisms of the draft proclamation. I have difficulty discerning the simply vague from the excessively vague.

If Kaye’s position is that the draft proclamation is “excessively vague” because it does not state explicitly and definitely what conduct is punishable, then I strongly disagree. The draft is not vague as I shall demonstrate in Part II of my commentary.

It is also not clear to me what standards of “excessive vagueness” Kaye is using in his analysis of the draft proclamation. He does not say. Is Kaye is using standards of “vagueness” derived from the jurisprudence of the due process clauses of the U.S. Constitution? If he is, he should make it clear that Ethiopia’s draft proclamation fails under American constitutional standards. If he is using an article 19 standard, he should also make it clear.

Kaye further claims the definitions of the offenses “raise[] serious overbreadth concerns under the legality test of Article 19(3).” If Kaye’s argument is the draft proclamation on its face, without application, is so broad as to not make a distinction between speech intended to incite imminent lawlessness as well as other forms of expression critical of the government, I also strongly disagree. Kaye claims there is a “legality test” under Art. 19(3) for overbreadth but he does not make clear the test or the elements of “overbreadth” under Article 19.

I find it curious that Kaye should complain similar criticisms he has offered to ItalyMalaysia, and Singapore have been ignored. Could it be because Kaye’s standard of vagueness is itself “excessively vague”?

Tenth, I am disappointed we must wait for six months to read Kaye’s final report. Be that as it may, I shall continue to study his preliminary report and explore ways of cooperating with him in improving the overall state of freedom of expression in Ethiopia.

With all due respect to Kaye’s work and contributions, I respectfully disagree with him on his “evaluation” of the draft hate crimes and disinformation proclamation. That should not be a surprise to anyone. It is in the nature of the “lawyering business” to disagree on legal issues. This should be regarded as good not only for reforming human rights laws in Ethiopia but also in public education. It is useful to the public to have such open debate on the draft proclamation since we are both interested in improving the human rights situation in Ethiopia.

I hope I can work cooperatively with Kaye in improving the draft proclamation law.

But if that is not possible, when Kaye issues his final report, I will issue my final response on his final report.

We will create an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedom of expression

I proudly join H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed in his declaration that we  “we will create an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedoms of expression.”

I will guarantee we will create an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedoms of expression with or without the assistance of outsiders. I make the iron-clad guarantee based on the following FACTS:

Ethiopia today has a leader whose commitment to freedom of expression is total and unwavering.

Ethiopia today is a nation of young people, some 70 percent of the population is under 35 years of age. The one important thing above all else to young people is freedom of expression because that is the fountainhead of their creativity, political dynamism and economic survival.

Ethiopians living today know for the past 27 years they have suffered and held their heads in shame that their country was the poster country for jailing journalists, for making press freedom and journalism a crime. They will never let that history repeat.

Ethiopia shall soon have a government elected in a free and fair election. The people’s representatives will not sacrifice freedom of expression on the altar of despotism.

Ethiopia has committed intellectuals who will fight for freedom of expression come hell or high water.

Ethiopia has many friends in the international human rights community that will help in ensuring freedom of expression. Many of them have been a vital force in the defense of human rights over the past 27 years. I thank them profusely and appreciate them. I am optimistic they will work constructively with Ethiopian authorities, civil society and legal communities to advance the cause on an equal and good faith basis.

However, I caution them not to be didactic, imperious and haughty in their supportive role. Approaches that are antagonistic, adversarial and could be perceived as disrespectful will not only be unproductive but create a hostile environment and a harsh backlash that will ill-serve the cause of freedom of expression not only in Ethiopia but throughout the continent.

“We are creating an Ethiopia that is second to none in its guarantee of freedoms of expression. We should avoid the path of extremism and division, powered by politics of exclusion.”

To be continued… Part II.

 

The post Hate, Hearts and Minds: “Creating an Ethiopia That is Second to None in Its Guarantee of Freedom of Expression” (Part I) appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News:.

Abiy Ahmed, Vladimir Lenin and the Quest for Peace

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The Nobel laureate has his work cut out for him: protecting beleaguered minorities in Ethiopia.

The Wall Street Journal.
 Opinion

Abiy Ahmed was in a hurry. This year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate surprised his Norwegian hosts when he declined to hold two press conferences and skipped town shortly after delivering his Dec. 10 Nobel lecture. Rising ethnic tensions beckoned the Ethiopian prime minister home.

in a hurry. This year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate surprised his Norwegian hosts when he declined to hold two press conferences and skipped town shortly after delivering his Dec. 10 Nobel lecture. Rising ethnic tensions beckoned the Ethiopian prime minister home.

Mr. Abiy won the Nobel for his “decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea,” but his most important work lies ahead of him. Ethnic conflict is the principal threat to the stability of Ethiopia—Africa’s second-most-populous…

The post Abiy Ahmed, Vladimir Lenin and the Quest for Peace appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News:.

Does Ethiopia really need another Tewodros II?

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December 30, 2019
by Tinbite Yonas
December 30, 2019
by Tinbite Yonas

Many Ethiopians are uneasy at the idea of seeing their beloved country following an administrative structure that empowers the regions and limits the central government. The main reason for this is their dread of the Zemene Mesafint (Era of Princes), a period characterized by perceived lawlessness and chaos, which is imprinted on their collective unconscious.In fact, I argue, it is the sub-conscious abhorrence felt towards this era and the glorification of the extreme reaction taken by Emperor Tewodros II in ‘setting it right’ which is the cause for the political trauma whose vengeful tides have come to lap at crisis-ridden shores once again.

In short, it is our failure to properly resolve the crisis of the Zemene Mesafint, which ran from the mid-1700s for about a century, that continues to haunt us. In the following essay, I will undertake to revisit the Zemene Mesafint and re-examine it in relation to the current political crisis. I will do so based on the framework of Richard Reid’s recent book: ‘Frontiers of Violence in North East Africa’.

The Zemene Mesafint was actually named after the ‘era of the judges’ in the Old Testament, when Israel had no King and ‘every man did that which was right in his own eyes’. Paul Henze suggests amending this verse to read ‘every noble did that which was right in his own eyes’ to more fittingly describe what went on during the era. Overtly defiant regional lords from parts of modern-day Tigray, Amhara and Oromia fought each other and challenged monarchical authority.

The forging of alliances and counter alliances along ethnic lines, frequent inter-regional wars, and absence of strong central authority all strongly resemble the current situation in Ethiopia. Even more striking is how the people’s reaction to inter-ethnic strife and corruption during the era mirrors the rallying behind the new regime today and the demand for strong leadership.

Forceful expression of a deep-lying problem

The crisis evinced in the Era of Princes was actually a forceful expression of a deep- lying problem that had been brewing under the surface during the previous centuries. Reid recognizes the importance of this fact in correctly understanding contemporary Ethiopian politics:

The conflicts which erupted in the 1760s and 1770s were a long time coming. They finally shattered the façade of unity—of political and ethnic homogeneity—much trumpeted at the apex of the medieval Ethiopian state…. The zemene mesafint was the crystallization of many of the evolving crises experienced by the habesha polity dating to the mid-sixteenth century… The processes and dynamics which were unleashed from the late eighteenth century…would come to define the region’s history long after the supposed ‘reunification’ of Ethiopia in the middle of the nineteenth century. The patterns of violence, and the reasons behind such violence, exist to the present day. (p 39)

It was the outcome of the increasingly strained relationship between the central government and the peripheral regions that had eventually grown to create fissures among the empire’s populace. Regional and ethnic identity, which had always been there, increasingly marginalized and subdued under the overarching super culture of the empire’s religio-political narrative, had finally got the chance to reassert itself, rather forcefully, on the political and religious center.

But the Era of the Princes was even more brutal and damaging than the actions of the emperors’ who served to ignite it. The glorification of the excessive and often vengeful actions undertaken by Tewodros II in subduing the regions, should thus be examined in the context of this resentment. And popular demands that call for such Tewodros-like leadership and their potential long-term effects should, in turn, be weighed accordingly.

Skeletons in the closet

Conventional Ethiopian history presents the Zemene Mesafint in the worst possible light. Many of its darker features—massacres, petty feuds between lords, bloody wars—causing havoc among the public may indeed justify such pronouncements. Recently, however, some historians have begun to question whether the extremely negative portrayal of the Zemene Mesafint, by local and foreign historians alike, is in fact, in part, the outcome of personal prejudices and misconceptions.

Although the era certainly entertained significant chaos and turbulence to merit healthy disapproval, the exaggerated condemnation that is evident in the writings of early chroniclers and subsequent historians predisposes us to inquire whether unmerited presuppositions have infiltrated perceptions of the era. Richard Reid tells us:

The Zemene Mesafint, from this perspective, is treated as a form of temporally determined ‘pre-modern savagery’, in much the same way as escalations of violent conflict in the nineteenth century have been regarded in other parts of the continent. (p.39)

But, while the period saw excessive violence and lawlessness, Reid believes it has been mischaracterized to fit preconceived trends and mythological notions:

It is axiomatic to suggest that contemporary European sources must be treated with caution in this context; ‘Western’ observers had a tendency to exaggerate and misunderstand the level of violence they were witnessing, and to emphasize above all else the prevalence of war, or what passed for it, among savage tribes endlessly at one another’s throats. What they were witnessing, in fact, was vicious total war, ruthlessly rational in economic and political terms. (p.43)

Although Reid explored the possible causes for westerners’ biased reports, he doesn’t explicitly mention the preconceptions for the markedly biased assessment of Ethiopian chroniclers and historians. He merely informs us that to the habesha mind, the state of things during the era were ‘against natural order of things’. It is therefore right to ask: “what makes it unnatural?” Was it the numerous wars and unrest that were common during the era, that made it sound ‘unnatural’ to the habesha mindset? To argue this suggests that apart from the ‘accursed’ era (the Zemene Mesafint), Ethiopia had been an island of peace and stability and bloody wars and persecutions were alien to the land.

Anyone who is even faintly familiar with medieval Ethiopian history would acknowledge that this is absurd. Bloody wars and relentless persecutions were common during much of it. Apart from an increased intensity of persecutions and bloodbaths, what changed during the Era of Princes was a difference among those who caused the bloody wars and who ended up with the spoils. What struck a chord among conservative chroniclers and made the Era of Princes ‘unnatural’ was the nobility’s dominance over the monarchy. The periphery had come to overwhelm the center.

Ethiopians at the political and religious center were nurtured from posterity with the idea of a strong monarch forcefully subduing the frontier. Reid traces the origin of this idea to the religio-political myths of Kibre Negastwhich claimed that  “‘the greatness of kings’ was related to possession of a sacred emblem (namely the Ark of the Covenant) and a blood connection with a God-anointed elect.” (p.27)

According to Kibre Negast, the legendary Menilek I:

…waged war wherever he pleaseth, and no man conquered him, but whosoever attacked him was conquered, for Zion himself made the strength of the enemy to be exhausted. But King David II with his armies and all those who obeyed his word, ran by the chariots without pain, hunger or thirst, without sweat and exhaustion.

Consequently, whichever war the king chose to wage was blessed as righteous: “Righteous violence became legitimized through Solomonic mythology and came to occupy a central role in habesha political discourse and action, as real and as vital to nineteenth – and twentieth – century rulers as it was to early Solomonic monarchs” (p.28). Subsequent Solomonic kings strove to live up to the mythical Menilik (I)’s legacy of excessive yet ‘righteous’ violence to expand and subdue the periphery.

As such, the Era of Princes, with the unwelcome reality of autonomous nobles from the periphery exerting influence over the weak monarchs of the center, was indeed an abhorrence, and the idea of loosely connected regions, a sort of proto-federation, was blasphemy. The uncivilized periphery was meant to be subdued and tamed, not operate unchecked at the center, or even develop autonomy.

As such, Reid’s central thesis portrays the medieval and modern history of Ethiopia as the outcome of the unresolved tension and conflict between the center (embodied by authoritarian monarchy) and the periphery (politically and culturally alienated groups of the empire). The center ever strives to use ‘righteous violence’ to subdue the periphery and they in turn become “shifta” or “woyane” and attempt to influence the center by fomenting revolution.

The history of the past several centuries can thus be explained through these un-reconciled dialectics. More importantly, the current political tension between the Unitarian/centripetal and Federalist/centrifugal forces can be seen to be the direct outcome of unsuccessful past attempts to resolve the tension.

National messiah

Absolutist and maximal centrism was further reinforced by the 16th century myth of a forthcoming national king. According to this myth, which probably had its origin in ‘Fikare Iyesus’ and inherited Jewish traditions about the warrior messiah, a messianic figure will emerge from relative anonymity to vanquish the enemies of Ethiopia and restore the country to her rightful place of greatness and prosperity. Peace, glory and joy are assumed to reign in Ethiopia when this glorious figure occupies the throne with some claiming his reign will last a thousand years. This myth is highly popular among the masses and its influence heightens whenever the country enters into crisis. And curiously enough, this messiah-king was foretold to assume the throne name of ‘Tewodros’.

Thus, it is no surprise that this popular yearning for the national messiah reached its peak during the Zemene Mesafint, when the power of the monarchy was undermined and centrifugal forces were causing havoc. It was during this time, when every Abyssinian was dreaming of a Saviour who would take Ethiopia out of this troubled time and ‘restore’ her back to greatness, that Kassa of Quara emerged as the national messiah, taking the throne name of Tewodros:

His very choice of throne name suggested an amalgamation of hubris and insecurity, alluding to a longstanding Orthodox belief that a monarch named Tewodros would come to save the kingdom, and rule for a thousand years. It was a popular fiction, but the historicization of violent conflict was the defining feature of nineteenth century habesha statehood, and was underpinned by ideas about destiny and inheritance. (p.52)

Any form of compromise and diplomacy was thus perceived as a weakness. Leaders occupying the center were urged and pressured by this centuries-old mythology to assume the role of the ‘big man’ and forcefully cleanse what was impure and do away with what was considered an abomination. Any form of negotiation and compromise with the periphery would not do. Only when ‘righteous violence’, legitimized by sacred scrolls and chronicles like the Kibre Negast, was unleashed upon alien usurpers from the frontiers, to put them to their proper place, would the centrists be satisfied.

The widespread euphoria that quickly accompanied Abiy Ahmed in his rise to power and the equally quick and widespread denunciations he received from the populace is yet another sign that the habesha reared from childhood with such unrealistic messianic expectations of political leaders possess neither the patience nor the political maturity to allow leaders to make sober and diplomatically sane decisions.

Conversely, this ‘righteous’ violence breeds dissatisfaction by politically and culturally alienated groups which provides them with just cause and righteous indignation (‘woyane’ comes from the Tigrigna word ‘way ane (ዋይአነ)’ – a cry of indignation) to march on the center.

The ‘liberators’ are quickly welcomed with euphoric acclaims and the vanquished are portrayed in their worst light. Labels such as ‘the dark years’ are tagged to previous regimes and attempts to acknowledge even faint positives are met with outrage. The ‘Zemene Mesafint’ had been portrayed as the ‘dark era’ and Tewodros heralded as the bringer of light. In line with this trend, the Derg, similarly demonized the Imperial era and claimed heroic status for slaying the ‘dragon’. The TPLF-EPRDF regime, for all its anti-centrism rhetoric, followed down this well-trodden path towards vilifying the past and heralding itself as the messiah.

Such unrealistic expectations, bordering on childish narcissism, drive policy decisions and political strategies for generations, further escalating conflict between the center and the periphery. With Abiy’s government following in the footsteps of its forerunners in calling the previous era “27 years of darkness”, the trend does not seem to have changed.

The curious case of Tigray

The tension and conflict between Tigryan elites and political center, which has been casting its shadow on Ethiopian politics for centuries, seems poised to remain as a destabilizing force for some time to come. It is interesting that the Era of Princes was ushered by a Tigrayan noble, Ras Mikael Sehul. His march to Gondar to defeat and execute Emperor Iyoas in 1769 marked the beginning of the Zemene Mesafint. The event almost resembles the ‘decentralization project’ which was witnessed with the coming to power of the Tigrayan based TPLF-led coalition. The TPLF, of course, didn’t receive a formal invitation from the center, as Mikael Sehul did from Etege Mentewab. Yet it did not stop TPLF from considering the centrists’ active rejection of the Derg and their unenthusiastic acceptance of the imminent reality of the new regime to be essentially equivalent.

But the parallels do not stop there. Ras Mikael was then the kingmaker and was able to appoint two emperors, Yohannes II and Teklehaymanot II. This was not too dissimilar to TPLF’s role during the past 27 years. What makes it all the more striking is that Mikael Sehul was defeated and ousted from power by combined Amhara and Oromo nobility. Again, this roughly resembles the combined ‘Oro-mara’ forces which brought Abiy Ahmed to power. History does indeed repeat itself.

This was then followed by the exclusion of Tigrayan nobles from the political arena and the subsequent dominance of imperial politics at Gonder by Oromo nobles—the so-called era of the wara-she/Yejju/rulers. However, the assimilated Yejju Oromos soon started to face opposition from their un-assimilated southern kinsmen on the one hand and resentment from the Amhara of Gondar and Gojjam on the other. Again this almost mirrors the current tension Abiy’s regime is experiencing; torn between the unionist Amharas and ethnic extremist Oromos especially over the thorny question of Addis Ababa. This state of fragmentation and continual wars was to last until the coming to power of Tewodros II.

The formation of the new Prosperity Party and the inevitable exclusion of TPLF—and presumably of the Tigrayan people—from Ethiopian politics seems set to bring about the re-enactment of this violent historical tension between Tigray and the center. But excluding Tigray did not work before. It only served to breed resentment among Tigrayans and end up in initiating episodic revolutions with varying degrees of success. Yohannes IV’s rise to power and the first and second Woyane rebellions were all empowered by the resilient belief that Tigray did not receive appropriate recognition as the cultural and political co-founder of Ethiopia. There were thus forceful reactions to exclusions from the center.

It is noteworthy that in all three cases none of these movements emerging from Tigray attempted either to culturally dominate or declare complete autonomy from the center. Yohannes IV, although he reigned from Tigray, refrained from imposing Tigrigna language and culture on the rest of the country. The first Woyane rebellion of 1943, similarly, remained Pan-Ethiopian, merely content on seeking autonomous self-administration ‘under the Ethiopian flag’. The second Woyane launched the EPRDF.  All three in effect endorsed federal type arrangements.

This shows the defensive type of ethnic identity that lies at the center of Tigrayan politics. This is in sharp contrast to certain aggressive elements among other ethnic groups who have sought to impose their culture and identity over others. Anti-Tigrayan sentiments put forward by some quarters need to note this virtuous aspect and temper their criticisms accordingly. On the other hand, the recent movement by certain sections of Tigrayan politicians to split Tigray from Ethiopia should also recognize the deeply Ethiopian character of Tigrayan identity and previous resistance movements, and consequently re-orient their efforts to combat perceived and apparent injustices within the national political space.

History at a crossroads?

The question is whether Abiy Ahmed will back-track and ‘cave in’ or will he embrace centrists’ expectations and strive to fill Tewodros’ messianic role, thereby continuing the vicious cycle of excessive centrism and reactive revolution? Indeed, his swift, albeit veiled actions to deal with potentially rebellious regional leaders are reminiscent of Tewodros II’s attempt to quash the princes and end the Zemene Mesafint. Without fanfare, he appears to have succeeded in making all but two of the regions subservient to his rule.

Popular centrist expectations, leading many to hang Abiy’s photo alongside that of Tewodros, may present ominous temptations to the newcomer and may cause alarm among critics that another authoritarian leader is at the helm. However, while he may have initially played on such popular fantasies and appeared to subtly condone such associations, as morally ambiguous as they may be, it is doubtful if Abiy entertained their use beyond the means to reach power.

So far Abiy seems to have resisted the urge to take manifestly hostile actions, especially against overtly defiant regions like Tigray. This may be because he may have doubted his success; or he may be waiting for the appropriate time. Equally, it shows populism has not driven him towards losing his reason; in fact, his approach so far resembles more that of the cautious Haile Selassie I than the hot-headed Tewodros II.

Reconciliation that excludes Tigray will not endure

Yet Abiy would do well to note that even Haile Selassie’s diplomatic prowess and veiled tactics did not prevent resentment boiling over in the form of the Woyane rebellion of 1943. While it may have eventually been subdued, the Woyane rebellion served to entrench animosity among Tigrayans, which eventually brought about the TPLF insurgency. This shows that even overt pacifism is not enough as long as true autonomy of regions is being eroded. The only way out would be to recognize and grant true autonomy for regions and work towards an all-inclusive political platform at the federal level. It is ironic, however, that regions such as Tigray are exercising their greatest autonomy today under a leader who is suspected of the intent to undermine their right to self-rule.

It remains to be seen whether or not the Tigrayan elite will follow the post-Mikael Sehul track and choose a path of political alienation and passive resistance to centrist encroachment until another indignation (‘way-ane’) prompts them to episodic rebellion.

On the other hand, Oromo and Amhara elites need to recognize that any reconciliation that excludes Tigray will not endure. While the numbers game might initially make it seem that Tigray would not pose a threat, the overall situation would merely create another center-frontier tension which, through time, could provoke further embitterment on the part of the excluded and end up in some form of rebellion that might potentially undermine the unity of the country.

History shows us the futility of such actions as, ironically, Abiy’s present rise to power is the outcome of a reaction to such exclusion. Thus, the subtle yet apparent attempts to take TPLF—and Tigray by default—out of the political game by moulding the EPRDF into a single party needs to take into account such far-reaching consequences. After all, ‘medemer’ (as ‘inclusivity’) must not be interpreted to mean unity against Tegaru, but must be sincere enough to include all Ethiopians for it to bring about a true and lasting solution for Ethiopia’s political conundrum.

Reflection time

Equally, the Tigrayan elite need to make a sober assessment of the past 27 years. They need to recognize that, although there were remarkable contributions in terms of infrastructure development and empowering previously suppressed ethnic groups, the TPLF has been wrongfully dominating the political and economic platform. For such a resistance ideology, which built its reputation upon the assertion that the Amhara elite had been unjustly dominating the political and economic platform earlier, it would be ironic not to recognize that the Tigrayan elite had themselves been doing the same for the past two decades. Thus, they need to understand that such disproportional activity , though blown out of proportion for their political agenda by unionist elements, genuinely bruised other nationalities and caused real embitterment. Honest reflection and acknowledgement of this fact should start the process towards reconciliation.

Moreover, TPLF and other ethnic based groups need to acknowledge that the ‘wuhud /assimilated/’ are a major force to be reckoned with and give them their due recognition. There is a huge segment of the overall population that has been assimilated and does not profess any ties to conventional ethnic groups. They should not be rejected or stigmatized for not having an ethnic identity. They have the right to exist and develop their ‘non-ethnic’ identity without being forced to adopt ethnic titles to which they have no attachment. So far centrifugal forces have either turned a blind eye to their existence or resorted to trivial name calling and belittlement. Merely calling them ‘Amharized’, ‘mehal-sefaris’/moderates/ or ‘keyet‘ is not going to dissolve them into non-existence.

Political ideology needs to stop demonizing centripetal forces and acknowledge that they are the legitimate representatives of this segment who need a voice as much as un-assimilated ethnic groups. I believe amendments that recognize such groups need to be considered within the federal constitution. There should be laws that guarantee the rights of assimilated groups just as much as their ethnically affiliated fellow citizens. The controversial case of Addis Ababa also needs to be revisited from this perspective. As such, the rights of Addis Ababans, who do possess distinct non-ethnic identity and shared cultural values, for self-determination and self-governance should be affirmed.

I believe ‘Team Lemma’ (or whatever is left of it) has used the anti-TPLF card for far too long. Although some might regard their initial anti-TPLF rallying call as justifiable to bring about the change of regime, anyone would recognize the extent and duration of this propaganda has outdated its agenda and is now threatening to defeat the purpose. The creation of a siege mentality may work for a while but apart from the fact that it is not going (economically speaking) ‘to bake the bread’, it will inevitably  have negative consequences in the long term.

In fact, this is already starting to appear. Though intended or not, anti-TPLF remarks have been widely expanded into anti-Tigrayan reactions by the populace. This, in turn, is invoking widespread anti-nationalist and secessionist movements among the Tigrayans. Some may underestimate such tendencies with oversimplified assumptions about the capacity of the region to stand on its own, and consequently downplay their viability.

That is beside the point. The federation, as it stands, cannot withstand another secessionist impulse, no matter how supposedly insignificant the region may be. Ethiopia barely survived Eritrean secession in 1993 with Oromo and Somali separatists demanding similar treatment and almost getting away with it. Another such debacle would risk severing the very chord holding the country together.

This is the author’s viewpoint. However, Ethiopian Registrar will correct clear factual errors.


 

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The Benefits and Risks of Ethiopia’s Massive Loans –The past as a guide in utilizing loans

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Aklog Birara (Dr.)

“The ugly reality is that most poor people in most poor countries most of the time never receive or even make contact with aid in any tangible shaper or form: whether it is present or absent, increased or decreased, are thus issues that are simply irrelevant to the ways in which they conduct their daily lives.”
Graham Hancock, Lords of Poverty

Part II of V

Aklog Birara (Dr.)

In Part I, I expressed my personal appreciation and commended Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed for his Nobel Prize win. This win is part of a larger and more complex set of issues. In a valuable commentary “Abiy Ahmed, Vladimir Lenin and the Quest for Peace” released on December 29, 2019, the Wall Street Journal pinpointed the formidable and interactable challenges Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed faces in his homeland.

 

“Abiy won the Nobel for his “decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea,” but his most important work lies ahead of him. Ethnic conflict is the principal threat to the stability of Ethiopia—Africa’s second-most-populous country, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and a critical U.S. counterterrorism partner.”

For decades now, I have been arguing that Ethiopia’s ethnic-federal system imposed on the Ethiopian people by the TPLF dominated regime puts the country in a permanent cycle of conflict and suspense. As the Journal notes aptly “And the country’s constitution exacerbates the problem. To stave off disaster, Mr. Abiy must reverse decades of ethnic exclusion, reinforce pan-Ethiopian identity, and reform a flawed federal system. He must also banish the ghost of Vladimir Lenin.”

Ethiopia is neither federal nor democratic. “The 1995 constitution has reinforced differences among” Ethiopia’s 85 plus ethnic groups “by dividing the country into nine ethnically defined regional states. Now that Mr. Abiy has called for elections and lifted restrictions on freedom of expression, ethnonationalists among the regionally dominant groups are feeling emboldened. Some are violent. Minorities in the nine ethnic states have good reason to fear the tyranny of the majority: Nearly three million Ethiopians fled their homes in 2018. That’s more than were internally displaced due to conflict in Syria, Somalia and Nigeria combined last year.”

As the Norwegian Political Scientist Lovise Aalen put it succinctly, “Ethnic federalism is “a very problematic model for any multiethnic society.” Among other things, it does not empower citizens at all. It divides and marginalizes them. Instead, “The federal structure empowers regionally dominant groups like the Oromo (34% of Ethiopia’s population) and the Amhara (27%), giving them little reason to compromise with ethnic minorities or migrants who’ve left their home region.” Even within ethnic based regional states, power and resources grab has begun to escalate. Identity based conflicts have mushroomed everywhere thereby creating chaos and disorder throughout the country. Unable to preserve peace and security, federal authorities are in firefighting mode quelling one unrest in one location while another ethnic and or religious conflict erupts somewhere else.

I agree with Professor Asnake Kefale of Addis Ababa University who says rightly that “Unlike any other constitution, Ethiopia’s “allows self-determination up to secession.” I had opined several times that Ethiopia’s constitution won’t hold the country together; and had warned against the potential danger of Balkanization in the same manner as that of former Yugoslavia. The TPLF and its allies, the OLF and EPLF made a deliberate and strategic decision to establish ethnic federalism. The intent was to leverage TPLF’s minority stratus and to exercise political and economic hegemony. By all accounts this plot worked.

The impact of the Apartheid-like ethnic federal system on the ground continues to be horrific. Ethnic cleansing, whole sale massacres of Amhara, Annuak, indigenous people in the Omo valley and others, displacements of millions of people from their homes and properties, denigration and forcible evictions based on ethnic and religious affiliation, hatred and use of inflammatory language revenge and retaliation and the propagation of false and misleading narratives to shape the future, etc., etc. have been normalized.

However, this TPLF-led minority ethnic-based hegemony is no longer the case. The political and organizational structures that the TPLF created are, nevertheless, relatively intact. Newly emerging political and economic aspirants and elites are fighting among themselves for influence and control. This is compounded by external pressure, most prominently from Egypt.

“Ethiopian ethnic federalism presents a historical puzzle: Why would an ethnically diverse country adopt such a constitution, especially a few years after the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia fell apart?” asks the Journal.

It is painful for those of us who believe in Ethiopia’s long and distinguished past and promising future to understand why the TPLF, OLF and EPLF adopted a Constitution that allows secession for a country that served as a beacon of independence for all non-white peoples. Part of Abiy’s challenge is to undo this harm. As an African proverb puts it, “It takes a village to raise a child.” It takes all of us to navigate Ethiopia’s dangerous political landmines and save it from collapse.

As critical, I find it unfathomable that, almost 30 years after the ethnic-based system proved harmful and divisive, those who lost power and others aspiring it continue to drum up support for its continuity. It seems that political elites have learned almost nothing from the past.

Its is against this unsettled and uncertain political picture that foreign aid, including substantial loans must be assessed. For Ethiopia to optimize the full benefits of aid, first and foremost it must have peace and consensus on the country’s future. All its citizens must enjoy personal security. They must enjoy freedom to live, work, move, own personal property and establish enterprise in any part of the country.

Part II of these five parts series deals with what I call “Peace Dividends.” In the light of Ethiopia’s contentious loans and credits history over the past 28 years, I shall diagnose the potential benefits and risks of substantial loans in the amount of $9 billion that Prime Minister Dr. Abiy’s government announced. The Prime Minister was recognized” for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.” Peaceful coexistence with neighbors has developmental values and impact.

I opine here that Abiy’s achievement is widely recognized by the global community, including multilateral donors. This is the reason I called the loans “peace dividends.”  Peace is a multifaceted and essential ingredient in advancing sustainable and equitable development. This leads me to the equally important and dire socioeconomic condition of Ethiopia’s 115 million people whose future prosperity depends on their freedom and empowerment. Increase in domestic product alone does not portray welfare and wellbeing.

What matters most is the capacity of individuals and families to meet basic needs on a sustainable manner; and to improve their condition year after year.

In this connection, most educated Ethiopians and especially elites and so-called foreign experts seem to have forgotten Ethiopia’s dark and debilitating times under the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its ethnic coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that governed Ethiopia for 27 years. Despite harsh realities on the ground, Ethiopia was identified as one of the “fastest growing economies” in the world. At the same time, Ethiopians were treated brutally and harshly. Tens of millions of Ethiopian youth remained unemployed and underemployed. An untold number of Ethiopians, especially youth, perished. Hundreds of thousands left Ethiopia in search of opportunities abroad. Dozens were hacked to death in Libya; and large numbers died on the way to the Middle East and in the brutal Sahara Desert on their way to Europe.

One can’t forget the one hundred thousand plus Ethiopians who were expelled from Saudi Arabia. An estimated 750, 000 migrant workers live in Saudi Arabia. Tens of thousands are stranded in war-torn Yemen. They left because of a desire to improve their lives.

Beware of Ethiopia’s Mafia-like Network of thieves!

Against these cruel and punishing conditions that lasted for almost three decades, the TPLF dominated regime received and squandered massive amounts of loans and grants. Party, state and government operated in tandem and created a Mafia-like network that plundered Ethiopian society. The corrosive and demoralizing effects of institutionalized plunder are still being felt today. Abiy’s government is therefore not the first one that received massive loans. By comparison it is small.

The question in my mind is “Can Abiy’s government do better?”

The measurement I want to use is the extent to which Ethiopia’s current government plans to deploy loans, grants, remittances and foreign direct investments (FDI) so that Ethiopia generates millions of jobs for its youth and for females; empowers and unleashes its domestic private sector with a deliberate vision and plan to make it globally competitive; accelerates the modernization of the agricultural and pastoral sectors; reduces unnecessary imports through import substitution schemes; criminalizes all forms of bribery, commissions, waste, corruption and illicit outflow of capital;  identifies all forms of borrowing and renegotiates its massive debts or seeks debt forgiveness; and demands that the stolen billions of dollars in foreign destinations are remitted back to Ethiopian society as soon as possible.

I remind the reader to note that the largesse extended to the TPLF-dominated regime was squandered, stolen; and tens of billions of dollars were taken out of the country. Ethiopians were left with massive debt. This is why the IMF, the World Bank, the governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others extended loans to Ethiopia. Loans are not free goods. By definition, loans are repayable at one point; and in one form or another.

I have doubts about optimal use. This is because the current loans are given against a background of institutionalized and normalized party, government, state and private individual theft, robbery, corruption and massive illicit outflow of precious capital (የቀን ጅቦች ተብሎ የሚጠራው).  What institutional mechanisms are in place to mitigate risk?

How was theft, graft and corruption possible?

For one, there was ample capital to steal and to hide. By the time the reform process began two years ago, this organized theft left millions destitute. Ethiopia’s middle class was crushed by rising costs that went up by 20 percent last year alone.  Ethiopia’s national treasury was left virtually empty.

Second, there was no oversight.

Ironically, the 1990s and the early decade and half of the 21st century Ethiopia received tens of billions of dollars in bilateral and multilateral aid, including grants. The United States alone granted Ethiopia between $20 and $30 billion. A major American newspaper reported at one point that almost all of it was siphoned off by party state and government thieves. Imagine how many factories the stolen billions would have built. Imagine how may jobs these factories would have created.

Why import substitute matters

Imagine that these monies could have enabled Ethiopia to establish factories that would produce and sell edible oil to Ethiopian consumers. Instead, Ethiopia spends at least $600 million per year for edible oil alone. A further $700 million per year is spent to import wheat. There is no accurate data that can tell us the true picture; and guide policy.

There is some good news. I am delighted to hear and learn that Sheikh Al-Amoudi is establishing a factory that will produce and sell edible oil. I do hope and pray that this is a trend in import substitution that Ethiopia needs urgently. I underscore the dual benefits of generating employment and providing consumables to Ethiopians.

How to lie with statistics

On December 17, 2019, Reuters did an outstanding piece under the title “Ethiopia’s Surveillance Network Crumbles, Meaning Less Fear and Less Control.” It quotes Getachew Reda, former Minister of Information who admitted thus. “We lied left and right” and gave false and fake statistical data on practically everything, including production rates. To his credit, he acknowledged the damage. “That is why people got angry” and revolted against the regime and overthrew it. The question many Ethiopians are asking is this. “Is the replacement better?” Have officials ceased lying with data?

Remember that the “One to Five” surveillance network that is disintegrating faster than its creators thought possible had exaggerated growth rates and the welfare of the population; had propagated the notion of transparency and accountability in a country where these principles were non-existent etc. The regime denied theft, graft, corruption and illicit outflow with vigor and success. Donors never questioned this phenomenon. Has the narrative changed?

At one point the World Bank had questioned the government of Ethiopia in general and the National Bank in particular why they were underreporting remittances. The reason is simple. The regime wanted to receive more foreign exchange and under reporting remittances was part of fake statistics.

Independent Institutional Oversight is Imperative

The governing party, the state and government borrowed foreign exchange and spent it at will without any institutional mechanism to check and to assess benefits and risks. Financial and monetary data was underreported. It was made opaque intentionally. Massive theft, graft and waste is real. It is morally and ethically corrosive and destabilizing. The greatest damage is borne by the poorest of the poor and by the middle class.

As the captioned quote illustrates, the poor are never in the loop when it comes to aid. The irony is that aid is given to alleviate poverty. How do you alleviate poverty without engaging the poor? How do you justify aid year after year for more than 50 years without creating resiliency?

Evidence shows that, despite waste and theft, Ethiopia became one of the largest recipients of foreign aid under the TPLF regime.  In theory at least, this massive inflow of capital should have induced substantial employment and increased productivity; and should have created a large middle class. Ethiopia should have achieved food self-sufficiency. Ethiopia produces sesame but imports edible oil.

Massive foreign exchange inflow, including remittances created a handful of millionaires and possible paper billionaires in one of the poorest, starved and unhealthiest countries on the planet. The rich build lavish homes; construct formidable fences using imported iron bars to protect themselves against the very people who made them rich; and live in constant fear for their own personal safety and for the safety of their families.

I had seen identical enclaves in Brazil and Venezuela. The few with financial means remit and hide their financial assets overseas for a number of reasons.

  1. To protect their wealth assets from prying journalists, civil society and public officials.

 

  1. To avoid taxation.

 

  1. To finance and support their children’s education in foreign places and to ensure their long-term security.

 

  1. To invest in reliable and secure properties such as houses, apartments, condos, groceries, eating places and the like.

 

  1. To avail themselves of liquidity in the event of sickness and change in government.

Do Ethiopia’s rich have social responsibility?

Yes; they do. I remember once on a mission to Indonesia talking with a colleague there what corrupt Indonesian officials and private persons do with their riches. He asked me “Do you see that bridge over there?” I said, of course. The man who built it is a crook; but a good crook. He posed another question. “Do you know who owns the factory that produces the beautiful silk dresses and batiks that you and other foreign visitors buy here? The factory and numerous others like it employ hundreds of thousands of Indonesians, most of them females. The public knows that Indonesia is a corrupt country. But those who are corrupt have a redeeming quality. They invest their wealth, produce goods and provide employment.”

His depiction left me speechless. The contrast between Indonesia and most of Sub-Saharan Africa is huge. The lesson I gained is this. If you steal and or if you are corrupt, at least invest your riches in productive enterprises within your own country. After all, the money you stole belongs to the society you robbed.

This is hardly the case in Ethiopia or in the rest of Africa.

I leave you to ponder the following questions.

  • What did the rich and super rich produce? What is the source of their wealth?
  • Did they build factories that employ thousands of youth, including females?
  • Which of Ethiopia’s consumer goods did they produce for the domestic market?
  • What structural transformation did they bring?
  • Did the well to do dig wells or construct water kiosks similar to what rich Kenyans did in their villages?
  • Did the rich and superrich build schools in their home towns so that deserving children would attend schools close to their homes?
  • Did the well to-do, instead, send their children overseas to acquire their education so that they could be ahead of their peers and govern the poor?
  • Did they promote the right moral, ethical values and standards?
  • What proportion of their wealth did they contribute for charitable purposes?
  • Does pumping more loans into the Ethiopian economy without a clear vision of where the money is invested and for what make sense?

Part III of V: The Benefits and Risks of Ethiopia’s Massive Loans—The past as a guide in utilizing loans—will be posted next week. 12/30/2019

Hate, Hearts and Minds: “Creating an Ethiopia That is Second to None in Its Guarantee of Freedom of Expression” (Part II)

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By Prof. Alemayehu G, Mariam

Now the other myth that gets around is the idea that legislation cannot really solve the problem and that it has no great role to play in this period of social change because you’ve got to change the heart and you can’t change the heart through legislation. You can’t legislate morals. The job must be done through education and religion. Well, there’s half-truth involved here. Certainly, if the problem is to be solved then in the final sense, hearts must be changed. Religion and education must play a great role in changing the heart. But we must go on to say that while it may be true that morality cannot be legislated, behavior can be regulated. It may be true that the law cannot change the heart but it can restrain the heartless. It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me but it can keep him from lynching me and I think that is pretty important, also. So there is a need for executive orders. There is a need for judicial decrees. There is a need for civil rights legislation on the local scale within states and on the national scale from the federal government. [Emphasis added]

— Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s address at Western Michigan University, December 18, 1963,

Hate speech is a function and symptom of politics, a tool used to mobilize supporters in a country whose organizational structures center on ethnic identity. As such, no law alone can address the potential of hatred, or even disinformation, to be used to rally one’s supporters. What is needed is not necessarily more law but more speech— that is, more professional sources of verifiable information — and a broad and deep national dialogue aimed at creating an agreed process for addressing grievances and building democratic institutions.

— David Kaye, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Freedom of Opinion and Expression, “End of Mission Statement”, December 2019. [Emphasis added.]

What Kaye is dismissively saying about the draft a proclamation aimed at controlling the lawless driven by hate was addressed long ago by Dr. King when he talked about the necessity of laws to deal with the heartless.  It is true that legislation will not solve the problems of hate speech, “in the final sense, hearts must be changed.” But there is a need for laws, proclamations, legislation and  judicial decrees to stop those who would use speech to incite the lynching of others because of their ethnicity, religion or language. There is a need for legislation on the local scale within the “kilils” and on the national scale from the federal government to deal with hate speech and disinformation.

— Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note:

David Kaye, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to freedom of opinion and expression recently issued an “End of Mission Statement” [hereinafter “preliminary report”] on the “situation of freedom of opinion and expression in Ethiopia today.”

In Part I of this commentary, I discussed my personal philosophy and experience in defense of freedom of expression and my reservations about David Kaye’s “preliminary report”.

In Part II here, I shall discuss the technical aspects of the draft “hate speech and disinformation proclamation” currently before the Ethiopian House of Peoples’ Representatives [hereinafter “parliament”] and issue a broad challenge to Kaye and others interested in defending and promoting freedom of expression in Ethiopia to join hands in good will and good faith and help refine the current draft into a model “hate speech and disinformation” law for Africa, and possibly the world.

In concluding Part I, I expressed my hope to “work cooperatively with Kaye in improving the draft proclamation.”

I have reached out to Kaye but have not heard from him. Regardless, my view is that if we cannot agree to work together, we can agree to disagree without being disagreeable.

Aah! The good old days of making “flawless”, “perfect” laws in Ethiopia!

Not long ago, Ethiopian “leaders” openly and unabashedly claimed they made “perfect” laws.

The late boss of the TPLF crime family, Meles Zenawi, in January 2012 described his anti-terrorism diktat (Anti-Terrorism Proclamation No.652/2009) not only as the best in the world but also “flawless”. In other words, Zenawi had written the “perfect” anti-terrorism law!

Zenawi offered the following description (video of Meles’ statement to “parliament in Amharic, author’s translation below) of his “flawless” anti-terrorism law: 

In drafting our anti-terrorism law, we copied word-for-word the very best anti-terrorism laws in the world. We took from America, England and the European model anti-terrorism laws. It is from these three sources that we have drafted our anti-terrorism law. From these, we have choosen the better ones.  For instance, in all of these laws, an organization is deemed to be terrorist by the executive branch. We improved it by saying it is not good for the executive to make that determination. We took the definition of terrorism word-by-word. Not one word was changed. Not even a comma. It is taken word-by-word. There is a reason why we took it word-by-word. First, these people have experience in democratic governance. Because they have experience, there is no shame  if we learn or take from them. Learning from a good teacher is useful not harmful.  Nothing embarrassing about it. The [anti-terrorism] proclamation in every respect is flawless. It is better than the best anti-terrorism laws [in the world] but not less than any one of them in any way… 

When I heard Meles Zenawi saying these words on video, I was not sure if I should laugh or cry. It hurt too much to laugh.

Meles Zenawi believed by wholesale plagiarism, cherry picking words, phrases, sentences and clauses from the “anti-terrorism” laws of different countries, he could craft a “flawless” law for himself.

At the time, I tried to tutor Zenawi that though imitation may best the highest form of flattery, to boldly claim that a mindlessly patched diktat as “flawless” is just mindless.

I tried to explain to him on his level that his cut-and-paste anti-terrorism law could be likened to creating an imaginary biological creature that bests the king of the jungle:

One cannot create a lion by piecing together the sturdy long neck of the giraffe with the strong  jaws of a hyena, the fast limbs of the cheetah and the massive trunk of the elephant. The king of the jungle is an altogether different beast. In the same vein, one cannot clone pieces of anti-terrorism laws from everywhere onto a diktat and sanctify it as “flawless in every respect”.

The fact of the matter is that Zenawi weaponized his “flawless” anti-terrorism law to jail journalists wholesale, persecute dissenters, shutter newspapers and create a climate of fear and loathing in the country.

The draft “hate speech and disinformation” proclamation [author’s translation: “Hate Speech and Disinformation Prevention and Suppression Proclamation”; the author is not aware of any official English version of the draft proclamation] currently before   parliament is not a “flawless” or “perfect” law. However, it is a narrowly drafted proclamation aimed at the prevention and penalization of speech reasonably likely to incite violence and lawlessness and dissemination of false information within the existing framework of Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

It is regrettable David Kaye finds little that is socially redeeming in the draft proclamation. He declares it DOA (dead on arrival) for “excessive vagueness” and “overbreadth” at the altar of Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

Kaye’s final word on the draft proclamation is, “What is needed is not necessarily more law but more speech.”

More hate speech and disinformation!?

David Kaye’s “End of Mission Statement” or parade-of-horribles about the draft proclamation?

In his “End of Mission Statement”, David Kaye trots out a parade-of-horribles about the draft “hate speech and disinformation” proclamation:

The draft ‘Hate Speech and Disinformation Proclamation’ would threaten freedom of expression. As constructed presently, it could reinforce rather than ease ethnic and political tensions.

The Government’s draft Hate Speech and Disinformation Proclamation, which it recently presented to Parliament, goes far beyond the command of Article 20(2) and the limitations on restrictions required by Article 19(3) of the ICCPR. (See my comments in the attached document.)

Unlike other draft legislation proceeding through the Advisory Council, this proclamation was developed outside that process. I am concerned that the draft Proclamation will exacerbate ethnic tension, which in turn may fuel further violence.

Inter-ethnic conflict spurred on by hate speech and disinformation demand not just legal solutions but political ones in which the Government and its opposition pursue reform at each state and district level. Law can support that process, but ultimately political will must exist to allow it to survive and thrive.

The reform process may be at risk from the near-term threat of inter-ethnic politics and the emergence — or at the very least the perceived emergence — of hatred and disinformation as tools of politics.”

There is seeming consensus social and broadcast media are fueling disinformation and hatred.

The Government is obligated under Article 20(2) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights to prohibit by law “advocacy of national, racial and religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility and violence.

The problem of hatred in the media should involve legal steps. But that is only part of the approach, for hate is very much a function of politics and, as such, it requires first and foremost a political, national solution.

Because of the failure to limit the offense by principles of intent, context, and other factors found in the Rabat Plan of Action, by its terms the draft could lead to the criminalization of people who merely re-post or otherwise share content deemed “hate speech” or “disinformation”. The scope of such an approach could be enormous, in particular because the problem of hate speech is often not merely the content but its virality, the ease by which it may be shared by hundreds or thousands of people.

The draft’s excessive vagueness means that officials at the federal and regional level would have practically unbounded discretion to determine whom to investigate and prosecute, leading to an almost certain inconsistency in approach and a potential wave of arbitrary arrests and prosecutions.

Several interlocutors expressed the fear that the law could be used to silence critics. This is not fantasy. Because of the ethnic definition of politics and governance at the national and regional level, it is possible that robust political debate could be penalized under the Proclamation.

An old Ethiopian proverb: “The sky is near for those who sit and point an index finger”.

I have presented ten reasons highlighting my reservations about Kaye’s “end of mission statement” in Part I of my commentary and will not rehash them here.

However, I find several things curious about Kaye’s parade-of-horribles.

Kaye has been a U.N special rapporteur since 2014. Indeed, he claims, “My mandate has undertaken considerable study of the human rights law pertaining to hate speech and disinformation, and by this informal comment I wish to share with you some of that work.”

Manifestly, Kaye has vast knowledge and experience in human rights law and from  previous reports he has issued, it is abundantly clear that he has “evaluated” similar laws and proclamations in a number of other countries.

It seems obvious to me that if there is anyone who can fix a broken “hate crimes and disinformation” law, Kaye would be one of the very few people in the world who could.

With all due respect to Kaye, to me Kaye sounds like a broken record talking over and over about how other countries he had evaluated have drafted “excessively narrow and vague” and “overbroad” laws.

All countries Kaye has “evaluated” got it wrong on drafting “hate speech and disinformation laws!

After reviewing Italy’s law, Kaye concluded:

I am concerned that the Protocol is incompatible with the standards of international human rights law. I am concerned that the restrictions on “fake news” established by the Protocol are inconsistent with the criteria of legality, necessity and proportionality under article 19(3) of the ICCPR…

I am concerned that the Protocol would disproportionately suppress a wide range of expressive conduct essential to a democratic society, including criticism of the government, news reporting, political campaigning and the expression of unpopular, controversial or minority opinions.

After reviewing Malaysia’s law, Kaye concluded:

Section 3 of the Act broadly criminalizes any act with a “seditious tendency”, including any act that conjures feelings of “hatred”, “contempt”, “disaffection”, “discontent”, “ill will”, or “hostility”. I remain concerned that the vague language of the Sedition Act could result in disproportionate restrictions on freedom of expression…

The broad remit of the Sedition Act confers excessive discretion on the Government to suppress criticism, political campaigning or the expression of unpopular, controversial or minority opinions…

Section 233’s broad criminalization of online content is a disproportionate restriction on freedom of expression. The use of subjective terms such as “indecent”, “obscene”, “false”, “menacing”, or “offensive” gives the Government largely unfettered discretion to target government criticism or unpopular or controversial opinions.

After reviewing Singapore’s draft law, Kaye concluded:

I am concerned that the Bill, if adopted, would be incompatible with international human rights law… I am concerned that the Bill confers on select executive officials excessive authority to restrict, censor and punish online expression it designates as “false,” with limited opportunity for appeal.

[The] Bill gives Ministers virtually unfettered discretion to label and restrict expression they disagree with as “false statements of fact.”

The criminal penalties that may be imposed for the communication of a ‘false statement of fact’ or the failure to comply with a Direction also heighten the risk of censorship and government overreach. The broad discretion afforded to select executive officials to police ‘false statement[s] of fact,’ coupled with the threat of heavy fines and custodial sentences, is likely to create a significant chilling effect on freedom of expression.

After reviewing Ethiopia’s draft law, Kaye concluded:

The draft’s excessive vagueness means that officials at the federal and regional level would have practically unbounded discretion to determine whom to investigate and prosecute, leading to an almost certain inconsistency in approach and a potential wave of arbitrary arrests and prosecutions.

Because of the failure to limit the offense by principles of intent, context, and other factors found in the Rabat Plan of Action, by its terms the draft could lead to the criminalization of people who merely re-post or otherwise share content deemed “hate speech” or “disinformation”.

Show us the right way to do it!

In the movie “Jerry Maguire”, the lackluster sports agent wants to convince his client to stay with him. But the client unimpressed by his agent’s cheap talk declares, “Show me the money.”

I say to Kaye, “Show us the best model legislation for hate speech and disinformation.”

As I argued in Part I, it seems to me that Kaye indulges in excessive cut and paste to make his generic case against laws and proclamations aimed at regulating “hate speech and disinformation”.

But that begs questions.

Since Kaye is arguably one of the most authoritative experts in the world, at least by UN designation, on freedom of expression, why does he not draft a model “hate speech and disinformation law” and share it with the world? (Is the answer to that “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?)

Could he piece together the best parts of the world’s best “hate speech and disinformation” laws and, like Meles Zenawi, create a “flawless” and “perfect” law for adoption by all countries? (Is the answer to that, “It’s outside the scope of my mandate”?)

Could he get the U.N. Human Rights Council to propose a draft model “hate speech and disinformation law” for adoption by the U.N. General Assembly or the U.N. Human Rights Council? (Is the answer to that, “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?”)

Could he Perhaps lead a diverse body of international experts on freedom of expression such as the body that drafted the “Rabat Action Plan” to develop practical guidelines, recommendations and language for use in “hate speech and disinformation” laws? (Is the answer to that, “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?”)

Could he and others like him help regional human rights  organization like the African Human Rights Commission to develop capacity,  guidelines and recommendations for “hate speech and disinformation” laws that are relevant to the African experience and consistent with African traditions? (Is the answer to that, “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?”)

Could he organize expert workshops for countries like Ethiopia to help them write the “hate speech and disinformation” that pass Article 19 muster and effectively meet local needs and standards? (Is the answer to that “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?”)

Could he “customize” the Rabat Action Plan (which talks about standards in broad generalities) for Ethiopia?  (Is the answer to that, “It’s outside the scope of my mandate?”)

The problem I have with Kaye’s approach and analysis to “hate speech and disinformation” laws is that he believes Article 19 is the only and ultimate standard of perfection and measure for freedom of expression.

Kaye seems to believe only a few chosen oracles are capable of interpreting and fixing the meaning of Article 19 and all others must accept their interpretations as gospel truth.

Kaye condemns the draft proclamation as “go[ing] far beyond the command of Article 20(2) and the limitations on restrictions required by Article 19(3) of the ICCPR.”

I am perplexed. Is Article 19 one of the Articles of Faith or the equivalent of the Apostles Creed for freedom of expression?

Article 19 is not a dogma of divine ordination.

Neither do I believe that the U.N. Human Rights Council is the equivalent of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith for freedom of expression established to undertake inquisitions and punish/excommunicate heretics of freedom of expression.

I will state it plainly. I regard Article 19 and related articles as aspirational and inspirational. I regard them as directory, not mandatory. Nations can aspire to maximize freedom of expression and use Article 19 as a guideline.

But article 19 is not the equivalent of the Nicene Creed to be followed by all guided by the chosen few.

The Rosetta stone of Article 19/20 is the so-called Rabat Action Plan, prepared in 2013 under the auspices of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

That Plan synthesizes and summarizes the expert opinions, “suggestions and recommendations of international expert bodies who held a series of expert workshops on the prohibition of incitement to national, racial or religious hatred and observations on legislative patterns, judicial practices and policies.”

I will concede that I know little about the credentials, expertise and composition of the “international body of experts” that issued the Rabat Action Plan.

My understanding of “expert opinion” testimony is limited to the procedural rules practiced in American federal and state jurisdictions.

In 27 years of law practice, I have jousted in the “battle of experts” from time to time.

Those who give “expert opinions” testify from a carefully crafted “script”. Experts are often paid handsomely to give preferred testimony. Expert testimony can be rebutted by other expert testimony and evidence.

I propose a battle of experts against the forces of hate, disinformation and fake news promoting violence and lawlessness.

The draft “hate speech …”

[Special Note: Discussion of the draft proclamation herein are based exclusively on the author’s translation of the Amharic text into English. There could be translational disagreements on words and phrases. I am not sure Kaye has proficiency in the Amharic language to be able to understand the draft proclamation in its original formulation. Until an official English version of the draft proclamation is released, there is no point in debating translational issues.]

In his broadside against the draft ‘Hate Speech and Disinformation Proclamation’, Kaye presents two arguments. In the first, he argues the proclamation as drafted “could reinforce rather than ease ethnic and political tensions.” He claims, “Inter-ethnic conflict spurred on by hate speech and disinformation demand not just legal solutions but political ones in which the Government and its opposition pursue reform at each state and district level. Law can support that process, but ultimately political will must exist to allow it to survive and thrive.”

I will not address Kaye’s first “political” argument since he has avoided it by disclaiming, “The basket of problems I am describing is deeply political and beyond the scope of my mandate to review fully.”

In his second line of argument, Kaye alleges the draft proclamation is fatally flawed  because it could lead to “criminalization of speech” due to its “failure to limit the offense by principles of intent, context, and other factors found in the Rabat Plan of Action.” Specifically, Kaye asserts the “draft’s excessive vagueness” and “overbreadth” could result in “arbitrary arrests and prosecutions” by local and federal authorities.

Kaye argues the “definitions” in the proclamation “provide excessive scope for interpretation and, by their breadth, would not meet the legality standard in Article 19(3) [20(2)] .”

In other words, the definitions are “overbroad”, “unclear [about] what may be covered by speech that “promotes hatred, discrimination or attack against a person…” and would not sufficiently guide law enforcement authorities. He recommends, “laws to combat hate speech must be carefully construed and applied by the judiciary not to excessively curtail legitimate types of expression.”

Kaye’s second argument is familiar to me and resonate constitutional debates in America.

In American constitutional law, there are two methods commonly employed to challenge the constitutionality of a law/legislation. There are “facial” challenges in which proponents aim to show the law is unconstitutional by the very terms and language used in crafting it. In an “as applied” challenge, the claim is that while the law may generally valid, it operates improperly against a particular individual or group.

I believe what Kaye is arguing is that the draft proclamation is facially invalid (without ever being applied at all)  under Articles 19, 20 or other human rights conventions.

In his  mechanical, speculative and declaratory interpretation, Kaye believes that if the draft  proclamation becomes law it will not, ipse dixit, “not meet the legal standards of Articles 19 and 20.”

To declare a draft proclamation or a law that has not been implemented as facially invalid by simply reading the words is the height of intellectual arrogance and hubris or the pit of intellectual folly. Kaye dismissively presumes Ethiopian authorities will naturally and inevitably abuse and misuse the law, implement it in bad faith and are fundamentally incompetent in the performance of their duties.

Kaye offers no evidence to support bad faith and incompetence on the part of Ethiopian authorities.

The right and quintessentially relevant question for Kaye to ask was whether the draft proclamation passes muster the requirements of Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

To paraphrase a popular saying, “The devil is in the procedural details.”

The draft proclamation defines “hate speech” as speech that “promotes hatred, discrimination or attack against a person or an identifiable group or community on the basis of ethnicity, religion, race, color, national origin, gender or disability.”

“Disinformation” is defined as “speech that is false, is disseminated by person who knew or should reasonably have known of the falsity of the information and its likelihood of causing a public disturbance, riot, violence or conflict.”

Kaye argues, “while the definition seems to assume that ‘false’ has a fixed meaning, it does not. As a result, the definition raises serious overbreadth concerns under the legality test of Article 19(3), which does not provide for such restrictions.” He further contends it “is unclear whether the knowledge standard applies not only to falsity but to the likeliness of causing a public disturbance.” He further points out the “definition evidently excludes the element of intention” particularly “if a person were to share false information, knowing it was false, but intended to imply disagreement with the content.”

Kaye does not seem to be aware of the unusual procedural requirements of “intent” and “burden of proof” under Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

According to one scholarly analysis (see discussion pp. 288-290):

There are provisions in the [Ethiopian] Criminal Code that allow proof of facts constituting an element of a crime, mainly intention or knowledge, by presumption. In some cases, the public prosecutor does not even have to prove any basic facts for those facts to be deemed to exist. Some of the provisions even preclude contrary proof of facts that are presumed to exist. Courts routinely impose the burden of proof on the defendant. These state actions and legislative provisions that shift the burden of proof to the defendant not only restrict (and sometimes nullify) the constitutional principle of presumption of innocence, but also negatively impact the fairness of the criminal justice system administration in a fundamental way.

Intention exists where a person commits ‘an unlawful and punishable act with full knowledge and intent in order to achieve a given result’ or that ‘he, being aware that his act may cause illegal and punishable consequences, commits the act regardless of such consequences may follow’ (Article 58 “Criminal Intention”).

Under Ethiopian criminal law and procedure, the defendant bears the burden of raising affirmative defenses to overcome the prosecution’s proof beyond a reasonable doubt.

There is even an irrebuttable presumption regarding such intention or knowledge that constitutes an element of the crime. Thus, with regard to crimes committed through the mass media, the Criminal Code provides that ‘[i]n determining the liability of a person … for the crime committed through the product of mass media, the content of the matter shall be deemed to have been inserted, published or disseminated with … full knowledge and consent’ of the editor-in-chief, deputy editor, publisher, printer, disseminator, etc. It is further provided that ‘[n]o proof to the contrary may be admitted in such a case’. These are not evidentiary provisions; they are substantive provisions which establish guilt by presumption because they preclude contrary proof.”

Kaye is barking up the wrong tree. His quarrel is not with the draft proclamation but the Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

For Kaye to argue the draft proclamation must be held to Articles 19 and 20 in disregard of Ethiopia’s criminal law and procedure shows that he is either uninformed, naïve or dogmatic.

Since the crux of the issue for Kaye in the draft proclamation is arbitrary prosecution of persons engaging in “hate speech” and “disinformation”, the question is whether to follow Ethiopian criminal procedure or disregard it in favor of Articles 19 and 20 standards.

The bottom line is the draft proclamation is consistent with current Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

Do I believe there is a need for revising Ethiopian criminal procedure with respect to “hate crimes and disinformation”?

Do I believe there is a need to revise Ethiopian criminal law and procedure in its entirety?

Do I believe it is time to overhaul Ethiopian laws to measure up to the legal standards of the so-called advanced industrialized  societies?

Those are questions I shall reserve for my forthcoming commentary, “The Need for Medemer Jurisprudence”.

The bottom line is simply this: The draft proclamation if enacted into law will become part of the criminal law and subject to applicable criminal procedural requirements. To do what Kay wants done with the draft proclamation, it will be necessary to revise substantial areas of Ethiopian criminal procedure!

David Kaye and the myth that legislation cannot really solve the problem of hate speech in Ethiopia

Kaye argues, “hate is very much a function of politics and, as such, it requires first and foremost a political, national solution.”

What Kaye is dismissively saying about the draft a proclamation aimed at controlling the lawless driven by hate was addressed long ago by Dr. King when he talked about the necessity of laws to deal with the heartless.

It is true that legislation will not solve the problems of hate speech, “in the final sense, hearts must be changed.”

But there is a need for laws, proclamations, legislation and  judicial decrees to stop those who would use speech to incite the lynching of others because of their ethnicity, religion or language. There is a need for legislation on the local scale within the “kilils” and on the national scale from the federal government to deal with hate speech and disinformation.

There is a need for a “hate speech and disinformation” law in Ethiopia!

W.E. Gladstone, the 19th century British Prime Minister observed, “The American Constitution is, so far as I can see, the most wonderful work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.”

The draft “hate speech and disinformation” proclamation before the Ethiopian parliament is by no stretch of the imagination the “most wonderful” piece of legislation “ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man”. Nor do I believe the draft is gospel that is unchanging and eternal.

It is a narrowly tailored proclamation that deals with the problem of hate speech and disinformation within Ethiopian criminal law and procedure.

Kaye argues, “Combating hate speech is a delicate endeavour, which requires an in-depth knowledge of the local context, proficiency in local languages, and understanding of social and cultural habits, among so many others.”

The draft can certainly be improved and refined with the collaborative effort of all stakeholders of goodwill and good faith who are committed to making  Ethiopia second to none in the practice, protection and preservation of freedom of expression.

It can be improved through practice, careful judicial interpretation and attentive legislative oversight.

But the draft proclamation cannot be improved by boilerplate criticisms, furtive disclaimers and dogmatic appeals to Articles 19 and 20.

Kaye’s concerns remain speculative since no one has been or could be prosecuted under the draft proclamation. There are many practical (not just academic) aspects of enforcement of hate speech and disinformation laws. Judicial determination of violations of the  proclamation if enacted will require consideration of the totality of the circumstances, not just quibbling over abstract academic definitions.

How do judges determine when heated political rhetoric is transformed into incitement? Could courts consider evidence of prior statements encouraging or inciting violence? Should a framework be developed to enable courts to identify incitement based on set criteria? Could the experiences and laws of other countries dealing with hate speech and disinformation be relevant to Ethiopia?  Could Ethiopia adopt standards from the U.S. such as the Brandenburg test?

I take a practical, let’s-wait-and see approach to the draft proclamation. If it is enacted, let’s see if there is abuse and misuse.

Would the courts use a test for incitement that is arbitrary and capricious? Would the courts be able to provide standards regarding the elements of “imminence” and “likelihood” of imminent lawless action?

None of these questions can be answered easily. The line between what is freedom of expression and incitement speech has not been clear even in the United States. For more than five decades, U.S. courts have been struggling to develop systematic framework for determining the categories and contexts of speech acts that are most likely to cause imminent harm or injury.

The power of hate advocacy cannot be understated. Charismatic and populist leaders are more likely to influence behavior if they are perceived to be important by a particular audience.  The Nazis rose to power by systematically advocating a message of hate and by demonizing minority groups in German society. Long before the Holocaust, Jews were consistently depicted by the Nazis as threats and  “enemies of the German people” and labeled “Untermenschen” or  sub-humans.

Speakers can promote fear,  resentment and violence among their followers by accentuating historical grievances and scapegoating others.  Speakers can spread disinformation to incite lawlessness.

In June 2019, YouTube issued notice it will ban supremacists and remove Nazis and other extremists from using its services. Similar actions are being taken by Facebook.

Whether a given speech is intended to cause violence is a factual matter to be decided on a case-by-case basis by a fact finder. However, hate speech and disinformation laws are not contradictory to the exercise of robust political speech and prevention of lawlessness by advocacy of hate.

Medemer Jurisprudence….  to follow.

 


Reality 2020

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Getaneh K Yismaw

As we begin the new year and third decade of the 21st century, here are some musings on Ethiopia.

Government Propaganda

Watching government propaganda media such as ETV, FANA, Walta or other servile outlets and/or some motivational speakers who frequent the grounds of Menelik II Palace, or ESAT, one would think Ethiopia has, in fact, become utopia: on fast track transition to democracy (just don’t ask details) —where its current government is the best thing that happened to it, and that prosperity–powered by Prosperity Gospel (a strand of US Protestantism), is just around the corner—we just need to water it with a firehose, of course with Canon Camera crew in tow, you know.

Election is four months away and Prosperity Party, without holding a general meeting and electing its leaders, has been recognized and certified as legit—curtesy of Birtukan Mediqsa lead Election Board. Hooray!

 

Stubborn Reality

The reputable and independent Crisis Group has put Ethiopia as one of top 3 countries in the world to watch for major conflict and instability—correctly so. Ethnic political inferno—just on about all issues—where hatred is medium of currency, is at its fever pitch, ready to unleash mayhem (already saw its dry in the form of #October2019Massacre as well as the Burrayyo massacre a year prior, both in Oromo region). Universities are nonfunctional, especially more so those in so called Oromo Region. Thousands of Amhara student have been forced to flee for their lives, dropping out of classes and headed to their families—after violence and warning from Qeerroo; several students have been murdered across several Universities. Classes have been suspended many times across many of them. Some Universities are closed altogether and it’s not even news anymore. Just in the last few days Wollega and Dire Dawa University have shutdown altogether (just in the last two days, 14 students died from a car crash in route to their families from Wollega Universtiy).  Lawlessness, crimes and impunity have never been this high—ever.

Yet the Abiy government has decided to hold election. How in the world can one hold legitimate election in Oromo region (and elsewhere) where road blocks are just common events?

 

(Asymmetrical) Region of Special Privilege and Lawlessness

Oromo Region has been granted both de facto lawlessness and special privilege. Since PM Abiy came to power, this region has been increasing its military (camouflaged as Police or Special Force—but it’s just ethnic military force whose loyalty is not to enforce the law equally but to discriminate against non-Oromos. Given the false grievance narrative of Amhara hatred which is the currency of Oromo extremists, this growing armed force, at the hands of extremists like Shemelis Abdissa, may conduct ethnic cleansing and worse. Just in the last few days, the Oromo regional govt has graduated thousands of military forces—with North Korea style parade and pomp—increasing its ethnic para-military ranks to tens of thousands. While Amhara Region was not permitted to do the same (and the person who’s leading the training in Amhara region was immediately singled out for elimination long before the June incident that left the region with leadership void).

In Oromo region, we have seen all kinds of gruesome crimes and displacements are being carried out by organized and hierarchical Qeerroo—with impunity. Targeted assassinations have become common. Attacks on Orthodox Churches and its believers have become common. Amharas are openly persecuted. These crimes are met by deafening silence by PM Abiy and almost all Oromo politicians (contrast that with a torrent of condemnation if anything slightest thing happens in the so-called Amhara region).

Any Non-Oromo Political party cannot travel or hold a public meeting let alone to campaign for election. Even the docile EZEMA, whose leader gushes loyalty and admiration for PM Abiy and his government, is not permitted to hold meetings.

 

The Economy

The Economy is seriously unbalanced with massive Forex shortage, high unemployment and high inflation and burdened with increasingly larger level of foreign debt that the country has difficulty servicing it. With IMF and WB new approved loans comes likely serious of preconditions: flexible exchange rate—which is inflationary without any of the benefits (the minuscule Ethiopian export sector doesn’t really respond to exchange rate fluctuations)—may likely add misery to those who are already struggling, among other conditions, like austerity in the form of price increase and service cuts, that we don’t know yet.

 

No Opposition

With all the hellish situations discussed above, one would think there should be an organized opposition to credibly articulate against the government of PM Abiy. But, no! At this point, there is no credivle and organized pan-Ethiopian opposition force to be had. EZEMA’s whole strategy is blind faith-based: believing Abiy its leader Dr Berhanu Nega just confirmed for the umpteenth time in recent days that his whole strategy is “believing Abiy”, despite his party is unofficially but practically banned to operate in PM Abiy’s home region.

EZEMA’s leader reminds me the veteran political fixture Vladimir Zhirinovsky of Russsia who runs for president only to defend, praise and support Putin’s re-elections. He has willingly suspended reality and has assumed out the real issue of the Region of Lawlessness and special privilege.

By misleading, at least a portion of the public, into believing some workable transition is in order, when the federal government even can’t maintain minimum law and order, EZEMA has become ancillary to Oromo Nationalists’ dystopian power projection and domination, instead of a check on them.

TPLF that lost power in Addis Ababa, has taken Tigray as de facto confederation state –out of the reach of the Federal government. TPLF is licking its wounds and, at times, contemplating to unleash war but afraid of an old dog to its north.

Assassinations, criminal hostage taking, and organized robberies are becoming daily occurrences—even in Addis Ababa, displacements are becoming common, Universities are either being closed or regular suspending their normal operations while scores of students are assassinated—all of which constitutes failed-state status—where PM Abiys government is unable to fulfill its primary responsibility to protect the people’s safety. How can a sane mind think credible election is possible in this atmosphere?

 

The Amhara Question

Despite ant-Amhara narrative has been government ideology for three decades and preached for two decades, the able and capable Amhara elite–save a handful few who are trying—and are clearly able to see through these façades, are keeping quiet, safe and on the sidelines. As the country faces existential threat and the lives of millions is at stake, apathy, indifference and inability to see beyond themselves by many capable people, is the most troubling. To some extent, these people are morally inadequate for abandoning their people.

The corollary to this apathy is that many who are trying to advocate for Amhara in politics and media are, at best, 3rd rate imbeciles and chopped livers who are being taken for cleaners by those whose existence is Amhara hatred. Some young social media activists who are trying to play as opinion makers in Diaspora based Satellite media are one who should take ESL classes and do some basic readings at community colleges but are audacious enough to present themselves as journalists. ADP (ANDM) is safely back to its former servile role and just comfortable playing secondary role.

The state of Amhara security, political and economic situation is worse than you can possibly imagine, even when you take account of the fact that it is worse than you imagine possible (to borrow a quip from a dismal scientist).

I hope this status is changed in the new year before the tipping point is crossed.

 

The post Reality 2020 appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News:.

A FEW REMARKS ON ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT’S NEW HISTORY MODULE

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BY HAILE M. LAREBO, BD, STL, PhD

HAILE M. LAREBO, BD, STL, PhD

The Ethiopian Ministry of Science and Higher Education has recently published history teaching material for students of higher learning institutions, entitled “Module For History of Ethiopia And The Horn For HLIS [Higher Learning Institutions Students, hereinafter “the Module”]”. The writers of the Module are four academicians: Drs. Surafel Gelgelo, from Addis Ababa University, Deressa Debu of Jimma University, Dereje Hinew of Wallaga University, and Mr. Meseret Worku, from DabreTabor University. These are undeniably men (unfortunately there is no woman), with considerable academic credentials. Three of them are honored with terminal degrees in the field of history, and the two (Surafel and Deressa ) have monographs apparently by the same publisher, VDM Verlag Dr. Muller, which is known for publishing “works that received a passing grade”, and is described as “a predatory vanity press” which, contrary to its claim of being an academic publisher,  does “not apply the basic standards of academic publishing”.

The Module is divided into seven units, and an introductory chapter. The first discusses the nitty-gritty of history, including its meaning and use, sources and methods, and its geographical context. The second deals with the peopling of the region and cultural evolution. The following three units are dedicated to polities, economy, and socio-cultural processes in the successive centuries: from the early period to the end of the 13th centuries is dealt in unit three, and those up to 16th century are addressed by unit four, whereas unit five discusses those from the early 16th to the end of the 18th century. The last two units, namely six and seven, deal with internal and external social and political dynamics and the forces at play, the first, from1800-1941, and the second, up to 1994.

The present paper has only a very limited objective: that of making a few remarks that I consider useful, highlighting mainly the most questionable aspects of the Module. As we all know, History is too important a subject to be ignored. It is a recorded memory of a society, and any society to function effectively, needs to know about its past. History is important not only to understand the society in which we presently live, and the processes by which it came about, but also to make informed judgements about the policies and personalities of those presently in power.

It is a good idea that before embarking on the topic I should highlight a few basic things when talking about history. History can be broadly defined as the study of the human past. Traditionally, very distant part, the period before the birth of the first human civilizations and the invention of writing, the period over 5,000 years ago, is the domain of Anthropology, whereas the very recent past, namely the events within the past five years or so, are the terrain of the Political Science and Sociology. What makes history different from other humanities and social sciences, History deals with hard facts. If there are no facts, there is no history. History, while sharing a common ancestry with epic poetry, novel, legend and mythology, it is different from them because its subject is based on documentary evidence in the form of writing, art or building work. In the past, both the subjects and the methods of ascertaining them were quite narrow, but in the twentieth century, they have expanded tremendously. Accordingly, mdern historians through DNA testing have discredited Anna Anderson’s claim that she was the grand duchess Anastasia, the daughter of Tsar Nicholas II, and with the use of carbon-14-dating technique were able to establish the age of the Shroud of Turin and discount the long-standing association of the fabric with Jesus’s burial cloth.

 

Yet History involves judgment, and because of the element of judgment that is why History is not a science, namely an academic discipline with an authoritative, unbiased statement of what really happened, THE TRUTH. Yet that does not mean the hard facts narrated in history never happened or existed.

To establish the falsehood of this statement, we have to make two important but very distinctive elements: “past facts”, or “human past” are the people and society who lived and the events that occurred during the times under study; “history” itself is our attempt to study, namely to investigate, explain, interpret and understand these past facts. “Past facts” are eternal truths, which are fixed, unchangeable, and beyond the control of every succeeding generation. By contrast, History changes continuously from generation to generation, from individual to individual, and according to the time and place, as the values and understandings of the “past facts” change due to improved analysis, or discovery of new facts etc… Italy’s defeat at  the Battle of Adwa in March 1896, for example, is a past [historical] fact, and both the fact and the date of the event are unquestionable certainties, and any contrary argument to them can be nothing but completely false as it runs against a simple hard fact.  Yet how the victory happened, why it happened, who played a major role, is a matter of debate, and the truth depends on the discovery of new documents or improved analysis of the existing ones.  These are the basic facts that we should bear in mind when discussing the Module.

The Module aims to achieve identical assets that most western institutions of higher learning intend to equip their freshmen and sophomores through their required core curricula courses, which stress, among other things, the attainment of the following specific objectives as their goal:

  • Ensure that student possesses fundamental intellectual skills among which the most significant include critical thinking and writing;
  • Broaden student’s perspective beyond that afforded by his/her major or minor, instilling in him/her sense of appreciation of the inter-relatedness of knowledge;
  • Facilitate student’s search for identity and meaning, emphasizing his/her national heritage, and his/her connectedness to the broader world;
  • Foster ethical behavior, civic engagement and leadership in his community, nation-state and beyond.

 

In the pursuit of this consciousness raising and self-empowering effort, it can be quite confidently stated that no other subject is as crucial as history. The writers of the Module seem to be aware of this fact, as they state that its purpose “is to help students understand a history of Ethiopia and the Horn from the ancient to 1994 as a base for shaping and bettering of the future”.

 

For history to attain this high objective, it should be understood and taught in all its complexities, both the pleasant and unpleasant, the heroic and the disastrous. Failure to adhere to this basic rule will result in bad history. We know that as there is good history, equally there is also bad history. Only good history will serve as a good guide to illuminate and shape students’ lives and problems. Good history takes into account as much evidence as it can and makes the most reasoned judgment as it can.  The Ministry’s Module badly fails to meet this challenge. It can be confidently stated that it is the worst kind of history filtered to serve the needs of the regime in power, written by selecting only those facts that “prove” its perspective, or just to make its constituents feel good.

 

In fact, no academic discipline in Ethiopia had become a subject of so much ridicule, controversy, contention and propaganda as does the country’s history. Each regime that followed the monarchical rule has used and abused it for its political agenda, blaming it for the depth and extent of the country’s social malaise, justifying its cruel and rapacious rule, and to engineer a new society in its own image. Both the Derg and the EPRDF regimes have practically transformed the country’s population into a human guinea-pig for their contemptible ideological laboratory. Their experiments miserably failed, but they left a complete mayhem behind.

Derg believed that the backwardness of Ethiopia was due to its exploitative social structure, where a handful of feudal lords in cohort with their twin bedfellows, the Church and the monarchy, abused the masses for millennia, exploiting their land and labor. However, Derg’s attempt to build a socialist El Dorado through an exported foreign doctrine, Marxism-Leninism, was nothing but an extreme disappointment. The Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front [EPRDF], which ousted Derg, fared no better. Primarily because as a hodge-podge of individuals and groups, handpicked by the victorious Tegrean nationalist liberation front [TPLF], a guerilla band, assumingly fostered and groomed by the Eritrean Liberation Front, has no national vision of any sort beyond hatred and blatant discriminatory rule, perhaps quite unheard and unseen in Ethiopia’s millennial history. TPLF attributed Ethiopia’s backwardness to the trinity of [USA] imperialism, monarchical feudalism and, what it described as, the Amhara overlord-ism, namely economic exploitation and political oppression. With its surrogate, EPRDF, TPLF vowed to fight tooth and nail, these evil trio. Accordingly, a constitution was drafted, followed by an administrative system that created ethnic enclaves, which apparently seemed to be useful instrument for the government’s agenda:  to eliminate, hunt down, and drive back, the oppressive Amhara to their putative homeland. Yet TPLF’s saga ended with the Front itself being unceremoniously driven back by a sustained popular protest to the land of its origin.

What is amazing and extraordinary in all these developments is not only the fact of these regimes’ fanatical adherence to their elusive and ill-begotten mythology, but also their inability to learn from their predecessors’ historical mistakes.  Beyond pontificating to be all-knowing, the regimes demonstrated their utter ignorance of Ethiopian history and social milieu. Whatever history they claimed they knew, happened to be a figment of their imagination, not reality.

This is the context in which the Ministry of Science and Higher Education module is written. It is apparently part of the Nobel Peace Prize winning Prime Minister, Doctor Abiy Ahmed’s grand vision of future Ethiopia. Abiy seems to have a good intention of bringing Ethiopia to its past historical height. As many understand, in the imagination of many nations in Asia, Europe and Africa, Ethiopia’s image is that of a shining black nation that served as a torch of freedom, a model of peaceful co-existence of disparate religions and languages, a country of proud ancient civilization. However, the vast chasm exists between Abiy’s speech and practice, and the Module typifies this abnormality. It is my conviction that the Module’s underlying interest is nothing else but the perpetuation, and therefore legitimization of, the usual false narrative by the new governing elite in the new dressing.

The major shortcoming of the Module lies in the very government’s attempt to dictate what the higher education institutions should teach. Institutions of higher learning are communities of scholars and students, assembled with a mission to preserve, interpret, cultivate, advance and disseminate knowledge for its own sake rather than for any immediate political, social, or economic goal. It is these institutions, and not the government, who own the curriculum, with the power to develop, amend, change, or dispose of. By writing down, or stipulating, what course and how the higher learning institutions should teach, the government is clearly infringing on the very basic and sacred rights of these institutions.

 

The government’s intention to unashamedly dictate its lopsided interpretation of Ethiopian history as perceived by the new ruling elite was apparently came to the fore a few months before the publication of the Module. A secret memo written to the Prime Minister Abiy by his top legal advisor, encapsulates the new perspective. This is what the advisor states about Ethiopian history.

“What we refer to, and used as, Ethiopian history to-date, is nothing but [an epic] that commemorates the hagiography of some nations. It is an isolationist history, which does not even mention the history of most Ethiopian nationalities, but particularly the history of the Oromo. (Highlight is mine).

 

The advisor has definitely no understanding of the evolution of historical writing in the world, in general, and Ethiopia, in particular.  It is an established fact that for several thousand years and until the end of the 18th century, written history was the political history of the upper classes, by the upper classes, and for the upper classes, which are made up of small ruling elite (stories of kings, their governments and wars), and their immediate servants, the clergy and the clerks. As the focus of history is on change, it is quite wrongly believed that this group alone was responsible for any changes in human sphere. It alone was in position to shape the course of history through its policies, leadership, personality or creativity. So, until a few decades  back, the lower classes, that is the vast majority of the human population, made only sporadic appearances on the stage of history as starving masses, or the suffering masses, or the rebellious masses, or served as tourist attractions, or crowd scene to highlight the visibility and presence of a high class officials in their midst. As we know it, the writing of local and ethnic history is a very recent phenomena everywhere, including the west, and Ethiopia is no exception to this general global trend. Yet contrary to the advisor’s statement, no ethnic group in Ethiopia has been the subject of so much historical interest as the Oromo ethnic groups were. Not only that. Some of the most prominent Ethiopian history writers themselves since the early days of their expansion, such as Dajach TakleSellassie, known as Tinno, and Abba TaklaIyesus Wakjira, just to mention a few, were scholars with Oromo background. 

 

The Module’s close reading suggests that as the TPLF regime was intoxicated with the hatred of the Amhara, the present ruling elites appear quite inebriated with what they claim Oromo’s uniquely distinctive culture, particularly as manifested in the Gada system, and other related institutions, such as Gudifecha and Mogasa. Overwhelmed by the “Gada euphoria”, the authors of the Module seem to have ignored the basic tenets of historical methodology, confusing myth with facts, lies with truths, opinions with certainties, and making judgements, that are lopsided, unashamedly biased, and mystifyingly false. They write profusely about the Oromo, ignoring, or simply making passing remarks on, other nationalities. According to them, the Oromos are the largest ethnic groups not only in Ethiopia, but in Africa as well (a statement lately echoed by the Prime Minister Abiy himself). Yet they provide no tangible evidence to back up their position beyond making such general public pronouncements.

 

A few centuries back, a European visitor wrote that,

“the Galla neither till, nor sow, nor gather anything the land produces… the spacious vales and rich plains they are masters of, only serve to pasture their cattle… They look after thy flocks, drink their milk, and eat thy flesh, which is all their food, without any bread …. They occupy the land if find any bread they do not mislike, but eat it, with a very good appetite, and yet not sow.”

However, the authors of the Module do not seem to share this view. According to them, the Oromos had already possessed quite sophisticated astrological know-how that enabled them to establish the oldest calendar in the planet, which went back to 9000 years (p. 63).

 

For many Ethiopian and foreign scholars, Gada is an ossified primordial and atavistic political institution, historically notorious for both its genocides that wiped out several ethnic groups from their homelands, and militaristic conquests that turned prosperous cities into deserts. Merid WoldeAregay, a leading scholar on the Oromo migration, in his magisterial thesis, Southern Ethiopia and the Christian Kingdom, 1508-1708 with Special Reference to the Galla Migration and their Consequences, 1971), states that “each new luba inaugurated its eighth year term by launching offensives for new conquests… Those who suffered most were the Muslim towns and cities (p. 334); “The Galla fell on every town and village and destroyed over 100 towns (p. 348)”.

 

As regards the much celebrated Mogasa, Merid has this to say:

“the Galla maintained the distinction between themselves and the subjugated peoples by adopting the social system that fitted their needs, they made sure that the strangers were kept out of the age-sets….”

In the eyes of “the peasants, the Gallas were not mere intruders, but aliens and enemies, who had caused much damage and upset their sedentary way of life (p. 417)”.

 

The writers, however, present a rosy picture of the democratic Oromo movement. They are completely silent about the wholesale devastation of cities, massacre of populations, and destruction of civilizations. They do not, however, extend such kindness to others.

 

A careful reader of the Module will notice that Ethiopian history is portrayed as a continuous and sustained struggle between power-hungry northerners (whom they call with so many confusing terms, The Abyssinians, or the Christian Kingdom, or the Ethiopian Empire, just to mention a few)  who are bent in dominating others and peace-loving Muslim sultanates, or the Oromos in the medieval ages;  and again, between colonialist Shawans and their northern Christian allies, as represented by Emperor Menilek and his Oromo collaborators, who conquered  inherently democratic and peace-loving Oromos and other minority ethnic groups. Thus, Menilek’s unification effort is presented as brutal colonial conquest, which in some extreme instances, as in Arsi’s case, involved the use of biological warfare, accompanied by breast mutilation and limb amputation and castration (p. 136).  Yet they have offered no shred of evidence in support beyond their audacious claim.

 

Beyond their attack of the ‘Abyssinian Empire’, the writers reserve the vengeance of their deleterious pen to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. They assert that the Church followed the footsteps of the conquering northern ‘Christian kingdom’. The conquered people were converted by force, and with the monopolization of burial places by the Church, total surrender became their fate (39).

 

The Module ends with a perfunctory review just in a single paragraph the EPRDF’s coming to, and consolidation of, power, including its over twenty-seven years’ rule. Reflecting the government’s propaganda, the authors describe the notorious ethnic enclaves that the TPLF invented  as based “on identity, language, settlement patterns and peoples consent”, and the non-sensical federal arrangement of the language-based states as a wise creation intended  to “rectify past injustices and imbalances perpetuated by an unrepresentative state through the decentralization of power … by accommodating the country’s various ethno-linguistic groups.(highlight is mine)” (p.194).

 

Definitely, the conclusion is most fitting summary that clearly indicates the true character and significance of the Module: a government ploy to present to the young students as normal and as a true reflection of the people’s will a tottering and unjust political order.

With these few pointed observations, I halt my remarks. However, I feel obliged to stress an absolute lack of additional readings for students to further their knowledge and curiosity beyond those provided by the Module/textbook, the absurdity of monolithic assessment method (only essay questions are provided), a cumbersome cacophony of names and words that may do nothing good but crush to the ground the student in agony and destroy his enthusiasm for any effective learning; the enormity of grammatical inaccuracies, typographical oversights, syntactical errors, and poor choice of words.

 

As regards the use of a foreign language for instructional purposes, I would like to throw out a few words. One of the mechanisms the former western colonial powers continue to maintain their dominance on their former black African colonies is the use of their languages as the official means of communication. Luckily, Adwa has freed Ethiopians from such degradation and enslavement; yet our educational institutions continue to use European rather than our own language. This is definitely a humiliating slap on the face of Adwa and those who fought and sacrificed their lives for our uncompromising freedom and independence. Therefore, I find extremely hard to grasp the reason for choosing a foreign means of communication in a country that has a longstanding national language and proud literary tradition that predate most of those in the west. It is said that the statesmen, who are normally considered as being far-sighted, care about the next generations whereas politicians, often selfish, unintelligent and vainglorious, look only for their next election. Instead of dictating the curriculum to higher education institutions, the government should work out a realistic plan and rewarding mechanisms to liberate Ethiopia’s institutions from the yoke of foreign linguistic dominance. In doing so, any enlightened government would save thousands, if not millions, of our precious students who fail their exams, or are discouraged from furthering their education, because of language hardship.

 

Finally, unless there is some covert and ulterior motive, perhaps intended to appease certain quarters or a few self-serving and narrow ethno-nationalists, who find even the mere mention of the name Ethiopia hard to swallow,  the term “And The Horn” in the title of the Module, is quite misnomer, not to say superfluous, as there is no relevant discussion concerning other surrounding Horn states beyond a few uninteresting remarks.

 

From an honest historian’s perspective, the Module is nothing, but the regime’s hidden propaganda parading as an academic history course. From the start to finish, it is an embarrassing document, and any serious historian will be faced with no other option but to throw it out – lock, stock and barrel. The design and instruction of an academic course is the preserve of higher learning institutions. It is for them to take the responsibility to develop their students’ curriculum freely and responsibly, and for the government to keep far away from it.

The post A FEW REMARKS ON ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT’S NEW HISTORY MODULE appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

PM Abiy Ahmed’s Message to Ethiopia’s Youth: Up From Poverty With Prosperity Party!

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by: Alemayehu G. Mariam

When I listened to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed introducing his Prosperity Party to a gathering of youth at Millennium Hall in Adds Ababa a few days ago, I had two reactions.

The first was pure elation.

In my lifetime, I have never heard an Ethiopian leader teaching the youth to put peace above politics, humanity above ethnicity, civility above nationality, amity over animosity and prosperity above poverty.

The Ethiopian “leaders” I know always talked about using violence to force people to submit to their rule. The military socialist Derg that took power in a coup in the mid-1970s massacred 60 top officials of the imperial regime and later waged a campaign of Campaign of Red Terror in the name of “class struggle”. Some 500,000 people, most of them young, were killed and tens of thousands more disappeared.

The regime of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that replaced the Derg similarly undertook its own campaign of “ethnic struggle” under the name “ethnic federalism” and  massacred tens of thousands of young people committing atrocities worse than the white minority apartheid regime in South Africa, as I have previously documented.

Today, we have a young Ethiopian leader who is teaching the youth:

Don’t die or kill to please your politicians or for politics.

Don’t die or kill for what you believe in because you could be wrong.

Cast your votes to fight for your cause, not rocks.

If you don’t like me or my party, punish us by withholding your vote not spreading violence in the streets.

If my party loses, I will hand over power within 24 hours and become the loyal opposition.

If your party loses, accept the people’s judgment and live (not die) to fight another day.

Our problem is not the politics of identity and ethnicity. Our problem is poverty. Lack of prosperity. Lack of empathy.

We are our brothers’ and sisters’ keepers, not our brothers’ and sisters’ jailers, torturers and tormentors.

The time for divide and rule using ethnic and religious dog whistles to grab power is over.

Prosperity is as much a state of mind as poverty is a physical state of existence.

You are what you think.

If you think of yourself as always being in poverty, you will never achieve prosperity.

If you think hate, you become haters.

If you think love, you become lovers.

Negative thoughts produce negative actions. Positive thoughts produce positive actions.

Negative energy is disempowering. Positive energy is empowering.

Fear produces inaction and indifference. Courage produces action and change.

In the end, we all become what we think.

Think solutions. Feel solutions. Don’t wallow in problems.

Work hand to achieve prosperity. Aspire prosperity. Dream prosperity. Hope for prosperity.

Don’t become friends with poverty for it will take you down and keep you down.

There is a poverty of mind. People who hate and use violence are sick in the mind.

Avoid the poverty of spirit. People who have no faith seek to lead the faithful into perdition.

For decades, you have been taught to feel like victims because of your identity, ethnicity or nationality. You are victors not victims. You are victors, captains of your fate.

You cannot be winners thinking like losers. You must always have a can-do attitude.

Fight your common enemy POVERTY with the powerful weapon of MEDEMER.

It is simply mind blowing.

I could talk about a paradigm shift in leadership in Ethiopia with PM Abiy.

In a political paradigm shift, one restructures the way one thinks and does politics.

PM Abiy is changing hearts and minds of the youth in a way I cannot fully explain.

To the best of my understanding as a member of the Hippo Generation (older generation), his approach to the Cheetah Generation (younger generation) seems straightforward: You can make Ethiopia a great and prosperous nation only if you can convince the young people to put their noses to the grindstone, shoulders to the wheel and their eyes fixed on the prize.

In order to convince the youth, you must first win their hearts and minds.

To do that, you must be  able to inspire them, uplift their spirit, touch their souls and stoke up their creativity for Ethiopia’s prosperity.

In short, Abiy Ahmed is campaigning not to win votes but to win hearts and minds!

I believe the 2020 election is going to be a referendum, a verdict on Ethiopia’s future, not an election of leaders for a government.

Ethiopia is at a crossroads today. Whichever road it takes will determine what will happen for generations to come.

The opportunity Ethiopia has been granted today, I believe, is divinely ordained.

Learning from the selfish child who became President of the most populous country in the world

PM Abiy was teaching and preaching to the youth with real life examples and metaphors.

He talked about a story he had read about Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Xi was a selfish little brat when he was child. He cared only about what he wanted and did not care about others. He could not keep friends but always blamed his friends for not liking him.

One day, Xi’s father wanted to teach his son a lesson in how to make friends and influence people. He prepared two bowls of noodles and placed one egg (a holiday delicacy during Xi’s days) on one of the bowls. Xi’s father told his son to choose one of the bowls and start eating. Xi instantly chose the bowl with the egg on top. Xi’s father started eating from the other bowl and covered by noodles at the bottom of the bowl were two eggs.

Xi was disappointed. His father noticed and gave him a piece of advice. “Son, what your eyes see may not always be true. By being greedy and taking advantage of others, you will eventually lose.”

A few days later, Xi’s father made two bowl of noodles and asked his son to choose one and eat. Xi, having learned from his previous experience, chose the one without the egg on top. But when Xi stirred to the bottom of the bowl, there were no eggs.

Xi was terribly disappointed missing out on the rarely available delicacy. His father gave him another piece of advice. “Son, do not trust too much in previous experience because life can be unpredictable.”

A few days later, Xi’s father did the same thing and asked his son to make a choice. But this time Xi had learned his lesson. “Father, you deserve to make the first choice because you have  sacrifices so much for our family. Please make your choice.” The father made his choice with the bowl with an egg on top. Then he gave him another piece of advice, “Son, always remember, when you think about others, good luck will come your way.”

PM Abiy changed part of the advice. “When you think about others, the Creator will help you.”

I learned the profound lesson PM Abiy taught to the Ethiopian youth today in my own youth long ago from Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.:

Every man [and woman] must decide whether [s]he will walk in the light of creative altruism or the darkness of destructive selfishness. This is the judgment. Life’s most persistent and urgent question is, ‘What are you doing for others?’

Dr. King taught us the method for “Conquering Self-Centeredness” in his 1957 sermon. He said, “one of the best ways to face this problem of self-centeredness is to discover some cause and some purpose, some loyalty outside of yourself and give yourself to that something.”

True it is!

The allegory of the good and bad wolf in all of us

PM Abiy used the allegory of the two wolves that are always fighting in the hearts and minds of every human being. He said:

There are two fearsome wolves that live in every human being. One is a bad wolf who is  filled with hate, discriminatory and likes to belittle others. He is lazy and trash talks those who work hard. He lies, steals and cheats. He is greedy and self-centered.

The other is a good wolf who speaks truth, works hard and loves his neighbor and is willing to forgive others. He understands history and believes in making progress my practicing Medemer.

If you should ask which of the two wolves will win, the answer is, “the one would you feed the most”.

If you feed jealousy, thievery and hate to the bad wolf, he will grow large and eat the good wolf.

But if you feed the good wolf truth, honesty, good will and altruism, then he will grow large and swallow the bad wolf.

So, the choice is yours.

Beware, the wolf that’s grows in you, whether good or bad, will not be limited just to you. The bad wolf will eat you and all that is around you. If the good wolf wins, he will spread love, goodness, forgiveness around you.

So young people, put your energy knowledge efforts to do good and may the Creator enlighten your  hearts and minds.

My apologies to Ethiopia’s youth: How much I regret my generation which has been wolfed down by the bad wolf!

I wish there was a leader to teach my generation what PM Abiy is teaching this generation.

I am full of regrets.

On behalf of my generation, I apologize to the present generation what folly it is for my generation to have fed the bad wolf in Ethiopia the raw meat of ethnic hatred, national disunity, communalism and sectarianism.

I regret and apologize for my generation that has been feeding the bad wolf a high caloric diet of hate, anger, division, strife and ethnic superiority.

I regret and apologize for my generation that has raised and nurtured the bad wolf  that has beaten down, torn to pieces, overpowered and crushed the good wolf living in the hearts and minds of the young people of Ethiopia.

I regret and apologize for my generation that has taught the young people of Ethiopia the proverbial, “Man is wolf to man.” (homo homini lupus) and create a toxic political environment of ethnocentrism, communalism and sectarianism.

My hopes and dreams for the young people of Ethiopia: A future of Peace, Prosperity, Progress and Liberty

I say to the young people of Ethiopia, never look back. “The only time you should ever look back is to see how far you have come.”

Do not be worried about that big bad mangy old wolf that once roamed the Land of 13 Months of Sunshine wolfing down everything in its way. He is gone, gone forever. He will never, never come back!

I know today that big old bad wolf is huffing and puffing to blow down the Ethiopian House.

Never fear. The Ethiopia House is built from stone and bricks and the big bad wolf can huff and puff until the cows come home. The Ethiopia House shall not be mover. It shall stand strong atop the hill.

So, know that the old wolf pack is disbanded, discombobulated, disheartened and disinherited.

Indeed, the big bad old wolf has inherited the wind, gone with the wind!

How sweet it is to see the big bad wolf curled up under the rock from whence it came.

Now that the big bad wolf is gone, it is now your responsibility to raise the good wolf!

Young people of Ethiopia:

If you allow the bad wolf of negative thinking and hate to rule your hearts and minds, you will deplete your mental and spiritual energies. You will become angry, hateful,  bitter and even violent.

If you allow the good wolf in you to feed on love, reconciliation, forgiveness, tolerance, civility and humility, you will be energized so you can  build a great society and shining city upon a hill.

I am supremely confident you have the will, the capacity and determination to raise a strong, fearless and determined good.

You must know it is not the size of the wolf in the fight that determines the winner. It the size of the fight in the wolf that does.

The young good wolf of prosperity can and will beat the bad wolf of poverty, illiteracy, disease, hate and strife.

The young good wolf you must now raise shall have many names. Peace. Love. Forgiveness. Reconciliation. Prosperity. Tolerance.

For ages and ages, Ethiopians have lived together in holy matrimony, as brothers and sisters, as friends, as neighbors and as compatriots.

We have always been “man is man to man”, not “man is wolf to man”.

We have lived our daily lives in hardship, in fellowship and holy worship.

Have faith. The victory of the good wolf is preordained.

My warning to Ethiopia’s young people… Ethiopia’s destiny is in your hands and in your hands only!

I would like to share the allegory of the boy, the bird and the old man with the young people of Ethiopia.

In a small village lived a wise old man to whom everyone turned for guidance and advice.  One day, a young boy decided he would trick the old man with a question that he knew the old man could not answer correctly.

The boy’s plan was to find a little bird and hold it cupped in his hands hidden from sight. He would then ask the wise old man to guess if the bird he holds covered between his pals is alive or dead. If the old man said the bird is dead, he would open his hands and let it fly showing the old man is not as wise as everybody believed. If the old mad said the bird is alive, the boy would squeeze and kill the bird proving the old wise man wrong.

So, the boy approached the old man and asked, “Wise old man, can you tell what I have in my hands?”

“Of course, I can,” replied the old man. “From all the feathers sticking out of your hands I can tell you have a little bird.”

“That is true! But as wise as you are, can you tell me if the bird alive or dead?”

The old man paused for a moment, looked at the boy compassionately and responded, “ “Whether the bird is alive or dead is in your hands my child. The choice is yours.”

So, it is with Ethiopia. Whether Ethiopia will live to be a land of peace, prosperity, progress and liberty in in your hands, Young People of Ethiopia. And only in your hands!

On a personal note…

I believe the 2020 election will be a referendum on Ethiopia’s future.

As I think of my generation, I regret how we weaponized the bad wolf of tribalism, communalism, socialism, communism, Marxism, sectarianism and all the other “isms” in our feeding frenzy for power, influence and money.

In our obsessive quest for “what’s-in-it for I, me and myself”, we have decided to feed the tens of millions of poor Ethiopians who can barely feed themselves to the bad hungry wolf.

Luckily, we are the last of our breed.

The young good wolf is rising and winning the hearts and minds of the common struggling people of Ethiopia.

I believe in my heart and mind, without doubt or reservation, Abiy Ahmed is wholly and fully committed to lifting Ethiopia up from poverty with his Party Prosperity.

I believe Abiy Ahmed is campaigning for the future of Ethiopia, its young people.

I believe Abiy Ahmed carries the cause of generations to come. He does not look at the rearview mirror to drive Ethiopia forward.

Some countries pride themselves as “Land of the brave and home of the free.”

I know as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow that Ethiopian will one day be known as the “Land of Peace and Home of Prosperity and Liberty.”

With age, I suppose, comes a certain amount of poetic sentimentality.

I shall indulge in such sentimentality for the benefit of the Ethiopian youth paraphrasing a verse in Robert Frost’s poem “The Road Not Taken”:

YOU shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood in Ethiopia, and YOU—
YOU took the one less traveled by,
That road named “Peace, Prosperity, Progress and Liberty”
And that has made all the difference for the coming generations.

LET US ALL HOLD HANDS AND TRAVEL ON THE ROAD TO PEACE, PROSPERITY, PROGRESS AND LIBERTY IN ETHIOPIA!

The post PM Abiy Ahmed’s Message to Ethiopia’s Youth: Up From Poverty With Prosperity Party! appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

The End of EleCtions and Dictatorship and the Beginning of Free and Fair Elections and Democracy in Ethiopia (Part I)

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: As the 2020 Ethiopian general election looms, I am filled with hope and expectation that Ethiopia for the first time in its millennia-long history will have a free and fair election and transition to democracy.

Ethiopia today is at a crossroads.

On May 22, 2015, in anticipation of general elections that month, I wrote a commentary entitled, “Ethiopia at the Crossroads of History” and posed a single question:

Are the people of Ethiopia better off today than they were 5 years ago?

Do they have more press freedom? More human rights protections today than five years ago? Is there more accountability, transparency and openness in government today than five years ago? Do young Ethiopians today have more confidence in their future than they did five years ago? Do Ethiopia’s youth have more employment opportunities today than they did five years ago? More academic freedom in the universities? Do Ethiopians have more access to the vast universe of information available on the internet than they did five years ago? Do Ethiopians today have more confidence in their future, their rulers and public institutions than they did five years ago?

In the past 20 months, all of these questions have been answered with resounding affirmation! There is vastly more human rights protections, press freedom, accountability, transparency and openness in government and the rest than there ever before in the history of Ethiopia!

But the burdensome economic legacy of the regime of the Tigrean People’s Liberation (TPLF) still lingers on and hangs on the necks of every Ethiopian like an albatross. The unemployment rate in Ethiopia increased to 19.10 percent in 2018 from 16.90 percent in 2016.  The TPLF had completely depleted the country’s foreign exchange reserves and the “crisis with hard currency will not be solved today, nor will it in the next 15 or 20 years.” Ethiopia’s population in 2015 was 100.8 million. In 2018, it was 109.2 million.

But Ethiopia is in the twilight of a new, free, prosperous ear. The tectonic transformations that have taken place over the past two years in Ethiopia point in the direction of an Ethiopia rising from the ashes of dictatorship.

Democracy looms over the Ethiopian horizon.

Democracy is not a magic wand that can be waived to fix inter-generational social and political problems. It is a process by which people in a society select those to whom they will delegate their sovereign power for a period of time under the principle of the rule of law. The essence of democracy is popular sovereignty, constitutional accountability and transparency in policy and decision-making.

In Part I of this commentary, I shall reflect on elections past, my role as a commentator on Ethiopian elections and examine the legal and scholarly standards for a free and fair election.

In Part II, I shall examine the recently enacted Proclamation No. 1162/2019 (The Ethiopian Electoral, Political Parties Registration and Election’s Code of Conduct Proclamation).

Special challenge to Ethiopian scholars, academics, intellectuals and others: Let us be “Ethiopia’s eyes, ears and mouths and teach and preach to the younger generation and the broader masses” as the 2020 election draws near.

I got involved in Ethiopian human rights advocacy as a result of the massacres that took place in Ethiopia following the 2005 election (see discussion below).

I have written dozens of commentaries on elections in Ethiopia over the past 14 years as part of my personal commitment to civic education to my regular readers and others as well as in protest to the TPLF’s election travesties.

As the 2020 election looms, I challenge all Ethiopian scholars, academics, intellectuals and other informed commentators to join me in civic public education.

I re-issue the challenge I made in my July 2012 commentary;

Ethiopia’s intelligentsia could play the roles described by Said and Havel, and even go beyond their prescriptions and serve as consensus-builders, bridge-builders, facilitators, promoters and pacifiers. I would like to challenge and urge them to become Ethiopia’s eyes, ears and mouths and teach and preach to the younger generation and the broader masses. They do not have to be concerned about dumbing down their messages to the people, for when speaking truth to power the people get the message loud and clear.

Never look back unless…

I coined the word “eleKtion” to describe the “elections” that were taking place in Ethiopia since the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front took power in Ethiopia in 1991, and particularly after 2005.

The “K” in “eleKtions” is for kangaroo elections.

In my February 2015 commentary “Ethiopia’s Perfekt Elektion”,  I suggested the parliamentary “election” scheduled for May of that year was “much ado about nothing.” I likened it to the proverbial pig in lipstick. At the end of the day, a pig in lipstick is still a pig just as a rigged election dressed in democratic haberdashery is still a rigged election.

Not to disappoint, the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TTLF) in May 2015 declared it had won 100 percent of the seats in its kangaroo parliament.

In 2010, TPLF claimed to have won 99.6 percent of the seats in its “parliament.”

I have written an extensive analysis of that election.

It is said that there are at least four different types of elections: (1) free and fair elections, (2) unfree and unfair elections, (3) unfree but fair elections and (4) free but unfair elections.

I would add kangaroo elections as the fifth type of elections.

…you want to know how far you have come along!

In less than two years, Ethiopia has taken a warp drive journey from ethnic dictatorship to multiparty democracy.

The bogus front party created by the TPLF, for the TPLF and called “EPRDF” is buried and on it grave have arisen many political parties, especially Prosperity Party.

There are over 100 self-declared political parties and opposition groups operating in the country. They should winnow down to 3 or 4 strong and competitive political parties and offer the people real alternatives.

Ethiopian eleKtions and I or how the 2005 Ethiopian parliamentary eleKtion changed my life

Until the 2005 “parliamentary election” in Ethiopia, I had at best an academic interest in Ethiopian politics and affairs.

As I have recounted on numerous occasions, I joined the Ethiopian human rights struggle after the Meles Massacres of 2005 and to vindicate the sacrifices of those who were murdered and maimed protesting that stolen election.

Following the 2005 election, the late Meles Zenawi, boss of the TPLF crime family, gave an order to shoot any protesters who demonstrated against the election results. As a result of that order, an Inquiry Commission established by Zenawi himself documented the extrajudicial killing of 193 individuals and severe gunshot injury to nearly 800 others.

I was outraged by the crimes against humanity committed by Meles and his TPLF gang. It was a defining moment: Either the moment defined me or I defined the moment.

I had four clear choices before me: 1) pretend the massacres did not really happen; 2) express fleeting private moral outrage and conveniently forget the whole thing as too many did; 3) hope someone will take up the cause of these victims of crimes against humanity and I can watch indifferently from the sidelines making excuses, or 4) take an active advocacy role and prosecute the criminals and their foreign supporters in the court of world public opinion, and if ever possible in a court of law.

I decided to live out the wisdom of the old saying, “The only thing necessary for the persistence of evil is for enough good people to do nothing.”

For the past 14 years, I have committed to using my pen/keyboard every week to prosecute and convict the TPLF criminals against humanity in the court of world public opinion.

Indeed, in February 2019, I put on “trial” “Bereket (The Curse of Ethiopia) Simon for Crimes Against Humanity” in the 2005 election massacre.

I have written extensively on Ethiopia’s “eleKtions” over the years.

In my April 2008 commentary, “The Emperor Has No Clothes”, I called on people to stand up and bear witness for democracy. “Speak up! We must tell the truth, the naked truth: ‘The emperor has no clothes!’ We must raise our collective voices and shout out, ‘These elections are a sham, a fraud and a scam!’ We must bear witness for democracy.”

In my December 2008 commentary, “To Catch an Election Thief”, I commented on the actions of the Thai  Constitutional Court of Thailand which convicted a boatload of election thieves for vote buying, vote rigging, conspiracies to defraud voters and other fraudulent electoral practices. I thought the 2005 election thieves would also be brought to the bar of justice.

In my October 2009 commentary, “Much Ado About An Already Won Election!”, I called it like it was. I argued the 2010 election was already won because the same crooks that rigged the 2005 election will be managing the 2010 election. I was right. The same crooks “won” 99.6 percent of the seats in parliament.

In my two-part commentary on “The Madness of Ethiopia’s “2010 Elections”,  I argued the TPLF was using the game of “election code of conduct” as a cover of legitimacy but the outcome will be the same old zero-sum game the TPLF has played so well for the past two decades.

In my March 2010 commentary “The A B C’s of Stealing an Election in Ethiopia”, I observed elections for the TPLF were the same as they were for Stalin who said, “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.”

In my May 2010 commentary, “Of Elections and Diapers in Ethiopia”, I told Meles Zenawi and his TPLF crew a  simple fact about elections: “Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason. What a pity the poor Ethiopia had to wear the same diapers for another 5 years plus!”

In my August 2013 commentary, I wrote about “Dishonor Among African Elections Thieves”, I observed, “Change is inevitable even though African dictators believe they can remain in power indefinitely by stealing elections and harassing, jailing and killing their opponents. African dictatorships have fallen from their own internal weaknesses and contradictions. Behind the tough and gritty exterior of regimes such as those in Zimbabwe and Ethiopia remain fragile structures and confused and ignorant leaders who are clueless about good governance and what to do to remain in power legitimately.” I was right!

In my May 2014, a year before the May 2015 election, in my commentary, “Of Elections and Diapers in Ethiopia”, I warned, “The ghost of Meles Zenawi will hang over the 2015 elections like “pall in the dunnest (dark) smoke of hell”, to paraphrase Shakespeare. Meles was the supreme playwright of stolen and rigged elections. He wrote the script and playbook for rigging and hijacking elections in the bush, long before he held the mantle of power. “

In my May 23, 2015 commentary, “Aaargh! T-TPLF ‘Wins’ Again!”, I offered the TPLF sarcastic congratulations for winning a flawlessly rigged election which it claimed to have won by 100 percent!

In my July 2015 commentary, “Laughing at Ethiopia’s 2015 Elektion”, I took to task Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice for laughing her butt off about Ethiopia’s election. She said the TPLF’s 100 percent electoral victory was democratic.

In 2009, Obama told the people of Africa “Make no mistake: History is on the side of these brave Africans, not with those who use coups or change constitutions to stay in power. Africa doesn’t need strongmen, it needs strong institutions.”

In July 2015, Barack Obama and I parted ways after he visited Ethiopia and declared the TPLF regime “has been democratically elected” and he “opposed any group that is promoting the violent overthrow of the government of Ethiopia.”

In 2015, Obama stood on the wrong side of history with the strongmen in Ethiopia who steal elections in broad daylight.”

It is 2020 I am looking forward for the first ever free and fair election in Ethiopia.

What makes for a free and fair election?

“Free and fair election” is an overused phrase with divergent meaning even among political scientists and scholars. In general conversation, the phrase is often loosely used to signify the need for transparency, inclusivity, accountability and equitable opportunities to compete in the electoral process.

Political scientists use “value-free measures, such as the quality of elections electoral self-determination and electoral integrity” to discuss electoral integrity.

I share the view of political scientists who comprehend “freeness” of an election in terms of the “the right of adult citizens to register and vote as well as having the right to establish and join parties and campaign freely within the country.” The “fairness” element “refers to every voter’s entitlement to exercise his or her right equally with others.”

However, there are at least ten variables that should be considered in a comprehensive evaluation of a given election: legal framework,  electoral management bodies, electoral rights, voter registration, ballot access, campaign process, media access, voting process, role of officials and counting votes.

Beyond scholarly standards, “free and fair elections” are guided by various international conventions and resolutions.

The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, though non-binding, under article 21 (3) provides “everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country, directly or through freely chosen representatives” and “the will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret vote or by equivalent free voting procedures.”

The 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, binding upon signatories including Ethiopia, under article 25 provides, “Every citizen shall have the right and the opportunity, without any of the distinctions mentioned in article 2 and without unreasonable restrictions: (a) To take part in the conduct of public affairs, directly or through freely chosen representatives; (b) To vote and to be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors; (c) To have access, on general terms of equality, to public service in his country”.

The African Union Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa lists 13 conditions under which democratic elections are conducted as part of the strengthening of the democratization process. Of special significance are the requirement for an AU observation and monitoring of elections.

The Declaration  of Criteria for free and Fair Elections of the Inter-Parliamentary Council (the international organization of the parliaments of sovereign states” has set 13 provisions on election rights and obligations.

In all of the foregoing, there is consensus on the core elements of a free and fair election.

Stars aligning for the first free and fair election in Ethiopia’s history

There is substantial evidence to show that Ethiopia is poised to have its first free and fair election in its long history.

Legal Framework:

The legal framework established in Proclamation No. 1162/2019 (The Ethiopian Electoral, Political Parties Registration and Election’s Code of Conduct Proclamation) provides a comprehensive scheme of rights, guarantees and obligations. (Full discussion of the Proclamation will be provided in Part II of this commentary.)

Electoral Management Body:

The duties, responsibilities and independence of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia are set forth in minute detail in Proclamation No. 1162/2019. The Board is led by Birtukan Midekksa, a former judge, political prisoner and Harvard graduate.  The Board has substantial power in all aspects of the electoral process Proclamation guarantees independence and impartiality to the Board and decisions of the Board may be appealed to the Federal High Court.

Voter Registration:

Extraordinary care is given in the Proclamation to prevent voting fraud and irregularities. Part III of the Proclamation provides detailed procedures for voter registration, verification and vote counting.

Parties/Candidates:

Chapter Two of the Proclamation provides detailed procedures for qualification for candidates, nominations and issuance of certificate of candidature, among other things.

Campaign Process:

Chapter Three of the Proclamation provides detailed procedures on how to conduct election campaigns, code of conduct, use of mass media and prohibited practices.

Media Access:

Article 44 of Chapter Three provides use of mass media, article 126 of Chapter Five addresses the responsibilities of journalists.

Voting Process:

Chapter Four of the Proclamation provides detailed guidelines on the voting process including operation and security of polling stations, election observers, voting hours and casting votes.

Role of Officials:

Chapter Eight of the Proclamation provides various safeguards to prevent manipulation of votes to distort voting process. It has provisions to prevent intimidation and violence, process for filing grievances and complaints, transparency and any violation of the Proclamation.

Counting of Votes:

Chapter Five of the Proclamation provides detailed procedures for vote counting, accountability, transparency, invalid votes and provisional votes.

Will Ethiopia have free and fair elections in May 2020?

Whether Ethiopia will have free and fair elections in May 2020 is a question of empirical proof once the election takes place.

However, in my assessment there will be a free and fair election in May 2020. My reasons are set forth above.

But there are those who  doubt there will be a fair and free election.

In September 2018, it was reported that certain opposition groups were threatening to boycott the election because of a requirement for a national party to produce signatures of 10,000 voters, up from 1,500. Regional parties will need 4,000 signatures, up from 750.

Other opposition leaders had argued the new Proclamation will disadvantage opposition parties seeking to challenge the ruling party’s “grip on power.” There was also objection to a provision civil servants must vacate their jobs if they are going to run for office.

However, despite “complaints from the Joint Council of Political Parties, representing 107 opposition parties, and a threat to boycott Ethiopia’s 2020 general elections, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) chairwoman, Birtukan Mideksa, stood by the new Electoral and Political Parties Law of Ethiopia.”

Some have argued for the postponement of the 2020 election and formation of a “grand coalition government for the coming three years to debate and implement social-political reforms.”

Almost a year ago, foreign doomsayers-cum-commentators have declared, “The probability that Abiy and the EPRDF would be defeated in 2020 is high, assuming it is a “free and fair” process.” One of the doomsayers recently threatened to lead a demonstration against PM Abiy during the Nobel Peace Prize Oslo ceremonies.

I like to see the sunny side of Ethiopia. I see an Ethiopia Rising in the Horn of Africa. The others see the sun setting on Ethiopia.

To be continued… Part II…

I am willing to bet my bottom dollar that in May 2020 Ethiopia will be basking in the sunshine of peace, prosperity, progress and liberty!

 

The post The End of EleCtions and Dictatorship and the Beginning of Free and Fair Elections and Democracy in Ethiopia (Part I) appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News.

Development 101 for Willfully Ignorant Economists, Politicians, Journalists, investors… of Ethiopia

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The political Marketplace of Money, war and the business of Power” will end and replaced by the Marketplace of individual liberty, peace and the business of Democracy only when access to information is possible to force willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… embrace reality on behalf of the people than fairytale on behalf of their enablers.

Teshome Debalke
January 12, 2020

The Chinese proverb say, ‘a journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step’.  Disappointingly, it doesn’t mean much for willfully Ignorant contemporary economists, politicians, journalists, investors… to take a single step in the right direction to the mitigate the systemic problem facing the people of Ethiopia and the region — starting from embracing the reality on the ground and telling the truth about the ethnic clans and cliques’ captured apartheid developmental state undergoing ‘reform under new Prime Minster.

As pathetic as the ruling member Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) party and its surrogates that instigated ethnic apartheid rule and their empty propaganda against the modest reform the new PM initiated that gave them the opportunity to own their crimes against the people of Ethiopia may be,  ‘The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, war and the business Power (2015) authored by Alex De Waal nailed how the Horn of African regimes in general operate with far more consequences to come for the people if the PM reforms doesn’t address what drives the ruling elites and their willfully ignorant ‘professional’ cheerleaders and enablers head-on.

De Waal’s book review summarized the reality as; “…drawing on thirty-year career in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia, including experience as a participant in high-level peace talks, Alex de Waal provides a unique and compelling account of how these countries’ leaders run their government, conduct their business, fight their wars and, occasionally, make peace. De Wall shows leaders operate on business model, securing funds for their political budget which they use to rent the provisional allegiances of army officers, militia commanders, triable chiefs and party officials at the going rate. This political marketplace is eroding the institutions of government and reversing state building and it is fueled in large part by oil export, aid funds and western military assistant for counter-terrorism and peace keeping”.

When you take the ‘dollar financed nonsensical ethnic apartheid developmental state’ of Ethiopia with giant population and self-subsistence economy that surpass the combined populations of all the Horn of African nations, one would think, the single logical first step in the right direction for any reform to take would be to dismantle the ‘political marketplace’ of money, war, and business of power and replace it with a marketplace of individual liberty, peace and the business of democracy that would build viable, transparent and accountable institutions in the public interest. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be, thanks for the willfully Ignorant and donor-dependent economists, politicians, journalists, investors… conflating reality with fairytales to sustain the status qua that served them well for almost three decades.

Granted most of the world is run by perception than reality primarily due to elaborate propaganda infrastructure built to sustain the status qua, any willfully ignorant professional can pass as expert in governance, democracy, development, economy, investment, peace, security …  to pivot the reality as it was designed. Thus, as fate would have it their behavior is ‘elastic’ as economist like to refer it marinating in what psychologists refer as “argument from ignorance” … more so ‘argument from willful ignorance’ better contextualized by Peter Block, the author of ‘The Structure of Belongings’ as;

“Invitation is not only a step in bringing people together, it is also a fundamental way of being in a community. It manifests the willingness to live in collaborative way.  This means that a future can be created without having to force or sell it or barter it. When we believe that barter or subtle coercion is necessary, we are operating out of a context of scarcity and self-interest, the core currency of the economist.” 

Thus, without the context of the reality, there are no professional economists, politicians, journalists, investors… but useful instruments of power ‘to force or sell or barter’ public liberty, rights and resources. Nor, there is an economy, politics, journalism, investment…  to speak of but a ‘political marketplace’ of money, war and the business of power’ to distribute the pillage among the willing elites at the going rate as De Waal stipulated.

Development Rule101: You shall not participate in Political Marketplace of Money, war and the business of Power or simply put state-sponsored COURRAPTION. That basic rule that would have made a world of difference for the people ruled by fairytales shouldn’t require a PhD in any field to figure out.

Unfortunately, as repetitive as it may sound to tell the political, social and economic reality of Ethiopia for the ruling elites and their willfully ignorant ‘professional’ cheerleaders again-and-again, too many aid-dependent and willful ignorant homegrown economists, politicians, journalists, investors… in nations with too little economy, rights, information and opportunities … better articulated by a Ghanaian born Grant Management expert Benjamin Kofi Quansah as; “the more Africa depends on aid the less opportunity it creates for its people” speaks volume why and how ‘The Real Politics of Money, war and the business of Power’ is sustained as long as it did on behalf of shadowy interest groups posed as private sectors to extract public resources.

But, beyond ‘the real politics of money, war and the business of power’ that persisted for decades, the groundbreaking economic development book authored by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson in 2012 titled Why Nations Fail: The Origin of Power, Prosperity and Poverty that must be read by all willfully ignorant elites that strive in failed states as well as every student of development and citizen alike that ultimately pay for it summed up the universality of the ‘Politics of Money, war and the business of Power’ that brought state-sponsored mismanagement, nepotism and corruption thus, the political, social and economic crises — underdevelopment, poverty, war, misery, migration … and, the one-and-only remedy to end it all in one short paragraph as;

“Whether it is North Korea, Sierra Leone or Zimbabwe, well show that poor countries are poor for the same reason that Egypt is poor.  Countries such as Great Britain and Unites States became rich because their citizens overthrew the elites who controlled power and created a society where political rights were much more broadly distributed, where the government was accountable and responsive to citizens,  and where the greatest mass of people could take advantage of economic opportunities.”

Speaking of the sorry state of Egypt under tyranny since independence, a recent Al Jazeera documentary titled Egypt’s lost power that exposes the network of corruption and racketeering in the energy sector alone reviles; the universality of “the political marketplace of Money, war and the business of Power in every poor and aid-dependent nation that cannot get rid of the  corrupt ruling elites and their willfully ignorant pseudo professional cheerleaders that cover for them.

Thus, the next logical ‘journalistic’ inquiry — who, what, when, who, where, why and how the ruling elites’ control and sustain power comes in handy if only the willfully ignorant journalists stop being lapdogs for the power to be as oppose watchdog journalists in public interest like their counterparts in democratic nations. Unfortunately, lapdog journalist outnumbers watchdog journalist, the reality is buried underground for as long as one remembers.

In recent article titled; “The Dollar Curse: Financing the Nonsensical Ethnic Apartheid Developmental State explain most of the problem of Ethiopia”, we presented  Janine R. Weddle’s paper published in April of 2003 titled Clans, cliques and Captured State: Rethinking ‘transition’ in central and Eastern Europe that eluded the Ethiopian intelligentsia in understanding what author refers as “the partially appropriated state and the clan-state” they live under. Accordingly, she observed; “the two models fall along a continuum – from substantial appropriation of the state and use of politics by private actors in a sweeping appropriation and a near wholesale intertwining of state resources and politics.”

When the ruling ethnic clans and cliques posed as ‘private actors’ capture state agencies, nongovernmental organizations and business enterprises of Ethiopia wasn’t enough, the willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… parroting their fairytales to sustain the status qua that benefit them astonishing.   

       For instance, take two high-profile ethnic clans-and-cliques captured research institutions in apartheid Ethiopia. The first is the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) affiliated with The London School of Economics based International Growth Center that  claims to be “a semi-autonomies thinktank established in Aug of 1999 to engage in development research” and led by Dr Newai Gebre-Ab, the Former Senior Economic Adviser for the late PM Melse Zenawi. Unfortunately,  Gebre-Ab’s  missing association with TPLF on his International Growth Center profile alone tells a story; EDRI is not what it claims to be but a front masquerading as independent thinktank.

The second is the Ethiopian Economic Association that claims to be “professionals’ association established in 1991” to “engage in economic research” led by Dr. Atnafu G/Meskel of College of Business and Economics at A.A. University. What the Association’s website provide to the public speaks volume, it is anything but association of professional economists.  Dr. Atnafu G/Meskel nonexistence public profile other than what is provided by A.A. University itself ethnic clans and cliques captured institution also tells a story; EEA is association of willingfully ignorant economists doing the bidding of its sponsors not to mention making a mockery of the profession of economics.

Regardless, there are many flaws to unpack from just two institutions among many governmental, nongovernmental and private institutions, it would be disservice to claim one write up can do justice to explain the systemic problem ethnic apartheid developmental regime captured institutions pose to the public interest but to highlight the underpinning institutional complicity, nepotism and corruption that come with it at the expenses of the rights and liberties and the economic opportunity of the people of Ethiopia.

From the outset, one thing identical about both institutions like many that set the nation’s public policy agenda is their funds come exclusively from bilateral and multilateral organization and corporate foundations. As the result, not only they subverted their respective institutional integrity along the personal and professional integrity of their members but, they are playing hide-and-seek not to disclose information about themselves and whose behalf they do research, once again making mockery of institutional transparency and accountability along the way.

Moreover, the relatively staggering numbers of economists engaged in ‘research’ produced nothing more than the little they provide on their respective official website to the public in the English language. It speaks volume, public information is a domain of willfully ignorant economists run institutions to “force or barter or sell’ it like any other commodity at the going rate.

Take for instance the 17th International Conference on Ethiopian Economy held in July 18, 2019 co-organized by the Ethiopian Economic Association and the International Food Police Research Institute (IFPRI) — a Washington D.C. based NGO with no information on the proceedings and the outcome of the conference nor the background of the participant provided on the respective official websites of the organizers to the public. It is typical example of the hide-and-seek policy of state captured political, social and economic institutions and their partners and sponsors in what they do behind the seen.

Thus, EEA website provided only the featured guests as “Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina, State Minster and The Minister of Finance & Economic Development as the guest of honor who gave the opening remark and Dr Abebe Aemero Selase, International Monitory Fund (IMF) Africa Director making presidential address following the opening remark”.

Apparently, according to the organizers, the two ‘honored guests’ speeches or the proceeding of the International Conference on Ethiopian Economy nor who participated weren’t important enough for the people of Ethiopia to know.

Here it worth to note, IFPRI is a member of the Center for Global Innovative Agriculture Research (CGIAR) www.cgiar.org. – “a Global partnership that unite international organizations engaged in research for food-secured future”, according to its website.  Among CGIAR’s 15 member organizations is IFPRI that opened an office in Addis Ababa at undisclosed year and location on its own official website but has a dedicated website for its Ethiopian Strategic Support Program (www.essp.ifpri.info) with a joint twitter account IFPRI-ESSP@IFPRI_ESSP that was set up in September of 2018. IFPRI also claims to “collaborate” with Ethiopian government’s  Policy Studies Institute (www.psi.gov.et) as well as the Ethiopian Economic Association and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute all funded by donors led by the World Bank.

With 100s of ‘research analysts’, ‘fellows’ and ‘coordinators’ around the world, among them was the Former IFPRI researcher Dr Eleni Gebremedhin that ended up to be the Founder and CEO of the donors-funded Ethiopian Commodity Exchange. Three years later, the former food policy research fellow of IFPRI conveniently established Eleni LLC, a Nairobi, Kenya based foreign private equity fund management firm with the support of the World Bank and Morgen Staley Investment and a decade later founded Blue Moon Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia based ‘agribusiness investment fund’ with the help of donors led by the European Investment Bank.

Eleni L.L.C’s investment portfolio includes, the infamous Irish singer Bono led private equity investors 8 Miles Equity Fund that initially acquired Awash Winery from the infamous Ethiopian Privatization Agency. The Agency, according to the London based All Africa Media sourcing the government run English language Ethiopian Herald “transferred  377 public enterprises to private holding”.

Bono, known better for fundraising scheme to help the African poor through his Washington. D.C. based NGO One Campaign that claim to be “a global movement campaigning to end extreme poverty” brought abroad Dr Eleni Gebremedhin as Advisory Board member and the Former USAID Director General Gayle Smith as President while advocating private equity investment including his own will help “end extreme poverty”.

It is not clear how an Irish national Bono implicated by the leaked Paradise Paper of 2016 for engaging in offshore equity investment in several developing countries while simultaneously raising fund to help the African poor for over four decades  and with his relatively new US based NGO One Campaign remained a mystery and, says more about the complicity of donors on conflict of interest, nepotism and corruption.

Ironically, the same Bono led One Campaign according to BBC News advocates Corruption impoverishes and kills Millions. Again, the half-baked BBC report sourcing the “anti-poverty organization One” claims, “an estimated $ 1 tn (£600bn) a year is being taken out of poor countries and millions of lives are lost because of corruption” without doing further investigation; Bono & Associates’ venture in poor nations in the name of private investment led development and fund raising for the same poor to “end  extreme poverty” is main source of  corruption.

The BBC report also claims, One’s recommendation as a solution in fighting corruption is not for the African nations’ governments he invest under but  “urging G-20 leaders meeting in Australia in November to take various measures to tackle the problem including making information public about who owns companies and trusts to prevent them being used to launder money and conceal the identity of criminals”.  

Regardless of whether the willfully ignorant BBC journalists on Bono & Associates’ or local and international Medias’ journalist on EEA and IFPRI co-organizer International Conference on Ethiopian Economy and the ‘honored guest speakers’ State Minster and Federal Minster of Finance & Economic Development Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina and the IMF’s African Director Dr Abebe Aemero Selase conflict of interest; distracting from the mother of all corruption is no accident but a preemptive strike to control the narrative.

After all, for Bono and Associates or State Minster and Minster of Finance Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina and Associates that represents a New York based and Cayman Island registered venture capital firm Schulz Private Equity Fund that opened its Ethiopian office in 2008 like many, manmade poverty is an investment opportunity with lucrative return.

Dr Tolina was also the Minster of the Federal Planning and Development Commission of Ethiopia despite the only experience he provided on his LinkedIn Profile (as of Oct 2019) was “Manager of the Ethiopian Public Private Consultative Forum for the World Bank Group from March 2013-Present”. Since October 19 his LinkedIn Profile was revised to reflect a better picture of what he did for the last two decades. Moreover, he claims to be a graduate of Mekelle University, BA in Economics (1996-2000) and Gorge Washington University — Elliott School of International Affairs in MIPP (2009 -2010) and a PhD fellow at ‘University of Maryland in Public Policy (Political Economy) 2011 – Present’.

Therefore, it is not clear whether Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina is speaking on behalf of the undisclosed ethnic apartheid state he supposedly represents, the Ethiopian Federal Government, the World Bank Consultative Group or SGI Frontier Capital, “a Venture Capital & Private Equity investors’ (formerly known as Schulz Private Equity Fund registered in Singapore) when he attended the July 18, 2019 International Conference on Ethiopian Economy and holds Media interviews ever since as a government official in the new PM Abiy Ahmed Administration.

 

At the meantime, Dr Aemero Selase’s missing professional career that span three decades  starting in 1991 as a Senior Economic Adviser for the late Chairman of the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) turn the President of Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) Melse Zenawi until 1995 before he joined IMF as Africa Deputy Director and later Director ever since tells a story of who the African Director may be.

But, what is not clear, how a graduate of one of the most prestigious London School of Economics  trained economist that worked for the Economist Magazine’s Economic Intelligence Unit described as “the world leader in global business intelligence” ended up as a Senior Economic Advisor for the late Chairman of the ruling member party TPLF and President of TGE not only speaks volume about the willful ignorance of contemporary economists to the reality of the Ethiopia in general but the very violation of economics profession itself.

Regardless, IMF through its Press Office provided the transcript of its African Director’s July 18, 2019 address at the International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy missing on both co-organizers’ websites titled Contextualizing Ethiopia’s Recent Economic Performance — despites his declaimer at beginning of his presentation stating; “Let me start with two caveats. First, these are my views and not those of the IMF nor its Executive Board.  Second, it has been some 25 years since I lived here. And here I am, in front of this assembly of our countries celebrated economists to tell you what you likely know very well already.”

It is not clear why the IMF African Director failed to disclose he didn’t just “lived here” i.e. Addis Ababa but he was a Senior Economic Adviser for the late PM Melse Zenawi. Nor, why his personal perspective of ‘contextualizing Ethiopian economic performance’ completely ignored the context of clans and cliques’ captured ‘developmental’ state led by the ruling ethnic member party TPLF he advised since 1991 and the nepotism and corruption that came with it.

At the same time, no one knows why the IMF Press Office want the world to know the personal perspective of its African Director as oppose its official policy.

Regardless, what stood out in the IMF’s African Director willfully ignorant perspective on the Ethiopian economy with the accompanying data and graphs to justify it was his opening and concluding remarks as well as his recommendations for the new PM Abiy Ahmed’s economic reform effort as;

“Known Knowns. As I have been reading and learning more about Ethiopia’s economy and preparing this address, there seems to be two important points on which there is broad agreement:

  • Over the last 25 years, Ethiopia has made incredibly important development progress, underpinned by rapid economic growth.
  • Of late however significant macroeconomic have emerged.

My aim today is threefold:

  • To put this progress into an international perspective. This comparative perspective is in many ways what the IMF is good at.
  • To concede the factors that have contributed to this success;
  • Finally, I will turn my thought on how the challenge that have emerged might be addressed.”

concluding;

“It is not for lack of appreciation on the development progress that has been made.  Some 30 years after the cold war, Ethiopia and much the rest of sub-Saharan Africa are much changed. It goes without saying that poverty remains unbearably high, the fruits of strong growth in some countries have accrued disproportionately to the better off, far too many people are still impacted by conflicts. But there has been much progress and transformation. And, I am not talking about skin-deep changes such as shiny new buildings or better skyline, but fundamental progress that has shifted the opportunity set of a generation.”

And, recommending;

“first, there is an urgent need to increase government revenue” and “second, there is a strong need to boost export growth by creating room for higher levels of domestic and foreign private investment”

Unfortunately, a day earlier (July 17, 2019) the IMF’s African Director Dr. Selase with the newly appointed Director General of the Ethiopian Investment Commission Abebe Abebayehu co-organized a workshop in Addis Ababa titled G20 Compact with Africa Peer Learning on Private-sector-Led Diversification and Growth. On his official capacity as the IMF’s African Director Dr. Selase’s remark once again provided not by the co-organizer — Ethiopian Investment Commission led by Abebe Abebayehu but by the same IMF Media Relation Office. He said;

“Excellencies,

My dear Co-host Commissioner Abebe Albabayhu,

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Good morning. It gives me a great pleasure to welcome you this morning [in my hometown] to this workshop on Diversification and Growth jointly organized by Ethiopian Investment Commission and the International Monitory Fund.

It is good to see that we have brought together diverse set of stakeholders interested in making Africa succeed—government officials from compact with African countries, private sector representatives, civil society, academics and bilateral and multilateral development partners.

We also have the honor to have among us H.E. Getahun Mekuria, Minster of Innovation and Technology of Ethiopia and Dr. Arkebe Oqubay, Minster and special Advisor to Prime Minster of Ethiopia, who kindly accepted to participate in this workshop.

And went on;

 “our host country Ethiopia provides an interesting example, given its ambitious reform agenda to boost private sector-led growth through attracting foreign direct investment, increase export diversification and promoting greater integration with regional and global economy.”

What stood out in his presentation again is the absence of raising state-sponsored corruption nor national economy integration before “promoting greater integration with regional and global economy”.

Even more mesmerizing, in May 2018, a month before the new PM Abiy Ahmed came to power (April of 2018), the IMF African Director Amero Slease appeared at Wilson Center’s Africa Program Forum representing IMF on Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa titled Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment.

What stood out in his Wilson Center presentation was bundling Africa as one economic unit broken into regions as oppose individual sovereign nations under siege by aid-and-debt dependent regimes with willfully ignorant professional apologists looking the other way. By doing so, the IMF African Director failed to mention the reality of any single nation particularly the ethnic apartheid developmental state of Ethiopia under the late PM Melse Zenawi he advised in the early 90s that set the economic motion of developmental state under ethnic clans and cliques captured state that brought the present economic crises before he moved on to be an IMF official advising  African regimes and the one-fit-all solution of ‘regional and global economic integration’ and ‘domestic revenue mobilization and private investment’ of the IMF policy under his leadership that conveniently end up to be his personal perspective on the Ethiopian economic performance a day after he declared it was the IMF policy.

Apparently, in December 4, 2018 (eight month earlier), the official IMF Press Office’s “Country Focused News” titled “Ethiopian Remarkable Progress Over More than a Decade” stated;

“Ethiopia has built on its strong track record of development over more than a decade. Growth slowed in 2017/18 but remained high while current account deficit continues to narrow, the IMF says in its recent report. The sub-Saharan country is embarking on its next phase of economic reforms and powered by the private sector”.

What boggle the mind beyond conveniently  redefining the private sector, growth, development, economic reform… to the predetermined outcome was, where in the real world a multilateral organization Press Office put out news of itself and a personal perspective of its African Director on its own official website as impartial third-party —  making mockery of conflicts of interest and institutional transparency is what Africans are subjected, thanks to the complicity of the willfully ignorant African Director and many donors-sponsored homegrown economists, politicians, journalists, investors… singing the tune along.

Therefore, the context of ‘Conceptualizing Ethiopian Economic Performance’ of the IMF African Director’s personal perspective that happen to be the official policy of the IMF  should remind readers a research paper in December of 2018  authored by little known management professor at Indonesia University by a name Dr. Kanti Pertiwi titled Contextualizing Corruption: A cross-Disciplinary Approach studying Corruption in Organization”.  What stood out in the paper beside what the author referred as “taking a rationalist perspective studying corruption in organization” was the origin and the period the number of corruption studies spiked as;

“Anti-corruption arguably entered the sense of international development in the late 1990s in what Naim (1997) called the ‘corruption eruption’. There was an overwhelming interest, locally and globally at that time for eradication of corruption. This call was led by international development agencies, particularly The World Bank (Koechlin 2013).

… a quick research on Web of Science portal reveals that there was a significant increase in the number of studies on corruption, starting with 1125 articles in year 2000 but increasing to 18, 604 academic articles published by end of 2017.”

Thus, “corruption eruption” in the last decade proven to be nothing more than academic exercises to control the narratives on corruption to desired ends of the donor as oppose institutional transparency for democratization and economic development of poor nations.

In that regard, the 1998 World Bank Group – African Region Poverty Reduction and Social Development Unit Anti-Corruption Report on Ethiopia reviled; negotiation between high level WB official and the ruling member Party Tigray People Liberation Front Chairman and PM of Ethiopia Melse Zenawi created the government run and donor-financed Federal Ethics and Anticorruption Commission (FEACC) led by the  handpicked Commissioner Ali Suleman that end up what the World Bank consider ‘anti-corruption measure’ in Ethiopia.

Two things that stood out in the 1998 World Bank Anti-Corruption Report, in the “Background” section where high level WB officials negotiating with PM Zenawi led TPLF party that operate 100s of ethnic clans captured private enterprises that overwhelm the economy (essentially empowering ‘the fox to guard the henhouse’)  and the report section “II. Corruption: A Global Concern and Problem Areas” implying; corruption is not caused by the ruling party of Ethiopia but ‘a global concern and problem areas’ that requires yet more studies to understand.

Fourteen years later (2012), The World Bank came up with yet another 400-pages report in collaboration with the same Federal Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission titled Diagnosing Corruption in Ethiopia that examine a dozen sectors focusing on the symptom of corruption as oppose the cause —  making a mockery of fighting corruption along the way.

Bit, the report also reviles;

“Ethiopia has a particularly large number of international donors: 10 multilateral institutions, 22 bilateral organizations and 50 international NGOs”

In spite of the presence of all ‘development agencies and their professional experts, corruption fighting is not a priority for none and, three decades later the nation still relies on three commodities export and foreign aid – defying the very meaning of development itself.

The IMF under its African Director is even more brazen. Not a word of corruption let alone fighting the ruling party led state-sponsored corruption is in any of his speeches and writings as the source of the problem facing Ethiopians that requires reform when he recommends; ‘revenue mobilization and private investment’ as a solution.

Finally, since the IMF African Director dictates the economic reform agenda as his ‘personal perspective’  and IMF policy depending his audience, the latest IMF COUNTRY FOCUS – Six Things to Know about Ethiopia’s New Program reviles; IMF’s policy is presented as “Homegrown Economic Reform Plan” as

  • “Program Ownership: The authorities have developed their very own ambitious Homegrown Economic Reform Plan tailored to the country’s needs and preferences. They have engaged in wide-ranging outreach to discuss the economy’s future with key stakeholders and have taken important initial steps to implement reforms.
  • Program details: The IMF approved the Ethiopian authorities’ request for an almost US$ 3 billion loan under its Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility to back the Homegrown Economic Reform Plan. As well as helping to address the foreign exchange shortage, the program will also aim to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Other key objectives include reforming the financial sector and boosting revenue mobilization which will be supported by the provision of technical assistance and training.
  • Aims of the program: The program builds on the authorities’ actions by ensuring public sector borrowing is in line with lower debt levels and stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises. Monetary policy will aim to bring inflation into single digits. Exchange rate reform will address foreign exchange shortages and increase exchange rate flexibility and, combined with structural reform, will further improve export competitiveness. Revenue reforms and efforts to increase the efficiency of public investment will ensure that infrastructure and social spending needs are met while maintaining sustainable debt levels.
  • Protecting social spending and reducing poverty:  Fiscal policy is designed to create the space for more spending to tackle poverty. Expenditures on the rural and urban poor will be increased to ensure that sufficient resources are dedicated to support the Productive Safety Net Program, one of the largest and most successful social safety net programs in Africa.
  • From public to private sector-led growth:The government’s investment in infrastructure and education has laid a good foundation for the transition to private sector-led growth. To generate returns from past investments, reforms are needed. These include resolving the foreign exchange shortage, improving the business environment that will boost investment and accelerate the economy’s transformation.
  • Creating a vibrant financial sector:The program is also aimed at building on recent financial sector reforms by improving access to credit by the private sector—this has been identified as a key obstacle to private investment. Financial sector development needs to be accompanied by stronger supervision and financial safety nets to ensure that the financial sector remains stable.”

Though all ‘six things to know’ only reviled; the World Bank Group sponsored willfully ignorant economists with access to insider information defining economic reform, what stood out among the six is the transition “From public to private sector-led growth” with no information available to the public – redefining and defying  the very meaning of ‘private sector-led growth’ and ‘homegrown Economic Reform Plan’ — the price of ‘the cart before the horse’ reform policy.

Therefore, it is not clear whether IMF and its African Director believes Ethiopians are stupide to understand economics or simply have no power to do anything about it arm-twisting the PM. But one thing that is clear; many willfully ignorant professionals are not accountable to the people of Ethiopia but their sponsors to look the other way. That by the very definition is crime against humanity on economic front as it is on political front. 

Incidentally, Transparency International (IT) in 12 April 2019 report titled The Trillion Dollar Question: The IMF and Anti-Corruption One Year On reviles; splitting words on the symptoms of corruption or silence remained the preferred methods multilateral organizations like IMF chose to engage African regimes than tackling the cause – clans and cliques captured state-sponsored nepotism and corruption.

 

No wonder why the workshop co-organized by the IMF’s African Director Aemero Selase  and the Ethiopian Investment Commission Director General Abebe Abebayehu that invited the Minster of Innovation and Technology Getahun Mekuria, and State Minster and special Advisor to Prime Minster Dr. Arkebe Oqubay as guest of honor, nor the International Conference on Ethiopian Economy co-organized by the EEA under Dr. Atnafu G/Meskel and IFPRI under Director General Shenggen Fan a day later that invited the Minister of Finance Dr Tolina and the IMF African Director Dr Aemero Selase as guest of honor speakers all skipped to mention a word about corruption altogether; not to mention the mother-of-all corruption — clans and cliques captured state and private institutions despite over 18, 000 corruption studies led by the World Bank was conducted failed to figure out that would explains why the Ethics and Anticorruption Commission of Ethiopia sponsored by the WB remained dormant.

Professor Said Hasson of Murray University known for his anticorruption research on Ethiopia for decades including his July 2013 paper titled “Aid Predation and State Capture: The Role Developmental Aid is fueling Corruption and Undermining Governance in his January 2019 paper titled Corruption, state capture, and the effectiveness of anticorruption agency in post-communist Ethiopia” nailed the problem in one paragraph than all WB Group led donors financed institutions and their willfully ignorant economists failed to address as;

“we show that the war against corruption collapsed mainly because of mischaracterization of the nature of corruption in the country and how FEACC was established – a conventional anticorruption agency for nonconventional problem of corruption”.

The Federal Ethics and Anticorruption Commission of Ethiopia (FEACC), the principle government agency led by the Former long-time Commissioner Ali Suliman (picture left) followed by the current Commissioner  Ayeligne Mulualem (pictured right) that supposedly fight corruption in the nation since its inception in 2001 proven to be symbolic agency to cover up the systemic corruption.

For starter, its latest news on the official website was in November 2011 — arresting individuals for allegedly accepting bribe and its latest publication was on International Anti-corruption Day celebration in the same year of 2011.

But, the commission’s official Facebook page alike its website is active. Its September 2, 2019 news titled “EAAACA hold executive meeting” it reviled, the Federal Ethics and Anticorruption Commission (FEACC) of Ethiopia Commissioner Ayeligne Mulualem that replaced the Former longtime Commissioner Ali Suleiman is the current President of East Africa Association of Anti-Corruption Authorities (EAAACA).

The Irony Commissioner Mulualem of the Ethic and Anticorruption Commission of Ethiopia and President of the East AFRICA Association of Anti-Corruption Authorities left his Nation’s page blank on the official website of the eight member nations’  of East Africa anticorruption authorities website says more about fighting corruption is not the objective but covering it up on behalf of the sponsors.

Moreover, it is not clear how a Former Head of Amhara Regional Health Bureau ended up to be a Commissioner of the anticorruption agency of Ethiopia and leave the President of East Africa Anti-Corruption Authority.

The nonexistence background Ayeligne Mulualem on both high-profile national and regional anticorruption agencies is a prime example; willfully ignorant politician covering up the reality of clan and cliques captured state-sponsored corruption.

When that wasn’t enough, A little-known San Francisco based online Media E-Zega run by undisclosed individuals in its Aug 2019 News report  by unnamed ‘stuff reporter’ claimed, the “the Commission has been made inactive after its mandate and responsibility were taken over by the attorney general office and federal police offices, a senior official said”. It is not clear why E-Zega would not identify the ‘senior official’ that reviled the information the report relied on nor its ‘staff reporter’ that wrote the report and, why the editors’ responsible for E-Zega’s content identity is hidden from the public.  E-Zega is typical example of make-believe Media with willfully ignorant journalist pivoting the political, social and economic reality of Ethiopia on behalf of nefarious interest groups in the diaspora.

Unfortunately, like many public agencies, the new Investment Commissioner Abebe Ababayhu (since Dec 2018) isn’t forthcoming with the workshop he co-organized with the IMF African Director either. The proceeding of the workshop he as the Ethiopian government official co-organized with the IMF African Director is nowhere to be found on the official investment agency’s website he oversees.

Apparently, a mysterious TPLF operatives in diaspora and the Founder and CEO of a technology firm ModernETH based in New York Manny Amare (pictured left) that run the Ethiopian the nation’s Investment Commission website since TPLF came to power in 1991 appeared to be still in charge of what is put out for the public. Manny Amare real name Amanuel Amare  firm that opened its office in Addis Ababa in 2008 to run key public agencies’ websites on sight is a classic case of clans-and-cliques captured public institutions by private actors controlling the narratives and depriving information to the people of Ethiopia and, remained unchallenged by the new Commissioner under the reformist PM as well as the willfully ignorant journalists of make-believe Medias at home and in the diaspora that look the other way.

The new Investment Commission General Director Abebe Ababayhu’s LinkedIn Profile reviles he was a Senior Legal Adviser in the Office of the Prime Minster for one month while he was a Deputy Commissioner of the Investment Commission since Jan 2016 under Fesum Arega, the Former Commissioner turn a Press Secretory for the new PM Abiy Ahmed and the current Ethiopian Ambassador to US.

Prior to that, Ababayhu’s experience includes, working for USAID WTO Accession Project and the World Bank Group since 2008, according to his profile.

Incidentally, like the investment commission, the official website Ethiopian Embassy in the US under the Former Investment Commissioner and the current Ambassador Fesume Arega not only doesn’t provide information on who-is-who responsible but is run by the same individuals as it was before.

The saddest thing in the whole exercise of futility is the willfully ignorant ‘journalists looking elsewhere away in what our wise people like refer as ከብት ባልዋለበት ኩበት ለቀማthan exposing the reality nepotism and corruption that undermine the nation in the last three decades and the new reform effort to address it.

Had the so-called journalists of make-believe Media did their professional duty as oppose engage in diversion and cover up; they would uncover the reality of every big-and-small public agency and private institution that matter to the people of Ethiopia is captured by TPLF operatives mostly from the diaspora.  Manny Amare happened to be entrusted to control the investment and trade narratives in the last three decades posed as a private actor starting with the first Commissioner Abdi Woldemechael, a low-profile TPLF operative in UK appointed in 1991 followed by Taddse Haile and Fusume Arega.

The privately invite Ethiopian Diaspora Business Forum established in 2008 run by two-brother team Yohannes Assefa in New York and Henock Assefa in Addis Ababa that publish The Ethiopian American Magazine is the latest front Manny Amare uses to control investment and trade narratives of Ethiopia.    After 27-years behind the seen Manny Amare (Amanuel Amare) appearance as speaker  at and his firm Modern ETH as sponsor  of the 12th annual Diaspora Business Forum in July 2018 is a tell-tell sign; clandestine TPLF operatives are out in the open and  remained to be a force to be reckoned with undermining economic reform as much if not more than the ongoing political reform on behalf of TPLF oligarchs  willfully ignorant journalists choose to ignore altogether.

Here it worth to note, besides ModernETH led by Manny Amare of New York; Fairfax African Fund led by the infamous Former investment advisor of the ruling party Zemedeneh Negatu of McClain, Virginia,  PRECISE led by the Forum’s Co-Founder Henoke Assefa of Brooklyn, NY and World Remit  led by the Founder Ismail Ahmed of London, UK happened to be the sponsors of the 2018 Diaspora Business Forum.  Once again, the willfully ignorant journalists of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Service (Ebs) established in 2008 and run by TPLF operatives in Maryland and Tadias Magazine in New York established in 2003 happen to be the only Medias in the Diaspora that entertain the Forum’s propaganda of the last decade.

The legendary 17th century mathematician, logician, physicist and theologian Blaise Pascal said it best; “Distraction is the only thing that consoles us from miseries and yet it is itself the greatest of our miseries”.

In that regard, TPLF operatives’ self-inflected miseries of the last four decades as many other contemporary political forces are consoled by elaborate distraction from facing the reality of what they do to the people of Ethiopia.

Therefore, weather the 17th International Conference on Ethiopian Economy organized jointly by EEA and IFPRI or the workshop jointly  co-organized by IMF and EIC nor the 12th annual Diaspora Business Forum organized by two TPLF operatives brother team and publisher of The Ethiopian American Magazine and investors in Ethiopia should remind the public how willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… make up stuff to distract Ethiopians from ethnic clans and cliques captured apartheid state conflating fairytale with reality to the desire end of their sponsors.

Take for instance a snapshot of the reality of the ‘Ethiopian Economic Performance’ in the context of export commodities of the last decades under clan captured ethnic apartheid developmental state all willfully ignorant economist, politicians, journalists and investors ignored for almost three decades.

The top exports of Ethiopia since the Former Senior Economic Adviser for the ruling party of Ethiopia and the current IMF Africa Director Dr Aemero Selase advising African regimes what to do or not for almost three decades to end up recommending — ‘domestic revenue mobilization and private investment’ is the way to go in the new PM Abiy Ahmed economic reform effort, nothing much changed except massive national debt under his watch in just 10 years alone — leaving Ethiopians to hold the empty bag of debt worth several decades of income to pay.

As it stands now, the Ethiopian national per capita debt rose from $129 in 2008 to a whopping $449 in 2018, according to Country Economy. Thus, Ethiopia’s public debt of $10.344 billion in 2008 gone up to $48.991 billons in the last 10 years alone.  The report claims, “this amount means that the debt in 2018 reached 61.04% of Ethiopian GDP.”

Some estimate the total national debt in the $60 billion range.

At the meantime, the Organization for Economic Corporation (OEC) claims,  “Ethiopia exported $2.2 billion and imported $8 billion in 2017 year period resulting in negative balance of $5.8 billion. The top exports of Ethiopia according OEC consists, coffee ($712M) followed by oily seeds ($348M), Gold ($242M)”.

The WTO (World Trade Organization) Merchandise Trade claims, Ethiopian export/import data for 2017’ also reviles a ‘total merchandise export of $3.17 Billion and import of $16.289 Billion — a trade deficit of over $13 billion.

 

Notwithstanding public data is held hostage by the ruling elites led by TPLF operatives, it is not clear why such large disparity in export trade data reporting is possible. But, according to Global Financial’ December 2011 Report “illicit capital flows as a result of corruption, kickbacks and bribery while the remainder items from trade mispricing” are the top reasons pointed out. The report went on to say, “in 2008 Ethiopia received US $885 million in official development assistance but, this was swamped by massive illicit outflow. The scope of Ethiopia’s capital flight is so sever that our conservative US $3.26 billion estimate greatly exceeds the US $ 2 billion value of Ethiopian’s total export in 2009.”

Incidentally,  according to the October 2019 Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCCRP) titled  TI Report Expose the UK as a Money Laundering Haven —  showing the willful ignorance of mainstream Media journalists and the complicity of the donor community on money laundering and corruption in their own turf is no accident.

No one really knows what happened decade later with billions of additional foreign assistance and borrowings that reached critical stage.

At the meantime, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) – Foreign Agricultural Service’s 5/29/19 USDA GAIN Report Number: ET1904, claims, “Coffee is the most important foreign currency earner for Ethiopia. In addition to ensuring the volume and quality of coffee exports, exporters must properly manage the contracts.”

The report also reviles, coffee is priority of the government to earn foreign exchange.

The same report also claims, “Ethiopia exports coffee to over 60 countries. Based on the coffee export data in 2017/18, the principal export markets for Ethiopian coffee were: Germany (22 %), Saudi Arabia (16 %), United States of America (11%), Belgium (7 %), Sudan (6 %) and Italy (5 %)”. It also states;

“While most exporters assist the economy by supplying quality coffee to the international market, the government is also taking strict actions against those who fail to comply with their contracts. In March of 2019 alone 81 coffee exporters have been banned from trading with the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) because they defaulted on their contracts. Ethiopia has more than 400 coffee exporters, 395 coffee farmers who directly export coffee, and over 30 import-export companies who export coffee and use the foreign currency to import other materials like vehicles and construction inputs.”

With Germany leading importer of 22% of Ethiopian’s # 1 foreign exchange earing commodity of coffee, followed by China with the second commodity of oily seed followed by Switzerland with gold, it shouldn’t require economists, politician, journalists… from the IMF, EEA and IFPRI, EDRI nor the Donors to figure out; for almost three decades the performance of the Ethiopian economy is a repeat of the old colonial extractive economic regimes’ that created banana republics across Africa and, who may be responsible in the concerned government agencies colluding with ‘private actors’ in systemic nepotism and corruption at home and in export destination nations says more about willfully ignorant journalists that failed to uncover.

Interestingly, the whole ethnic clans and cliques  captured state-led systemic institutional corruption in coffee export business appeared to start in December of 2007 when the “First Germen Coffee Importer signed up for Ethiopia’s Coffee Initiative” according to the Corporate Social Responsibility Newswire sourcing WIPO — a UN Agency of Global Forum for Intellectual Property. The agreement was signed by the then Ethiopian Intellectual Property Office Director General Getachew Mengistie (pictured left) and the Head Councilor of the Business Affair Sector of the Ethiopian Embassy in Berlin Tsehaye Woldegebrile (with no public profile). A year later (2008) Mengistie left the agency and became an ‘intellectual property consultant and attorney based in Addis Ababa’  and authored a book titled ‘Intellectual Property as a Policy Tool for Development’ that apparently qualified him to be an African Scholar at the prestigious Yale University in the US.

At  the same time, the donors financed Ethiopian Commodity Exchange was established in 2008 by nonother than the infamous Former  IFPRI economist turn the Founder and CEO of the Exchange Dr Eleni Gebremedhin (pictured left) that went on rampage under PM Melse’s directives to force all coffee and oily seeds trades in the nation to be sold on the Exchange floor with the exception of “30 import-export companies who export coffee and use the foreign currency to import other materials like vehicles and construction inputs” to the benefit of clans and cliques captured private sectors led by Guna Trading House Plc — the #1 agriculture commodity exporter in the nation including, coffee and oily seed — the very meaning of state-sponsored institutional corruption at its best.

Ironically, Guna openly pride on its state-sponsored corruption in its own official website as “one of the corporate entity of Endowment Fund for Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT) engaged in exporting agriculture products, importing industrial input, distributing sister companies product and business representation/commission agency activities with an average of 100 million USD annual turnover” that somehow eluded the donor community, research institutions, Media establishments, anticorruption agencies … and yes, willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… that conveniently redefined private sector and corruption for the benefit of clan and cliques captured  ‘private sector’ and ‘private investment’ led development – defying the very meaning of private and institutional transparency on behalf of their sponsors not to mention the profession of economic itself in the making of a Banana Republic.

 

As a result, Germany that imports raw coffee from Ethiopia and 11 other coffee growing African countries not only became a major re-exporter of raw and processed coffee — surpassing all exported commodities of Ethiopia combined as well as all the 12 African coffee producing countries’ export combined just by importing and re-exporting coffee alone without growing a single coffee plant.

Interestingly,  in September 6, 2019 the Ethiopian Investment Commission sourcing the government run  Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) reported, EU funded  15-million-Euros coffee project launched and, quoted the Agriculture State Minster Sani Redi (pictured left) claiming; “the aim of the project is to  help increase the price of Ethiopian coffee in international market and strengthen the economy”.

Ironically, the full ENA report continentally left out reviles, EU “representative Dominique Davoux (pictured center) said on his part coffee production in Ethiopia will create jobs for many citizens”.

At the meantime, the infamous Addis Fortune report titled EU Seeds €10m to Support Coffee Production quoting (PhD), director-general of Ethiopian Coffee, Tea Development & Marketing Authority (pictures right) said “the project plans to increase the income of smallholder coffee farmers and actors in the coffee value chain, in turn increasing the benefit the country gets from the export of coffee.”

No one knows how much money EU supposedly provided, to whom and what string was attached to it and who may be the real beneficiary of the project willfully ignorant journalist failed to uncover or get their story straight.

Paradoxically, according Japan Times Jan 2019 article quoting Aaron Davis, the Head of coffee research at British Royal Botanical Garden Kew Center reported, “around 15 million Ethiopians are involved in coffee production, and annual exports have an estimated value of $1 billion”.

 

Apparently 15 million Ethiopians that are involved to produce a commodity with ‘an estimated value of $ 1 billion’ can “help increase price” and “create jobs for many citizens” by  EU $15-million-Euros or €10m ‘to increase the income of smallholder coffee farmers and actors in the coffee value chain’ and will “conserve the environment to retain the uniqueness of Ethiopian shade-grown coffee” is how willfully ignorant and donor-dependent economists, politicians, journalists, Investors… justify their livelihood.

 

At the meantime,  BMZ — the Germen Development Ministry cooperation with Ethiopia  pledging a total of 215.6 million euros to Ethiopia for the period 2018 to 2019. This include funding under transitional development assistance from the special ‘One WORLD-No Hunger’ initiative on displacement.” Accordingly, “since 2017, development cooperation has focused on three priority areas:

  • Vocational education
  • Agriculture and food security
  • Conservation and sustainable use of natural resources (biodiversity)”

 

It gets worse. A DW documentary titled “How Europe’s Agriculture Policy Hurts Africa reviled, Germany produced staple food products like grain and grain flower are sold cheaper in African markets than locally produced grain flowers and food products, thanks once again for donor-sponsored willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalist, investors… in a make-believe institutions like the Ethiopian Economic Association and Ethiopian Development Research Institute doing ‘researches’ over-and-over again to the predetermined outcome of their sponsors and to the benefit of make-believe ‘private investors’ in extractive investment ventures.  

Therefore, whether the IMF’s official policy or its African Director Amero Selase’s personal perspective on “Ethiopian Remarkable Progress Over More than a Decade” or ‘economic growth and transformation and domestic revenue mobilization and private sector investment’ reform nor Public-Private Partnerships under ethnic clans and cliques’ captured state with “substantial appropriation of the state and use of politics by private actors in a sweeping appropriation and a near wholesale intertwining of state resources and politics” as articulated by Janine R. Weddle; state sponsored corruption is real and a menace to the people of Ethiopia and the nation. Unfortunately, it will remain so as we witness the expansion of resource extractive investment in real-time sponsored by nonother than the same ‘development partners’, thanks again to the ingenuity of willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors that defy the reality of economic development and redefined ‘private sector’ to justify the systemic institutional corruption that benefit them well. After all, isn’t that what our wise people refer as የአባትህ ቤት ሲዘረፍ አብረህ ዝረፍ?

 

When the Prime Minster Office held its first official economic reform forum for a public discussion last summer hosted by Art TV (African Renascence Television) with willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… led by Dr Brook Taye representing the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development as a Senior Economic Advisor while simultaneously  manages A & A Capital Inc of Miami Beach, Florida  and Bruck Fikru of VOI Café Ltd, a coffee procurement agent for  Volcafe Specialty Coffee Corp  of Irvington, New York representing the private sector, who but willfully ignorant journalists to blame for failing to uncover as the usual when the ‘foxes guard the henhouse’ undermining economic reform within the PM Office.    

The infamous Addis Fortune that prides itself as the “largest independent English language business Media in Ethiopia” led by the current Chief Editor Fasika Taddese reported $10 Billion Economic Package reform announced by the PM Office by asking the same willfully ignorant economists, politicians, investors…, including Dr Eyob Tekalign Tolina,  ‘State Minster’ and Minster of Finance & Economic Development and  Manager of Ethiopian Public Private Consultative Forum of the World Bank Group while representing foreign equity fund investors and, the infamous Former EY East Africa Managing Partner and Investment

Adviser for the ruling party Zemdenhe Negatu turn Global Chairman of Fairfax African Private Equity Fund investor based in US parroting what is good for their ‘private investment’ is good for the people of Ethiopia. That alone should be enough to say; the largest established Media outfits in Ethiopia are in the business feeding the public fairytales and remained the main obstacle for reform as they were designed while the smallest Media outlets are struggling to put out the reality of the Ethiopian economy.

Regardless, what stood out in the Addis Fortune’s substandard report was the absence of addressing the elaborate nepotism and corruption of clans and cliques captured public and private institutions led by the ruling member TPLF party operatives pose as private actors.

At the meantime, world renowned Financial Times of London in June 4, 2019  article titledEthiopia Look to young technocrats to lead ambitious reform drive reviles, the driving force behind PM Abiy’s economic reform includes “Eyob Tolina at Finance Ministry (pictured left), Abebe Abebayehu at the Investment Commission (pictured Center) and Mamo Mihretu in the Prime Minster Office” (pictured right)  all present or former employees of donors led by World Bank and USAID.

But, what Tom Wilson of the Financial Time report failed to do was basic background investigation to discover;  ‘the young technocrats’ he labeled as “new generation with international experience appointed to turn around tightly controlled, state-led economy” not only their international experience comes working for donors led by the World Bank but for foreign private equity investment funds.

Even more fascinating about  ‘half-baked’ FT’s report was using Cepheus Capital, a London based private equity investment fund established in 2016 and led by expats as a source — “arguing that, as it was under Melese, the government would still prioritize growth and was likely to continue to take an interventionist approach related to land, industry and finance”.

It is obviously clear why Tom Wilson of FT failed to identify the principle of Cepheus Capital investors with the help of European Investment Bank as foreign private equity investment in Ethiopia is Kassaye (Kassahun) Kebede. The mysterious private fund manager/investor from New York to Ethiopia over a decade is purportedly a close associate with the late TPLF Chairman and PM of Ethiopia Melese Zenawi and inner circle. He is also the Founder and CEO of a New York based Panton Capital Management established in 2004 and the Founder and CEO of a Cayman Island based Panton Private Wealth Management established in 2009 with nearly a billion dollar private capital of unknown individuals under his management, according to U.S. Security and Exchange Commission  way before he established Cepheus Capital with his partner Berhane Demisse (pictures right) in 2016.

At the meantime, the private wealth investment and management guru Kassaye Kebede is not limited to private investment fund of undisclosed individuals to invest in Ethiopia. With his new partner he setup a London based venture Cepheus Capital to tap in on EU’s donors’ fund via European Investment Bank. When that wasn’t enough, the famous New York Billionaire Gorge Soros’ Open Society Foundation in October 2019 Press Release in unprecedented move announced Soros Economic Development Fund Joins Ethiopian Investment Fund. It reads;

“New York – The Open Societies Foundations are investing $10 million in the Cepheus Capital Growth Fund focused on supporting business development in Ethiopia, as part of its border commitment to support Ethiopia’s democratic and economic development.”

How a Foundation that pride itself supporting free media in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union nations ended up joining Cepheus Capital Growth Fund established in 2016 by Kassaye Kebede shows more; the Open Society is as Close Society as its critics claimed

What was even more fascinating, the claim; “The Soros Economic Development Fund’s investment is principally aimed at creating quality jobs particularly for young people and women in Ethiopia, including in less developed regions, in support of the government’s effort to reduce the country’s poverty rate.”

No one knows how the Soros’ Open Society Foundations’ partnerships with little vented expats run Cepheus Capital Growth Fund is going to “create quality jobs” for anyone.

Apparently, according to the same Press Release, “in December 2018, Patrick Gaspard, President of Open Society Foundations met Ethiopian’s prime minster Abiy Ahmed and offered the Foundations’ support for the government’s democratization objectives, particularly in the area of justice sector reform and strengthening institutions.”

Again, no one knows how “justice sector reform and strengthening institutions” turned out to be investing $10 million on Cepheus Capital Growth Fund established by two expats with unknown track record.

Kassaye is also one of the 21 members Advisory Council on privatization on state assets as well as 15 members’ Advisory Council of the Ethiopian Diaspora Trust Fund based in Washington, D.C. set up by PM Abiy Ahmed.

Therefore, it is clear why all relevant information about the principle persons of Cepheus Capital that was missing in Financial Times report of Tom Wilson is no accident.

Likewise, the willfully ignorant Bloomberg News journalist Nizar Manek in October 17, 2019 report titled “Ethiopia May Use Privatization Funds to repay State Lenders” by not identifying the lenders and inquiring the terms of the loan nor asking independent economists the implication but two government official’.

Five days later (October 22, 2019) the same Manek Bloomberg News reported Ethiopia Probs Possible Theft of Funds for Sugar claiming  — “Sugar Corp. debt amounts to about 70 billion birr ($2.37 billion), according to Brook Taye, senior adviser to the finance ministry” – the same government official  that also manages a Miami Beach, Florida based private venture A & A Capital Inc, ‘a Venture Capital  & Private Equity Firm’ established in April of 2016 and operate in Ethiopia led by the President/CEO by a name Adem Adem,  according to his LinkedIn profile.

No one knows how Bloomberg News assigned an Egyptian national Nizar Manek as Ethiopian correspondent based in Addis Ababa in the first place. But, if his several years of reporting on Ethiopia is any indication, he not only doesn’t follow basic journalistic inquiry but willfully ignore the reality of how an ethnic clans and cliques captured state operates ever since he became Ethiopian correspondent based in Addis Ababa for Bloomberg News a decade ago.

Meanwhile, dozens of willfully ignorant freelance journalists for foreign Medias have been putting out pure propaganda to prop up the apartheid regime of Ethiopia for over a decade. The most notable of them all are freelance journalist James Jeffrey, an ex-British military man turn business journalist in US, UK and Ethiopia and Neil Ford, that claims to be “a freelance journalists, consultant and analyst specializing in African affairs and energy sector” – redefining the profession of journalism itself.

In article titled James Jeffrey: Freelance journalist or Freelance Mercenary? …we identify African Business Magazine based in UK is where James Jeffery and Neil Ford’s substandard reporting are most welcomed.  The fact African Business Magazine is based in UK alone speaks volume; it is not about Africa business the Magazine is interested but something else altogether.

But, ever since the Ethiopian revolution against the ruling regime Woyane began in 2015, James Jeffery appears to abandon business reporting freelancing in the politics of terrorism outside his declared experience.  His latest article of December 4, 2019 titled “Fears Saudi-exported Extremism is Spreading throughout Africa’ freelancing for The American Conservative Magazine said it all.

Accordioning to Jeffery’s article; not the self-proclaimed representative of ethnic Tigray ruling member party TPLF warlords the source of ethnic and religious extremism in Ethiopia, but the symptom led by the infamous US national and self-proclaimed ethnic Oromo representative Jawar Mohammed. Unfortunately, it is all about undermining the new PM Abiy reform effort to unite Ethiopians that rattled the usual suspects that seek Jeffery’s service.

Even the famous Economist Magazine was not immune putting out fairytale reporting by its undisclosed willfully ignorant journalist[s] either. In its Nov 2, 2019 article titled “The Clash of Nationalism — Ethnic violence threatens to tear Ethiopia apart”  claiming, a US national and a self-declared Oromo ethnic clan activist turn politician and Media personality Jawar Mohammod is the cause should remind the public; mainstream Medias’ focus on the symptom than the cause of ‘ethnic violence’ is not by accident but by design.

Thus, according to The Economist’s article;

“underlining the unrest are two trends. The first is intra-Oromo power struggle embodied in rivalry between Jawar and Abiy. Jawar, who says he may run in the next year’s election, has loudly criticized the Prime Minister’s plan to form a national party to replace Ethiopia’s ruling multiethnic coalition. The second cause is competition between Oromo and Amhara. Since 1995, when the current constitution established nine ethnically based regions, politics has been a battle ground between rival nationalism. For much of the past three decades the Tigrayans, who are about 6% of the population, run the show.”

That is what the most celebrated publication in the world with no correspondent on the ground but one African correspondent in Johannesburg, South Africa and another African Editor in London responsible for covering the entire African continent (according to its own Media Directory) came up with explaining the current politics of Ethiopia.

Unfortunately, what was missing in the ‘half-baked’ report of the Economist was the cause of ethnic nationalism is nonother than the London based (the home of The Economist) Tigray People  Liberation Front led by its late Chairman turn  President of the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) until 1995 and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi until his death due to his undisclosed illness in 2012 that with the help of European governments led by UK that singlehandedly established ethnic apartheid rule the Magazine refer as “multiethnic coalition” and “the current constitution” that set the stage for ethnic apartheid party-sponsored ethnic violence and corruption that came with it way before TPLF became the ruling “multiethnic coalition” member party of Ethiopia.

Why the Economist ignored the source of ‘ethnic violence’ and zeroed in on the symptom — ‘incitement of violence’ led by Jawar Mohammod that grew up under ethnic apartheid Ethiopia says more about the willfully ignorant unnamed journalist[s] of The Economist Magazine that conveniently redefined apartheid than ‘the clash of nationalism’ in Ethiopia.

Sadly, even the esteemed journalist[s] at The Economist with all the resources at their disposal didn’t even do basic background investigation on who is behind the US national Jawar Mohammod that shuttles back-and-forth from his US base to cause havoc advocating to sustain ethnic apartheid rule in his birth country of Ethiopia from his adapted country of America that abolished apartheid half a century ago.

For starter, unless The Economist wittingly advocate to sustain ethnic apartheid rule in Ethiopia, there is no explanation how a publication of that caliber elevates a cult like ethnic clan politician and Media operator like a US national Jawar Mohammod without the context of who may be behind him — reminiscent of those that attempted and failed to sustain the old apartheid South Africa.

Even more disheartening is the willfully ignorant homegrown US journalists Tsion Girma of Voice of America (VOA) Amharic recent interview with Jawar Mohammod. Like the Economist, focusing on the symptom (Jawar) to cover up for the cause (TPLF warlords) that outsourced ethnic violence, she has proven the dedication of willfully ignorant journalists to sustain the status qua, unfortunately on the expenses of US taxpayers. Had she asked the same exact question to TPLF warlords decades ago, ‘Jawarism’ that piggybacks on decades of TPLF warlords’ ethnic violence wouldn’t be a blimp in Ethiopian politics. It is a classic example of projection or what our people like to refer as አህያውን ፈርቶ ዳውላውን.

Willfully ignorant journalists that pivots the reality should remind readers a book titled “selling Apartheid: South African Global Propaganda war’ authored by Ron Nixon. In his Aug 2016 article titled ‘how South African racist government waged propaganda war in UK against ending apartheid rule led by Mandela and the role shadowy lobbyist and  willfully ignorant journalists play that resembles what TPLF and surrogates led lobbying and propaganda outfits did and continue to do to undermine the new PM Abiy reform effort from ending the last apartheid rule standing in the world is astonishing.

Ironically, the display of  willfully ignorant economist, politicians, investors… backed by willfully ignorant journalists’ pivoting the reality of ethnic clans and cliques captured public and private institutions to the desired end is what Peter Block in his book titled ‘The Structure of Belonging referred as “the core currency of economists” that operates out of “the context of scarcity and self-interest” — not to mention their complicity on state-sponsored violence, nepotism and corruption that benefit them and their enablers.

The dilemma of homegrown and foreign journalists ‘to be, or not to be’  watchdog journalists on behalf the people VS. lapdog journalists on behalf of the power to be is real and more concerning for the reform effort than any single public or private institutions that pivots the reality and, will remain so for the foreseeable future to come until enough watchdog journalists stand up to say enough of lapdog journalism across the board and expose them for what they really are.

Two decades of Marxism followed by three decades of ethnic apartheid rule that casted a shadow on the democratization and economic liberalization of Ethiopia notwithstanding, reforming ethnic clans and cliques captured state sponsored by massive foreign aid-and-debt created aid-dependent and willfully ignorant political, social, economic elites that drive the policy agenda is not an easy task for anyone let alone for a new PM within surrounded by willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… and their sponsors that diligently work to sustain the status qua to secure their petty interest over the larger public interest visible for a necked eye. That is why they kept dodging the raw reality that shows the incompatibility of their petty interest over the larger public interest or what our wise people like to frame as ‘ሌባ ለአመሉ ዳቦ ይልሳ’.

Regardless, the first prudent step of any reform in the right direction on long journey of democratization and economic liberalization to take would be to acknowledging the existence of “the political Marketplace of Money, War and the Business of Power” of ethnic clans and cliques captured apartheid state and   “the use of politics by private actors in a sweeping appropriation and a near wholesale intertwining of state resources and politics” led by the ruling member party TPLF and taking the appropriate actions to end apartheid rule and nepotism and corruption that naturally come with it by cleaning up all public and private institutions.

The question of where to start and for whose benefit (beside to the benefit of the people of Ethiopia) is yet to be agreed by one-and-all elites, especially by the ruling elites led by TPLF operatives that feel entitled to do business as the usual.

For starter, in the words of the General Secretory of Reporters Without Boarders Christophe Deloire; “none of the issues which humanity is facing will be solved without access to information”.

Therefore, the ‘cart before the horse’ reform, no matter how it is presented can only go as  far as the financiers and the willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors…wanted it to go without changing the underline cause of the problem – lack of access to information’ thus, the absence of institutional transparency and accountability at all level that would singlehandedly end nepotism and corruption of the ruling elites and free the people of Ethiopia from diversion propaganda for the people to make prudent political, social and economic decisions for their future.

In that regard, no one articulated the present development reform dilemma of Ethiopia better than Dr Tsegaye Tegenu. In a December 2019 article titled Homegrown Economic Reform and Regional Development in Ethiopia he once again reiterated; “there is no reference to the importance of regional development neither in the objective nor in the outlined pillars of the reform program. This is not surprising in a country were mainstream economic assumptions is often used to shape development policy. Mainstream economics is either space neutral or space blind.  The structural and sectoral policy of Ethiopia, both in current and past government, focus on specific instruments (such as infrastructure investment) and ignore the geographical concrete patterns in which these instruments are deployed” – reinforcing; lack of access to information in clan and cliques captured public and private institutions to end state-sponsored nepotism and corruption that came with it remained.

Therefore, in clans-and-cliques captured state where information is a ‘Weapon of Mass Destruction’, in the word of the Former World Bank Director and the Founder of Transparency International (TI) Peter Eigen; “corruption is the biggest cause of poverty in the world, of violence, of impoverishment and hopelessness in many societies”.

 

Thus, any economist, politician, journalist, investor… or their sponsors that don’t understand the cost of what economist call ‘information asymmetry’ on society and the nepotism and corruption that follows should be removed from making any public policy decision.

The ‘reformist’ Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed is juggling between the rights and liberties and the economic opportunities of the people of Ethiopia Verses the interest of ethnic clans-and-cliques & partners backed by willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… sponsored by nonother than the donors.

The Prime Minster would be advised to take to heart the advice of seasoned economists, politicians, journalists and anticorruption crusaders to end information asymmetry thus end state sponsored nepotism and corruption that cause poverty, violence, impoverishment and hopelessness and yes underdevelopment his new Prosperity Party want to address.

In recent press briefing on the formation of Prosperity Party of Ethiopia, PM Abiy took the second boldest step in the right direction (after decriminalization of political decent and free speech) since he came to power to end the last antiquated ethnic apartheid regime remaining in the world on the ash of ‘the political Marketplace of Money, War and the Business of Power of  the ruling EPDRF elites.

The reaction to PM’s latest bold move is a tell-tell sign; who is behind sustaining TPLF instigated ethnic apartheid rule and why.

But, a formation of a national ‘Prosperity Party’ that embraced ‘truth and knowledge’ as a guiding principle won’t be possible until willfully ignorant economist, politicians, journalists, investors…  that infested public institutions, including the Office of the Prime Minster are forced to tell the truth about themselves and respect the knowledge of their profession to end nepotism and corruption.

As they say, ‘charity began at home’. Therefore, full disclosure of all willfully ignorant ‘technocrat’ in every public agency and private institution starting from The Office of Prime Minster is the ultimate reform that is needed where ‘truth and knowledge’ can be practiced by professionals to serve the people of Ethiopia. After all, beyond theory, practicing ‘truth and knowledge’ base reform requires access to information to figure out who-is-who violating the rights and liberty and the economic opportunity of the people in a nation under the mercy of donors for almost three decades.

For instant, the fact TPLF’s principle ethnic warlord turn oligarch  and one of the mastermind of ethnic apartheid rule in Ethiopia Dr Arkebe Oqubay posed as State Minster and Special Economic Advisor in the Prime Minster Office along his entourages would help in the reform efforts says, there is a long way to go to end the ethnic clans and cliques’ ‘political Marketplace of Money, War and the Business of Power and the nepotism and corruption that came with it’.

The 2018 UK-Ethiopia Trade and Investment Forum hosted by the London based Developing Market Associates where Dr Arkebe Oqubay Forum representing the Ethiopian government showing up with shadowy TPLF operatives posed as investors is a good illustration of nepotism and party sponsored corruption is alive and well at present as it was in the 2015 UK-Ethiopia Trade and Investment Forum led by the infamous TPLF oligarch turn Health and Foreign Minister and WHO General Secretory Dr Tedros Adhanom.

After all, the ruling party sponsored oligarchs posed as government officials promoting trade and investment is the very definition of state sponsored nepotism and corruption that eluded willfully ignorant journalists and concerned national and international organizations’ officials, including the anticorruption and investment commission officials.

Given PM Abiy became a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for his effort to bring about peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and reconciliation between self-appointed representative of the people of Ethiopia fighting for power and privilege, it remain to be seen if he is as bold or capable enough to go further to end ethnic clans and cliques’ impunity in what his Nobel Prize Lauriat counterpart Rigoberta Menchu Tum of Guatemala  for her human right activism underlined; “without strong watchdog institutions, impunity becomes the very foundation upon which systems of corruption are built”. After all, isn’t that the foundation TPLF led Ethiopia brought to the people that continue to cost lives, livelihoods, rights and liberties and economic opportunities in blood and treasure?

Ultimately, in the eyes of the people of Ethiopia; dismantling ethnic apartheid and ‘the foundation up on which the system of corruption is built’ will make-or-break PM Abiy’s legacy. That implies, TPLF led clans-and-cliques affiliated parasitic enterprises and oligarchs that dominate the political, social and economic landscape of Ethiopia must be dismantled with no question asked.

The recent death and distraction led by Jawar Mohammed, a self-proclaimed ethnic Oromo representative, self-proclaimed independent Media CEO for home audience and ‘peaceful’ movement activist and political analysts for international audience is the unfortunate outcome of a typical diaspora elite in an ethnic apartheid ‘political marketplace of money, war and the business of Power’  that consumed a new generation of Ethiopian elites at home and abroad as it was instigated by the usual enablers of the self-proclaimed ethnic Tigray representative turn PM of Ethiopia at home and African stateman abroad Melse Zenawi, just because willfully ignorant economist, politicians, journalists, investors… looked the other way to the rebirth of ethnic apartheid rule in Ethiopia about the  same  time it was buried for good in South Africa.

In the words of Rayan Hanley, the author of ‘Content Warfare’;

“Typical is a murder of thought. The defiler of ideas, the jailer of genius. Typical is the synapse you’ve already burned into genius brain of yours, and, typical leads right to the lizard brain.

The lizard brain wants us all to be the same. A heard of cattle. Middle management. The lizard brain tells us to avoid trouble. “Don’t rock the boat”, says the lizard brain. And we listen.

Like many willfully ignorant politicians of Ethiopia, Jawar Mohammod’s lizard brain like his late mentor Melse Zenawi believe one thing; ‘we are all herd of cattle’ in the ethnic ‘political marketplace of money, war, and business of power’ waiting for instruction from our self-appointed shepherds on behalf of their sponsors to commit corruption and crime against humanity.

Afterall, the simple rule, ‘if it is not right – don’t do it. If it is not true – don’t say it’ seems lost in the willfully ignorant minds of the elites just because their petty interest outweighs the rights and liberties and the economic opportunities of millions of their compatriots.

Whether the reality-free  economist turn IMF African Director Aemero Selase or an ethnic warlord turn politician and Media personality at home  and political analyst and human right activists and scholar abroad Jawar Mohammed or the willfully ignorant unnamed journalist of Economist Magazine that came up with half-baked report, like many of their homegrown or foreign peers in every profession, their ‘moral crowdedness and intellectual corruption’ visible for necked eye must be challenged primarily by their silent peers and professional journalists that live up to their vocation.

Prime Minster Abiy should be aware, no nation overcame violation of the people’s rights and liberties nor underdevelopment and poverty ‘without access to information’ and “without strong watchdog institutions” that would dismantle “the very foundation upon which systems of corruption are built” despite 10s of thousands of donors-sponsored ‘research’ conducted by willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… to nowhere. After all, the PM’s reform primary responsibility is not appeasing those that withhold information for the obvious reason but to empower the people of Ethiopia with access to information.

Opposition politicians would also be better off if they stop playing cat-and-mouse game to milk the ethnic ‘political marketplace of money, war and the business of power’ for political expediency and focus on their willfully ignorant counterparts in every public and private institutions that withhold information to do their enables bidding. Dismantling ‘the very foundation upon which systems of corruption are built’ requires and demands access to information and strong watchdog institutions. After all, their primary responsibility should be to free every institution that matters to the public from party affiliated operatives and subordinates on behalf of the people.

More importantly, the people of Ethiopia in general and the youth in particular will continue to subordinate their rights and liberty and the integrity of the nation for self-appointed ethnic clan leaders and their willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… if they don’t challenge the ethnic apartheid state andthe very foundation upon which the systems of corruption was built” in what the legendary American public intellectual Noam Chomsky referred as “the moral crowdedness and intellectual corruption are the natural concomitants of unchallenged privilege”.

PM Abiy made many profound statements recently challenging ‘the moral crowdedness and intellectual corruption of the political elites including, ‘no longer political power by the blood as oppose by the ballot of the people of Ethiopia’ in line with his new Prosperity Party slogan of ‘truth of knowledge’.  What he came short was, the one-and-only weapon the people should have to make their ballot count is access to information as oppose those that ruled or aspire to rule spilling their blood with ‘donated’ guns.

The very concept of Medmer demands; full disclosure of who-is-who depriving the people of Ethiopia access to information posed as government and nongovernmental official and private actor that continue to undermine the reform effort. To free the people of Ethiopia from centuries of crimes of “taxation without representation” that kept the nation a Banana Republic must be accountable and removed.

“The political Marketplace of Money, war and the business of Power” will end and replaced by the Marketplace of individual liberty, peace and the business of Democracy only when access to information is possible to force willfully ignorant economists, politicians, journalists, investors… embrace reality on behalf of the people than fairytale on behalf of their enablers.

Only that “Truth and Knowledge” practiced would free the people. Anything else is hogwash.

 

The post Development 101 for Willfully Ignorant Economists, Politicians, Journalists, investors… of Ethiopia appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar News/Breaking News.

Why Egypt is Winning on the Diplomatic Front

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Aklog Birara (Dr.)

Ethiopia began the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a monumental project estimated to cost $4 billion in 2011, with fanfare and ceremony. I welcomed this initiative that was conceived by Emperor Haile Selassie but made virtually unattainable because of Egyptian rigidity and the prevailing diplomatic conditions at the time.

I continue to contend that Ethiopia serves as the origin of 90 percent of Nile waters and has a legitimate right not only to finish the GERD for electric power generation; but also, to construct other dams for irrigation. Egypt’s colonial position of “historical and natural rights” over the Abbay River and other tributaries of the Nile is no longer a winning proposition.

In my considered opinion, Egypt and its allies are trying to undermine Ethiopia’s development objectives by bolstering weaponizing ethnic and religious division. The widespread instability, arms trafficking, robbery, lawlessness and rebellion throughout Ethiopia is deliberate and well financed to dismantle Ethiopia. The ethnic-federal system and administrative structure that the TPLF with support from other ethnic parties and foreign governments imposed on the Ethiopian people has diminished Ethiopian national identity and replaced it with ethnic identity.

Ethiopia is now porous, vulnerable and weak. Its intuitions cater more to ethnic and religious elites and less to Ethiopian national goals. “Amhara, Oromo, Tigre etc. first” is a mantra that diminishes Ethiopian nationalism. This is the reason why Ethiopia in 2020 is identified as a “failing or failed state.” Remember the old adage “You reap what you sow.”  The seeds of dismantlement were sown when the current nationality and language-based constitution was formalized. Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that incorporated secession. It is the only county in Africa that legalized ethnic political formation, with the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) that has now morphed into the Prosperity Party as Ethiopia’s pioneer in the ethnicization of politics.

While the ethnic coalition may have evolved, its roots, political culture, ideology, structure and institutional making are still intact. This setting diminishes Ethiopia’s capacity and resolve to defend its national interests. Its adversaries, including Egypt take advantage of this internal weakness.     

Despite this disadvantage, I suggest strongly that the most reasonable policy option is for Egypt, Ethiopia and North Sudan to agree on an equitable and fair position that serves all countries. Ethiopia won’t remain weak and fragmented. Accordingly, allowing Ethiopia to finish the GERD is a prerequisite for future win-win options. If Egypt refuses to budge, Ethiopia should revert to other options, including constructions of numerous irrigation dams throughout the country. Irrigation dams will, in fact, have serious and adverse impacts on water volume than hydroelectric dams; and will affect Egypt.

Egypt should stop insisting that the filling of the Dam takes over many decades to ensure that Egypt is not affected. This position penalizes Ethiopia and reduces the economic benefits that accrue from Ethiopia’s investment. Ethiopia must not be penalized to mitigate Egyptian fears. The current impasse that United States, the World Bank and others are trying to mediate should not delay the timely completion of the GERD.

Egypt must honor international law and standards that every civilized nation accepts. Equally, the government of Ethiopia must be firm and unwavering. It must apply diplomatic pressure on Egypt; and must muster the will and resolve to defend Ethiopian national interests. Ethiopian opposition parties must support the project and express anger and resentment against Egypt’s proxy wars and propaganda.

Why does the impasse persist?

The primary reason is this. Egypt insists that it should not allow a decrease of an ounce of water from its “historical” allotment that it granted itself with the consent of the British and its Sudanese cohorts. Ethiopia and other Sub-Saharan African riparian states were treated as irrelevant and unworthy of participation. This perception does no longer hold water. Egypt has to accept that it is dealing with a rising Black Africa against which it won’t win in the long term. Africans deserve equitable treatment.

Ethiopia needs to stand firm.

Egypt can no longer defend its “historical and natural rights” position in any reasonable international court as long as Ethiopian officials deploy patriotic and skilled diplomats and technical experts in defense of Ethiopia’s legitimate position.

Ethiopia must show national resolve and strength.

Sadly, for Ethiopia, Egypt has other tools that it has deployed with aplomb. It is called proxy wars. It identifies ethnic and religious silos and vulnerabilities in Ethiopia; finances agents and saboteurs everywhere; creates insecurities and uncertainties; and promotes a deliberate program of Ethiopia’s Balkanization and dismemberment with the intent of continuing Egyptian hegemony over Nile waters in perpetuity. It penetrates core institutions such as security and defense. It propagates propaganda by hiring subversives etc.

Egypt would have been unable to do the above and more without internal agents and surrogates. A strong and unified Ethiopian federal government leadership would deal with these pockets of entry and vulnerabilities immediately and forcefully by going after and arresting and jailing agents such as ethnic extremists and religious fundamentalists. Colleges and universities are among the centers of Egyptian penetration. For example, Amhara college and university students outside the Amhara region are subjected to the worst form of inhumane treatment in Ethiopian history. Among the culprits are agents of external forces such as Egypt and Iran. At least 10 Amhara students have been killed or hacked. Girls are abducted and raped in day light. Abduction of girls is identical to the case of Nigerian girls abducted by Boko Haram. At least 10 young people have been murdered or hacked to death. An estimated 40 to 50 thousand Amhara students, most of them in Oromia, have been expelled. Many have been beaten and dehumanized.

Where in Africa does such inhumanity against students have taken place and have been tolerated? Why does the global media ignore such crimes against girls and boys?  Why do Ethiopian opposition parties and academics ignore to voice their anger and frustration?

Tragically, Amhara students who protested against whole sale murders and expulsions have been arrested and or dismissed from their schools in the Amhara region. For all practical purpose, there is no regional or federal leadership that stands for human rights and the rule law in Ethiopia.

Who benefits from these cruelties and inhumane treatments? Egypt, ethnic elites and fundamentalists, of course. Who does the bidding of anti-Ethiopian forces?

There is ample evidence to show that federal and regional authorities are now part and parcel of the problem with regard to the mistreatment of Amhara students. Ethiopia today is identified as a failing nation, unheard of even under the TPLF dominated regime. A failed or failing state does not protect its citizens. A stable state does.

What is the proof of Ethiopia’s failed or failing state?

  1. Extremists, including Boko-Haram, Al-Shabab and other look alkies are thriving
  2. Ethnicity and ethnic fragmentation are widespread
  3. You cannot afford to travel and expect to return home alive
  4. Personal insecurity is at an all-time high
  5. Investments are being destroyed
  6. Land and property prices are at an all time high and profiteers are every where
  7. Robberies and armament shipments arms trafficking are rampant
  8. Regional and federal police are either incapable of ensuring law and order or are complicit in the acts
  9. Inhumane and cruel treatments are normalized, for instance, 7 children who work as shepherds in the Amhara region were murdered
  10. Unknown armed groups roam in some parts of Ethiopia and demand ransoms
  11. The rule of law is remains unaddressed
  12. Criminals are not hold responsible for crimes

Ethiopia’s worsening humanitarian crisis is best illustrated by the recent UN report and call that as many as 10 million Ethiopians, most of them in Oromia and Somali regions would need emergency food aid over the coming months.

At least 3 million Ethiopian remain displaced.

Further, Ethiopia continues to suffer from an unsustainable debt level and from crushing high unemployment of youth. This fact alone contributes to Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities. This environment offers a fertile ground for extremist forces that exploit it in serving their narrow and short-term interests as described by the International Criss Group and by Foreign Policy.

It is against these serious and dangerous scenarios of existential threat for Ethiopia and the wellbeing of its 115 million people that the current government is proposing an election.

Whether we accept it or not, Ethiopian ethnic elites, home grown ethnicsts, terrorists and fundamentalists that are also re-writing Ethiopia’s history via new curriculum are doing Egypt’s bidding. They are determined to destroy Ethiopia.

This environment favors Egypt and not Ethiopia.

I shall provide a few illustrative examples by comparing Egypt’s political economy with Ethiopia’s to hammer my argument.

  1. Egypt possesses the largest consumer market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); while Ethiopia is endowed with Africa’s second largest population and possesses one of the world’s largest water towers.
  2. Egypt’s economy is the most diversified in Africa; while Ethiopia’s still agriculture based.
  3. Egypt’s private sector is thriving while Ethiopia’s is dominated by party and state-owned enterprises.
  4. Egypt attracted more than $2.6 billion in American Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); while Ethiopia’s is a miniscule half billion from the U.S. during the same period.
  5. By 2030, Egypt plans to provide more microfinance to women in rural areas; and intends to create an estimated 100,000 jobs in rural areas; and 25 percent of bank loans shall be channeled to small and medium enterprises while Ethiopia’s is still unknown.
  6. Egypt tries to scuttle Ethiopia’s GERD while it plans to build the largest solar park destination in Africa with intent to generate 4 million new jobs for its people.
  7. Egypt’s growth pillars include energy, science and technology, research, health services, investments in its female workforce of 35 percent in 2030 and 750,000 graduates and jobs each year while Ethiopia is unable to provide personal security for its college and other high-level graduates in place.
  8. Egypt is at least stable; Ethiopia is not.

Egypt is led by a nationalist and patriotic regime.

  1. Ethiopia’s agriculture sector dominates at 34.8 percent and industry at 21. 6 percent in 2019 and the services sector a huge 43. 6 percent of GDP.
  2. Egypt plans to attract more than 10 million visitors each year and plans to invest $675 billion in new physical infrastructure investments in the coming 20 years while Ethiopia suffers from internal insecurity and lawlessness.
  3. Ethiopia has enormous potential for tourism but is unsafe. Its physical and social infrastructure is undeveloped. Internet technology is undeveloped. Electric and water services are erratic. Personal security and safety are not assured.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia has enormous potential for cultural, historical site, physical and other forms of tourism. It can attract at least 1 million Chinese visitors each year and millions more from other parts of the globe. It must, first and foremost provide safety and security for its own citizens.

Egypt has finally restored security. It is therefore able to reattract millions of tourists each year.

Despite corruption and a repressive regime, Egypt offers more opportunities. Its economic development model is based on boosting domestic productivity, the private sector, capacity building and employment met generation for youth and females. The private sector dominates economic and social life.

In comparing Ethiopia and Egypt, what concerns me most is that Egypt’s private sector shall account for $230 billion of investments, with Egyptian private individuals owning more assets compared to Ethiopia’s private sector that will continue to suffer from miniscule private sector participation and ownership of private assets. This log-jam in policy must be broken soon.

Ethiopia’s youth is among the most disempowered in Africa and the Middle East. The private sector is among the least developed in Africa.

In summary:

  1. Ethiopia must provide safety and security for all its youth. Its government leadership at all levels, especially federal authorities including the Prime Minister must show the courage, determination and resolve to stop lawlessness, robbery, murder and burnings etc. Criminals, including those who abuse human rights must be held accountable.

 

  1. Ethiopian authorities must restore public confidence by resorting law and order; by guaranteeing the safety and security of each and every Ethiopian. They can demonstrate resolve by announcing a special proclamation that each and every student in the country has the full support and backing of the government; and that anyone who transgresses and abuses students will be brought to a court of law and will face severe punishment.

 

  1. Authorities can and should reinstate all students expelled from their campuses. Parents whose children were murdered or violated must be compensated. If authorities can’t provide security, they must allow each and every student to go back to their regional state and attend education there.

 

  1. Authorities must go after extremist, jihadist and terrorist forces and hate mongers. They must go after sources of funding of extremist and hate groups, and apply diplomatic pressures against governments including Egypt that support and fund surrogates.

 

  1. Authorizes must first and foremost give priority to protecting and preserving Ethiopia and defending the security of all of its 115 million people. This is the first priority of the federal government before any election.

 

  1. Authorities must no longer allow a porous and undefended border. Weapons traffickers and merchants of death must be punished and source of arms purchases must be stopped.

 

  1. Authorities must be persuaded to hold an all-inclusive conference and arrive at a national consensus on the future of Ethiopia before any election. Ethiopia’s centrality must be acknowledged and defended by all Ethiopians.

 

  1. Finally, the government of Ethiopia must stand firm with regard to the timely completion of the GERD.

 

 

1/17/2020

 

The post Why Egypt is Winning on the Diplomatic Front appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar: Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

Can Ethiopia hold a credible 2020 election?

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PM Abiy Ahmed, upon coming to power in April 2018, promised to hold democratic, credible polls with a clear timeline

Addıs Getachew Tadesse   |

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia

The much anticipated announcement of voting day for the 2020 elections in Ethiopia came just on Wednesday – it is tentatively proposed for Aug. 16.

The stakes are high, and controversy has already begun over the timetable, which the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has rolled out as part of an electoral calendar for 2020.

Security and seasonal considerations came up as major concerns expressed by leaders of political parties vying for seats in the coming elections.

“Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections,” said outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party.

He was referring to ongoing ethnic-based clashes over the past couple of years across the country that in recent months had made their way into universities where tens of students were killed in gang-like clashes between students grouped along ethnic lines.

There has also been unprecedented hostage taking of students, including female students from a university in the country’s southwest last week. The news, which was played down in national media, sent shockwaves across the nation. Little has emerged on the fate of the girls, who are rumored to also be victims of rape.

Further, a splinter faction of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) called Shane was reported to have been waging war in a southwestern area of Kelem Wollega in the Oromia region, and according to witnesses, a clash between OLF-Shane and government troops last week bordered on a serious battle for ground, not just a shootout of sorts.

“The current security situation in Ethiopia does not allow for the conduct of a credible election,” Lidetu said after attending the unveiling event of the electoral calendar by NEBE.

The ruling party – a former ruling coalition of four parties that recently morphed into a unified entity called the Prosperity Party (PP) – negated that idea of a security shortfall though.

According to the PP, the nation is prepared to embark on its sixth edition of parliamentary elections that come every five years and the government will work to ensure law and order across the nation.

“The government has the preparedness and the capacity to ensure security across the land,” it said.

OLF leader Dawud Ibsa was of a different opinion.

The OLF is a hitherto outlawed party that had waged an armed struggle against the now-defunct administration that ruled Ethiopia with an iron grip since 1991.

Soft-spoken but sharp with an ice-cold seriousness of purpose, Dawud — who returned to Ethiopia to embark on peaceful participation in the political life of the country after the coming to power of Africa’s youngest leader, Abiy Ahmed, in 2018 — presents seasonal reasons for objecting to the new electoral timetable just put out by the election board.

“August is a rainy season when rivers will bulge, making it difficult for people of the countryside to move about,” he said.

The election should be held in or before June — prior to the onset of the main rainy season, that is.

The Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice Party (EZEMA), whose policies are diametrically opposite to those of the OLF, has joined the latter in expressing the same concern.

“The fact of the proposed election date being in August would create logistical problems,” said EZEMA’s Public Relations Head Natnael Feleke.

While the argument goes on, looking at it from the point of view of NEBE, the electoral timetable appears to be a willy-nilly necessity.

The Ethiopian Constitution stipulates that the next parliament should commence work in the first week of October.

“The election calendar we are rolling out was prepared in consideration of constitutional provisions,” said Birtukan Mideksa, head of NEBE.

The former opposition politician, who endured years of imprisonment in the pre-2018 era, Birtukan as head of NEBE seems to enjoy bi-partisan support.

Parties to look out for

The upcoming election promises to be a hotly contested one. That is if the government keeps its promise of making the process democratic.

Parties to look out for will be the Prosperity Party, a former four-party ruling coalition that just morphed into one unified entity by bringing many regionally active parties to the fold. Its predecessor was the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which ruled the country for nearly 28 years with an iron fist, and in a system head-over-heels corrupt.

The EPRDF was formed by guerrilla fighters who controlled the country after defeating the Derg regime of Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led the coalition as a mover and shaker. Now it has distanced itself from the PP, and the status under which TPLF will vie in the upcoming election is yet to be made clear.

The party that promises to put up a fierce challenge to the PP is the OLF, a party with a huge mass base across Oromia, the most populous region in the country. It supports ethnic federalism.

EZEMA is also a party to reckon with in the upcoming election. It is led by the very well-known Berhanu Nega, whose coalition swept up Addis Ababa and other constituencies in the 2005 election – an election that remained in the minds of Ethiopia to be the most democratic, considering the process, but one that saw bloody post-election days.

The nation, bracing for a democratic election, should have in mind those days of violence.

Many politicians believe that the coming election offers Ethiopia one last chance to come out as a democratic country or fall back into tyrannical rule like past regimes or into disorder and mayhem.

The stakes, many agree, are high this time around.

The post Can Ethiopia hold a credible 2020 election? appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar: Ethiopian News/Breaking News.


Flashpoint on the Nile: Egypt Destabilizes Ethiopia

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By Aklog Birara (Dr.)

A flashpoint in current diplomatic relations in Africa today that can potentially lead to war is Egypt’s continued assertion that it will continue to exercise its hegemony over the Nile.

Historically, Egypt’s relations with Ethiopia has been characterized by mutual mistrust and suspicion. The core policy issue behind this intractable problem is Egypt’s belief that its hegemony over Nile waters is dependent on Ethiopia’s internal ethnic and religious divisions, its continued socioeconomic, technological, national security and defense backwardness; and its adversarial relations with its neighbors, especially Eritrea and the rest of the Horn.

The Islamist regime led by Mohammed Morsi echoed Egyptian anxieties and mistrust of Ethiopia, called on Egyptians to prepare for war against Ethiopia; and vowed to ensure that Egyptian hegemony over the Nile will continue unchallenged.

Egypt’s ultranationalist zeal and warmongering posture towards Ethiopia went against all of the new norms that upstream and downstream African nations were discussing and negotiating under the auspices of multilateral agencies including the UN, the African Union, the World Bank, UNDP and others.

I recall vividly that, at the time, the World Bank had established a special Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) unit at its Headquarters in Washington, D.C. The unit housed volumes of documents and reference materials on the subject. Experts familiar with the subject used to tell me that a new cooperative agreement was in the works. A new paradigm of thinking in in public diplomacy seemed to emerge. Peaceful resolution of conflicts on the Nile seemed possible.

Mohammed Morsi was overthrown and replaced by General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Unlike the fundamentalist and ultranationalist that he replaced, General El-Sisi offered a refreshing and new perspective that took into account fundamental changes that had taken place in the rest of Africa, especially Ethiopia. He called for a new diplomatic relationship with Ethiopia that is “informed by cooperation and love, not hatred and belligerence,” as captured by the Ethiopian Reporter in 2015.

By projecting this statesmanship posture, General El-Sisi seemed to embrace dialogue, discussion and negotiation rather than warmongering and belligerence against Ethiopia. This new spirit of cooperation and mutuality was welcomed by Ethiopia because it differed radically from previous positions Egypt held. It was implicit that El-Sisi had acknowledged Ethiopia’s legitimate rights to construct the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). He also declared that Egypt will henceforth stop supporting proxy wars with the intent of destabilizing Ethiopia.

This new attitude on the part of Egypt was further bolstered by a welcome people to people relations that had begun to strengthen mutual cooperation and reduce mistrust and mutual suspicion. Bilateral agreements on trade and investment were reached.

Whether adversarial or friendly, Ethio-Egyptian relations go back to Pharaonic times. A special feature in this contentious relationship is the tie or link between the Ethiopian and Egyptian Orthodox faiths. Egypt has leveraged this connection to advance its penetration of Ethiopian society and to influence public policy.

In the light of this historical, cultural and religious connection, His Holiness Abune Mathias, Patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church paid a visit to Egypt and renewed relations between the sister faiths interrupted by the Socialist Military regime before the TPLF/EPRDF took power in 1991.

It is important to note that the interruption was prompted by open Egyptian military, armaments, logistics and intelligence support to secessionist groups including the Eritrean Peoples’ Liberation Front (EPLF), the Tigray People’s Liberator Front (TPLF), the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Oromo Liberation (OLF) and other fronts.

For many decades, Egypt and other Arab countries had vowed to dislodge Ethiopia from its red-sea ports. This scheme required Egyptian interventions on multiple fronts including faith.

El-Sisi pronounced that change in relations would serve both Ethiopia and Egypt. The question in my mind is whether this posture is another Egyptian ploy or more fundamental.

In my view, Egypt’s desire to strengthen its relations with Ethiopia on multiple fronts—faith, investment, tourism, trade etch— has much more to do with its determination to apply new and sophisticated surveillance and spying techniques on the ground than the advancement of Ethiopia’s development. Egypt still wants a fragmented, weak and underdeveloped Ethiopia.

In its negotiations with Ethiopia concerning the GERD, Egypt continues to insist on physical site visits by its technical experts and by so-called independent experts that can do its bidding.

I shall present a compelling argument why Egypt should not be allowed by Ethiopia to conduct direct and close site visits. The GERD is an Ethiopian project. Ethiopia has sovereignty over the project; and not Egypt. Accordingly, site visits by Egypt contravenes Ethiopia’s sovereign rights. Egyptian authorities must respect this right the same way that they expect other counties including Ethiopia to respect their rights to protect the Aswan Dam or the Suez Canal from global scrutiny. Would they let Israel scrutinize these sites? The answer is no.

Turkey has been building dams on the Tigris and Euphrates River. It is an upstream riparian state. Lebanon and Syria are affected by projects Turkey initiates. It is true that both countries suffer from internal conflict; and do not have the means to fight back.

The principle I wish to underscore is this. If an upstream riparian state such as Turkey is free to construct irrigation of eclectic dams on the Tigris-Euphrates River within its own borders, Ethiopia must enjoy the same sovereign rights as Turkey and or any other country on the planet.

Is there a real change of heart?

I do not believe that Egypt’s government in particular and Egyptian civil society in general has changed with regard to Egypt’s hegemony over Nile waters. The impasse on the GERD illustrates mistrust.

It is vital for readers in general and the global community to appreciate how we got to this stage in the first place. We must weigh Egypt’s outdated position against dramatic changes in Africa.

Agreements on the Nile were reached in the absence of Black Africa. With the exception of Ethiopia that had remained defiant and independent, all of Africa and the Middle East was under colonial control, with the British dominating most of these two regions. International law and agreements governing waterways were dictated by colonial and imperial powers. For practical purposes, the economic interests of riparian states in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia did not feature or matter.

The genesis of the problem

In 1929, the Imperial Government of the United Kingdom that ruled Egypt “exchanged notes” with its clientele regime in Egypt with regard to the use of the “Waters of the River Nile for Irrigation Purposes.” The agreement that allowed Egypt to utilize Nile Rivers—the waters come from Ethiopia and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa—for Agric based-industry made an erroneous assumption, namely that Sub-Saharan Africa will remain dormant, colonized and disinterested in shaping its future.

In 1959, the 1929 Notes were beefed up and formalized into an Agreement between the United Arab Republic of Egypt and the Republic of Sudan. The mediator, facilitator and crafter of the Agreement on the “Full Utilization of the Nile Waters” was the same power that controlled both countries, namely, the UK.

The 1959 Agreement legitimized Egypt’s “historical and natural rights” claim that remained sacrosanct under successive Egyptian governments. Upon achieving its independence from UK colonial rule in 1956, Sudan renegotiated the 1929 “Notes” to make the bilateral agreement more equitable. The 1959 Agreement to which Ethiopia and the rest of Sub-Saharan non-Arab countries were not parties allocated 55.5 Billion Cubic Meters of water to Egypt and 18.5 Billion Cubic Meters of Water to Sudan. This is the position Egypt holds today.

These allocations of Nile Waters to the two-ex-British colonies offered them a legal and legitimate basis to form a united front against Ethiopia and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa legitimizing hegemony over Nile waters, with Egypt dictating terms since.

Independence has value!

It was about the same time that the rest of Sub-Saharan African colonized states were beginning to rebel against colonialism and imperialism. Ethiopia was therefore no longer the lone star of independence in Africa. It had, in fact, paved the way for the rest to claim freedom and independence from colonialism and imperialism. Freedom entails legitimacy and responsibility to act.

Independence meant that each newly independent African state that is a member of upstream nations would begin to assert its sovereign rights over the use of its water resources. Egypt and Sudan allocated Nile Waters to themselves at the exclusion of Ethiopia and the other upstream riparian states. This anomaly had to be redressed either together or alone. This is the position Ethiopia holds.

The uncontested 1959 Agreement of hegemony over the Nile Waters has now become contestable. My argument is this. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), launched in 1999 is a culmination of the contest to redress an unacceptable and unfair anomaly. Before NBI, each state that was never consulted in 1959 had began to map out strategies and to design programs on the utilization of rivers within its own borders with the intent of advancing its own development via irrigation and or power generation.

It is hard to argue why Ethiopia, that has made very little use of its share of the Abbay River and other rivers within its borders cannot complete the GERD and construct other dams and advance its development. My argument is that it must and it can.

International law, new norms and protocols embedded in NBI’s Cooperative Framework Agreements (CFA)are on Ethiopia’s side.

When the NBI was launched in February 1999, Water Ministers of the countries that share the Nile River—Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Eritrea participated.

What is the central or primary objective of the NBI?

In summary, the NBI “seeks to develop the river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security.” It also “provides an institutional mechanism, a shared vision, and a set of agreed policy guidelines to provide a framework for cooperative action.”

Almost a decade later, NBI Member States signed the non-binding Khartoum Declaration. Signatories identified “clear environment functions for the permanent Nile River Basin Organization. The nascent NBI Secretariat was charged with the responsibilities of “harmonization of environment management policies; data and information exchange; environmental impact assessment; policy, institutional, and legal analysis; and a coordinating role on climate.” It was also empowered to establish a “cooperative framework agreement (CFA)” replacing bilateral treaties and formalizing “the transformation of the Nile Basin Initiative into a permanent Nile River Basin Commission.”

In April 2010, seven of the Nile Basin states agreed to open the CFA for signature. Egypt and Sudan rejected the Commission. Egypt believes that it is not bound by the CFA. It is my considered opinion that the reason for Egypt’s rejection is that a multilateral agreement will undermine Egypt’s leverage and preponderance. This is the reason why I suggested that Egypt’s leadership is insincere and not truthful.

Egypt and its partner Sudan offered their own alternative suggesting instead that all riparian countries issue a “presidential declaration to launch the River Nile Basin Commission while negotiations on the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)continue.” Negotiations must have an end.

Out of the 9 member and one Observer status NBI countries–Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Eritrea (Observer), three of them, namely, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania signed the CFA almost immediately in 2010, with others following suit, except for Egypt and Sudan. Eritrea continues its membership as an Observer.

I suggest that the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework is a new instrument that has effectively made the 1929 and 1959 Agreements null and void. Egypt’s position is thus, weak and indefensible.

To its credit, Ethiopia announced and launched the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) a year after it signed the CFA. In terms of international protocol and new norms that govern waterways, Ethiopia’s GERD initiative is justified.

At the time of its launch by Meles I welcomed this $4 billion project that was conceived by Emperor Haile Selassie but not feasible to implement at the time because global conditions did not favor Ethiopia and the rest of Sub-Saharan African riparian countries. The world has changed since. Ethiopia used the change to advance its national development. Ethiopia has more to gain from harnessing its rivers than most other countries.

Among other things, Ethiopia serves as the origin of 90 percent of Nile waters and has a legitimate right not only to finish the GERD for electric power generation; but also, to construct other dams for irrigation. Food security and self-sufficiency is a priority for Ethiopia.

Egypt’s colonial position of “historical and natural rights” over the Abbay River and other tributaries of the Nile is no longer a winning proposition. Despite “warming relations” between Ethiopia and Egypt, the later has not abandoned its position of hegemony.

In my considered opinion, Egypt and its allies are trying to undermine Ethiopia’s development objectives by weaponizing ethnic and religious divisions. The widespread instability, arms trafficking, robbery, lawlessness and rebellion throughout Ethiopia is deliberate and well financed and is designed to dismantle Ethiopia.

What makes Ethiopia vulnerable is the system itself. The ethnic-federal system and administrative structure that the TPLF with support from other ethnic parties and foreign governments imposed on the Ethiopian people has diminished Ethiopian national identity; and has replaced it with ethnic identity.

Ethiopia is now porous, vulnerable and weak. Its intuitions cater more to ethnic and religious elites and less to Ethiopian national identity and developmental goals. Egyptian society shows a unity of purpose with regard to the Nile. Ethiopians are conflicted.

“Amhara, Oromo, Tigre etc. first” is a mantra that diminishes Ethiopian nationalism and solidarity. This is the reason why Ethiopia in 2020 is identified as a “failing or failed state.” Remember the old adage “You reap what you sow.”  The seeds of fracturing and potential dismantlement were sown when the current nationality and language-based constitution was formalized.

Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that incorporated secession. It is the only county in Africa that legalized ethnic political formation, with the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) that has now morphed into the Prosperity Party as Ethiopia’s pioneer in the ethnicization of politics.

While the ethnic coalition may have evolved, its roots, political culture, ideology, structure and institutional making are still intact. This setting diminishes Ethiopia’s capacity and resolve to defend its national interests and promote its development goals. Its adversaries, including Egypt take advantage of this internal fracturing and weakness.     

Despite this disadvantage, I suggest strongly that the most reasonable policy option is for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to agree on an equitable and fair position that serves all countries in the long-term. A developed and prosperous Ethiopia is much more desirable in the Horn of Africa than a conflict-ridden and poor Ethiopia. Fundamentalism and homegrown terrorism spread like a virus; and Egypt can’t be spared from this virus.

Further, Ethiopia won’t remain weak, fragmented and poor. Accordingly, allowing Ethiopia to finish the GERD is a prerequisite for future win-win options. If Egypt refuses to budge, Ethiopia should revert to other options, including constructions of numerous irrigation dams throughout the country. Irrigation dams will, in fact, have serious and adverse impacts on water volume than hydroelectric dams; and will affect Egypt.

Egypt should stop insisting that the filling of the Dam takes over many decades. This position penalizes Ethiopia and reduces the economic benefits that accrue from Ethiopia’s investment. Ethiopia must not be penalized to mitigate Egyptian fears. The current impasse that the United States, the World Bank and others are trying to mediate should not delay the timely completion of the GERD.

I know that the U.S. has more investments in Egypt compared to Ethiopia. However, this temporary phenomenon underestimates Ethiopia’s long-term potential and strategic importance. Further, Ethiopia’s relations with the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, a region with explosive growth potential, cannot be overlooked by Western economies.  

Sponsors of the NBI including the UN and the World Bank are cognizant of the importance of honoring international law and standards in general and respect for cooperative agreements in administering the interests of riparian states.

What do I conclude?

  1. First and foremost, the government of Ethiopia must be firm and unwavering. It must apply diplomatic pressure on Egypt; and must muster the will and resolve to defend Ethiopian national interests.

 

  1. Ethiopia’s current efforts to strengthen its national security forces, its intelligence services and defense show promise; and must be bolstered even further. These institutions must be totally and unabashedly loyal to Ethiopia and defend its national interests and its sovereignty.

 

  1. Ethiopian opposition parties must support the GERD project and express anger and resentment against Egypt’s proxy wars and propaganda.

 

  1. Irrespective of ethnic or religious affiliation or ideology and power, Ethiopians must show a unity of purpose with regard to the GERD.

 

  1. Ethiopians must recognize that Ethiopia’s rapid growth over the past decade is a source of envy and jealousy among its external adversaries including Egypt.

 

  1. While I worry about uneven distribution of wealth and income and inequitable investment among regions, it is vital for the government of Ethiopia at all levels to restore personal security, peace and stability and the rule of law.

 

  1. The World Bank’s projection of decline in Ethiopia’s growth rate is real; and this might be a consequence of ongoing insecurity and instability in the country.

 

  1. Completion of the GERD is therefore, in part a function of proactive diplomacy; but equally a function of Ethiopia’s internal governance and competent leadership.

 

January 21, 2020

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Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): A Call for Successful Mediation to Create Full Agreement

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NETWORK of ETHIOPIAN SCHOLARS (www.nesglobal.org)
Title: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): A Call for Successful Mediation to Create Full Agreement by All Involved on 28-29 January, 2020 in Washington D.C

By  Mammo Muchie

(DST/NRF Research Professor on Innovation Studies, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa)

Inspiration

“The World Fears time
Time Fears History
History fears Ethiopia

Ethiopia by her suffering throughout her long history of independence has given spiritual (not material) strength and wealth to the world” (Mammo Muchie

  1. Background

Ethiopia has not received the much needed and full support to complete the GERD on time until now. The GERD should have been completed three years ago in 2017. It is remarkable because of the lack of support mainly from the Government of Egypt and its close allies; the completion of GERD unfortunately has been far too much delayed. The Government of Egypt should refrain from continuing to delay the GERD and come fully on board knowing truly that the GERD is not just only for Ethiopia; it is a real treasure and asset for all in the River Nile region, Africa and the rest of the world.

Ethiopia and Sudan will surely welcome Egypt and they know GERD is beneficial to all and not just to Ethiopia, despite the fact Ethiopia is the principal driver of the GERD initiative. What benefits Ethiopia also benefits Egypt and conversely what benefits Egypt can benefit Ethiopia too. The win-win and mutually beneficial high way should prevail for all in the region rather than overloading it with the unnecessary selfish political consumption and traffic entirely free from any external interference. The recognition and acknowledgment by all in the region is much needed, that Ethiopia has the right to compensation to the Nile River water and the soil that cascades to Sudan and Egypt. The proper handling to stop the opposition to GERD in order to bring justice where all can gain can come when the Ethiopia that has been losing for years and years is compensated for both the water and soil.  Let all share and not take advantage and use unnecessary political moves to promote ethnic fracturing to divide Ethiopia. It is worrisome to read currently the media coverages that in 2020 the ethnic division that is also promoted with external actors in Ethiopia has been reported to become the biggest threat to the country.

Egypt and Ethiopia can draw lessons from Lesotho and South Africa. It is truly   an exemplary model to witness the mutual beneficial relation between Lesotho and South Africa. South Africa annually pays to Lesotho for the river water that flows from Lesotho to South Africa. Egypt should learn from South Africa and must agree to compensate Ethiopia for both the Nile River water and the cascading soil. This offer should have come from Egypt a long time ago. It is not late. Egypt needs to make a mind-set and paradigm shift to go from opposition and conflict by choosing to become a true and regular partner in supporting the construction of GERD without fail.

The South African President is going to become the chair of the Africa Union in February 2020.  The Prime Minister of Ethiopia has asked the president of South Africa in his role as chair of the Africa Union to assist in making sure there is collaboration to complete the GERD between Egypt and Ethiopia and both with Sudan. Ethiopia should consider its right of obtaining due compensation for its investment in the GERD project which is of benefit not only to Ethiopia but also to the Sudan and Egypt.

 

Although international conventions regarding riparian water rights accord benefits for all concerned adjacent countries, the specific applications depend on the extent to which each country exerts rights. Unfortunately, current and recent regimes in Ethiopia have not exerted the required influence to make sure Ethiopia also benefits. It is time that such an action is taken now with full agreement so the GERD can be completed mainly with full support from all Governments in the Nile River region. The Africa Union should facilitate and make sure the GERD construction is fully achieved by all in the region by avoiding external divisive influences.

There is now a mediation-taking place in Washington DC managed by the US Government Treasury involving Ethiopia with Egypt, Sudan, the U.S. Government and the World Bank to produce an agreement with a declaration to come out a Communique by 28-29 January 2020 signed by all the partners.

How it would have been truly, right if only the Nile River Regions could have taken time and solve any issues.  If the Nile River regions wish to involve others, it is strongly recommended that they request the Africa Union to join them and resolve any issues by taking all the time they need.

Let us hope that the mediation in Washington DC will recommend ways for the Nile River region countries to address the GERD construction time and learn to agree. The agreement must be fair, mutually beneficial, tangible, measurable, actionable and sustainable where all join to make sure the GERD can be completed fully as soon as possible.

We expect all those who will produce the communique in a week’s time to take the following recommendations that are now being shared to all involved to draft the communique in order to   open the opportunity for GERD to be fast-tracked and completed very soon free from all the conflicting politics.

II: Recommendation for a Successful Mediation on GERD

  1. GERD should not have been subjected to conflict. That was truly a big mistake. Those who made the mistake should acknowledge and come back to support the earliest possible completion of the GERD. There should have been engagement of all in the Nile region how best to generate hydroelectricity without any loss of water. In fact, there should have been applied research to make sure that more hydroelectric power can be generated with the increase in water volume as the region is bestowed with  winter and spring seasons when the Nile River Region is awash   with flood. The applied GERD project based action research should have also been used how to increase the water level even at the summer and drier time when there is no wet and flood. The entire weather pattern and climate can be examined systematically to make sure the water level is never reduced. There can be also solar panels that can be used to store the heat from the sun during hot seasons to retain the green zone on the ground and retain water. We have created the African solar energy network to harness the heat and light from the sun to create electricity and continue to use the land to produce as many fruits and crops as possible. (ansole.org).

 

  1. There are many possibilities and opportunities that the region as a whole can gain from GERD. What is lacking is focus to find real solutions to any problem. The much-needed applicable research is not often done. This is what should have been undertaken by joining the research team and not go alone by each side and come out with information to create problems rather than solutions. The power of knowledge should have been used to empower all the countries together rather than using the power of unnecessary and divisive politics, prejudice and selfish interest to divide and fight rather than build the GERD and unite.

 

  1. The filling of the dam can be accomplished with water gain by discovering the right and agreed high way to avoid water loss. What all of you must put in the Communique is that this opportunity for water gain rather than water loss is fully available. It is a matter of how on the journey all can agree to share and work to achieve high quality output on both the hydroelectricity and water level sides. In Japan, they can now recycle toilet water. There is no reason why we cannot apply engineering knowledge to make sure that the water level can continue to increase rather than play unnecessary politics by claiming building the dam brings risk rather than opportunity.

 

  1. The weather condition and climate can be thoroughly examined with now space satellites with remote sensing communications and a variety of ground and water level experiments that are waiting to be applied, used and assist to make sure the water is not only retained but also ways can be discovered to recycle the water and increase the level by regulating the flow annually.

 

  1. Consideration should be given to methodologies of saving the water being lost due to evaporation, to deal with the water flow value chain from Ethiopia to Egypt and the optimal waste management to address systematically the environmental challenges all the three countries face.

 

  1. The principle of mutual benefit must guide the relationship of all the countries that are now meeting to produce the final Communique to move forward with peace and security for all. It is critical to recognize no conflict is necessary to prevent the GERD to reach the final stage of completion.

 

  1. All the countries in the region such as Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan that share the waters of the Nile River along with the countries that are directly and indirectly involved (e.g. the USA, Israel and some of the countries in the Middle East) have to agree even when they disagree to re-agree to create a win-win outcome in every sphere related to the GERD. They all must clearly articulate this commitment in the coming communique.

 

  1. There is no justification in using any threats of violence, war and interference to fast track the full completion of the GERD by not losing more time anymore now.

 

  1. The interference in the internal politics to polarize by inflicting ethnic and religious divisions to distract Ethiopia from completing the GERD is a violation of human rights and international law. Governments that spearhead such interventions must stop and apologize for all the damage that Ethiopia has been continuing to suffer. The Communique should explicitly articulate the risk that Ethiopia has suffered and make it explicit that there will be no interference to promote tribal conflict in Ethiopia to distract Ethiopia from finalizing the completion of the GERD.

 

III: GERD: Resource to Generate Abundance of Electricity and Water

 

  1. GERD will not reduce the water level. In fact, the engineering design and model can be framed in such a way that GERD’s hydroelectricity can come with the increase rather than the decrease of the water level in the Nile River region as a whole.

 

  1. The communique should explicitly recommend for all the Governments of the Nile region to apply science, technology, engineering and innovation to understand the space, the land and the water in the Nile River region to generate hydroelectric power by increasing the water level rather than reducing it. If all the politicians from all the countries involved can agree to apply scientific knowledge rather than entering into conflict, there will be absolutely no reason to prevent the GERD from being completed as soon as possible.

 

  1. GERD can in fact make it possible for Egypt to get even more water than what it is getting now. What is needed is to create the dam without any sabotage to facilitate both the provision of water and electricity. The engineering to store the water is not difficult. What is very damaging is the unnecessary politics that the politicians and media play. The politicians, the extremists and media preferred to promote ethnic political division openly to hurt and divide Ethiopia rather than learning to agree on how best both electricity and water can be shared. What cost is involved and how best to agree to share the needed cost? South Africa pays annually to Lesotho for the water that flows to them. The Nile River water is the source of life for Egypt that flows from Ethiopia. Egypt too like South Africa does should have paid. In the Communique on 28-29, 2020, Egypt should agree to contribute and agree to pay even for all the years it has shared the water of the Nile River.

 

  1. Egypt should also commit to contribute for building GERD rather than opposing and delaying it any more. Egypt should learn from China that contributed to help build the renaissance dam on time to make all in the region benefit from the provision of preserved water with the dam. It is much better to create and use the dam and reservoir than relying on downstream water levels that flow at different rates depending on the cycle of dry and wet season.

 

  1. The communique should also advise all the regional countries never to fail to find restorative and rehabilitative justice to resolve any differences. They must all apply the rich spiritual heritage that promotes African values, traditions and associational culture to do the needed, necessary and honestly done mediation and resolve any problem by addressing systematically all the issues to move forward together by all undertaking a shared future.

 

  1. The Communique should clearly articulate a road map of how all the Nile River Regional states can deal with any difference with one another from here on. It is better they do it themselves than involving all other external actors.

 

  1. If the outsiders are to get involved, be good if the AU can be recommended to handle it. It will be good to find African solutions to African problems.

 

  1. We appreciate all who can contribute to make sure all the regional states are engaged to solve problems rather than create problems. Let all in the Nile region create unity, rather than division, create peace rather than war, undertake  sustainable and enduring engagement to make the people to be innovative, inventive, and  integrative  to make  sustainable and transformative development future  for all by making the health, safety and prosperity of  all the people the priority of priorities.

 

  1. The inspiring part of the GERD is how the payment for the construction has been made. There is no aid requested. It is the people that contribute. Those from outside also do not give loans, they contribute like China did.

 

  1. Payment for the GERD construction should continue without bringing loan, aid, and debt. Encouragements are needed to make all the people to contribute and make them all proud together they have made history by the completed achievement of the GERD construction.

 

  1. We ask Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to become three as one and one as three united firmly, anchored to promote the well-being of the people and the safety of the water, soil and nature to make the GERD construction done now without taking any more time with full agreement. All those from Africa and the rest of the world are welcome to contribute but not to lend loans and create debt. GERD must be purely a people’s project done by the people and for all the people.

 

IV: Concluding Remarks

We are all eagerly looking forward that the expected Communique will recommend strongly for GERD to be delayed never and to be implemented soonest ever. The agreement must be based on clear principle and value to make sure mutual benefit comes first and guides the shared route to achieve the construction of the GERD. Any conflict must be resolved with the principle, culture, grace and value of reconciliation and virtue. The GERD is a real asset not just for Ethiopia but also for all. Let peace prevail and GERD be achieved and done, now, now and now.

 

Mammo Muchie

Prof. Mammo Muchie, DPhil

DST/NRF SARChI Research Professor on Science, Technology, Innovation and Development: Tshwane University of Technology, Adjunct Professor in BDU & Harmaya, Ethiopia, and Riara University in Kenya, and Associate Faculty Professor, Sussex University, U.K.  (www.sarchi.org)

e-mail: muchiem@tut.ac.za, mammo.muchie@gmail.com,

Website: www.tut.a.c.za  www.tmd-oxford.org/content/mammo-muchie

www.tandfonline.com/rajs, www.nesglobal.org and http://nesglobal.org/eejrif4/index.php?journal=admin

 

NB: Sincere appreciation to all of you who sent me your comments and feedback.

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‘Time for Machetes’

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By Dawit Giorgis

In a brilliant book titled ‘A Time for Machetes,’ Jean Herzfeld discusses the Rwandan genocide with the killers.  The famous author of several books, Susan Sontag commenting on the book writes, “ Our obligation and it is an obligation, is to take in what human beings are capable of doing to one another, not spontaneously (crimes of this order are never spontaneous) but when mobilized to think of other human beings – people who were their school friends, neighbours, co-workers, and fellow parishioners- are not human beings at all, and when organized for and directed to the task of slaughter. For the issue, finally is not judgment. It is understanding.” To try to understand what happened in Rwanda has been very painful personally since I had seen first hand the effects of what happened in Rwanda in 1994.  But nevertheless, we cannot push it aside. We have to remember it, understand it and learn lessons from it.

On 31 January, I read a news post in Amharic written by a certain Yohanis Mekonen, including a huge number of comments, which reflected the shock and outrage of millions of Ethiopians.  The writer states that in the city of Harar, in an area known as ‘Fourth’, he verified the unloading of 36000 machetes in three separate storages belonging to the Risk and Disaster Management Agency, which usually stores food and humanitarian assistance to people affected by natural and man-made disasters. I used to head this agency but then it was called the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC.) The writer says that he called Addis Abeba, the headquarter of the agency and asked for an explanation. He was told that it was going to be distributed to 24 Eastern districts to be used as agricultural tools. Times may have changed but during the times I lived and worked in Harar, machetes were not normally used for agricultural purposes.

It is sensitive times and even if they were to be used for agricultural purposes the timing was not right. When some of our people are using machetes to kill others and are often seen in public threatening to kill holding machetes, it is certainly not a good idea to put these weapons in places where violent criminal gangs are operating freely and amongst people who are living in an atmosphere of fear of being slaughtered by machetes, unless it is intended to be used by them as weapons which is the opinion of many.

Once again I was reminded of the Rwandan experience. In 1993 approximately a year before the genocide took place, a project to import a large number of machetes from China, under the cover of agricultural tools, was underway.   Rwanda had never imported machetes from China or anywhere in the previous years. Linda Malvern, author of Conspiracy to Murder, the Rwandan Genocide explains her findings: (page 56)

“ As an illustration of the sheer volume involved, the total numbers machetes imported weighed 581,175 kilos and cost 725,000 US; there was an estimated one new machetes for every third male in the country.

One of the companies involved in these purchases belonged to Felicien Kabuga, the businessman who had helped finance the RTLM. (RTLM is the hate radio station, which spread hate speech and coordinated the genocide.

The silence of the Prime Minister in this and similar circumstances raises more concern about the capacity of the prime minister and lingering suspicions about his sinister agenda. But whatever the truth maybe it will eventually catch up with him and he will be brought to justice unless he takes bold steps to align himself with the forces of unity, peace and freedom. As of now, most people have come to believe that he is not serving the best interest of the country and himself.  In May 1998 the Prime Minister of Rwanda pleaded guilty ‘for sanctioning a climate of fear, hatred and paranoid, inciting violence and ultimately sanctioning mass murder’ and was convicted on all six counts.’

Under international law, crimes against humanity includes the following: Murder; Deportation or forcible transfer of population; Imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty in violation of fundamental rules of international law; Torture; Rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence of comparable gravity; Persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political, racial, national, ethnic, cultural, religious, gender as defined in paragraph 3, or other grounds that are universally recognized as impermissible under international law, in connection with any act referred to in this paragraph or any crime within the jurisdiction of the Court; Enforced disappearance of persons; Other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health.

Under Article II of the genocide convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: Killing members of the group; Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

The Ethiopian government officials need to read the above over and over again and see what applies to them collectively and individually and understand what lies ahead for them in due time. And that time will come.

It could be proven in an independent court of law that some of the above have occurred in Ethiopia particularly since Prime Minister Abiy came to power.  This has all the hallmarks of possible repeat of history but one that can still be averted with the collaboration of the international community.   Prime Minister Abiy stands accused one more time for complicity with genocide and crimes against humanity. Longman Dictionary of Contemporary English defines complicity;

“ Involvement or knowledge of a situation, especially one that is morally wrong dishonest “ Prime Mister is fully aware of the crimes that are being committed routinely in many parts of Ethiopia, largely directed at the Amharas. Amharas and Orthodox Christians are being singled out for persecution. Reminisce of the Nazi Germany, when Jews were being singled out and persecuted, Amharas’ are being offloaded from public transports and detained; Amahras are being chased from certain areas dominated by extremist Oromos, in Harar, Bale and Arsi for example; Amhara students are being persecuted, kidnapped, tortured and chased out of many schools in the Oromia region; Amahras are being hunted down and beaten and their houses burnt. Both the Orthodox Church and the Amhara ethnic group are the prime targets of these extremist elements. There are hundreds of thousands of people who can testify to the occurrence of these crimes. They have been committed in full view of the public and with the full knowledge of this Prime Minister.  In a court of law, he could be found guilty of complicity.

According to ‘FindLaw ‘ composed of legal experts, “Complicity is the act of helping or encouraging another individual to commit a crime. It is also commonly referred to as aiding anabetting.  One who is complicit is said to be an accomplice.  But, even though an accomplice does not actually commit the crime, his or her actions helped someone in the commission of the crime.

The concept of accomplice liability means an accomplice faces the same degree of guilt and punishment as the individual who committed the crime. Indeed, accomplices can face the same penalties, including prison time. The key consideration is whether the individual intentionally and voluntarily encouraged or assisted in the commission of the crime, or (in some cases) failed to prevent it.”

In 2017 the Rwandan government released an independent report accusing French officials of complicity in the 1994 genocide.  The report commissioned by the Rwandan government and conducted by a Washington law firm, alleges that French military forces trained their Rwandan counterparts, supplied tm with weapons even after an arms embargo, and gave cover, under the auspices of a United Nations-sanctioned humanitarian mission, in the last moments of a genocidal campaign.

More recently Gambia has denounced the Nobel Prize winner for peace Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s “silence” over alleged atrocities against Rohingya Muslims. The case was heard in the international Court of Justice (ICJ). Lawyers said Ms. Suu Kyi had ignored widespread allegations of mass murder, rape and forced deportation. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced its first ruling in the highlighted genocide case against Burma on January 23 of this year.  The court ordered Burma to carry out emergency measures to protect the Rohingya from further violence and persecution. Aung San Suu Ky is the democracy icon and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, who fell from grace.  This also can be repeated. PM Abiy is quickly falling from grace.

When responsible people who had the authority and the means to prevent crimes against humanity, men and women whose duty is to protect the people  betray the trust people had on them and allow mass murder, kidnapping, torture and mass displacement to take place, they are considered as accomplices to the crimes committed.  Their silence and inaction is complicity and is punishable both under international and domestic laws. The charges could even be more serious when it is targeted against specific groups of people with the intention to eliminate them, humiliate them, displace them. This will be tantamount to genocide. In Ethiopia it feels that this has already started. Heinous crimes are being committed almost on a daily basis largely against the Amharas.

The situation needs the urgent attention of the international community because this government of Prime Minister Abiy has failed to stop it. Now the people are asking seriously whether he is not an accomplice to a series of criminal events that have taken place in the last two years since he took power?  His silence and his inactions on all the criminal acts including the burning of churches, the murder of many, the war mongering by his own colleagues and the party that he leads, the kidnapping of Amhara students and the virtual impossibility of free movement in the country, has made it difficult to understand his behavior.

He travels to a country, Equatorial Guinea, the most corrupt nation on earth, to visit a President Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo, who has been in power for 41 years, to receive a prize from him.  In the same week he travels to Guinea Conakry, one of the most corrupt nations in Africa, whose president Alpha Conde is currently trying to change the constitution so he can stay in power for a third term, and then to Eritrea and gives the impression that the country is normal. During all these times the country was and is still gripped with fear with millions out on the streets demonstrating and demanding rule of law. He travels to seek adulation and to escape from the reality.  The demonstrations are unprecedented. The last time such demonstrations took place was in support of Abiy when he came to power. Such is the irony of history. It took the Prime Minster only two years to turn this tide of support against him though it did not take me that long.

The constant behavior of Ably is his narcissistic personality, which, according to the book on such disorder, ‘occurs where a person has an inflated sense of their own importance and seeks to gain recognition of this from others. Noticeable symptoms may include: Excessive self-importance, preoccupied with fantasies of power, success seeking, constant admiration, praise and approval’ etc.

It is widely known that the scheduled election is not going to change the complex political and security situation in Ethiopia. The whole purpose of this exercise is to anoint Abiy as the legitimate leader of Ethiopia. He will win under what is expected to be a rigged election. The controversy that will almost certainly come out of this choreographed and fake election will add another layer to the already complex security situation of Ethiopia.

There are Ethiopians and members of the international community who are recording all these crimes.  As I write this, the International rights groups, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International made a statement on; “ the worrying development especially with key elections coming… the return of mass arrests of opposition activists and supporters is a worrying signal in Ethiopia.” Human rights activists in and outside the country are putting the Prime Minister on notice that if he fails to stop this carnage, he will stand accused of crimes against humanity and of what could possibly happen (genocide of biblical proportion) as a result of his inactions.

Dawit Giorgis

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THE CRISIS BEYOND HOPE

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By Sintayehu  Gebremariam
E-Mail ___makuadu@yahoo.com __________________

Ethiopia, as a country that is known for being the first place to host human being and to be one of the few ancient civilizations, it also has a down side in terms of conflict and ethnic tension, since the medieval age, locally known as “Zemene Mesafent”. Like all modes of productions during the emergence of the feudal system, oligarchs here and there were climbing on the ladder of societal hierarchy, to become leaders and governors.

Most of the Ethiopian civilization began from the northern part of the country and most of its history falls on the shoulder of the Tigrian and The Amhara people.

In 1974, the monarch was removed by public anger and mismanagement of the country’s resources, to benefit the royal family and the elites who were working for the crown.

After that a military government took power as there was no organized party at that time, that can lead the country with a defined road. The subjective conditions against the monarch was fulfilled, but there was no any party, ready to lead the country. Then the military had to take the power in a promise to hand it over to a civilian government, in six months.

The Military Junta, known as Derg continued to lead the country, despite the promise of handing power to a civilian and elected government. The country was on a crossroad, whether to follow free market economy (Capitalism) or the Communist ideology, that was dominated by the USSR.

I believe due to the close relationship of emperor Haleselassie to the western worls, the powerful states rejected the military junta and the country was forced to seek help from Soviet Union.

In the absence of fertile ground to host a new ideology, the government declared socialism and the chaos began. The country lost extremely important and educated citizens for internal conflicts between parties and from actions taken by the government.

The guerilla fighters who were fighting to liberate Eritrea created another group in the Tigray Province of the country and began to fight the military government. After seventeen years of misery the country fell into the hand of the EPRDF, a front of guerilla fighters created by the Tigray People Liberation Front.

The TPLF declared democracy and called all stakeholders and different ethnic fronts to the capital and formed a transitional government, which ignited hope in the heart of many Ethiopians. It was new in its kind to see oppositions sitting together to confer about one nation.

That excitement did not stay longer. The TPLF changed into a tyranny or its bad character began to be revealed. The country went back to dictatorship in its worst form. The latent ethnic clash between tribes was fuelled by the TPLF in order to divide and rule the country. People became busy to work on hate against each other and united voice could not be achieved.

The need for democracy and justice increased and in 2016, the Ethiopian people began to fight against the EPRDF. Waves of demonstrations took the roads and villages of the country. The government used force to stop the public anger. Thousands were killed and many jailed.

The EPRDF began to have internal problem. Members and high-ranking officials who were participating in the crime done by the EPRDF formed a faction and they began to secretly work with different domestic and international forces to tumble the TPLF.

Such people who were commissioners and omissioners of crime came out with words of hope and change and convinced the public that the crimes of the past will never be committed again. They tried to fool the public and they were successful in easing the public anger, mainly by releasing political prisoners.

The new force, that believes brought change to the country used such tactic to defuse the collective power of the public and to instill another dictatorial government. Few weeks after the so-called reform, many people lost their homes, properties and their lives. Ethnic conflict was ignited all over the country and the government did not act swiftly to manage or handle such crisis.

At this time there are more than four million internally displaced people in Ethiopia, who are desperately looking for help. A Genocide took place in different places, mainly in the Guji zone of Oromia. The Oromos killed innocent members of the Gedeo tribe. It is a mass killing committed by the Oromos and the government led by an Oromo prime minister did not investigate or correct such an act of genocide.

The army and the security force of the country that was built by the EPRDF in the past twenty-seven years was relatively stronger that many other neighboring countries, which was capable of preventing external intrusions and stabilizing the country. Though Ethiopia is known for its anti democratic practice against citizens, it had strong army and reliable security system, that kept the country safe from intervention of external terrorist groups.

When neighboring Kenya and Somalia were being attacked by terrorist groups in different time, the Ethiopian intelligence assured the safety of the country and it was campaigning cross border to fight and destroy terror elements like Al Shabab.

At this time, Ethiopia is extremely vulnerable, n terms of internal and external security. The country that was trying to liberate the neighboring countries from terrorist hold is now in a very scary situation. Currently, the government of Dr. Abiy is incapable to protect the country from invasion and it is unable to stop the domestic violence that are taking away the lives of innocent citizens, everyday. Only in 2020, which is in less that a month in this new year, students in Oromia are kept hostages by local war lords, created after the arrival of the new prime minister. Girls are being taken hostage and the government is doing nothing to free those innocent citizens.

University students are being killed in campuses, because of their ethnic origin. Most of the universities in the country are being closed, due to security concerns. Highways get blocked by locally organized and armed hooligans. The government that came to power by cheating the public left the country vulnerable to internal and external security threats.

In Ethiopian reconstructing the security and intelligence services has been proved more difficult. As a result, significant insecurity has escalated in many parts of the country, leaving nearly four million internally displaced people. The government faces the challenge of anticipating and mitigating nationalist violence, particularly as the country prepares for elections in the coming six months.

Many Ethiopians both within the EPRDF and the opposition recognize the need for a national discussion on issues relating to the regain of control on the security and tranquility of the country, which is a driving factor for economic change and prosperity.  Similarly, the EPRDF is considering changes to the party and has floated the idea that it transforms itself to one party that individuals join directly rather than through membership in regional party associates. These questions, however, are tense with argument, and open debate is unlikely before the next round of elections.

First of all, the politicians and the public were expecting to see a transitional council or some kind of temporary government, to transform the country from where it is to a new kind of governance though a democratic election.

However, the new prime minister changed his mind and decided to continue to lead the country until the next election, which is expected by many trusted organizations including the international crisis group to be one of the bloodiest elections ever.

In the presence of such tension in Ethiopia, it will me a calamity for the country to hold an election in less than six months, in the absence of social consensus.

The tension in Oromia, Amhara, and other regions is manifestly preventing party members to campaign. The lack of safety and security can not allow the candidates to travel from place to place and to address their constituency groups. Many members of the opposition are strongly opposing the election process currently. They are asking the government to postpone he election at least by one year, until fertile and sfe ground is created. However, the new prime minister who wants to secure his position for the coming five years is going ahead with election, which is expected to be full of conflict and crisis.

It is believed that the prime minister is backed up back some Arabic countries and is relying more on the will of those governments, instead of relying on the Ethiopian people. Holding an election at this vulnerable time will totally lead the country in to crisis.

To be continued

 

The post THE CRISIS BEYOND HOPE appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar: Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

The Ethiopian Government is Behind the Kidnapping of Young Female Amhara University Students.

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Abebech Shiferaw
January 2020

Education seems the only way to get out of poverty for many Amharas. The culture is pro-education and civilization. As a result, Amharas scarify all that they can and Pass-through hardship to send their children to educational institutions.

Poor economic stand, scattered access to educational facilities, poor schools as many children and adolescents are learning under trees shelter, acute shortage of educational materials (for example, a text may be given for ten students), less qualified teachers and so on best describe Amhara’s scenario in today’s Ethiopia. Consequently, many dropouts from schools early and many more fail in national examinations. These groups of students’ fate is worrisome for they are neither educated people nor farmers and will be forced to be dependents on their poor families. As the education ladder increases, only a small section of Amhara youths will succeed to join higher education.

Even at a tertiary level of educational institutions, ethnic Amhara University students’ struggle for survival gets double. One, coping up with academic challenges of higher education and competing with other students who come from relatively more privileged regions. Second, the fight for survival becomes more tough as Amhara students are subjects of injustice in a different form by teachers, employees, other students, hosting communities and so on. Not only in other regions, Amhara students not immune to injustice even in the Amhara region. This is evidenced by unjust measures taken by Universities located in the Amhara region. For example,  more than 165 Amhara students were fired from universities located in the Amhara Region for the mere reason of protesting against the mistreatment of Amharas in different universities.

Not only this, currently over 50, 000 Amhara University students are displaced from different Universities as a result of intentionally calculated ethnic conflicts by terrorist groups which are believed to be supported by government apparatus in the background.

Worse yet, teaching-learning activities have been interrupted in most Universities. Many Amhara university students are warned by terrorist groups and their allies to evacuate from campuses forcefully where many died and got wounded. What is most tragic is that more than 20 females Amhara University students are recently abducted in a daylight by terrorist groups in the Oromia region while traveling back to their families. And yet, the government has been babysitting agents of hatred and has taken no major action though two months have elapsed since the incidence has been voiced by concerned media. This is a terrorist act has happened in a country where its Prime Minister is awarded with a Nobel Peace Prize??? What an unjust world! Did the Bokoharam terrorist groups in Nigeria do anything worse than this? Esteemed international communities/organizations, we need your eyes wide open and fairer mind at this critical juncture in history!

Obviously, the government seems not willing and is very far away from discharging its responsibilities thereby protecting the rights of citizens. Rather, the government, institutions, and officials are obsessed with the provision of false information which aims at creating a sense of confusion on the public.

The drama and seemingly deliberate miscommunication continued by the government. For instance, one university student who succeeded in escaping the abduction was treated inhumanely by officials in the Amhara region. This caused strong public anger and pressure on the less trusted government structure. Following this, peaceful mass demonstrations have taken in different parts of the country demanding the government to execute its duties properly and facilitate the release of kidnapped university students. Still, the usual misleading propaganda is going on by the government.  Giving a deaf ear for the loud quest for democracy, human rights and release of abducted girls, the government is irresponsibly working hard to deliberately protect the armed bandits from being labeled as “terrorist” groups nationally and internationally. Still no promising result, female university students are in the hands of the barbaric group and their fate is known to date.

In summary, the kidnapping of female university students is a clear terrorist act by terrorist groups based in and backed by the Oromia region of Ethiopia and Federal level authorities. This is a war declared against poor Amharas, Ethiopians and humanity at large. Hence, Ethiopians at home and abroad need to stand together and recollect our efforts in curbing this immoral and very illegal war against humanity and ensure the immediate release of kidnapped female university students. We need to be more organized and take pragmatic measures for better results in the short-run (securing the lives of University students) and in the long run, ensuring the security of Amhara people in the future. I call upon the international community and organizations to stand on the side of Amhara people to stop the war against humanity once again and bring terrorists to justice.

 

The post The Ethiopian Government is Behind the Kidnapping of Young Female Amhara University Students. appeared first on Ethiopian Registrar: Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

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