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Peace in Ethiopia, Eritrea and All Africa: Congratulations PM Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afewerki!

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

The guns silenced, the suffering people of Ethiopia and Eritrea may now speak, shout out, that the two countries hereafter “shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore.” Witnessing swords beaten into plowshares is a source of great joy for me. — Alemayehu G. Mariam, “Blessed are the Peacemakers in Ethiopia”, June 20, 2018

Today is Ethiopia’s finest hour upon the world stage. PM Abiy Ahmed winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize is one small step for Ethiopia and one giant leap for Africa. Give peace a chance. Dona nobis pacem (“Grant us peace”). Alemayehu G. Mariam, October 10, 2019, Twitter message.

Nobel Peace Prize for beating swords into plowshares, and spears into pruning hooks

The Nobel Peace Prize Committee announced H.E. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is awarded the 2019 Peace Prize

for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation and in particular his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea. When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018, he made it clear to resume peace talks with Eritrea in close cooperation with Isaias Afeworki, President of Eritrea. Abiy Ahmed quickly worked out the principles for a peace agreement to end the long no-peace, no-war stalemate between the two countries…

I congratulate H.E. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and H.E. President Isaias Afeworki for creating peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and ending a 20-year no-peace, no-war situation between their countries.

The fast pace of peace began in June 2018.

PM Abiy made a surprise game-changing announcement that Ethiopia will comply fully with the Ethio-Eritrea Boundary Commission’s Decision.

All that we have achieved from the [stalemate with Eritrea] situation of the last 20 years is tension. Neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea benefit from a stalemate. We need to expend all our efforts towards peace and reconciliation and extricate ourselves from petty conflicts and divisions and focus on eliminating poverty.

In July 2018, he made a historic official state visit to Eritrea and finally broke the ice.

PM Abiy received a reception fit for a rock star in Asmara.

After his three-day meeting with President Isaias, PM Abiy announced [auth. translation]:

We have agreed to have our airlines and ports to start working, our people to exchange [freely], our embassies to open and for us to come to Asmara with our families on the weekends and enjoy ourselves. Eritreans can come and visit their families in Ethiopia. The rest of the little items on the agenda we will solve by tearing down the border wall and building bridges. We have torn down the wall at the border and are building a bridge over it.

He said his core message to the people of Eritrea is

Medemer” (synergistically come together as force multipliers for each other). If we [engage in] medemer, we could surmount all [our challenges]. We have a broad range of opportunities in Northeast Africa. We have amazing people who are brothers. What we need is to abandon hatred and come together in love in medemer.

Following PM Abiy’s visit, President Isaias traveled to Addis Ababa where the people gave him a reception fit for a rock star.

In his Millennium Hall speech, President Isaias said [auth. translation]:

I wish to express the happiness I feel as I bring the greetings, love and good wishes of the Eritrean people to you. I wish to congratulate you on the historic change you have achieved. Within the framework of our traditional and historic mutually beneficial relationship, we have defeated the conspiracy of those who sought to foster hatred and revenge among us. We are fully determined to now focus on development, prosperity and stability and march forward together in all fields of endeavor. Who, who will dare to ruin our love, sow discord and instability among us, damage us or thwart and destroy our development and progress? We will not allow anyone to [get in our way]. Together, we will recover our losses, work hard together and achieve victory. We will strive for a better future. I am certain of it.

In just a few meetings, the two leaders managed to dissolve the hardened enmity that had kept their countries apart for 20 years.

Waging peace was much easier than waging war.

For two years (1998-2000), the only sound that was heard between the two countries was the “crash of guns, the rattle of musketry and the strange, mournful mutter of the battlefield.”

For the next 20 years, in a no-peace, no-war situation, all that could be heard was the mournful silence of the thousands of young men who became dust in the battlefields of Zalambessa, Bure and elsewhere.

Families on both sides of the border suffered enforced separation. They were prevented from even attending funerals. All they could do was watch from a distance in sadness and despair.

There were mass expulsions and deportations of ethnic Eritreans from Ethiopia in flagrant violation of international human rights conventions.

Ethiopia could no longer access the ports of Assab and Massawa and had to seek less favorable alternatives.

Eritrea could not access Ethiopian markets and imports.

The U.S. put Eritrea on the list of countries not cooperating with its anti-terrorism efforts followed by U.N. sanctions.

The Ethio-Eritrea border became a theater of no-war and no-peace, and indeed a theater of the absurd.

Fear and loathing characterized the relationship between the two countries for twenty years.

When the two-decade old no-peace, no-war status quo came to an official end in Bure and Zalambessa on September 11, 2018, I was present as an eyewitness.

I was supremely honored to accompany PM Abiy and President Isaias at the borders between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The historic moment occurred at Bure, a desolate arid landscape with little vegetation on the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea and Zalambessa, a town located in Tigray region on the Ethio-Eritrean border.

The March for Peace — 9/11/18

I witnessed as the invisible wall of hate, suspicion and revenge came tumbling down and the foundation was laid for a new bridge to reconnect the two peoples for ages to come.

That was a crowning achievement for the two leaders.

Peace between the two countries would not have been possible but for the extraordinary hard work, goodwill, good faith and good offices of the two leaders.

The border opening event was also a moment of sober reflection and great expectation for me.

If ever someone had told me I would be present at the opening of the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, I would have had that person involuntarily committed for psychiatric observation.

There were many poignant moments that gave me pause for reflection.

As I saw PM Abiy and President Isaias walking side by side on the dusty road in Bure to bury the hatchet at the border, I came to understand the futility and absurdity of war.

Is war ever necessary?

I remembered the lines from Robert Graves:

To you who’d read my songs of War
And only hear of blood and fame,
I’ll say (you’ve heard it said before)
“War’s Hell!”

It must have been hell in Bure in February 1999. No one knows for sure how many died in that parched wasteland.

How many were buried or left abandoned in the trackless sand and turned to dust?

Bure is a surreal place. It reminded me of the sun-scorched Death Valley desert in Eastern California.

I tried to imagine the thousands from both sides who died in that desolate desert and their surviving families and loved ones.

What was gained for all the lives lost, for the broken bones and mangled and maimed bodies?

I paused to look for evidence of enmity between the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea in the rocks and sands of Bure.

Dead men speak never. But if only the rocks could speak. What horrors they would have related?

The sands of time speak only in the hourglass and rocks are stone deaf.

I remember a special moment when we were all walking to the ceremonial event venue in Zalambessa.

As I looked back, thousands of people were following them at a distance.

I paused for a moment and asked myself, “Who is really leading this march for peace? Are the people leading the leaders from behind or the leaders leading the people from the front?”

There was no question in my mind that the people were leading the leaders to peace from behind, thousands strong. The two leaders and their officials were being shepherded by the people.

I lapsed poetic. “How beautiful to see the sheep finally herding their shepherds!”

If the two leaders for any reason had wanted to change their minds that day and decided not to go through with it, could they have done so?

I had agonized over the Ethio-Eritrean conflict for a very long time because I have always believed the two people are one and the same.

Kings, princes, presidents, prime ministers and even colonial powers had reasons to divide the two peoples.

I agonized because untold numbers of Ethiopians have died defending Eritrea and untold number of Eritreans have died defending Ethiopia.

If only the dead could speak.

I always hoped (to a point of conviction) peace will reign between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the not too distant future.

But often, my hopes for peace were dashed.

Hope crushed to earth has risen in Ethiopia.

My dream of PEACE for all Ethiopians

In my July 22, 2012 commentary entitled my “Dream of an Ethiopia at Peace”, I wrote:

No individual leader or single organization in Ethiopia can take on the enormous task of uniting the people. It is the task of all leaders of political organizations, faith institutions, civic associations, youth and women’s groups and others to inspire the people to come together, to unite and to dream together about a new Ethiopia where no one shall again experience the oppression of one by another. It is impossible to unite the people without detoxifying the conversation and abandoning the obsession about one man. To do what Madiba did in South Africa, we must commit to the important task now, and that is “uniting the people of our country.”

I concluded:

But before rushing to judge me harshly or kindly, forget not that I am just a utopian Ethiopian. “Some men see things and say, ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say, ‘Why not?’”. Why not dream of Ethiopia with her children at peace? Why not outdream each other about what is possible, viable and attainable in beautiful Ethiopia? Let us all become utopian Ethiopians! Why not?

My dreams are coming true before my eyes.

I shall prophesy that Abiy Ahmed will bring peace to Ethiopia, and like the sun Ethiopia shall rise over the African horizon.

In my January 2017 commentary, “Dare to Dream With Me About the New Ethiopia in 2017”, I cited Scripture, “Your sons and your daughters shall prophesy,… [and] see visions, and your old men shall dream dreams.”

This old man had 17 dreams for Ethiopia.

No. 1 on his list: “I dream of ONE Ethiopia at Peace.”

Thomas Hobbes opined the rule of human existence in the state of nature was “the war of all against all.”

In two countries that were one for eons, with their civilization that goes back for thousands of years, the rule should be “the peace of all for all.”

Ethiopia and Eritrea shall know peace because that is their common destiny. Peace is the common destiny of the countries of the Horn.

Paraphrasing Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Ethiopia and Eritrea and all the countries in the Horn of Africa and beyond “must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”

Abiy Ahmed: Our man for all seasons

In my October 8, 2018 commentary, “Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Youth and the Power of Medemer”, I wrote Abiy Ahmed is Ethiopia’s “man for all seasons”.

In that commentary, I reviewed his extraordinary achievements of the preceding past six months since he took office.

I waxed poetic:

He brought us the sun and flowers after 27 years of darkness and gloom.
He brought back the lost rainbow to our rainbow nation.
Today, the stormy skies over the Ethiopian rainbow nation have turned azure and we can see clearly over the horizon.
And what difference did Abiy Ahmed make in 180 days?
Abiy Ahmed made a difference not by changing Ethiopia but by changing the hearts and minds of Ethiopians.

I concluded that commentary as follows, “Here is a man who has been in office less than six months and the world is touting him as a strong candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.”

On October 10, 2019, I am happy to say, “Our man for all seasons is the 2019 Nobel Laureate for Peace.”

As I celebrate this great occasion with the people of Ethiopia and Africa, I have not forgotten.

I remember the past 27 years of tears in Ethiopia.

I remember those who who stood up for human rights, equality, justice, democracy and the rule of law, but are not around to enjoy this moment of honor for Ethiopia.

The Peace Prize is for them too.

I remember the long years I felt deep despair and concluded Ethiopia must be a cursed nation, the damned and wretched of the earth.

I cannot remember how many times over the years I read Shakespeare’s Sonnet 29 “And troubled deaf heaven with my bootless cries”.

Now, I have learned “Weeping may stay for the night (for 27 years) but rejoicing comes in the morning (18 months).”

After a 27 year-long night of weeping and mourning, it is morning time in Ethiopia as the sun is rising over a Rising Ethiopia.

Let us rejoice and make sure to count our blessings!

Afterthought: On July 30, 2019, as part of PM Abiy Ahmed’s reforestation campaign named “Green Legacy”, Ethiopia planted more than 353 million trees in 12 hours.

What better weapon to fight climate change?

Next stop: Climate Change Leadership Award for PM Abiy?

CONGRATULATIONS TO PM ABIY AND PRESIDENT ISAIAS!

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL ETHIOPIANS, ERITREANS AND AFRICANS!

The post Peace in Ethiopia, Eritrea and All Africa: Congratulations PM Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afewerki! appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News: Your right to know!.


 Ethiopian blurred Foreign Policy and the adverse effect of Gulf Rivalry   

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By: Metta-Alem Sinishaw
Washington, DC Metro Area

Traditionally, Ethiopia pursues conservative foreign policy, often by aligning its interests with that of powers. The Haile Selassie government pursued political independence, territorial integrity, access to the sea, and non-allied movement internationally while promoting pro-African regional policy. It earned global acclaim, become a diplomatic hub, and a get way to Africa, including hosting African Union (AU) and Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). Powers and multilateral agencies consult Ethiopia on regional peace, security, and immigration matters.

The military government followed similar policies but added socialist ideological orientation with strong affiliation to the former Soviet Union (USSR.)  The end of the cold war and the collapse of the military regime enabled the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to shift foreign policy from socialist to liberal orientation and single handedly defined national security priorities, whose myopic measures rendered Ethiopia landlocked, dismantled national army and encouraged Eritrean aggression.

EPRDF portrayed itself as progressive force with commitment to democratization and poverty eradication internationally and as grantor of collective security in the region. The substantial political and economic assistance it garnered enabled the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), the core-governing group of EPRDF, to maintain dominance over the Ethiopian power structure. However, delayed democratization, marred by corruption, angered Ethiopians to replace the TPLF’s administration by Abiy Ahmed, leader of the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP.)

The U.S. – Iranian nuclear accord triggered threat of Iranian expansion to the Red Sea to which Saudi and Emirates, the two leading Gulf countries precipitated vying for proximity to the Yemen conflict. As rivalry intensified, search for military bases, defense partnership, investment in commercial ports along the Red Sea shipping lanes and acquiring agricultural land multiplied to which economical constrained Horn countries became vulnerable, including shifting abruptly their alliances.  Saudi and Emirates forced Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea to sever their relations with Iran, countered Turkish and Qatari penetration in Sudan and Somalia, and aspired to mitigate tension between Ethiopia and Egypt.

The Gulf has long relations with Ethiopia, since the first hijra, during the Aksumite Empire, but Ethiopia’s ability to handle Gulf’s competition remains huge concern as the new administration engages in a radical foreign policy shift with unprecedented proximity to the Gulf royals. The rivalry has been making relations among Horn countries more complex, demanding resilient policy, smart strategies, and tough negotiations. The lack of clear foreign policy, intra-ethnic squabble among Ethiopian political actors, and strong ethnocentric view of some of the Ethiopian diplomatic mission heads, devoid of national agenda, only exacerbates Ethiopia’s predicament.

Although there is not published policy prescription yet, Abiy seems to follow TPLF’s footsteps.  However, regional integration, engagement with diaspora, and building Navy represent major foreign policy departures.

Engagement with diaspora mainly focused on the repartition of illegal immigrants from Gulf countries, often imprisoned in deplorable conditions. Abiy succeeded in improving the working condition and remuneration of laborers but lost the support he gained from diaspora residing in western countries due to the lack of structural transformation. Although not yet implemented, liberalizing the financial sector could bridge the gap with diaspora on whose remittance the country heavily depends on. Although the free movement of Africans is the first step in the right direction, his regional integration initiative lacks shared political framework, economic model, and institutional platform. Building Navy anew could advance Ethiopian geopolitical interest but will consume Ethiopia’s meager resources and antagonize with some countries.

While the opportunities Gulf rivalry brought remains mainly transactional economic and port services, the challenges it poses are maintaining Ethiopian long held neutrality, security, the Nile hydro politics, and democratization.

  1. Could Ethiopia maintain its traditional position of neutrality?

Despite consistence pressure, Ethiopia resisted taking sides in the Gulf rivalry, at least publicly, and avoided entanglement, became a recognized guarantor of collective regional security in peacekeeping in Somalia, Darfur, Sudan, and South Sudan. Although Abiy reaffirmed unwavering commitment to pan-Africanism, increasing accumulation of Turkish military capability with Qatari capital in Sudan and Somalia on one hand, and Saudi and Emirates control of port services in Djibouti, Eritrea, Puntland, and Somaliland, on the other hand, may have forced Ethiopia to compromise its neutrality.

The signature of the Ethiopia and Eritrea peace agreement outside Africa, in Saudi, is indicative of growing Gulf’s dominance in the Horn and the shift from multilateral commitment. Abiy’ first official visit outside Africa, to Saudi and to Emirates, and the subsequent investment and oil from Emirates and Saudi, respectively, is indicative of Ethiopian inclination, which forced many to doubt Ethiopian neutrality.

Despite Ethiopia’s proximity with Saudi and Emirates, however, Ethiopia exchanged head of state visits with Qatar. Abiy visited Qatar the same day he visited Emirates to demonstrate neutrality and deter Qatar’s alleged communication with TPLF, a nearly breakaway Ethiopian northern region. Rival groups consider Ethiopia strategically too important that they tolerate Ethiopia’s occasional flirting with other actors.  As rivalry continues, Abiy will soon learn, if he has not already, from al-Bashir, whose continued neutrality led to his eventual demise.

In the likely event of abandoning its longstanding tradition, Ethiopia would lose its credibility and face intense pressure, like Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, to stand against Yemen, a country with deeper historical ties than any other Gulf countries, who fought against the Somalian irredentism on the side of Ethiopia. Abiy’s anti-war message that asked Yemeni protagonists “Why do you turn your children into orphans?” has lacked clarity and diplomatic clout which some observers consider as a deliberate effort to hide Ethiopia’s abandonment of its neutral position.

  1. Investment and economic development  

Gulf’s asymmetrical and transactional engagement does not respond to Ethiopia’s current need of multilateral long-term commitment to development. Emirates abrupt termination of support to the Somalian hospital, following a political crisis, shows the magnitude of predicament.

In response to Gulf’s food security objective, Ethiopia offers agricultural land and could be more beneficial if it protects indigenous communities, mitigates environmental concerns, and avoids backdoor deals. If synchronized with small scale farming, the impact of foreign direct investment and diaspora driven technology transfer, when mixed with traditional know how, could increase agricultural productivity, create employment, and boost the national economy.

Emirates did not respond favorably to the Ethiopian call for investment previously, but it has now invested in agriculture and hold large venture in real estate and infrastructure that brings fortune to some while evicting others. Qatar strategizes to invest in Ethiopian food industry, arable lands, livestock, tourism, real estate, and energy sectors. Saudi is the second largest investor, hosts about 400,000 laborers, leases large agricultural land, influences Ethiopian economic and politics strongly via Mohammed Alamoudi, the largest private sector employer in Ethiopia with massive investments in the banking, agriculture, cement, and gold mining, making Saudi the primary export destination and source of Foreign Direct Investment.

With more than half of its $6 billion African investment in Ethiopia, higher than its combined investment in its closest allies, Somalia and Sudan, Turkey has historical and economic interest and could invest further in other sectors and bring expertise in agriculture and dairy.

However, history of authoritarianism, high debt ratio, political instability, endemic drought, and animosity with some of the neighbors could render current outlook complex in attracting investments. Gulf investments are rarely private and increases vulnerability, which undercut Ethiopia’s ability to pursue independent foreign policy.

  1. Access to the Sea and Port Services

Ever since Ethiopia became landlocked under TPLF, lack of access to the Sea and port services have been undermining Ethiopian growth and competitiveness and exacerbating vulnerabilities. Ethiopia’s engagement with Emirates brought significant foreign investment in oil pipeline and road transport to link Ethiopia to Eritrea and Somaliland, respectively, offering competitive price with alternate ports.

Ethiopian 19% stake in the Berbera Port would diminish dependence on Djibouti. However, it reduces optimism in Ethio-Eritrean agreement, irritates relations with Djibouti and China due to declining revenue from their investment in Doraleh port. While Ethiopia’s agreement with Kenya on the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (Lapsset) remains unrealized due to funding and security constraints, the shares Ethiopia reportedly gained in Port Sudan remains unknown.

Abiy introduced ambitious plan to build Naval forces without specifying its location and strategy. If implemented, the Navy will supplement Ethiopia’s tested defense forces and promote its geopolitical interest but entails substantial economic and security implication. Economically, while building Navy anew takes huge investment and longer periods, partnership with the French, a political heavy weight, could entice another string in Ethiopia-Djibouti relations.

As for security, building a Navy in a region with a history of animosity could worsen Ethiopia’s predicament and adversely affect relations with neighbors, especially with Eritrea and/or Somalia. Nevertheless, it provides powers with low cost anti-piracy force to maintain collective security in the Red Sea shipping lanes. If implemented, the Navy will significantly advance Ethiopian geopolitical interest and enable to maintain Ethiopian hegemony on regional security.

  1. Domestic Security

The new administration has not been successful in maintaining security and promoting the rule of law and security remains major constraint for Ethiopians of all lifestyles. Citizen attempting to exercise their civil and political rights were detained, killed, and displaced, including burning of churches and religious unrest, a strong signpost that Ethiopia is slowly returning to the old habits of authoritarianism

Ethnic tension and domestic instability together with increasing price of living installs social anxiety. If the economic challenge persists, the Somalia based Islamic State could easily radicalize the unemployed youth, aggravate instability by deepening the ethnic and religious cleavage, and undermine Ethiopian regional role as grantor of collective security.

Unfiltered proximity to countries pursuing religious based foreign policy could exacerbate Ethiopia’s domestic instability. Saudi and Qatar are accused of supporting “Wahhabism” and Muslim Brotherhood, respectively, which threatens to uproot traditional Sunni moderate religious groups.

The administration’s alignment with foreign rival forces would unavoidably bring Gulf’s meddling in collusion with Ethiopian political actors, characterized by entrenched ethnic animosity and contradictory interests that have a history of cooperating with foreign assailant when they felt marginalized, real or perceived.

Abiy has been accused of not addressing the underlying causes of the revolution and maintaining the apparatus of the oppressive regime intact with personality changes at the highest echelon of state power. The idea of unifying the incumbent ethnic based governing coalition could appease growing frustration among his supporters but antagonize him with decrying ethno nationalists.

Contradictory desire between national and ethnocentric forces seems the major hurdle preventing Abiy from taking a compromise. His seemingly neutral position and continued silence in the face of persistent violence caricatured him accomplice to the ethnic radicals despite nationalist rhetoric.

His most daunting opposition comes from the internal dynamics from Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo regional states. Tigray is the base of the restive TPLF, which allegedly maintains contact with Turkey and Qatar and continues staging destabilization efforts using surrogates. The Amhara regional state, his former stronghold state, has gradually shifted its support due to continued occupation of its territories by TPLF, lack of constitutional reform, controversy surrounding the June 22 massacre, and incarceration of its security leadership. The Oromo regional states, his home state, hosts virulent radical ethnic entrepreneurs working closely with TPLF and other moderate ethno-nationalist groups engaging in internal friction for dominance.

  1. Regional Stability

Ethiopia has been the elephant in the room in the Horn affairs not least because of its failure to realize the magnitude of the unfolding regional dynamics and shifting U.S. policies, but rather due to the desire to maintain neutrality and increased domestic instability.

Ethiopia’s initiative of regional economic integration aims to mitigate the adverse effects of Gulf’s transactional relations. However, it is unclear whether the initiative is harmonized with that of the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the East African Community (EAC) programs that have similar objectives of creating common market, supported by the European Union to contain immigration.

Although free movement of Africans by dismantling the visa requirement is the first step in the right direction, Abiy’s integration initiative did not followed by known free movement of capital and goods or services, which requires clearly articulated political framework and economic modality.  The initiative seems to lack strategic depth as it did not factor the economic, peace, and security constraints member states are facing. The idea of regional integration, without developing shared interest and institutional arrangement, remains a nightmare for a region otherwise characterized by intra-ethnic conflict, boundary claim, and instabilities.

No positive outcome to date stemmed from Abiy’s increased regional shuttle diplomatic efforts, save the mediation effort in Sudan that resulted in the cohabitation of Military and Civilian coalition under fluid condition. Contrary to his aggressive media campaign, his actions brought additional concerns as renewed relation with Eritrea is perceived as an abandonment of Djibouti and Sudan, who maintained hostile relation with Eritrea, until recently.

  1. The Great Renaissance Ethiopian Dam (GRED) and the Nile hydro politics

Due to the Anglo Egyptian colonial legacy, Egypt has never had robust African policy and its public lacks knowledge of Africa and Africans. Its foreign relations narrative depicts Ethiopia as economically poor, politically instable, and strategically unable to develop its water resources. Egypt has effectively exploited its proximity with the West, Sudan, and the Gulf to undermine Ethiopian efforts, including supporting rebel groups since the 1950s, directly and indirectly. In the backdrop of Egypt’s aggressive diplomacy, Ethiopia build stronger partnership among the Nile upper riparian countries, brand GERD as an African dam, generate domestic finance, exploit the Arab spring, and rewrite the Egypt-African exploitative historical relation irreversibly.

Ethiopian excellent strategy brought Sudan, who has been supporting Egypt, often against Ethiopia, and led to Egypt’s accusation of Sudan for favoring Ethiopian perceived intent of quickly filling the dam, deplete the flow of the Nile River, and allow Sudan to retain its full share. Sudan maintains cordial relations with Ethiopia, protect the dam, and even arrested an Eritrean militant group that targeted the dam.

Egypt’s recognition as intermediator between the West and the Arab world was instrumental to prevent Ethiopia from accessing western and multilateral financing to not only the Nile River but also other water resource projects remotely linked to Nile.

Egypt has been cultivating strong relations with each of Ethiopian neighbors but failed to gain air force base in Sudan and South Sudan, at least until now. When Eritrea and Ethiopia were in hostility, Egypt and Eritrea, members of the Saudi coalition, have maintained strong bilateral relation amid the tense relations among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over GERD, implying that the reconciliation with Eritrea minimizes Egypt’s potential partners.

Egypt’s strategic depth made its ambivalent position acceptable to both Gulf and Iran that Saudi and Emirates consider archenemy.  Egypt and Iran represent two sides of the core Islamic agenda: On one hand, Egypt stands with Saudi and Emirates and strongly opposes Turkey and Qatar for supporting Muslim Brotherhood that it considers as existential threat, and on the other hand, it shares Iran’s strategic objective on supporting Syria and oversighting Israeli’s nuclear program. Egypt accuses Israel of selling the Spyder-MR air defense system to Ethiopia to shield the GERD project and demand not to sell similar products and services in the future. Moreover, Egypt represents the military powerhouse of the Gulf but refused to deploy its troops and provided only symbolic military advisors to legitimize Gulf’s operation in Yemen.

Saudi and Egypt have controversial claim on Tiran and Sanafir islands and while Egypt hopes to influence Ethiopia through the Gulf, especially via Emirates on whom Ethiopia becomes increasingly dependent, Saudi leveraged Ethiopia to influence Egypt in the past.

Egypt considers Ethiopian development efforts on the Nile river as existential threats, declares that all options are on the table, and warns that if Nile’s water “diminishes by one drop, then our blood is the alternative.” However, the threats of war have significantly reduced, especially after the May 2018 tripartite agreement and Abiy’s affirmation to Egyptian, upon responding to the request of the Egyptian President, in which he said, “I swear to God, we will never hurt you” following which Ethiopia reduced the number of planned turbine on the dam at least by three. Despite ongoing engagement, there is no consensus on the length of time that should take to fill the dam and on revising the 1952 agreement that awarded much of Nile’s water to Egypt.

Ethiopian counter against strategic perceptive Egypt should include aligning with Turkey, Egypt’s bitter rival, strengthening relation with Sudan, and deterring Egyptian penetration in Ethiopian neighbors. Egypt is likely to exploit Ethiopian internal turmoil for destabilization and undermine Ethiopia’s tranquility needed to complete the GERD project, which calls for strategic oversight over Ethiopian growing ethnic entrepreneurs and media outlets that promote ethnic animosity and exacerbate political instability. However, only time will tell whether Ethiopia could mend its fractured ruling party, consolidate its opportunistic opposition, minimize its vulnerability, and complete the GRED project that Egypt continues undermining.

  1.  Delayed democratization

Despite initial efforts, Abiy did not introduced fundamental policy changes but become closer to Gulf absolutists’ monarchies whose power base pillar are increasingly threatened by democracy, especially after the Arab spring during which Saudi and Emirates opposed Egyptian revolution, supported the overthrow of Egyptian president Morsi, and suppressed the Sudanese revolution. They also meddled in the Somalian presidential election, strengthened the Eritrean strongman, in power since 1991, allegedly support Yemen’s secessionist movements and to two of Somalia’s broke way regions, which suggests that Ethiopia cannot be an exception.

In a glaring defiance to public demand, Abiy has not yet introduced comprehensive road map on how he will transition Ethiopia towards democratization. Despite international applaud, improvement on human right, civil liberties, and political openings seem stagnating, which demonstrate Abiy’s reluctance to structural reforms and the abandonment of his promise.  Less than seven months for the election, the election bill remains unpublished after its approval and it is still unclear whether election will be held on schedule as more than half of the opposition groups are complaining about undue requirements and exclusion.

The administration has been allegedly purging perceived rivals under the pretext of unsuccessful coup d’états, which raises credibility concern on its commitment to democracy. Legal experts claim that the anti-terrorism law, the suspended repressive tool of the previous administration, whose replacement draft is awaiting parliament’s approval has been shelved, and the old law is now in full application to incarcerate perceived opponents. In the face of more fractured ruling party, political instability, and fictive opposition, no alternative force emerged which makes the prospects of democratization unlikely.

Ethiopia’s continued focus on ethnic enclave diminishes economic opportunities for its growing population and undermines social mobility as security and instability hamper physical mobility even within Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s relatively giant economy could serve as pragmatic platform for regional integration, but only if Ethiopia could stop its internal bleeding caused by ethnic polarization. The question remains whether a divided country can be internally unified and be integrated with other contiguous countries amid growing ethnic animosities.

If not accompanied with democratization, both liberalization and integration will not serve Ethiopia best. Many suspects that privatization of Ethiopian seasoned and competitive key assets (Ethiopian Airlines, Telecommunication, Shipping lines Agency) in the face of growing instability would only serve to transfer wealth to selected ethnic elites. The country has had a history of hasty privatizations that neither improved citizens’ livelihood nor contributed to national economy due to corruption and lack of accountability.

Gulf’s backdoor agricultural investment with no concern for indigenous communities would only worsen ethnic tension and instability. In the face of mounting instability and human rights violation, cooperation with absolutist Gulf monarchists, partnership with dominant-party promoter China, and growing engagement with autocratic Russia could not warrant transition to democracy but offer an assurance for the reemergence of the next new strongman.

For comments or conversation: mettaalems@gmail.com

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Abiy Ahmed Won the Nobel Peace Prize. Now He Needs to Earn It.

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The New York Times
Opinion

By Tobias Hagmann and 

Mr. Hagmann and Mr. Tronvoll are academics, and Eritrea and Ethiopia specialists.

The Abyssinian spring in Ethiopia has entered a critical phase.

Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, in Berlin for a G20 investment summit in 2018.CreditCreditKay Nietfeld/DPA, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Some honors come too late; others too early. Others still risk scuttling the efforts they are rewarding.

Last week Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for, the Nobel committee said, “his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea” and starting “important reforms that give many citizens hope for a better life and a brighter future.”

Since coming to power in April 2018, Mr. Abiy has taken Ethiopia on a political roller coaster. His administration started rapprochement with Eritrea after nearly two decades of stalemate — following a vicious war from 1998 to 2000 and a peace treaty — which some have called a state of “no war–no peace.” He has had tens of thousands of political prisoners released, has invited back banned political parties and armed groups, has apologized for human rights violations, has revoked repressive laws, has started to open up the economy and has appointed women to leading positions in government.

One could argue that not since Mikhail Gorbachev — another Nobel Peace Prize laureate — introduced glasnost to the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s has any country embarked on such radical reforms. But a lot more needs to happen before Mr. Abiy can deliver on his pledges, and for ordinary Ethiopians his efforts so far have been a white-knuckle ride.

Federalism and multiparty elections were introduced to Ethiopia in 1995, but it is only now that genuine democracy appears imaginable in Africa’s second most populous country. The long-dominant Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (E.P.R.D.F.), born as a revolutionary Marxist-Leninist coalition, never fully bought into the liberal democratic principles it introduced in the 1995 Constitution; it essentially ruled the country by semi-authoritarian means. For many years, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (T.P.L.F.), which claims to represent the interests of the people from Tigray, a northern state bordering Eritrea — about 6 percent of the population — essentially monopolized decision-making within the governing coalition. Over time, this form of minority rule alienated the Oromo people (more than 34 percent of the population) and the Amhara people (about 27 percent).

Opposition parties rode on popular discontent with the E.P.R.D.F. in the 2005 elections. But then, after the ruling party claimed victory anyway and the opposition challenged that announcement, protests broke out and the government repressed them. Eventually, frustration led to countrywide protests between 2016 and 2018, during which Oromo youth in particular blamed the government for a lack of genuine representativeness, land grabbing and repression.

The massive demonstrations — during which more than 1,000 people were killed and 20,000 people were imprisoned — forced then Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign in February 2018. When Mr. Abiy, an Oromo, took over in April, he was able to claim the helm with the backing of the Oromo and Amhara parties within the E.P.R.D.F. coalition. He has preached a political philosophy of “medemer” — “adding up” or “coming together” in Amharic — and promoted a more inclusive political culture. The idea is, in part, to transcend Ethiopia’s federal system, which was drawn along ethnic lines and which over the years has infused politics with a kind of sectarian fervor.

But Mr. Abiy’s Abyssinian spring has now entered a critical phase. With the sudden slackening of political controls and the dismantling of some of the state’s authoritarian features under his administration, repressed ethnicpolitical and religious conflicts have resurfaced across the country. As a result, about 2.9 million people currently are internally displaced, according to the Global Report on Internal Displacement — the largest such figure for any country.

The E.P.R.D.F. coalition itself is still divided along ethnic lines. In some parts of Ethiopia, such as the southeastern Somali region, changes in the central government have translated into changes in regional governments, and longtime T.P.L.F. loyalists have been replaced with Abiy supporters. Yet in other areas, regional ethnic parties that are part of the E.P.R.D.F. have dug in their heels — in particular in the regions of Oromia and Amhara. Such instances of resistance have weakened the federal government and complicated its efforts to ease various conflicts or push forward with reforms.

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Ethiopian politicians should agree a transition period, and use it wisely

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A wide range of political actors should support a five-year transition period that will tackle fundamental divisions and pave the way for fair elections

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“Medemer” by Abiy Ahmed, Ph.D., An Interpretive Book Review in Two Parts

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By Prof. Alemayehu G. Mariam

“Medemer” (original in Amharic), Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, 280 pp. (October 2019)

Part I — The “philosophy” of “Medemer”

Reviewer’s Note:
This review is intended for the benefit and convenience of English-speaking audiences who have a sincere desire to understand and rigorously critique “Medemer” philosophy for what it is and is not. It offers the reviewer’s personal reflections and perspectives on the Medemer idea or philosophy and aims to invite others to review the book and thoughtfully discuss its usefulness and relevance to Ethiopia.

In nearly fourteen years of uninterrupted weekly commentaries, I have done only one other book review.[1] “Medemer” is my second book review. I prefer to read/review books that have intellectual integrity, are thought-provoking and bring fresh perspectives.

This rather long interpretive book review[2], divided in two parts, aims to accomplish three objectives: 1) critically examine Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s [hereinafter “Author”] “philosophy” of “Medemer”, 2) comprehensively evaluate his historical and policy analysis and prescriptions based on “Medemer” principles, and 3) assess the relevance “Medemer” for nation- and consensus-building, political stability, good governance and economic prosperity in Ethiopia and beyond.

“Medemer” is a book of extraordinary complexity and simplicity[3]. It could be likened to an onion. It has different layers. In one layer, it is a philosophy as the author characterizes it. But in different layers, “medemer” could be understood as a vision, a theory, a road map, a paradigm shift, a mindset, a (meta)concept, an outlook, a call to action and an appeal to common sense.

The author broadly argues “Medemer” philosophy is a comprehensive socio-political economic perspective necessitated by the events of the past several decades in Ethiopia. It analyzes objective historical conditions and makes practical prescriptions for political reform and economic progress.

I regard “Medemer” not so much as a “book” but as the “philosophical” equivalent of an open source “software” such as Ubuntu[4] for use or modification as users/practitioners or other “developers” see fit.

“Medemer software developers” can fix bugs, improve functions, or adapt the “open source Medemer code” to suit their own needs, as indeed I have done so.

I believe the author’s intention is for people to read and critically evaluate “Medemer” and use it as an actionable set of ideas, a “philosophy”, a methodology or an approach to problem analysis and solving in politics, economics and society in Ethiopia and beyond.

“Medemer” is not intended to be a work of academic scholarship; and my review is not a conventional academic book review.[5] Rather, it is an expository review of the ideas, views, reflections and perspectives (or philosophy) of a political leader who burst on the Ethiopian and world scene barely 18 months ago and today is considered a wunderkind[6] in world politics, a fact validated in his award of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.[7]

Over the past year, I have written extensively[8] on “Medemer” from my own perspective and without the benefit of the recently published book or having ever discussed the idea with the author. [9] But I have followed and carefully considered the author’s comments and statements on Medemer in various forums. In the interest of full disclosure, I have written numerous commentaries[10] in support of the author’s ideas, including Medemer, and his extraordinary leadership in Ethiopia over the past year and half.

It has been said that “there is something more powerful than the brute force of bayonets: it is the idea whose time has come and hour struck.”

Throughout history, words and ideas have changed the world. “In the beginning was the word.”

In Ethiopia, for nearly five decades, we have tried the bayonet and the bullet. Words and phrases like “Red Terror”, “White Terror”, “Terrorism” have been used to kill by military and brigands-cum-civilian dictators who for decades turned Ethiopia into killing fields of Africa.

Today, Ethiopia needs words that heal, not kill.

I believe “Medemer” is a word/philosophy that heals.

The time has come and the hour struck to do battle of ideas in Ethiopia.

Let the best idea win the battle for the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people.

I hope Ethiopian intellectuals with honesty and courage will read “Medemer” cover to cover and engage the author in robust debate and discussion in all public forums.

Frankly, I am not optimistic that will happen.

So-called Ethiopian intellectuals, by and large, have long been intimidated into silence by military and civilian dictators. Many have silenced themselves dreading the slanderous vilification campaigns of ignorant ideologues, the affront of insolent mobs, the taunts, invectives and indignities of the feeble-minded and dim-witted whose “tongues outvenom all the worms of Nile and whose breath rides on the posting winds of anger and arrogance” to paraphrase Shakespeare. Others have simply gone AWOL. Suffice it to say, the vast majority of Ethiopian “intellectuals” have cowered and taken a vow of silence and live comfortably in a “hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil” world. The few left standing hide in the shadows playing intellectual snipers under pen names and pseudonyms.

Today, Ethiopia’s men and women of ideas —  “Intellectuals” —  consist of talking heads, hordes of empty barrels and swarms of nameless, faceless and clueless hoi polloi social media ignoramuses who have the intellectual candle power of jellyfish. All I expect from them is to latch on a word or phrase in the book and spin it for disinformation, propaganda and lies. The good thing is that it is a matter of mind over matter for me. I don’t mind and they don’t matter.  

However, I urge Ethiopian intellectuals (that still register a pulse) to wake up from their slumber and vigorously tackle the ideas presented in Medemer. Review it. Critique it. Analyze it. Synthesize it. Comment on it. Appraise it. Improve upon it.

Better yet, if you can, present your own alternative and join the battle of ideas, the battle for the hearts and minds of Ethiopians.

I am sure there will be some who, after reading my book review, say I did not do this or that or address this issue or another in the book.

All I can say is this: As you point an accusatory finger at me for what I covered or failed to cover, be mindful that three fingers are pointing at you.

My challenge is: Write your review of Medemer and let’s have an open and public discussion.  

For my part, I shall help organize scholarly and academic discussions to critically review the ideas in Medemer.  I shall continue to comment and join in public debates and discussions on Medemer ideas.

In Part I, I discuss the author’s “theory” or “philosophy” of Medemer.

In Part II, I examine the application of Medemer theory/philosophy to Ethiopian political and economic realities.

Why did the author write “Medemer”?

I have no personal knowledge of the reasons that compelled the author to write the book. However, having read the book I have identified at least five reasons:

1) Ethiopians (Africans) need to develop a modern Afro-centric philosophy/system of ideas that reflects their history, culture, traditions and challenges;

2) Ethiopians (Africans) have failed miserably in their efforts to indigenize imported ideologies they barely understood and which at best have marginal relevance to their circumstances. Wholesale imported ideologies have done considerable long-term damage to Ethiopian (African) politics, societies and economies.

3) Ethiopians (Africans) should be eclectic and selective in adopting beliefs, ideas and methods from the West and the East and carefully integrate only those ideas that harmonize with the African experience, traditions, practices and realities.

4) Ethiopians (Africans) need to take a fresh look at their deeply seated and longstanding problems, issues and aspirations through an African lens and not through the distorted lens they have chosen or have been forced to use. Their lens should be focused squarely on contemporary African realities including poverty, disease, ignorance, one-man, one-party rule, widespread human rights violations, abuse of power and disregard for the rule of law, corruption and so on.[11]

5) Ethiopians (Africans) can use “Medemer” as their own homegrown forward-looking philosophy/system of ideas to overcome the burdens of the past and to find a pathway to lasting peace and prosperity in their country and in the continent.

What is “Medemer philosophy”?

Over the past year, the author has talked about “Medemer” in his public speeches and official statements.

In some media accounts, Medemer has been equated with “synergy” and an attempt to transform a “mosaic into a melting pot.”[12]

In a recent speech[13] marking a breakthrough in the Sudan negotiations which resulted in power sharing between the military and civilians, the author explained “the people of Sudan have done well in choosing cooperation over competition which is essential to our collective survival”. He said, the Horn region must “act in synergy” and Medemer becomes a “yarn weaving us together collectively” and help us achieve “collectively what we can only imagine individually”.

In a radio interview in September 2019[14], the author explained the essence of Medemer in metaphorical terms (auth. trans.):

It is a lens through which we see ourselves and the world. It begins with the idea that nothing is full, there is always something lacking in individual or social life. For instance, let’s look at the family. They wish for their child to get an education. When s/he graduates, they wish s/he will get a good job, then start a family, have children, if all are one gender, then strive to have the opposite gender and so on. There is no end. There will always be something missing. We can meet our ever-changing needs by cooperating with and enlisting the help and support of others. So, humans must operate by balancing an existence based on cooperation and competition.

One prominent Ethiopian scholar has offered his own contrasting perspectives on Medemer ideas.[15] A journalist who has manifestly not read the book has offered cavalier remarks.[16]

In the dynamic processes of cooperation and competition, Medemer represents synergy (from the Latin root “syn” (“together”) and “ergy” (“work”)). Medemer  describes a synergistic process of coming together of individuals, groups, leaders and institutions to work more energetically, effectively and creatively for the common good and in the public interest[17]. That synergy, using a physics metaphor, would be like fusion in which nuclei combine to release vast amounts of energy. When individuals, groups, institutions, etc. come together in “medemer” form, they release a vast amount of social, political and economic energy.

Along the same line, in October 2018, I created[18] an equation for “medemer”: (where Sc is social capital defined as the networks of relationships among people who live and work in a particular society; and Ac is defined as the number of active citizens involved in sustained engagement in their communities (at all levels: grassroots, civil society, villages, town, cities, nationwide activity).

This equation resonates an old Ethiopian saying. “If the silk in spiders’ web could be made into twine, it could tie up a lion.”[19]

I believe the author’s philosophy of Medemer supports the proposition that if 100 million Ethiopians could only lend each other a hand (“Medemer”) in good will and good faith, they could uplift not only their country but also the world. A large number of ordinary Ethiopians organized, coming together in consensus with a common agenda and set of goals and acting synergistically as one can defeat the greatest enemies of the Ethiopian people: poverty, disease, illiteracy, ethnic hate, corruption, bad governance and gross violations of human rights.

Following the author’s argument, the outcome of the collaborative synergy in Medemer is not limited to the pursuit of aspirations of a just, egalitarian, democratic and humane society. It also includes synergistic grassroots engagement in cleaning streets, planting trees and volunteerism in all aspects of society.

In the author’s Medemer synergy, the idea I believe is that “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” In other words, for an organization or society to be successful, the functional elements cannot consist of merely individuals working independently and exclusively in their own self-interest. They must be part of a larger community that shares a common purpose, goals and objectives and apply social, political and economic synergy to create a public good.

In my view, the author’s discussion of “Medemer” in light of the fractious nature of Ethiopian politics has a broader meaning which incorporates the idea of “synthesis” (not only synergy) or the combining of the constituent elements of separate parts into a single or unified entity.

In that sense, Medemer reflects the dynamic process of combining (adding together) disparate ideas and actions into an integrated whole. In Hegelian dialectics, ideas and actions are in a constant state of conflict and harmony. For every thesis there is anti-thesis and ultimately synthesis, repeating the cycle. To satisfy human needs, there is competition which by itself is a source of destructive conflict. Cooperation is needed to avert conflict and create constructive cooperation. Thus, synergy produces synthesis recreating a dialectical cycle.

Medemer philosophy aims to bring synthesis to Ethiopia’s fractious politics. It aims to harmonize the politics of identity, sectarianism and communalism into a synthesis of nation-building, civility, tolerance, love, understanding and forgiveness.  

Medemer defies simple definition. Those who are seeking a glossary definition of the term are unlikely to find it. The author explains the basic idea of Medemer could be deduced from the etymology of the word “demere” in Amharic, which means “‘gathered, put together in one, added, accumulated”.

Despite its lexical roots, Medemer as discussed in the book is fundamentally a system of re-imagining Ethiopian (and African societies) society in a contemporary context. It is a vision of a society based on a balanced system of cooperation and competition. It completely rejects notions of division in society by class, ethnic, racial, sectarian, communal, ideological, linguistic, etc. classifications.

The author suggests “Medemer” philosophy/lens assumes human beings conduct their affairs in the context of cooperation and competition. It posits competition is a key element of the struggle for existence and self-preservation. It occurs in a web or ecosystem of socio-political and economic relations.

The uneven distribution of resources creates cut-throat competition, corruption and exploitation in society as a small group of political and economic predators and parasites feast on a large defenseless group of prey (masses). In its extreme, such competition creates a dog-eat-dog jungle world where the strongest, the most cunning, the clever and quick-witted survive and the rest unable to compete simply fall between the cracks, disengage or are discarded.

Medemer philosophy favors cooperation over competition because humans as social/political creatures (animals) maximize their rational self-interest through cooperation. Drawing on natural analogues, the author posits the precedence of  cooperation over competition. Human and non-human animals generally tend to work together in order to create benefit for themselves. They generally avoid destructive competition that leads to mutual or self-annihilation.

In my assessment, Medemer represents not just a philosophy (a set of abstract ideas) but a weltanshauung, a cognitive worldview and an orientation encompassing the individual’s and society’s knowledge and outlook of the world and the place of humanity within it. The author discussed this aspect of Medemer at length in his radio interview referenced above. Specifically, Medemer is a worldview rooted in Ethiopian traditions, cultures, history, politics and economics.

The author argues social problems cannot be solved by governmental action or extraordinary individual effort. Social groups and institutions must be directly engaged in working together in harmony for a common destiny. In doing so, they can promote a culture of peace, cooperation, tolerance and civility. Institutions such as churches, schools, civil society institutions, businesses, etc., play critical roles in this regard.

The author discusses in some detail the political and economic circumstances that facilitate Medemer using existing underlying stock of social capital, networks, etc. in a historical and institutional context.

Beyond being an outlook, Medemer as a philosophy in my assessment is essentially about inclusiveness. It resonates the principle, “Without you, there is no me. Without me, there is no you.” As Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”

Indeed, without each other in Ethiopia, there is only “the other”.[21]  The “other” who is the enemy. The “other” who must be annihilated. The “other” who is a stranger among us, even though in every way s/he is one of us, our flesh and blood.

In my view, applied broadly to Ethiopian society, Medemer creates a simple calculus: Without Oromos, there are no Amharas; without Amharas, there are no Tigreans; without Tigreans there are no Somalis; without Somalis, there are no Sidama; without Sidama, there are not Woleyita; without Woleyita, there are no Afari; without Afari, there are no Harari; without Harari, there are no Anuak; without Anuak, there are no Gurage and on and on. Amharas, Oromos, Tigreans…. and the other groups can work cooperatively and even competitively for their collective betterment and prosperity.

When Ethiopians of diverse backgrounds come together, they function like fingers on the hand. They can make a fist and repel aggression. They can open their palms and give each other a hand up. They can do all things that the so-called developed countries have done by harnessing (Medemer) their collective energies.

Medemer philosophy could serve as our lifeline to save us from sinking aboard a ship of fools.[20]

In this regard, I believe Medemer is a (metaconcept) multidimensional concept.

In “Medemer society”, there is a need to establish norms and rules for cooperation, competition and networking and the creation of a national movement that is driven by synergistic civic engagement at the grassroots level and among public and private institutions to achieve a variety of common goals including development and democracy. Individuals must strive to play fair by the rules of Medemer society. For instance, corrupt practices by public officials not only harm the society by diverting resources but also rob public confidence in the system of cooperation and competition.

In “Medemer politics”, social synergy occurs in collaborative networks at the institutional and grassroots levels. In my analysis, “Medemer Politics” is a stark contrast to the zero-sum politics of the past 27 years. I have discussed that issue in a previous commentary extensively[22]. For instance, in 2008, in “elections” for regional parliaments 1,903 of 1,904 seats were won by one party. In 2010, tone party won 99.6 percent of these seats in parliament followed by 100 percent in in 2015. Such victory occurred in a country boasting 79 registered opposition political parties.

Ethiopia’s political problems are rooted in ethnic identity, ideological polarity, lack of democratic political culture, etc. These problems can be solved when institutional stakeholders work at the grassroots level for a common goal. Political parties need not be splintered into 108 separate token entities. They can come together into three or four cohesive organizations and present a formidable multiparty political challenge and choice by energizing and mobilizing the grassroots.

The essence of Medemer democratic politics from the author’s perspective is bring together the now 108 or so “political parties” into a reasonable number of 3 or 4 political parties that can successfully compete for electoral victory. Medemer politics requires political competition based ideas, programs, principles, etc., and not ethnicity, religion, language and so on.

In Medemer politics, the old approach of “tear down and discard everything of the past” has no place. The author argues we should preserve what is best from the old and the past and introduce innovations to improve the lives and conditions of the people.  Medemer, in this regard, is a critique of the approach to change particularly in the past one-half century. The author rejects the tendency Ethiopians have shown to always tear down everything of the past and urges that it is far more profitable to build upon what has already been done. Medemer politics argues for use of political energy not to fight the old and tear down the past but to build a brave new society of the future that thrives on consensus and cooperation for a common destiny.

In “Medemer economics”, the starting point is the jarring realization that poverty in Ethiopia is deep-rooted and spans centuries. Some 85 percent of the population makes a living in subsistence agriculture. Solving them requires the synergistic interaction of entrepreneurs, innovators, investors, planners and leaders. The author explains the necessity of sustaining economic development and prosperity by making basic reforms in the financial sectors, opening up key economic activities to private investment, creating more job opportunities for youth, ensuring fair distribution of benefits to the population and enhancing the agricultural, manufacturing and mining sectors through direct foreign investment. The Medemer economy aims to create new structures and instruments of community development that deliver balanced, equitable and sustainable development as an alternative to the uneven, inequitable development driven by massive state spending and foreign debt. The author has proposed a medemer-based economic strategy which aims to innovate on the “developmental state” through “homegrown economic reform.”[23]

Medemer also has in an intellectual dimension. The “Medemer intellectual” is not tied to the tired and discredited ideologies of the past or the unimaginative and sterile analysis of identity politics or the discredited ideas of socialism and totalitarianism. Medemer offers the intellectual a new way of thinking which examines historical failures and successes for the purpose of reinventing a new society based on a set of core beliefs in society around shared goals, dreams and aspirations. The author argues the best role for intellectuals is to bring diverse viewpoints, facts and analysis to the marketplace of ideas and try to sell them to the people. By bringing together scattered ideas, discarding old ones and adding new ones, it is possible to develop a syntheses that can help guide Ethiopia out of the shoals of  political turbulence, economic decay and social strife.

In my view, the author presents a far more nuanced and delicately complex conception of Medemer which combines social, economic, political and philosophical ideas and approaches. Because of that, I characterize “Medemer” as a metaconcept, a conceptual system that incorporates a variety of ideas necessary for rational deduction and inferences about the future of Ethiopia. In the “metaconcept” of “Medemer”, one finds not only philosophical and policy prescriptions but also a general call to all segments of society to dare to think differently, creatively, imaginatively and honestly.

The necessity for Medemer philosophy in Ethiopia

The author lays out the genesis of his “Medemer” ideas in a conception of human nature driven by three interrelated needs or desires: 1) the need for survival and self-preservation, 2) the need for self-dignity and identity actualized in the pursuit of equality and purpose, and 3) the need for freedom actualized in terms of personal autonomy, self-determination and individual liberty. The author argues these three factors together define core aspects of human existence though these needs are rarely fully satisfied. However, these needs, which could be contradictory or complementary, must be met to some extent to make the person whole.

Undergirding these need/desires is the author’s notion of “free will”, broadly understood as the ability to choose between different possible courses of action unimpeded. Thus, in the Medemer conception, man has the power expressed through free will to change his natural ecosystem or social environment for good or ill. Man chooses to make peace or war, or to compete or cooperate.

In my understanding of the author’s argument, free will in Medemer is intimately tied to moral responsibility, ethical imperatives and self-control when people take actions. He implicitly rejects causal determinism which assumes every event and choice is caused by some event in the past or in history.

The author argues the dominant modern ideological systems have sought to meet basic human needs in various ways. He contrasts liberalism and socialism and identifies the key ideological differences in their comprehension of equality and freedom. Liberalism, the author argues, in its original formulation evolved as a belief in the right of individuals to freely pursue their own goals by self-chosen means without infringing on the liberties of others. Liberalism as an ideology promoted individual freedom, rule of law and private property, with the free exchange of goods and ideas. It strongly resisted state economic controls.

His conception of liberalism has Lockean roots. Government is created in a social contract for the purpose of protecting and preserving the individual’s natural right to life, liberty and property and always careful not to violate these rights. He argues liberalism is the ideological foundation for the Industrial Revolution based on a free market economy regulated by the Invisible Hand[24]. As liberalism is a reaction to tyranny, it promotes limited government and sees answers in a market economy.

According to the author, the primary function of government in a liberal society is the protection of the pre-existing rights of the individual. The government grants no rights, but merely acts as an arbiter to prevent others from infringing on each other’s rights.

Socialism, he argues, is a reaction to liberalism. The concentration of power and wealth in a liberal system gives rise to inequality. Workers are exploited and mistreated. Since workers create wealth through their labor, they should be primary beneficiaries. The socialist solution is to bury capitalism and on its grave build an economy that maximizes equality even at the cost of political liberties. But socialist systems often morphed into totalitarianism.

Reconciling freedom and equality is at the core of modern political struggles. In a liberal democracy, the aim is not to abolish capitalism which is the source of inequality but to fix it by using social welfare programs that minimize inequality and meet basic needs.

The author perceives the confluence of the ideological struggle in the Ethiopian student movement of the 1960s as a critical historical watershed. He argues the demand for change and revolutionary sentiment expressed in the student movement was uninformed, shallow, doctrinaire and dogmatic. The student movement had a superficial understanding of socialism. The students had little understanding of their country’s history or longstanding and deep-seated problems. Their understanding did not go much beyond sloganeering about workers’ exploitation and rights. But the whole effort was ahistorical as there were few industries at the time and the number of workers was minuscule.

With the student movement in Ethiopia in the 1960s, the tendency was to demonize those who did not agree to the established orthodoxy of a few leaders. Dissent was stamped out in vilification campaigns. In the post-1960s period, this trend contributed significantly to political polarization which inevitably produced social and political divisions.

The author laments the fact that rebellious youth of the 1960s and early 1970s got drunk on foreign ideas they did not understand. The same dynamics drove the military Derg which dethroned the monarchy and adopted socialist policies wholesale without much understanding or capacity to properly apply it to local conditions. To maintain power, the Derg copycatted the red and white terror campaigns of other socialist countries to deal with its opponents and dissenters. When the command economy of socialism did not work, in the end the Derg tried the mixed economy of capitalism. But that was too little too late.

The author argues the failure of socialism left a major gap in the political debate. That vacuum was filled by debates over ethnicity, religion, language, region, etc. Following the fall of the Derg, there was Western pressure to liberalize the economy, open the political space, allow free press, public demonstrations and formation of new political parties and so on.

The Derg’s socialism morphed into TPLF/EPRDF’s “revolutionary democracy”[25] (RD) with unmistakable hostility to “neoliberalism”.[26] But RD, the author argues, had the wrong view of progressive forces which led to wide scale persecution and bad governance. RD was supposed to be a temporary transitional process but ended up being permanent having tied the economy to all aspects society.

The developmental state (DS) which was the outgrowth of revolutionary democracy was intended to achieve the miraculous transformation of the “Asian Tigers”[27]. But in Ethiopia that was hindered by limited foreign investment, absence of the rule of law and due process and cronyism. The DS restricted political space. Ultimately, the RD originally designed to benefit the peasants ended up creating a single-party system, led to the control of the bureaucracy and destruction of the opposition.

As the capitalist mode became dominant, RD was unable to withstand the diverse economic demands and pressures. Unable to deliver economically, RD’s principal focus became the creation of a strong party instead of a strong civil service which in turn created massive political crises.

The author argues the object lesson from the experiences of the past decades is that wholesale importation of foreign ideologies which the elite in Ethiopia neither fully understood nor could execute has proven to be harmful. This necessarily posits the question whether Ethiopians could craft their own “ideology” or philosophy rooted in their own history, culture and realities. Such a task need not be a rejection of foreign ideologies. It must however be critical, eclectic, syncretic and ultimately aim to create a society that values cooperation and collaboration and minimize conflict.

Ergo, the need for medemer philosophy.

The author argues there are various obstacles to acceptance and practice of Medemer.

These obstacles I describe as “Medemer-phobia syndrome”.

By phobia I mean an “exaggerated usually inexplicable and illogical fear of a particular object, events or situation.” (Notethere are no ready English language equivalents to the terms of art used by the author. The translations of key words and phrases used by the author are the reviewer’s and may not entirely reflect the Amharic meaning, denotation and connotation intended by the author.)

Those who have fear or anxiety about “Medemer” avoid efforts aimed at building national consensus on a common destiny or shared national goals. They would rather foment dissensus and cause ethnic, communal and sectarian strife. The author argues, Ethiopians need national unity. They cannot exist as geographical fragments, monads. Nations, nationalities and peoples in Ethiopia share a common destiny emanating from historical, cultural and social ties. But those afflicted by “Medemer-phobia” will spread fear and loathing to keep the population in a state of alarm and uncertainty hoping it will open an opportunity for them to grab power.

There is “maquref” (“pouting”). To me “maquref” in Medemer means “If I don’t get my way, I will take my ball and go home.” Medemer requires give and take, making compromises and negotiations. But those who insist on “my way or the highway” throw obstacles in the way.

Indifference is another obstacle the author identifies as an obstacle. Some people who in principle agree with Medemer philosophy nonetheless dismiss it and remain silent out of suspiciousness, cynicism or pessimism. They see an imaginary hidden agenda in Medemer.

There is “engedenet” (“estranagement”) or keeping distance and failure to be engaged. Those afflicted by engedenet prefer to watch from the sidelines unable or unwilling to be directly involved in Medemer experience. They think they can get a better opportunity by waiting it out.

Another obstacle is “walta regetenet” (“narrow-mindedness” or “dogmatism”). Those suffering from this affliction are sources of polarization. They see things in stark contrast of black and white. They do not appreciate reality is shaded and with gradation. There is nothing that is all bad and all good. Human beings have some elements of each. It has been said, “If men were angels, government would not be needed.”

There are those afflicted by “gize takakinet”. These are the sticks-in-the-mud. They drive looking in the rear-view mirror. They are stuck in the past and unable to change or work synergistically. Medmer is a forward-looking philosophy and requires people to look at yesterday to learn lessons and not repeat mistakes.

There are those who engage in simplification of issues. They see problems and issues without a context. They lack imagination. They thrive on disconnected ideas. They make mountains out of molehills.

The culture of disregard for professions is another obstacle to Medemer. There are those who do not value professions. They demean and disrespect those who have skills. They look down on musicians, metal workers, pottery makers, tanners and so on. They look at merchants as thieves. Such attitudes undermine and devalue professions and retard the country’s economic development.

There are those who are ill-tempered and hardwired to think negatively are obstacles to Medemer. They are bereft of useful ideas but thrive in opposing whatever is trending.

Those who operate without a conscience, lack a moral compass and are driven by greed and self-interest represent an obstacle to Medemer.

Malingering (“ligmegenet”) and those who intentionally avoid responsibility and procrastinate constitute another obstacle to Medemer.

Does “Medemer” philosophy hold true in nature?

In his references to the natural order of things, it is clear the author believes “Medemer” philosophy is not mere abstraction or theoretical construct but empirically demonstrable in the natural order of things.

In my view, the author’s conception of “Medemer” is rooted in two organic propositions: cooperative collective action and individual-level competition. The author contends cooperation and competition exist in the very nature of things. Organisms function in an ecosystem and to survive and thrive must alternatively engage in cooperation and competition. But competition is more of an exception than a rule. Competition often ends up being a zero-sum game in which the winner takes all. It has a high tendency to lead to cyclical conflict in nature. Therefore, organisms as a rule maximize their survival by engaging in cooperative, not competitive, behavior. Their own needs and desires force them to cooperate to ensure their long-term survival.

In nature, things grow and develop in a process of accretion (“Medemer”) or growth by gradual buildup. Small things add up to become big things. Galaxies, stars and planets are formed from clouds of gas and other small objects stuck to each other that grow bigger and bigger in a gravitational process. Similarly, in human society, hunter gatherers evolved into pastoral societies followed by agricultural, industrial and post-industrial societies through collaborative and cooperative action. Ultimately, survival and success are achieved not on the basis of individual effort but as a result of the collective efforts of many individuals.

On the other hand, organisms are inherently competitive in the struggle for existence. In the non-human animal world, the majority of species live in “societies” (schools of fish, herd of elephants, pride of lions, pack of wolves, etc.) and in associating with each other they find the best strategies in the struggle for life, survival and propagation of the species. The animal species that thrive in individual struggle (bears, platypus, koalas, leopards, etc.) are not as successful as the “social animals”.

The fittest of the species that survives is not necessarily the strongest or the most aggressive but the most cooperative. Those that are the most cooperative and willing to work together define the principle of survival of the fittest by maximizing their chances of survival.

Thus, the foundation for the survival and continuation of any species is mutual aid cooperation (“Medemer”), not cut-throat competition. For instance, insect societies are observed showing perfectly well-organized groups of individuals engaged in peaceful cooperation and helping each other. “Extreme cooperation” is observed among ants, termites, bees and wasps create cooperative colonies with a single reproductive female supported by thousands of non-breeding workers. Extreme destructive competition is rare in nature.

Even at the molecular level, the Medemer analogy holds true. For instance, there are different types of cells in the body, as there are individuals and groups in society (body politic). These cells work “cooperatively” to create particular types of tissues, e.g. bone, muscle, blood, sperm cells. When cells (individuals) fail to cooperate and begin (act) reproduce uncontrollably because of mutation or other factors, they become cancerous and destroy the immune system ultimately killing the organism.

Aristotle wrote, “Man is by nature a social animal.[28] Anyone who either cannot lead the common life or is so self-sufficient as not to need to, and therefore does not partake of society, is either a beast or a god.”

In my analysis, the “Medmer Individual” depicted by the author has attained a certain state of consciousness and realizes the importance of synergistic collaboration for the tasks of nation-building and collective progress. In this sense, Medemer aims to harness the aspirations of individuals and unleash their energies for the collective good. In contrast, the singular pursuit of individual self-interest is ultimately self-defeating. We are involved with each other as individuals. Our destinies are intertwined.

To paraphrase John Dos Passos, “No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the [African] continent, a part of the main [Ethiopia]; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Ethiopia/Africa is the less…

To be continued…. Part II, “The Praxis of Medemer”

END NOTES:

[1] See, “Reflections on Prof. Mesfin’s “Adafne”: Saving Ethiopians From Themselves?”, http://almariam.com/2015/11/01/reflections-on-prof-mesfins-adafne-saving-ethiopians-from-themselves/

[2] This review is entirely my personal and completely independent assessment of the book and does not in any way represent the author’s personal or official positions.

[3] Many of the ideas expressed and discussed in the book by the author simply do not have ready English equivalents. My translation of terms and concepts discussed by the author will likely be lacking. I leave the issue of translational accuracy to the professionals with the requisite linguistic skills and other reviewers and commentators on the book.

[4] Ancient Zulu and Xhosa word which means “humanity to others”); https://help.ubuntu.com/lts/installation-guide/s390x/ch01s01.html

[5] A conventional academic book review provides a descriptive and critical analysis of the work and evaluates the quality and significance. Uses literary and disciplinary standards; evaluates how well the author has succeeded in meeting the objectives of the study, and presents evidence to support this assessment.

[6] https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/abiy-ahmed-meteoric-rise-man-trying-remould-ethiopia-doc-1l81i62

[7] https://www.prio.org/About/PeacePrize/PRIO-Directors-Shortlist-2019/

[8] Available at almariam.com

[9] In the interest of full disclosure, my readers know that I am a staunch supporter of PM Abiy Ahmed. I gave him my full support the day he was appointed Prime Minister. I am proud to say I fully share in his vision, hopes and dreams for Ethiopia; http://almariam.com/2018/04/08/my-personal-letter-to-prime-minister-author-ahmed-of-ethiopia/

[10] See e.g. “Medemer or not Medemer, That is the Question for All Ethiopians!”,  http://almariam.com/2018/08/26/medemer-or-not-medemer-that-is-the-question-for-all-ethiopians/   ;

The Praxis of Medemer in the Horn of Africa, http://almariam.com/2019/03/07/the-praxis-of-medemer-in-the-horn-of-africa/  ; “Medemer in America and Ethiopia: My Personal Tribute to the Life, Achievements and Legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.”, http://almariam.com/2019/01/20/medemer-in-america-and-ethiopia-my-personal-tribute-to-the-life-achievements-and-legacy-of-dr-martin-luther-king-jr/ ; “Ethiopia’s Youth and the Power of Medemer”, http://almariam.com/2018/10/08/author-ahmed-ethiopias-youth-and-the-power-of-medemer/ ; The Power of Medemer and the “Disarming of the Ethiopia Opposition”? http://almariam.com/2019/08/11/raising-the-white-flag-the-power-of-medemer-and-the-disarming-of-the-ethiopia-opposition/

[11] Africans have not had much success generating transformational ideas in Africa. In the post-colonial period, we tried PanAfricanism based on the belief that  Africans in the continent and Africans in the diaspora were bound in a single garment of destiny and must unite to collectively uplift themselves. PanAfricanism died on the vine as Africa fell in the grips of dictatorship. We also tried Negritude (affirmation or consciousness of the value of black or African culture, heritage, and identity) but that idea engaged few outside the African intellectual community. One African country tried the idea of ujamaa (familyhood) to increase self-reliance resulting in a disastrous program of “villagization” and nationalization of businesses and industry. Africans even toyed with the idea of African socialism, trying to Africanize Western socialism with little success. A cabal of junta leaders tried to implement the idea of “military socialism” in Ethiopia in the 1970s resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people through political violence and millions more in famines, depraved indifference and criminal negligence.For the past 27 years, the idea of “revolutionary democracy” was the (dis)order of the day in Ethiopia. That idea proved to be nothing more than an aggregation of inane catch phrases, lamebrained slogans and silly mantras. It became the justification for the greatest rip-off of a nation in the 21st century. In the end, Africa became the battleground for Western ideas of communism, socialism, capitalism and other “isims”.

The results of these mutated ideologies in Africa were revolutionary wars, class wars, ethnic wars, border wars, civil wars, secession wars, Cold War, proxy wars and the rest. These ideologies were based on fundamental principles that I believe were not only incompatible but also destructive of African history, traditions and aspirations. These ideologies posit: 1) There must necessarily be winners and losers in politics. Winner takes all. (For instance, in a given election one party wins 100 percent of the seats in parliament, but no less than 99.6 percent in worst case situations.) 2) Only one party, one leader, one group must be in power to the exclusion of all others and perpetually. 3) Power comes out of the barrel of the gun and is maintained by a vast military, security and police system. 4) The purpose of politics is to seize power, rob the public treasury and cling to power by hook of crook for as long as possible. 5) Negotiations, compromise, mediation, accommodation and conciliation are political weaknesses to be avoided at all costs. 6) Rule of law means law of those who rule at gunpoint, at knife point. 7) The common good, the greater good and the public interest is secondary to the personal/ethnic interests of those in power.

[12] https://allafrica.com/stories/201808200833.html

[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_ZZRjGlRyQ&feature=youtu.be

[14] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_b4FuqSM_c  ; forward clip to 12:50

[15] See presentation of Prof. Dagnachew Assefa at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jCNIFC6sV8&feature=share

[16] https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=Et_a_8nR-v4

[17] https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Jaede.pdf

[18] http://almariam.com/2018/10/08/author-ahmed-ethiopias-youth-and-the-power-of-medemer/

[19] The strand of spider silk that looks like one is actually many thin threads stuck together, thus medemer.

[20] An allegory about a dysfunctional and anarchic society; Book VI of Plato’s Republic; https://www.sparknotes.com/philosophy/republic/section6/

[21] http://almariam.com/2019/01/20/medemer-in-america-and-ethiopia-my-personal-tribute-to-the-life-achievements-and-legacy-of-dr-martin-luther-king-jr/

[22] http://almariam.com/2017/07/02/the-zero-sum-games-of-the-t-tplf-in-ethiopia/

[23] http://almariam.com/2019/10/12/innovating-the-developmental-state-through-homegrown-economic-reform/

[24] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invisiblehand.asp

[25] https://ecadforum.com/blog/revolutionary-democracy-in-ethiopia/ ; “Revolutionary Democracy prioritizes group rights over individual rights, advocates for strong, interventionist government and the presence of a dominant political party that stays in power for a period long enough to facilitate socio-economic transformation. The distinctive attributes of a Liberal Democracy include free and fair elections, economic freedom, genuine separation of the powers of the executive, the legislature and the judiciary, human rights, a multiparty system, the rule of law, freedom of speech, free trade and the protection of private property.”

[26] http://folk.uio.no/daget/neoliberalism.pdf

[27] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-asian-tigers.asp

[28] Aristotle, Politics, Book 1, section 1253a;      http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:abo:tlg,0086,035:1:1253a

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Ethiopia and current campaign against Menilik and Ethiopianism

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D.Sertse Desta

Unambiguously Ethiopian has been mentioned as one of the world most ancient place. In whatever geographical size fluctuation, all Ethiopian state lines bounded the source of the biblical Ghion (The Blue Nile) which is a living testimony that spots Ethiopia from genesis to here. Indeed this current African poor country Ethiopia archived the full span of human history which the modern science too is witnessing. Ethiopia is not only known as origin, but also in times of disasters and wars, in hosting backs its grand children who had gone left long ago out of Africa.  The small mountainous Abyssinia (Ethiopia) was simply a melting pot where the entire world came together and formed the current living mosaic society. Most of us may know only the story of the first Islam follower who headed off Meca to Abyssinia (the land of Habesh) and got a safe niche. Before this event too, various people of different religion had already been living in this country. Judaism perhaps was the most ancient religion in Ethiopia even before the Israelis. Yes ‘Judaism’ might be connected to ‘Judah’ the fourth son of Israel (Jacob). The bible however clearly stated people who had been believing in God of the Heaven even before Abraham who was the father of all. Melchizedeck, the king of righteousness and the Eternal Priest has at least been mentioned as a non Israel origin. I am not saying Melchizedeck was Ethiopian as the likely geography where he met Abraham was away from Ethiopia. But just to indicate people who had been believing in Heavenly God before Israeli. The father-in-law of Moses a reportedly Ethiopian too was a priest. The father-in-law (in Egypt) of Josef (Son of Jacob) also was priest. The ancient Greek historian Diodorus of the Sicily mentioned Ethiopians as the first people who believed in Heavenly God. From these we understand that at least  Judaism like religion likely had long been existed in Ethiopia and the region before Israelis. Ofcourse, it was not a surprise the Israilies continued to have connection with Ethiopia and they too escaped to Ethiopia at their time of war and natural disasters. The bête Israelies in Ethiopia are good still living evidences. Christianity landed to Ethiopia in just at the time of the apostils though it took a while until it became state religion in the 4th century.  Trades and related communications of other people with Ethiopia have been the other historical admixing events to build up more diverse cultured, faith, and genetics background of Ethiopians in particular and the whole Habessha people today in general. That is exactly what the current modern science is witnessing and claiming Ethiopians are just the world harboring the entire genetic breadth of all human races. That is why we say Ethiopia is the  land of the Habesha, the Melting Pot!  Here is the link http://www.cell.com/ajhg/pdf/S0002-9297(12)00271-6.pdf

In this long history, none of the current Ethnic groups were mentioned. No Amhara, no Oromo, no Tigre, none of the current ethnics. Obviously, as part of the society these all had been in Ethiopia until they or others named them with the current names. The outcomes of the genetic analysis in the above link could not differentiate one from the other. Instead it puts all having same genetic background but harboring incredibly diverse genetic origin attesting the aforementioned historical admixture of people in Ethiopia.  Inevitably, cultural, language, communication differences have been realities in Ethiopia as it does in any society. Conflicts can also be nearly inevitable events for various reasons. This has been solid fact almost in all nations. Most of the current nations in the world hosted a gravely devastative conflicts and brutal wars time and again their history. On the other hand, Ethiopia experienced relatively few historical wars within in such long history since ancient times. Instead, as mentioned above it had been a haven for people escaped from wars and various disasters. The ancient Ethiopian rulers seem to be wise and strict with law. That exactly was seen when Ethiopian Christian king hosted the aberrant religion followers (Islam) in those days.  Unfortunately, Ethiopians wisdom and justice went down after power taken off from the Zagwes and then entirely turned into whole mess by local warlords who behaved just like ruthless and hooligans. This created vacuum for people to go apart until the essence of unification came to the mind of Tewodros who himself unfortunately attempted to realize his ambition by blood and iron. Yohanis V continued finally, the Great King Menilik realized with all his extra-ordinary talent.

How Emperor Menilik able to unify Ethiopia?

Being captive, Menilik was raised by Tewodros. Though Tewodros was said to have been such a nasty killer, he never killed those under his arrest. That had been a well established Ethiopian culture that survived even with those all the dark years of the warlords. After all, it appeared that Tewodros raised Menilik in good hands; even finally he gave his daughter to Menilik to be his wife. Menilik was a naturally brilliant and talented person. Tewodros already had realized Menilik would succeed. Although, Tewodros and Menilik share with each other the idea of unification of Ethiopia, they had completely different philosophy. Alike Tewodros, Menilik put war as last option. He also had great sympathy to human sufferings. That exactly was the reason why his people call him ‘Emiye Menilik’ which means ‘Mother Menilik’. They meant he was just like a mother who cares about her children. With his all talents and embracing all people around him, Menilik was ultimately successful in bringing together many of local land lords particularly the Oromos quite friendly. Indeed, Menilik seemingly was inclined in favor of the Oromos. Nearly all his generals and prominent decision makers were Oromos. The Shewa, Gobena was said to have been a friend of Menilik since their childhood. It was not a surprise if Gobena joined Menilik. Gobena certainly was a powerful person in Shewa who even had Challenged Tewodros and Nigus Teklehaymanot of the Gojam. But he did not hesitate to join Menilik. The Boreda Bekere of Wellega was the other partner who joined the Menilik group. Aba Jifar the the Jimma too joined Menilik. These all had understood the intension of Menilik. Menilik had no intension of invasion. His only intension was to bring the long time disintegrated Ethiopian administration into one. Local warlords in the North had no chance than to accept Menilik’s peaceful unification. All those who joined Menilik continued to stay in their power and rule their own people. Yet, Menilik set rule against those who abuse people. His anti slavery rule was the one commonly known. Aba Jifar of the Jimma who had been involved in slave trading was among others who were forced to abandon slave trading. In Menilik’s Empire everybody had the right to live as a human being. That was the great change that librated many who had been in the hands of brutal rulers.  With such talent and humanly move Menilik was successful in bringing together most of Ethiopia in quite short period.

 

 

Menilik wars against local lords

Despite the fact that Menilik tried all his best to negotiate with the local lords peacefully, not all could be willing to join him. As a result wars with these local lords were inevitable. Menilik might face some more minor wars but three wars were solemnly. The war with Kao (King) Tona of the Welaita, the war with Emir Abdulai of Adere at Chelenko, and War with Arsi (Anonymous local warier). The war with Emir Abdulai of the Adere (Hareri) lasted only less than a day. The wars with Tona and Arsi took long time and accordingly damages were high. Both Tona and Arsi were finally defeated. Tona was capture a live after he had been wounded. Menilik treated him and Tona recovered. Finally, Menilik convinced Tona about his intention and returned him back to his power to continue to rule the Welaita people.  It was not clear who led the Arsi war from the local side but Menilik was seriously heartbroken with the lost lives and announced an order against his fighters not to abuse the survivors after the war.

Adwa and Menilk

Soon after his successful unification of Ethiopia from the southern side, the Italian invaders were one of his next challenges. The invaders had already footed in current Eretria earlier.  The entire nation he just built was heart fully and courageously responded to his call to fight against the infiltrating invaders. That might be something unbelievable a just united Ethiopians became more united in response to the alien aggressors. No one could stop that unity and it smashed the modernly quipped Italian war at Adawa. Adawa, was more than a victory in a battle. It rather was a game changer that alerted the long time thought of colonialists as if they were super natural and alerted all under colonialist’s repression. Adawa signaled the possibilities of centuries years old impossible! Yet, the Ethiopians under the leadership of Menilik would have succeeded to the invaders doc at Messawa.  More sadly however, the wide range a ravaging famine  in  those days was major challenge. Menilik had to responsibly decide safe his people(fighters)  who were with no remaining food in their hands.  Many may think that Adawa was simply Ethiopians and the Italian invaders war. But the famine was also a natural disaster which was in favor of the invaders. Still there also were ‘Bandas’ serving the invaders. Adawa was realized in all these challenges.

Menilik and Modernizations

After Adawa, Menilik turned his eyes on modernization for lack which he remorse much his country and his people were suffering from numerous natural and artificial disasters. Menilik introduced all technologies on earth of that date to Ethiopia. Count all technologies and modern traditions surviving in so called current Ethiopia, all except internet and plane were his legacies. Internet and planes were not on earth. Plane was just a discovery in 1903. Menilik even was an extra ordinary person to break long time deep rooted ill tradition against technology. The priests from Ethiopian Orthodox church were among his confronters in his pace to prosper Ethiopia.   Menilik did not live that longer to perform all these in a single person lifespan. His lived only 69 years and reined Ethiopia for only 17-18 years in his full leadership and may be then extra 6-7 years unwell.  Menilik, apparently, might be one of the few extra ordinary persons  in last millennium? I am not historian, one may list one or two. I hardly think more.

How Menilik could be that much successful

Luckily, Menilik was joined by many other brilliant, humanly, and determined people.  The Meniliks rein primarily recruited leaders from Oromo people. Including his own wife Tayitu, others like Fitawurary Habtegeorgis Denegde were only to mention few the lead role players in Meniliks rein. All, including local administrators (rases and niguses) were actively participating and had strong bond with the Menilik central leadership despite the fact that the poor system of the date to coordinate. His, administration was a form federal system that the local leaders lead their community but they were monitored by the central administration to not let them abuse the people. Ethiopians in Ethiopia under the rule of Menilik indeed had true citizenship right. The poor had options to appeal to the emperor. ‘deha ayibedl’ was the moto in Menilik’s leadership. As stated above many societies were librated from rampant slavery of the time.   That was little to mention the reason behind why people call the emperor ‘Emiye Menilik’.  Menilike was not only joined by the brilliant elite leaders, but also by his entire people. That enabled him to fetch all those successful stories.

Why weyanes its allies targeted the famous world leader Menilik?

The weyanies and their allies obviously had to target Menilik who truly united all Ethiopians together. Otherwise, the weyanies would have not survived for few months let alone for 26 years here now. The strong bond that Menilik built up among Ethiopians and Ethiopianism has been a problem for those who want to infamously penetrate to Ethiopia.  The weyanies, shabia groups had long before understood the only way they could get chance in Ethiopia was by spoiling the history of Menilik and deceiving others with false stories especially the Oromos who had a very strong tie with Menilik. Weyanies infiltrated into the Ethiopians by large and Oromos in particular with systemic poison that completely detached the current generation especially the Qube oromo generation from their heroic forefathers who were successfully led Ethiopia with Menilik. The waynes don’t want the Oromos to be quoted as a lead role player in the most successful Menilik rein. Obviously, if Oromos realized the successful history of Menilik indeed was the history of their fore fathers, let alone the weyane group that came from far north Dedebit, Tigray, no one would able to rule without the will of Oromos and the surrounding people in Addis which is the center of this community.  It was not that serious but Hailesilasse too attempted to distance the Oromos from being aware of the real history of Menilik, which over  80% the oromos played the role and the reason why Menilik decided to hand over his throne to his Oromo grandson, Iyasu. Menilik had planned to hand over his power to the grandson of his friend Gobena which unfortunately was not successful for a reason. This strong evidence of the bond between the Oromos and Menilik has always been seen as a threat by Ethiopian rulers then after except the derg which reined all through out in mess but with good reputation of the Menilik history. The weyanes were successful in wiping out of Menilik’s true history from the minds of the Qube Oromo generation which is currently maneuvered in ridiculous way by the weyanes. Not only distracted the Menilik history which undeniably  was the history of Oromos leadership, weyanes apparently able to let the Qube minds to think the history of Menilik as if it were history of their enemy. The weyane served the Qube Oromo minds with factious fake versions. Most current Qube generation read the weyane sponsored Tesfay Gebere Ab’s ‘Yeburkawe Zimita’; ‘Yejemila Enat’ and so on. The wayanes were ofcourse accompanied by ethnic Oromo elites who want to live for their own personal interest at the expense of the big Oromos. Let alone an Oromo and/or non who speak Afan Oromo, the Quebe generation can easily be idioticed and surrender to anybody who pretend to be Oromo and tell that Oromos have been repressed and your enemies are neftegna(Amhara). That is what the qube mind want to hear and have been made for. That exactly is a strategy to let Oromos believe that they have been powerless, unintelligent in history and to let them accept their incapability for power what so ever they outnumber. This is the mission of those campaigning against the outshining Oromo dominated Menilik leadership history. The truth, all the successes of Menilik were due to leadership performance of Oromo forefathers!

Thank you!

 

እግዚአብሔር ማስተዋሉን ይስጠን!

 

ልዑል እግዚአብሔር ኢትዮጵያንና ሕዝቦቿን ይጠብቅ

 

ሰርጸ ደስታ

 

 

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Ethnic Amharas  in Oromiya Regional State at Risk of Genocide  

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(By Meskerem Abera)

The incumbent government ruling over Ethiopia is headed by an Oromo prime minister, Abiye Ahmed ,who won Nobel Peace prisze of 2019. The coming in to power of this Oromo prime minister is the aftermath of the mass resentment done against brutal and corrupted rule of Tigrian minority ganga under the leadership of TPLF(Tigrian Peoples Liberation Front).The mass resentment had been mainly launched  by Ethnic Oromo and Amhara youths and politicians who assumed that they  were overruled and marginalized  by Tigrian minority rule for nearly quarter a century.

Soon after the downfall of TPLF, the Oromo nationalist who had converged with Amharas to fail TPLF started to divided  in two camps. The first camp wishes to supplant Oromo dominance in the place of Tigrian dominance and do not want to see ethnic Amhara officials’ visibility at the federal level of government. This camp of Oromo nationalism, Championed by Jawar Mohammod, allude Amharas as old oppressors of Oromos who imposed Ethiopia on Oromos and consider Amharas as enemy number one of Oromos, even more foe than TPLF. This camp of Oromo nationalism holds sizable amount of Diaspora Oromo intellectuals, activists and Oromo Youth at home.

The second camp of Ormomo nationalism is headed by the incumbent prime minister Abiye Ahmed who is trying to  forge the Oromo-Amhara alliance and consider this alliance as a bedrock to  the furtherance of Ethiopian statehood. This camp is nascent version of ormomo nationalism which do not backed by many Oromos except meager number of Oromos most of which are members of ODP.

The first camp of Oromo nationalism championed by Jawar Mohammod, Ethiopian born strident Oromo nationalist holding American passport, are castigating  their co-ethnic prime minister Abiye Ahmed as disciple of Amharas, assume power to execute the political agenda of Amharas and wish to be surrounded by Amharas at the federal level of government. Hence, this camp assumes Amharas are usurpers of the revolt dominantly accomplished by Oromos; prominent personalities of this camp officially declare this through Oromo media outlets.

Such caustic propaganda  of strident Oromo nationalists  drag the Oromo youth away from the centerist political path of Abiye Ahmed and push in to fanatic Oromom nationalism which usually is manifested by killing Amharas living in Oromiya region. Even worse, strident Oromo nationalists lead by Ethiopian born American citizen Jawar Mohammod, refer Amharas living in Oromia as settler colonialists who came to Oromia so as to exploit Oromos and the resource of Oromiya. In the same token, Ethnic Gamos peopled in Oromiya region are recently labeled as settlers who came to exploit Oromiya and became victims of xenophobia. Such xenophobic sentiment of Oromos recently sharpened and deepened to take religious character of attacking all Christians considering Christian is tantamount to Amhara.

The cumulative effect of all these virulent propaganda put the life of Amharas living in Oromoiya region of highest risk that might develop in  to open ethnic cleansing and  genocide. What makes the condition more scary is the security apparatus of Oromiya region such as the special police force of Oromiya shares this sentiment of considering Amharas as colonizers and old oppressors that need to be cleaned from Oromiya. Hence, the security apparatus of  Oromomiya region has been observed backing with fanatic and violent Oromo youth nationalist by action or inaction to attack Amharas. The action is by collaborating Oromo nationalist youth in attacking Amharas and the inaction is looking Indifferently while Amharas are killed and their belongings are burnet by Oromo nationalists. Let alone ordinary security officials, the head of Oromiya regional state, Shemeles Abdissa, is not immuned from the archaic  sentiment of considering Amharas as enemy number one of Oromos; he publicly announced that Amharas are now broken by Oromos and he reiterate loud as he is proud of Oromos who broke the spine of Amharas.

The international community, human right organizations and every single advocate of human rights need to be aware of such ripe hovering condition of Genocide against Amharas living in Oromiya region. It has been long since every instability developed in Oromia region start to harm the Amahras  right to live in Oromiya region. At this moment due to the disarray created in Oromiya region by the cause to which Amharas have no part, Amharas are being killed, robbed and their houses are burnt. Oromo government officials who are indifferent to the plight of Amhara peoples under their realm tend to whitewash the genocide condition as a mere discord. They do not want to call the problem by its right name, genocide risk against Amharas. This does not change the reality.

Overlooking or underestimating  the nascent condition of genocide will make the problem more complicated and the way of reversing it difficult. This is what has happened in Rwanda. At the very beginning  of the infamous Rwanda genocide, the International community had confused the   burgeoning genocide conditions with the then civil war and considered the genocide as mere part of the civil war.

This knowing or unknowing indifference of the international community resulted the elimination of nearly half a million innocent Tutsis and what the international community had to say was the slogan “Never Again” which is by far disproportionate to the grave mistake done and the shameful scare stamped on the history of mankind. Still, if the slogan “Never Again” is serious, the international community need to keep  its eyes on Oromiya region in which genocide is simmering.

The post Ethnic Amharas  in Oromiya Regional State at Risk of Genocide   appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News: Your right to know!.

“Medemer” by Abiy Ahmed, Ph.D., An Interpretive Book Review, (Part II)- Working Through Political Entropy in Ethiopia With Medemer

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

“Medemer” (original in Amharic), Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia and Nobel Peace Laureate 2019, 280 pp. (October 2019)

Reviewer’s Note:

Part I of my book review on the “philosophy” of Medemer appeared in my October 20,  2019 commentary

My review of “Medemer” is intended for the benefit and convenience of English-speaking audiences who have a sincere desire to understand and rigorously critique “Medemer” philosophy for what it is and is not. I present my personal reflections and perspectives on Medemer philosophy or idea and invite others to review the book and thoughtfully discuss its usefulness and relevance to Ethiopia.

In Part II, I discuss the author’s Medemer praxis  in a variety of areas. In a postscript, I shall argue medemer philosophy/praxis is the antidote to political, informational and economic entropy in Ethiopia.

Praxis of Medemer

Medmer is part philosophy/theory and part praxis and as such contains a set of actionable measures and policy prescriptions.

I have previously written on the praxis of Medemer in the context of the distressing, tragic and often aggravating politics of the Horn of Africa and the application of Medemer principles to conflict resolution there.[1] I argued, “What happens in each Horn country affects the others. War in one country threatens the peace in the other. Peace and democracy in one country becomes an example of good governance for others. Regional integration is another phrase for ‘Medemer’.”

Indeed, in a recent speech[2] marking a breakthrough in the Sudan negotiations which resulted in power sharing between the military and civilians, the author explained “the people of Sudan have done well in choosing cooperation over competition which is essential to our collective survival”. He said, the Horn region must “act in synergy” and Medemer becomes a “yarn weaving us together collectively” and help us achieve “collectively what we can only imagine individually”.

In the second part of the book, the author explains the mechanics and application of Medemer  to a whole host of issues and problems facing Ethiopia. His analysis begins with a discussion of “two types of oppression”, man-made and other structural. He argues oppression  results when governments are unable or unwilling to meet their people’s expectations and demands.

“Man-made oppression” is forged in the minds of people who lack a moral compass and are stone deaf to the voice of their own consciences. They are depravedly indifferent to the suffering of people starving, in poverty or facing abuse and mistreatment. Their sole concern and preoccupation is keeping themselves in power with the barrel of the gun or the power of the almighty birr (dollar). Their guiding philosophy is “might makes right”  and “get your money and run.”

“Structural oppression” involves the concerted actions of organized groups within society. The author discusses nine typologies of structural oppression ranging from gender to regime.

The author attributes the persistence of oppression in considerable part to the failure of Ethiopian intellectuals. They generally tend to be narrow-minded, incredibly naïve and misguided because they believe they can implement ideas they have read in books or figments of their imagination. They rarely do strategic planning to implement their ideas into action. They are afflicted by indolence, negligence and indifference. They are impetuous and often prone to emotional reactions casting intellectual rigor to the wind.  In sum, Ethiopia sorely lacks grounded and matured intellectuals.  The author argues the failure of Ethiopian intellectuals to articulate alternate visions, silence in the face of wrongs, complicity with brutal and corrupt regimes and ineffective leadership styles have contributed to the systemic failure of governance and persistence of oppression.

The author’s answer to dealing with oppression in Ethiopia is establishing genuine multiparty democracy, and he explores various “ways” of doing just that. He argues the essence of democracy is to create a government based on consent and legitimacy. Past experiments trying to establish democracy in Ethiopia based on class struggle, identity politics, the right of secession, etc. have failed. That failure is tied partly to intentional efforts by leaders to prevent the rise of a democratic civic culture and institutions.

The author discusses the principles of direct and representative democracy and their respective (dis)advantages. He explores the distinctions between the trustee (representatives that have sufficient autonomy to deliberate and act in favor of the greater common good and the national interest” and “delegate” models of representation (delegates act only as directed representatives of their  constituency with little autonomy”.

The author’s prescription for Ethiopia is a democracy based on “civic nationalism” (reviewer’s translation; an inclusive consensus-based nationalism that thrives on the values of freedom, tolerance, equality, individual rights, etc.) Democracy based on “group rights” is flawed and ineffective. However, the author underscores the singular importance of maintaining diversity in Ethiopian society and respect for cultural, religious and linguistic integrity and protections. Groups should be free to practice their faiths, use their languages in instruction and exercise their cultural practices.

The author discusses the origins and evolution of ethnonationalism and the politics of “nations, nationalities and peoples” in Ethiopia. He argues the politics of ethnic identity, communalism, sectarianism, etc., have led to conflict, strife and war. They have no place in a 21st century Ethiopia.

The author does not see insurmountable problems in reconciling civic nationalism with group rights. Indeed, he believes by creating a consensus/civic-nationalism based democracy it is possible to maximize both individual liberties and group rights to cultural, linguistic and religious autonomy.

Medemer provides the philosophical foundation to build a consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy by creating structures and processes that seek to correct past mistakes, build on existing positive accomplishments and generating innovative new ideas for the future. The author suggests much can be learned from Tunisia’s experience in “civic nationalism”[3] which has contributed significantly to the emergence of a stable multiparty democracy.

The author’s prescription for the practical realization of consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy is pursuit of national reconciliation and development of national understanding on critical issues that are important to the majority of the people in Ethiopia. In the past, national reconciliation has been difficult for various reasons including the shrill exhortations of leaders and activists who seek to maintain the status quo of division and antagonisms for personal political or economic gain.

The author is firmly committed to the pursuit of a process of national reconciliation and goes into the details of how that can be achieved. He also explains how a culture of recrimination has undermined the emergence of such a process. He argues the starting point for a consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy in Ethiopia is the building of a long-term political culture and system based on consent, civic engagement, inclusiveness, accountability, transparency, etc. This requires setting up new, independent and viable civic institutions and practices that promote civility, tolerance, rule of law, accountability, transparency, etc. Existing institutions could also be enhanced and improved.

The current system of nepotism and crony capitalism in Ethiopia must be replaced by institutions that ensure equal opportunity for all. The system and structure of patrimonialism (power flows directly from the leader) and neopatrimonialism (use of state resources in order to secure the loyalty of clients in the general population) must be uprooted and replaced by systems, institutions and processes that are founded on economic and social justice.

The author proposes Ethiopians use their commonly shared values that have been the bedrock of their common heritage to develop consensus. Ethiopians have lived in peace and harmony for much of their history. They have shed their blood together against foreign aggression time and again as one people. They share deeply-rooted faith, cultural and family ties.

However, as a preliminary step to developing national consensus, the politics of stagnation (reviewer’s translation; those resistant to change or do not change with change, “sticks in the mud”) and the defeatist malaise that has pervaded Ethiopian society over the past decades must be transformed by a dynamic medemer politics where all have an equal opportunity to engage and contribute. No man, woman or child will be left behind.

The author argues creating strong institutions to support a democratic structure and process  requires significant reforms to existing institutions. The bureaucracy and civil service institutions require major overhaul and professionalization. The bureaucratic culture of  malingering,  indifference to public concerns and needs, the lack of skills and professional capacity, improper political interference and lack of capacity political interference need to be addressed swiftly.

In Ethiopia’s new consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy, there must be a shift from “ruling” (by force, (neo)patrimonialism) to leadership by consent, legitimacy and moral authority. There are many leadership challenges in Ethiopia. Political leaders in the past have failed to forge common goals to focus the people’s energies and attention. Leaders have lacked a broader vision for the society and instead have tried to promote their own self-interests. They have lacked popular support, good will and legitimacy. They do not have moral/social capital or broad popular acceptance. They tend to respond with emotionalism instead of considered judgment. They have little understanding of the public mood and sentiments. They lack self-control.

To have an effective democratic transition, Ethiopians need to adopt affirmative and positive values such as self-initiative, self-awareness, global thinking, ethical behavior (goodness), pursuit of happiness without infringing on the rights of others, goodwill, security, decency, service volunteerism and so on.

The author argues the command economy of the past has failed and the time is ripe to follow free market principles. The role of government in the economy should be limited to encouraging the expansion of the private sector, attracting and supporting  private investment and intervening strategically to strengthen, regulate and create markets. The problem in the past has been excessive state intervention in certain areas and indifference in others. The state should play a decisive role in policy selection, improving the regulatory environment, monetary and fiscal policy.

The author spends a great deal of time discussing Ethiopia’s economic problems and ways of addressing them. He has serious misgivings about the economic legacy of the past quarter century. While Ethiopia has made significant economic gains, the author laments the fact that the price for those gains has been massive debt, runaway government spending, abuse, waste and corruption in the use of public funds. The author recognizes the reality that Ethiopia’s economy is not built on creating opportunities for ordinary people. The massive inequality and maldistribution of wealth inequality, lack of economic justice, rise in the cost of living, etc., in society have roots in an economy based on crony capitalism which only gives lip service to the interests of ordinary people.

The author acknowledges the debt-based economic development has helped a few in particular sectors of the economy. While clients of previous regime have experienced extraordinary improvements in their standard of living, the vast majority of Ethiopians remain in abject poverty. There is massive youth unemployment. Fiscal policy to increase government revenue has not generated sufficient tax revenues. Domestic savings and investments are low and as a result Ethiopia has to depend on foreign sources to cover its balance of payment and foreign exchange deficits. Due to chronic shortages of foreign exchange, Ethiopia is unable to import light industry and mechanize its agricultural sector and basic necessities have to be imported.

The author identifies various reasons for the country’s economic problems. Among these are lack of economic process, a stagnant private sector, lack of coordination between economic actors, lack of markets and good governance, structural obstacles to creating wealth and inability of individuals and groups to effectively participate in the market, lack of knowledge and trust, absence of a level playing field and formal and informal monopoly of markets.

The author perceives a very weak (broken) economic structure in Ethiopia.  Though market and governance deficiencies are critical problems, the main economic culprit fingered is deficiency of process/system (sirat) which incorporates key economic actors, lack of knowledge and confidence in the market economy. The market deficiency is manifest in a variety of ways: imbalances in supply and demand, lack of market information, absence of effective regulatory scheme to prevent concentration of economic power in few hands, a very weak private sector and so on.

The author’s prescription to overcome these problems is to enhance and strengthen the private sector by strategic and limited government intervention. Government can play many critical roles in the economy, e.g. building educational and technological infrastructure, expanding logistics, improvements in the bureaucracy, funding research and development, strengthening accountability structures and transparency processes. Government can correct distortions in the economy through regulation, strategic intervention, fiscal and monetary policy. In the past, there has been too much government interference which has stifled private entrepreneurship. There has been lack of constructive engagement of the private sector, government negligence, incompetence and indifference in various aspects of the economy and lack of good monetary and fiscal policy.

The author argues one of the major areas of economic failure has been management of public development projects which have been plagued by corruption, mismanagement, lack of accountability and transparency. Enhancing and strengthening the administrative structure of public projects is vital. Other problems include crony capitalism, fraud, waste and abuse of resources, lack of systems and processes and coordination of economic and political institutions.

The current  development model must be changed. Manifestly, that is a change from the so-called “developmental state” model led by the state which has created a massive kleptocracy to a medemer economy where the economic rules of the game are fair, transparent and supportive of private entrepreneurship. Ethiopia can no longer afford to pursue old economic theories in an era of globalization and a world economy that is knowledge- and technologically-based. He emphasizes the role of education in general and gives special attention to higher education to drive Ethiopia’s economy. He perceives the lack of technical and technology-based education as one of the major obstacles to economic success. The economy does not create or support technological innovations and technical education in the country is at the lowest level.

The author argues civil society institutions play critical role in the economy and society. There are over three thousand NGOs in the country that can help balance the government and private sectors. Special attention must be  given to the role of youth in the economy in light of the fact that over 70 percent of the population (youth bulge) is under 35 years of age and a much higher percentage live in non-urban areas. He sees a central role for the young small holder farmers. He argues there is much potential economic power in this population. At the core of the economic problems of the country is the inability to provide employment to rural youth who end up migrating to urban areas in search of opportunity.

The author is optimistic Ethiopia can overcome its enormous economic problems if the people practice medemer philosophy and work together in common cause and purpose. Ethiopia has enormous natural resources though they are not developed. Ethiopia has gold, platinum, nickel, copper, gypsum oil and gas which could be responsibly produced. It has substantial livestock population and vast potential for fisheries industry. Ethiopian can become a breadbasket for the rest of Africa given its weather and natural terrain.

Ethiopia has the potential for economic leapfrogging through technology and mechanization. Priority should be given to mechanizing agriculture and improving farming techniques. Industrialization which is now concentrated in the outskirts of urban areas needs to be spread out more evenly.

In the last part of the book, the author addresses medemer principles of foreign policy. He notes the rise of nationalism globally and spread of radical right movements. He discusses the political gains such groups have made in Western countries and the anti-immigrant sentiments feeding the nationalist backlash. He perceives the rise of nationalism as episodic and not as a fundamental shift or political realignment. He believes the world is moving in the direction of medemer and not fragmentation. Globalization and information technology have created a global village. Returning to the old tribal village by retreating to racial, ethnic, identity, ideological and religious is not practical in the 21st century.

In the field of international relations, the author argues Ethiopia should follow a foreign policy based on medemer principles which include competition and cooperation. He believes building relationships based on trust and mutuality of interests is far more effective than zero sum competition. Ethiopia will take the approach of working collectively with neighbors on common issues over which there is consensus and build trust and understanding to work on other issues. Common issues include peace and regional security. He identifies problems of Ethiopian refuges, exiles and migrant workers and the suffering and challenges they face. The government must take measures to ensure they are treated with dignity and justice.

In the last couple of pages of the book, the author speaks passionately about the role of the diaspora in shaping Ethiopia’s destiny and in citizen diplomacy in their host countries. He sees many roles for diaspora Ethiopians in promoting investments and tourism, channeling remittances through established banking services to increase the country’s foreign exchange reserves and in changing the image of Ethiopia.

Medemer offers thought provoking and compelling arguments and analysis to reimagine and even reengineer Ethiopian politics and economics based on synergy, consensus and cooperation. I suspect those who have find themselves trapped in a time warp of socialist, revolutionary democracy and developmental state ideologies are likely to find the ideas in the book maddening. Those who are not willing to take the time and digest the author’s analysis will latch on a word or phrase and spin it to discredit the ideas. Those who read the book with closed minds and visceral opposition to the author’s political leadership will find the book challenging and thought-provoking. Those who read it with an open mind will find much that is inspiring, compelling and intellectually rewarding.

I have found compelling arguments and analysis in “Medemer”. In future commentaries, I hope to explore specific aspects of medemer philosophy and engage those ready, willing, able in discussions and debates.

POSTSCRIPT: Medemer as the antidote to political, informational and economic entropy in Ethiopia

Entropy (“law of disorder”) is a term in physics (thermodynamics) used to describe/measure molecular disorder or randomness of a system. In nature (universe), there is always a “struggle” between order and disorder.

In Ethiopia today, the Lords of Entropy and Agents of Disorder (The LEAD) are working 24/7  to create chaos, discord, anarchy and lawlessness. They jockey with each other to unleash death, destruction, alarm, fear and loathing.

There are the political LEAD  

The LEAD who were kicked out on their tails after 27 years of operating a barefaced  kleptocracy are licking their wounds to their pride and hanging out in hotels and bars boozed, buzzed and defanged. They spend their stolen billions paying off unemployed youths to engage in ethnic violence and destabilizing criminal activity.

There are the LEAD who are activists-cum-terrorists instigating violence and lawlessness. They use social media to recruit virtual suicide bombers and the conventional media to organize a ragtag thug army.

There are the faceless and nameless invisible LEAD who hide in the bureaucracy and government offices resisting any and all reforms and punishing the public by unleashing hardship and inconvenience.

There are the Chicken Little LEAD who spread rumor and gossip because they believe the sky is falling down their heads.

There are the digital/information LEAD.

These are the social media nitwits and ignoramus LEAD who live in Fakebook, NiTwitterdom and propagate numbing videos of lies, disinformation and hate.

There are social media thug LEAD who call themselves “digital this or that” and coordinate campaigns of lies and disinformation to cause conflict and strife so that their bosses could return to power. (That will happen when hell freezes over and the Prince of Darkness and his lackey demons go ice skating.)

There are the YouTube click bait LEAD who traffic in bad and fake news to score a few pennies from Google. They sensationalize and exaggerate news to terrorize, spread panic, alarm, anxiety, and fears among those who are not internet savvy.

There are the empty barrel, clueless pseudo-intellectual LEAD with the brain power of jellyfish that appear as talking heads on YouTube and such and barf words of hate and division.

The digital LEAD think political power grows out the web pages of Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

They have neither the capacity nor will to engage in organized political competition or battle of ideas. They hope to exploit the ignorance of the masses with belligerent megalomaniacal words of hate, war and rumors of war.

The unvarnished truth is that the LEAD are a cancer on the Ethiopian body politic. They are  losers in their personal, professional, political and social lives. Having thoroughly messed up their lives, now they want to mess up everybody else’s. They want to drag down everyone into their miserable world of endless gloom and doom. Losers always lose and the LEAD will lose everything.

But there is no need to fear the LEAD. They are all paper tigers, daylight hyenas, barking dogs and crybabies.

They become empowered when we give them attention and show fear.

The LEAD will lead Ethiopia down a path of division and destruction.

But we must always be mindful of this fact: The disorder created by few should be a good reminder to the many what the alternatives are.

In the absence of medemer, the inmates will take over the mental asylum.

Let there be no doubt: Medemer forces will create order regardless of how much the Forces of LEAD try to create disorder.

Medemer is a philosophy for winners.

Medemer is a labor of love. It creates order out of disorder. It brings unity out of division. It is a healing balm on the festering wounds of hate, division and distrust.

Medemer is about hope and confidence in a better future, a brave new Ethiopia.

Medemer is about peace. By practicing medemer philosophy, Abiy Ahmed has won the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2019.  

Medemer is about love, forgiveness and reconciliation.

Medemer is about creating a new national political architecture founded on consensus based civic nationalism and multiparty democracy.

Medemer is in Ethiopia to stay because the alternative is to be enslaved by the LEAD. 

I have made many prophesies over the years that have come to pass.

Here is my prophesy for all LEAD in and out of Ethiopia: “Their sword shall enter into their own hearts, and their bows shall be broken.”

The Lords of Entropy and Agents of Disorder in Ethiopia will be defeated with Medemer philosophy in the final battle of ideas, in the final battle for the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people!

MEDEMER MESSAGE TO LEAD:

GIVE IT UP.

RESISTANCE  TO MEDEMER IS FUTILE!

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[1] http://almariam.com/2019/03/07/the-praxis-of-medemer-in-the-horn-of-africa/

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_ZZRjGlRyQ&feature=youtu.be

[3] See, e.g. Veronica Baker, “For a state to maintain its democratic status and protect against despotism requires citizens to embrace civic values (the elements of civic culture that train citizens in activism, reason, and engagement) that help them shape their own political lives. The resultant civil society is a natural extension of these individual-held values, expressed collectively to achieve community goals.” https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2212&context=honr_theses

The post “Medemer” by Abiy Ahmed, Ph.D., An Interpretive Book Review, (Part II)- Working Through Political Entropy in Ethiopia With Medemer appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.


Violent Extremism and the Warning Signs of Civil War Ethiopia Today

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By  Dawit Wolde Giorgis

A year ago, the people of Ethiopia ecstatically welcomed PM Abiy Ahmed and his colleague Lemma Megersa as peacemakers, unifiers and reformers introducing Ethiopia to a new era of national unity.  He quickly opened up the political space, released prisoners, and made peace with neighboring Eritrea.  However, that euphoric sentiment is now changing to fear and uncertainty largely due to the ethnic conflicts consuming the country.

Most Ethiopians hoped that Ethiopia could make a peaceful transition under the leadership of Ably and Lemma, and the people supported the two leaders wholeheartedly despite Ethiopians’ misgivings about Abiy’s and Lemma’s past involvement in the brutal security apparatus of the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Force (EPRDF).

He still speaks of a peaceful prosperous united Ethiopia with half the population unemployed and ethnic hostility reaching a critical level. People are being slaughtered like animals. Churches are being burnt. Christians are being persecuted. The age old Coptic Church, which has existed and flourished in Ethiopia since the birth of Christ, is now under siege, publicly condemned and publicly declared as a target of the Oromo extremists. Many Coptic churches have been burnt and some asked to leave some areas.

Oromo extremists wanted to show the supremacy of their tribe in the most brutal way reminiscent of the Rwanda genocide. And yet the prime minister did not have the will or the desire to quell the anarchy and bring to justice those who have committed such crimes.  There are as many and perhaps more  political prisoners in the cells across the country than the numbers of prisoners he released when he came to power two years ago. Public meetings and demonstrations are banned for all except for the Oromo ethnic group. Freedom of speech and expression has been curtailed significantly. Arbitrary arrest and detention by government forces has become routine. Non-Oromos across the country live in fear and most have left their rural homes and descended upon the urban areas where they felt they would get protection. But in some of the major cities they are being hunted, imprisoned, harassed and their houses burnt.

PM Ably is no more seen by many as the charming leader and uniting force people have believed he was at the beginning of his tenure. His speeches and particularly the one he made at his first year anniversary of his ascension to power has become a turning point in the optimism people had on PM Ably. He came out as a brutal leader prepared to stifle freedom of expression and dissent. He ranted about the need to control freedom of expression and closing social media. He did not seem to like the criticism directed at him and his polices. Since then he has come out clearly supporting the extreme elements that are creating havoc in Addis and in  every region in Ethiopia.

The Nobel Prize seems to have emboldened his determination to continue giving the image of a peacemaker while pursuing a policy that makes it possible to put his tribe in absolute control of every aspect of life in Ethiopia and  eliminate any resistance through his ruthless rogue forces one of which is led by a man called Jawar Mohamed, the CEO of OMN, a media out let which preaches hate and supremacy of Oromos and violent Muslim extremism.

 

Jawar Mohamed ,CEO of Oromo Media Network (OMN)

Last April I wrote: “Jawar is an ethnic and religious extreme. He has been caught on tape telling his crowd that he will cut off the heads of Christians. Like the ‘interhamway’ of Rwanda Jawar has recruited young Oromos who call themselves “ keros’ to do the dirty work of killing plundering and creating an atmosphere of fear in the nation.

One writer, Mekuria, writes:  “ It was alarming to see how these youngsters, once thought as intelligent and self controlled were in reality so haplessly uninformed that they showed up in full force to do the bidding of their handlers no questions asked. The image of Kero youngsters brandishing machetes and other homemade weapons was a pitiful sight to see. It reminds me more of the notorious Boko Haram about whom I have written a lot, than the peaceful youngsters with their arms crossed over their heads in protest. That Ethiopians had come to love and appreciate. Kero youngsters are Ethiopians who desire better than being reduced to doing the dirty work of others and getting tarnished in the process. They have camp Jawar to thank for it “ (ECDF)

This month Jawar made up an excuse of being threatened by government security  and mobilized his Kero forces who murdered 78 people,  burnt houses,  established road blocks in several places in the city of Addis Abeba, robbed people and for a few days paralyzed the nation, and yet the Prime Minster personally had nothing meaningful to say about this extraordinary incident except a hollow statement issued by his office. He never stated that criminals will be brought to justice nor did he utter the name Jawar nor his organization. This is an indication that either he is collaborating with the extremist Jawar or is simply incompetent to lead this country to peace and democracy.  It is truly remarkable that the head of state should behave in such a way when the very survival of this nation has become a big question mark.

I laud the courage of the President, Sahle Work  Zewde,  who stated publicly:

“ A red line that we have to draw and respect for the sake of our country and people has been crossed; we all have a role to play to rescue our country from the danger that it is facing. All concerned have to do their part. Let us say a red line should not be crossed” ( Translation from Amharic by Borkena)

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has issued a stern statement calling for the Ethiopian government to hold all those responsible for the brutal and shocking killings of innocent citizens (Borkena)

 

Failed State

With the unfolding situation,  Ethiopia has definitely become a failed state. The new index will reflecting current situation  will show up next year since the fragile state index is an annual ranking of 178 countries. It is still in the group of 22 failed countries in the world. It certainly improved after the release of prisoners and the sense of stability that was created immediately after PM Abiy came to power. But that has changed now.  (Read my last article A Country on the Brinks, April 8, 2019 ). Weak and fragile states are fertile grounds for violence and extremism.  “A State’s failure to provide basic rights, services and security not only contributes to growing inequality, it also creates a vacuum that allows non-state actors to take control over State sovereignty and territory. There is a risk that failed political transitions, with weak institutions, law enforcement and checks and balances provide a fertile ground for violent extremism. Weak States thus create opportunities for the physical location of extremist groups.” ( UNDP, Preventing Violent Extremism)

As I stated in my earlier article a failed state includes:

  • Lack of control over armed forces, militias, etc. within the country
  • Lack of free participation in politics

.     Lack of control over territory within national borders

  • Massive displacements
  • Failure to provide public services food health shelter etc.…
  • High level of corruption in whatever government does
  • High numbers of refugees seeking to leave
  • No or poorly functioning economy

Today Ethiopia almost  all the above. The most critical is human security. States fail because they can no longer provide security to the people.  When a state  fails to  provide security it  loses its  legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Millions of Ethiopians  have now started taking necessary steps individually or in groups, including taking the law into their hands. Robbery, including bank robberies, gruesome murder, torture has become so prevalent that media outlets have stopped even reporting unless it is a little different from what is routinely taking place in many parts of Ethiopia.  The government is bankrupt and is unable to provide basic services.  Inflation and unemployment is at its highest in the nations history.  Extreme poverty has driven people to join criminal gangs and violent extremists.

Under these situations, other internal and external interest groups take advantage of the vulnerability of the population and create the conditions of wide spread violence through the supply of armaments money and the radicalization of vulnerable groups. The competition for scarce resources, the lack of security and absence of law and order has created a vacuum of leadership at local and village levels. This vacuum  is being filled by ethnic war lords and criminal gangs easily bought and sold by money some of which is being pumped into Ethiopia by foreign extremist elements. It is to be remembered that the government itself admitted that ISIS is operating in Ethiopia and some people have already been caught with incriminating materials.

Djibouti is emerging as the new regional arms trafficking hub. The small strategically located state acts as a transit location for weapons trafficking between Yemen and northern Somalia through the AMISOM mission among other actors in the trade. The findings are the result of an investigation carried out by EXX Africa (specialist intelligence company that delivers forecasts on African political and economic risk to businesses) in illegal weapons trade in the Horn of Africa. There is equally disturbing weapons smuggling activities across the borders with Sudan as evidenced by reports of the government of Ethiopia

 

Violent Extremism

The complex security situation in the Horn of Africa and the coastal states  of the Red Sea cannot be defined only by its strategic and geographic location. It is also defined by the resurgence of violent extremism   and other kinds of conflicts, which have complicated the already complex situation in the Horn.  The resurgence of ethnic and religious extremism in Ethiopia will totally alter the political and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa resulting in a security crisis that cannot easily be controlled and probably transform into a proxy war.  The Horn of Africa is the most complex and militarized region in the world and with the destabilization and resurgence of violent extremism,  Ethiopia  will undoubtedly be in a crisis that will severely affect the entire region.  The stakes are high and the players are many.

Radicalization is a phased process in which an individual or a group embraces a radical ideology that can lead to an increased willingness to condone or use violence for political goals. The radicalization process is unique to each individual. Radicalism challenges the legitimacy of established norms and policies. It does not, in itself, lead to violence. Extremism is different from radicalism. Extremists accept violence as a legitimate means for obtaining political goals without necessarily exercising violence. Terrorism or violent extremism encompasses violent behaviors that originate in an ideology shared by a limited group of individuals. Violent extremism includes the willingness as well as training, preparation and the actual conduct of violent acts against civilians. Terrorists show a severe disconnects from society and tend to devalue or dehumanize their victims.

( European Forum for Restorative  Justice)  

What we see in Ethiopia today are signs of radicalization and extremism.

The number one driver ‘push factor’, to violent extremism is poverty and unemployment.  Poverty pushes people towards radical and extremist ideas and inequality makes the poor more receptive to violent propagandas.  The recruits of violent extremists are uneducated and unemployed and being radicalized is a response to a government or political system that they consider illegitimate and one that has not addressed their basic needs.  Social media drives radicalization. But it is the narratives of the extremist Oromo leaders that is the main factor in the creation of violent extremism. ‘Pull factors’ include the extremist leaders promising   material, emotional or other benefits specifically owning larger territories so far held  (according to their narratives) by the Amharas and other ethnic groups and controlling the political and economic power of the country. They promise to bring more prosperity and entitlements to the Oromo people. They play on their dreams, needs, their fears and fantasies. They make them feel that they will get whatever they want to.

The promises they make are based on false narratives of their history, a history that makes the Oromos the perpetual victims  of oppression and marginalization. This was partly true up until 1976 when the then government known as the “dergue” declared a radical land reform, which enabled the Oromos to be landowners. Since then the problems that the Oromos have faced were no different from what the rest of the population has endured.  But the extremist leaders continue coming up with narratives that infuriate and motivate the young, the poor, the ignorant and the restless to join their call for violence to achieve an incomprehensible goal.  They join these criminal   groups voluntarily owing to the appeal of a group-based identity,  poverty, perceptions of exclusion and cultural threats and  other real or perceived  grievances and  the promise of economic empowerment .  By holding a machete or an AK 47 and being able to use it at will with impunity gives them power and control over others. This also gives them an opportunity to rob people of their belongings. In the process the government looses complete control and the warlords take over areas with fierce battles over turf and followers.

This crisis is the making of the Prime Minister who is more of a showman and a stooge of extremists rather than a leader with substance and grand strategy for peace and development in Ethiopia and the region. His intention was to create a modified version of the current political system and create a perception of change and maintain the status quo in a disguised form. That approach did not work and has not been fully accepted even by his own constituency

This stalemate has  created a crisis which requires the urgent intervention of the AU, the United Nations, and the European Union to ensure stability in Ethiopia,  but more importantly to ensure regional stability and prevent violent extremism from taking over the country and the region with global security implications. The instability of a country with a population of over 100 million will have far reaching consequences on every country in the region; and Europe should be bracing for the migration of millions.

Commenting on the Burmese politician Aung San Suu’s Nobel Prize for Peace, Hamid Dabashi, the Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University, had this to say: “The widely documented slaughter of Muslims in Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi’s callous disregard for their fate and even possible political collusion with the mass murderers now leaves no doubt that even if she originally deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, she most certainly no longer does. The world at large cannot be at the mercy of the Nobel Peace Prize spectacle to bestow such spectacular honor on a person and then wash its hands of the subsequent actions of these people. “

The public relations skill of Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed and his pathological lies did not give space to the international community to see the magnitude of the crimes that are being committed by the government security forces and vigilante mobs which people believe is organized with the knowledge of PM Abiy Ahmed.   Professor Dabashi asks,  “ Does this shameless power monger deserve to carry the title of a “Nobel Peace Prize laureate? Today Aung San Suu Kyi must be the single most embarrassing name on the roster of the Nobel Peace Prize recipients.” Under siege and under fire, Ethiopians are asking this same question today about their leader, Abiy Ahmed, the winner of the 2019 Nobel  Prize for Peace.

This is an early warning for Africa, Europe and America to brace themselves  for the influx of millions of Ethiopians and others  in the region, fleeing  their countries to seek asylum and protection. People with no options will trek the Sahara once again and seek freedom and protection at the gates of Europe and dare the Mediterranean. 2016 proved a record year for persons who crossed an international border seeking humanitarian space. This year or next year this record could be broken when the political violence in the Horn of Africa triggers an unprecedented human tragedy unless necessary measures are taken to stop this madness in Ethiopia.

“ Twenty years after the Rwanda genocide, where “ the consequences of failing to heed the warning signs were monumentally horrifying” the world must respond early to the risk of mass atrocities amid mounting religious and ethnic polarization, “ a United Nations special event warned in 2014.

Is the world heeding this early warning or is it going to ignore it once again and allow a horrifying civil war, the likes of  which Africa has never experienced, emerge in Ethiopia? It can be stopped because most Ethiopians want peace and peaceful coexistence. Ethiopians expect the international community to live up to its words of “ Never Again” in the aftermath of the holocaust and the Rwandan genocide.

 

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The PM Abiy administration’s Conundrum

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By Tibebe Birihan 

After a good fresh start when taking the helm a year and half ago, PM Abiy seemed to be destined to unify and pacify the country tormented by TPLF looting gangs for close to 30 years. Those who thought he was the answer to their prayers elevated him to the status of sainthood. They took him as a savior and the man to lead them to the Promised Land. A year and half later, things do seem not as rosy as once thought.

His reluctance to decisively deliver a blowing punch to the bleeding TPLF nose at the outset coupled with his invitations of unsavory ethnic opportunists to the country is now setting the stage for a bloody confrontation. His unwittingly appointing diehard ethnic cadres to the detrimental positions in the federal structure and, sidelining those who served as stepping stone for his ascent is now compounding the problems that he has to deal with. His anger and agitation against the “Balderas” movement and his haste in declaring as a coup what transpired in Bahirdar, further fuels the perception of him as having antipathy to the genuine Ethiopianist blocks.

While he is practically doing everything possible to transfer power to the hands of his ethnic party, his base unfortunately is embroiled with what he has to say as the leader of the country. They are vying to hear hatful and condescending speech targeting the Amara people for the base’s ephemeral pleasure like Meles Zenawi habitually used to do.

The Jawarian Qerros are now emboldened by the frequent tolerance and inaction exhibited by the security establishments while they criminally break the rule of law. They seem to think that they are the only ones who have the rights to do anything without accountability and often times get away with it. This must have created the impression in the mobs mentality that they can go even further to claim the helm and bestow it on their imagined true leader, aka Jawar. One can clearly conclude these intentions after observing the down down Abiy slogans and the burnings of his Medemer books at every gatherings of the mob that calls itself Qerro.

The PM frequently makes the case that democracy is messy and we, as a country are trying to emerge from the past authoritarian and dictatorial rules there by, tolerance is needed. However, one could easily argue against these premises by simply pointing the facts how his administration is dealing with other civic movements in the country, Balderas being the primary case in point. His administration also goes out of its way to apprehend members of NAMA by desperately trying to relate them to the unfortunate event of June 15th in Bahir Dar.

Suffice to say, the PM is now facing a formidable egoistic foe that is never to be satisfied short of replacing him. The opposition from the Oromo base against the PM is so intense and wide that it won’t be an easy task to do business as usual. What seems to be fueling the anger against the PM by his base is the discharging of the duties and responsibilities by the PM as the leader of the country, which seems to be going against the Oromo first manta of the ethnic extremists.  These inherent contradictions are created by the very structural problems that the country is said to have been federalized. One can’t satisfy two masters at the same time with same degree of loyalty. This vexed question of maintaining equilibrium is never the true objective of those who crafted such a system

The prime minister could have balanced the influence of the leaders of the Qerro movement by equally and practically empowering the Ethiopianist forces. These forces are huge in following but mostly silent and shying away from the limelight. The constant and unrelenting campaigns against these forces by the TPLF regime and the extreme ethnic zealots have created the appearance that such forces are relegated to irrelevance. The PM could still not only orally but practically show his stand with Ethiopia and for Ethiopia in such a way by creating the level field for such forces to operate freely and democratically. Short of that, PM Abiy is now becoming the victim of his own making.

The writer could be reach at @tbirihan@yahoo.com

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Liberal democracy is no liberator

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November 3, 2019
by Emmanuel Yirdaw

Liberal democracy will not liberate Ethiopian nationalities still struggling for recognition, and nor will it free the country from poverty

Under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the EPRDF ruling coalition diagnosed two existential threats: a perpetuation of poverty and a lack of accommodation of ethnic diversity. To survive state collapse and prosper, EPRDF ideologues argued, Ethiopia needed a system that respected ethnic diversity and delivered rapid economic growth. Revolutionary democracy was the vanguard party ideology designed to achieve this.

To address poverty, revolutionary democratic state-building justified the rapid expansion of the party-state into all spheres of Ethiopia’s socio-cultural and -economic fabric. Recognizing the forces of the global market economy, the Ethiopian state also assumed the role of stimulating growth. The Democratic Developmental State (DDS) was the name given to this form of dirigisme. This was justified on the grounds that rapid economic growth and development must be relatively egalitarian, with a focus on agrarian transformation and industrialisation.

Addressing ethnic diversity, revolutionary democracy focused on group rights and offered recognition to historically marginalized communities. It attended to the weight of long struggles for recognition by various ethnic groups in Ethiopia. The constitution and the ethnic-based federal system adopted in 1995—the culmination of ethnic liberation fronts overthrowing the unitary Derg regime—are evidence of this.

Both the DDS and Revolutionary Democracy contain the word ‘democracy.’ However, the way democracy was defined by EPRDF ideologues was different from the liberal sense. While liberal democracy sees elections, political freedom, and other related rights as ends, revolutionary democracy sees them as a means to an end. That is, democracy can be guaranteed if, and only if, economic growth and just representation of group rights are achieved.

Along this road to democracy, EPRDF considered constitutionally enshrined rights to self-rule for minority ethnic groups as evidence of the democratic nature of its system. Also, ‘democracy’, on its terms, partly referred to the mass mobilisation of farmers for ‘developmental’ and political activities, and also described the EPRDF’s party-culture of internal deliberation and evaluation (e.g. gimgema). As much as EPRDF claimed it was committed to parliamentary democracy, it was clear that, over the last decade at least, it was against democratic movements that might infringe upon the economic growth achieved through the DDS model. Developmentalism was untouchable, and beyond the scope of democracy.

This is captured in Meles Zenawi’s conversation with Alex de Waal, where he said: “Let’s be clear what we mean when we talk about democracy: it must be a democracy of real choices. If we allow unfettered political competition today, the rent-seekers will be able to offer far more to the voters than a developmental party can.” And, “That kind of democracy isn’t offering real choices. What would be a real choice is between different paths to value-creating development. We could have a dominant party system, as we have today, with different views expressed within the party. Or we could have competition between two parties, each of them subscribing to a hegemonic developmentalism… .” This, clearly, is an understanding of democracy distinct from the one offered by liberal democracy.

But more recently, it seems, liberal democracy is gaining unprecedented support in Ethiopia. The support is observed not just among an urban elite, but also among the poor and those in rural areas, although perhaps it is too soon to distinguish their enthusiasm for a new system from their desire for change from the old one. Calls for political liberties, genuine parliamentary democracy, and related democratic reforms are common. Even those participating in what can be captured as “identity politics” seem committed to such liberal reforms. Internally, EPRDF is also embracing it under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Adopting liberal democracy in Ethiopia has unpredictable implications. In part, this is because Ethiopia, in its long history, has never had a system close to it. However, at least two things can be said with conviction. First, the DDS model—which brought unprecedented economic transformation—is being altered into a more liberal, free-market economy: a move from Meles’ ‘dead-end’ to Abiy’s ‘new horizon.’ Second, the struggle for recognition faces an uphill stretch.

Arguably, liberal democracy will not be able to satisfy the long struggle for recognition by various Ethiopian nations. But before examining that, what exactly is the concept of “struggle for recognition?” And, how can we understand the Ethiopian version?

The Struggle for Recognition

To grasp the concept, we can trace its intellectual origin back to Phenomenology of Spirit, a work by the 19th Century German philosopher Friedrich Hegel. Here, it is the 20th century French-Russian political theorist of Hegel’s work, Alexander Kojeve, who will help us understand Hegel’s theory of recognition through his book Introduction to the Reading of Hegel.

For Hegel, humans have a natural desire for recognition. Hegel’s first man—i.e. before the formation of society—forces another man to recognize him. Since both have an innate desire to be recognized, they immediately get into a struggle for recognition. Hegel’s man is attacking the other man just for recognition. After winning the battle, Hegel’s man can exploit the other, take his property, and so on. However, the primary goal of the attack was achieving recognition. Therefore, for Hegel’s man, being recognized as a superior by the other has more significance than using him for material gain.

Man risks his physical well-being, economic well-being, and even his life in the fight for recognition. In fact, for Hegel, this is what makes us human. Animals, always being interested in their physical well-being, never get into a fight for mere recognition, only for material gain; or for status, which leads to material gain. Man, however, has this unique freedom to act against his animal desire of self-preservation and risk his life for recognition.

This is why we should not primarily think about the economic interests of a group fighting for recognition. They may gain a desirable material outcome, but such gains are incidental, not essential. In major, historical examples of ‘struggles for recognition’, such as the civil rights and feminist movements, a desire to be recognized as an equal played an essential role. In these movements the fight was for a group’s dignity, equality, respect, being considered a fellow human, and other related concepts of recognition. Neither African-Americans nor women merely fought for a more just distribution of economic goods or better income. Their fight, primarily, was for recognition of their equal worth.

The struggle for recognition in Ethiopia

Nonetheless, such struggles are easily confused with quests for a more just distribution of goods. Analyzing, say, the question of Sidama statehood or Oromo’s fight for the recognition of Addis Abeba as the capital city of Oromia from an economic perspective is common. But when an Oromo is outraged about the fact that their language is not used as a federal language; when a Sidama is not happy with the lack of Sidama statehood, when smaller groups were granted their own regions; or, when any other person from a particular ethnic group raises similar questions, they are not talking about economic well-being. It is recognition that they are talking about. Where is the direct economic benefit, for instance, in the strong demand of the Oromo people for Adama not to be called Nazreth?

The 1960s student revolutionaries, who gave form to the now prevalent and sometimes ugly identity politics in Ethiopia, did not confuse questions of recognition with economic ones, although, as Marxists, they highlighted economic injustice. Their call for radical land reform—“land to the tiller”—captures the economic question. But as much as they wanted to see the end of the exploitation of powerless tenants by their landlords in the gabbar system go away, they also understood the weight of the ‘question of nations’: a question of recognition.

Surprisingly, given the time passed, today’s identity politics revolves around similar questions. The revolutionary students’ point was clear: Ethiopia is a nation that does not recognize the diversity of identities that it has due to the cultural hegemony of Orthodox Christian highlanders. Walleligne Mekonnen, in his influential article On the Question of Nationalities in Ethiopia, wrote, “to be an Ethiopian, you will have to wear an Amhara mask.” This captured the core thesis the students wanted to negate. It also captures what many of those participating in identity politics today think they want to achieve: being able to take off what they believe is the Amhara mask and make sure their authentic identity is recognized in the Ethiopian sphere.

         Liberal democracy?

In The End of History and The Last Man, Francis Fukuyama argued that liberal democracy is a political system that has the ability to solve the problem of recognition. But, why did he say that? And will liberal democracy adequately cater for Ethiopia’s nations’ long struggle for recognition? To answer, we must go back to Hegel and Kojeve.

Hegel’s man gets into a fight with another man for mere recognition. The other man refuses to fight because he wants to preserve his life—he is a slave of self-preservation, like other animals. So, he submits to Hegel’s man and starts recognizing him as his Master. Now, we have a Master and a Slave. The Slave keeps recognizing his Master, but the Master does not recognize him back. This way, the Master’s desire to be recognized is fulfilled.

Soon, however, the Master will realize his desire to be recognized is not really satisfied. The Slave is an animal (an object) and the Master is not satisfied with the recognition that he gets from this non-human. As Kojeve puts it, “[t]he Master, therefore, was on the wrong track. After the fight that made him a Master, he is not what he wanted to be in starting that fight: a man recognized by another man.” At this point, he will look for another man to satisfy his need for recognition. But, again, the moment he defeats the man and makes him his Slave, the Slave ceases to be a human. He keeps going to many, many fights for recognition, but will never be satisfied.

The Master and Slave relation ceases to exist

This is true of the old kings and emperors, from Ethiopia and elsewhere, who would get into fights for mere recognition. The conquest does not really bring anything useful to them. In fact, it is usually a risky move. Nonetheless, they do it. The slaves are also unsatisfied. The reason for their dissatisfaction is clear: they are not being recognized. Just because they were defeated at the battle, it does not mean their desire to be recognized has vanished. They will try to get it by various means, such as revolution. Therefore, this Master-Slave relationship is never stable. This Hegelian reading of History indicates that the Master-Slave dialectic is what leads to revolutions, wars, the creation and destruction of empires, and the adoption of new political ideologies. In short, it is the instability in the relationship between the Master and the Slave that moves History.

What, then, is the solution? How can both the Master and the Slave satisfy their desire to be recognized? Kojeve writes, “Man can be fully realized and revealed—that is, be definitively satisfied—only by realizing a universal recognition… .” The Master must recognize the slave in order to receive recognition from a human—not a slave degraded to the status of an animal/object. The Slave will also satisfy his desire for recognition; he finally gets recognition from the Master. At this point, the Master and Slave relation ceases to exist.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the Annual Meeting 2019 of the World Economic Forum in Davos; January 23, 2019; Photo by World Economic Forum / Benedikt von Loebell

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the World Economic Forum in Davos; January 23, 2019; Photo by WEF/Benedikt von Loebell

This is where Fukuyama comes into the picture. He claims that liberal democracy is a system in which mutual recognition will be realized. All political systems from the primitive hunter-gatherer society to slave-owning societies, from imperial to colonial structures, from feudalism to theocracies, and from Nazism to communism have been tried and failed due to the unsolved Master-Slave contradiction. However, liberal democracy, due to the liberty and equality it affords to all, seemed to be a system in which the Master-Slave contradiction is solved. Recognition is afforded to all. Inevitably, sooner or later, the world will accept liberal democracy. And, when this happens, it will be The End of History, Fukuyama said, echoing Hegel.

From this, it follows that countries such as Ethiopia can solve the problem of recognition by adopting some form of liberal democracy. However, we should carefully scrutinize Fukuyama’s thesis. In principle, liberal democracy is committed to guaranteeing two things for all: liberty and equality. Yet it does not give adequate attention to the struggle for recognition by various groups for at least two reasons.

First, in political liberalism, it is liberty that usually takes the upper hand in the contest between liberty and equality. Although alluring, liberty does not provide a proper framework for compensating groups that suffered injustice. Saying, for instance, equal liberty to all Ethiopians will be afforded from now on does not make life any better for those who are poor or suffered through historical injustice, and, consequently, are unable to exercise their liberty. While the privileged are given a free rein to convert their existing advantages into ever-increasing superiority.

Second, even when liberal democracy gives equality a deserved attention, it focuses on economic equality and a more just distribution of wealth. As we have seen, however, economic questions such as the quest for a more just distribution of wealth are not at the heart of many groups’ struggles. Rather, it is ‘recognition’ that they are primarily fighting for; a socio-cultural concept, difficult to be captured by a liberal democratic paradigm that focuses on tangible economic matters.

Criticizing liberal theorists of justice in her book Justice and the Politics of DifferenceIris Marion Young writes, “[t]here are many claims about justice and injustice in our society which are not primarily about the distribution of income, resources, or positions. A focus on the distribution of material goods and resources inappropriately restricts the scope of justice.” It is this restricted conception of justice that makes liberal democracy unable to resolve problems of recognition. Therefore, it seems fair to say, liberal democracy, even when focusing on economic equality, cannot sufficiently address the ‘struggle for recognition.’

Ethiopia’s march towards liberal democracy

It must be understood that Ethiopia’s revolutionary democracy was not a system that was intended to stay in place forever. It represented a necessary stage of development before liberal democracy. The model’s objective is making sure that Ethiopia is not poor when the inevitable move towards liberal democracy is initiated. Again, to quote Meles, “we can’t have democracy with an empty belly.”

Looking at today’s openness to liberal democracy in Ethiopia, one might ask, “is our belly finally full?” The answer is a resounding “no”. While it is true that Ethiopia’s growth for the past decade and a half has been astonishing, poverty is still prevalent. Middle-income status, which, according to Meles and the old EPRDF, is a necessary condition that guarantees sustainable growth, has not been achieved. It is clear then that the reason for a shift towards liberal democracy is, to rephrase Meles, the inability to contain the people’s demand. For two reasons, I think this move towards liberal democracy has a very thin possibility of providing mutual recognition in Ethiopia, and, accordingly, rendering ‘identity politics’ unimportant.

The 21st century does not bode well for liberal democracy

Generally, the 21st century does not bode well for liberal democracy—it is in retreat. From Hungary to Poland, from the U.K. to the United States, and from Italy to Sweden, nationalism and ethno-identity politics are on the rise. Fukuyama himself has partially admitted this. In his new book Identityhe puts forward the view that modern liberal democracies have not fully solved the problem of recognition. If historically liberal countries are having a hard time solving the problem of recognition, what reason do we have to think that liberal democracy can bring adequate mutual recognition to Ethiopia?

Meanwhile, the internal political situation of Ethiopia is also not encouraging. The liberalization of the political sphere after Abiy Ahmed came to power led to an unprecedented rise in ethnic nationalism and conflict, and the protests that allowed him to take power had a strong ethno-nationalist component. Old questions of nations demanding recognition have resurfaced with a vengeance. Even the Amhara, who, previously eschewed ethnic nationalism, are subscribing to a strong form of it.

It is not clear how a commitment to liberal principles is going to find a middle ground between the opposing forces of Amhara and Oromo nationalisms. How is the Oromo activist demand for Addis Abeba to be under Oromia regional state’s administration going to be solved under a liberal democratic paradigm; and, how about questions of respect and dignity related to symbols such as monuments, statues, and the flag? Under the old EPRDF,  sticking to the constitution, Oromia could have been finally granted its “Special Interest” in Addis Ababa, and internal dialogue within the EPRDF might have struck a balance between the ruling coalition partners from Amhara and Oromia.

Related to the above point is the prospect of a democratic election—one of the defining features of liberal democracy. Some may argue that guaranteeing a free and fair election—as anticipated for in 2020—will improve ethnic relationships and solve the problem of recognition. However, even here, one is forced to be suspicious for at least three reasons:

First, the chances of a free and peaceful election are not high. Under the current political climate, conducting an election seems to be a path towards violence, led by ethno-nationalists. Different ethnic groups have the incentive and power to reject the outcome of elections in various areas, potentially leading to either a post-electoral deadlock or conflict.

Second, assuming that a democratic election is conducted, ethno-nationalist parties are likely to win many seats. It is not clear how the parliament and, consequently, the government would then function. For example, it is unreasonable for any observer to think that a parliament in which both the National Movement of Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Front representatives occupy chunks of the chamber is going to be functional in any sense.

Third, assuming that (a) a free, fair, and peaceful election is conducted, and (b) political parties can come to an agreement to form a government, there is a distinct possibility of a majoritarian democracy emerging. This, of course, is through the Oromo and Amhara. Together, these two ethnic groups make up almost two-thirds of the population. In a democratic system, some sort of coalition between the two giants is going to be at the center of decision making. But while trying to make sure their constituents are satisfied and trying to reach a compromise, parties representing the two large groups might infringe on the interests of minorities. Although there are ways of trying to prevent this, it seems impossible to prevent it altogether. This, then, takes us back to the original problem of recognition—this time, for minority ethnic groups.

Another argument in defense of liberal democracy could be from the standpoint of development. That is, it can be argued that liberal democracy will lead us to economic growth, and this, in turn, can lead to deescalating ethnic tension and satisfy the desire for recognition. This is also suspicious because it is not clear that the liberalization of our economy will lead us to any significant growth. Looking at world politics, it seems there is no monopoly on growth by liberal democratic countries. Instead the most remarkable progress has been made recently by the illiberal Chinese system. And Ethiopia, for instance, has achieved high growth and poverty reduction over the past decade under the DDS model.

Also, even if it is the case that liberalizing our economy can lead to prosperity, it is not clear how it will solve the problem of recognition, as economic growth and distributive justice do not provide a complete answer. It is also important to note that populism and nationalism are rising in the developed world. This tells us something important about the possibility of growth deterring the quest for recognition in a country like Ethiopia with historically complicated ethnic relations.

Point of no return

In his visit to Ethiopia earlier this year, Fukuyama said that the old EPRDF’s ways were not the way forward. However, as pointed out by Alemayehu Weldemariam, if we are to follow Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis, it is not clear why we should ignore Meles’ view that revolutionary democracy is a path that will take us to liberal democracy. However, given that liberal democracy does not seem to guarantee mutual recognition, Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis should not serve as the framework with which we analyze contemporary Ethiopian politics.

Yet this is not to say that we should ignore and dismiss the current openness to liberal democracy and go back to the old ways. It must not be forgotten that revolutionary democracy and the DDS model were filled with problems. Rent-seeking behaviour and corruption were rampant while debt was getting out of control. There was also the unsolved problem of effectively practising the centrally driven DDS model in an ethnically diverse country. Popular demand for political liberalism could not, by definition, be addressed under a revolutionary democratic paradigm. Furthermore, those who fought for political rights and civil liberties suffered abhorrent human rights abuses while laws such as the anti-terrorism proclamation intimidated the public.

Going back to the old ways also seems unlikely in light of the public demand and Abiy’s seeming determination to pursue democratic reforms. Critiquing revolutionary democracy, Abiy’s new philosophy of ‘medemer seems to be broadly a move towards liberal democracy. Although this shift may correct some glaring mistakes of the past, it does not seem to be a paradigm under which mutual recognition amongst ethnic groups will be achieved. Therefore, we ought to be circumspect about this well-intentioned march towards liberal democracy.

Query or correction? Email us

Main photo: The cover of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s book Medemer (‘Synergy’) and former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi

Edited by William Davison and Jonah Wedekind

Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. Cite Ethiopia Insight and link to this page if republished. 

Related Insight

Sep. 18, 2018 Domestic despair shadows Abiy’s diplomatic waltz

Oct 21, 2018 Ethiopia: Climbing Mount Uncertainty

Jan. 10, 2019 Ethiopia’s federation needs reviving, not reconfiguring

Feb. 27, 2019  Ethiopian elite lost in electoral maze under Abiy’s gaze

July 24, 2019 Elections in End Times

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Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed is facing the greatest test of his leadership

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Ethnic and religious tensions that have spilled into violence and the deaths of dozens of protesters have their roots in the 1990s constitution

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Tiksa Negeri / Reuters

Last month Jawar Mohammed, a prominent African activist and media mogul, accused his country’s prime minister of trying to have him assassinated and criticised the rising “authoritarianism” of the political class.

It is a fairly common story on a continent where too many leaders cling onto power, quashing dissent and mismanaging their resources.

But the target of Mr Jawar’s attack will surprise many. It is Abiy Ahmed, the reformist Ethiopian prime minister who less than a month ago won the Nobel Peace Prize for transforming the east African country and ending a 20-year conflict with its northern neighbour, Eritrea.

The speed of change in Africa’s second most populous country has been unprecedented – and largely positive. But just over a year since Mr Abiy took office, intercommunal violence and ethnonationalism remain a problem, leaving many dead and millions displaced. Mr Abiy’s security forces are accused of using forceful tactics to suppress protests fuelled by ethnic and religious divides. The outbreaks of violence speak to the core challenge of governing Ethiopia, with its complex patchwork of ethnic groups, and the urgency of a new political settlement in Africa’s original empire.Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize last month. Stian Lysberg Solum / EPA

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize last month. Stian Lysberg Solum / EPA

To be clear, the continent’s youngest, most dynamic leader deserves much of the praise that has come his way. A former intelligence chief from Ethiopia’s largest but victimised Oromo ethnic group, often pictured sporting fatigues and doing press-ups with his soldiers, Mr Abiy has been a livewire.

When he came to office, protests that left 500 dead at the hands of security forces in 2016 had rumbled on for two more years. Mr Abiy responded to tensions by releasing thousands of political prisoners, reintegrating illegal armed groups and political parties, and liberating the press and the nation’s fast-growing economy. He set about remodelling authoritarian Ethiopia as a multiparty democracy.

The peace deal with Eritrea, which ended two decades of fighting over a sliver of borderland and required handing over small towns, showed real courage, not least because it angered Ethiopian military hawks. The significance of such a deal, which has implications for stability, growth and trade in east Africa, is clear in both Mr Abiy’s Nobel prize and the role that Gulf states, including the UAE, played in facilitating it.

The conflict was not merely a local problem but a regional one – and Mr Abiy seemed to many the answer.

However, by unmuzzling the press, civil society and myriad groups, Mr Abiy has created a space for the airing of grievances about resources, territory and power, which came to a head with a failed but deadly coup attempt in the northern state of Amhara in mid-June.

It is vital that the prime minister does not lose sight of the progress his administration has already made

Meanwhile, there are fears that Mr Abiy himself is deploying authoritarian tactics, despite the honour bestowed upon him last month by the Nobel committee. In October, the residence of Mr Jawar, founder of the Oromo Media Network, was suddenly surrounded by police in what he denounced as an assassination attempt. After Mr Jawar took to Facebook, his supporters clashed with security forces in Addis Ababa. During the violent exchanges, which evolved into ethnic clashes, at least 86 were killed in the capital – 10 of them by security forces, according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. Earlier, the prime minister had told parliament that he would “take measures” against media owners who undermined the peace of Ethiopia.

In the eastern province of Dadar, protesters burned copies of a new book penned by Mr Abiy and distributed nationally, which sums up his vision for Ethiopia, while chants of “down, down Abiy” could be heard in the capital.

This is the greatest challenge Mr Abiy has faced since taking up office. The world is watching and hoping Ethiopia can move towards stability, to the extent that Pope Francis included the nation’s troubles in his Sunday address at the Vatican. “I ask you to pray for all the victims of violence in that land,” said the pontiff.

To understand how the country reached this point, we must step back to 1991, when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrew the brutal Marxist-Leninist Derg dictatorship and seized power. A coalition of four parties, the EPRDF has ruled ever since and holds all 547 seats in Ethiopia’s parliament.

In 1995, the party introduced a new national constitution, which divided the country into nine ethnic regions. Rather than choosing to integrate Ethiopia’s myriad ethnic groups – each with their own identities, languages, customs and cultures – the EPRDF opted for segregation, creating a zero-sum game for resources and paving the way for the crisis we see today.

Ethiopian men carrying traditional hand-woven food baskets as they walk to a reconciliation meeting in the Irob district in northern Ethiopia near the border with Eritrea, in the Tigray region, the area most affected by the 1998-2000 border war and the long, bitter stalemate that followed. Michael Tewelde / AFP
Ethiopian men carrying traditional hand-woven food baskets as they walk to a reconciliation meeting in the Irob district in northern Ethiopia near the border with Eritrea, in the Tigray region, the area most affected by the 1998-2000 border war and the long, bitter stalemate that followed. Michael Tewelde / AFP

The Oromo, who make up a third of the population but were traditionally marginalised, joined the Amhara in the streets from 2016 onwards, braving police brutality to demand an end to the supremacy of the Tigrayans, a tiny group that dominated the EPRDF – and therefore the country at large.

Former prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn stepped down in 2018, unable to quell the protests, before Mr Abiy, Ethiopia’s first Oromo leader, was appointed by the EPRDF.

Today, fighting plagues swathes of the country, particularly in the south, where scores of different ethnic groups are in fierce competition for land and resources. Hundreds have died since last year while more people were displaced in Ethiopia in 2018 than in war-torn Syria. Squalid and under-resourced refugee camps are near breaking point.

In the north, the Amhara and Tigrayans are engaged in a territorial dispute, while the latter resent Mr Abiy for pushing them from power.

Protests have been met at times with police violence. Meanwhile, intermittent internet shutdowns have spurred fears of a clampdown on communication.

At an international level, the prime minister is locked in a war of words with Egypt over a $5 billion (Dh18.4bn) Nile dam project – Africa’s largest hydropower facility due to be built near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border – which has Cairo worried about its already scarce access to water. The foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will be meeting in Washington tomorrow at the behest of US President Donald Trump to break the deadlock in negotiations.

US President Donald Trump with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in the Oval Office in April. Mr Trump has offered to intervene to break the deadlock with Ethiopia over its construction of a massive upstream Nile dam. Evan Vucci / AP

It is vital that the prime minister does not lose sight of the progress his administration has already made. He must ensure that liberty and free speech do not breed paranoia, months before elections in May next year that he has promised will be free, fair and competitive. And he must root out rogue elements within his security forces responsible for the recent bloodshed.

Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. The 1995 constitution that divides people by ethnicity is out of date and needs a reboot. The country must engage in a national dialogue to reassure all groups that their voices will be heard in Mr Abiy’s Ethiopia. The prime minister has worked hard to improve his country and make peace with its neighbour Eritrea. He deserves praise and support but must be cautious in protecting what he has achieved.

If not, the progress Mr Abiy has made could come apart at the seams. And his new Ethiopia could collapse even more quickly than it was built.

Updated: November 6, 2019

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Ethiopia where the oppressed become the oppressor

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Abiy Ahmed Photographer: Zacharias Abubeker/AFP Via Getty Images

By Teklu Abate

Following the election on 2 April 2018 (by the EPRDF) of Dr Abiy Ahmed as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, there was massive, country-wide popular support for him and euphoria for social change. Substantial changes are made to cabinet composition. New commissions and agencies are established to harness smooth transition to genuine democracy. Political prisoners are released and the infamous Maekelawi jail is turned in to a museum. The secretive imperial palace (considered by the many as Death Valley, as many are killed and buried there by the Imperial and Derg regimes) is renovated and is made open for public visit. All types of media are set free and free speech is made part of public reality. Successful diplomatic initiatives are undertaken with neighbouring countries which mainly contributed to the award of the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for 2019 to Dr Abiy.

In his efforts to introduce and sustain a qualitatively different political dynamic in Ethiopia, Dr Abiy, as expected, faced hurdles after hurdles which cost Ethiopia dearly in terms of irreplaceable human lives. The scoio-cultural capital built by ethnic groups for years seems to shake up by the tremors. Ethnic-based skirmishes drive millions out of their ancestral lands and villages. The Nobel Peace Prize moments of happiness are immediately dashed out by the heartless carnage of 86 Ethiopians. Surprisingly, much of the chaos is taking place within Dr Abiy’s political constituency, Oromia. The ruling party, EPRDF, is in disarray. On top of all these, it is declared that Ethiopia aspires to hold general/national elections in 2020. All these seem to create a strong sense of bewilderness as to what trajectory the country is taking and how. Who is responsible for all these social evils? How can we Ethiopians overcome the hurdles and establish a lasting democratic culture?

This piece aims to contribute toward a clear conception of the struggle for genuine democracy in terms of its particular challenges and possible ameliorating strategies. It has to be made clear that this is not an academic-like discussion of social and political change; it is more of a reflection of my desire to see an empowering and lasting change in Ethiopia. I do not claim that my contribution is not pure original; I try to map out the fundamental challenges of the struggle based on media coverages, my observations and Paulo Freire’s famous Pedagogy of the Oppressed (1970) conception of humanity, oppression, empowerment, and change. The late Brazilian philosopher Freire received numerous awards for his works which influenced popular struggles for freedom in Latin America and worldwide. I believe that any struggle for freedom can benefit from Freire’s philosophy. My use of his conception in this piece is but limited to conceptions of challenges facing a struggle like ours. If we Ethiopians dare to think higher and clearer, we can ensure that poverty, tribalism, dictatorship and war kiss the abyss of history for good.

The target readers of my piece are the silent but highly educated Ethiopians at home and abroad, activists and commentators, the media (social and broadcast), opposition party leaders, civil society organizations, religious institutions, and EPRDF leadership, its members and active supporters. Considering the size of the Ethiopian population, these are obviously the minority, but they have been and still defining what trajectory Ethiopia takes. They do have the means and the capitals needed and can easily get the trust of the majority. That these sections of society seem to have differing and competing worldviews also further justify the need to target these readers for my piece.

Formidable challenges for Abiy and Ethiopia

Creating and sustaining an all-inclusive democratic system is not an easy feat. Ethiopia now faces colossal challenges of all sorts. I outlined below some fundamental challenges that are castrating our ambition and confidence toward complete and sustainable liberation and genuine democratic governance. The most threatening and incapacitating factor taking the entire country as a hostage is the emergence of new clones of oppressors who were once among the oppressed majority. The unity and integrity of Ethiopia seems to be shaken by this new breed of oppressors.

 

The oppressed turned as the oppressor

Due to the dehumanizing nature of oppressors, who are defined here as those who 1) do not freely think and act responsibly to actualize their dreams, and 2) do limit or challenge by any means available the free will and action of others, it is likely that the formerly oppressed (who were among the oppressed by the TPLF-led dictatorship) use dehumanizing strategies against their oppressors and the general populace to arrive at their goals. The TPLF is known for using the intelligence facilities, the police, the military, public media, and other institutions to castrate every free move of the citizenry. They were the real oppressors or at least leaders of the oppressors until April 2018. Now the TPLF and its entourage are technically gone, cornered and hopelessly kicking their shells from afar, Mekelle. What is worrisome and shameful is that several of those who once fought for overcoming TPLF-induced and run oppression turn themselves into new oppressors. Using the structures and arrangements they created during and in the fight against the TPLF, the new oppressors keep terrorizing the general populace. Their discourses freely expressed in social and mass media reveal zest for sheer dominance, power, exclusion, dehumanization, torture, intimidation, and persecution. Their discourses and talks embody actions, hence the senseless killings we happen to witness across Ethiopia.

For reasons ascribed to ethnic interests, the formerly oppressed (who include many from activists, politicians, the youth, and even the highly educated) turned themselves violent and are systematically incapacitating state machinery and the popular struggle for genuine transition to democracy. Enjoying at times state protection and the other opportunities the struggle bear so far, the new oppressors position themselves as formidable forces who are fighting for the causes of Oromia. The new oppressors embrace sectarian and fanatic rhetorics. This qualifies them as the most formidable forces that can send their tremors overnight and shake the entire landscape of Ethiopia. These new oppressors have tentacles that parallel and outsmart government structures and arrangements all the way from the federal offices down to the Kebeles. The new oppressors paralyze federal and regional government bureaucracies and threaten to cause even more damage if provoked. This gives sleepless nights to the incumbent, Dr Abiye and his government, as well as to all peace-loving Ethiopians.

 

Fanaticism and sectarianism

Destructive fanaticism and sectarianism also challenge the integrity of the struggle and are about to miscarriage liberation. Ethnic-based political discourses are being constructed and promoted everywhere. The majority of the 140 political parties including the ruling party, EPRDF, are organized along ethnic lines. Ethnic discourses are by their very nature incompatible to each other and hence are exclusionary. The validity and fecundity of a particular ethnic discourse is ensured at the expense of other discourses. This logic partly leads to fanaticism, sectarianism, ethnic hatred, and then persecution. Much of the political debates we have in Ethiopia is framed within this hoax. This makes it difficult to incept, develop, and sustain political discourses based on quality of ideas and policies. The prime minister tried hard to create and sustain a political culture and ambition that transcend ethnicity but to no avail. Ethnicity is the lifeblood of political organization and operation in Ethiopia. This type of politics is like a Blackbox; once you are sucked in, there does not seem to have a chance to escape back. Unfortunately, a sizable portion of the population in one way or another plays around sectarianism.

 

Identification

A not negligible part of the population is identifying with the new and the old oppressors. The oppressors boast to have millions of active members and supporters at their disposal. Many play the role of bandas, covertly serving the interests of the oppressors. The recent massacres in the various parts of Ethiopia are testimonies to the existence of a populace base for the new oppressors. On top of that, a minority group from the former oppressors has special and often times political and economic interests and ties with the new oppressors. For they fear for their own safety, prosperity, and influence, these groups are putting to the liberation struggle hurdles after hurdles.

 

Dependence

Some radicals in the struggle create, consciously or otherwise, in the name of popular struggle, emotional, moral, and/or psychological dependence on the mass. The mass may then think that it is only the leaders who should decide and act. Plus, the leaders of the oppressed may unconsciously own the struggle. Self-declared leaders of ethnic groups and social movements work smart and hard to create psychological dependence on their followers. Followers religiously submit to the whims of their self-appointed leaders. The former considers the latter as their messiahs, protectorates, and liberators. This state of dependency does not discriminate political parties; the prime minister, leaders of political parties and ethnic groups have many unquestioning followers who psychologically and morally depended on them. This state of mind is itself limiting, oppressive, dehumanizing, and castrates genuine struggle for democratic governance in Ethiopia.

 

Convert dilemma

As the liberation moves forward, people from the former oppressor side left their ranks and files and joined the new political climate. The converts shamelessly feel that they are capable and experienced, and hence they want to lead the new struggle. Abiy’s philosophy of Synergy seems to come to their rescue. That is why we see many of them are still assuming key public positions and easily mingling with Dr Abiy. More depressing is that converts may not trust the mass. In a way, converts may not be able to bring a profound change in their world views and actions which may pose a particular challenge to the struggle. That is partly why they appear indecisive, insecure, and actionless- all these in the end rests in shaming and blaming the prime minister. The converts are real menaces to the further progression of the change process in Ethiopia. They are in constant fear of being persecuted and prosecuted someday should the change matures and solidifies itself.

 

Fear of freedom

The oppressed lack self-confidence in openly challenging the new system and its elements that frustrate genuine change. The oppressed self-depreciate, as they are treated like powerless, lazy, and envious by the old and new oppressors alike. The majority feel and fear that pushing this new structure a little further might trigger the outbreak of a protracted civil war. The majority of the population is still indifferent; it stands tall and quiet in the midst of all the killings, persecutions and bogus prosecutions. The oppressors (old and new) also fear real freedom and democracy, as they always consider that liberation is possible only at the expense of their safety and comfort. So, both the oppressed majority and the (old and new) oppressors fear to engage in meaningful deliberations that could result in the founding of genuine democratic governance systems in Ethiopia.

 

Concluding remarks

 

I would like to make some closing remarks. One, struggle for complete liberation and democratic governance requires profound love for people, humility, intense faith in people capacity/potential, mutual trust, hope, self-regulation, and critical thinking. Two, confront the culture of oppression culturally (deal with the world views, consciousness, actions, ethics… of the oppressor). Three, oppression embodies violence; the initiator of violence, terror, despotism, dissatisfaction, and hatred is the oppressor. If the oppressor is not willing to come to terms with peaceful struggle, the oppressed have that right of using any means thought to meet the goal- to liberate the oppressor and the oppressed alike. The latter can also restrict the movements of converts and others who appear to castrate the struggle. Four, if the oppressor is willing to have genuine dialogue possibly leading to national consensus and reconciliation, the oppressed MUST participate genuinely. Five, leaders of the struggle MUST understand the fact that they fight not for the people but with the people. Six, the goal of the struggle, to liberate the oppressor and the oppressed, MUST be constantly articulated and communicated to all sections of the society including to those linked to the oppressors. Seven, we can deliberately forget what the old and new oppressors have been doing against us and focus more on the now and the future.

I finish this piece by quoting from Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom (1994), as it mightily summarizes my arguments: “I told white audiences that we needed them and did not want them to leave the country. They were South Africans just like ourselves and this was their land, too. I would not mince words about the horrors of apartheid, but I said, over and over, that we should forget the past and concentrate on building a better future for all” (736 – 737).

 

We shall be free!!!

 

This article is based on my piece entitled Save Ethiopia by Saving the TPLF! Published on 20 December 2017.  The writer can be reached at teklu.abate@gmail.com.

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Why Ethiopians are losing faith in Abiy’s promises for peace

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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize last month. Stian Lysberg Solum / EPA

By Yohannes Gedamu

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, the political reforms and initiatives he promised were met with much hope and optimism. He promised to address Ethiopia’s deteriorating ethnic relations, to build national unity, and reignite the stalled democratic process.

And his efforts to end the 20-year conflict with Eritrea won him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Despite this accolade, Abiy’s Ethiopia continues to witness recurring incidents of violence within its borders. As a result, the tide of enthusiasm for the premier’s reforms is waning. The reforms, from the promise to release political prisoners, to the opening of the media space, now seem distant memories.

Abiy’s administration has failed to adequately address the political wrangling within the federal government and recurring ethnic conflict. These two factors are putting the country on the path to destruction. The federal government has failed to assert itself as the top authority. This has created space for regional actors to violently oppose the state.

Spiralling instability

The ethnic federal government, which has divided the country along tribal lines, and the legacy of Ethiopia’s authoritarian system, are structural challenges that cannot be underestimated. These challenges have not been addressed by Abiy’s administration. It is understood that reform takes time, but the premier’s flip flopping on some of the issues has caused uneasiness with his leadership. One such issue is the creation of a non-ethnic federation.

His muted response to the rising ethnic violence is worsening peace and security. Today, Ethiopia’s ethnic violence is costing thousands of lives and millions have been displaced. The situation is also weakening the country’s economy.

To make matters worse, the political leadership within the governing Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is divided. Over the past few months in particular, the political parties that make up the ruling coalition have been blaming each other for Ethiopia’s political dysfunction.

As the wrangling continues, EPRDF’s constituent parties from the Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions are asserting themselves more than ever. Some of the parties are known for advocating the politics of ethno-nationalism which has historically polarised Ethiopia’s ethnic federation. Ethno-nationalism is an ideology that defines national identity based on ethnicity.

Today, ethno-nationalists are seizing the opportunity to gain the political upper hand. Abiy’s regime’s failure to stabilise the nation, and declining public trust in his administration, have given them fresh political momentum.

His position has also been weakened by forces like the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, the dominant political force in pre-Abiy Ethiopia, which is throwing its support behind the ethno-nationalist movements that are opposed to his leadership.

The premier’s dilemma

Abiy seems to be the prisoner of Ethiopia’s federal government, the very system that propped him up. This federal system draws its legitimacy from citizens maintaining a strong ethnic identity at the regional level. In light of this the new premier has two options.

One is to actively pursue the unifying agenda that made him popular, which would alienate his ethnic Oromo constituency. The other is to align with the interests of the Oromo ethno-nationalist movement. This would secure the electoral support of his political base in Oromia. But choosing the latter could deprive him of the non-Oromo support he has been enjoying.

Indeed, since Abiy was elected the nation has gone down a renewed path of violence. It is not only the Ethiopian people who are divided, it is also the political elites who had previously shown support for Abiy’s leadership. Ethiopia’s two majority groups – the Amharas and the Oromos – have been particularly critical of the prime minister’s perceived inability to address the country’s political tumult.

This follows a coup attempt in the Amhara region that left its president Ambachew Mekonnen, the country’s military chief-of-staff Seare Mekonnen, and three others dead. The Oromia region has also been the scene of recurrent violence where rallies against Abiy have recently erupted after Oromo activist Jawar Mohammed accused security forces of trying to orchestrate an attack against him.

Abiy has also been criticised for the reemergence of ethnic bias in the federal government’s political decision making.

Abiy’s response

Abiy has so far defended his administration’s response to the violence and called on Ethiopians to shun those who try to divide them. However, he has not distanced himself from front-line Oromo ethno-nationalist activists. This has led to the perception there is a pro-Oromo bias in his administration.

There are signs of a burgeoning political dysfunction, from the way in which the administration attempted to resettle internally displaced Ethiopians based on their ethnicity to the complacency in addressing the violence.

Abiy’s promise to foster national reconciliation through the new national reconciliation commission seems to be forgotten. The political space that opened up with Abiy’s election is closing. And the notorious torture chambers that were closed have been replaced by new jails that operate like the old ones. This throws the promise of a fair justice system into question.

Political prisoners jailed by Abiy’s administration speak out.

All things considered, it would appear that the EPRDF old guard is an obstacle to Abiy’s reform process. It could also be that the new premier is no longer fully committed to the promise of a new Ethiopia. Fortunately for the prime minister a section of the public still has faith that the newly minted Nobel Laureate can deliver on his promises.

But if Abiy doesn’t take decisive steps to stabilise the country, chances are high that the Ethiopian state could crumble. To prevent this, the premier must assert the federal government’s power to ensure peace and security. He must negotiate with his adversaries and allies on the direction the country is taking, and find a way to tame powerful ethno-nationalist activists. Importantly, unless he genuinely attempts to reinvigorate ties between the parties in the ruling coalition, the country’s violent trajector

 

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DIGITAL PSYCHO-TERRORISTS’ INFOWARS ON ETHIOPIA: Fool Me Once, Shame on You. Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me!

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By Prof. Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: The information war (InfoWars) on Ethiopia today is in full swing.

Lies, fake news and disinformation intended to bamboozle, hoodwink and confuse Ethiopians are spreading on social and legacy media like the bubonic plague.

The vectors of this social pandemic are social media rodents, online mind-sucking ticks and cyber tsetse flies that spread anxiety, sleeplessness, confusion, demoralization, anger, misery, despair and a malaise of doom and gloom on a vulnerable population.

Last week, I got dozens of inquiries by phone, email and text about a tweet allegedly sent out by President Donald Trump (screenshot below). I would have ignored and dismissed the whole episode as a childish prank but for the fact that the people contacting me, often cheerfully, were well-known members of the Ethiopian diaspora establishment including respected academicians, businesspersons, religious leaders and retired public officials.

I was stunned how a patently and manifestly fake Trump tweet could fool so many people who are judicious, cautious and even shrewd in their professional  lives. I wondered how such a simple piece of photoshopped disinformation could reverberate throughout social media land and confuse, mislead, deceive and fool others who lack sophistication, discernment and tech savvy.

There is an organized and concerted effort to bury the people of Ethiopia under a social media avalanche of evil propaganda, disinformation and fake news  24/7/365. The aim of this effort is to perpetrate psychological terrorism on naive, gullible and unsuspecting people undergoing emotional turmoil about the political and social situation in Ethiopia.

The strategic aim of the digital psycho-terrorists is 1) to use fake news, disinformation,  conspiracy theories and psychological warfare to delegitimize, destabilize and discredit the current leadership and changes taking place in Ethiopia after 27 years of ethnic apartheid rule, and 2) to create total chaos and anarchy in the country and create an opportunity for the those who were kicked out of power and and their Johnnycomelately lackeys (ye dil tor arbegnoch) to return to power as savior white knights in shining armor.

Their tactic is a simple one. “Repeat as many lies, disinformation and conspiracy theories often enough and they become truth”. Or as Mao Zedong said, “A lie told a hundred times becomes the truth.”

I call this information/psychological warfare “digital psycho-terrorism”.

I shall argue in this commentary that it is necessary to organize and implement a digital psychological counter-terrorism program to fight lies, disinformation and conspiracy theories on social media and online.

I tender the old maxim paraphrased, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of lies, disinformation and conspiracy on social media and online is for good men and women to remain dupes and do nothing.”

It is the moral obligation of all people of good will, good mind, good heart and good faith to fight digital psycho-terrorists on and offline day and night for evil never sleeps.

I have been warning on the coming of digital psycho-terrorist troll infowars on Ethiopia(ns) for years

I have been warning my readers and followers of the looming digital psycho-terrorist infowars for some time now.

In my September 5, 2016 commentary, I discussed the lies and disinformation campaigns of the previous ethnic apartheid regime. I explained how the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) waged a 25-year-long disinformation campaign to keep itself in power. I identified 10 elements of the TPLF’s coordinated disinformation campaigns.

In my September 16, 2016 commentary, I warned we should never let the TPLF con men scam and flim-flam us with their targeted disinformation campaigns.

In my September 25, 2016 commentary, I examined the TPLF’s massive disinformation campaign to discredit the widespread popular uprising (which ultimately occasioned its demise) against its oppressive rule in Ethiopia and challenged the cry wolf TPLF boys who were creating alarm and fear by announcing imminent genocide.

In my March 2017 commentary, I wrote about the “Lords of Living Lies” and their “infernal life of complete mendacity on Planet Denial-istan Ethiopia.” I deconstructed 10 boldfaced and shameless TPLF lies in the TPLF fictional narrative by simply fake (fact) checking them.

In my August 12, 2018, commentary I explained how the Forces of Darkness have weaponized, tribalized and vulgarized social media in their infowars to polarize Ethiopians and derail the peaceful revolution in Ethiopia. I called on all Ethiopian social media warriors to come to the aid of their country to fight fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories.

In a joint opinion piece dated August 17, 2018, we expressed concern over the  lies and rumors spread on social media to create instability, violence, death and destruction in Ethiopia. We condemned the rumor mill operated by a well-organized group of digital thugs to delegitimize Prime Minster Abiy and his government and rob public confidence in the peaceful change that is taking place in Ethiopia.

In my March 2019 commentary I demonstrated how the “Chicken Littles of Ethiopia” were in full hysteria mode clucking, “The sky is falling on Ethiopia.” I examined the relentless psychological war of attrition aimed at manipulating minds, crushing hearts, fraying nerves and breaking down the spirit of the Ethiopian people.

Back in my May 2011 commentary, I demonstrated how TPLF Uber Boss Meles Zenawi had been making hyperbolic claims of economic growth in Ethiopia by cooking statistics and massaging GDP (gross domestic product) numbers to claim Ethiopia is in a state of runaway economic development. I demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that Zenawi’s voodoo economics was built on lies, damned lies and statislies (statistical lies).

But it was in my August 2007 commentary that I made the TPLF an offer they can’t refuse: “If they will stop telling lies about us, I will stop telling the truth about them.

But lies, of course, course in the blood stream of the TPLF. After all the “LF” in TPLF stands for Lie Factory.

The TPLF leaders are pathological liars and they can’t help it. They are congenital mythomaniacs afflicted by “pseudologia fantastica”. Simply stated, they are born liars!

The truth about the fake Donald Trump Tweet

President Donald Trump allegedly tweeted about Ethiopia on October 29, 2019.

On that date, the real President Donald Trump who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania posted 7 tweets in which he: 1) claimed Nancy Pelosi is hellbent on destroying the Republican Party, 2) criticized the Federal Reserve as “clueless”, 3) praised  the rise in consumer confidence and housing sales in the U.S. 4) commended a book entitled, “Plot Against the President”, 4) attacked democrats and demanded to know the identity of whistleblowers”, 5) announced the bagging of the terrorist mastermind Al-Baghdadi, 6) claimed a 95 percent approval rating for the Republican Party and 7) attacking the “corrupt media”.

The absolute dead giveaway the  tweet was bogus is evident in the  fact that the text is boldfaced. Donald Trump has never, never tweeted in boldfaced text.

What is truly mind boggling is the fact that the dozens of diaspora Ethiopia’s crème de la crème who called me about the fake Trump tweet were so happy they were blinded to the tale-tale signs of fakery.

On its face, the “tweet” does not pass the smell test. Take one quick whiff and you can tell it is a fake, a sham, a hoax.

The bogus tweet was manifestly written by one or more arrant ignoramuses,  virtual illiterates. Perhaps it was the work of a group of clever digital manipulators who wanted to demonstrate Ethiopians can be made suckers even with a manifestly ridiculous tweet.

In the tweet, White House is written as “whitehouse”. Ethiopian is written as “Etiopian”. Extremist is written as “extremist”. Groups is written as “gruops“. Intolerant of is phrased “intolerant to”. Immediate actions against is written as “immediate actions to”. Who hold is written as “who holds”. U.S. passport is written as “USA Passport”.

There is no way President Trump would write such a tweet, but so many people bought the bogus tweet hook, line and sinker.

What a lowdown crying shame for so many “intelligent”, “highly educated” and “well-informed” Ethiopians to fall for such a dumb hoax.

Shame on us for being such dupes and suckers!

Digital psycho-terrorists and the necessity for a digital counter-terrorism strategy

Terrorism has been defined as “the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or sub-national groups to obtain a political or social objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims.”

The hallmark of conventional terrorism is the use of violence to cause carnage and destruction and as a consequence spread fear, anxiety, alarm, hate and loathing in the wider population.

Conventional terrorists inflict physical violence with the general aim of destroying the  social capital of a nation, e.g., its unity, norms, values, good will, fellowship, cooperation, etc.

Digital terrorists inflict psychic (mental) violence with the targeted aim of destroying a nation’s social capital, e.g., its unity, norms, values, good will, fellowship, cooperation, etc.

Digital terrorism is a form of psychological warfare (psywar). It is different from cyber terrorism which is a politically motivated attack against information, computer systems, computer programs, and data.

The self-styled social media warriors spreading lies, fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories in Ethiopia are the archetypal digital terrorists. Their aim is to demoralize the general population, crush their self-confidence and confidence in the future and cripple their will and break their resolve to fight or resist.

Their tactic is to brainwash the population, by an unending stream of lies, disinformation and conspiracy theories, into believing their lives are miserable and will remain so. They have no hope for the future because another group is oppressing them. They must defend themselves by preemptive unprovoked attacks against their neighbors.

Their aim is to foster and spread a belief in victimology and nurture a mental state of victimhood. They want people to believe they are victims of the wrongs of their families, neighbors, townsfolks, faith, ethnic brethren and even history.

The dogs of infowars offer no verifiable evidence to support their bogus claims. Yet they  have managed to wreak havoc in the minds and emotion of many unsuspecting Ethiopians.

There are all types of digital psycho-terrorists who use Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other online media to incite violence and spread fear, anxiety, alarm, hate and loathing.

Some of them are well-organized and funded by political groups and call  themselves “digital this or that”. These digital psycho-terrorists are version 2.0 of bush terrorist (listed in the Global Terrorism Data Base) that menaced Ethiopia in the 1980s and created an ethnic apartheid system in over the past 27 years.  They are the O.T.’s (original terrorists) who have passed on the legacy of terrorism to their children who now wage it in cyberspace.

Just as the bush terrorists decades ago used direct physical violence and destruction on local populations to get their way, their children today hide in the digital cyber-bush to inflict psychological terrorism to destroy the hearts and minds of the Ethiopia people.

One  such psycho-digital terrorist group describes itself in its Manifesto as an “invisible digital force without structure” and  “a digital defensive line for the people of Tigray.” It claims to operate on the principle of “one for all and all for one.” It boasts of using “state of the art information technology to wage a digital struggle.”

These are the cyber ghosts of the dethroned kings of ethnic apartheid in Ethiopia hellbent on seeking revenge and digitally plotting to return to power.

Other psycho-digital terrorists are less organized and operate more or less independently guided by communalism, sectarianism and ethnonationalism.

There are many lone wolf psycho-digital terrorist who operate as social media information scavengers (hyenas). They scour social media and the internet for carrion in the form of lies, disinformation and conspiracy theories for redistribution.

The psychological impact of digital psycho-terrorism

In November 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, “’fake news is fueling the Somali regional crisis.”

He advised Ethiopians “not to buy and spread fake news. Let’s not spread fake news because a lot of people are hurt by it. We need to carefully consider the reliability of their sources of information. I ask everyone to be attentive to the spread of fake news.” 

In war, especially in infowars and psychological warfare, truth is the first and last casualty.

The digital psycho-terrorists have weaponized, polarized, tribalized and vulgarized social media to crush truth to earth.

What is fascinating to me is the psychological impact of reality mangled by lies, fake news and propaganda and the invention of alternate reality, an Orwellian  social media parallel universe made up of lies-truth.

In talking to so many Ethiopians from different walks of life, I have made anecdotal observations that nearly all of them suffer from what I call “fear and anxiety induced stress syndrome (FAISS)”, a form of low level post-traumatic stress syndrome that results from constant bombardment by fake news and disinformation on social media.

FAISS victims suffer from shattered self-confidence, feelings of disempowerment, irrational, absurd and foolish thought patterns. Many of them are so desensitized to facts, they are willing to accept whatever nonsense comes their way. They cast critical thinking out the window. They are easily duped and easy to confuse.

Whenever they talk to me about “what’s going on in Ethiopia”, they present panic reactions, mental confusion, grief, anxiety and elevated suspiciousness.

Some are emotionally numbed and express deep grief, emptiness and hopelessness about the fate of Ethiopia.

Some common doom and gloom statements I have heard include:

“Look at all the killing and displacement. Ethiopia has no hope.”

“’They’ are taking over. We are finished.”

“We had so much hope but were tricked and duped.”

“Only God can save Ethiopia now. We are doomed.”

“I could not sleep last night worried about what’s going to happen.”

“He has to do something. If he does not do something, the country will implode in civil war.”

It’s all about defeatism, fatalism and apocalypticism.

Digital psycho-terrorism has denied diaspora Ethiopians peace of mind and induced a state of general malaise among them.

I shall argue the infowar campaigns of the digital psycho-terrorists must be fought with a digital counter-terrorism campaign of truth and facts.

My prescription: “The only way to fight the infowars of fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories is by simply exposing them and educating people with the truth and facts. We must cut off the lying sacks at the Facebook and other social media passes.

As they race to the bottom with their lies, we must race to the top with our facts.

When they go low like snakes in the grass, we must go high with the truth and soar like eagles.

I am putting out a call once again to all Ethiopian social media warriors of good will and good faith to come to the aid of their country in fighting the fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories of digital psycho-terrorists.

“Battle plans” for social media and other online infowars

Those who underestimate the lies, disinformation and conspiracy theories of digital psycho-terrorists are doomed to regret their silence and inaction.

These digital psycho-terrorists are like infectious viruses that live and replicate in the body politic of Ethiopia.

Digital psycho-terrorists are deadly social media pathogen that work by attacking Ethiopia’s political immune system.

Like the HIV virus (Human Immunodeficiency Virus), they are difficult to completely eliminate.

It is necessary to develop multiple anti-retroviral drugs that act on different viral targets of digital psycho-terrorism.

That is precisely what the strategies (cocktail of antiretroviral treatment for digital psycho-terrorism) recommended below are intended to achieve.

Strategy #1: Beat the digital psycho-terrorists at their own game. Convert their fake news/disinformation infowars into a battle of ideas for the truth

“A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”  We must fight the digital psycho-terrorists by exposing their lies, their whole lies and nothing but their lies to the whole world. Our choice of weapon  must be the TRUTH. Digital psycho-terrorists cannot handle the TRUTH. We must fight them by telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about their lies, bare faced lies and damned lies.

Strategy #2: Always use the smell test scavenging for information carrion on social media

Always a simple smell test for any information obtained on social or other media. Factcheck information on Fakebook, Twit-er and YouBoob.

Be skeptical because what walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck on social media is very likely not a duck. It is likely a daylight hyena in  duck feathers. Ethiopians using social media should always take a sniff and determine if they smell a troll rat, or more appropriately a daylight hyena, in what they read and hear.

Strategy #3: Fight herd mentality and group think

Herd mentality can best be described as sheep blindly following the flock no matter where they go just because that’s what the herd is doing.  People act based on emotion instead of logical and rational thinking. They don’t ask questions; they just follow the crowd. Group think can best be described as a process in which individuals hold an opinion in a group believing the group is right.  They agree on an opinion without much questioning, critical reasoning or scrutiny of the evidence. Ignorant people are the easiest to control and manipulate not only because they lack substantive knowledge, but most importantly, because they lack critical thinking skills and do not know how to ask the right questions to get the right answers. So many Ethiopian elites fell for the bogus Trump tweet because they followed the herd; they let the group do the thinking for them.

Strategy #4: Educate people of good will and good faith

Mandela said, “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” Use social media to teach and to empower ordinary people. Use social media to learn and to collaborate for good deeds.

Strategy #5: Overwhelm the negative messages of the digital psycho-terrorists with positive messages

Someone once said, “In every day, there are 1,440 minutes. That means we have 1,440 daily opportunities to make a positive impact.” When we are on Fakebook, Twit-er and the rest for 10 minutes or one hour, let’s make a positive impact on those who read and interact with us.

Strategy #6: Don’t feed the digital trolls

Do not waste time and energy feeding digital trolls. They feed on our anger, sorrow, fear and anxiety. Avoid tit for tat. But try to show them the way of truth and love.

Strategy #7: Develop emotional intelligence

We must develop the ability to identify and manage our own emotions and the emotions of those around us. We must not be Chicken Littles who get all hysterical simply because someone wrote something silly or stupid on social media or put out a YouBoob video. We must develop heightened awareness that we are constant targets of emotional manipulation by digital psycho-terrorists.

Strategy #8: Evil never sleeps and the price of peace of mind from the attacks of digital psycho-terrorists is eternal vigilance

The price of defeating the digital psycho-terrorists is constant awareness and eternal  vigilance. That means we must be relentless, ferocious, implacable, unflinching and single-minded in our struggle against digital terrorists. I have proven the value of defiant tenacity against evil over the past 14 years!

Strategy #9: Never wrestle with digital psycho-terrorists in the social media sewer

Never engage in mudslinging and pissing contests with digital psycho-terrorists.  The old saying about pigs applies equally to digital psycho-terrorists. “Never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.”

Strategy #10: Never fall victim to click-bait YouTube channels

There are a bunch of trashy YouTube (Boob) channels that try to make money by putting provocative titles on their covers. Their aim is to get you to click on their garbage YouTube channels. They make money every time you click and you get heartache and bellyache.

Strategy #11: Practice the old adage: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” 

We should never allow digital psycho-terrorists play tricks on us time and again. Let’s not allow them to make us suckers over and over. We should practice the wisdom of the old saying. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.”

Strategy #12: Practice my policy of mind over matter.

To me, social media cretins are a source of laughter and entertainment. I visit social media from time to time to observe how the dregs of humanity think or don’t. It is a matter of mind over matter for me. I don’t mind social media cretins and creeps and they don’t matter.  

A call to “white hat” social media warriors

For the last 14 years, I have fought the Forces of Darkness and social media psycho-terrorists in my weekly commentaries. I fought their lies, fake news, disinformation, conspiracy theories every week (sometimes several times a week) without missing a single week.

Today, the Forces of Darkness have reinvented themselves as digital psycho-terrorists propagating their message of hate, division, chaos and confusion.

I am calling on all “white hat” Ethiopian social media warriors to join me in fighting digital psycho-terrorists and cyber-thugs on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and in blogosphere and everywhere in cyberspace.

We must fight digital psycho-terrorists in the schools, in the colleges and universities, in the internet cafes, in the conference rooms, in the streets, in the urban and rural areas, in places of worship and public gatherings, and in every hamlet, village, town and city.

Let’s join forces and fight the Forces of Darkness and digital terrorists propagating fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories against Ethiopia!

Fool us once, shame on digital psycho-terrorists. Fool us twice, shame on us!

Ad Victoriam!

The post DIGITAL PSYCHO-TERRORISTS’ INFOWARS ON ETHIOPIA: Fool Me Once, Shame on You. Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me! appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.


The elasticated demands of ethnic extremists and the malarkey given by the government

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By Tibebe. Birihan

The constant sermon like parlance by the PM doesn’t seem to be holding the same resonance it once had. People are becoming increasingly circumspect of what is orated by their Nobel Prize winning PM and looking for answers to the monumental problems the country is facing elsewhere. The pain felt and the trauma caused by the recent debacle in the Oromia Region, the massacre in Jigjiga and the wanton destructions and persecutions in Sidama Zone are glaring dissensions that exacerbate the already paranoid national sentiment. The lullaby of the PM is now having difficulty to calm the nation.

The center of gravity for all the havoc seem to once again circle around the way the Federation is structured and the manner in which “Oromo Question” is framed and tried to be resolved. Notwithstanding the involvement of ethnic entrepreneurs who are bent on manufacturing and fueling of crisis for their group and individual gains, we need to dig beneath the facade to shed light on the true aspirations of the Oromo people as political and cultural entity. As such, we need to distill the noise from the legitimate quest of the people and properly manage to get to a solution that is a win-win for the Oromo people and the country at large.

Despite its botched implementation, the federalization of the country as it stands now somehow crudely seemed to address the pillars of not only the of Oromo question but also of those ethnicities which have perceived to have been disadvantaged throughout the long existence of the Ethiopian state. The constitution as crafted by the few ethnic lords at the outset and its selective application subsequently has created problems that now are complicating the already sensitive issues. When TPLF aided by EPLF as victors against the Dergu Marxist junta came to control Menilik Palace, it took the shortest path of rewarding itself substantially at the expense of the country. It legalized its bounty through unacceptable constitutional means as possibly as it could and went on to be the “godfather” to the rest of the country for close to three decades. Further narrowing the political field at the inception, TPLF kicked out OLF and sidelined other political forces which were thought to be the genuine representatives of their respective constituencies and established its hegemony that further solidified the marginalization of true representations.

At the backdrop of all these, what slowly evolved is the increasing ethnic polarization of the various groups and widespread feelings of insecurity and hopelessness by significant portion of the country. These conditions necessitated a great desire by the people to free them from the colonial style of TPLF discriminatory ethnic oligarchy regime and finally brought the system to the brink. The TPLF dominated reign with its insatiable greed and one-sided overly self-aggrandizing propensity relegated others to the level of serfdom. The inhuman way they treated their opponents and the gruesome torchers they constantly inflicted on their victims, further created the fertile ground for the rest of the country to face this alien entity head on and be done away with it at any cost.

On the cusps of these, there came some relief with the coming to the helm by the PM Abiy and his reformist colleagues. Despite the fact that the PM is also a member of the umbrella party EPRDF, the larger section of the society was very ecstatic and supportive of the transfer of power to the new PM. Unexpected by the larger public, the glorifying of the country by the PM in his acceptance speech on his inauguration day and his pontification that “We are Ethiopian when we live and we will be Ethiopia when we die” brought resurgence of hope to unite the severely divided country.

What made the Extremist Oromo ethnic politicians to stand suspicious of the PM who hailed from Oromia is a question that we all need to ponder on. By every practical measure, the current government is fast replicating the one it chased out by planting en-mass ethnic Oromos in place of Tigreans. The previous semblance of balancing federal government position appointments is now given its way to anchoring Oromos as fast as practically possible.  Despite all of these measures by the Abiy administration, the ever elastic demands of these extremist Oromo parties are nowhere to be nearly satisfied. They have now started to openly articulate their determination to see a confederated Ethiopia and the complete ownership of the Capital City of Addis; they seem to be heading in a direction to contravene against the spirit of the constitution they espouse as untouchable. These extreme ethnic parties continuously seem to move the goal post by creating demands that are contrary to what they accentuate as official party positions thereby deliberately clouding their true intentions. They try to frame the debate as if between unionists’ vs federalists and creating a murky understanding around their true intentions while knowing fully well that there is no any movement that is standing to support the phantom unionist camp.

If we are to argue from the notion that the seemingly ambiguous discourse between ODP and the Oromo extreme ethnic adherents is about federalism vs Unionist, we are missing the very critical ingredient about the very grotesque motives of the so called Federalists spearheaded by TPLF. Their oblivion about the cost of their nativist ambitions and the danger it causes for the country to stand as one polity is a glaring testament about their nefarious plots. Such reckless ambitions and their ever dynamic ploy together with the bold move they are making to realize their dream are now greatly contributing in diminishing the wherewithal of the society that has been built through centuries of co-existence. The open campaign of hate in sync by these parties against a particular group of the society for their shared reckless desires is now shrinking the ground for meaningful compromise. The constant inability or willful negligence of the government to bring about law and order and worse yet, camouflaging such inabilities as cost of nurturing democracy is further eroding the thread holding the nation together.  Cooperation is replaced by unhealthy competition, mutual respect has now been replaced by mutual suspicion, and working together has given its way to working against each other, common country vision is ransacked by narrow ethic nightmare. The constant unimaginable savageries of the mobs in attacking innocent civilians are further indications that our social wherewithal is fast dwindling and giving way for breaking the country apart.

As witnessed recently the practical abdication of their duty by the Oromia security establishment in protecting the lives and properties of citizens in the face of widespread brutality and ethnic cleansing targeting minorities in the Region is nothing but a cue for something larger and sinister. What seems to have been construed as tacit encouragement of the rowdy provocateurs by the same security establishment further cements the suspicions that the establishments has been percolated by ethnic extremists. This aberration, whether perceived or imagined, sets perfect precondition for people who firsthand witnessed the inaction by the authorities to arm themselves and protect their family and properties. Such conditions feed off of each other and potentially could end up leading us to a complete breakdown of law and order thereby precipitating a widespread unrest and bloody civil war.

 

The lateness by the PM in addressing the deadly ethnic targeted killings and, the characterization of the mayhem as simple clashes has now casted its heavy shadow if indeed the PM is equally a leader to all citizens of the country. The immediate action taken by the PM and his top officials of trying to preserve the unity of their base as opposed to consoling the victims and assuring the nervous country by bringing those perpetrators to face the law is now compounding the confusion felt by the wider public in this despondent nation. The continuous malarkey given by the officials is further emboldening zealots and fast eating away the confidence the super majority of the country have on their government. Such timidity of the administration is also further emboldening the perpetrators to continue their brazen demands and perpetuate their cruel actions as justifiable means towards their targeted end.  Unless such trends are corrected swiftly and law and order are restored, the once seemed infallible PM and his reformist mantra are doomed to fail and biblical proportion gloom to befallen on the country.

 

The writer could be reached at tbirihan@yahoo.com

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A Make-or-Break Moment Nears for Ethiopia’s Political Transformation

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Opposition protesters gather outside Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s home in Addis Ababa on Oct. 24. Roughly 78 people were killed when protests against the government’s alleged mistreatment of a prominent opposition activist turned violent last month.
(STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Hard-line regionalism and interethnic violence will likely surge in the run-up to Ethiopia’s May 2020 elections as competing groups increasingly clash for power.
  • Should Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed fail to unite his unpopular ruling coalition, it will weaken his government’s ability to defeat opposition parties that could temporarily derail his liberalization efforts.
  • The potential for escalating political violence in the coming months, however, could ultimately force Abiy’s administration to scrap the 2020 vote altogether, further hurting its legitimacy.

Since rising to power in April 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has already overseen several impressive victories — the opening of Ethiopia’s media and political environments being hailed as one of his biggest. His efforts to “achieve peace and international cooperation,” including opening Ethiopia’s relations with long-time enemy Eritrea, even earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in recent weeks. But unfortunately for Ethiopia’s new leader, no amount of accolades will protect him from the bitter campaign his regional rivals are gearing up for ahead of elections slated for May 2020.

The Big Picture

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ongoing efforts to open Ethiopia to the world have captured the imaginations of foreign governments and investors alike. But recent increases in ethnic violence have ratcheted up fears that the country is being torn apart at the seams. Whether Addis Ababa can hold the country together before elections in May 2020 will serve as a litmus test for its ambitious economic and political liberalization push.

The Violent Price of Progress

On a continent where authoritarian leaders still abound, Abiy has given rise to hopes that Ethiopia might soon become Africa’s next big success story. As part of this push, the prime minister confirmed in October that the country will, as promised, hold free and fair elections in May 2020. But there are concerns that Ethiopia’s budding democracy may be crumbling beneath the weight of escalating political violence.

Interethnic violence in Ethiopia soared to sky-high levels under Abiy’s predecessor, forcing millions of citizens to flee their homes. But recent efforts to improve the situation have lagged amid the increasingly virulent rhetoric of the country’s ethnic and religious hard-liners. At the heart of this dispute is a brewing battle over what political system Ethiopia should have: one based on greater centralization, or one based on more decentralized ethnic federalism. When it comes to the former, years of authoritarian leadership have bred deep mistrust of centralized rule, particularly among the country’s youth and several prominent ethnic groups.

Ethiopia's Ethnic Regional States

As a result of local frustrations, key parties in the country’s longtime ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), are now wildly unpopular in their local constituencies. Abiy’s Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Amhara Democratic Party, in particular, are both viewed by their respective regional populations in Oromo and Amhara as subservient to a largely unresponsive and corrupt political machine in Addis Ababa. Indeed, if elections were held today, these EPRDF parties would likely lose to regional opposition groups, thus threatening the prime minister and his allies’ control over the country.

A Hail Mary Rebrand

To avoid such a catastrophe, Abiy is now scrambling to unify the EPRDF’s coalition parties — which also include the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of the Tigray region and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement of the Southern region — into a single party called the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP). The strategy behind this bold move is threefold:

  • It rebrands the EPRDF’s unpopular coalition parties by shedding his government’s association with the former regime.
  • It steers power away from regional governments and toward a more centrally governed Ethiopia.
  • It provides Abiy with his own national platform to run on instead of relying on his shaky regional support in Oromia.

However, getting all of these coalition parties on board won’t be easy. The TPLF, for one, had been the dominant military and political force in Ethiopia for 25 years before protests in Oromo and Amhara eventually paved the way for Abiy’s rise. And since then, Abiy’s administration has largely undermined Ethiopia’s formerly Tigray-dominant system, which has naturally created a lot of enemies for the prime minister in the region. The TPLF has thus held out on joining Abiy’s EPP, likely in an attempt to extract a better deal. But even Abiy’s own party, the ODP, has resisted signing on to the rebrand, probably out of fear that unification would only increase the Oromo population’s mistrust of the party.

Such concerns are warranted, as Abiy’s EPP proposal is high-risk and doesn’t necessarily guarantee his political survival. Should the prime minister beat the odds and eventually succeed in unifying the ruling party, he will probably win votes in the large cities such as Addis Ababa, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, Dire Dawa and Harar, as well as among small ethnic groups that feel threatened by the shift of power toward Oromos. But whether that will be enough to drown out the hard-line ethnocentrism being peddled by rising opposition parties is far from certain. On the flip side, failure to unify could result in an even weaker and more fragmented ruling coalition that could collapse, further slimming the chances that EPRDF could muster enough votes to pull off a victory in May.

Pressing Pause on Liberalization

Should his party lose the 2020 vote, Abiy has promised that his administration would peacefully hand over the reins. Such a scenario would initially open the floodgates to a raft new parties all vying for control in Addis Ababa — throwing the country’s ongoing economic and political liberalization process into question. But while this shift may spook investors at first, Ethiopia’s lawmakers will likely return to finish Abiy’s job.

From the country’s stubbornly high inflation rates and ongoing foreign exchange shortages (among other systemic distortions), the country has arguably outgrown its developmental state model. Whatever power players end up rising to the top will eventually find that liberalization is the only way to jump-start Ethiopia’s private sector and create more jobs for their desperate constituents. This reality will thus likely compel the new leaders (save for those from the Tigray-dominated system) to continue building out the private sector as the new engine of growth, while cutting the enormous amount of red tape suffocating the country’s economy.

An Economic Snapshot of Ethiopia

But as Abiy fights for his political survival ahead of the 2020 polls, there are signs that his economic reforms and liberalization efforts have already taken a backseat to the country’s angst-ridden political climate and surging violence. Abiy’s attempted EPRDF merger and other eleventh-hour efforts to secure reelection are increasingly sucking up the time of Ethiopia’s policymakers. While not overtly stated, the political games occupying Addis Ababa’s attention were almost certainly behind its decision to forgo attending several recent high-level affairs, most notably including the recent Africa Investment Forum in Johannesburg.

This focus on politics over investment promotion will likely continue until after Ethiopia holds its election. Moreover, should the polls yield any ensuing instability (such as a lack of clarity over who controls the government), it could further derail liberalization efforts for the foreseeable future — possibly causing Ethiopia to miss out on capitalizing on a notable uptick in foreign investment interest in the country and the broader Horn of Africa region.

Preparing for Battle

Serious questions exist over whether Ethiopia can even pull off free and fair elections in 2020 given the country’s dire security outlook. The violence has recently become so acute that Ethiopia now tops the list of countries with the most internally displaced persons in the world. But perhaps even more worrying is how renewed clashes often thwart government efforts to resettle the millions of Ethiopians seeking shelter from the chaos.

As the election edges closer, however, the highest risk of violence will be during the campaign season. Deadly attacks and clashes have already occurred, and there are signs the situation will worsen. Ethiopian authorities have noted serious upticks in the number of weapons flowing into the capital of Addis Ababa, even as they step up efforts to halt the illicit arms trade. But this problem is also no doubt brewing elsewhere as rival ethnic groups start battening down the hatches ahead of the election. Thousands of weapons have so far been seized in the country’s east and west. And there are reports that the increasingly militarized population in the Amhara region is acquiring firearms from nearby Sudan.

Ethiopia’s eager young leader has found himself lodged between a rock and a hard place — the rock being his democratic desires, and the place being the reality of Ethiopian politics.

This increasingly dangerous security climate would make it all but impossible to hold truly “free and fair” elections in May. And there are few signs that the government will be able to effectively stabilize the situation before then. But despite these risks, Abiy will still be wary of scrapping the elections altogether, as the ballot box is the only place where his administration can obtain the popular mandate it needs to legitimize its rule. Then again, such a mandate will only be viewed as legitimate if it is born of an equally legitimate election — that is, one not held against the backdrop of intimation campaigns, polling booth attacks and bloody political clashes that could ensue should Ethiopia succumb to a preelection melee.

Suffice it to say that Ethiopia’s eager young leader has found himself lodged between a rock and a hard place — the rock being his democratic desires, and the place being the reality of Ethiopian politics. But in his brief time in power, Abiy has already opened Ethiopians’ eyes to the potential of a liberalized future. And by planting that seed, his successors will be hard-pressed to go back to the way things were.

The post A Make-or-Break Moment Nears for Ethiopia’s Political Transformation appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

Abiy has made peace with the devil himself

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By wondemagne ejigu

The Norwegian Nobel Committee have announced that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for 2019. The motive is that he has concluded an historic peace agreement with neighbouring country Eritrea. In fact, Abiy is fully in line with Eritrean President Isayas Afwerki. They have a plan together and it is not rosy. The peacemaker Abiy has made peace with the devil himself on the Horn of Africa.

The Eritrean state was founded in 1993 after over 30 years of civil war against the sitting government in Addis Ababa. Isayas Afwerki became part of the guerrilla in the late 60´s. He founded the EPLF which came to smash the previously dominant guerrilla ELF. He sought total control over guerrilla operations and therefor he had to get rid of the ELF guerrilla to achieve this goal. In the background, Afwerki had good contacts with the Ethiopian regime, all the way back to Haile Selassie’s time in power. Afwerki’s idea was to work to destabilize the forces that could really establish a strong and free Eritrea. His goal was not to do any good to the Eritreans in accordance with the original endeavours of liberty. He wanted to reunite Ethiopia and Eritrea where he himself would be a leader. He knew then that it was necessary to quell the guerrilla operations from the inside.

The cruelty of his efforts is hard to take in. Only the consummate psychopath can systematically and purposefully betray his own country and plague his own population. Thoughts on Stalin’s methods are close at hand. He is the only person to hold the presidential post in Eritrea since 1993. He has fought against former Ethiopian leaders, leading to the death of at least 100,000 soldiers. The war has been staged with the pretext of saving the country, but it has really been about that former Ethiopian leaders did not follow Afwerki in his world of ideas. With Abiy Ahmed, he has found an ally with whom it was possible to make peace with, and in a long term fulfil the disastrous plan to dissolve his own country.

Abiy took office in 2018. During his short tenure, the country has approached complete disintegration. The autonomy of the regions is threatened by the ongoing centralist politics and dissatisfaction has reached the boiling point. The media man Jawar Mohamed is a leader of an originally popular protests on the part of the Oromo people. Oromo is the largest province in terms of population in the country. These protests have evolved against increasing extremism and violence. Clashes with government forces led to at least 67 deaths this week, most of which were activists. Serious acts of violence occur from both sides. Originally, Jawar and Abiy were allies and Jawar helped Abiy to power. Now they stand on each side and fight each other. Clearly, ethnonationalist trends exist in Jawar’s politics. This challenges Abiy, who is also from the Oromo people. Abiy wants continued control over the Oromo province and its population without interference from aggressive jumper Jawar Mohamed. But Abiy’s plan is to cater to the interests of both large groups of people, the other being Amhara. A kind of triangulation game with the goal of putting as much power as possible in his own office.

An important symbolic act was to raise a statue of the fallen Emperor Haile Selassie in Addis Ababa. Selassie’s totalitarian rule is the basis of the popular dissatisfaction that has led to today’s autonomy in the regions and a formally free Eritrea. Now the pendulum has started to swing back. In addition, he acts as a political entity with Afwerki, which is more than ominous. Eritrea’s status as an independent state is urgently threatened in the devastated country. The goal is a reunification of the two countries, which in practice means that the Eritrean people will fall into submission.

Abiy is a small tile in a big game where the US and Saudi Arabia play important roles in strengthening control over the Horn of Africa. The idea of the noble peacemaker who introduced social reforms is an advanced game for the gallery that has duped an entire world. Swedish media has swallowed the bait fully. No one has made an effort to bring to light the dark truth of this power play. It is a too nice story to be revealed simply.

Nevertheless, this Abiy has now been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. It is time to realize that the price has now been devalued to zero and that it should be put down for a period to be able to resurrect after a few years, with a new transparent Nobel Committee with integrity.

Lars-Eric Gustafson

Operation Enough

The post Abiy has made peace with the devil himself appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

“OK, Hippos!”, Growled Ethiopia’s (Abo Shemanes) Cheetahs

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By Prof. Alemayehu G. Mariam

… Ethiopia’s Cheetah Generation is the only generation that could rescue Ethiopia from the steel claws of T-TPLF tyranny and dictatorship. It is the only generation that can deliver Ethiopia from the venomous fangs of a benighted dictatorship and sweep away a decaying and decomposing garrison state built on a foundation of lies and corruption into the dustbin of history. Alemayehu G. Mariam, “2013: Year of the Cheetah Generation”.

… Above all, I regard you as the leader of Ethiopia’s youth. That said, know that I am in your corner and got your back. Alemayehu G. Mariam, expressing full support for Abiy Ahmed after he was appointed prime minister on April 2, 2018.

Author’s Note: Every time there is some disturbance in Ethiopia, a parade of pseudo-patriots, pseudo-intellectuals, pseudo-activists, pseudo-political leaders and ye dil atbiya arbegnoch (heroes who show up on the eve of victory and take credit for the battle won), wannabe revolutionaries and warriors take to social media, YouTube and the blogosphere to lecture, hector and pontificate to the younger generation of leaders in Ethiopia.

I wonder why they do that.

Could it be that they think the disturbances will turn into civil war giving them an opportunity to sneak into power? Could it be that they want to be recognized as prophets of a coming Apocalypse in Ethiopia so that they can proclaim, “I told you so!”? Could it be that they believe if they show up as wolves in sheep’s clothing no one will recognize they are has-been wolves toothless, witless and hopeless today? Could it be that they believe no one can recognize a hyena in daylight? Could it be that they want to justify their miserably failed lives by belittling and denigrating Ethiopia’s young leaders? Could it be that they are engaged in self-delusion that anyone will listen to what they have to say knowing who they really are? Maybe they enjoy shouting fire where there is no fire just to see people crushed in a stampede.

Perhaps all of the foregoing questions could be answered in the affirmative.

When old men with checkered pasts take to the pulpit to preach the gospel of human rights, rule of law, justice, good governance and leadership integrity, I laugh at them.

I laugh at them because there is no fool like an old fool.

It has been said, “Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test.”

These old men had absolute power and absolute power corrupted them.

Now they show up to bear holy witness.

These old men remind me of Antonio’s admonition in Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice”:

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!”

“Ok, Hippos”, spare us the sermons, homilies, tirades and tongue-lashing.

Ethiopia’s youth are Ethiopia’s last great hope!

Last week, Chlöe Swarbrick, the 25-year-old Green Party New Zealand lawmaker during floor debate zapped and swatted her quinquagenarian (those between 50-59 years old) colleagues with two words that have now become the shibboleth of millennials everywhere. Swarbrick discoursed on the betrayal of her generation:

Mr. Speaker, how many world leaders, for how many decades have seen and known what is coming but have decided that it is more politically expedient to keep it behind closed doors. My generation and the generations after me do not have that luxury. In the year 2050, I will be 56 years old. Yet, right now, the average age of this 52nd Parliament is 49 years old.

When one of her colleagues heckled her because he did not like the generational indictment, she nonchalantly launched the lexical equivalent of a Javelin anti-tank missile, “Ok, boomer” and shut him up cold, and kept on talking unfazed.

“Boomer” refers to the “baby boomer” generation of Americans born after between 1946 and 1964.

Swarbrick’s repartee targeted baby boomers’ self-centeredness, self-righteousness, greed, arrogance, ignorance, cowardice and lack of vision and foresight.

I call Ethiopia’s “baby boomers” (born between 1943-1970), the Hippo Generation.

Of course, there are younger, elderly, senior and downright comatose Hippos.

Anyone under 40 in Ethiopia is a member of the Cheetah Generation in my book.

The metaphor of “Cheetahs and Hippos” (Abo Shemanes and Gumarees) was first introduced by George Ayittey, the distinguished Ghanaian economist and human rights advocate.

Ayittey argued African “Hippos are of the 1960s-era mentality — stodgy, pudgy, and wedded to the old ‘colonialism-imperialism’ paradigm with an abiding faith in the potency of the state.

He described Africa’s “Cheetah Generation” as “Africa’s new hope”. They are “a new and angry generation of young African graduates and professionals, who look at African issues and problems from a totally different and unique perspective. They brook no nonsense about corruption, inefficiency, ineptitude, incompetence, or buffoonery.”

Ethiopia’s Hippos Generation has a big problem with Ethiopia’s Cheetah Generation currently transforming and uplifting the country from the miry pit of 27-years of dictatorship and ethnic apartheid to multiparty democracy and national unity.

For the past nearly 14 years, I have been talking of Ethiopia’s youth, Cheetah Generation, as the only salvation of Ethiopia.

I am proud to say that I have been the foremost champion of Ethiopian youth since I joined the Ethiopian human rights movement in 2005.

I have defended them, advocated for them and stood up for them when they were being massacred by the ethnic apartheid TPLF regime.

In 2006, following the Meles Massacres of 2005, I gave prudent advice to Ethiopia’s young people and told Ethiopia’s older generation to help “prepare the youth for leadership and chart the course of Ethiopia’s destiny.”

In April 2007, I declared Ethiopia’s young people are the only ones who could save Ethiopia from the forest fire started by the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front:

My favorite people in the world are young people, young Ethiopians and Ethiopian Americans. They are the most courageous, audacious, tenacious and passionate Ethiopians I know. God bless them all! They are the only ones who can fight this fire and put it out. The rest of us are water carriers.

But our young people in Ethiopia are in the fire, and on the firing line every day. They are shot down like rabid dogs if they protest. They are jailed if they speak their minds. They are harassed if they are considered disloyal. They disappear if they are considered subversive.

On August 20, 2012, the day Meles Zenawi’s death was announced, I published a commentary declaring, “It is now time for Ethiopia’s cheetahs to take a leading role in the national dialogue to transition Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy.” I explained without mincing words:

Why MUST Ethiopia’s cheetahs lead the national dialogue for a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy? First, if the cheetahs do not initiate the dialogue, who will? Who can? The hippos have been dialoguing for decades using the language of finger pointing, mudslinging, hatemongering and grudge holding. Second, the future belongs to the cheetahs (an estimated 67 percent of Ethiopia’s population is said to be under the age of 35) and not the hippos who continue to wallow in the muddy politics of ethnicity and sectarianism.

In my January 2013 commentary, I declared:

Ethiopia’s Cheetah Generation is the only generation that could rescue Ethiopia from the steel claws of T-TPLF tyranny and dictatorship. It is the only generation that can deliver Ethiopia from the venomous fangs of a benighted dictatorship and sweep away a decaying and decomposing garrison state built on a foundation of lies and corruption into the dustbin of history.

I issued an “injunction”:

Ethiopia’s Hippo Generation must move over and make way for the Cheetahs. Ethiopia’s Hippo Generation is not only astigmatic with distorted vision, it is also myopic and narrow- minded preoccupied with mindless self-aggrandizement. The Hippos in power are stuck in the quicksand of divisive ethnic politics and the bog of revenge politics. Ethiopia’s intellectual Hippos by and large have chosen to stand on the sidelines with arms folded, ears plugged, mouths  sealed shut and eyes blindfolded. They have broken faith with the youth.

In my December 2013 commentary, Mandela’s Message to Ethiopia’s Youth: Never give up…!”, I said Mandela’s message to Ethiopia’s youth would be to “dare to be great, change yourself before you change society, be virtuous, patriotic, courageous, optimistic, dream big, educate the people, do good, forgive and reconcile.”

In my January 2014 commentary, I called for a Chee-Hippo (half Cheetah, half Hippo) Generation to rise up. I urged

“formal and informal conversation between Cheetahs and Hippos across all forums–  from the dinner table to the halls of academia, from churches and mosques to civic associations. We need to have dialogues to question old ideas, keep the good ones and discard the rest, to change old, narrow-minded and counterproductive patterns of thinking, generate fresh new ideas about politics, government and society and brainstorm and generate innovative and creative solutions to persistent socio-political problems.

In September 2016, I gave an interview explaining my supreme confidence in Ethiopia’s youth despite contentions little can be expected from them.

In my February 2016 commentary, “A Special ‘Message in a Bottle, to Ethiopian Cheetahs” I issued a “challenge to every Ethiopian Cheetah to become an ‘Ethiopian Imagineer’ — an architect, a designer, an inventor, a surveyor, a builder and entrepreneur of a free Ethiopian society whose citizens are more concerned about each other’s humanity than their own ethnicity; an Ethiopia of equal opportunity; an Ethiopia free of corruption, oppression and thugtatorship.”

In my August 2016 commentary, I declared, “Ethiopia’s youth united can never be defeated. The yearning of youth for freedom and change is self-evident. The only question is whether the country’s youth will seek change through increased militancy or by other peaceful means.”

Ethiopia’s youth won in 2018!

People who live in houses with no walls and no roofs should not throw stones

Over the past couple of weeks, I have been following the misadventures of some incorrigible Ethiopian Hippos online with amusement and dismay.

They seem to have crawled out of the woodwork to wage a vilification campaign against H.E. Prime Minster Dr. Abiy Ahmed.

It appears they came out swinging believing PM Abiy’s days were numbered following some disturbances in the country.

They thought they could position themselves for a power grab when all hell broke loose in Ethiopia.

The accusations and denunciations of these Hippos are vile and hateful, full of jealousy and spite.

I could best describe their campaign of fear and smear against PM Abiy in the words of Shakespeare’s Pisanio:

No, ’tis slander,
Whose edge is sharper than the sword, whose tongue
Outvenoms all the worms of Nile, whose breath
Rides on the posting winds and doth belie
All corners of the world…

The self-declared “13th apostle” strikes back!

One of the individuals spitting venom on PM Abiy and the peaceful change in Ethiopia is a man who claimed to have met God in prison literally (but did not shake his hand), declared himself virtually the “13th apostle” and publicly renounced politics.

This man who is hectoring and dictating to PM Abiy and Ethiopia Cheetah Generation is none other than the man who forced a schism (a deep division) in the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church).

In January 2009, this man admitted to American diplomatic officials that he personally “signed the official order that removed the original patriarch” and split the Church in two creating great pain, anguish and destruction.

It was Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who finally brought a healing to the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church in July 2018.  

The same individual was convicted of corruption and sentenced to 18 years after he was found guilty of “stashing a state fund worth $16 million in his personal Swiss bank account”.

This money was acquired in a  shakedown of the “richest man in Ethiopia” under the pretext of paying the debt of the Ethiopian government.

At the time of the corruption charges, the same man admitted in parliament he had been repeatedly advised not to engage in corrupt practices but simply ignored the advice and  continued to ply his trade in corruption.

There is no question same man opened three bank accounts in Switzerland to stash the $16 million.

In October 1998, Switzerland handed over some details of bank accounts to Ethiopia during the  corruption prosecution of this man.

In March 2000, BBC reported, Swiss authorities returned $8m of the illicit deposit to Ethiopia.

In a 2003 report, the BBC reported, “The Swiss Justice Ministry said that the amounts deposited in the bank accounts in Geneva ‘relate exclusively to a part of the embezzled loan (and) there is no link between the sequestered assets and the other crimes … committed by [defendant] and his co-offenders.”

This same man goes around claiming he was convicted for political reasons.

But since he has been free and living in America for over a decade, he has never challenged the credibility of the evidence used to convict him of stashing millions of dollars in his personal bank accounts.

Never has this man said a single word of criticism about Meles Zenawi, the man who “unjustly” jailed him for 12 years.

This man said he would write a book about the injustices inflicted upon him by his former comrades-turned jailors. 

But he chose to remain silent against those who humiliated and dehumanized him.

Now he wags his tongue against the man who showed him great respect and appreciation when he returned to Ethiopia in 2018.   

In 1991, the same individual was in power and turned a blind eye “during the time many Amharas were slaughtered in Arbagugu and in Bedno.”

When this man was prime minister, he went to Somali region and told the people, “You are now free. Teach the neftegnas in your midst who call you ‘camel followers’ what you can do.”

The president of the region chastised him, “We have lived with our neighbors for a long time. We know how to relate with each other.” This was evidence related to me by an eyewitness.

After this man was released from prison in 2008, he made the rounds of televangelism networks and in so many words declared he was the 13th apostle (move over St. Matthias).

This man said when he was released from prison his days of politics are behind him and he will dedicate the remained of his to the service of God:

… It was in the fifth year that God appeared to me in a prison cell. He looks like he [is] made of light. The whole thing of him was light. It was not in dreams or visions, mind you. He just appeared in front of me and said, “Follow me. I am Jesus. Believe in me and follow me.”

Today, instead of following Jesus, the 13th apostle is persecuting the very individuals who are doing Jesus’ work of love, forgiveness and reconciliation.

Jesus speaking about hypocrites said, “These people honor me with their lips, but their hearts are far from me.” Mark 7:6.

What does it profit a man to point an accusatory finger at another when three fingers are pointing at him?

Or as Jesus taught, “And why worry about a speck in your friend’s eye when you have a log in your own? Matthew 7:3.

Boy who keeps crying wolf

There is an Ethiopian proverb, “A wolf monk prays amidst a flock of sheep.”

There is a story about the  “Boy Who Cried Wolf” in Aesop’s Fables.

The shepherd boy would cry “wolf” when the there is no wolf and scare out the villagers only to laugh at them.

Just like the proverbial boy who cried wolf, there are some Ethiopian Hippos who have been crying “Civil War” and “Failed State” for years.

This past April, I wrote about Ethiopia’s Chicken Littles, Prophets of Doom and Gloom and Masters of Fear and Smear.

I will not repeat myself here.

But I wonder.

Just like the boy who cried wolf, do these wolves in sheep’s clothing really want to see civil war and state failure in Ethiopia?

Do they think a military coup will bring democracy or a transition to democracy in  Ethiopia as they have often advocated?

What is amusing to me is that they keep turning up like a bad penny.

I don’t know what motivates these dinosaur hippos to become prophets of doom and gloom.

Are they desperately trying to remain relevant?

The fact of the matter is that when they were in power, they perpetrated evil on an epic scale with their military confederates.

They were part of the core leadership of the regime that unleashed the Red Terror massacres in Ethiopia in 1976-77.

Then they went through acts of contrition and expiation for the sins they have committed.

Then they shed tears, “Red Tears”.

But what we saw were “Crocodile Tears” rolling down their cheeks.

I am sick and tired of Ethiopia’s Hippo Generation crying out, “The sky is falling” and spinning tales of cynicism and defeatism.

I am sick and tired of Ethiopia’s Hippo Generation bitching about all the things PM Abiy is not doing.

I am sick and tired of Ethiopia’s Hippo Generation slithering out of their underground lairs to preach their gospel of pessimism, cynicism, defeatism and negativism.

Why don’t they come up with their proposals and solutions to solve Ethiopia’s political, economic and social problems?

PM Abiy came up with his solution by proposing a philosophy of “Medemer”?

They did not even have the guts and intellect to read his book and challenge him on his ideas. But they have time to moan and groan.

What is their philosophy? “Philosophy of Moaning, Groaning and Victimology”?

I don’t want to be misunderstood. No political leader is above criticism.

I would not mind if they criticize PM Abiy by coming up with their plan to solve any of the myriad problems faced by Ethiopians.

I would cheer them on and stand on their side if they were to deliver a comprehensive  plan of action to compete with PM Abiy’s.

I would cheer them on and stand on their side if they presented a comprehensive plan for constitutional revision.

I would cheer them on and stand on their side if they came up with a plan to deal with youth unemployment, shortage in hard currency, attracting foreign direct investment, dealing with the dire food shortage throughout the country.

But these deceitful windbags are incapable of putting their ideas to paper.

But they are quick to pontificate and blow hot air over the achievements and any proposals made by PM Abiy.

I know why the Hippos groan and grunt

I will tell it like it is.

After all, I am the guy who proclaims “Speaking Truth to Power” as masthead on his website.

There are two things that scare the hell out of tired old Ethiopian Hippos.

First, they are scared to death PM Abiy will succeed and bring a measure of peace, reconciliation and hope to Ethiopia.

Second, they believe if PM Abiy succeeds, they are doomed to fail. Their ambition for power, fame, fortune and glory goes up in smoke.

The Ethiopian Hippos, Chicken Littles, Doomsdayers and prophets of doom and gloom love to hate PM Abiy because they

desperately want to establish a gerontocracy (government by old geezers).

believe the only system that works in Ethiopia is a kraterocracy/stratocracy (rule by the strong/military).

are criminal and corrupt thugs who are scared to death they will be held accountable for their crimes and corruption.

are hungry and thirsty for power and want other people to do the heavy lifting and dying for them to get into power.

are wannabe leaders who can only mislead and lead innocent citizens to the graveyard.

expected a position and a job in PM Abiy’s administration but did not get it because they have nothing of value to offer.

seek access to manipulate PM Abiy and put him in their pocket but are unable to do so.

suffer from a debilitating inferiority complex.

feel PM Abiy has ignored them or not given them enough attention.

wanted PM Abiy to “take action” by ordering mass arrests, mass incarcerations, mass persecutions and massacres so that his hand, like theirs, is soaked in the blood of innocents.

jealous of his meteoric rise and is the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

are members of the coma generation (brain dead).

festoon their names with acronyms of higher education but have not done a damn thing to help or stand up for their people.

are windbags who spend their time gossiping.

don’t know what time it is. (It’s time for change.)

are intimidated by PM Abiy’s prodigious intellect and forensic powers.

are losers in life, in their professions and in their political ambitions.

are villains pretending to be heroes.

Why I have supported Abiy Ahmed from Day #1

Let me say that I understand why the Hippos are going after PM Abiy.

I understand their coordinated strategy to scandalize, delegitimize and dehumanize PM Abiy regardless of what he does or does not do.

I get it.

But they will not get away with it without a a stiff rejoinder.

BTW, by providing this rejoinder, I am not violating my standard operating policy: “It is a matter of mind over matter. I don’t mind and they don’t matter.”

I just like to speak truth to wolves in sheep skin, daylight hyenas and comatose hippos.

As far as I know, I am the first person to publicly and unreservedly endorse Abiy Ahmed when he was appointed prime minister on April 2, 2018.

On April 8, 2018, I wrote a commentary and gave PM Abiy my full support.

On April 16, 2018, I gave an interview on Voice of America- Amharic and gave PM Abiy my full and explained my principled support for him (translation form Amharic):

…  My view is very simple. I stand for the young people, especially Ethiopian young people. It is now over 10 years since I’ve been defending and advocating for them. I have been saying the young people need to be given a chance. Those of us in the older generation, people like myself, should get out of the game and give the young people a chance. That is because only the young people can take charge of Ethiopia’s destiny. Therefore, that the cries of the young people be heard. The young people are suffering. They have no jobs they are educated but they have no place. Pele cobblestones all day. What I’m saying is let’s Embrace these young people and March forward. My hope is, I see PM Abiy as a member of the youth generation. I believe he resonates the ideas and hopes of the youth. He has good outlook. He believes in Ethiopiawinet and unity. It brings people together. He wants to eliminate hate and bring reconciliation to the people. These are things  in my heart and which I preached for the past 13 years. I believe the  change will be good. That is why I gave PM Abiy my full support without reservations…

For the past 19 months, PM Abiy has been man of his word, a man of action, a man for all seasons.

PM Abiy has done more in 19 months than all others have done in 50 years.

Let the facts speak for themselves!

OK, Hippos! Move over. Leave the Cheetahs alone!

I have a simple message for Hippos, Wolves (in sheepskin), (daylight) Hyenas, Skunks, Snakes, Creepers and Predators prowling the political landscape in Ethiopia:

LEAVE ETHIOPIAN CHEETAHS THE HELL ALONE!

The post “OK, Hippos!”, Growled Ethiopia’s (Abo Shemanes) Cheetahs appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

Ethiopia at Risk: Radical Islam Harbored in Ethnic Extremism – Part II

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Mathewos Filipos, M.D.

This is a follow-up of my first article entitled ‘Ethiopia at Risk: Radical Islam Harbored in Ethnic Extremism’  In that article I showed how the radical Islamist Jawar Mohammed undermined  Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his democratization process and put Ethiopia at risk.  Jawar and his team members carefully orchestrated a plan to implement the demise of Ethiopia.  It was in 2016 Jawar and his team gathered and declared in what they called “Oromia National Charter” that Oromia is colonized by Ethiopia. The atrocities we see now in Ethiopia did not start now, it is carefully planned.

The piece ‘Toxic Propaganda Targeted at Ethiopia and Ethiopian Unity: the Divisive Strategies’  written in 2017 clearly shows these strategies employed to destabilize Ethiopia and establish Islamic State in Ethiopia under the cover of ethnic Oromo state.  According to the article and as it has become evident through time, the following are some of the strategies Jawar and his team executing:

  1. Creating a political movement on the basis of Islam and ethnic lines;
  2. Fighting Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity;
  3. Attacking Ethiopian unity, Ethiopian history, and everything that symbolizes Ethiopia;
  4. Using pseudo-academic discourse and misinforming and misleading the regular people; and
  5. Opposing any movement that leads to unity among Ethiopians of various backgrounds.

Since the article was written which of these strategies were not implemented?  None.

In the previous article, I tried to show how Jawar, OMN, and his team harbored their goal of establishing a radical Islamic state in Oromia and the enormous devastation they caused in Ethiopia.

Despite his rhetoric to safeguard Ethiopian unity, Prime Minister Abiy could not honor his words.  As John P. Kotter put it, “Communication comes in both words and deeds, and the latter are often the most powerful form.  Nothing undermines change more than behavior by important individuals that is inconsistent with their words.”

Prime Minister Abiy’s timidity and inaction regarding Jawar’s crimes was the major reason for his supporters to lose confidence in his leadership.  Jawar created division within the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) itself.   Can the Prime Minister restore the public trust after the merger of the EPRDF fronts?  Time will tell.

Until Jawar felt that he significantly alienated the Prime Minister from his pro-Ethiopian- unity ardent supporters, Jawar was stating that he did not have ambition for political power.  Now he did not only prove that many Ethiopians lost faith in Prime Minister Abiy’s leadership, but also he tested that he can move his clandestinely organized Quero ( Oromo youth group) any time  and block roads, mayhem innocent people  and burn churches, behead clergies, pastors, and women; dismember fathers, burn down businesses and houses.  To polarize Ethiopia’s politics further and to cause further bloodshed, Jawar announced he would give up his US citizenship and run in the 2020 election.

Jawar, at different times, on his OMN, announced to his rampaging Quero to get ready and wait for his call to take any action.  He publicly stated he could order Quero and overthrow the Abiy’s government in two days if he wanted.  Now he called for action of violence and caused the murder of 86 people in two days.

His Oromia Media Network (OMN) which is established as a not-for-profit organization in Saint Paul, MN,  is now seen in Ethiopia as Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) of Rwanda that fanned the genocide in Rwanda.  Oct 22, the Prime Minister had warned against media owners fomenting unrest.  Jawar immediately replied on his Facebook that he had gotten ready for it.  (እኛም አዉቀናል ጉድጓድ ምሰናል።) Then Jawar sent messages to his Quro and supporters stating that his security detail would be removed and his life would be endangered.  An hour later, hundreds of rioting young people surrounded his home in Addis Ababa.  Roads including major highways were blocked by Quero in many areas in Oromia and including the outskirts of Addis Ababa.

Following jawar’s call, the Prime Minister reported, in about two days, 86 people were killed.   From these 76 of them were heinously murdered with machete and stone by terrorizing youth.   The barbaric Quero carried out what cannot be imagined with a normal mind. Many of the atrocities are too graphic to mention them here.  They killed and dismembered a father, killed clergies, burned churches, beheaded pastors.  Then Jawar sent a message in public to Quero to open roads and they somewhat complied with his order. Doing so he was proving to the public what he said earlier “In Ethiopia, there are two governments– one is that of Quero and the other that of Abiy Ahmed.”  All this murder happened less than two weeks after Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Following the killing of two university students at Woldya University, which should be condemned unequivocally, Jawar’s team members, Dr. Ezekiel Gebissa of Kettering University in Michigan and Dr. Etana Habte appeared on what they recently established Kush Media Network instigated ethnic violence.  They had seemingly scholarly discussion but incited further violence.  The pompous Dr. Ezekiel Gebissa repeatedly lies on the media and fabricate numbers. He is the shame of his students and the employer.   He stated 50% of Ethiopia’s population is Oromo.  Cannot Dr. Gabissa research simple facts that Oromo is 34.4% of Ethiopia’s population.  Please prove me wrong if you have alternative facts.  This is unethical and deliberate misinformation to deepen ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia.   This is what he gives back to Ethiopia his country of origin, one of the poorest nations in the world – inciting ethnic strife.  They called for action of violence against non-Oromos and Orthodox churches.  Ethiopians are deeply religious societies when Christians including university students persecuted they sought shelter in Churches.  Dr.  Gabissa labeled the Orthodox church as a hiding place for criminals and encouraged Quero to attack Orthodox Christians and those who shelter there.  Then the Quero murdered a helpless nursing mother in front of her newborn infant, burned Churches and university students singled by their ethnicity and killed.  One university student is thrown out from a dormitory through the window.  Many more people killed in the last few weeks.  These instigators and criminals like Dr. Ezekiel Gebissa,  Dr. Habte, Tsegaye Ararssa, and Jawar Mohammed have been given shelter and live comfortably in the US, Australia, and Europe. This group has also launched campaign working with foreign radical Islamists to wage war against ethnic Amhara and Ethiopian Orthodox Christians.  A case in point is their network with Farah Maalim, who used to serve as  Deputy Speaker of Kenya National Assembly.

Many Ethiopians were shocked thus far that Prime Minister Abiy and his government did not take any legal action on Jawar and these other masterminds.   Can Jawar get away with his crimes both in Ethiopia and the US?  What is terrorism if encouraging people to behead Christians is not? What is the number of the death toll that qualifies a person to be a terrorist?  In his speech which is available on YouTube, Jawar identified Ethiopian Oromos with Islam and encouraged Oromo Muslims to behead Christians and control political power. His Quero lynched young man.  His gruesome atrocities continued day after day. The Ethiopian patriarch was shedding his tears in public that became hapless and the Abiy’s government was not helping.  Ethiopia is at risk of becoming another Rwanda. The world community should take action.

According to the US law, ‘Renouncing U.S. citizenship does not allow persons to avoid possible prosecution for crimes which they may have committed or may commit in the future which violate United States law, or escape the repayment of financial obligations including child support payments, previously incurred in the United States or incurred as United States citizens abroad.”

Jawar Mohammed and Dr. Ezekiel Gebissa are enjoying a safe haven in the US while their actions and OMN are causing hundreds of deaths.  Should not the US government investigate and try Jawar Mohammed for the crimes he committed?   This is what peace-loving Ethiopians around the world demand.

 

The post Ethiopia at Risk: Radical Islam Harbored in Ethnic Extremism – Part II appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

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